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36 | The Big Gamble 25 | Carriers stricken by COVID-19 SPACE A look at the flight paths cheer ICAO’s Corsia change 68 | NASA rover is one of three forward for commercial Mars 2020 missions aviation after the pandemic 26 | Pandemic spurs big changes in Asia-Pacific fleet strategies 69 | First all-Chinese Mars 44 | Encouraging Cooperation mission to deploy rover EU initiatives could give the CONNECTED AEROSPACE European defense industry a 28 | How aviation can deal with 70 | OneWeb purchase could pave leg up post-COVID-19 the “data link dilemma” way to UK sovereign GNSS

52 | Tempest’s Global Push PROPULSION ASK THE EDITORS Manned-unmanned teaming 30 | ZeroAvia prepares for hydro- 71 | Can Boeing regain lead after and combat cloud technologies gen fuel-cell flight tests MAX issues, A320 growth? are key disruptors in Europe’s Future Combat Air System DEFENSE 71 | Will the A220 and E2 continue 40 | Australian strategy pivots; to compete post-pandemic? 62 | Next Stop Jezero Crater spending plans change little NASA is about to launch VIEWPOINT its first Mars life-detection 49 | European cooperation is 74 | GPS has big problems, but mission since Voyager facing down tanker shortfalls Ligado is not one of them

COMMERCIAL AVIATION ON THE COVER 18 | Revamped 737 MAX training Since the economic crisis of 2008, European nations have been banding together under new prioritizes info for pilots cooperative agreements to pool research and development that could lead to a generation of new weaponry. London Bureau Chief Tony Osborne’s report begins on page 44. Aviation Week 20 | Familiar risks seen in Pakistan cover concept based on an image by khvost/Getty Images. A320 accident sequence Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST

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AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell WITH YOUR LEGACY PRODUCT LINE Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Licensing or divesting a product line through Ontic’s proven Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Extended Life Solutions Program empowers OEMs to eliminate Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso the burdens of challenging product lines and gain the capital Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries that funds future growth. Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production To Learn More Visit Ontic.com or Call 855-668-4235 Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon Go beyond the news of the day Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow with Aviation Week Intelligence Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Network’s Market Brieﬁ ngs. Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] These sector-specifi c intelligence Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] briefi ngs empower busy executives Wichita to stay-ahead of the market, identify Molly McMillin [email protected] opportunities and drive revenue. President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton LEARN MORE: Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK

Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] RULES to be generated artiﬁ cially. Any leak

Executive Editors OF ENGAGEMENT will be deadly. And clouds of atmo- Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Tony Osborne’s excellent two- spheric dust will make cleaning space Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] part series on awesome air-to- suits and outside equipment di cult. Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] air missile capability available today Also, I understand that Mars’ soil is Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Editors (June 1-14, p. 34 and June 15-28, p. 28) full of poisons, making it impossible to Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, left me reminiscing about the AIM-7E3 use it to grow a local food source. Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- and AIM-9J missiles we carried on our All in all, due to the many dangers Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, F-4Es. Crude by today’s standards, of long-term human space travel and Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, there was one limitation we had that earning its place as an aeronautical any colonization on Mars and given the Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble wasn’t mentioned in this article: rules standard: “maximum lift,” “At high . . . amazing successes of robots like the Fred George Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor of engagement (ROE). They can di er lift” and “achievable lift,” where the Curiosity spacecraft, the planet would Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt by theater and can have a dramatic subject—coe cient/CL—is absent. be far better served by continuing to Andrea Hollowell Associate Managing Editor e ect on air-to-air missile employment Thereby clarity is absent. The state- send robots to explore (and save bil- Lisa Caputo WITH YOUR LEGACY PRODUCT LINE Art Director and e ectiveness. Noncooperative ments, and others similar, are thus lions of dollars in the process). So far, Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Artists target recognition (NCTR) systems misleading by their ending term “lift,” nothing has been discovered during Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Copy Editors were in their infancy during the Viet- a reigning grammatical usage driving many unmanned robot explorations to Licensing or divesting a product line through Ontic’s proven Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie nam War and were driven by the ROE misunderstanding. sacrifi ce human visitors or colonists. Extended Life Solutions Program empowers OEMs to eliminate Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Production Editors requirement to visually identify your The clarifying grammatical usage in Joseph Pries the burdens of challenging product lines and gain the capital Contributing Photographer target or confi rm hostile by “other” “Short Story”—the clarity that the lift Peter Parsons, Mission Viejo, California Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria that funds future growth. means. Hopefully, NCTR capabilities coe cient/CL is the subject, not lift— Rija Tariq Content Marketing Manager have advanced as the missile capabili- could be a pivotable point for aeronau- INTERNAL IMPERATIVE Data & Analytics ties have moved forward. If not, much tics to step away from its noted stan- As a former Marine Corps CH-46 pilot Brian Kough Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights of the new missile capability could be dard, a standard of long consequential and a Vietnam War veteran, I fi nd it

Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production unusable due to ROE restrictions. history. Aviation Week continues to incredible that the U.S. Army would To Learn More Visit Ontic.com or Call 855-668-4235 Terra Deskins raise the level of accuracy of aeronau- seriously consider buying Bell’s 360 Michael Tint Manager, Military Data Operations John Locke, Albuquerque, New Mexico tical language to reach and to match Invictus with no internal six-troop Editorial Offices the accuracy that’s demanded, nay cabin as described in “SOAR Points” 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 SEPARATION SPECIALISTS required, of the science of aeronautics. (June 1-14, p. 28). Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 As a third-generation recycler and Aside from troops being exposed to 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 avid fan of Aviation Week, I thor- Terry Golden, Minneapolis adverse weather and enemy fi re and Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 oughly enjoyed the article on recycling the possibility that pieces of personal Bureau Chiefs LEAVE IT TO ROBOTS Auckland (May 4-17, p. 32). Our trade organiza- equipment and weapons could detach Adrian [email protected] tion, the Institute of Scrap Recycling Regarding “New Era” (June 15-28, p. 22), and strike the tail rotor and other Beijing Industries, has for years pushed the covering the success of the Space X airframe parts, they would literally Bradley Perrett [email protected] idea of design for recycling. It would Falcon 9 manned launch to the Inter- be hanging out with no protection in Cape Canaveral behoove future designers of aircraft national Space Station, although the the event the helicopter went down. Irene Klotz [email protected] to consider the environment. Thierry technology continues to advance the Given the choice, I’d bet even the most Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Dubois mentions in the article the ability to get to the Moon and Mars, hardened SOCOM troopers would Frankfurt di culty of separating the high-temp little is being addressed about long- prefer to fl y into combat in an old Jens Flottau [email protected] alloys that are inside most engines. term manned spacefl ight and its hand-me-down Vietnam-era Huey Houston With today’s technologies, most impact on the human travelers. than that thing. Mark Carreau [email protected] modern scrap metal facilities are able First, the trip to Mars and back is London to do a very accurate job in separating much longer than a trip to the Moon, Arnold Reiner, Pensacola, Florida Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles and packaging the items for recycling. and radiation exposure will be signifi - Guy Norris [email protected] cant both during the trips and on the Lyon Robert B. Kimmel, Detroit surface of Mars. Second, the lack of CORRECTION Go beyond the news of the day Thierry Dubois [email protected] gravity during the long voyage and on “New Research and Technologies with Aviation Week Intelligence Moscow THE MERIT OF CLARITY the surface of Mars will have a signifi - Fuel Single-Pilot Operations Debate” Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] I am glad to see the clarifying gram- cant impact on astronauts’ physical (June 29-July 12, p. 36) should have Network’s Market Briefi ngs. Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] matical usage in “Short Story” health and mobility. Third, Mars’ atmo- stated that retired Air France captain (May 18-31, p. 49) of “maximum lift sphere is so thin, it would be di cult to and fl ight-safety consultant Bertrand These sector-specifi c intelligence Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] coe cient,” “At high . . . C ,” and land, it o ers no micro-meteorite pro- de Courville is a member of the Tou- briefi ngs empower busy executives L Wichita “achievable lift coe cient,” where the tection, and any enclosed structure on louse-based Air and Space Academy to stay-ahead of the market, identify Molly McMillin [email protected] subject—coe cient/CL—is included in the planet’s surface must be completely and the International Society of Air opportunities and drive revenue. those three statements. sealed—plus, breathable air will have Safety Investigators. President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton This clarity of usage, resulting in understanding, is in contrast to the LEARN MORE: Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon following examples of what would be Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs an alternate grammatical usage as 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: applied to those three statements, [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; examples of an all too common usage a verifi able address and daytime telephone number are required.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections Teaser: Primary Category: Roger Raley has and James Mersol, Military Industries, where he recently Secondary Category: been appointed as publications stepped down. He also held execu- president of Alpine manager. tive roles at Rheinmetall Defense Bullet Points: Advanced Materials. CDB Aviation has and Airbus. He had been TTI hired Paul Boyle as Parsons Corp., a provider of de- Inc. vice president head of commercial fense, intelligence and infrastructure of military and leasing for Europe, technology, has named U.S. Air aerospace business the Middle East and Force Gen. (ret.) Darren W. McDew (known for its thermoplastic nano- Africa. Boyle has worked for Aer and David C. Wajsgras to its board. composite HX5), and before that was Lingus, Airbus Finan cial Services, McDew was commander of U.S. with Arrow Electronics. SMBC, AerCap and Avolon. CDB is Transportation Command, and U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. (ret.) Clint a wholly owned Irish subsidiary and Wajsgras was Raytheon senior vice Crosier has been hired by Amazon the only leasing arm of the China president and chief financial officer. Web Services to lead its new business Development Bank. Cobham Advanced Electronic segment for communications compa- Twin Commander Aircraft, a main- Solutions, a data transfer provider nies, which must process and make tenance provider for twin-engine for extreme environments, has been actionable the massive quantity of airplanes, has hired Andrew Wilson acquired by Advent. Its new board of data that now transits through space. as technical service manager. Wilson directors includes CEO Shawn Black, Crosier is former U.S. Space Force had been with Dynamic Aviation as Robert F. Weiss, Mark Sirangelo, director of planning. maintenance controller and flight U.S. Air Force Gen. (ret.) Kevin Chilton, SES, the multi-orbit satellite- oper ations support. Before that, he Bob Hitt, Mark Santamaria, Shonnel constellation operator, has promoted operated his own inspection and main- Malani, Michael Marshall and Thai Rubin to chief legal officer from tenance operation, handling contract Wayne Berman. executive vice president of legal management and Skyrora has named Tim Peake to its services; he succeeds John Purvis, FAA compliance for advisory board. He is a former Euro- who will work part-time. SES CEO the U.S. Air Force. pean Space Agency astronaut, Inter- Steve Collar also becomes SES Video Electra.aero has national Space Station crew member CEO, succeeding Ferdinand Kayser, hired Marty Bradley and British Army Air Corps officer. who will retire at year-end. Kayser as a senior technical Skyrora is developing the Skyrora XL remains chairman of both the SES fellow. An American orbital launch rocket. Astra and GovSat boards. Institute of Aeronau- The National Air Transportation Former FLYHT Aerospace CEO tics and Astronautics (AIAA) fellow Association has announced its 2020-21 Bill Tempany will serve as interim CEO in electrified aircraft and sustainable board of directors. Chairman Curt and continue as a company director aviation, Bradley teaches at the Uni- Castagna was reelected, as were while FLYHT recruits a replacement versity of Southern California and Larry Wade and Clive Lowe. Newly ap- for Thomas R. Schmutz, whose CEO teaches the AIAA course “Design of pointed for three-year terms are David contract has been terminated. FLYHT Electrified Propulsion Aircraft.” He Best, Joe Gibney, also has named Barry Eccleston exec- recently retired from Boeing. Josh Hochberg and utive chairman; Eccleston retired from Mitre’s Center for Technology and John King. Airbus as president and CEO in 2017. National Security has a newly estab- Toronto-based Western Aircraft, a Greenwich Aero lished advisory board. Its members Aero Asset has Group maintenance/ include: U.S. Army Gen. (ret.) John named Philip Louis modification com- Campbell; former U.S. Air Force un- Amadeus London pany, has hired dersecretary Lisa Disbrow; U.S. Navy sales director of Tonya Wood as Adm. (ret.) Bill Gortney; Vice Adm. the helicopter brokerage. He will interiors manager. (ret.) Bob Murrett; Bob Work, former cover Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. She will oversee air- deputy secretary of Amadeus is a former Boeing 737 pilot craft refurbishment defense. as well as a helicopter pilot. according to cus- Melbourne-based Professional Aviation Associates tomer specifications. She held man- Titomic has named of Greenwich AeroGroup has hired agement positions with Gulfstream Andreas Schwer Rob Burch as a regional sales manag- Aerospace, J. Banks Design Group board chairman for er for the Northeast and Southwest and Release Marine. the additive man- regions. Burch was director of sales The Center for Strategic and Budget- ufacturer. He was for Avgroup Inc. and a Global Parts. ary Assessments has added three new the inaugural CEO of Saudi Arabian aero sales associate. c staff members:Josh Chang, as a research assistant focusing on strategy To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no and international military doctrines; PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on Regan Copple, as a research assistant companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence for East Asian security, future war- Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone fare and Great Power competition; U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections Teaser: Primary Category: Roger Raley has and James Mersol, Military Industries, where he recently Secondary Category: been appointed as publications stepped down. He also held execu- president of Alpine manager. tive roles at Rheinmetall Defense WE’RE MAKING Bullet Points: Advanced Materials. CDB Aviation has and Airbus. MORE POSSIBLE He had been TTI hired Paul Boyle as Parsons Corp., a provider of de- Inc. vice president head of commercial fense, intelligence and infrastructure of military and leasing for Europe, technology, has named U.S. Air aerospace business the Middle East and Force Gen. (ret.) Darren W. McDew (known for its thermoplastic nano- Africa. Boyle has worked for Aer and David C. Wajsgras to its board. composite HX5), and before that was Lingus, Airbus Finan cial Services, McDew was commander of U.S. with Arrow Electronics. SMBC, AerCap and Avolon. CDB is Transportation Command, and U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. (ret.) Clint a wholly owned Irish subsidiary and Wajsgras was Raytheon senior vice MORE INTELLIGENT Crosier has been hired by Amazon the only leasing arm of the China president and chief financial officer. Web Services to lead its new business Development Bank. Cobham Advanced Electronic MORE CONNECTED segment for communications compa- Twin Commander Aircraft, a main- Solutions, a data transfer provider nies, which must process and make tenance provider for twin-engine for extreme environments, has been actionable the massive quantity of airplanes, has hired Andrew Wilson acquired by Advent. Its new board of MORE ELECTRIC data that now transits through space. as technical service manager. Wilson directors includes CEO Shawn Black, Crosier is former U.S. Space Force had been with Dynamic Aviation as Robert F. Weiss, Mark Sirangelo, director of planning. maintenance controller and flight U.S. Air Force Gen. (ret.) Kevin Chilton, SES, the multi-orbit satellite- oper ations support. Before that, he Bob Hitt, Mark Santamaria, Shonnel constellation operator, has promoted operated his own inspection and main- Malani, Michael Marshall and Thai Rubin to chief legal officer from tenance operation, handling contract Wayne Berman. executive vice president of legal management and Skyrora has named Tim Peake to its services; he succeeds John Purvis, FAA compliance for advisory board. He is a former Euro- who will work part-time. SES CEO the U.S. Air Force. pean Space Agency astronaut, Inter- Steve Collar also becomes SES Video Electra.aero has national Space Station crew member CEO, succeeding Ferdinand Kayser, hired Marty Bradley and British Army Air Corps officer. who will retire at year-end. Kayser as a senior technical Skyrora is developing the Skyrora XL remains chairman of both the SES fellow. An American orbital launch rocket. Astra and GovSat boards. Institute of Aeronau- The National Air Transportation Former FLYHT Aerospace CEO tics and Astronautics (AIAA) fellow Association has announced its 2020-21 At Collins Aerospace, we’re shaping Bill Tempany will serve as interim CEO in electrified aircraft and sustainable board of directors. Chairman Curt a future that’s more intelligent, more and continue as a company director aviation, Bradley teaches at the Uni- Castagna was reelected, as were connected and more electric than ever. while FLYHT recruits a replacement versity of Southern California and Larry Wade and Clive Lowe. Newly ap- for Thomas R. Schmutz, whose CEO teaches the AIAA course “Design of pointed for three-year terms are David contract has been terminated. FLYHT Electrified Propulsion Aircraft.” He Best, Joe Gibney, Our breakthroughs in intelligent systems and automation also has named Barry Eccleston exec- recently retired from Boeing. Josh Hochberg and are enabling increased collaboration, situational awareness utive chairman; Eccleston retired from Mitre’s Center for Technology and John King. and mission success in the modern battlespace. Our Airbus as president and CEO in 2017. National Security has a newly estab- Toronto-based touchpoints and partners across the commercial aviation Western Aircraft, a Greenwich Aero lished advisory board. Its members Aero Asset has ecosystem are unlocking insights to improve efficiencies Group maintenance/ include: U.S. Army Gen. (ret.) John named Philip Louis modification com- Campbell; former U.S. Air Force un- Amadeus London and travel experiences. And our leaps forward in electric pany, has hired dersecretary Lisa Disbrow; U.S. Navy sales director of propulsion will reduce aviation’s carbon footprint, decrease Tonya Wood as Adm. (ret.) Bill Gortney; Vice Adm. the helicopter brokerage. He will noise pollution and lower costs. interiors manager. (ret.) Bob Murrett; Bob Work, former cover Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. She will oversee air- deputy secretary of Amadeus is a former Boeing 737 pilot All to make the skies and spaces we touch smarter, craft refurbishment defense. as well as a helicopter pilot. safer and more amazing than ever. according to cus- Melbourne-based Professional Aviation Associates tomer specifications. She held man- Titomic has named of Greenwich AeroGroup has hired collinsaerospace.com/more agement positions with Gulfstream Andreas Schwer Rob Burch as a regional sales manag- Aerospace, J. Banks Design Group board chairman for er for the Northeast and Southwest and Release Marine. the additive man- regions. Burch was director of sales The Center for Strategic and Budget- ufacturer. He was for Avgroup Inc. and a Global Parts. ary Assessments has added three new the inaugural CEO of Saudi Arabian aero sales associate. c staff members:Josh Chang, as a re- AEROSPACE REDEFINED search assistant focusing on strategy To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no and international military doctrines; PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on Regan Copple, as a research assistant companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence for East Asian security, future war- Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone © Collins Aerospace. All rights reserved. fare and Great Power competition; U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST

Manufacturers are advancing 12 drone Air Portugal from 50% to 72.5%, agree- TAKE models toward FAA type certification, ing to buy a stake previously held by For the latest, go to according to the head of the agency’s airline entrepreneur David Neeleman AVIATIONWEEK.COM Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integra- for €55 million ($62 million). tion Office. Scandinavian Airlines has secured a COMMERCIAL AVIATION 14.25 billion Swedish krona ($1.5 bil- Airbus workers in Toulouse staged a lion) recapitalization, led by the Danish brief strike on July 8 over plans to cut and Swedish governments along with 11% of the workforce—or 15,000 po - shareholder the Knut and Alice Wal- sitions, 5,000 of them in France—in lenberg Foundation. response to the coronavirus crisis and global economic downturn. Environmental groups have expressed disappointment at the ICAO’s decision AIRBUS JetBlue Airways and its pilots have to adjust the baseline for the Corsia GENERAL AVIATION struck an agreement that will remove carbon offsetting scheme to reflect the Airbus has secured long-awaited certifi- the possibility of involuntary furloughs COVID-19-related drop in 2020 inter- cation for its H160 medium twin heli- through May 1, 2021. It is the first deal national flights (page 25). copter from the European Union Avi- of its kind at any U.S. airline during the ation Safety Agency, but first delivery COVID-19 crisis. The FAA has extended relief for pilots must wait for approval from the FAA. and other certificated industry pro - Aeromexico has become the latest Latin fessionals who have certain qualifica- The National Business Aviation Association American airline to seek Chapter 11 tions, medical certificates and other has canceled its October 2020 NBAA bankruptcy protection as the region’s training due for renewal through Sep- Business Aviation Convention and carriers struggle to remain solvent tember 2020. Exhibition in Orlando, Florida, after without government support. COVID-19 cases in the U.S. took an A U.S. Transportation Department In- upward turn. Portugal has increased its stake in TAP spector General report on Boeing 737 MAX certification underscores the in- adequacy of communication between 50 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK Boeing and the FAA (page 18). al- A technical marvel but a financial Boeing declines to confirm reports it is batross, Lockheed’s first L-1011 “TriStar” preparing to end the five-decade pro- widebody passenger jet was pictured on our duction run of the 747, but Aviation July 20, 1970, cover nearing completion on Week understands suppliers have been the company’s assembly line in Palmdale, briefed on plans to complete deliveries California. Conceived to transport 250 in 2023. passengers on transcontinental routes, the Certification of Russia’s Irkut MC-21 nar- L-1011 was packed with advanced avionics rowbody is now expected in mid-2021, and systems including direct lift control and according to business daily Vedomosti, an early form of fly-by-wire primary flight citing Minister of Industry and Trade control system. It was also the first large Denis Manturov. commercial airliner capable of completing an automatic flight from takeoff to landing, Comac has delivered the first ARJ21- 700s to China’s three state-owned as well as the first widebody to be certificat- carriers: Air China, China Eastern ed for Category 3B autoland operations. The Airlines and China Southern Airlines. three-engine, three-crew jet set a new standard in passenger comfort, with extra-wide 1972, just as a spike in oil prices triggered DEFENSE aisles and storage bins, glare-resistant a recession and weakened demand for The U.S. Army has confirmed plans windows, a below-deck galley and an engine new aircraft. Lockheed ultimately pro- to award a sole-source contract to configuration that reduced cabin noise. But duced 250 L-1011s and sustained $2.5 Lockheed Martin to develop the longer-range Precision Strike Missile to difficulties developing the L-1011’s RB211 billion in losses on the program before replace the Advanced Tactical Missile engine sent Rolls-Royce tumbling into bank- shutting the line down and exiting the System. ruptcy in early 1971, forcing the British gov- passenger aircraft business in 1983. ernment to nationalize the company and the Serbia displayed three China Aerospace U.S. to put up loan guarantees to enable the Subscribers can read every Science and Technology Corp. CH-92A project to be completed. The first L-1011 was issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 armed unmanned aircraft on July 4, finally delivered to Eastern Airlines in April at: archive.aviationweek.com the first Balkan nation to acquire such a capability.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST

Manufacturers are advancing 12 drone Air Portugal from 50% to 72.5%, agree- Europe’s Traffic Recovery Tracking Predictions for 2020 TAKE models toward FAA type certification, ing to buy a stake previously held by 0% 1% For the latest, go to according to the head of the agency’s airline entrepreneur David Neeleman 0% AVIATIONWEEK.COM Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integra- for €55 million ($62 million). -10 Actual -15% tion Office. -20% -20% Scandinavian Airlines has secured a -20 Draft Scenario -20% COMMERCIAL AVIATION 14.25 billion Swedish krona ($1.5 bil- -30 -30% Airbus workers in Toulouse staged a lion) recapitalization, led by the Danish -40% brief strike on July 8 over plans to cut and Swedish governments along with -40 -41% 11% of the workforce—or 15,000 po - shareholder the Knut and Alice Wal- -50 -50% sitions, 5,000 of them in France—in lenberg Foundation. LEONARDO response to the coronavirus crisis and -60 -62% -65% July 1-7 global economic downturn. Environmental groups have expressed U.S. Navy instructor pilots have begun -70 disappointment at the ICAO’s decision training on the TH-73A at Leonardo’s -78% AIRBUS -80 JetBlue Airways and its pilots have to adjust the baseline for the Corsia facility in Philadelphia. The new train- -85% -79% GENERAL AVIATION struck an agreement that will remove carbon offsetting scheme to reflect the ing helicopter is scheduled to become -90 -88% Airbus has secured long-awaited certifi- the possibility of involuntary furloughs COVID-19-related drop in 2020 inter- operational in 2021. -86% cation for its H160 medium twin heli- through May 1, 2021. It is the first deal national flights (page 25). -100 copter from the European Union Avi- of its kind at any U.S. airline during the Australia is allocating $4-6 billion from Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. ation Safety Agency, but first delivery COVID-19 crisis. The FAA has extended relief for pilots 2021 to beyond 2040 for research and Source: Eurocontrol must wait for approval from the FAA. and other certificated industry pro - development in high-speed strike and Air traffic in Europe is tracking to the draft recovery scenario laid out by Eurocontrol Aeromexico has become the latest Latin fessionals who have certain qualifica- missile defense, building on decades of on April 24, and for the first seven days of July was down 65% from a year earlier, The National Business Aviation Association American airline to seek Chapter 11 tions, medical certificates and other hypersonic research (page 40). has canceled its October 2020 NBAA bankruptcy protection as the region’s training due for renewal through Sep- withSource: a significant Eurocontrol increase in flights by many airlines since July 1, says Eurocontrol. Business Aviation Convention and carriers struggle to remain solvent tember 2020. Moldovan authorities closed down a fac- Exhibition in Orlando, Florida, after without government support. tory clandestinely producing heli- COVID-19 cases in the U.S. took an A U.S. Transportation Department In- copters similar to Kamov’s Ka-26 for when the small launch vehicle experi- central Israel on an Israel Aerospace In- upward turn. Portugal has increased its stake in TAP spector General report on Boeing 737 illegal export to Commonwealth of In- enced an issue 4 min. into a planned dustries Shavit 2 rocket. MAX certification underscores the independent States countries. 6-min., 21-sec. second-stage burn. adequacy of communication between A problem with a liquid oxygen sensor on 50 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK Boeing and the FAA (page 18). The first of eight Airbus A330 MRTTs for The Israeli military on July 6 launched the ULA Atlas V launch vehicle has fur- the Multinational Multirole Tanker the Ofek 16 electro-optical reconnais- ther delayed the launch of NASA’s Mars al- A technical marvel but a financial Boeing declines to confirm reports it is Transport Unit arrived at its home sance satellite into low Earth orbit from 2020 rover to July 30 (page 68). c batross, Lockheed’s first L-1011 “TriStar” preparing to end the five-decade pro- base in Eindhoven, the Netherlands, widebody passenger jet was pictured on our duction run of the 747, but Aviation on June 30. VIEW FROM WASHINGTON July 20, 1970, cover nearing completion on Week understands suppliers have been the company’s assembly line in Palmdale, briefed on plans to complete deliveries House Nixes NASA Budget Hike California. Conceived to transport 250 in 2023. passengers on transcontinental routes, the Certification of Russia’s Irkut MC-21 nar- U.S. legislators’ first draft of a fiscal 2021 budget for NASA, if ap- L-1011 was packed with advanced avionics rowbody is now expected in mid-2021, proved, would cast doubt on a 2024 crewed landing on the Moon. and systems including direct lift control and according to business daily Vedomosti, The Trump administration asked for $3.37 billion in 2021 for an early form of fly-by-wire primary flight citing Minister of Industry and Trade control system. It was also the first large Denis Manturov. development of human lunar landers. In a draft funding bill, the commercial airliner capable of completing House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science and Related an automatic flight from takeoff to landing, Comac has delivered the first ARJ21- Agencies Subcommittee included just $628.2 million—less than 700s to China’s three state-owned as well as the first widebody to be certificat- carriers: Air China, China Eastern UNITED LAUNCH ALLIANCE 19% of the request. ed for Category 3B autoland operations. The Airlines and China Southern Airlines. SPACE “The $628.2 million in funding for the human landing system is three-engine, three-crew jet set a new stan- Blue Origin has delivered the first of two an important first step in this year’s appropriations process,” says dard in passenger comfort, with extra-wide 1972, just as a spike in oil prices triggered DEFENSE methane-burning BE-4 development en- aisles and storage bins, glare-resistant a recession and weakened demand for The U.S. Army has confirmed plans gines to United Launch Alliance (ULA) NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine. He will now look to the Sen- windows, a below-deck galley and an engine new aircraft. Lockheed ultimately pro- to award a sole-source contract to for attachment to the Vulcan rocket for ate to provide the resources to land humans on the Moon in 2024. configuration that reduced cabin noise. But duced 250 L-1011s and sustained $2.5 Lockheed Martin to develop the lon- configuration checks and testing. The draft House bill fully funds NASA’s plans to conduct an un- ger-range Precision Strike Missile to difficulties developing the L-1011’s RB211 billion in losses on the program before replace the Advanced Tactical Missile The UK government is to invest $500 mil- crewed and a crewed flight test of the Space Launch System (SLS) engine sent Rolls-Royce tumbling into bank- shutting the line down and exiting the System. lion in OneWeb after a successful $1 bil- and Orion capsule before the first Moon landing. The proposed ruptcy in early 1971, forcing the British gov- passenger aircraft business in 1983. lion joint bid with Indian cellular provider budget allocates $1.4 billion for Orion and $2.6 billion for the SLS. ernment to nationalize the company and the Serbia displayed three China Aerospace Bharti Global for the bankrupt satellite U.S. to put up loan guarantees to enable the Subscribers can read every Science and Technology Corp. CH-92A communications company (page 70). The draft bill includes $4 billion for space operations, including project to be completed. The first L-1011 was issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 armed unmanned aircraft on July 4, the International Space Station, $7 billion for NASA’s science pro- finally delivered to Eastern Airlines in April at: archive.aviationweek.com the first Balkan nation to acquire such Rocket Lab’s 13th Electron rocket was lost gram and $1.1 billion for space technology programs. a capability. after liftoff from New Zealand on July 4

