Evaluation of the Risk of Flood in Iskandar Region, Using Fuzzy Logic and Weighted Linear Combination in Geographic Information System

NASIM YEGANEH

A project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Master of Science (Urban and Regional Planning)

Faculty of Built Environment

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

JUNE 2013 iii

DEDICATION

To my beloved Mother and Father with Regards…

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Many have contributed to the completion of this study, knowingly and unknowingly, for which I am highly indebted. First of all, I am greatly indebted to my supervisor, Dr. Soheil Sabri, for his knowledge, advice, patience and immense contribution in directing the framework of the study, and for putting up with my initial endless “waffling”. His time and effort is highly appreciated. I also would like to express my appreciation to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Foziah Johar for her comments and cooperation during conducting this study.

Further gratitude is extended to my friends especially Zhou wei. For their encouragement, support and presence helped. I’m also grateful to them for filling my academic days with joy and happiness.

Last but not the least, I would like to sincerely thank my family, brother Bizhan Yeganeh and sisters Maryam Abbasi and Negin Yeganeh, specially my parents Nezam Yeganeh and Shahin Shahbazi for their endless love, support and encouragement. I could not have done it without you!

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ABSTRACT

Recently, region have been affected by flood events, which cause environmental, social and economic impacts. Severe rainfall, natural situation, new unplanned developments, and insufficient drainage systems make the situation more remarkable.

This research is an approach of flood hazard assessment at regional scale. The objectives of this study are to find out the criteria which contribute to the risk of flooding based on the characteristic of the region to develop a GIS-aided urban flood susceptibility map. Fuzzy logic and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) methods in Geographic Information System (GIS) are used to achieve the objectives. Defined criteria are evaluated by means of complexity, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The methodology emphasizes on uncertainty criteria which contribute to the risk of flood and increase the risk. Distance from main stream, elevation, slope, land use type, distance from river and distance from discharge channel are recognized as effective criteria within the region. Each criterion is evaluated based on fuzzy membership type and generated map are combined using weighted linear combination to produce the final flood susceptibility map. Final susceptibility map indicates that around 6.586 square kilometers within the region face high level of risk. Pulai, , and Bahru can be considered as areas which face the risk. Natural and man-made situation influence the level of risk in each area. Generally the southern part of the region has high level of risk as a consequence of conjunction of location of stream, lowland and land use type. The model is evaluated by sensitivity analysis to analysis the uncertainty and degree of importance of input criteria. Finally the situation in 2025 is investigated based on the proposed plan for 2025.

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ABSTRAK

Baru-baru ini wilayah Iskandar, Malaysia telah terjejas dengan kejadian- kejadian banjir yang menyebabkan impak alam sekitar, sosial dan ekonomi. Hujan yang sangat lebat, keadaan semulajadi, pembangunan baru yang tidak dirancang, dan sistem perparitan yang tidak mencukupi menjadikan keadaan lebih parah lagi.

Kajian ini adalah satu pendekatan penilaian bahaya banjir dalam skala wilayah. Objektif kajian ini ialah untuk mencari kriteria yang menyumbang kepada risiko banjir berdasarkan kepada ciri-ciri wilayah tersebut dan membangunkan peta kecenderungan banjir bandar dengan bantuan GIS. Kaedah Fuzzy Logic dan Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) dalam Sistem Maklumat Geografi (GIS) telah digunakan untuk mencapai objektif yang digariskan. Kriteria yang telah ditetapkan dinilai melalui kerumitan, ketidaktentuan, dan analisis sensitiviti. Kaedah yang digunakan menumpukan kepada ketidaktentuan kriteria yang menyumbang kepada risiko banjir dan meningkatkan lagi risiko ini. Jarak dari aliran utama, ketinggian, cerun, jenis penggunaan tanah, jarak dari sungai, dan jarak dari saluran pembuangan adalah ciri-ciri yang yang dikenalpasti sebagai kriteria yang efektif dalam wilayah ini. Setiap kriteria dinilai berdasarkan kepada jenis Fuzzy membership dan gabungan peta yang dijana adalah menggunakan kombinasi linear wajaran (weighted linear combination) untuk menghasilkan peta kecenderungan banjir yang terakhir. Peta kecenderungan banjir yang terakhir ini menunjukkan bahawa linkungan 6.586 kilometer persegi dalam wilayah yang dikaji berdepan dengan risiko tahap tinggi. Pulai, Senai, Kulai, Tebrau, dan boleh dianggap sebagai kawasan yang berdepan dengan risiko ini. Keadaan semulajadi dan buatan manusia mempengaruhi tahap risiko dalam setiap kawasan. Secara umumnya, bahagian selatan wilayah ini mempunyai tahap risiko yang tinggi berdasarkan kepada lokasi sungai, tanah rendah, dan jenis penggunaan tanah. Model ini dinilai oleh analisis sensitiviti untuk menilai ketidaktentuan dan tahap kepentingan kriteria input. Akhirnya, situasi pada tahun 2025 dikaji berdasarkan pelan perancangan yang dicadangkan untuk tahun tersebut. vii

