2014 Shareholders Report
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Article a Climatological Perspective on the 2011 Alabama Tornado
Chaney, P. L., J. Herbert, and A. Curtis, 2013: A climatological perspective on the 2011 Alabama tornado outbreak. J. Operational Meteor., 1 (3), 1925, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2013.0103. Journal of Operational Meteorology Article A Climatological Perspective on the 2011 Alabama Tornado Outbreak PHILIP L. CHANEY Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama JONATHAN HERBERT and AMY CURTIS Jacksonville State University, Jacksonville, Alabama (Manuscript received 23 January 2012; in final form 17 September 2012) ABSTRACT This paper presents a comparison of the recent 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak with a tornado climatology for the state of Alabama. The climatology for Alabama is based on tornadoes that affected the state during the 19812010 period. A county-level risk index is produced from this climatology. Tornado tracks from the 2011 outbreak are mapped and compared with the climatology and risk index. There were 62 tornadoes in Alabama on 27 April 2011, including many long-track and intense tornadoes. The event resulted in 248 deaths in the state. The 2011 outbreak is also compared with the April 1974 tornado outbreak in Alabama. 1. Introduction population density (Gagan et al. 2010; Dixon et al. 2011). Tornadoes have been documented in every state in Alabama is affected in the spring and fall by the United States and on every continent except midlatitude cyclones, often associated with severe Antarctica. The United States has by far the most weather and tornadoes. During summer and fall tornado reports annually of any country, averaging tornadoes also can be produced by tropical cyclones. A about 1,300 yr-1. -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
Another Look at the 11 April 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak
Central Region Technical Attachment Number 15-02 December 2015 Another Look at the 11 April 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak JON CHAMBERLAIN National Weather Service, Rapid City, South Dakota ABSTRACT The 11 April 1965 tornado outbreak was one of the most devastating tornado outbreaks in recorded history, affecting six Midwestern states with significant loss of life and property. This storm system was particularly interesting for the number of discrete tornadic supercells in the southern Great Lakes, especially given the number of F3+ tornadoes. In addition, many supercells were observed to contain multiple funnels and multiple tornado cyclones (some occurring simultaneously). Dr. Theodore Fujita performed a comprehensive analysis of this event in the late 1960s, featuring a detailed analysis of both the meteorology and tornado damage paths. However, technology and science have progressed much between 1970 and 2015, with new forecast parameters and techniques available to forecasters. The Palm Sunday Outbreak of 1965 was re-examined using modern-day severe weather forecast parameters derived from observational data to help understand why this storm system produced such violent thunderstorms, particularly across extreme northern Indiana. In order to do this, approximately 200 handwritten surface observations were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center’s Electronic Digital Archive Data System web interface. Once these observations were put into a database, several surface weather maps, synthetic soundings, hodographs, and upper-level analyses were constructed. These data, along with archived upper-air data, were used to calculate several severe weather forecast parameters, which truly revealed the magnitude of the event. 1. Introduction The 11 April 1965 tornado outbreak was one of the most devastating tornado outbreaks in recorded history. -
U.S. Violent Tornadoes Relative to the Position of the 850-Mb
U.S. VIOLENT TORNADOES RELATIVE TO THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB JET Chris Broyles1, Corey K. Potvin 2, Casey Crosbie3, Robert M. Rabin4, Patrick Skinner5 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 2 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma 3 NOAA/NWS/CWSU, Indianapolis, Indiana 4 National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma 5 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma Abstract The Violent Tornado Webpage from the Storm Prediction Center has been used to obtain data for 182 events (404 violent tornadoes) in which an F4-F5 or EF4-EF5 tornado occurred in the United States from 1950 to 2014. The position of each violent tornado was recorded on a gridded plot compared to the 850 mb jet center within 90 minutes of the violent tornado. The position of each 850 mb jet was determined using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2014 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis from 1950 to 1978. Plots are shown of the position of each violent tornado relative to the center of the 850 mb low-level jet. The United States was divided into four parts and the plots are available for the southern Plains, northern Plains, northeastern U.S. and southeastern U.S with a division between east and west at the Mississippi River. Great Plains violent tornadoes clustered around a center about 130 statute miles to the left and slightly ahead of the low-level jet center while eastern U.S. -
The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States
Minnesota State University, Mankato Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects 2013 The ducE ational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States Paul R. Zunkel Minnesota State University - Mankato Follow this and additional works at: http://cornerstone.lib.mnsu.edu/etds Part of the Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Zunkel, Paul R., "The ducaE tional Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States" (2013). Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects. Paper 140. This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States By Paul Zunkel A Thesis Submitted in partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for Master of Science Degree in Geography Minnesota State University, Mankato Mankato, Minnesota May 2013 5 April, 2013 This thesis has been examined and approved. Examining Committee: Dr. Forrest Wilkerson, Chairperson Dr. Ginger Schmid Dr. Cynthia Miller ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research paper is dedicated to Mrs. Hope Hislop. Thank you for all the years of guidance, encouragement, and advice about following my dreams and pursuing my passions. No one could ask for a better grandmother. -