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 9 COMMENTARY UP FRONT BYRON CALLAN

the federal debt. OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES may have to wait until the U.S. federal debt is White House releases its composed of debt held by the public and intragovern- 2022 fiscal budget request and out-year projections, pre- mental debt, which is owned by different federal trust sumably in February-March 2021. Net interest outlays funds, the largest of which is Social Security. As of could be at least $100 billion less in 2022-23 than the Feb- May, total debt held by the public was $19.8 trillion, ruary 2020 projections on higher debt but lower rates. and intragovernmental debt was another $6 trillion. In the scheme of total federal outlays, which the Often, these two sums are lumped together, but they OMB projected to be $4.8 trillion for 2021, $100 billion should be treated separately. The interest paid on is not a lot, but it indicates there is a bit more head- debt held by the public is dispersed by the Treasury room for defense spending and other nondefense dis- in the form of outlays to the owners of that debt. The cretionary spending than a focus on federal debt alone interest paid on intragovernmental debt is, in essence, might suggest. Federal infrastructure spending could interest the federal government pays itself. be one area of more traction in the 2020s, and the is- The Office of Management and Budget (OMB), in sue of social justice may also spur more demand for its annual projections of outlays, breaks out these two federal resources. components of interest outlays to show net interest One outcome of the pandemic, however, will be to outlay. This is mandatory spending, and so it has been make defense expectations more sensitive to inter- paid along with the other mandatory and discretion- est rate expectations. It is not too difficult to project ary funding the U.S. federal government provides. scenarios with rising debt and interest rates that in- One of the silver linings of the pandemic has been crease to more “normal” levels. The pandemic also the Federal Reserve’s aggressive lowering of interest underscores that the unthinkable should be given a bit rates. This makes federal debt more affordable, much more room on long-term projections. It is quite con- in the way that a lower interest rate on a home mort- ceivable that a major military conflict, a massive nat- gage can make a place to live more affordable. ural disaster or another economic contraction could The OMB projections released in February showed further add to federal debt in the 2020s. c net interest outlays of $378 billion for fiscal 2021 rising to $665 billion by 2030. One could take issue with Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital the deficit projections behind these outlay projects, Alpha Partners.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY UP FRONT BYRON CALLAN

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC HAS as they may have rested on GDP growth expectations stoked consternation that U.S. defense that were too optimistic and nondefense spending spending is going to be significantly cuts that were not going to be realized. However, di- pressured in the 2020s. Congress likely will stick to viding interest outlays on debt held by the public by the $740.5 billion defense discretionary top line agreed debt projections implies an interest rate of 3% or more to in last year’s budget deal for fiscal 2021. But the com- over the forecast period. bination of trillions more in federal debt from higher The pandemic has trashed those rate projections. spending and lower tax receipts this year and next Federal debt held by the public is offered in different and the probability that there will be future federal maturities. Treasury bills, which mature in a year or less spending to better prepare for pandemics raises the as of May, were 23% of the total debt held by the public. probability of defense spending pressure. Treasury notes that mature in 1-10 years were 51%, and “Flat” was already the bonds that mature in 10- new “up,” but “flat” now 30 years were 12%. (There may be a budget that Debt Matters is another 10% of other does not keep pace with But so does the interest on federal debt Treasury instruments.) annual inflation. There Rates now are much might be fears that de- lower, although clearly fense spending will de- that would matter only cline in the 2020s after for new debt that is issued a couple of good years of by the Treasury. The rate largesse from Congress on a 90-day Treasury bill and the White House. is currently 0.13%. On a Despite trillions in ad- five-year note, it is 0.33%, ditional deficits and fed- and on the 10-year note, eral borrowing in 2020- 0.69%. The 30-year note 21, there is one bright rate is 1.4%. spot that indicates less This implies that in- dire defense spending terest outlay projections pressures than now per- should be declining, al- ceived—the interest on though new projections the federal debt. OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES may have to wait until the U.S. federal debt is White House releases its composed of debt held by the public and intragovern- 2022 fiscal budget request and out-year projections, pre- mental debt, which is owned by different federal trust sumably in February-March 2021. Net interest outlays funds, the largest of which is Social Security. As of could be at least $100 billion less in 2022-23 than the Feb- May, total debt held by the public was $19.8 trillion, ruary 2020 projections on higher debt but lower rates. and intragovernmental debt was another $6 trillion. In the scheme of total federal outlays, which the Often, these two sums are lumped together, but they OMB projected to be $4.8 trillion for 2021, $100 billion should be treated separately. The interest paid on is not a lot, but it indicates there is a bit more head- Thinking ahead – debt held by the public is dispersed by the Treasury room for defense spending and other nondefense dis- in the form of outlays to the owners of that debt. The cretionary spending than a focus on federal debt alone interest paid on intragovernmental debt is, in essence, might suggest. Federal infrastructure spending could the future of aviation now. interest the federal government pays itself. be one area of more traction in the 2020s, and the is- The Office of Management and Budget (OMB), in sue of social justice may also spur more demand for The aviation industry has set itself ambitious targets, including a its annual projections of outlays, breaks out these two federal resources. dramatic reduction in emissions by the year 2050. In order to achieve components of interest outlays to show net interest One outcome of the pandemic, however, will be to outlay. This is mandatory spending, and so it has been make defense expectations more sensitive to inter- this, we need aero engine solutions that surpass the technology paid along with the other mandatory and discretion- est rate expectations. It is not too difficult to project of today. 11,000 MTU experts are already working day-to-day with ary funding the U.S. federal government provides. scenarios with rising debt and interest rates that in- passion and enthusiasm, bringing visionary ideas to life. One of the silver linings of the pandemic has been crease to more “normal” levels. The pandemic also The future of aviation starts now. the Federal Reserve’s aggressive lowering of interest underscores that the unthinkable should be given a bit rates. This makes federal debt more affordable, much more room on long-term projections. It is quite con- in the way that a lower interest rate on a home mort- ceivable that a major military conflict, a massive nat- www.mtu.de gage can make a place to live more affordable. ural disaster or another economic contraction could The OMB projections released in February showed further add to federal debt in the 2020s. c net interest outlays of $378 billion for fiscal 2021 rising to $665 billion by 2030. One could take issue with Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital the deficit projections behind these outlay projects, Alpha Partners.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO

THE BAD NEWS OUT OF WICHITA Why such a low delivery rate for so short a time? on June 22 was not too surprising for Boeing cites a 737 backlog of 4,232 aircraft across most in the industry. In a regulatory fil- more than 80 customers, but it is increasingly at risk ing, Spirit AeroSystems revealed that for two reasons. First, there are so-called ASC 606 Boeing has told it to cut total 737 shipset production revenue-recognition accounting changes that have to 72 this year—below the 125-shipset target set just a forced all OEMs to revise how they recognize sales. few weeks earlier and far off the 216 envisioned back in At Boeing, that means scratching off 506 orders to February. The reasons cited were COVID-19’s impact shrink the backlog to just 3,726 as of May. But then on the commercial aerospace sector and the growing there are cancellations: 313 have already been an- inventory of undelivered 737 MAX narrowbodies. nounced, and Jefferies thinks another 600 could be at Commercial aerospace suppliers remain on edge for risk due to stressed-out lessors and Middle Eastern more production-rate re- and Latin American op- ductions from Airbus and erators. Altogether, that Boeing. No industrywide Finding the Floor could mean an effective updates have surfaced Boeing and suppliers look for the 737 backlog of just about since April, but what lit- 3,100 aircraft. tle market insight that lowest sustainable rate Kahyaoglu and Konrad has emerged in recent project Boeing will de- weeks makes it clear liver 45 737 MAXs this that monthly narrowbody year, 360 in 2021 and 480 new-build rates will be in 2022. That compares in the 30s at best by the with new-production to- end of 2021. tals of 45, 198 and 372 for For Airbus, that is a 2020, 2021 and 2022, re- letdown from a produc- spectively. Spirit expects tion rate in the 60s be- that 72 shipsets produced fore the novel coronavi- for Boeing will be “deliv- rus outbreak; for Boeing, ered” this year, then 150 it is a humbling rebuild- in 2021 and 346 in 2022. ing effort from zero ear- In turn, 737 inventory at lier this year due to the Spirit will climb through MAX crisis. The Chica- the end of the year and go-based OEM appears SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS not get burned off until to be looking for the floor for its supply base in subtle the end of 2023, just “slightly ahead” of Boeing’s burn- ways—that is, the lowest sustainable production rate off of MAX inventory by mid-2024. for its chosen suppliers so that the supply chain main- Optimistically, direct subtier suppliers to Spirit tains the ability to ramp up someday. and/or Boeing are looking at build rates topping out But first, everyone has to step down. “It may take an around 100 this year and into next year. But that will even more cautious tack to increasing supplier rates be affected by whatever inventory subtier suppliers until it has better visibility as to how many MAXs already have produced and shipped to those end cus- customers will accept for delivery through year-end tomers, as well as other factors such as the strength of 2021,” say Cowen analysts Cai von Rumohr, Dan Flick the direct relationship with Spirit or Boeing, accord- and Scott McCrery. ing to several consultants. For Boeing and its suppliers, the problem is twofold. There are further considerations, including main- MAX customers have sidelined around 383 of the type taining economic viability of supply. For instance, Tier 2 while they await its recertification. And Boeing has provider Triumph Group recently struck a deal with built up an inventory of about 450 undelivered MAXs. Boeing Commercial Airplanes across multiple pro- That figure could hit 470 in the third quarter, accord- grams that included a build rate of 15-20 shipsets a ing to Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and Greg month for the 737. “One of the nice things about [the] Konrad. At the same time, Spirit has about 120 fuse- MAX—and we’ve been in lockstep with Boeing—is that lages it has yet to send to Boeing for finishing. they’ve allowed us to produce at much higher rates The Jefferies team sees the MAX production rate than they’re building in their factories,” says Triumph reaching five per month by year-end and 31 per month CEO and President Dan Crowley. by the end of 2021, in line with Boeing’s existing esti- Suppliers still may not know what their build rates mates. But the analysts expect a peak MAX delivery will be, but ranges are forming. Who knows when the in- rate for Boeing, including aircraft from inventory, that dustrial base may get a universal forecast from OEMs, is just 40 per month by sometime in 2022—a rate that but individual companies probably can discern ranges will continue for only 6.5 years thereafter. depending on where they sit and whom they serve. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ADVERTORIAL COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS Loitering Munitions – MICHAEL BRUNO Meeting the Challenge of Time-Sensitive Targets In modern battlefi elds, spotting the enemy in time and acting on real-time information has become a critical capability. Th e precise THE BAD NEWS OUT OF WICHITA Why such a low delivery rate for so short a time? location of the enemy in modern combat is not always known, on June 22 was not too surprising for Boeing cites a 737 backlog of 4,232 aircraft across even if the general area of their activities is. most in the industry. In a regulatory fil- more than 80 customers, but it is increasingly at risk Persistent surveillance of a broad area, timely detection, and quick ing, Spirit AeroSystems revealed that for two reasons. First, there are so-called ASC 606 engagement of the enemy, immediately upon a target emerges are Boeing has told it to cut total 737 shipset production revenue-recognition accounting changes that have imperative to dominate the modern battlespace. Such missions are to 72 this year—below the 125-shipset target set just a forced all OEMs to revise how they recognize sales. few weeks earlier and far off the 216 envisioned back in At Boeing, that means scratching off 506 orders to the specialty of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) loitering munitions. February. The reasons cited were COVID-19’s impact shrink the backlog to just 3,726 as of May. But then Th ese weapons are designed to operate in complex arenas and to on the commercial aerospace sector and the growing there are cancellations: 313 have already been an- detect moving targets on foot or in a vehicle immediately. Having inventory of undelivered 737 MAX narrowbodies. nounced, and Jefferies thinks another 600 could be at a loitering munition in the sky with the right sensors is the most Commercial aerospace suppliers remain on edge for risk due to stressed-out lessors and Middle Eastern effi cient way to deal with such adversaries. more production-rate re- and Latin American op- time, Mini Harpy enables the user to cover broader areas, and ductions from Airbus and erators. Altogether, that IAI’s family of loitering munitions is the ideal match for the look for targets more eff ectively, rather than searching for them Boeing. No industrywide could mean an effective time-critical, elusive, and evasive fl eeting enemy targets of the Finding the Floor through a straw. With the anti-radiation sensor cueing the camera updates have surfaced Boeing and suppliers look for the 737 backlog of just about modern battlefi eld. Th ese loitering munitions resemble an alert since April, but what lit- 3,100 aircraft. hunter on the prowl, patiently watches, and waits for its target to on-board. Th e Mini Harpy carries a warhead with eight kilograms tle market insight that lowest sustainable rate Kahyaoglu and Konrad reveal itself, then pounces just at the right time. of explosives. It can strike targets within one-meter accuracy. Its has emerged in recent project Boeing will de- operating range is 100 kilometers, enabling ground units to ex- weeks makes it clear liver 45 737 MAXs this Loitering munitions can stay in the relevant area of combat oper- tend operations deeper into a hostile area or employ off ensive that monthly narrowbody year, 360 in 2021 and 480 ations for an extended time, and use sensitive electro-optic or an- weapons from far back if needed. new-build rates will be in 2022. That compares ti-radiation sensors to cover and acquire an entire area in which in the 30s at best by the with new-production to- enemy activity is known to be happening. IAI’s Rotem quadcopter munition is the second tactical loitering end of 2021. tals of 45, 198 and 372 for solution off ered by IAI, designed for employment by the ground Ground forces can operate loitering munitions from a distance, fur- For Airbus, that is a 2020, 2021 and 2022, re- forces and the individual soldier at the small unit level. With a range letdown from a produc- spectively. Spirit expects ther back behind the frontline, or operate them on the frontline, of 10 kilometers, it is relevant for units up to the battalion level. using portable tablet-based controls. tion rate in the 60s be- that 72 shipsets produced Lightweight, compact, and aff ordable, Rotem enables individual fore the novel coronavi- for Boeing will be “deliv- soldiers to put eyes in the sky over the next hill, beyond the line of rus outbreak; for Boeing, ered” this year, then 150 A Legacy of Loitering Munitions sight, and strike the enemy as soon as targets appear. it is a humbling rebuild- in 2021 and 346 in 2022. In the 1980s, IAI pioneered the loitering munitions fi eld with its ing effort from zero ear- In turn, 737 inventory at development of the Harpy platform, as a method to overcome in- Th e Rotem provides tactical fi eld units with a new advantage lier this year due to the Spirit will climb through telligence gaps on enemy activity. against adversaries. If it does not receive an attack authorization, MAX crisis. The Chica- the end of the year and the Rotem can fl y back and retrieved safely, have its battery re- SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS go-based OEM appears not get burned off until Later, the larger Harop platform was born. In recent years, IAI has placed, and immediately deploy on a new mission. It carries elec- to be looking for the floor for its supply base in subtle the end of 2023, just “slightly ahead” of Boeing’s burn- continued to act as a trailblazer in the area, introducing several tro-optical day and night sensors. ways—that is, the lowest sustainable production rate off of MAX inventory by mid-2024. loitering platforms that serve the tactical level. for its chosen suppliers so that the supply chain main- Optimistically, direct subtier suppliers to Spirit IAI’s loitering munitions don’t just hover in the sky. Like alert Among others Th ese include the electrically-powered Mini Har- tains the ability to ramp up someday. and/or Boeing are looking at build rates topping out hunters, they ensure that ground forces are monitoring the right But first, everyone has to step down. “It may take an around 100 this year and into next year. But that will py, equipped with dual-homing capabilities - utilizing anti-radia- area, waiting to detect and pounce on targets as soon as they ap- even more cautious tack to increasing supplier rates be affected by whatever inventory subtier suppliers tion and electro-optical seekers. pear. By empowering the tactical and operational level, Loitering until it has better visibility as to how many MAXs already have produced and shipped to those end cus- Weighing 40 kilograms, the Mini Harpy is vehicle-lunched, like munitions enable ground forces and special operations elements customers will accept for delivery through year-end tomers, as well as other factors such as the strength of the Harop. With a broadened capability spectrum, Mini Harpy to arrive at the battlefi eld with game-changing advantage, by 2021,” say Cowen analysts Cai von Rumohr, Dan Flick the direct relationship with Spirit or Boeing, accord- can utilize all sensors simultaneously. By employing the radi- overcoming intelligence gaps and dealing eff ectively with the elu- and Scott McCrery. ing to several consultants. ation-sensors, day, and night electro-optics sensors at the same sive ‘disappearing’ enemy.’ For Boeing and its suppliers, the problem is twofold. There are further considerations, including main- MAX customers have sidelined around 383 of the type taining economic viability of supply. For instance, Tier 2 while they await its recertification. And Boeing has provider Triumph Group recently struck a deal with https://www.iai.co.il/defense/land/ built up an inventory of about 450 undelivered MAXs. Boeing Commercial Airplanes across multiple pro- That figure could hit 470 in the third quarter, accord- grams that included a build rate of 15-20 shipsets a ing to Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and Greg month for the 737. “One of the nice things about [the] Konrad. At the same time, Spirit has about 120 fuse- MAX—and we’ve been in lockstep with Boeing—is that lages it has yet to send to Boeing for finishing. they’ve allowed us to produce at much higher rates The Jefferies team sees the MAX production rate than they’re building in their factories,” says Triumph reaching five per month by year-end and 31 per month CEO and President Dan Crowley. by the end of 2021, in line with Boeing’s existing esti- Suppliers still may not know what their build rates mates. But the analysts expect a peak MAX delivery will be, but ranges are forming. Who knows when the in- rate for Boeing, including aircraft from inventory, that dustrial base may get a universal forecast from OEMs, is just 40 per month by sometime in 2022—a rate that but individual companies probably can discern ranges will continue for only 6.5 years thereafter. depending on where they sit and whom they serve. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE GRAHAM WARWICK

