Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast, including San Andrés Island, to tropical storms and hurricanes, 1900–2010

Juan Carlos Ortiz Royero

Natural Hazards Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards

ISSN 0921-030X Volume 61 Number 2

Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815-827 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0069-1

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1 23 Author's personal copy

Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815–827 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0069-1

ORIGINAL PAPER

Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast, including San Andre´s Island, to tropical storms and hurricanes, 1900–2010

Juan Carlos Ortiz Royero

Received: 4 August 2011 / Accepted: 14 December 2011 / Published online: 27 December 2011 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Abstract An analysis of the exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast to the effect of tropical storms and hurricanes was conducted using historical records from between 1900 and 2010. The Colombian Caribbean coast is approximately 1,760 km long, and the main coastal cities in this important region are Riohacha (RIO), Santa Marta (STA), Barranquilla (BAQ), and Cartagena (CTG). The surface extension of the Colombian Caribbean is almost 590,000 km2. The cumulative number of events was used to determine the exposure and to identify the most vulnerable zones on the continental coast of Colombia and in the country’s insular Caribbean. Although the Colombian Caribbean coast is not registered as a potentially vulnerable zone in international dat- abases, there have been significant events in the region, some of which even hit land. The results show that the island of San Andre´s (SA) and the Department of Guajira are the zones most likely to be affected by storms in the Colombian Caribbean. Hurricane Joan in October of 1988 has been the most devastating event in the history of hurricanes in Colombian waters.

Keywords Hurricanes Á Caribbean Á Colombia Á Climatology

1 Introduction

Hurricanes are a very common phenomenon in the Atlantic Ocean. There, they develop over warm waters between June and November, with surface winds playing an important role in their formation. In general, hurricanes form over the Atlantic due to the conver- gence of easterly winds on the West African coast, as explained in Mo et al. (2001). The historical distribution shows that the Atlantic zone, including the Caribbean Sea, experi- ences 11% of hurricanes, whereas the Western Pacific zone features the highest percentage

J. C. Ortiz Royero (&) Departamento de Fı´sica, Universidad del Norte, Km 5 a Puerto Colombia, Barranquilla, Colombia e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 123 Author's personal copy

816 Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815–827 of hurricanes at 39% according to Rubiera (2005). As seen in Fig. 1, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season. Historically, the southeastern coasts of the United States and the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba) have been the zones most affected by hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea. Researching North America, Zandbergen (2008) provides detailed infor- mation regarding the hurricanes that have hit the coasts of the United States since 1823. Shapiro and Goldenberg (1997) provide a detailed analysis of the relationship between surface sea temperature (SST) and cyclone formation in the Atlantic, demonstrating the lack of correlation between this factor and major hurricanes and implying that the underlying SST is not a significant factor in the development of the cyclones. Meanwhile, Bell and Ray (2004) calculate the radial profiles of earth-relative wind speeds using the Hurricane Research Division flight-level data archive for 1977–1999 North Atlantic hur- ricanes. The most important conclusions were as follows: (1) the two-parameter radius of maximum wind and maximum wind speed explain sufficient variance in hurricane-force wind radii (especially for minimal hurricanes) to warrant the development of a model that would predict hurricane-force wind radii based on these two storm parameters and (2) hurricane-loss modelers can benefit from the cumulative probability distributions that are generated. Few studies have been conducted in Central America, although government agencies have conducted some studies that have analyzed the damages and human casualties caused by hurricanes. Rubiera (2005) presents a general study of the Caribbean region, pointing out that one of the most active cycles occurred during the first half of the twentieth century. Between the 1920s and the 1950s, the Caribbean zone was affected by devastating hur- ricanes. The most devastating hurricane on the island of Cuba, for example, was in 1932, which affected the southern zone of Santa Cruz. There were approximately 3,033 deaths. The second most devastating hurricane was Flora in 1963, which caused approximately 1,200 deaths. Gray (1984) showed how hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is affected by the ENSO phenomenon or El Nin˜o-Southern Oscillation. In general, Atlantic hurricane activity is reduced during El Nin˜o and increased during La Nin˜a.

