Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation David L
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Curriculum Vitae ROBERT JEFFREY TRAPP Department of Atmospheric
Curriculum Vitae ROBERT JEFFREY TRAPP Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 105 S. Gregory Street Urbana, Illinois 61801 [email protected] EDUCATION The University of Oklahoma, Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1994 Dissertation: Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Tornado-Like Vortices Principal Advisor: Prof. Brian H. Fiedler Texas A&M University, M.S. in Meteorology, 1989 Thesis: The Effects of Cloud Base Rotation on Microburst Dynamics-A Numerical Investigation Principal Advisor: Prof. P. Das University of Missouri-Columbia, B.S. in Agriculture/Atmospheric Science, 1985 APPOINTMENTS Professor, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, August 2014-current. Professor, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, August 2010- July 2014. Associate Professor, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, August 2003-August 2010 Research Scientist, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and National Severe Storms Laboratory, July 1996-July 2003 Visiting Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, August 1998-December 2002 National Research Council Postdoctoral Research Fellow, at the National Severe Storms Laboratory, July 1994-June 1996 GRANTS AND FUNDING Principal Investigator, Modulation of convective-draft characteristics and subsequent tornado intensity by the environmental wind and thermodynamics within the Southeast U.S, NOAA, $287,529, 2017-2019 (pending formal approval by NOAA Grants Officer). Principal Investigator, Collaborative Research: Remote sensing of electrictrification, lightning, and mesoscale/microscale processes with adaptive ground observations during RELMPAGO, NSF-AGS, $636,947, 2017-2021. Co-Principal Investigator, Remote sensing of electrification, lightning, and mesoscale/microscale processes with adaptive ground observations (RELMPAGO), NSF-AGS, $23,940, 2016–2017. -
Art Directable Tornadoes
ART DIRECTABLE TORNADOES A Thesis by RAVINDRA DWIVEDI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2011 Major Subject: Visualization Art Directable Tornadoes Copyright 2011 Ravindra Dwivedi ART DIRECTABLE TORNADOES A Thesis by RAVINDRA DWIVEDI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Approved by: Chair of Committee, Vinod Srinivasan Committee Members, John Keyser Wei Yan Head of Department, Tim McLaughlin May 2011 Major Subject: Visualization iii ABSTRACT Art Directable Tornadoes. (May 2011) Ravindra Dwivedi, B.E., Rajiv Gandhi Proudyogiki Vishwavidyalaya Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Vinod Srinivasan Tornado simulations in the visual effects industry have always been an interesting problem. Developing tools to provide more control over such effects is an important and challenging task. Current methods to achieve these effects use either particle systems or fluid simulation. Particle systems give a lot of control over the simulation but do not take into account the fluid characteristics of tornadoes. The other method which involves fluid simulation models the fluid behavior accurately but does not give control over the simulation. In this thesis, a novel method to model tornado behavior is presented. A tool based on this method was also created. The method proposed in this thesis uses a hybrid approach that combines the flexibility of particle systems while producing interesting swirling motions inherent in the fluids. The main focus of the research is on providing easy-to-use controls for art directors to help them achieve the desired look of the simulation effectively. -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
Central Region Technical Attachment 95-08 Examination of an Apparent
CRH SSD APRIL 1995 CENTRAL REGION TECHNICAL ATTACHMENT 95-08 EXAMINATION OF AN APPARENT LANDSPOUT IN THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA David L. Hintz1 and Matthew J. Bunkers National Weather Service Office Rapid City, South Dakota 1. Abstract On June 29, 1994, an apparent landspout occurred in the Black Hills of South Dakota. This landspout exhibited most of the features characteristic of traditional landspouts documented in eastern Colorado. The landspout lasted 3 to 8 minutes, had a width of less than 20 m and a path of 1 to 3 km, produced estimated wind speeds of Fl intensity (33 to 50 m s1), and emanated from a towering cumulus (TCU) cloud located along a quasi-stationary convergencq/cyclonic shear zone. No radar echo was observed with this event; however, a supercell thunderstorm was located 80-100 km to the east. National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed the “very localized” damage area and ruled out the possibility of the landspout being related to microburst, gustnado, or dust devil activity, as winds away from the landspout were less than 3 m s1. The landspout apparently “detached” from the parent TCU and damaged a farm which resulted in $1,000 dollars in expenses. 