ALL X, NO PLANE IS HOW PROGRAM the technology had evolved to the point where a full- manager Alexander Walan characterizes scale fl ight demonstration was feasible. We had a suite DARPA’s recent e orts to build and fl y ex- of mature technology, proven CFD [computational fl uid perimental aircraft. After a spate of proj- dynamics] code, wind-tunnel and subscale demonstra- ects being terminated before reaching fl ight, he hopes tion . . . so we thought there was enough underlying to reverse that trend with his program to fl y a subsonic engineering and science behind it . . . [to] have a fl ying X-plane designed around active fl ow control. vehicle within a fi ve-year window.” Walan manages the new Control of Revolutionary And actually fl ying this X-plane is important to Aircraft with Novel E ectors (CRANE) program, DARPA. Despite its rich history of experimental aircraft which aims to fl y by mid-2024 a large-scale X-plane from the 1970s to the 1990s, Walan says, “it’s been since 2007 [the A160 Hummingbird] that DARPA has fl own anything it could rightly call an X-plane.” Flow in Control Walan’s list excludes several hypersonic demonstra- DARPA wants to see how active ow tors, the X-47B unmanned combat aircraft and X-60 air-launched and -recovered drone but refl ects the ter- control could reshape aircraft mination of DARPA’s Ares, LightningStrike and Tern programs without taking planned X-planes to fl ight. “We felt DARPA had atrophied a bit,” he says. “So that’s what we are trying to do with CRANE: Get back into the pure X-plane experimental realm.” The focus of CRANE is to demonstrate a clean-sheet aircraft that incorporates AFC as the primary design consideration. DARPA is looking for novel confi gurations for a manned or unmanned X-plane weighing between 1,000 lb. and 10,000 lb. and capable of maneuvering and fl ying at high subsonic speed. “We are not looking to do a prototype or something that looks like an operational airplane, but we are looking for high-risk, high-payo ideas,” says Walan. Rather than specify what OEE MARTI DARPA was seeking from the T ET CRANE program, DARPA said: “We want novel plan- with a confi guration enabled by active fl ow control forms and geometries, and then you, industry, can show (AFC). Three contracts for a yearlong conceptual de- us what that airplane can do that is di erent.” In the sign phase are to be awarded in early July. extended, one-year Phase 0 of CRANE, each contractor AFC involves adding energy into the boundary- will design multiple di erent concepts to explore the layer airfl ow to maintain, recover or improve vehicle trade space for AFC-enabled vehicles. performance. Fluidic or plasma actuators can replace Another goal of CRANE is to “inject disruption into conventional mechanical fl ight controls and reduce the design process,” Walan says. By giving contractors observability, enhance e ciency, increase maneuver- a year to go from contract award to conceptual design, ability or achieve other benefi ts. rather than the usual 3-6 months, they can “really work Previous applications of AFC include boundary layer the tools and process almost as much as the confi gu- control using wing blowing to reduce the landing speed rations early on” to come up with more novel aircraft. of carrier-based aircraft such as the North American “We asked folks to start with multiple confi gura- RA-5C Vigilante. But such previous uses have involved tions with di erent benefi ts,” he says. “Three months adding AFC to already-frozen designs to fi x problems. into Phase 0, we’ll probably downselect from three or For example, fl ap blowing was added to the Lockheed four ideas per contractor to one or two. This time next F-104 during development to make it easier to land. year, we’ll start downselecting from multiple contrac- There also have been fl ight tests of AFC to reduce tors and multiple ideas, to one or more that will go wing download on tiltrotors in hover, minimize wake forward to a preliminary design review.” turbulence from targeting pods, stabilize weapon re- In terms of performance metrics for CRANE, “we’re lease from a bay at Mach 2, and increase rudder e ec- looking at improvements in e ciency, maneuverability, tiveness to enable a smaller tail. More recently, there takeo -and-landing performance or weight,” Walan says. have been fl ights in the U.S. and UK of subscale models “The X-plane may be heavier than a relevant airplane. using fl uidic AFC for fl ight control of tailless aircraft. We may have dual control surfaces at fi rst. But what we The goal of CRANE is to “bring AFC out of the lab want to do is push the envelope and quantify the poten- and into large-scale fl ight,” Walan says. “We thought tial benefi t for a transition airplane down the road.” c

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE Enabling the Extraordinary GRAHAM WARWICK To Fly To Power To Live

ALL X, NO PLANE IS HOW PROGRAM the technology had evolved to the point where a full- manager Alexander Walan characterizes scale fl ight demonstration was feasible. We had a suite DARPA’s recent e orts to build and fl y ex- of mature technology, proven CFD [computational fl uid perimental aircraft. After a spate of proj- dynamics] code, wind-tunnel and subscale demonstra- ects being terminated before reaching fl ight, he hopes tion . . . so we thought there was enough underlying to reverse that trend with his program to fl y a subsonic engineering and science behind it . . . [to] have a fl ying X-plane designed around active fl ow control. vehicle within a fi ve-year window.” Walan manages the new Control of Revolutionary And actually fl ying this X-plane is important to Aircraft with Novel E ectors (CRANE) program, DARPA. Despite its rich history of experimental aircraft which aims to fl y by mid-2024 a large-scale X-plane from the 1970s to the 1990s, Walan says, “it’s been since 2007 [the A160 Hummingbird] that DARPA has fl own anything it could rightly call an X-plane.” Flow in Control Walan’s list excludes several hypersonic demonstra- DARPA wants to see how active ow tors, the X-47B unmanned combat aircraft and X-60 air-launched and -recovered drone but refl ects the ter- control could reshape aircraft mination of DARPA’s Ares, LightningStrike and Tern programs without taking planned X-planes to fl ight. “We felt DARPA had atrophied a bit,” he says. “So that’s what we are trying to do with CRANE: Get back into the pure X-plane experimental realm.” The focus of CRANE is to demonstrate a clean-sheet aircraft that incorporates AFC as the primary design consideration. DARPA is looking for novel confi gurations for a manned or unmanned X-plane weighing between 1,000 lb. and 10,000 lb. and capable of ma- EXTREME neuvering and fl ying at high subsonic speed. “We are not looking to do a prototype or something that looks like an operational airplane, but we are looking for high-risk, high-payo ideas,” says Walan. Rather than specify what OEE MARTI Around the globe, military and aerospace systems DARPA was seeking from the Advanced thermal T ET CRANE program, DARPA said: “We want novel plan- designers have turned to Meggitt to help them with a confi guration enabled by active fl ow control forms and geometries, and then you, industry, can show management for extreme meet thermal and power management challenges (AFC). Three contracts for a yearlong conceptual de- us what that airplane can do that is di erent.” In the with compact, lightweight, and efficient vapor cycle sign phase are to be awarded in early July. extended, one-year Phase 0 of CRANE, each contractor systems, liquid cooling systems and components AFC involves adding energy into the boundary- will design multiple di erent concepts to explore the military environments layer airfl ow to maintain, recover or improve vehicle trade space for AFC-enabled vehicles. including fans, pumps and compressors. performance. Fluidic or plasma actuators can replace Another goal of CRANE is to “inject disruption into conventional mechanical fl ight controls and reduce the design process,” Walan says. By giving contractors Meggitt has developed cooling solutions for the most observability, enhance e ciency, increase maneuver- a year to go from contract award to conceptual design, challenging flight conditions, missions, and extreme ability or achieve other benefi ts. rather than the usual 3-6 months, they can “really work Previous applications of AFC include boundary layer the tools and process almost as much as the confi gu- environments. From low supersonic flight, to high control using wing blowing to reduce the landing speed rations early on” to come up with more novel aircraft. hot wet hover, to desert and arctic operations, our of carrier-based aircraft such as the North American “We asked folks to start with multiple confi gura- thermal management solutions are proven and ready RA-5C Vigilante. But such previous uses have involved tions with di erent benefi ts,” he says. “Three months adding AFC to already-frozen designs to fi x problems. into Phase 0, we’ll probably downselect from three or to meet the challenge of the more electronic platform For example, fl ap blowing was added to the Lockheed four ideas per contractor to one or two. This time next and battlefield. F-104 during development to make it easier to land. year, we’ll start downselecting from multiple contrac- There also have been fl ight tests of AFC to reduce tors and multiple ideas, to one or more that will go Tel: +1 949 465 7700 wing download on tiltrotors in hover, minimize wake forward to a preliminary design review.” turbulence from targeting pods, stabilize weapon re- In terms of performance metrics for CRANE, “we’re E-mail: [email protected] lease from a bay at Mach 2, and increase rudder e ec- looking at improvements in e ciency, maneuverability, tiveness to enable a smaller tail. More recently, there takeo -and-landing performance or weight,” Walan says. have been fl ights in the U.S. and UK of subscale models “The X-plane may be heavier than a relevant airplane. www.meggittdefense.com using fl uidic AFC for fl ight control of tailless aircraft. We may have dual control surfaces at fi rst. But what we The goal of CRANE is to “bring AFC out of the lab want to do is push the envelope and quantify the poten- and into large-scale fl ight,” Walan says. “We thought tial benefi t for a transition airplane down the road.” c

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY THE LAUNCHPAD IRENE KLOTZ

THE LAST TIME A NASA ASTRONAUT Virgin Galactic is building a fleet of six-passenger, strapped inside a spaceship for a suborbital two-pilot winged vehicles known as SpaceShipTwo flight was on July 21, 1961, when Virgil that are carried to an altitude of about 50,000 ft. by “Gus” Grissom was dispatched for a second test of the the WhiteKnightTwo mothership and released. A single Mercury- Redstone system. hybrid rocket engine ignites to power the spaceship Challenged to get astronauts to the Moon in nine to an altitude of more than 50 mi. It then reenters the years, suborbital flight was quickly abandoned as atmosphere and glides to a piloted landing on a runway. NASA turned to more powerful rockets and durable The first ship expected to enter commercial service, spaceships that could better withstand atmospheric VSS Unity, has made two test flights into suborbital reentry at higher orbital speed. space. The operation is based in New Mexico, and the Fast-forward 59 years, and suborbital spaceflight company is selling tickets to ride for $250,000. services are in late-stage development by two U.S. Blue Origin, owned by Amazon founder and CEO companies, Virgin Galactic Jeff Bezos, is developing and Blue Origin, with oth- the autonomously flown, ers eyeing a potential mar- SubC six-passenger New Shepard ket for sending tourists, NASA eyes suborbital human system, which takes off and researchers, entertainers lands vertically. Uncrewed and others on short trips spaceflight services flight tests began in 2015. beyond the atmosphere. NASA Blue Origin so far has The passenger list may made 11 flights into suborbit- soon include NASA astro- al space using two different nauts and other agency em- capsules, reaching a maxi- ployees. On June 23, NASA mum altitude of 66 mi. The released a request for infor- company, which flies from mation about upcoming sub- a privately owned complex orbital spaceflight systems. in West Texas, has not yet The data will be used to as- flown any people nor has it sess the systems’ safety, ca- announced pricing. pabilities and pricing, with Having NASA as a cus- the intent of issuing a solic- tomer could go a long way itation for suborbital crew toward assuaging concerns transportation services. about the new vehicles’ “We really want to know safety. what the industry has to “NASA requires review offer,” says Scott Colloredo, and approval of hazardous newly named manager of activities involving NASA NASA’s Commercial Crew personnel in commercial Program Suborbital Crew human spaceflight mis- (SubC) office. “We’re look- sions outside of NASA’s ing for industry to help drive Mercury astronaut Virgil “Gus” Grissom, who operational control,” the this, for them to come in launched on July 21, 1961, became the second— agency noted in its solicita- and tell us what’s available, and last—U.S. astronaut to fly in suborbital space. tion. “For Suborbital Crew how they would like us to go opportunities, NASA will about this acquisition. We’re asking for technical data, analyze risks and take steps to assess the safety and different aspects of their approach, how their vehicle operational readiness of suborbital vehicles for use by operates—things like that. NASA astronauts and other NASA personnel.” “Our intent is to do what we’re calling a ‘system qual- Specifically, the agency is requesting details on how ification,’ where we’ll ensure that our astronauts and providers determine flight readiness for missions, employees are safe to fly on the vehicles,” he adds. accident survivability and mitigation, recommended Suborbital flights will expose passengers to a few passenger safety standards, system reliability and minutes of microgravity and the opportunity to view other information. NASA also wants to know how the the curvature of Earth against the blackness of space. companies identify and control hazards; analyze fail- NASA envisions using the services for training, exper- ure modes, effects and criticality of systems; address iments, and to test and qualify flight hardware. fracture control and failure tolerance; and establish and “We want to see what the industry has to offer that maintain reliability of critical systems. we can take advantage of,” says Colloredo. “We haven’t It will be up to the companies to suggest how NASA had this capability before, but we think it’s close enough should make its safety assessments. Proposals are due now to become a buyer.” on Aug 7. c