Fig. 1 The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to November 30. Source: http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/season.htm 123 Author's personal copy

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Although little has been published regarding the impact of hurricanes in Colombia, the following studies are worth highlighting: Ortiz and Mercado (2006) produced a study of the impact of extreme swell conditions from hurricanes on the Magdalena River Delta, which corresponds to the entrance of the Barranquilla Port. Ortiz (2007) points out the relationship between storms and hurricanes that have crossed through Colombian waters since 1900 but does not analyze the characteristics and potential effects of these storms. Ortiz et al. (2008) created a simulation of the winds and swell generated by Hurricane Joan in 1988. A similar study of Hurricane Lenny was also conducted in 1999 (Ortiz 2009). The purpose of this article is to analyze the current state of knowledge regarding hurricanes that have affected Colombia based on historical records from between 1900 and 2010 and thereby to establish the degree of vulnerability of the Colombian coast given the frequency and intensity of the storms in this zone of the Caribbean Sea.

2 Description of study area

The Caribbean Sea borders South America to the south, Central America to the west, the Lesser Antilles to the east, and the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico) to the north. It is connected to the Gulf of Mexico by the Yucatan channel to the northwest and to the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the east. Fig- ure 1 shows the Colombian Caribbean and the location of the island of San Andre´s. The Colombian Caribbean coast is approximately 1,760 km long, and the main coastal cities in this important region are Riohacha (RIO), Santa Marta (STA), Barranquilla (BAQ), and Cartagena (CTG). The surface extension of the Colombian Caribbean is close to 590,000 km2. These sea and river port cities are of great economic importance for Colombia’s economy. Of the four cities, the one with the largest population is Barranquilla (2,400,000 inhabitants), followed by Cartagena (1,200,000 inhabitants), Santa Marta (415,000 inhabitants), and Riohacha (150,000 inhabitants). The first three districts form an urban-port passageway for the coastal Colombian Caribbean, where more than 40% of the population of the Colombian Caribbean is concentrated. The most popular recreational swimming pools, visited by tourists year-round, are also found here, with the busiest tourist seasons occurring from June to July and from December to January. The most visited locations include El Rodadero (STA), Puerto Colombia (BAQ), and Bocagrande (CTG). Bocagrande has historical zones featuring seventeenth century castles and city walls, making it the main tourist destination in Colombia. Puerto Bolı´var, which is 166 km from Riohacha, is the largest port in the Colombian Caribbean. The coal from the Cerrejo´n Mines, 150 km to the south, is the main export from this port, where boats carrying up to 175,000 tons of cargo are received (Viloria 2006). San Andre´s is located in the Caribbean Sea, approximately 192 km to the east of Nicaragua, northeast of Costa Rica, and 775 km to the northeast of the Colombian coast. San Andre´s Island is the largest of the islands in San Andre´s, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Archipelago and has a total area of 26 km2. It has belonged to Colombia since 1803. The northeastern part of the island is surrounded by a small coral reef and several cays that are home to a variety of marine flora and fauna, which attract crowds of tourists every year (approximately 350,000). San Andre´s has an approximate population of 75,000 inhabitants (Meisel 2003) (Fig. 2).

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Fig. 2 Bathy-topography map of Colombian territorial waters and the island of San Andre´s. The red crosses correspond to CTG, BAQ, STA, and RIO, and the red circle corresponds to San Andre´s Island

3 Methodology

3.1 Databases

The HURDAT (HURricane DATa) database, which is available at http://weather.unisys. com/hurricane/index.html, was analyzed in this study. This database, which belongs to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is the largest official database containing historical records for the storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The HURDAT database is widely used worldwide for different purposes, including addressing coastal risks, analyzing potential losses, verifying and validating models, and analyzing climate change, among others. The storms that hit the Colombian Caribbean Sea were analyzed and quantified using the grids located between 68° and 84° WEST and between 8° and 16° NORTH as the geographical domain. The methodology described in Zandbergen (2008) was used to calculate the vulnera- bility of the territory. The cumulative number of impacts was analyzed, and a qualitative analysis was conducted of the distance from the eye of each hurricane to the coast and of its sustained wind speed. According to Ortiz (2007), approximately 57 storms have passed through the Colombian Caribbean prior to 2008; however, three events that occurred in 2008, 2009, and 2010 also need to be included: Paloma in 2008, Ida in 2009, and Tomas in 2010. This addition increases the number of events to 60 in 110 years. Figure 3 shows the activity of all of the storms between 1900 and 2010.

