The Messenger Matters: Race, Party, and the Perception Of
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THE MESSENGER MATTERS: RACE, PARTY, AND THE PERCEPTION OF CANDIDATES BY WHITE AND NON-WHITE VOTERS by CHASE B. MEYER (Under the Direction of Ryan Bakker) ABSTRACT This dissertation examines the impact that race has on voter’s support for different candidates and political parties, as well as their perceptions of the different candidates and parties. This dissertation attempts to answer if the race of the candidate running for office impact’s how voters of different races perceive the candidate and vote for the candidate/the candidate’s party. I determine that the race of the candidate matters and that the race of the candidate provides an ideological cue to voters about where the candidate stands on issues. If a candidate is white or non-white it provides a different message to voters regarding where the candidate stands on issues, specifically race-based issues. However, these perceptions can be overcome by candidates and only occur in countries where race is a prominent dimension for political competition. INDEX WORDS: Race and Politics, Ideology, Heuristic Cues ii THE MESSENGER MATTERS: RACE, PARTY, AND THE PERCEPTIONS OF CANDIDATES BY WHITE AND NON-WHITE VOTERS by CHASE B. MEYER B.A., The University of Texas at Austin, 2009 M.A., American University, 2011 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY ATHENS, GEORGIA 2017 iii © 2017 Chase B. Meyer All Rights Reserved iv THE MESSENGER MATTERS: RACE, PARTY, AND THE PERCEPTIONS OF CANDIDATES BY WHITE AND NON-WHITE VOTERS by CHASE B. MEYER Major Professor: Ryan Bakker Committee: Jamie Monogan M.V. Hood III Shane Singh Electronic Version Approved: Suzanne Barbour Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia May 2017 iv ACKOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge several individuals whose help and support have been critical to the writing and completion of this dissertation. First and foremost I would like to thank my chair Dr. Ryan Bakker for his guidance and support, not just on this dissertation but for my entire time as a doctoral student at the University of Georgia. I will forever be thankful for his instruction and support from the moment I arrived at the University of Georgia. I would also like to acknowledge my other committee members as well as other faculty members at both the University of Georgia and other universities I have attended. Dr. Jamie Monogan, Dr. M.V. Hood III, and Dr. Shane Singh have all been incredible mentors in guiding me through this dissertation. Learning under these incredible and dedicated scholars have made me a better political scientist than I ever could have imagined. I also would like to acknowledge other professors who guided me during my time as a doctoral student, including Dr. Michael Lynch, Dr. James Adams, and Dr. Jamie Carson for their courses and feedback they have given me over the past few years in both California and in Georgia. This dissertation was made possible thanks to the help of numerous scholars and professors, but I would be remiss not to point out the professor who first planted the seed of this dissertation in my mind, Dr. Sean Theriault at the University of Texas, who first had me question the impact a non-white candidate might have on vote choice back in 2006. I also could not possibly have completed this dissertation without the support from v my family, my friends, my fellow graduate students, and Dr. Kait Boyle who helped push me across the finish line in finishing this project. I cannot thank you all enough, and you are all in my thoughts, I owe you all a tremendous debt of gratitude. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...............................................................................................iv CHAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................1 2 THE ROLE OF RACE IN CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS: HOW A VOTER’S RACE IMPACTS PERCEPTIONS OF WHITE AND NON-WHITE CANDIDATES ...........................................7 Abstract .......................................................................................................8 Introduction .................................................................................................8 Previous Literature ....................................................................................10 Theory and Hypotheses .............................................................................14 Data and Methods .....................................................................................20 Results .......................................................................................................25 Discussion .................................................................................................33 3 CANDIDATE POSITIONS IN BLACK AND WHITE: THE IMPACT OF A CANDIDATE’S RACE AND ISSUE POSITIONS ON VOTER PERCEPTIONS .......................................36 Abstract .....................................................................................................37 Introduction ...............................................................................................37 Non-White Candidates ..............................................................................40 vii Heuristic Cues and Race-Based Issues .....................................................41 Data and Methods .....................................................................................45 Results .......................................................................................................49 Discussion .................................................................................................53 4 THE DIMENSION OF RACE IN POLITICAL COMPETITION IN CANADA ......................................................................57 Abstract .....................................................................................................58 Introduction ...............................................................................................58 Previous Literature ....................................................................................60 Theory and Hypotheses .............................................................................63 Data and Methods .....................................................................................65 Results .......................................................................................................67 Discussion .................................................................................................73 5 CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................75 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................81 TABLES AND FIGURES ................................................................................................89 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................110 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION At the 2016 Republican National Convention held in Cleveland, Ohio, a remarkable event occurred. As the 2,472 convention delegates cast their votes, an overwhelming majority voted for Donald Trump but many delegates cast their votes for Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson. In fact, these three candidates earned the votes of 24.84% of the delegates. What makes this event remarkable is that this was the most votes ever won by racial and ethnic minority candidates at the Republican Convention. Previous non-white Republican Presidential candidates, such as Alan Keyes in 1992, 1996, and 2000, earned far less than 1% of the Convention vote. This increased vote share for minority Republican Presidential candidates occurs at a time when the non-white population in America is growing far faster than the white majority. In 1990 Hawaii was the only state that was less than 50% non-Hispanic white, three states were less than 60% non-Hispanic white, and a grand total of sixteen states were over 90% non-Hispanic white. Since 1990 America has become increasingly diverse and increasingly less white. Compare those 1990 numbers to 2012 when only four states were greater than 90% non-Hispanic white, thirteen states were less than 60% non-Hispanic white, and in four states non-Hispanic whites were less than 50% of the population. This increased diversity in America has been reflected in the composition of our elected officials as well as the candidates who run for elected office. As our country 2 becomes more diverse, it is only natural that the people elected to office will reflect this diversity. A grand total of nine African-Americans have served in the US Senate since our founding, six of which did not start serving until after 1990, and five of which did not start serving until 2005. This same trend is also present for Latinos serving in the Senate. A total of eleven Senators have identified as Latinos, six of which did not start serving until 2003. This trend of greater diversity in elected officials and candidates is present in both parties as Democrats elected Barack Obama to the White House in 2008 and 2012 as well as the campaigns of Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson in 2016. This growing racial diversity is not unique to the United States, as the neighbor to the north, Canada, is experiencing a similar demographic trend. According to Canada’s 2011 Census 19.1% of all Canadians