The Long-Term Human Toll of Natural Disasters: A Study of Fetal Exposure to the 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak Sok Chul Hong* Dongyoung Kim† Eutteum Lee‡ Abstract This study investigates the long-term effect of fetal exposure to the 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak on health and socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood. Using the 2008-2014 American Community Survey and a difference-in-differences framework, we estimate that, in the 30s, this stressful in-utero shock increases the probability of vision/hearing difficulty by 17 percent and cognitive difficulty by 8 percent, and lowers the socioeconomic status by 1 percent compared with unaffected cohorts. An estimate implies that the annual income loss from disaster- driven health problems was $136 million in 2014. Keywords: natural disaster; fetal exposure; the 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak; sensory difficulty; cognitive difficulty; socioeconomic status; long-term cost of natural disaster JEL codes: I15, O10, Q5 * Corresponding Author, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea (e-mail:
[email protected]) † Department of Economics, Sogang University, 35 Baekbeom-ro, Mapo-gu, Seoul, 04107, Republic of Korea (e-mail:
[email protected]) ‡ Department of Economics, Sogang University, 35 Baekbeom-ro, Mapo-gu, Seoul, 04107, Republic of Korea (e-mail:
[email protected]). Research reported in this article was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2016S1A3A2924944) and the Institute of Economic Research (Center for Distributive Justice) at Seoul National University. 1 Although forecasting technologies have improved substantially, the occurrence of natural disasters is still unpredictable in many cases, and the tremendous damage is difficult to avoid despite forethought.