3.2 Significant events

According to Willoughby and Rahn (2004), the damage caused by storm winds is confined to a radius of no more than 100 to 150 km. Even if the eye of the storm is outside of this range, effects such as deep-sea waves, rain, and ocean swells can pose a hazard for coastal areas. Figure 4 shows the most significant events caused by the proximity of the eye to the 123 Author's personal copy

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Fig. 3 Historical trajectory of storms and hurricanes in the Colombian Caribbean, 1900–2010

Colombian coast. Additionally, satellite images providing meteorological information regarding the events were inserted using Google EarthÒ and the HURSAT (HURricane SATelite data) tool. Unfortunately, these images are not available for the 1909 or 1911 storms or for Irene (1971), as can be observed in Fig. 5 a and b. Figure 6a–c shows a satellite photograph of the most significant storms in the Colombian Caribbean Sea. Table 1 summarizes the characteristics of the six events that have significantly affected the continental portion of the Colombian Caribbean. The closest distance between the eye of the storm and the main coastal cities was calculated, as was the intensity of the strongest winds at that moment.

Fig. 4 Historical trajectory of storms and hurricanes with a distance of less than 150 km from the hurricane eye 123 Author's personal copy

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Fig. 5 a Historical trajectories of Joan 1988 (middle), Bret 1993 (bottom), and Cesar 1996 (top) and the location of the main cities of the Colombian Caribbean based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data. b Historical trajectories of Joan 1988 (pink and red), Cesar 1996 (yellow), and Beta 2005 (green) near San Andre´s Island in the Colombian Caribbean based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data

The insular Caribbean zone of Colombia includes the archipelago of San Andre´s, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, which is composed of three main islands and a group of smaller islands, atolls, and coral reefs. With an extension of approximately 300,000 km2,

Fig. 6 a Satellite image of Joan 1988 based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data. c b Satellite image of Cesar 1996 based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data. c Satellite image of Beta 2005 based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data 123 Author's personal copy

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Table 1 Storms and hurricanes near the Colombian Caribbean coast Name Category Date Closest distance Maximum to coast (km) wind (km/h)

Storm No. 10 Tropical storm 1909-10-06 RIO (350.6) 55.6 STA (205.5) 55.6 BAQ (75) 55.6 CTG (64) 74.1 Storm No. 4 Tropical storm 1911-09-07 RIO (130.6) 101.9 STA (208.3) 101.9 BAQ (270) 101.9 CTG (375) 101.9 IRENE Tropical storm 1971-09-17 RIO (108) 64.8 STA (133) 64.8 BAQ (160) 64.8 CTG (228) 64.8 JOAN Tropical storm 1988-10-18 RIO (26) 111.1 H1 STA (64) 120.3 H1 BAQ (79) 129.6 H1 CTG (116) 138.9 BRET Tropical storm 1993-08-09 RIO (120) 74.1 STA (60) 74.1 BAQ (46) 74.1 CTG (107) 64.8 CESAR Tropical storm 1996-07-26 RIO (96) 74.1 STA (115) 83.3 BAQ (174) 83.3 CTG (150) 92.6 the archipelago accounts for almost 10% of the total Colombian Caribbean zone. It is home to the second largest barrier reef in the Caribbean, one of the most productive marine- coastal systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Colombia. The northern and western sides of the island of San Andre´s are permanently exposed to winds; in some months, such as January and February, these winds can reach a speed of 18.5 m/s, which, if sustained, can cause significant surges. San Andre´s has been affected by the same hurricanes that have hit Providencia, although the intensity has been lower. Cyclonic activity in the archipelago has been more intense than on the continental coast. Figure 7 shows the trajectories of the storms occurring close to the islands since 1851. Until 2010, the seven most significant events, given their proximity to this zone of the Colombian Caribbean, have been Storm No. 4 in 1911, Hattie in 1961, Alma in 1970, Joan in 1988, Cesar in 1996, Katrina in 1999, and Beta in 2005. Table 2 summarizes the characteristics of these events.