1974 Tornado Super Outbreak Report
Analysis and Reconstruction of the 1974 Tornado Super Outbreak RMS Special Report TM Risk Management Solutions I NTRODUCTION The Super Outbreak of tornadoes that occurred on April 3-4, 1974 was the most intense and widespread tornado outbreak in recorded history. In total, 148 tornadoes spanned 13 states producing about 900 square miles (2331 square km) of tornado damage in less than 18 hours. This report reviews the event’s meteorological and damage characteristics, describes the impact subsequent research had on tornado risk models, and examines the property losses possible if the outbreak were to occur today. 1 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak Copyright 2004 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. April 2, 2004 M ETEOROLOGICAL C HARACTERISTICS Looking back, the atmospheric characteristics preceding the super outbreak provided clear evidence of the high potential for widespread tornado development. On the evening of April 2, 1974 a deep area of low pressure (983 millibars) over the Colorado-Kansas border created strong winds blowing from the south over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This forced high-humidity air northward from the Gulf of Mexico to the lower Midwest and Ohio Valley states. This moist layer of air was “capped” by warm, dry air, which limited thunderstorm development and created highly unstable atmospheric conditions. Recognizing this, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued preliminary severe weather alerts on the morning of April 2 for much of the central and southern plains states. During the morning of April 3, the center of low pressure moved northeastward to the Iowa- Illinois border. As the air warmed up during the day and winds converged near the ground, an explosive and sudden outbreak of thunderstorms developed around 2:00 pm Central Daylight Time (CDT). -
Observational Analysis of the Interaction Between a Baroclinic Boundary and Supercell Storms on 27 April 2011
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND SUPERCELL STORMS ON 27 APRIL 2011 by ADAM THOMAS SHERRER A THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Atmospheric Science to The School of Graduate Studies of The University of Alabama in Huntsville HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA 2014 ABSTRACT The School of Graduate Studies The University of Alabama in Huntsville Degree Master of Science College/Dept. Science/Atmospheric Science Name of Candidate Adam Sherrer Title Observational Analysis of the Interaction Between a Baroclinic Boundary and Supercell Storms on 27 April 2011 A thermal boundary developed during the morning to early afternoon hours on 27 April as a result of rainfall evaporation and shading from reoccurring deep convection. This boundary propagated to the north during the late afternoon to evening hours. The presence of the boundary produced an area more conducive for the formation of strong violent tornadoes through several processes. These processes included the production of horizontally generated baroclinic vorticity, increased values in storm- relative helicity, and decreasing lifting condensation level heights. Five supercell storms formed near and/or propagated alongside this boundary. Supercells that interacted with this boundary typically produced significant tornadic damage over long distances. Two of these supercells formed to the south (warm) side of the boundary and produced a tornado prior to crossing to the north (cool) side of the boundary. These two storms exhibited changes in appearance, intensity, and structure. Two other supercells formed well south of the boundary. These two storms remained relatively weak until they interacted with the boundary. -
AC Rebuttals Tornadoes 042621
Claim: Global warming is causing more and stronger tornadoes REBUTTAL Tornadoes are failing to follow “global warming” based predictions. Strong tornadoes have seen a drop in frequency since the 1950s. The years 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 all saw below average to near record low tornado counts in the U.S. since records began in 1954. 2017 rebounded only to the long-term mean while 2018 activity has returned to well below the 25th percentile. This lull followed a very active and deadly strong La Nina of 2010/11, which like the strong La Nina of 1973/74 produced record setting and very deadly outbreaks of tornadoes. When an amplified La Nina like jet stream pattern developed in the spring of 2019, a very active period raised the seasonal total to above the 50th percentile for the first time in years. A similar transient pattern in April 2019 produced a major outbreak centered on Easter Sunday. Population growth and expansion outside urban areas have exposed more people to the tornadoes that once roared through open fields. Tornado detection improved with the addition of Doppler radar (NEXRAD), the growth of the trained spotter networks, storm chasers armed with cellular data and imagery as well as the proliferation of cell phone cameras and social media. This shows up most in the weak EF0 tornado count but for storms from moderate EF1 to strong EF 3+ intensity, the trend has been down despite improved detection. Tornadoes like most all weather extremes are driven by natural factors with active seasons strongly correlated with stronger La Nina events and the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which favors more frequent and stronger La Ninas. -
Storm Observation
