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A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes
Garner, J. M., 2013: A study of synoptic-scale tornado regimes. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (3), 1–25. A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes JONATHAN M. GARNER NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK (Submitted 21 November 2012; in final form 06 August 2013) ABSTRACT The significant tornado parameter (STP) has been used by severe-thunderstorm forecasters since 2003 to identify environments favoring development of strong to violent tornadoes. The STP and its individual components of mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, 0–6-km bulk wind difference (BWD), 0–1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH), and ML lifted condensation level (LCL) have been calculated here using archived surface objective analysis data, and then examined during the period 2003−2010 over the central and eastern United States. These components then were compared and contrasted in order to distinguish between environmental characteristics analyzed for three different synoptic-cyclone regimes that produced significantly tornadic supercells: cold fronts, warm fronts, and drylines. Results show that MLCAPE contributes strongly to the dryline significant-tornado environment, while it was less pronounced in cold- frontal significant-tornado regimes. The 0–6-km BWD was found to contribute equally to all three significant tornado regimes, while 0–1-km SRH more strongly contributed to the cold-frontal significant- tornado environment than for the warm-frontal and dryline regimes. –––––––––––––––––––––––– 1. Background and motivation As detailed in Hobbs et al. (1996), synoptic- scale cyclones that foster tornado development Parameter-based and pattern-recognition evolve with time as they emerge over the central forecast techniques have been essential and eastern contiguous United States (hereafter, components of anticipating tornadoes in the CONUS). -
Art Directable Tornadoes
ART DIRECTABLE TORNADOES A Thesis by RAVINDRA DWIVEDI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2011 Major Subject: Visualization Art Directable Tornadoes Copyright 2011 Ravindra Dwivedi ART DIRECTABLE TORNADOES A Thesis by RAVINDRA DWIVEDI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Approved by: Chair of Committee, Vinod Srinivasan Committee Members, John Keyser Wei Yan Head of Department, Tim McLaughlin May 2011 Major Subject: Visualization iii ABSTRACT Art Directable Tornadoes. (May 2011) Ravindra Dwivedi, B.E., Rajiv Gandhi Proudyogiki Vishwavidyalaya Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Vinod Srinivasan Tornado simulations in the visual effects industry have always been an interesting problem. Developing tools to provide more control over such effects is an important and challenging task. Current methods to achieve these effects use either particle systems or fluid simulation. Particle systems give a lot of control over the simulation but do not take into account the fluid characteristics of tornadoes. The other method which involves fluid simulation models the fluid behavior accurately but does not give control over the simulation. In this thesis, a novel method to model tornado behavior is presented. A tool based on this method was also created. The method proposed in this thesis uses a hybrid approach that combines the flexibility of particle systems while producing interesting swirling motions inherent in the fluids. The main focus of the research is on providing easy-to-use controls for art directors to help them achieve the desired look of the simulation effectively. -
Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries
JANUARY 2005 H A K I M A N D CANAVAN 231 Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries GREGORY J. HAKIM AND AMELIA K. CANAVAN University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 30 September 2003, in final form 28 June 2004) ABSTRACT Relatively little is known about coherent vortices near the extratropical tropopause, even with regard to basic facts about their frequency of occurrence, longevity, and structure. This study addresses these issues through an objective census of observed tropopause vortices. The authors test a hypothesis regarding vortex-merger asymmetry where cyclone pairs are repelled and anticyclone pairs are attracted by divergent flow due to frontogenesis. Emphasis is placed on arctic vortices, where jet stream influences are weaker, in order to facilitate comparisons with earlier idealized numerical simulations. Results show that arctic cyclones are more numerous, persistent, and stronger than arctic anticyclones. An average of 15 cyclonic vortices and 11 anticyclonic vortices are observed per month, with maximum frequency of occurrence for cyclones (anticyclones) during winter (summer). There are are about 47% more cyclones than anticyclones that survive at least 4 days, and for longer lifetimes, 1-day survival probabilities are nearly constant at 65% for cyclones, and 55% for anticyclones. Mean tropopause potential-temperature amplitude is 13 K for cyclones and 11 K for anticyclones, with cyclones exhibiting a greater tail toward larger values. An analysis of close-proximity vortex pairs reveals divergence between cyclones and convergence be- tween anticyclones. This result agrees qualitatively with previous idealized numerical simulations, although it is unclear to what extent the divergent circulations regulate vortex asymmetries. -
