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Quantifying the Impact of Synoptic Weather Types and Patterns On
1 Quantifying the impact of synoptic weather types and patterns 2 on energy fluxes of a marginal snowpack 3 Andrew Schwartz1, Hamish McGowan1, Alison Theobald2, Nik Callow3 4 1Atmospheric Observations Research Group, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia 5 2Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Government, Brisbane, 4000, Australia 6 3School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, 6009, Australia 7 8 Correspondence to: Andrew J. Schwartz ([email protected]) 9 10 Abstract. 11 Synoptic weather patterns are investigated for their impact on energy fluxes driving melt of a marginal snowpack 12 in the Snowy Mountains, southeast Australia. K-means clustering applied to ECMWF ERA-Interim data identified 13 common synoptic types and patterns that were then associated with in-situ snowpack energy flux measurements. 14 The analysis showed that the largest contribution of energy to the snowpack occurred immediately prior to the 15 passage of cold fronts through increased sensible heat flux as a result of warm air advection (WAA) ahead of the 16 front. Shortwave radiation was found to be the dominant control on positive energy fluxes when individual 17 synoptic weather types were examined. As a result, cloud cover related to each synoptic type was shown to be 18 highly influential on the energy fluxes to the snowpack through its reduction of shortwave radiation and 19 reflection/emission of longwave fluxes. As single-site energy balance measurements of the snowpack were used 20 for this study, caution should be exercised before applying the results to the broader Australian Alps region. 21 However, this research is an important step towards understanding changes in surface energy flux as a result of 22 shifts to the global atmospheric circulation as anthropogenic climate change continues to impact marginal winter 23 snowpacks. -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
The Interactions Between a Midlatitude Blocking Anticyclone and Synoptic-Scale Cyclones That Occurred During the Summer Season
502 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 126 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE The Interactions between a Midlatitude Blocking Anticyclone and Synoptic-Scale Cyclones That Occurred during the Summer Season ANTHONY R. LUPO AND PHILLIP J. SMITH Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 20 September 1996 and 2 May 1997 ABSTRACT Using the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres Goddard Earth Observing System 5-yr analyses and the Zwack±Okossi equation as the diagnostic tool, the horizontal distribution of the dynamic and thermodynamic forcing processes contributing to the maintenance of a Northern Hemisphere midlatitude blocking anticyclone that occurred during the summer season were examined. During the development of this blocking anticyclone, vorticity advection, supported by temperature advection, forced 500-hPa height rises at the block center. Vorticity advection and vorticity tilting were also consistent contributors to height rises during the entire life cycle. Boundary layer friction, vertical advection of vorticity, and ageostrophic vorticity tendencies (during decay) consistently opposed block development. Additionally, an analysis of this blocking event also showed that upstream precursor surface cyclones were not only important in block development but in block maintenance as well. In partitioning the basic data ®elds into their planetary-scale (P) and synoptic-scale (S) components, 500-hPa height tendencies forced by processes on each scale, as well as by interactions (I) between each scale, were also calculated. Over the lifetime of this blocking event, the S and P processes were most prominent in the blocked region. During the formation of this block, the I component was the largest and most consistent contributor to height rises at the center point. -
Mesoscale Convective Systems and Their Synoptic-Scale Environment in Finland
182 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 30 Mesoscale Convective Systems and Their Synoptic-Scale Environment in Finland ARI-JUHANI PUNKKA Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland MARJA BISTER Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland (Manuscript received 9 December 2013, in final form 14 October 2014) ABSTRACT The environments within which high-latitude intense and nonintense mesoscale convective systems (iMCSs and niMCSs) and smaller thunderstorm clusters (sub-MCSs) develop were studied using proximity soundings. MCS statistics covering 8 years were created by analyzing composite radar imagery. One-third of all systems were intense in Finland and the frequency of MCSs was highest in July. On average, MCSs had a