4 Results and discussion

The previous results show that a total of 10 storms significantly affected the Colombian Caribbean during the period between 1900 and 2010. The continental area was affected by 123 Author's personal copy

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Fig. 7 Trajectories of the events that have affected the archipelago since 1851 (Plazas et al. 2011)

Table 2 Storms and hurricanes close to the Archipelago of San Andre´s Name Category Date Closest distance Maximum to coast (km) wind (km/h)

Storm No. 4 H1 1911-09-09 89 138.9 HATTIE Tropical storm 1961-09-17 60.1 101.8 ALMA Tropical depression 1970-05-18 131.1 46.3 JOAN H3 1988-19-21 73.8 203.7 CESAR Tropical storm 1996-07-28 62.7 120.4 KATRINA Tropical depression 199-10-29 60.5 55.6 BETA Tropical storm 2005-10-28 70 92.6

6 storms (5 tropical storms and a Category 1 hurricane), whereas the insular area was affected by 7 storms (1 tropical depression, 3 tropical storms, a Category 1 hurricane, and a Category 3 hurricane), as shown in Fig. 8. Of the ten events, four have hit land: (1) Storm No. 4 of 1911, which struck the island of San Andre´s after having been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane; (2) Joan 1988, which was a category 1 hurricane while it was off the continental coast of Colombia but hit land as a tropical storm; (3) Bret 1993, which hit the Caribbean coast as a tropical storm; and (4) Cesar 1996, which hit land as a tropical storm. Thus, the continental portion of the Colombian Caribbean has only been hit by tropical storms, whereas the archipelago of San Andre´s experienced a Category 1 hurricane. Even if they do not hit land or if the eye is farther than 150 km away, hurricanes can produce significant secondary effects such as rains and ocean swells. On this basis, we defined four zones according to the frequency of storms in each one. Thus, we established that the area of the Colombian Caribbean that is most vulnerable to storms is the archi- pelago of San Andre´s (AREA 1), followed by the continental coast. With respect to the 123 Author's personal copy

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Fig. 8 Events that have affected the Colombian Caribbean coast—1900–2010

latter, it was observed that RIO (AREA 2), together with the entire coast of the Department of Guajira, is the second most vulnerable area, followed by BAQ, STA, CTG (AREA 3), and finally, by the Gulf of Uraba´ zone (AREA 4), which is the southernmost portion of the coast, and hence the most sheltered from cyclonic activity. Figure 9 shows the number of events in each zone; Figure 10 presents a descriptive vulnerability map based on the number of events, where 1 represents the greatest vulnerability and 4 the least. One of the most significant events was Hurricane Joan in 1988. On October 10 at 18:00 (local time), tropical depression #11 from the Central Atlantic cyclonic season formed (8.90°N and 42.20°W). On October 18 at 18:00 (local time), it became a Category 1 hurricane featuring maximum winds of 120 km/h and 990 mb of pressure. Only 1 day later, Joan had reached Category 2 status and entered the zone known as the Gulf of Darie´n, close to Panama´. According to the newspaper El Tiempo, the city of Cartagena, called ‘‘La Heroica,’’ suffered serious flooding associated with storm surge and rain (Fig. 11). The route through the city Barranquilla to Cartagena was partially destroyed by the increased water level in the streams flowing from the Caribbean Sea, which pass through this zone. Some 660 tourists were evacuated from San Andre´s Island. There are no official reports of the damage incurred, but it is estimated that 25 thousand people were affected in Cartagena and approximately 50 thousand throughout the Colombian coast. In Santa Marta, waves of