Meteorology – Lecture 19
Meteorology – Lecture 19 Robert Fovell [email protected] 1 Important notes • These slides show some figures and videos prepared by Robert G. Fovell (RGF) for his “Meteorology” course, published by The Great Courses (TGC). Unless otherwise identified, they were created by RGF. • In some cases, the figures employed in the course video are different from what I present here, but these were the figures I provided to TGC at the time the course was taped. • These figures are intended to supplement the videos, in order to facilitate understanding of the concepts discussed in the course. These slide shows cannot, and are not intended to, replace the course itself and are not expected to be understandable in isolation. • Accordingly, these presentations do not represent a summary of each lecture, and neither do they contain each lecture’s full content. 2 Animations linked in the PowerPoint version of these slides may also be found here: http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/fovell/meteo/ 3 Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and drylines 4 This map shows a dryline that formed in Texas during April 2000. The dryline is indicated by unfilled half-circles in orange, pointing at the more moist air. We see little T contrast but very large TD change. Dew points drop from 68F to 29F -- huge decrease in humidity 5 Animation 6 Supercell thunderstorms 7 The secret ingredient for supercells is large amounts of vertical wind shear. CAPE is necessary but sufficient shear is essential. It is shear that makes the difference between an ordinary multicellular thunderstorm and the rotating supercell. The shear implies rotation. -
Central Region Technical Attachment 95-08 Examination of an Apparent
CRH SSD APRIL 1995 CENTRAL REGION TECHNICAL ATTACHMENT 95-08 EXAMINATION OF AN APPARENT LANDSPOUT IN THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA David L. Hintz1 and Matthew J. Bunkers National Weather Service Office Rapid City, South Dakota 1. Abstract On June 29, 1994, an apparent landspout occurred in the Black Hills of South Dakota. This landspout exhibited most of the features characteristic of traditional landspouts documented in eastern Colorado. The landspout lasted 3 to 8 minutes, had a width of less than 20 m and a path of 1 to 3 km, produced estimated wind speeds of Fl intensity (33 to 50 m s1), and emanated from a towering cumulus (TCU) cloud located along a quasi-stationary convergencq/cyclonic shear zone. No radar echo was observed with this event; however, a supercell thunderstorm was located 80-100 km to the east. National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed the “very localized” damage area and ruled out the possibility of the landspout being related to microburst, gustnado, or dust devil activity, as winds away from the landspout were less than 3 m s1. The landspout apparently “detached” from the parent TCU and damaged a farm which resulted in $1,000 dollars in expenses. 2. Introduction During the late 1980’s and early 1990’s researchers documented a phe nomenon with subtle differences from traditional tornadoes and waterspouts, herein referred to as the landspout (Seargent 1994; Brady and Szoke 1988, 1989; Bluestein 1985). The term “landspout” was actually coined by Bluestein (I985)(in the formal literature) when he observed this type of vortex along an Oklahoma squall line. -
Doppler Radar Observations of Anticyclonic Tornadoes in Cyclonically Rotating, Right-Moving Supercells
APRIL 2016 B L U E S T E I N E T A L . 1591 Doppler Radar Observations of Anticyclonic Tornadoes in Cyclonically Rotating, Right-Moving Supercells HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma MICHAEL M. FRENCH School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York JEFFREY C. SNYDER Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma JANA B. HOUSER Department of Geography, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio (Manuscript received 31 August 2015, in final form 27 January 2016) ABSTRACT Supercells dominated by mesocyclones, which tend to propagate to the right of the tropospheric pressure- weighted mean wind, on rare occasions produce anticyclonic tornadoes at the trailing end of the rear-flank gust front. More frequently, mesoanticyclones are found at this location, most of which do not spawn any tornadoes. In this paper, four cases are discussed in which the formation of anticyclonic tornadoes was documented in the plains by mobile or fixed-site Doppler radars. These brief case studies include the analysis of Doppler radar data for tornadoes at the following dates and locations: 1) 24 April 2006, near El Reno, Oklahoma; 2) 23 May 2008, near Ellis, Kansas; 3) 18 March 2012, near Willow, Oklahoma; and 4) 31 May 2013, near El Reno, Oklahoma. Three of these tornadoes were also documented photographically. In all of these cases, a strong mesocyclone (i.e., vortex signature characterized by azimuthal shear in excess of ;5 3 2 2 2 10 3 s 1 or a 20 m s 1 change in Doppler velocity over 5 km) or tornado was observed ;10 km away from the anticyclonic tornado. -
Severe Weather Forecasting Tip Sheet: WFO Louisville