duration of 10.8 h and traveled toward the northeast. Many of the linear MCSs had a southwest–northeast line orienta- tion. Interestingly, a few MCSs were observed to travel toward the west, which is a geographically specific feature of the MCS characteristics. The midlevel lapse rate failed to distinguish the environments of the different event types from each other. However, in MCSs, CAPE and the low-level mixing ratio were higher, the deep-layer-mean wind was stronger, and the lifting condensation level (LCL) was lower than in sub- MCSs. CAPE, low-level mixing ratio, and LCL height were the best discriminators between iMCSs and niMCSs. The mean wind over deep layers distinguished the severe wind–producing events from the nonsevere events better than did the vertical equivalent potential temperature difference or the wind shear in shallow layers. No evidence was found to support the hypothesis that dry air at low- and midlevels would increase the likelihood of severe convective winds. -
An Examination of the Mechanisms and Environments Supportive of Bow Echo Mesovortex Genesis
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Dissertations & Theses in Earth and Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Department Atmospheric Sciences of 5-2013 An Examination of the Mechanisms and Environments Supportive of Bow Echo Mesovortex Genesis George Limpert University of Nebraska-Lincoln, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/geoscidiss Part of the Atmospheric Sciences Commons, and the Meteorology Commons Limpert, George, "An Examination of the Mechanisms and Environments Supportive of Bow Echo Mesovortex Genesis" (2013). Dissertations & Theses in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. 39. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/geoscidiss/39 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations & Theses in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. AN EXAMINATION OF THE MECHANISMS AND ENVIRONMENTS SUPPORTIVE OF BOW ECHO MESOVORTEX GENESIS by George Limpert A DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Major: Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Under the Supervision of Professor Adam Houston Lincoln, Nebraska May, 2013 AN EXAMINATION OF THE MECHANISMS AND ENVIRONMENTS SUPPORTIVE OF BOW ECHO MESOVORTEX GENESIS George Limpert, Ph.D. University of Nebraska, 2013 Adviser: Adam Houston Low-level mesovortices are associated with enhanced surface wind gusts and high-end wind damage in quasi-linear thunderstorms. Although damage associated with mesovortices can approach that of moderately strong tornadoes, skill in forecasting mesovortices is low. -
The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States
Minnesota State University, Mankato Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects 2013 The ducE ational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States Paul R. Zunkel Minnesota State University - Mankato Follow this and additional works at: http://cornerstone.lib.mnsu.edu/etds Part of the Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Zunkel, Paul R., "The ducaE tional Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States" (2013). Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects. Paper 140. This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States By Paul Zunkel A Thesis Submitted in partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for Master of Science Degree in Geography Minnesota State University, Mankato Mankato, Minnesota May 2013 5 April, 2013 This thesis has been examined and approved. Examining Committee: Dr. Forrest Wilkerson, Chairperson Dr. Ginger Schmid Dr. Cynthia Miller ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research paper is dedicated to Mrs. Hope Hislop. Thank you for all the years of guidance, encouragement, and advice about following my dreams and pursuing my passions. No one could ask for a better grandmother. -
CIMMS Annual Report FY08
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies Annual Report Prepared for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Cooperative Agreement NA16OAR4320115 Fiscal Year – 2017 1 Cover image – Images from the Hazard Services – Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) 2017 spring experiment in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed, including various forecaster and researcher interactions with the software and during group discussions. Also shown is a screen capture of the HS-PHI application, showing probabilistic tornado “plumes” for a Quasi- Linear Convective System (QLCS). For more on this project, “Hazard Services – Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI)”, involving Greg Stumpf (CIMMS at OST/MDL/DAB) and Tiffany Meyers (CIMMS at NSSL), see pages 143-145. 2 Table of Contents Introduction 4 General Description of CIMMS and its Core Activities 4 Management of CIMMS, including Mission and Vision Statements, and Organizational Structure 5 Executive Summary Listing of Activities during FY2017 6 Distribution of NOAA Funding by CIMMS Task and Research Theme 11 CIMMS Executive Board and Assembly of Fellows Meeting Dates and Membership 12 General Description of Task I Expenditures 14 Research Performance 15 Theme 1 – Weather Radar Research and Development 15 Theme 2 – Stormscale and Mesoscale Modeling Research and Development 55 Theme 3 – Forecast and Warning Improvements Research and Development 104 Theme 4 – Impacts of Climate Change Related to Extreme Weather Events 176 Theme 5 – -