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY SHUTTLE SAFETY PRESSURE DIRECTIONAL CHECK SOLENOID RESTRICTORS PLUGS THE LAUNCHPAD VALVES SCREENS RELIEF VALVES FLOW CONTROL VALVES VALVES IRENE KLOTZ

THE LAST TIME A NASA ASTRONAUT Virgin Galactic is building a fleet of six-passenger, WE GO ANYWHERE. strapped inside a spaceship for a suborbital two-pilot winged vehicles known as SpaceShipTwo flight was on July 21, 1961, when Virgil that are carried to an altitude of about 50,000 ft. by “Gus” Grissom was dispatched for a second test of the the WhiteKnightTwo mothership and released. A single Mercury- Redstone system. hybrid rocket engine ignites to power the spaceship Challenged to get astronauts to the Moon in nine to an altitude of more than 50 mi. It then reenters the years, suborbital flight was quickly abandoned as atmosphere and glides to a piloted landing on a runway. NASA turned to more powerful rockets and durable The first ship expected to enter commercial service, spaceships that could better withstand atmospheric VSS Unity, has made two test flights into suborbital reentry at higher orbital speed. space. The operation is based in New Mexico, and the Fast-forward 59 years, and suborbital spaceflight company is selling tickets to ride for $250,000. services are in late-stage development by two U.S. Blue Origin, owned by Amazon founder and CEO companies, Virgin Galactic Jeff Bezos, is developing and Blue Origin, with oth- the autonomously flown, ers eyeing a potential mar- SubC six-passenger New Shepard ket for sending tourists, NASA eyes suborbital human system, which takes off and researchers, entertainers lands vertically. Uncrewed and others on short trips spaceflight services flight tests began in 2015. beyond the atmosphere. NASA Blue Origin so far has The passenger list may made 11 flights into suborbit- soon include NASA astro- al space using two different nauts and other agency em- capsules, reaching a maxi- ployees. On June 23, NASA mum altitude of 66 mi. The released a request for infor- company, which flies from mation about upcoming sub- a privately owned complex orbital spaceflight systems. in West Texas, has not yet The data will be used to as- flown any people nor has it sess the systems’ safety, ca- announced pricing. pabilities and pricing, with Having NASA as a cus- the intent of issuing a solic- tomer could go a long way itation for suborbital crew toward assuaging concerns transportation services. about the new vehicles’ “We really want to know safety. what the industry has to “NASA requires review offer,” says Scott Colloredo, and approval of hazardous newly named manager of activities involving NASA NASA’s Commercial Crew personnel in commercial Program Suborbital Crew human spaceflight mis- LEE MINIATURE PILOTING (SubC) office. “We’re look- sions outside of NASA’s SOLENOID VALVES. ing for industry to help drive Mercury astronaut Virgil “Gus” Grissom, who operational control,” the this, for them to come in launched on July 21, 1961, became the second— agency noted in its solicita- The Lee Company has been helping aerospace engineers solve mission and tell us what’s available, and last—U.S. astronaut to fly in suborbital space. tion. “For Suborbital Crew how they would like us to go opportunities, NASA will critical problems for decades. And now, our ability to help optimize your about this acquisition. We’re asking for technical data, analyze risks and take steps to assess the safety and designs has expanded. That’s because the world’s most reliable solenoid different aspects of their approach, how their vehicle operational readiness of suborbital vehicles for use by valves now offer options with customizable interfaces and electronics. operates—things like that. NASA astronauts and other NASA personnel.” Choose what’s right for your application, wherever it might be, and “Our intent is to do what we’re calling a ‘system qual- Specifically, the agency is requesting details on how we’ll provide a solution that’s compact, lightweight, affordable, ification,’ where we’ll ensure that our astronauts and providers determine flight readiness for missions, 100% tested, and absolutely reliable. employees are safe to fly on the vehicles,” he adds. accident survivability and mitigation, recommended Suborbital flights will expose passengers to a few passenger safety standards, system reliability and Learn more at TheLeeCo.com/aero minutes of microgravity and the opportunity to view other information. NASA also wants to know how the the curvature of Earth against the blackness of space. companies identify and control hazards; analyze fail- NASA envisions using the services for training, exper- ure modes, effects and criticality of systems; address iments, and to test and qualify flight hardware. fracture control and failure tolerance; and establish and “We want to see what the industry has to offer that maintain reliability of critical systems. 2 Pettipaug Rd, Westbrook CT 06498-0424 we can take advantage of,” says Colloredo. “We haven’t It will be up to the companies to suggest how NASA 860-399-6281 | Fax: 860-399-2270 | 1-800-LEE PLUG | www.TheLeeCo.com had this capability before, but we think it’s close enough should make its safety assessments. Proposals are due now to become a buyer.” on Aug 7. c W E S T B R O O K • L O N D O N • P A R I S • F R A N K F U R T • M I L A N • S T O C K H O L M

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Unstable approaches p. 20 Post-COVID airline innovations p. 23 ICAO emissions update p. 25 Asia-Pacific fleet strategies p. 26

after the Lion Air accident that called attention to the procedure. One of the many pilot-related take- aways from the accidents was that SIGNS Boeing defi ned uncommanded stabilizer trim too broadly. When the manual trim wheel in the cockpit spins contin- OF A uously, diagnosing a runaway stabilizer SHIFT is quick and easy. But short bursts of movement such as what the original MCAS logic exhibited and that are > AIRLINES ARE REVIEWING PROPOSED MAX TRAINING part of normal speed trim system operation, are less noticeable. “The trim > CHANGES EMPHASIZE DETAILS OF PROCEDURES on a 737 runs all the time, especially just after takeo ,” one MAX pilot says. > F A AFLIGHT-TESTED SOFTWARE OVER THREE DAYS The draft training material explains such nuances in more detail. Updates to five NNCs—runaway stabilizer, Sean Broderick Washington and Guy Norris Los Angeles stabilizer trim inoperative, airspeed unreliable, altitude disagree and AOA oeing’s comprehensive changes to the 737 MAX fl ight disagree—consist of verbiage chang- control computer (FCC) software are being matched by a es and explanatory notes prompted by signifi cant shift in pilot training, with added emphasis on realiz ation that pilots need more, and clearer, instruction. Bexplaining systems and failure scenarios while clarifying One example is the runaway sta- key non-normal procedure checklists. bilizer NNC. The current 737NG and MAX checklist defines the condition Drafts of training material proposed FCC could trigger spurious alerts. as when “uncommanded stabilizer trim for the MAX and presented to U.S. op- This is what happened in both MAX movement occurs continuously.” The erators suggest that Boeing has moved accidents, Lion Air Flight 610 in Oc- proposed new language adds, “or in a away from concerns about providing tober 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines manner not appropriate for fl ight condi- pilots with too much information. Pilots Flight 302 in March 2019. Erroneous tions,” which would more closely match who have reviewed the material report angle-of-attack (AOA) data from one the intermittent, nose-down commands that the updates expand on existing of two AOA sensors told the FCC that that the original MCAS software was procedures and add detail, including the aircraft’s nose was too high. The programmed to provide when it sensed a review of the MAX’s Maneuvering MCAS, designed to provide auto matic the AOA was too high. (The revamped Characteristics Augmentation System nose-down horizontal stabilizer trim MCAS software does not fi re multiple (MCAS) fl ight-control law implicated in certain high-AOA scenarios, activat- times from a single data input, and AOA in two fatal accidents that have grounded, pushing the aircraft’s nose down. values are now compared so one faulty ed the MAX fl eet for 16 months. The confused pilots did not respond sensor cannot trigger the MCAS.) Details on the MCAS and other as Boeing expected they would, and flight control computer software both aircraft entered fatal dives. The changes were expected as part of the accidents killed all 346 onboard both new training package. But Boeing’s fl ights, left the 385-aircraft MAX fl eet 190 pages of new material also in- grounded and triggered reviews of cludes narratives about many other both Boeing’s and the FAA’s roles in 737- family systems and processes. designing and approving the latest 737 “They went from fear of inundating family variant. pilots to indulging us,” a North Ameri- One of the key findings from the can MAX pilot who reviewed the mate- reviews and accident investigations rial says. “It’s clear by the delivery that was that Boeing assumed pilots under- there’s been a change in philosophy in stood more than they actually did. The how they provide information to pilots, MCAS, designed to operate in the back- and that’s what we’ve been asking for.” ground, was not covered in MAX train- Boeing is proposing changes to ing manuals or emergency procedures. seven non-normal checklists (NNC). Boeing determined that pilots would Two of them, speed trim fail and hori- quickly recognize an MCAS mal- zontal stabilizer out of trim, required function as uncommanded stabilizer updates to align with changes to the movement and react by executing the MCAS and FCC software. The new runaway stabilizer trim checklist. In software takes input from both MAX the accidents, neither crew did, and FCCs, adding redundancy. Previously, the Ethiopian crew had even had the erroneous inputs from a single, active advantage of a special bulletin issued

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Unstable approaches p. 20 Post-COVID airline innovations p. 23 ICAO emissions update p. 25 Asia-Pacific fleet strategies p. 26 after the Lion Air accident that called Boeing also added details on Aviation Week. “And it should be stud- 10,000 and 15,000 ft. Airspeed for the attention to the procedure. manual- trim wheel operation, part of ied based on the complete variation of initial set of aggressive maneuvers was One of the many pilot-related take- the NNC if pilots determine that the skills that are available in the aviation at or above 300 kt., while the latter se- aways from the accidents was that stabilizer motor needs to be cut o to market. We can never short that again. ries was conducted at 300 kt. or below. SIGNS Boeing defi ned uncommanded stabiliz- stop uncommanded movements. Tests Every time we drop a spec for a fl ight The second day of tests took place er trim too broadly. When the manual done after the accidents showed pilots control system in an airplane, we’ve on June 30 over eastern Washington trim wheel in the cockpit spins contin- did not understand that aerodynamic got to understand that man-machine at higher altitudes up to 37,000 ft. and OF A uously, diagnosing a runaway stabilizer forces on the stabilizer can make the interface. And we have to understand speeds exceeding 500 kt. Tests then SHIFT is quick and easy. But short bursts of trim wheel di cult to turn. The new it well, with science, and it has to be transitioned to low and mid-level alti- movement such as what the original checklist and training material un- contemporary.” tudes following a rapid descent from MCAS logic exhibited and that are derscores this and says unloading the With the software fi nalized and pro- 35,000 ft. to 10,000 ft. Work is believed > AIRLINES ARE REVIEWING PROPOSED MAX TRAINING part of normal speed trim system op- stabilizer by reducing air speed may posed training in place, Boeing and the to have focused on missed approach- eration, are less noticeable. “The trim be necessary. FAA have begun putting the changes es and MCAS activations at around > CHANGES EMPHASIZE DETAILS OF PROCEDURES on a 737 runs all the time, especially The material stops short of re intro- through their fi nal paces before reg- 15,000 ft. at and around Moses Lake. just after takeo ,” one MAX pilot says. ducing a technique dubbed the roller- ulatory approval. Recent certifi cation The aircraft landed after a fl ight last- > F A AFLIGHT-TESTED SOFTWARE OVER THREE DAYS The draft training material explains coaster that Boeing used to include in fl ight tests trialed the MCAS and all ing 3 hr. 56 min. It then returned di- such nuances in more detail. Updates its manuals, where pilots repeatedly of the new NNCs, as well as possible rectly to Boeing Field. to five NNCs—runaway stabilizer, let the nose drop to reduce force on FCC anomalies. The fi nal certifi cation fl ight tests oc- Sean Broderick Washington and Guy Norris Los Angeles stabilizer trim inoperative, airspeed the stabilizer, crank the trim wheel, On June 29, the 737-7 development curred on July 1 and featured some of unreliable, altitude disagree and AOA and then pull up to stop the descent aircraft 1E001 departed Boeing Field, the trial’s most dramatic maneuvers, oeing’s comprehensive changes to the 737 MAX fl ight disagree—consist of verbiage chang- until the stabilizer is at the desired po- Seattle, for the fi rst of three days of including high-angle banking turns control computer (FCC) software are being matched by a es and explanatory notes prompted by sition. One source says Boeing is re- FAA certification flights. Beginning and steep climbs and dives. Return- signifi cant shift in pilot training, with added emphasis on realiz ation that pilots need more, and luctant to reintroduce the technique, with a direct climb to 19,000 ft. and ing once again to airspace over south clearer, instruction. pointing instead to trials that showed a starting airspeed of around 400 kt ., central Washington, the bulk of the Bexplaining systems and failure scenarios while clarifying One example is the runaway sta- two pilots could exert enough force to the crew then descended to 15,000 ft. testing was conducted during rapid key non-normal procedure checklists. bilizer NNC. The current 737NG and move the trim wheel without dropping for a series of maneuvers to test the descents and climbs between 17,000 ft. MAX checklist defines the condition the aircraft’s nose. MCAS at medium altitudes. and 2,000 ft. during a 2-hr. fl ight. Drafts of training material proposed FCC could trigger spurious alerts. as when “uncommanded stabilizer trim In many cases, information added to Over the first hour, these maneu- While the FAA does not have a for the MAX and presented to U.S. op- This is what happened in both MAX movement occurs continuously.” The the checklists came from fl ight crew vers included a set of high AOA test schedule, the current timeline could erators suggest that Boeing has moved accidents, Lion Air Flight 610 in Oc- proposed new language adds, “or in a training manuals Boeing develops for points suggesting stalls or approaches see all MAX changes and training away from concerns about providing tober 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines manner not appropriate for fl ight condi- instructors but that many line pilots to stalls. The aircraft then descended approved in September. Still to be pilots with too much information. Pilots Flight 302 in March 2019. Erroneous tions,” which would more closely match never see. The changes refl ect Boeing’s below 5,000 ft. for the second phase determined is whether the agency who have reviewed the material report angle-of-attack (AOA) data from one the intermittent, nose-down commands acknowledgment that manufacturers, of low-altitude MCAS tests. These in- will require a public comment pe- that the updates expand on existing of two AOA sensors told the FCC that that the original MCAS software was and not regulators or airlines, play the cluded three missed approaches with riod for the airworthiness directive procedures and add detail, including the aircraft’s nose was too high. The programmed to provide when it sensed most critical role in ensuring pilots descents down to around 1,000 ft. The mandating the software upgrades a review of the MAX’s Maneuvering MCAS, designed to provide auto matic the AOA was too high. (The revamped have the necessary tools to operate 737-7 touched down at Moses Lake and other return-to-service prereq- Characteristics Augmentation System nose-down horizontal stabilizer trim MCAS software does not fi re multiple the products they sell. after just over 2 hr. uisites. If the FAA opts for the tradi- (MCAS) fl ight-control law implicated in certain high-AOA scenarios, activat- times from a single data input, and AOA “That pilot-control interface is Further tests were conducted on the tional public-comment period, final A in two fatal accidents that have grounded, pushing the aircraft’s nose down. values are now compared so one faulty real, and it should be studied every return fl ight to Boeing Field, including return-to-service approval could be ed the MAX fl eet for 16 months. The confused pilots did not respond sensor cannot trigger the MCAS.) day,” Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun tells 11 rapid climbs and descents between pushed out another month or more. c Details on the MCAS and other as Boeing expected they would, and flight control computer software both aircraft entered fatal dives. The changes were expected as part of the accidents killed all 346 onboard both new training package. But Boeing’s fl ights, left the 385-aircraft MAX fl eet 190 pages of new material also in- grounded and triggered reviews of cludes narratives about many other both Boeing’s and the FAA’s roles in Boeing is revamping key training elements as 737- family systems and processes. designing and approving the latest 737 part of getting the 737 MAX eet airborne again. “They went from fear of inundating family variant. pilots to indulging us,” a North Ameri- One of the key findings from the can MAX pilot who reviewed the mate- reviews and accident investigations rial says. “It’s clear by the delivery that was that Boeing assumed pilots under- there’s been a change in philosophy in stood more than they actually did. The how they provide information to pilots, MCAS, designed to operate in the back- and that’s what we’ve been asking for.” ground, was not covered in MAX train- Boeing is proposing changes to ing manuals or emergency procedures. seven non-normal checklists (NNC). Boeing determined that pilots would Two of them, speed trim fail and hori- quickly recognize an MCAS mal- zontal stabilizer out of trim, required function as uncommanded stabilizer updates to align with changes to the movement and react by executing the MCAS and FCC software. The new runaway stabilizer trim checklist. In software takes input from both MAX the accidents, neither crew did, and FCCs, adding redundancy. Previously, the Ethiopian crew had even had the erroneous inputs from a single, active advantage of a special bulletin issued