TABLE OF CONTENT

CHAPTER TITLE PAGE

AUTHOR'S DECLARATION ii DEDICATION iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv ABSTRACT v ABSTRAK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS vii LIST OF FIGURES xi LIST OF TABLES xiii

1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Background of the Study 3 1.3 Problem Statement 4 1.4 Research Questions 5 1.5 Objectives of Study 6 1.6 Significance of Study 6 1.7 Research Methodology 7 1.8 Research Organization 8

2 LITERATURE REVIEW 11 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 Natural Hazard 12 2.3 Flood 12

2.3.1 Definition of Flood 13 viii

2.3.2 Causes of Flood 14 2.3.3 Flash Flood 16 2.4 Risk 17 2.5 Flood Risk Assessment 18 2.5.1.Different Methodologies for Flood 19 Risk Assessment 2.6 Flood Effects on Built Environment 21 2.7 Effects of Urban Development on Flood 22 2.7.1 Urban Development Hydrologic Effect 23

2.7.2 Hydraulic Effects due to Stream 25 Channels and Floodplains Changes 2.7.3 Urban Development Effects on Flood 26 Frequency and Discharge 2.8 Indicators Which Contribute to the Risk of 29 Flood 2.8.1 Distance to the Discharge Channels 36 2.8.2 Elevation 37 2.8.3 Slope 38 2.8.4 Land Use and Cover Type 38 2.8.5 Distance from Stream 39 2.9.6 Population Density 39 2.9 Flood in Malaysia 41

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA 3 46 PREPARATION 3.1 Introduction 46 3.2 Methodological Framework and Model 46 Introduction 3.3 Methodology Approach 49 3.3.1 Phase One: Investigate the Main Criteria which are Associated with 49 Flood Risk ix

3.3.2 Phase Two: Find out to what Extent do Criteria Associate with the Risk 49 of Flooding

3.3.2.1 Justification for Suggested 50 Method 3.3.2.2 Criterion Weighting 51 3.3.3 Phase Three: Generate Flood Susceptibility Map with Respect to 52 Defined Criteria 3.4 Study Area 54 3.5 Data Collection and Data Preparation 58 3.5.1 Map Projection 58 3.5.2 Convert Vector Data to Raster Data 58 3.5.3 Data Reclassification 60 3.5.4 Fuzzy Membership Type Selection 63 3.5.5 Weighted Linear Combination 71 3.6 Modeling 73 3.6.1 Model Validation 73 3.6.2 Model Evaluation 73 3.6.3 Sensitivity Analysis 74 3.7 Summary 75

DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND 4 76 DISCUSSION 4.1 Introduction 76 4.2 Model validation 77 4.3 Model Evaluation 78 4.4 Investigate the condition and highlighting 81 effective criteria in different 4.4.1 Tebrau 81 4.4.2 Senai Kulai 84 4.4.3 Pulai 88 4.4.4 Sungai Karang, Tanjong Kupang, 92 x

Jelutong and Jeram Batu 4.4.5 Johor Bahru 93 4.4.6 Comparison between Different 95 4.4.7 Model Sensitivity Analysis 98 4.4.8 Vulnerability Assessment 105 4.5 Generated Model based on Proposed Plan 107 for 2025 4.4.1 Generated Model for 2025 107 4.6 Summary 110