Storm Observation
Storm Observation The Basics of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes By Ethan Schisler Introduction • About Me: • Storm Chasing since 2003 • Have chased from Montana to Florida • Observed over 100 tornadoes • Several strong hurricanes • Blizzards • Ice Storms Goal: Minimize the risks and maximize the positives Introduction • Storm Observation Can Be: • Exciting • Rewarding • Awe Inspiring • Fun • And Informative • Storm Observation Can Also Be…. • Dangerous • Time Consuming • And even costly….. Goal: Minimize the risks and maximize the positives • EF0 to EF5 • EF0 – 60-85 mph • EF1 – 86-110 mph • EF2 – 111-135 mph • EF3 – 136-165 mph • EF4 – 166-200 mph • EF5 – 200+ mph Enhanced Fujita Scale Why Storm Spotting? • Limitations in Doppler Radar • Warning Verification • To gain additional knowledge July 19 2018: Marshalltown, IA -Large EF-3 Tornado impacts town -Up to 43 minutes lead time -Only minor injuries and no deaths –Attributed to advanced warning, radar, and storm spotters! Storm Observation: Equipment • Cell phone/computer with radar application • Radarscope (Iphone, Mac, Windows); PYKL3 (Android); GR Level 3 (Windows) • Reliable vehicle to get from point A to point B • A partner to navigate • Stay distraction free while driving to the target area or storms • Video camera or still camera for documentation • Road maps and weather radio • Cell phone data can be sketchy in rural areas…have a backup plan • Marginal Risk • Slight Risk • Moderate Risk • High Risk Storm Prediction Center Outlooks Basics of Storm Development • Instability • -
Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation David L
Geography Compass 2/1 (2008): 30–66, 10.1111/j.1749-8198.2007.00069.x SevereBlackwOxford,GECOGeography17©J06910.Oct030???66???Origournal 49-819820071111/jober inal deepell ComT UK2007Art.he17 Publishing Com icles 49-8Autmoist pilatho pass 198io rconvective n .©2007 Lt 2007d .00069. Blackw stormsx ell Publishing Ltd Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation David L. Arnold* Department of Geography, Frostburg State University Abstract Small-scale (2–20 km) circulations, termed ‘severe deep moist convective storms’, account for a disproportionate share of the world’s insured weather-related losses. Spatial frequency maximums of severe convective events occur in South Africa, India, Mexico, the Caucasus, and Great Plains/Prairies region of North America, where the maximum tornado frequency occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. Interest in forecasting severe deep moist convective systems, especially those that produce tornadoes, dates to 1884 when tornado alerts were first provided in the central United States. Modern thunderstorm and tornado forecasting relies on technology and theory, but in the post-World War II era interest in forecasting has also been driven by public pressure. The forecasting process begins with a diagnostic analysis, in which the forecaster considers the potential of the atmos- pheric environment to produce severe convective storms (which requires knowl- edge of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic fields, and the character of the land surface over which the storms will pass), and the likely character of the storms that may develop. Improvements in forecasting will likely depend on technological advancements, such as the development of phased-array radar sys- tems and finer resolution numerical weather prediction models. -
Tornado Basics
TORNADO BASICS NOAA/National Weather Service Tornado FAQ What is a tornado? According to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a tornado is "a violently rotating column of air, pendant from a cumuliform cloud or underneath a cumuliform cloud, and often (but not always) visible as a funnel cloud." Literally, in order for a vortex to be classified as a tornado, it must be in contact with the ground and the cloud base. Weather scientists haven't found it so simple in practice, however, to classify and define tornadoes. For example, the difference is unclear between an strong mesocyclone (parent thunderstorm circulation) on the ground, and a large, weak tornado. There is also disagreement as to whether separate touchdowns