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Familiar Risks Evident in Pakistan A320 Accident Sequence

Unstable approaches continue to be a significant factor in approach-and-landing accidents. > PK8303 PILOTS KNEW THEY WERE TOO HIGH AND FAST ON FINAL APPROACH

> WARNINGS FROM CONTROLLERS AND FLIGHT DECK DID NOT INFLUENCE CREW ACTIONS DEPOSIT PHOTOS

Sean Broderick Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt

hile the preliminary report that the aircraft’s energy state trig- ignored them. Details in the report on the fatal May 22 acci- gered several flight deck messages, suggest there were no problems with Wdent involving a Pakistan including overspeed, an enhanced the landing gear, and Pakistani Avia- International Airlines (PIA) Airbus ground proximity warning system tion Minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan A320 leaves many questions unan- (EGPWS) alert signifying imminent told reporters on May 28 that the swered, its contents make clear that impact with terrain or an obstacle, crew did not report any problems two familiar risk areas—unstable and a landing-gear-up alert. The pi- during the initial approach. approaches and flight deck human lots “disregarded” all of them and Investigators will more closely factors—featured prominently in the touched down with the gear retract- examine many factors during their accident sequence. ed, scraping the engine nacelles along probe, the report says. Among their The June 24 Pakistan Aircraft Ac- the runway, the report says. actions will be “critical analysis of cident Investigation Board (AAIB) The crewmembers then decided monitoring of performance of the pi- report confirmed that the pilots of to go around but could not maintain lots by PIA for stabilized approaches,” PIA Flight 8303 (PK8303) chose to altitude as they vectored back around including the airline’s use of flight-da- continue their approach to Karachi to the runway for a second approach, ta-monitoring (FDM) tools and crew Jinnah International Airport despite and the aircraft went down in a resi- resource management (CRM). coming in too high and too fast during dential neighborhood 1.3 km (0.8 mi) The airline is no stranger to FDM the initial final-approach phase. Criti- from the runway threshold. and CRM; not only are both pro - cally, they were also acutely aware of The crew reported engine prob - grams part of its curriculum, but PIA their situation. lems during the go-around, and also offers FDM and CRM courses to Air traffic control (ATC) “advised investigators believe the A320’s other operators. repeatedly . . . about excessive height,” CFM56-5Bs were “most likely” not Taking a broader view, the accident the report says. “The landing ap - producing thrust at impact. Debris underscores ongoing shortcomings in proach was not discontinued.” found on the runway included nacelle compliance with standard operating Instead, the pilots adjusted the air- and engine parts. procedures that cover go-arounds. Re- craft’s configuration so that it would All but two of the 99 people on- search shows that approach-and-land- descend more quickly and align with board died, as well as one person on ing (ALA) is the most common phase the recommended approach path, or the ground. for accidents, accounting for 65% of glideslope. They retracted the landing The AAIB report includes no de- the total. While accident sequences gear and speed brakes and changed tails on the flight crew’s experience almost always include many individ- the flight mode to “open descent,” dis- or training history, nor does it discuss ual factors, “empirical data” show connecting the autopilot. the CVR’s contents, which may shed that nonadherence to go-around pol- PK8303 acquired the glideslope, light on what the pilots were thinking icies “is the most common contrib - but preliminary analysis of the flight as they flew the initial approach and utor” to ALA events, a 2017 Flight data recorder (FDR) and cockpit whether they did not notice the flight Safety Foundation (FSF) study says. voice recorder (CVR) confirmed deck alerts and warnings or simply Research by the International Air

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Familiar Risks Evident Transport Association (IATA) of 375 tool kit on reducing ALA-phase ac- shows that “continued landing after air transport accidents in 2012-16 cidents, with modules that focus on unstable approach” was a factor in in Pakistan A320 Accident found that 61% occurred during the stabilized approaches. seven of them, or 13%. ALA phase, and failure to go around Following the 2011 fatal accident of PK8303 will be on a similar list for Sequence played a role in 10% of the total. a First Air Boeing 737-200—another 2020. The aircraft was on a sched- Research by the FSF and others high-and-fast approach—Canada’s uled domestic fl ight to Karachi from shows that only 3-4% of unstable ap- Transportation Safety Board (TSB) Lahore, leaving at 1:05 p.m. local proaches result in go-arounds. recommended that Transport Cana- time with eight crewmembers and “Interestingly, and sadly, the col- da (TC) require operators to “moni- 91 passengers onboard. While near- lective industry performance of tor and reduce” unstable approaches. ing Karachi, the aircraft was cleared complying with go-around policies is TSB included the issue on its 2014 for a direct vector to the Makli way- Unstable approaches continue extremely poor,” the FSF says. “It is watch list of top safety risks. TC did point, 15 nm from the fi eld. Karachi to be a significant factor in evident that the state of noncompli- issue mandates, but voluntary e orts approach controllers cleared the air- approach-and-landing accidents. ance has been steady for many years such as data monitoring and closer craft to descend to 3,000 ft. overhead PK8303 PILOTS KNEW THEY WERE > and will remain steady unless chang- scrutiny by the regulator resulted of Makli (see chart), but at Makli it TOO HIGH AND FAST ON FINAL APPROACH es are made.” in fewer unstable approaches, lead- was still at 9,780 ft. and an indicated Industry is not ignoring the issue. ing TSB to remove the item from its airspeed of 245 kt. > WARNINGS FROM CONTROLLERS AND FLIGHT DECK IATA publishes regularly updated watch list in 2018. The report does not specify which DID NOT INFLUENCE CREW ACTIONS guidance on minimizing the risk of While the overall accident rate is pilot was fl ying the aircraft. unstable approaches, including poli- falling, go-around adherence contin- Realizing their excessive altitude, DEPOSIT PHOTOS cies and best practices that operators ues to be an issue. An IATA analysis the crewmembers selected the can implement. The FSF produced a of 53 air transport accidents in 2019 “OPEN DES” mode on the fl ight con-

Sean Broderick Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt Pakistan International Airlines Flight 8303 hile the preliminary report that the aircraft’s energy state trig- ignored them. Details in the report Final Approach Sequence on the fatal May 22 acci- gered several flight deck messages, suggest there were no problems with Wdent involving a Pakistan including overspeed, an enhanced the landing gear, and Pakistani Avia- International Airlines (PIA) Airbus ground proximity warning system tion Minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan CORRECTED ALTITUDE (ft.) 10,000 A320 leaves many questions unan- (EGPWS) alert signifying imminent told reporters on May 28 that the swered, its contents make clear that impact with terrain or an obstacle, crew did not report any problems two familiar risk areas—unstable and a landing-gear-up alert. The pi- during the initial approach. approaches and flight deck human lots “disregarded” all of them and Investigators will more closely factors—featured prominently in the touched down with the gear retract- examine many factors during their MAKLI selected Gear down accident sequence. ed, scraping the engine nacelles along probe, the report says. Among their 7,500 The June 24 Pakistan Aircraft Ac- the runway, the report says. actions will be “critical analysis of cident Investigation Board (AAIB) The crewmembers then decided monitoring of performance of the pi- report confirmed that the pilots of to go around but could not maintain lots by PIA for stabilized approaches,” PIA Flight 8303 (PK8303) chose to altitude as they vectored back around including the airline’s use of flight-da- continue their approach to Karachi to the runway for a second approach, ta-monitoring (FDM) tools and crew 5,000 Gear up selected Jinnah International Airport despite and the aircraft went down in a resi- resource management (CRM).

coming in too high and too fast during dential neighborhood 1.3 km (0.8 mi) The airline is no stranger to FDM turn left heading 180” “PIA8303 disregard ATC: from the runway threshold. and CRM; not only are both pro - “Negative turn left heading 180” ATC:

the initial final-approach phase. Criti- “Sir Orbit is available” ATC: cally, they were also acutely aware of The crew reported engine prob - grams part of its curriculum, but PIA their situation. lems during the go-around, and also offers FDM and CRM courses to 2,500 Glide 3 deg. Air traffic control (ATC) “advised investigators believe the A320’s other operators. repeatedly . . . about excessive height,” CFM56-5Bs were “most likely” not Taking a broader view, the accident the report says. “The landing ap - producing thrust at impact. Debris underscores ongoing shortcomings in proach was not discontinued.” found on the runway included nacelle compliance with standard operating Instead, the pilots adjusted the air- and engine parts. procedures that cover go-arounds. Re- 0 craft’s configuration so that it would All but two of the 99 people on- search shows that approach-and-land- Jinnah International Airport Runway 25L descend more quickly and align with board died, as well as one person on ing (ALA) is the most common phase the recommended approach path, or the ground. for accidents, accounting for 65% of 250 225 glideslope. They retracted the landing The AAIB report includes no de- the total. While accident sequences 200 175 COMPUTED AIRSPEED (kt) gear and speed brakes and changed tails on the flight crew’s experience almost always include many individ- 150 4 the flight mode to “open descent,” dis- or training history, nor does it discuss ual factors, “empirical data” show 3 2 1 SLAT/FLAP LEVER POSITION connecting the autopilot. the CVR’s contents, which may shed that nonadherence to go-around pol- 0 PK8303 acquired the glideslope, light on what the pilots were thinking icies “is the most common contrib - 15 10 5 0 -5 but preliminary analysis of the flight as they flew the initial approach and utor” to ALA events, a 2017 Flight Distance to Runway 25L (nm) data recorder (FDR) and cockpit whether they did not notice the flight Safety Foundation (FSF) study says. Note: Data sourced from ﬂight data recorder and analyzed by BEA. Source: tn rcrt ccent netton or n E voice recorder (CVR) confirmed deck alerts and warnings or simply Research by the International Air

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trol unit. Both autopilots were disen- hand over the aircraft to “Aerodrome provide emergency power, but the air- gaged, and the speed brakes extend- Control” but instead sought landing craft could not maintain altitude. ed. ATC then requested the crew to clearance for it by telephone. Aero- The A320 was registered as AP- “confirm track mile comfortable for drome Control granted the clearance BLD and built in 2004. It was powered descent” and recommended taking without noticing that the gear was up. by CFM56-5B4/P engines. It had accu- an orbit to lose altitude and for the According to the AAIB report, the mulated 47,124 flight hours and 25,866 aircraft to intercept the glideslope A320 was descending through 500 ft. cycles. China Eastern Airlines operat- safely. The crew chose not to execute at Slats/Flaps 3, a speed of 220 kt. and ed the aircraft from 2004 until 2014, an orbit and instead continued the fast a descent rate of 2,000 ft./min. with when it was delivered to PIA. descent. At 10.5 nm from the runway the gear still retracted. During the accident probe, AAIB threshold and an altitude of 7,221 ft., The aircraft touched the runway learned that 262 of Pakistan’s 860 the landing gear was lowered. The recon its engines, and the crew applied commercial pilots may be unfit to fly ommended approach path would have reverse thrust and “initiated a braking because their licenses are not valid. seen the aircraft at about 3,000 ft. at action,” the report says. Both engines The pilots apparently paid other peo- this point, the report shows. were damaged, and Aerodrome Con- ple to take their final written exams, ATC twice advised the crew to dis- trol conveyed its observations about AAIB told Pakistani government offi- continue the approach and alerted it the gear-up landing to Karachi Ap - cials. PIA has grounded 141 of its 450 about the unstable approach one other proach, but neither alerted the crew. pilots as a result. time. At an altitude of 1,740 ft., 6 nm The crew initiated a go-around, al- “Dubious pilots’ licenses do not from the runway, and having now in- though the FDR indicates a brief action pertain to PIA alone. Let it be on re- tercepted the glideslope and localizer, to move the gear lever to the down po- cord, these licenses were issued by the the pilots raised the landing gear again sition that was immediately reversed. competent authority and are valid as and retracted the speed brakes. The The crew told ATC it intended to go per their records,” the airline says. crew selected the Flaps 1 position at a around for another approach to the “It’s the process and discrepancies speed of 243 kt., triggering overspeed same Runway 25L, but shortly after through which they were obtained.” and EGPWS warnings. becoming airborne again, the crew The AAIB’s pilot-licensing findings In a deviation from normal proce- reported that its engines had failed. are not discussed in the preliminary dures, Karachi Approach ATC did not The ram-air turbine was deployed to report. c