5 CONCLUSION 112

5.1 Summary of Finding 112 5.2 Conclusion 113 5.3 Recommendation 114

116 REFERENCES

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List of Figure

FIGURE No. TITLE PAGE Comparison between peak discharge and volume Figure 2.1 25 in urban and rural area Figure 2.2 Trend of changing in maximum annual discharge 27 comparison between urban and green area in Figure 2.3 28 terms of long term annual rainfall 1965 – 2002 Comparison of annual rainfall in urban and green Figure 2.4 29 area in and Johor Bahru Figure 2.5 Criteria which contribute to the risk of flood 36 Figure 2.6 Flood prone area in 44 Figure 2.7 Summary of literature review 45 Figure 3.1 Research work flow 48 Figure 3.2 Weighted Linear Combination concept 54 Figure 3.3 Iskandar Malaysia region 55 Figure 3.4 Flooded area within the study area 56 Figure 3.5 Methodology framework 57 Figure 3.6 Fuzzy Gaussian membership 64 Figure 3.7 Fuzzy Large membership 65 Figure 3.8 Fuzzy Linear membership 66 Figure 3.9 Fuzzy MS Large membership 66 Figure 3.10 Fuzzy Near membership 67 Figure 3.11 Fuzzy Small membership 68 Figure 3.12 Land use map preparation 71 Figure 3.12 Followed steps to achieve the final result 72 Model validation based on “distance from main Figure 4.1 77 stream” Figure 4.2 Model validation based on “Land use” 78 Figure 4.3 Flooded area and generated model 79 Figure 4.4 Flood susceptibility map in Iskandar Malaysia 80 Figure 4.5 Tebrau flood susceptibility map 83 Figure 4.6 Flooded area in Northern part of Senai Kulai 86 xii

Fuzzy membership map in terms of land use type Figure 4.7 87 in Senai Kulai Figure 4.8 Senai Kulai flood susceptibility map 88 Figure 4.9 Flooded area in Northern part of Pulai 90 Figure 4.10 Pulai flood susceptibility map 91 Sungai Karang, Tanjong Kupang, Jelutong and Figure 4.11 93 Jeram Batu flood susceptibility map Figure 4.12 Johor Bahru flood susceptibility map 95 Figure 4.13 Built up and non-built up area 97 Figure 4.14 Sensitivity analysis maps in Iskandar Malaysia 100 Figure 4.15 First step of sensitivity analysis 101 Figure 4.16 Second step of sensitivity analysis 102 Figure 4.17 Third step of sensitivity analysis 102 Figure 4.18 Fourth step of sensitivity analysis 103 Figure 4.19 Fifth step of sensitivity analysis 104 Figure 4. 20 Sixth step of sensitivity analysis 104 Figure 4. 21 Population density and area under the flood risk 106 Fuzzy membership maps in terms of land use for Figure 4.22 108 2011 and 2025 Figure 4.23 Flood susceptibility map for 2011 and 2025 108 Comparison between built up and non-built up Figure 4.24 110 area in 2011 and 2025

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List of Table

TABLE No. TITLE PAGE Table 2.1 Criteria and Indicators 40 Distance from main stream, river and drainage Table 3.1 60 system Table 3.2 Assigned rank for reclassify the indicators 62 Table 3.3 Type of fuzzy membership 70 Table 3.4 Weight of criteria 72 Table 4.1 Land use type in Tebrau 82 Table 4.2 Land use type in Senai Kulai 84 Table 4.3 Land use type in Pulai 89 Land use type in Sungai Karang, Tanjong Table 4.4 92 Kupang, Jelutong and Jeram Batu Table 4.5 Land use type in Johor Bahru 94 Comparision between elevation and slope in Table 4.6 96 Mukims Table 4.7 Comparision between land use type in Mukims 97 Table 4.8 Sensitivity analysis result 105 Comparison between land use type in 2011 and Table 4.9 109 2025 in different Mukims

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction

Floodplains are recognized as desirable places for habitation and development due to the inherent advantages for water supply, irrigation system, power, food and defense (White, 2008). Also convenient navigation and transportation system for communication provide along coastal area and rivers (Tingsanchali, 2012). Despite the above mentioned advantages, this situation increases the risk of flooding and make flooding one of the most remarkable natural hazards (White, 2008).

During the last decade, flooding is recognized as the most common disaster in all over the world and causes nearly half of all victims of natural hazards. In addition to that, economic losses is estimated around US $185 billion (Alderman et al., 2012). More than 50 percent of global flood damages occur in Asian countries (Tingsanchali, 2012). Due to climate change and arising sea level flooding are expected to occur more frequent and intensive. In addition, more people will be put in jeopardy of flooding due to increasing levels of urbanization recently. Land use 2 change is associated with urban development and affects flooding in many ways (Alderman et al., 2012).

Natural hazards’ threat in urban areas is mostly inscribed via land-use zoning and building regulation (Khailani and Perera, 2013). Deforestation, removing soil and vegetation, grading land surface and improper drainage system implementation intensify runoff. Volume, vehemence and frequency of flood will be increased as a result of the peak discharge. Capacity of stream channels for transmitting floodwater are affected and decreased due to the urban development. Constructing roads and building in place which are located in flood prone areas increase the risk of flooding, inundation and erosion. Surface water flooding management is impeded due to the urban drainage characteristic (Kaźmierczak et al., 2011).