Severe Weather Forecasting Tip Sheet: WFO Louisville Vertical Wind Shear & SRH Tornadic Supercells 0-6 km bulk shear > 40 kts – supercells Unstable warm sector air mass, with well-defined warm and cold fronts (i.e., strong extratropical cyclone) 0-6 km bulk shear 20-35 kts – organized multicells Strong mid and upper-level jet observed to dive southward into upper-level shortwave trough, then 0-6 km bulk shear < 10-20 kts – disorganized multicells rapidly exit the trough and cross into the warm sector air mass. 0-8 km bulk shear > 52 kts – long-lived supercells Pronounced upper-level divergence occurs on the nose and exit region of the jet. 0-3 km bulk shear > 30-40 kts – bowing thunderstorms A low-level jet forms in response to upper-level jet, which increases northward flux of moisture. SRH Intense northwest-southwest upper-level flow/strong southerly low-level flow creates a wind profile which 0-3 km SRH > 150 m2 s-2 = updraft rotation becomes more likely 2 -2 is very conducive for supercell development. Storms often exhibit rapid development along cold front, 0-3 km SRH > 300-400 m s = rotating updrafts and supercell development likely dryline, or pre-frontal convergence axis, and then move east into warm sector. BOTH 2 -2 Most intense tornadic supercells often occur in close proximity to where upper-level jet intersects low- 0-6 km shear < 35 kts with 0-3 km SRH > 150 m s – brief rotation but not persistent level jet, although tornadic supercells can occur north and south of upper jet as well. -
Short-Term Forecasts of Left-Moving Supercells from an Experimental Warn-On-Forecast System
Jones, T. A., and C. Nixon, 2017: Short-term forecasts of left-moving supercells from an experimental Warn-on-Forecast system. J. Operational Meteor., 5 (13), 161-170, doi: https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2017.0513 Short-term Forecasts of Left-Moving Supercells from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System THOMAS A. JONES Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma CAMERON NIXON Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas (Manuscript received 10 March 2017; review completed 23 June 2017) ABSTRACT Most research in storm-scale numerical weather prediction has been focused on right-moving supercells as they typically lend themselves to all forms of high-impact weather, including tornadoes. As the dynamics behind splitting updrafts and storm motion have become better understood, differentiating between atmospheric conditions that encourage right- and left-moving supercells has become the subject of increasing study because of its implication for these weather forecasts. Despite still often producing large hail and damaging winds, left- moving (anticyclonically rotating in the Northern Hemisphere) supercells have received much less attention. During the 2016, NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed, the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) was run in real-time. One event in particular occurred on 8 May 2016 during which multiple left- and right- moving supercells developed in western Oklahoma and Kansas—producing many severe weather reports. The goal of this study was to analyze the near storm environment created by NEWS-e using wind shear and other severe weather parameters. Then, we sought to determine the ability of the NEWS-e system to forecast storm splits and the persistence of left- and right- moving supercells through qualitatively analyzing tracks of forecast updraft helicity. -
Mesoscale Organization of Convection
MesoscaleMesoscale OrganizationOrganization ofof ConvectionConvection SquallSquall LineLine • Is a set of individual intense thunderstorm cells arranged in a line. • Thy occur along a boundary of unstable air – e.g. a cold front. • Strong environmental wind shear causes the updraft to be tilted and separated from the downdraft. • The dense cold air of the downdraft forms a ‘gust front’. SquallSquall lineline fromfrom SpaceSpace Image courtesy of http://cnls.lanl.gov. This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see: http://www.floridalightning.com/Hurricane_Wilma.html This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see similar images on: http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/sevwx/ MesoscaleMesoscale ConvectiveConvective ComplexComplex • A Mesoscale Convective Complex is composed of multiple single-cell storms in different stages of development. • The individual thunderstorms must support the formation of other convective cells • In order to last a long time, a good supply of moisture is required at low levels in te atmosphere. InfraredInfrared imageimage ofof aa mesoscalemesoscale convectiveconvective complexcomplex overover Kansas,Kansas, JulyJuly 88 1997.1997. This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see similar images on: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/970708.html TYPESTYPES OFOF THUNDERSTORMTHUNDERSTORM • SINGLE-CELL THUNDERSTORM • MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM • MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE C0MPLEX • SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM Non-equilibrium Convection SUPERCELLSUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMSTHUNDERSTORMS • SINGLE CELL THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCES DANGEROUS WEATHER • REQUIRES A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR - BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION • UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WIND SHEAR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ROTATES • FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS IN THE SPRING WindWind ShearShear Shear Vector Hodograph This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. -
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE of DUPAGE METEOROLOGY Focus on Anticipating and Spotting