● ● ●

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION trol unit. Both autopilots were disen- hand over the aircraft to “Aerodrome provide emergency power, but the air- Airlines Plan To Focus on Innovation in technology development in airlines gaged, and the speed brakes extend- Control” but instead sought landing craft could not maintain altitude. globally,” Abraham says. “And the pri- ed. ATC then requested the crew to clearance for it by telephone. Aero- The A320 was registered as AP- After the COVID-19 Crisis ority right now is cash preservation, “confirm track mile comfortable for drome Control granted the clearance BLD and built in 2004. It was powered cost reduction, optimal usage of as- descent” and recommended taking without noticing that the gear was up. by CFM56-5B4/P engines. It had accu- > AIRLINE IT MARKET TO GROW MORE SLOWLY THAN PREDICTED sets and regaining passenger confi- an orbit to lose altitude and for the According to the AAIB report, the mulated 47,124 flight hours and 25,866 dence to fly.” aircraft to intercept the glideslope A320 was descending through 500 ft. cycles. China Eastern Airlines operat- > DATA USE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ARE AMONG But technological advances can safely. The crew chose not to execute at Slats/Flaps 3, a speed of 220 kt. and ed the aircraft from 2004 until 2014, AREAS OF TECHNOLOGY FOCUS FOR AIRLINES help airlines meet their main short- an orbit and instead continued the fast a descent rate of 2,000 ft./min. with when it was delivered to PIA. term challenge—the dramatic drop in descent. At 10.5 nm from the runway the gear still retracted. During the accident probe, AAIB Helen Massy-Beresford Paris demand for travel—as well as improve threshold and an altitude of 7,221 ft., The aircraft touched the runway learned that 262 of Pakistan’s 860 their longer-term prospects. the landing gear was lowered. The recon its engines, and the crew applied commercial pilots may be unfit to fly s airlines in many countries be- “By predicting and optimizing these “Airlines will need to stimulate de- ommended approach path would have reverse thrust and “initiated a braking because their licenses are not valid. gin to recover from the peak processes, airlines will be able to re- mand and target market segments seen the aircraft at about 3,000 ft. at action,” the report says. Both engines The pilots apparently paid other peo- Aof the COVID-19 pandemic, the duce costs, increase utilization rates that will enable them to start regain- this point, the report shows. were damaged, and Aerodrome Con- ple to take their final written exams, short-term focus is on getting flights of aircraft and improve passenger ex- ing at least a minor percentage of their ATC twice advised the crew to dis- trol conveyed its observations about AAIB told Pakistani government offi- back up and running while also con- perience,” Abraham says. “Predictive regular incomes,” Abraham says. continue the approach and alerted it the gear-up landing to Karachi Ap - cials. PIA has grounded 141 of its 450 vincing passengers that flying is safe. big data analytics and AI/ machine- For this to occur, it will be import- about the unstable approach one other proach, but neither alerted the crew. pilots as a result. But looking further ahead, carriers learning-enabled solutions capable of ant for carriers to focus on improving time. At an altitude of 1,740 ft., 6 nm The crew initiated a go-around, al- “Dubious pilots’ licenses do not are increasingly convinced of the need collecting large quantities of data and contactless technologies to convince from the runway, and having now in- though the FDR indicates a brief action pertain to PIA alone. Let it be on re- to stay on top of innovative technol- analyzing them in real time will help passengers they are safe throughout tercepted the glideslope and localizer, to move the gear lever to the down po- cord, these licenses were issued by the ogies such as blockchain, which can airlines predict key parameters with their journey. the pilots raised the landing gear again sition that was immediately reversed. competent authority and are valid as be used to improve loyalty programs, a high level of accuracy.” “Another key area of investment and retracted the speed brakes. The The crew told ATC it intended to go per their records,” the airline says. should be revenue management and crew selected the Flaps 1 position at a around for another approach to the “It’s the process and discrepancies operations,” Abraham says. “In times speed of 243 kt., triggering overspeed same Runway 25L, but shortly after through which they were obtained.” of depressed demand, pricing systems and EGPWS warnings. becoming airborne again, the crew The AAIB’s pilot-licensing findings coupled with forecasting and analyt- In a deviation from normal proce- reported that its engines had failed. are not discussed in the preliminary ical techniques will need to be fine- dures, Karachi Approach ATC did not The ram-air turbine was deployed to report. c tuned to identify the right price point to potential passengers.” If airlines are putting off digital and SAVO PRELEVIC/AFP/GETTY IMAGES SAVO IT projects in favor of preserving cash for now, they know that staying on top of emerging technologies and innovative use of data will help their recovery and long-term health. It is not just about helping airlines manage disruptive situations, however. “‘Hyperpersonalization’ is the Post-pandemic technology new buzzword, and efforts have been investments will help airlines recover. taken to create a detailed profile of each individual customer rather than a pattern-based grouping of similar and artificial intelligence (AI), which SITA’s 2019 Air Transport IT In- profiles,” Abraham says. “Technolo- can drive customer revenues through sights survey—released last November gies such as machine learning enable tools such as chatbots. before the pandemic hit—revealed AI efficient segmentation of passengers Advances in big data analytics and as the most common technology air- into multiple categories based on a internet of things technology open up lines were investing in: 44% of airlines wide variety of parameters, and air- ● opportunities for greater personaliza- had a major program underway, up lines are researching to provide these tion, optimized pricing and increased from 32% in the previous survey, and a customers insights in real time.” ● ancillary revenues, says Abhilash further 45% were running a pilot. The For now, in common with many ● Varkey Abraham, aerospace and survey also found that 72% of airlines other industry experts, Abraham defense research analyst at Frost & were investing in blockchain. sees brighter recovery prospects for Sullivan and author of an analysis of For now, the coronavirus outbreak low-cost carriers (LCC) compared the global airline information technol- is throwing technology and other in- with their legacy counterparts, ogy (IT) market through 2025. vestment plans off course. The Frost thanks to their low cost bases and On the operational side, new tech- & Sullivan report predicts that the emphasis on domestic routes. nologies can help airlines cut turn- airline IT market will generate rev- He also believes LCCs, often with around times by smoothing out board- enue of $20.74 billion by 2025, com- dedicated innovation departments ing, slot management and ground pared with $21.20 billion in 2019 and a such as Ryanair’s Labs division, show operations; predicting cancellations prepandemic forecast that the market greater potential for modernization and disruption; reducing rates of would reach $25.1 billion by 2025. and will remain more agile in their missing luggage; and minimizing un- “The disappearance of revenues technology investments as the recov- scheduled maintenance. has halted investment and progress ery takes hold.

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Abraham cites Mexico’s Volaris as an example of an LCC that has managed to invest in digital solutions amid the pandemic. The carrier posted an increase of 16.2% in ancillary revenues in the first quarter of the year, with total operating revenues up 8.8%, before the full impact of the pandemic had started to occur in Mexico. “During the current environment, we have also been accelerating digital transformation initiatives,” Holger Blankenstein, Volaris’ executive vice president of airline commercial and operations, said during the ultra- low- cost carrier’s first quarter webcast in April. He noted that Volaris had upgraded Airlines are focusing on improving contactless technologies to reassure to the latest version of the Navitaire travelers and thereby stimulate demand. New Skies reservations platform and developed an automated platform for That is an important consideration had secured a patent for its Opti- flight cancellations initiated by the air- as airline sustainability comes un- Direct tool, which is already in use by line. It offers passengers the options der ever greater scrutiny, with many Air France and Transavia. This inter- of a voucher, flight change or refund, countries attaching environmental face draws on data learning to show without any human interaction. conditions to state aid awarded to help previously used shortcuts and data Data innovations can also help air- airlines weather the pandemic crisis. on time and fuel savings, thereby al- lines take incremental steps toward Paris-based software company lowing pilots to request more efficient improving environmental credentials. Safety Line said on June 29 that it routes from air traffic control.c

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Abraham cites Mexico’s Volaris as Airlines Stricken by COVID-19 Cheer lized at a level close to the precrisis an example of an LCC that has man- forecast of around 600 million tons of aged to invest in digital solutions amid Change to Carbon-Offsetting System CO2,” IATA says. the pandemic. The carrier posted an Aviation’s impact on the environ- increase of 16.2% in ancillary revenues > ICAO COUNCIL AGREES TO ADJUST CORSIA BASELINE TO REFLECT ment, already under increased scru- in the first quarter of the year, with COVID-19 EFFECTS tiny in recent years, has come into total operating revenues up 8.8%, be- even sharper focus as the travel re - fore the full impact of the pandemic > AIRLINES HAD CONTENDED THAT THE DRAMATIC DROP IN 2020 strictions put in place to manage the had started to occur in Mexico. EMISSIONS SKEWED THE SCHEME pandemic led to largely empty skies. “During the current environment, Some governments have taken the we have also been accelerating digi- Helen Massy-Beresford Paris opportunity to link financial help for tal transformation initiatives,” Holger stricken airlines to renewed environ- Blankenstein, Volaris’ executive vice Reactions to the In- navirus. Airlines, unsurprisingly, have mental efforts. president of airline commercial and ternational Civil Avi- welcomed ICAO’s move. The French and Dutch governments operations, said during the ultra- low- ation Organization “[The] decision is important be - have both agreed to multibillion-euro cost carrier’s first quarter webcast (ICAO) Council’s cause, at a time of extreme volatility, bailouts for Air France-KLM’s airlines in April. decision to adjust it provides immediate certainty and a but have attached emissions reduc- He noted that Volaris had upgraded Airlines are focusing on improving contactless technologies to reassure the baseline for the clear path forward for the successful tion, sustainability and competitive- ONE IN A SERIES to the latest version of the Navitaire travelers and thereby stimulate demand. Carbon Offsetting implementation of Corsia,” said IATA. ness conditions to the aid. New Skies reservations platform and and Reduction Scheme for Interna- “This will help ensure the sustain- France’s economy ministry said developed an automated platform for That is an important consideration had secured a patent for its Opti- tional Aviation (Corsia) to reflect the able development of international Air France must cut the volume of its flight cancellations initiated by the air- as airline sustainability comes un- Direct tool, which is already in use by COVID-19-related drop in 2020 de- line. It offers passengers the options der ever greater scrutiny, with many Air France and Transavia. This inter- mand perfectly encapsulate the air of a voucher, flight change or refund, countries attaching environmental face draws on data learning to show transport emissions dilemma: on the without any human interaction. conditions to state aid awarded to help previously used shortcuts and data one hand, airline survival, and with it Airlines say the decision on Corsia gives Data innovations can also help air- airlines weather the pandemic crisis. on time and fuel savings, thereby al- jobs, economic growth and connectiv- them much-needed certainty. lines take incremental steps toward Paris-based software company lowing pilots to request more efficient ity; on the other, the pressing need to improving environmental credentials. Safety Line said on June 29 that it routes from air traffic control.c cut CO2 emissions. The ICAO Council listened to the air transport industry’s pleas for the scheme to be changed to reflect the post-COVID-19 reality when it decided June 30 to set 2019 emissions as the offset target for the program’s initial three-year phase. Under the initial Corsia resolution, the voluntary pilot phase, set to run from 2021 through 2023, was to have been based on average CO2 emissions from 2019 and Fleet Discovery Military 2020 combined. The program requires the offset of any emissions above the baseline so that participating airlines are car- Discover Opportunity with Unparalleled bon-neutral beyond the baseline year. JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET But the coronavirus pandemic aviation and avoid an inappropriate CO2 emissions from domestic flights by Tracking of Global Military Fleets brought the global air transport indus- economic burden on our sector, which 50% by the end of 2024 as it unveiled a try to a virtual standstill. In March, continues to reel from the COVID-19 €7 billion ($7.9 billion) bailout package Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es the International Air Transport Asso- crisis,” says Thomas Reynaert, man- in April, part of a broader objective of tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing ciation (IATA) began lobbying ICAO aging director of Airlines for Europe cutting CO2 emissions per passenger and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. to modify the program to reflect the (A4E). The group’s members include kilometer by 50% by 2030 compared ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines in service with changed situation. Air France-KLM; International Air- with 2005 levels. more than 400 military operators. 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Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 are underway, aviation industry tain a level of ambition comparable Although the move to link financial emissions in 2020 will be dramati- to that which underpinned Corsia’s help to emissions action has broadly

LOGO: ARTHOBBIT/UNDEFINED UNDEFINED/WASTESOUL/MARYLOO-GETTY IMAGES LOGO: ARTHOBBIT/UNDEFINED UNDEFINED/WASTESOUL/MARYLOO-GETTY cally lower than predicted precoro- adoption: Net emissions will be stabi- been welcomed, some environmental