Basically, some attributes can provide inherent resilience within the city. Impermeable surface within the cities such as buildings, parking and roads increase the surface runoff. On the other hand presences of green space and city surface which have high capacity to observe water reduce runoff volume (Kaźmierczak et al., 2011).

Apparently, land use and evapotranspiring surfaces proportion have effects on water behavior and flooding. Housing type as one of the city features affects the risk of flooding. Housing units which are located at or below ground level or housing with low floor are more frequently exposed to flood (Kaźmierczak et al., 2011). Lightweight constructions are more affected by flooding than solid masonry building. In addition, risk of flooding is associated with natural feature, slope, topography and land use as well (Kaźmierczak et al., 2011). As a result, urban area where once seen as a safety place, nowadays face to different disasters and risks (White, 2008).

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Based on the above argument it can be inferred that various criteria might increase the risk of flooding and flood vulnerability. Hence to find the criteria that contribute to the risk of flooding and appropriate method to evaluate the criteria seems necessary to mitigate the risk. Therefore, providing effective geospatial information by using information and communication technology can provide proper basis to improve the decisions which are made in planning system and development (Chandio et al., 2012).

1.2 Background of the Study

In Malaysia floods are known as the most common natural hazards due to the heavy rainfall that causes some destruction every year. During 1956–2007, the number of victims of flooding has estimated around 2.7 million people. In Malaysia 9% of total land that occupies an area of 29,000 km2 which includes 23% of total urban area are located in flood prone areas. Due to the lack of appropriate measure for development control, the annual cost of flooding in the country is estimated RM100 million (Khailani and Perera, 2013). Flood as a common natural hazard within the country has effects on environmental, economic and social aspects of people’s life. Mitigating the effects of flood on different aspects of society can ensure more sustainable development.

Therefore, emphasis on physical adaptations and effective criteria to reduce the risk of flood in built environment and vulnerability of settlements through planning and development interventions for making the human settlement more sustainable during natural hazards is an essential term (Khailani and Perera, 2013).

Morphology, natural situation and artificial element must be considered in risk assessment and future development. Recognizing built and natural elements 4 which are affected the risk of flooding within the area can be considered as an important part of evaluating flood hazard. In addition, the risk of flooding is higher in more urbanized area (Morelli et al., 2012). Therefore, to find out the reasons and criteria that increase the risk of flood exposure must be considered.

Furthermore during last decade Malaysia accelerate urbanization trend and also deforestation can be observed within the country (Malaysia National Physical Plan, 2010). Due to this situation more area expose to the risk of flooding. Different urban features that can increase the amount of runoff and the risk of flooding can be observed within the urbanized area. Percentage of impervious surface is remarkably high in cities. This character can affect the rainfall infiltration, inundation and flood damages (Tingsanchali, 2012). Hence identifying all the criteria which are associated with the risk of flood can lead the planners toward sustainable development.

Besides the destructive environmental effect flood hazard also has economic and social effect especially in urban area that affect the development in direct and indirect ways (Tingsanchali, 2012). Hence, evaluating the data about stream flow and the effects of land use can help us to reduce loss of social capital and property.

1.3 Problem Statement

Iskandar Malaysia is situated on the South of Peninsular Malaysia and it is considered as a very special and strategic location. Because of its location, it became the most popular gateway from South. Based on National Physical Plan rapid urban growth can be observed in the area.

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In terms of weather, study area is under tropical weather with the different daily temperature from 24ºC until 32ºC. Overall, the topographic condition is up to 640 meters above sea level and the lowest is about 2 meters from sea level. Average annual rainfall is 1778 mm with average temperature of between 25.5 °C (78 °F) and 27.8 °C (82 °F). Humidity is between 82% and 86% (www.mbjb.gov.my). Basically, in recent years due to the heavy rainfall the region faced several damages because of flood. Therefore, to find the character within the study area which are increased the risk of flooding can be helpful to reduce the number of victims and property loss.

In addition, rapid urban growth and deforestation within the region make the situation more remarkable. Flood hazard recognizes as environmental phenomenon but it can affect other components of sustainability including social and economic aspects as well. One of the main goals of Malaysia National Physical Plan is promote the current situation toward the sustainable development (Malaysia National Physical Plan, 2010). Therefore, going through sustainability strategy and following the National Physical Plan framework needs to find out effective criteria which are associated with sustainability and risk of flooding. Evaluating the identified criteria can provide an appropriate basis for future development especially in developing area and mitigate the risk in current and future situation.

1.4 Research Questions

This research is conducted to find out the appropriate answer for questions below:

 Which criteria contribute to the risk of flooding?  To what extent do criteria associate with the risk of flooding?  Which place within the study area face higher risk of flooding? 6

 How to mitigate the flood vulnerability with respect to flood susceptibility map?