2. Introduction During the late 1980’s and early 1990’s researchers documented a phe nomenon with subtle differences from traditional tornadoes and waterspouts, herein referred to as the landspout (Seargent 1994; Brady and Szoke 1988, 1989; Bluestein 1985). The term “landspout” was actually coined by Bluestein (I985)(in the formal literature) when he observed this type of vortex along an Oklahoma squall line. -
Doppler Radar Observations of Anticyclonic Tornadoes in Cyclonically Rotating, Right-Moving Supercells
APRIL 2016 B L U E S T E I N E T A L . 1591 Doppler Radar Observations of Anticyclonic Tornadoes in Cyclonically Rotating, Right-Moving Supercells HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma MICHAEL M. FRENCH School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York JEFFREY C. SNYDER Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma JANA B. HOUSER Department of Geography, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio (Manuscript received 31 August 2015, in final form 27 January 2016) ABSTRACT Supercells dominated by mesocyclones, which tend to propagate to the right of the tropospheric pressure- weighted mean wind, on rare occasions produce anticyclonic tornadoes at the trailing end of the rear-flank gust front. More frequently, mesoanticyclones are found at this location, most of which do not spawn any tornadoes. In this paper, four cases are discussed in which the formation of anticyclonic tornadoes was documented in the plains by mobile or fixed-site Doppler radars. These brief case studies include the analysis of Doppler radar data for tornadoes at the following dates and locations: 1) 24 April 2006, near El Reno, Oklahoma; 2) 23 May 2008, near Ellis, Kansas; 3) 18 March 2012, near Willow, Oklahoma; and 4) 31 May 2013, near El Reno, Oklahoma. Three of these tornadoes were also documented photographically. In all of these cases, a strong mesocyclone (i.e., vortex signature characterized by azimuthal shear in excess of ;5 3 2 2 2 10 3 s 1 or a 20 m s 1 change in Doppler velocity over 5 km) or tornado was observed ;10 km away from the anticyclonic tornado. -
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE of DUPAGE METEOROLOGY Focus on Anticipating and Spotting
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE OF DUPAGE METEOROLOGY HTTP://WEATHER.COD.EDU Focus on Anticipating and Spotting • What do you look for? • What will you actually see? • Can you identify what is going on with the storm? Is Gilbert married? Hmmmmm….rumor has it….. Its all about the updraft! Not that easy! • Various types of storms and storm structures. • A tornado is a “big sucky • Obscuration of important thing” and underneath the features make spotting updraft is where it forms. difficult. • So find the updraft! • The closer you are to a storm the more difficult it becomes to make these identifications. Conceptual models Reality is much harder. Basic Conceptual Model Sometimes its easy! North Central Illinois, 2-28-17 (Courtesy of Matt Piechota) Other times, not so much. Reality usually is far more complicated than our perfect pictures Rain Free Base Dusty Outflow More like reality SCUD Scattered Cumulus Under Deck Sigh...wall clouds! • Wall clouds help spotters identify where the updraft of a storm is • Wall clouds may or may not be present with tornadic storms • Wall clouds may be seen with any storm with an updraft • Wall clouds may or may not be rotating • Wall clouds may or may not result in tornadoes • Wall clouds should not be reported unless there is strong and easily observable rotation noted • When a clear slot is observed, a well written or transmitted report should say as much Characteristics of a Tornadic Wall Cloud • Surface-based inflow • Rapid vertical motion (scud-sucking) • Persistent • Persistent rotation Clear Slot • The key, however, is the development of a clear slot Prof. -
A WSR-88D Approach to Waterspout Forecasting
