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Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean Coast, Including San Andrés Island, to Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, 1900–2010

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Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean Coast, Including San Andrés Island, to Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, 1900–2010 Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast, including San Andrés Island, to tropical storms and hurricanes, 1900–2010 Juan Carlos Ortiz Royero Natural Hazards Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards ISSN 0921-030X Volume 61 Number 2 Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815-827 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0069-1 1 23 Your article is protected by copyright and all rights are held exclusively by Springer Science+Business Media B.V.. This e-offprint is for personal use only and shall not be self- archived in electronic repositories. If you wish to self-archive your work, please use the accepted author’s version for posting to your own website or your institution’s repository. You may further deposit the accepted author’s version on a funder’s repository at a funder’s request, provided it is not made publicly available until 12 months after publication. 1 23 Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815–827 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0069-1 ORIGINAL PAPER Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast, including San Andre´s Island, to tropical storms and hurricanes, 1900–2010 Juan Carlos Ortiz Royero Received: 4 August 2011 / Accepted: 14 December 2011 / Published online: 27 December 2011 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract An analysis of the exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast to the effect of tropical storms and hurricanes was conducted using historical records from between 1900 and 2010. The Colombian Caribbean coast is approximately 1,760 km long, and the main coastal cities in this important region are Riohacha (RIO), Santa Marta (STA), Barranquilla (BAQ), and Cartagena (CTG). The surface extension of the Colombian Caribbean is almost 590,000 km2. The cumulative number of events was used to determine the exposure and to identify the most vulnerable zones on the continental coast of Colombia and in the country’s insular Caribbean. Although the Colombian Caribbean coast is not registered as a potentially vulnerable zone in international dat- abases, there have been significant events in the region, some of which even hit land. The results show that the island of San Andre´s (SA) and the Department of Guajira are the zones most likely to be affected by storms in the Colombian Caribbean. Hurricane Joan in October of 1988 has been the most devastating event in the history of hurricanes in Colombian waters. Keywords Hurricanes Á Caribbean Á Colombia Á Climatology 1 Introduction Hurricanes are a very common phenomenon in the Atlantic Ocean. There, they develop over warm waters between June and November, with surface winds playing an important role in their formation. In general, hurricanes form over the Atlantic due to the conver- gence of easterly winds on the West African coast, as explained in Mo et al. (2001). The historical distribution shows that the Atlantic zone, including the Caribbean Sea, experi- ences 11% of hurricanes, whereas the Western Pacific zone features the highest percentage J. C. Ortiz Royero (&) Departamento de Fı´sica, Universidad del Norte, Km 5 a Puerto Colombia, Barranquilla, Colombia e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 123 Author's personal copy 816 Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815–827 of hurricanes at 39% according to Rubiera (2005). As seen in Fig. 1, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season. Historically, the southeastern coasts of the United States and the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba) have been the zones most affected by hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea. Researching North America, Zandbergen (2008) provides detailed infor- mation regarding the hurricanes that have hit the coasts of the United States since 1823. Shapiro and Goldenberg (1997) provide a detailed analysis of the relationship between surface sea temperature (SST) and cyclone formation in the Atlantic, demonstrating the lack of correlation between this factor and major hurricanes and implying that the underlying SST is not a significant factor in the development of the cyclones. Meanwhile, Bell and Ray (2004) calculate the radial profiles of earth-relative wind speeds using the Hurricane Research Division flight-level data archive for 1977–1999 North Atlantic hur- ricanes. The most important conclusions were as follows: (1) the two-parameter radius of maximum wind and maximum wind speed explain sufficient variance in hurricane-force wind radii (especially for minimal hurricanes) to warrant the development of a model that would predict hurricane-force wind radii based on these two storm parameters and (2) hurricane-loss modelers can benefit from the cumulative probability distributions that