1.5 Objectives of Study

This study aims to evaluate the effect of urban form on the flood vulnerability in urban areas. Objectives of the study are mentioned below:

 To investigate the main criteria which are associated with flood risk  To evaluate degree of importance for criteria that increase the risk of flooding  To generate flood susceptibility map with respect to defined criteria  To examine the impact of significant criteria which contribute to the flood vulnerability for evaluating future development

1.6 Significance of Study

Flood is identified as the most common type of natural disaster and has occurred more intensive and recurrent in recent year (Alderman et al., 2012). Different conditions such as climate change, global warming, heavy rainfall, rising level of sea, high tides and manmade factors including more urbanized area, inappropriate land use, deforestation, aggravation of drainage channels and etc. increase the risk of flood occurrence (Tingsanchali, 2012). Environmental devastation, social and economic loss can be observed obviously as an outcome of 7 this phenomenon. Actually different environmental, social and economic aspects of society are affected by flooding. Therefore, addressing the measures that can mitigate the effects of the flood seems necessary.

This study carries out in the Southern Malaysia where flood is a dominant natural disaster. Also rapid urbanization and deforestation can be observed within the area clearly. Furthermore, this area is coastal area in which the risk of flooding is high due to the low lying level (Tingsanchali, 2012). Moreover urbanized area experience more social and property loss when the flood hazard occurs. Due to the many changes which are happened during urbanization trend such as green space devastation and generating more impervious surfaces, risk of flooding has been increased in urban area (Tingsanchali, 2012). Hence, it can be concluded that natural and manmade situation affect the risk of flooding in the study area. Therefore investigating the criteria which contribute to the risk of flooding is necessary to find out the appropriate direction for future development and measures for mitigating the risk of flooding and its effect.

1.7 Research Methodology

Methodology is a systematic process of collecting, organizing and analyzing data which is selected based on the research objective. Methods that will be used through conducting the research are described below. Research methodology to conduct the research will be elaborated in chapter 3.

I. To investigate the main urban form criteria which are associated with flood risk in urban area, different sources is reviewed to find out relevant criteria which contribute to the risk of flood. 8

II. To evaluate degree of importance for criteria, Fuzzy logic can be operated to analyze the criteria and alternatives which are extracted through literature review. III. To examine the impact of significant criteria combination between Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Fuzzy Logic by using Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) can be carried out to create flood susceptibility map. GIS provide basis for criteria computation and can be used in spatial analysis and modeling while a Fuzzy logic provide basis for categorizing and ranking the criteria.

1.8 Research Design and Organization

A research design can be recognized as blueprint or framework for shedding light into the procedure and provide bases for conducting the research. It can be defined as a tool to gain the research questions. Six factors which are mentioned below identified by Sekaran (1992) as research design elements:

i. Type of investigation: Type of investigation includes experimental, descriptive or comparative research. ii. Purpose of the study: Purpose of study indicates the goal of research that can be descriptive, exploratory or hypothesis testing. iii. Research limitation: each research has its own limitation in terms of researcher and specific field of science where the research will be carried out; a research design defines all limitation. iv. Setting the goals of the study: Goals of the study must be adjusted before beginning the research. Study goals give the researcher clear direction and also it is necessary part of research design. 9 v. Measures that are related to analysis: Each research includes various indicators as input or output to be measured. These indicators must be defined clearly in research design. vi. Research scheduling regards to time: The final part of research design is recognized as time scheduling. In some experimental research different factors such as production life span or perishable material can be affected by timing. All the research must follow the scheduling which can be used as helpful tools to get output from the process by regarding to the time.

Chapter1

Chapter 1 includes an introduction to the research and its significance. Research question and objectives are introduced in this chapter as well, followed by research methodology to conduct the research.

Chapter 2

Chapter 2 discusses about relevant terms to provide clear understanding about the subject. Causes and effects of flooding are investigated. Relevant researches are revised to find out the criteria which are associated with the risk of flooding to be the source of criteria and indicators selection.

Chapter 3

Chapter 3 presents the research structure and main method that are used to conduct the research. Data preparation trend by using Fuzzy method and Weighted Linear Combination in Geographic Information system environment discusses as well. 10

Chapter 4

Chapter 4 elaborates the data analysis, result and finding of the research. The main aim of this chapter is to indicate the area with high level of risk and find out the significant criteria which contribute to the risk and compare the different situation.

Chapter 5

Chapter 5 sums up the research finding, also presents some potential for uses of the outcome of the research and recommend suggestions regarding the current and future situation.

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