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE OF DUPAGE METEOROLOGY HTTP://WEATHER.COD.EDU Focus on Anticipating and Spotting • What do you look for? • What will you actually see? • Can you identify what is going on with the storm? Is Gilbert married? Hmmmmm….rumor has it….. Its all about the updraft! Not that easy! • Various types of storms and storm structures. • A tornado is a “big sucky • Obscuration of important thing” and underneath the features make spotting updraft is where it forms. difficult. • So find the updraft! • The closer you are to a storm the more difficult it becomes to make these identifications. Conceptual models Reality is much harder. Basic Conceptual Model Sometimes its easy! North Central Illinois, 2-28-17 (Courtesy of Matt Piechota) Other times, not so much. Reality usually is far more complicated than our perfect pictures Rain Free Base Dusty Outflow More like reality SCUD Scattered Cumulus Under Deck Sigh...wall clouds! • Wall clouds help spotters identify where the updraft of a storm is • Wall clouds may or may not be present with tornadic storms • Wall clouds may be seen with any storm with an updraft • Wall clouds may or may not be rotating • Wall clouds may or may not result in tornadoes • Wall clouds should not be reported unless there is strong and easily observable rotation noted • When a clear slot is observed, a well written or transmitted report should say as much Characteristics of a Tornadic Wall Cloud • Surface-based inflow • Rapid vertical motion (scud-sucking) • Persistent • Persistent rotation Clear Slot • The key, however, is the development of a clear slot Prof. -
A WSR-88D Approach to Waterspout Forecasting
A WSR-88D Approach to Waterspout Forecasting LT(jg) Barry K. Choy, NOAA Corps and Scott M. Spratt National Weather Service Office Melbourne, FL Abstract The WSR-88D is being installed at National Weather Service (NWS) forecast and warning offices and many military installations across the county. The added capabilities of the WSR-88D over conventional radar provides the forecaster a multitude of products which allow a more complete interrogation of small scale weather features. In Florida, waterspouts and weak tornadoes account for much of the state's severe weather. They have been observed to form under certain synoptic conditions, most often during the summer and fall. Along the east-central Florida coast, waterspouts and weak tornadoes are most frequent in a relatively small area near Cape Canaveral. Observing and identifying small scale boundary interactions and the intensification of convective cells in this region using WSR-88D products from the Melbourne NWS office has proven useful in forecasting these situations. This paper will begin by providing a brief overview of the waterspout formation process. It also offers a forecast strategy developed for the east central Florida coast using specific WSR-88D products to recognize precursor signatures to waterspout and weak tornado formation. Once a high potential for waterspout formation exists, a special statement can be issued to heighten public awareness. An example of such a statement is provided. While the techniques introduced here were designed for the east-central Florida coast, they may be applicable at other coastal offices equipped with the WSR-88D. 1. Introduction The east-central Florida coast is affected by several waterspouts and tornadoes each year. -
Synoptic Meteorology
Lecture Notes on Synoptic Meteorology For Integrated Meteorological Training Course By Dr. Prakash Khare Scientist E India Meteorological Department Meteorological Training Institute Pashan,Pune-8 186 IMTC SYLLABUS OF SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY (FOR DIRECT RECRUITED S.A’S OF IMD) Theory (25 Periods) ❖ Scales of weather systems; Network of Observatories; Surface, upper air; special observations (satellite, radar, aircraft etc.); analysis of fields of meteorological elements on synoptic charts; Vertical time / cross sections and their analysis. ❖ Wind and pressure analysis: Isobars on level surface and contours on constant pressure surface. Isotherms, thickness field; examples of geostrophic, gradient and thermal winds: slope of pressure system, streamline and Isotachs analysis. ❖ Western disturbance and its structure and associated weather, Waves in mid-latitude westerlies. ❖ Thunderstorm and severe local storm, synoptic conditions favourable for thunderstorm, concepts of triggering mechanism, conditional instability; Norwesters, dust storm, hail storm. Squall, tornado, microburst/cloudburst, landslide. ❖ Indian summer monsoon; S.W. Monsoon onset: semi permanent systems, Active and break monsoon, Monsoon depressions: MTC; Offshore troughs/vortices. Influence of extra tropical troughs and typhoons in northwest Pacific; withdrawal of S.W. Monsoon, Northeast monsoon, ❖ Tropical Cyclone: Life cycle, vertical and horizontal structure of TC, Its movement and intensification. Weather associated with TC. Easterly wave and its structure and associated weather. ❖ Jet Streams – WMO definition of Jet stream, different jet streams around the globe, Jet streams and weather ❖ Meso-scale meteorology, sea and land breezes, mountain/valley winds, mountain wave. ❖ Short range weather forecasting (Elementary ideas only); persistence, climatology and steering methods, movement and development of synoptic scale systems; Analogue techniques- prediction of individual weather elements, visibility, surface and upper level winds, convective phenomena.