A WSR-88D Approach to Waterspout Forecasting LT(jg) Barry K. Choy, NOAA Corps and Scott M. Spratt National Weather Service Office Melbourne, FL Abstract The WSR-88D is being installed at National Weather Service (NWS) forecast and warning offices and many military installations across the county. The added capabilities of the WSR-88D over conventional radar provides the forecaster a multitude of products which allow a more complete interrogation of small scale weather features. In Florida, waterspouts and weak tornadoes account for much of the state's severe weather. They have been observed to form under certain synoptic conditions, most often during the summer and fall. Along the east-central Florida coast, waterspouts and weak tornadoes are most frequent in a relatively small area near Cape Canaveral. Observing and identifying small scale boundary interactions and the intensification of convective cells in this region using WSR-88D products from the Melbourne NWS office has proven useful in forecasting these situations. This paper will begin by providing a brief overview of the waterspout formation process. It also offers a forecast strategy developed for the east central Florida coast using specific WSR-88D products to recognize precursor signatures to waterspout and weak tornado formation. Once a high potential for waterspout formation exists, a special statement can be issued to heighten public awareness. An example of such a statement is provided. While the techniques introduced here were designed for the east-central Florida coast, they may be applicable at other coastal offices equipped with the WSR-88D. 1. Introduction The east-central Florida coast is affected by several waterspouts and tornadoes each year. -
An Idealized Physical Model for the Severe Convective Storm
Generated using the official AMS LATEX template—two-column layout. FOR AUTHOR USE ONLY, NOT FOR SUBMISSION! J OURNALOFTHE A TMOSPHERIC S CIENCES An idealized physical model for the severe convective storm environmental sounding Accepted in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 2020-10-26, there may still be copy-editing errors DANIEL R. CHAVAS* Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN DANIEL T. DAWSON II Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN ABSTRACT This work develops a theoretical model for steady thermodynamic and kinematic profiles for severe con- vective storm environments, building off of the two-layer static energy framework developed in Agard and Emanuel (2017). The model is phrased in terms of static energy, and it allows for independent variation of the boundary layer and free troposphere separated by a capping inversion. An algorithm is presented to apply the model to generate a sounding for numerical simulations of severe convective storms, and the model is compared and contrasted with that of Weisman and Klemp. The model is then fit to a case-study sounding associated with the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak, and its potential utility is demonstrated via idealized nu- merical simulation experiments. A long-lived supercell is successfully simulated with the historical sounding but not the analogous theoretical sounding. Two types of example experiments are then performed that do simulate a long-lived supercell: 1) a semi-theoretical experiment in which a portion of the theoretical sound- ing is modified to match the real sounding (low-level moisture); 2) a fully-theoretical experiment in which a model physical parameter is modified (free-tropospheric relative humidity). -
Presentation
5.4 A SUMMARY OF DATA COLLECTED DURING VORTEX2 BY MWR-05XP/TWOLF, UMASS X-POL, AND THE UMASS W-BAND RADAR Howard B. Bluestein*, M. M. French, J. B. Houser, J. C. Snyder, R. L. Tanamachi School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman I. PopStefanija and C. Baldi ProSensing, Inc., Amherst, Massachusetts G. D. Emmitt Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, Virginia V. Venkatesh, K. Orzel, and S. J. Frasier Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory, University of Massachusetts, Amherst R. T. Bluth CIRPAS, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 1. INTRODUCTION During VORTEX2, three scanning, mobile, truck-mounted Doppler radars and a mobile, scanning Doppler lidar were used in the field by a group of faculty and graduate students from the University of Oklahoma (OU), supported by personnel from the institutions given above. These platforms were part of the VORTEX2 armada. A scout car from OU assisted with field operations. The U. Mass. W-band radar (Fig. 1) (e.g., Bluestein et al. 2007a) has been used since 1993. It has a half-power beamwidth of 0 0.18 and is used mainly to probe tornadoes Figure 1. U. Mass. W-band radar probing a at high spatial resolution, near the ground, tornado in Goshen County, Wyoming on 5 June from a range of 10 - 15 km or less. 2009. © R. Tanamachi The U. Mass. X-Pol radar (Fig. 2) is an X- band, polarimetric radar, whose antenna has identify polarimetric signatures in supercells 0 a half-power beamwidth of 1.25 . It has (Snyder et al. 2010). been used since 2001 without Doppler or The MWR-05XP (Fig. -