are generated. Few studies have been conducted in Central America, although government agencies have conducted some studies that have analyzed the damages and human casualties caused by hurricanes. Rubiera (2005) presents a general study of the Caribbean region, pointing out that one of the most active cycles occurred during the first half of the twentieth century. Between the 1920s and the 1950s, the Caribbean zone was affected by devastating hur- ricanes. The most devastating hurricane on the island of Cuba, for example, was in 1932, which affected the southern zone of Santa Cruz. There were approximately 3,033 deaths. The second most devastating hurricane was Flora in 1963, which caused approximately 1,200 deaths. Gray (1984) showed how hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is affected by the ENSO phenomenon or El Nin˜o-Southern Oscillation. In general, Atlantic hurricane activity is reduced during El Nin˜o and increased during La Nin˜a. Fig. 1 The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to November 30. Source: http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/season.htm 123 Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815–827 817 Although little has been published regarding the impact of hurricanes in Colombia, the following studies are worth highlighting: Ortiz and Mercado (2006) produced a study of the impact of extreme swell conditions from hurricanes on the Magdalena River Delta, which corresponds to the entrance of the Barranquilla Port. Ortiz (2007) points out the relationship between storms and hurricanes that have crossed through Colombian waters since 1900 but does not analyze the characteristics and potential effects of these storms. Ortiz et al. (2008) created a simulation of the winds and swell generated by Hurricane Joan in 1988. A similar study of Hurricane Lenny was also conducted in 1999 (Ortiz 2009). The purpose of this article is to analyze the current state of knowledge regarding hurricanes that have affected Colombia based on historical records from between 1900 and 2010 and thereby to establish the degree of vulnerability of the Colombian coast given the frequency and intensity of the storms in this zone of the Caribbean Sea. 2 Description of study area The Caribbean Sea borders South America to the south, Central America to the west, the Lesser Antilles to the east, and the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico) to the north. It is connected to the Gulf of Mexico by the Yucatan channel to the northwest and to the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the east. Fig- ure 1 shows the Colombian Caribbean and the location of the island of San Andre´s. The Colombian Caribbean coast is approximately 1,760 km long, and the main coastal cities in this important region are Riohacha (RIO), Santa Marta (STA), Barranquilla (BAQ), and Cartagena (CTG). The surface extension of the Colombian Caribbean is close to 590,000 km2. These sea and river port cities are of great economic importance for Colombia’s economy. Of the four cities, the one with the largest population is Barranquilla (2,400,000 inhabitants), followed by Cartagena (1,200,000 inhabitants), Santa Marta (415,000 inhabitants), and Riohacha (150,000 inhabitants). The first three districts form an urban-port passageway for the coastal Colombian Caribbean, where more than 40% of the population of the Colombian Caribbean is concentrated. The most popular recreational swimming pools, visited by tourists year-round, are also found here, with the busiest tourist seasons occurring from June to July and from December to January. The most visited locations include El Rodadero (STA), Puerto Colombia (BAQ), and Bocagrande (CTG). Bocagrande has historical zones featuring seventeenth century castles and city walls, making it the main tourist destination in Colombia. Puerto Bolı´var, which is 166 km from Riohacha, is the largest port in the Colombian Caribbean. The coal from the Cerrejo´n Mines, 150 km to the south, is the main export from this port, where boats carrying up to 175,000 tons of cargo are received (Viloria 2006). San Andre´s is located in the Caribbean Sea, approximately 192 km to the east of Nicaragua, northeast of Costa Rica, and 775 km to the northeast of the Colombian coast. San Andre´s Island is the largest of the islands in San Andre´s, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Archipelago and has a total area of 26 km2. It has belonged to Colombia since 1803. The northeastern part of the island is surrounded by a small coral reef and several cays that are home to a variety of marine flora and fauna, which attract crowds of tourists every year (approximately 350,000). San Andre´s has an approximate population of 75,000 inhabitants (Meisel 2003) (Fig. 2). 123 Author's personal copy 818 Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815–827 Fig. 2 Bathy-topography map of Colombian territorial waters and the island of San Andre´s. The red crosses correspond to CTG, BAQ, STA, and RIO, and the red circle corresponds to San Andre´s Island 3 Methodology 3.1 Databases The HURDAT (HURricane DATa) database, which is available at http://weather.unisys.
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