of the same funnel constitute separate tornadoes. It is well- known that a tornado may not have a visible funnel. Also, at what wind speed of the cloud-to-ground vortex does a tornado begin? How close must two or more different tornadic circulations become to qualify as a one multiple-vortex tornado, instead of separate tornadoes? There are no firm answers. BACK UP TO THE TOP How do tornadoes form? The classic answer -- "warm moist Gulf air meets cold Canadian air and dry air from the Rockies" -- is a gross oversimplification. Many thunderstorms form under those conditions (near warm fronts, cold fronts and drylines respectively), which never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even when the large-scale environment is extremely favorable for tornadic thunderstorms, as in an SPC "High Risk" outlook, not every thunderstorm spawns a tornado. The truth is that we don't fully understand. -
Remote Sensing Observations of Thunderstorm Features in Latvia
Environmental and Climate Technologies Dec. 2017, vol. 21, pp. 28–46 doi: 10.1515/rtuect-2017-0014 https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/rtuect Remote Sensing Observations of Thunderstorm Features in Latvia Zanita AVOTNIECE1*, Agrita BRIEDE2, Maris KLAVINS3, Svetlana ANISKEVICH4 1–3 Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia, Jelgavas iela 1, Riga, LV–1004, Latvia 4Forecasting and Climate Department, Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, Maskavas iela 165, Riga, LV–1019, Latvia Abstract – Thunderstorms are the most hazardous meteorological phenomena in Latvia in the summer season, and the assessment of their characteristics is essential for the development of an effective national climate and weather prediction service. However, the complex nature of convective processes sets specific limitations to their observation, analysis and forecasting. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse thunderstorm features associated with severe thunderstorms observed in weather radar and satellite data in Latvia over the period 2006–2015. The obtained results confirm the applicability of the selected thunderstorm features for thunderstorm nowcasting and analysis in Latvia. The most frequent features observed on days with thunderstorm were maximum radar reflectivities exceeding 50 dBZ and the occurrence of overshooting tops and tilted updrafts, while the occurrence of gravity waves, V-shaped storm structures and small ice particles have been found to be useful indicators of increased thunderstorm severity potential. Keywords – Lightning detection; meteorological satellite; remote sensing; thunderstorms; weather radar 1. INTRODUCTION Thunderstorm events are associated with numerous small-scale severe weather phenomena that can lead to fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic disruptions and environmental degradation. These small-scale weather phenomena include hail, lightning, damaging straight-line winds, tornadoes and heavy rainfall leading to flooding [1]–[5]. -
Connecting Local-Scale Heavy Precipitation to Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Over Portland, Oregon Using Observations and Climate Models" (2019)
Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses Summer 9-13-2019 Connecting Local-scale Heavy Precipitation to Large- scale Meteorological Patterns Over Portland, Oregon Using Observations and Climate Models Christina Marie Aragon Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Part of the Meteorology Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Aragon, Christina Marie, "Connecting Local-scale Heavy Precipitation to Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Over Portland, Oregon Using Observations and Climate Models" (2019). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 5174. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.7050 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. Connecting Local-scale Heavy Precipitation to Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Over Portland, Oregon Using Observations and Climate Models by Christina Marie Aragon A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geography Thesis Committee: Paul Loikith, Chair Andrew Fountain Andrew Martin Justin Wettstein Portland State University 2019 © 2019 Christina Marie Aragon Abstract Precipitation timing and magnitude is essential to human, ecological, and economic systems. Climate change may be altering the character of precipitation locally to globally, thus it is vital that resource managers, practitioners, and decision makers understand the nature of this change. This thesis was conducted in partnership with the City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services (BES), and the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) in order to support resiliency planning around precipitation and precipitation extremes.