Storm Observation The Basics of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes By Ethan Schisler Introduction • About Me: • Storm Chasing since 2003 • Have chased from Montana to Florida • Observed over 100 tornadoes • Several strong hurricanes • Blizzards • Ice Storms Goal: Minimize the risks and maximize the positives Introduction • Storm Observation Can Be: • Exciting • Rewarding • Awe Inspiring • Fun • And Informative • Storm Observation Can Also Be…. • Dangerous • Time Consuming • And even costly….. Goal: Minimize the risks and maximize the positives • EF0 to EF5 • EF0 – 60-85 mph • EF1 – 86-110 mph • EF2 – 111-135 mph • EF3 – 136-165 mph • EF4 – 166-200 mph • EF5 – 200+ mph Enhanced Fujita Scale Why Storm Spotting? • Limitations in Doppler Radar • Warning Verification • To gain additional knowledge July 19 2018: Marshalltown, IA -Large EF-3 Tornado impacts town -Up to 43 minutes lead time -Only minor injuries and no deaths –Attributed to advanced warning, radar, and storm spotters! Storm Observation: Equipment • Cell phone/computer with radar application • Radarscope (Iphone, Mac, Windows); PYKL3 (Android); GR Level 3 (Windows) • Reliable vehicle to get from point A to point B • A partner to navigate • Stay distraction free while driving to the target area or storms • Video camera or still camera for documentation • Road maps and weather radio • Cell phone data can be sketchy in rural areas…have a backup plan • Marginal Risk • Slight Risk • Moderate Risk • High Risk Storm Prediction Center Outlooks Basics of Storm Development • Instability • -
Louisville, Kentucky
National Weather Service Photo: Wade Bell, Leavenworth, Indiana Louisville, Kentucky Welcome Welcome to the eleventh edition of National Weather Service (NWS) Louisville’s Shareholders Report. You are a shareholder in the NWS! This report details the activities of NWS Louisville in our area of responsibility across southern Indiana and central Kentucky during 2015. From our perspective, 2015 will be remembered for three weeks toward the end of the winter season with plenty of cold and snow. The worst storm struck March 4-5, which is summarized at weather.gov/lmk/march_2015_flood_and_snowstorm. One month later, on April 3-10, during a lengthy period of severe weather and flash flooding, we provided onsite weather support for a six-alarm fire at the General Electric (GE) plant in Louisville (weather.gov/lmk/April_3_10_2015_SevereEvents). Our top four highlights of 2015 were: • Instituting a new online storm spotter class, weather.gov/lmk/onlineskywarn • Two new educational videos about winter weather, posted on our YouTube channel • A major upgrade to the computer system we use for forecasts and warnings • When the Doppler radar at Fort Knox had mechanical troubles during a severe weather outbreak on December 23, Electronics Technician Todd Adkins stayed with the radar and kept it operating until the severe weather threat was over. Todd then fixed the radar on Christmas Day when the needed parts arrived. The NWS was appropriated $1.06 billion for Fiscal Year 2015, which was an investment of $3.30 per American. As the leader of NWS Louisville, I feel it is my duty to report to you how your holdings have fared. -
Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation David L
Geography Compass 2/1 (2008): 30–66, 10.1111/j.1749-8198.2007.00069.x SevereBlackwOxford,GECOGeography17©J06910.Oct030???66???Origournal 49-819820071111/jober inal deepell ComT UK2007Art.he17 Publishing Com icles 49-8Autmoist pilatho pass 198io rconvective n .©2007 Lt 2007d .00069. Blackw stormsx ell Publishing Ltd Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation David L. Arnold* Department of Geography, Frostburg State University Abstract Small-scale (2–20 km) circulations, termed ‘severe deep moist convective storms’, account for a disproportionate share of the world’s insured weather-related losses. Spatial frequency maximums of severe convective events occur in South Africa, India, Mexico, the Caucasus, and Great Plains/Prairies region of North America, where the maximum tornado frequency occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. Interest in forecasting severe deep moist convective systems, especially those that produce tornadoes, dates to 1884 when tornado alerts were first provided in the central United States. Modern thunderstorm and tornado forecasting relies on technology and theory, but in the post-World War II era interest in forecasting has also been driven by public pressure. The forecasting process begins with a diagnostic analysis, in which the forecaster considers the potential of the atmos- pheric environment to produce severe convective storms (which requires knowl- edge of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic fields, and the character of the land surface over which the storms will pass), and the likely character of the storms that may develop. Improvements in forecasting will likely depend on technological advancements, such as the development of phased-array radar sys- tems and finer resolution numerical weather prediction models. -
Tornado Basics
TORNADO BASICS NOAA/National Weather Service Tornado FAQ What is a tornado? According to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a tornado is "a violently rotating column of air, pendant from a cumuliform cloud or underneath a cumuliform cloud, and often (but not always) visible as a funnel cloud." Literally, in order for a vortex to be classified as a tornado, it must be in contact with the ground and the cloud base. Weather scientists haven't found it so simple in practice, however, to classify and define tornadoes. For example, the difference is unclear between an strong mesocyclone (parent thunderstorm circulation) on the ground, and a large, weak tornado. There is also disagreement as to whether separate touchdowns of the same funnel constitute separate tornadoes. It is well- known that a tornado may not have a visible funnel. Also, at what wind speed of the cloud-to-ground vortex does a tornado begin? How close must two or more different tornadic circulations become to qualify as a one multiple-vortex tornado, instead of separate tornadoes? There are no firm answers. BACK UP TO THE TOP How do tornadoes form? The classic answer -- "warm moist Gulf air meets cold Canadian air and dry air from the Rockies" -- is a gross oversimplification. Many thunderstorms form under those conditions (near warm fronts, cold fronts and drylines respectively), which never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even when the large-scale environment is extremely favorable for tornadic thunderstorms, as in an SPC "High Risk" outlook, not every thunderstorm spawns a tornado. The truth is that we don't fully understand.