Weather - Tornadoes
Ducksters Reading- Tornadoes Weather - Tornadoes Tornadoes are one of the most violent and powerful types of weather. They consist of a very fast rotating column of air that usually forms a funnel shape. They can be very dangerous as their high speed winds can break apart buildings, knock down trees, and even toss cars into the air. How do tornadoes form? When we talk about tornadoes, we are usually talking about large tornadoes that occur during thunderstorms. These types of tornadoes form from very tall thunderstorm clouds called cumulonimbus clouds. However, it takes more than just a thunderstorm to cause a tornado. Other conditions must occur for a tornado to form. The typical steps for the formation of a tornado are as follows: 1. A large thunderstorm occurs in a cumulonimbus cloud 2. A change in wind direction and wind speed at high altitudes causes the air to swirl horizontally 3. Rising air from the ground pushes up on the swirling air and tips it over 4. The funnel of swirling air begins to suck up more warm air from the ground 5. The funnel grows longer and stretches toward the ground 6. When the funnel touches the ground it becomes a tornado Characteristics of a Tornado Shape - Tornadoes typically look like a narrow funnel reaching from the clouds down to the ground. Sometimes giant tornadoes can look more like a wedge. Size - Tornadoes can vary widely in size. A typical tornado in the United States is around 500 feet across, but some may be as narrow as just a few feet across or nearly two miles wide. -
Curriculum Vitae
CURRICULUM VITAE CLIFFORD F. MASS Updated: 04/30/2021 Personal Data Address: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Box 351640 University of Washington Seattle, Washington 98195 [email protected] (206) 685-0910 Education B.S., Cornell University 1974 Major - Physics Ph.D., University of Washington 1978 Atmospheric Sciences Doctoral Thesis: "A Numerical and Observational Study of African Wave Disturbances." J. R. Holton, adviser. Professional Experience Mid 1981 to Assistant, Associate Professor, and Professor, Department of present Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington. 1978 to mid Assistant Professor, Department of Meteorology, University of 1981 Maryland. Books The Weather of the Pacific Northwest, University of Washington Press The Secrets of Weather Prediction, in preparation. Mass, C., D. Ovens, R. Conrick, and J. Saltenberger, 2021: The 2020 Labor Day wildfires over the Pacific Northwest. Wea. Forecasting. In review. Mass, C., E. Salathe, R. Steed, and J. Baars, 2021: Analysis of the Mesoscale Response to Global Warming over the Pacific Northwes Using a Regional CliMate Model EnseMble. J. AtMos. Sci. In review Weber, N., D. Kim, and C. Mass, 2020: Convectively coupled Kelvin waves in a global convection- permitting model. J. Atmos. Sci,. 78, 1039-1055 Weber, N. J., C. F. Mass, and D. KiM, 2020: The iMpacts of horizontal grid spacing and cumulus paraMeterization on subseasonal prediction in a global convection-permitting model. Mon. Wea. Rev., Accepted for publication. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0171.1. McClung, B., and C. F. Mass, 2020: The strong, dry winds of Central and Northern California: cliMatology and synoptic evolution. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 2163–2178 Mass, C. -
The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States
Minnesota State University, Mankato Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects 2013 The ducE ational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States Paul R. Zunkel Minnesota State University - Mankato Follow this and additional works at: http://cornerstone.lib.mnsu.edu/etds Part of the Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Zunkel, Paul R., "The ducaE tional Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States" (2013). Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects. Paper 140. This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States By Paul Zunkel A Thesis Submitted in partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for Master of Science Degree in Geography Minnesota State University, Mankato Mankato, Minnesota May 2013 5 April, 2013 This thesis has been examined and approved. Examining Committee: Dr. Forrest Wilkerson, Chairperson Dr. Ginger Schmid Dr. Cynthia Miller ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research paper is dedicated to Mrs. Hope Hislop. Thank you for all the years of guidance, encouragement, and advice about following my dreams and pursuing my passions. No one could ask for a better grandmother.