Fig. 9 Events that have affected each of the vulnerable zones since 1900 123 Author's personal copy

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Fig. 10 Vulnerability to the impact of hurricanes in the Colombian Caribbean. The number 1 represents the greatest vulnerability and 4 the least

Fig. 11 Flood produced by Hurricane Joan in 1988 in Cartagena (called ‘La Heroica’). The Times newspaper, historical archive. October 21, 1988 up to 6 m and flooding of the main avenue were observed, which affected commercial spaces. There are no official reports of deaths and damage caused by Hurricane Joan in the Colombian Caribbean. The city of Riohacha, which was the closest to the eye of the hurricane (26 km), was hit by 111.1 km/h winds, and Cartagena, which was located at a distance of 116 km from the 123 Author's personal copy

826 Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815–827 eye of the storm, endured winds of 138.9 km/h. In the insular Caribbean, the situation is much more dangerous. In 1971, the eye of Hurricane Hattie was 60.1 km from the coast of the island of San Andre´s, with maximum winds of 101.1 km/h, and in 1988, Joan was 73.8 km from the southern coast of the island, with maximum winds of 203 km/h. Undoubtedly, Joan was the most devastating hurricane in the history of the Colombian Caribbean (Ortiz et al. 2008). Although the eye of Hurricane Lenny in 1999 was distant from the Colombian continental coast, its atypical trajectory (West-Northeast) also pro- duced significant effects. The simulation of this hurricane that was carried out in Ortiz (2009) proves that if Lenny’s trajectory had occurred at lower latitude, it would have caused considerable damage because its winds would have hit the Colombian coast perpendicularly.

5 Conclusions

This paper presents a historical analysis of storms and hurricanes that have caused con- siderable damage in Colombian territory due to the proximity of their eye. Although the Colombian Caribbean coast is not registered as a potentially vulnerable zone in interna- tional databases, it was possible to determine that there have been significant events in the region, some of which even hit land. The analysis made it possible to identify ten sig- nificant events that have occurred since 1900 and to determine the vulnerability of the Colombian territory to storms and hurricanes. Furthermore, it was possible to establish four areas of vulnerability as follows: area 1 (greatest vulnerability), the Archipelago of San Andre´s; area 2 (medium vulnerability), the coastal zone of the Department of Guajira; area 3 (medium–low vulnerability), the coast of the Departments of Atla´ntico and Bolı´var; and area 4 (low vulnerability), the coast of the Departments of Co´rdoba and Antioquia. The most destructive event in Colombia’s continental Caribbean zone was the move- ment of Hurricane Joan through the city of Riohacha in October 1988. The eye of the storm was approximately 26 km from the coast, and the sustained wind speed was 111.1 km/h. In its westward trajectory, the storm was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, and its eye was 64, 79, and 116 km from the port cities of Barranquilla, Santa Marta, and Cartagena, respectively, with sustained wind speeds of approximately 130 km/h. The coastal zones of Cartagena and Santa Marta were severely affected by swell and were flooded by the storm surge. Several thoroughfares collapsed from the rain produced, and approximately 50 thousand people were affected. There are no cost reports of damages incurred or death tolls associated with the hurricane. Hurricane Joan in October 1988 was also a very destructive event in the insular Caribbean zone of Colombia. The eye of the storm was approximately 78 km from the island of San Andre´s, with a sustained wind speed of 203.7 km/h, when it was upgraded to a powerful Category 3 hurricane. These results show that it is necessary to establish a hurricane alert and mitigation program for the Caribbean coast of Colombia. This type of program, which does not currently exist, is indispensable for the insular zone and for the northeastern continental coast of Colombia because these are the most vulnerable areas according to the results of the study. Although an eastward trajectory such as Lenny’s is not very common, it could cause considerable damage to the coastal region of Colombia.

Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the Office of Research and Projects (DIDI) at the Universidad del Norte.

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