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 25 COMMERCIAL AVITION

campaigners say the conditions do not go far enough. COVID-19 Spurs Drastic Changes in The Brussels-based lobby group Transport and Environment says Asia-Pacific Fleet Strategies reducing emissions from domestic French flights by 50% by 2024 would > ALMOST ALL ASIA-PACIFIC AIRLINES ARE LOOKING TO DEFER cut French aviation emissions by only 2020 DELIVERIES 0.8%, and that the condition should be expanded to routes where rail jour- > MANY WIDEBODIES WILL BE GROUNDED FOR SOME TIME neys under 5 hr. exist, which it said OR RETIRED EARLY would make the reduction 4.5%. The organization is part of a group of Adrian Schofield Auckland nongovernmental organizations making up the International Coalition for n a span of just 5-6 months, COVID-19 and amplified by the latest crisis. Sustainable Aviation (ICSA), which has rendered airline fleet plans However, despite the prevailing also criticized the ICAO decision, say- Icompletely irrelevant to market trends, some airlines are still plan- ing: “The ICAO Council’s decision to realities. Asia-Pacific airlines are ning to receive orders—or in rare further deflate the ambition of Corsia now scrambling to defer this year’s cases are even contemplating adding is a betrayal to future generations and a aircraft deliveries and reassessing new types. slap in the face to the multilateral work long-term orders as they look to re - Two of the region’s major players in to build the program.” align their strategies with the indus- the international connecting market, It added: “Airlines, in pushing for try’s bleak outlook. Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Cathay this change, have undermined their With so much of their fleets like - Pacific, are holding negotiations with own case for international action. ly to remain parked for an extended manufacturers about delivery deferrals. Given ICAO’s unwillingness to lead, The SIA Group has ICSA urges governments to adopt na- about 150 aircraft on tional measures to support the climate Asia-Paciﬁc In-Service Fleet* order from Boeing and ambition that is needed.” By percentage of total seats Airbus. While it has The U.S.-based Environmental not divulged details 0.8% Defense Fund (EDF) also criticized 0.8% about what types will ICAO’s move. 3.5% 6.2% be delayed, the carrier “With offset obligations likely sus- has stressed that its pended for the pilot phase, today’s 4.4% fleet renewal program decision leaves the field wide open 5.0% will remain an import- for governments—at local, state and ant part of its strategy. 42.4% national levels to require airlines to 6.9% Major owner Temasek integrate climate action into their Holdings also reiterated economic recovery,” wrote Annie its support of fleet mod- Petsonk, EDF international counsel, ernization. on June 30. “That could, in turn, leave Because newer air- the industry with the very patchwork craft will be returned of regulations it fears.” 29.9% to service first, some of The EDF also called into question SIA’s older aircraft such the legitimacy of the 36-member Airbus Boeing as its Boeing 777-200s ICAO Council “unilaterally” deciding A320 A330 A350 737 777 787 767 will be retired early. to change the baseline without fully The carrier also intends consulting the more than 190 ICAO de Havilland Canada Other to return its remaining member states. DHC-8 Airbus A330s to lessors. “[The move] set a troubling prec- *As of July 6, 2020. Not including inactive aircraft. Cathay Pacific Group edent for the legitimacy of future has 17 aircraft due to be decision-making by the [United Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation delivered this year, com- Nations’] aviation body,” Petsonk prising Airbus A350s wrote. “As airlines scramble to re - period—particularly international and A320/321neos. The carrier is cover from the COVID-19 crisis, they aircraft—airlines in the region have working with Airbus to delay as many can’t afford to ignore the looming little appetite to add new aircraft if of these as possible into 2021 or be - global crisis of climate change. Real they can avoid it. There will also be yond, says Ronald Lam, Cathay’s chief leadership means setting the avia- significant changes in the composition customer and commercial officer. tion sector on a path toward net zero of existing fleets as larger aircraft are The airline has a total of 70 deliv- climate impacts as swiftly as possi- retired early or grounded for the fore- eries due through 2024. This includes ble. The sooner the costs of carbon seeable future. 21 Boeing 777-9s scheduled to start control are included in the costs of Some moves by Asia-Pacific carri- arriving in 2021, and one of Cathay’s doing business, the sooner new tech- ers to scale back growth were already options would be to delay these and ex- nologies will be developed.” c occurring and have been accelerated tend leases on some of its current 777s.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVITION campaigners say the conditions do not In Japan, All Nippon Airways (ANA) AirAsia has deferred all of its least a year. Its 12 A380s will be stored go far enough. COVID-19 Spurs Drastic Changes in confirmed it is considering deferring Airbus narrowbody deliveries sched- for at least three years, although the The Brussels-based lobby group aircraft deliveries as it looks for ways uled this year due to the COVID-19 airline stresses it will eventually re- Transport and Environment says Asia-Pacific Fleet Strategies to reduce capital expenditure. How- demand downturn. Its widebody turn them to service. reducing emissions from domestic ever, the airline says its “long-term affiliate, AirAsia X, has shelved its In the longer term, the carrier French flights by 50% by 2024 would > ALMOST ALL ASIA-PACIFIC AIRLINES ARE LOOKING TO DEFER strategy to expand overseas remains A330neo deliveries. still intends to pursue its plans to cut French aviation emissions by only 2020 DELIVERIES unchanged,” and that would require Indian low-cost carrier (LCC) order aircraft to operate ultra-long- 0.8%, and that the condition should be more aircraft. The carrier may pro- IndiGo says it will continue to take haul flights from Australia’s east expanded to routes where rail jour- > MANY WIDEBODIES WILL BE GROUNDED FOR SOME TIME vide an update on its fleet plans when delivery of A320neos. It will switch coast to London or New York, says neys under 5 hr. exist, which it said OR RETIRED EARLY its next financial results are released its focus from growth to fleet renewal, CEO Alan Joyce. Qantas has select- would make the reduction 4.5%. at the end of July. One change that The organization is part of a group of Adrian Schofield Auckland has been announced is the deferral of nongovernmental organizations mak- the airline’s third Airbus A380. ANA Cathay Pacific and many other Asian airlines are negotiating ing up the International Coalition for n a span of just 5-6 months, COVID-19 and amplified by the latest crisis. is currently scheduled to begin re - to delay aircraft due this year. Sustainable Aviation (ICSA), which has rendered airline fleet plans However, despite the prevailing ceiving 777-9s next year and also has also criticized the ICAO decision, say- Icompletely irrelevant to market trends, some airlines are still plan- other types remaining on order. ing: “The ICAO Council’s decision to realities. Asia-Pacific airlines are ning to receive orders—or in rare Meanwhile, Japan Airlines has al- further deflate the ambition of Corsia now scrambling to defer this year’s cases are even contemplating adding ready received three 787s and two is a betrayal to future generations and a aircraft deliveries and reassessing new types. A350s this year. The carrier says it slap in the face to the multilateral work long-term orders as they look to re - Two of the region’s major players in has no plans yet to seek deferrals, but to build the program.” align their strategies with the indus- the international connecting market, the delivery timetable may be altered It added: “Airlines, in pushing for try’s bleak outlook. Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Cathay anyway due to manufacturer produc- this change, have undermined their With so much of their fleets like - Pacific, are holding negotiations with tion delays. JAL’s widebody orders own case for international action. ly to remain parked for an extended manufacturers about delivery deferrals. consist of A350s. Given ICAO’s unwillingness to lead, The SIA Group has Korean Air has deferred all of its ICSA urges governments to adopt na- about 150 aircraft on deliveries planned for this year, the tional measures to support the climate Asia-Paciﬁc In-Service Fleet* order from Boeing and carrier tells Aviation Week. It was ambition that is needed.” By percentage of total seats Airbus. While it has previously expecting to receive 10 The U.S.-based Environmental not divulged details deliveries, comprising four 787-9s 0.8% Defense Fund (EDF) also criticized 0.8% about what types will and six 737 MAXs. More than half of ICAO’s move. 3.5% 6.2% be delayed, the carrier the carrier’s fleet remains grounded, “With offset obligations likely sus- has stressed that its including all A380s and 747-8 passen- pended for the pilot phase, today’s 4.4% fleet renewal program ger aircraft. decision leaves the field wide open 5.0% will remain an import- Vietnam Airlines was due to take A. DOUMENJOU/AIRBUS for governments—at local, state and ant part of its strategy. delivery of seven aircraft this year: 42.4% using the new deliveries to phase out ed A350-1000s for these flights, al- national levels to require airlines to 6.9% Major owner Temasek five A320neos and two 787-10s. How- integrate climate action into their Holdings also reiterated ever, the airline is in discussions with older aircraft more quickly. though it has put the firm order pro- economic recovery,” wrote Annie its support of fleet mod- the manufacturers to defer some of One of the major longer-term is- cess on hold. Petsonk, EDF international counsel, ernization. them until next year. sues for Asia-Pacific LCCs is their Virgin Australia is another airline on June 30. “That could, in turn, leave Because newer air- Some Asia-Pacific carriers were massive order backlogs. For example, with 737 MAX orders on its books. the industry with the very patchwork craft will be returned already in negotiations regarding four LCCs—IndiGo, Lion Air, VietJet However, last year it delayed the of regulations it fears.” 29.9% to service first, some of the deferral or possible cancella- and AirAsia—account for a combined first delivery of these aircraft to July The EDF also called into question SIA’s older aircraft such tion of their 737 MAX orders before 1,700 narrowbody orders. If demand 2021. The longer-term fate of these the legitimacy of the 36-member Airbus Boeing as its Boeing 777-200s COVID-19 emerged. The worsening does not fully return for 2-3 years, orders is uncertain, as the carrier is ICAO Council “unilaterally” deciding A320 A330 A350 737 777 787 767 will be retired early. industry outlook will increase their re- these orders could become a serious under voluntary administration and to change the baseline without fully The carrier also intends solve not to receive these aircraft or at headache for the LCCs and the man- will soon be sold to a new owner. The consulting the more than 190 ICAO de Havilland Canada Other to return its remaining least delay them for a significant time. ufacturers alike. airline has also accelerated the exit of member states. DHC-8 Airbus A330s to lessors. Garuda Indonesia accepted one of In Australasia, Air New Zealand the remaining nine A320s that were “[The move] set a troubling prec- *As of July 6, 2020. Not including inactive aircraft. Cathay Pacific Group the 50 737 MAX 8s it had on order be- has pushed back the delivery of some operated by its Tigerair subsidiary. edent for the legitimacy of future has 17 aircraft due to be fore deferring the remainder in 2017. of its A321neos. The airline’s 777- Virgin CEO Paul Scurrah previ- decision-making by the [United Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation delivered this year, com- The airline will cancel these MAX 200ERs could be phased out earlier ously said the carrier would consider Nations’] aviation body,” Petsonk prising Airbus A350s orders, CEO Irfan Setiaputra con- than scheduled; they have been put ordering new widebodies to replace wrote. “As airlines scramble to re - period—particularly international and A320/321neos. The carrier is firmed during a televised Bloomberg into long-term storage and are unlike- its 777s and A330s, but such a move cover from the COVID-19 crisis, they aircraft—airlines in the region have working with Airbus to delay as many interview in March. He did not reveal ly to be needed before their planned will now depend on the new owner’s can’t afford to ignore the looming little appetite to add new aircraft if of these as possible into 2021 or be - whether the carrier is discussing tak- exit after 2022. appetite for long-haul routes. global crisis of climate change. Real they can avoid it. There will also be yond, says Ronald Lam, Cathay’s chief ing other Boeing aircraft instead. The Qantas Group will defer its One of the few airlines looking leadership means setting the avia- significant changes in the composition customer and commercial officer. Malaysia Airlines stated in Jan- 787-9 and A321neo deliveries that are to add new types is Australian tur- tion sector on a path toward net zero of existing fleets as larger aircraft are The airline has a total of 70 deliv- uary that it will not take delivery in due this year. The carrier’s six re - boprop operator Regional Express climate impacts as swiftly as possi- retired early or grounded for the fore- eries due through 2024. This includes 2020 of any of its 737 MAX orders. maining 747-400ERs will not return to Holdings. The carrier has confirmed ble. The sooner the costs of carbon seeable future. 21 Boeing 777-9s scheduled to start It was due to receive its first six this service, meaning they will effectively plans to launch jet services on do - control are included in the costs of Some moves by Asia-Pacific carri- arriving in 2021, and one of Cathay’s year. The airline has 25 MAX-family be retired six months early. mestic trunk routes by March 2021, doing business, the sooner new tech- ers to scale back growth were already options would be to delay these and ex- aircraft on order, including the 737-8 Qantas estimates about 100 of its which will require 5-10 narrowbody nologies will be developed.” c occurring and have been accelerated tend leases on some of its current 777s. and -10 models. aircraft will remain grounded for at aircraft. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 27 CONNECTED AEROSPACE

How The Aviation Industry Can Deal tween adjacent frequencies of 8.33 kHz from 25 kHz, increasing the With the ‘Data Link Dilemma’ number of channels available to re- lieve growing congestion in the VHF > VHF ACARS IS CHALLENGED BY INCREASED DATA band used for aviation voice and data communications. > HIGHER-CAPACITY ADVANCED VHF IS PROPOSED Congestion issues with VHF ACARS led to the development of the higher- Bill Carey Washington bandwidth VHF Digital Link Mode 2 (VDL2) data link in the early 2000s. ollins Aerospace is recommend- “We as stakeholders are in many VDL2 is the means of transmission the ing steps the aviation industry ways obligated to be stewards of that FAA and European ANSPs have spec- Ccan take to safeguard data link and protect it and evolve it until the ified for CPDLC over ground. messaging between pilots and their next generations of technology are As the rate of air travel has grown in airlines and air traffic controllers un- ready to take over,” he adds. recent years, airlines and ANSPs con- til a new aviation communications net- During a recent webcast, entitled tinue to rely on VHF-based ACARS, work is established. “The Data Link Dilemma,” Pendergast Collins says. But congestion looms as a

Global Growth in New-Generation Aircraft

A A A A

NG L Source: Collins Aerospace

Citing a growing volume of data be- recapped the history of the ACARS problem, exacerbated by the entry into ing transmitted via Aircraft Commu- communications protocol, which was service of newer aircraft types such nications Addressing and Reporting introduced by ARINC—now part of as the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus System (ACARS) messages over ter- Collins Aerospace—in 1978 using its A320neo that generate four times the restrial VHF radio networks, Collins VHF radio network as the means of amount of engine and systems data as proposes two steps to relieving poten- transmission. legacy airliners. tial future congestion as new-genera- Intended for data messaging be- “That’s been a significant revelation tion aircraft produce ever more data. tween pilots and airline operations cen- as newer versions of aircraft have come Ultimately, the industry’s goal is to ters, the system was expanded in the out,” Pendergast says. “Especially from establish an internet protocol suite early 1990s to include Future Air Nav- narrowbody aircraft—the A320neo (IPS) for aviation, an IP-based com- igation System controller-pilot data and the 737 MAX—VHF ACARS is be- munications architecture that would link communications (CPDLC) with air ing used to send the information. Why? be agnostic about the type of media navigation service providers (ANSP), Because there really is not another link used to send messages. routed by satellite over oceans. on the airplane that has been set up “We began a journey over 40 years ACARS messages can now be sent to send all this data. So VHF data is ago with data link, and this journey has over IP-based broadband and legacy growing, and the reason “it is growing evolved over time. Our VHF network satellite communications (satcom), is engine and aircraft data.” especially has grown in capabilities VHF, high-frequency data link, cellular Collins estimates that just 7% of and become more valuable to not only and WiFi networks. Collins and Gene- the current world fleet is what it airlines but air traffic control author- va-based SITA are the major aviation calls next-generation aircraft, with ities,” says Dan Pendergast, Collins data link service providers. 71% consisting of legacy aircraft and Aerospace head of flight deck data link In the late 1990s, Eurocontrol re- 22% regional aircraft. The fleet mix connectivity services. quired reduced channel spacing be- becomes more balanced in 2029 with

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST CONNECTED AEROSPACE

How The Aviation Industry Can Deal tween adjacent frequencies of 8.33 51% next-generation aircraft; in 2034, “One thing about it that we need est modifications to airborne radi- kHz from 25 kHz, increasing the Collins projects that 64% of the fleet to work on [is] we need to fine-tune os and ground infrastructure in a With the ‘Data Link Dilemma’ number of channels available to re- will be data-intensive next-generation [AoIP] to offload engine and aircraft backward-compatible manner to in- lieve growing congestion in the VHF aircraft. information. The early implementa- crease the capacity, the data rate of a > VHF ACARS IS CHALLENGED BY INCREASED DATA band used for aviation voice and data The Collins technology road map tions we believe are not quite there VDL frequency.” communications. for data link calls for step improve - yet,” Pendergast acknowledges. “If The VHF system refresh requires > HIGHER-CAPACITY ADVANCED VHF IS PROPOSED Congestion issues with VHF ACARS ments leading to the IPS. The compa- the aircraft has a capability to choose buy-in from airlines and ANSPs. led to the development of the higher- ny has already implemented ACARS- between the IP and the narrowband Collins wants to advance it as an in- Bill Carey Washington bandwidth VHF Digital Link Mode 2 over-IP (AoIP), which enables aircraft links and the safety services links to dustry-standard approach focused on (VDL2) data link in the early 2000s. to send and receive ACARS messages send different information, that’s an safety service performance that makes ollins Aerospace is recommend- “We as stakeholders are in many VDL2 is the means of transmission the by either IP-based satcom, including ideal state.” business sense, Pendergast says. ing steps the aviation industry ways obligated to be stewards of that FAA and European ANSPs have spec- new-generation, operational and safe- Another step the company propos- “What we’re talking about are mod- Ccan take to safeguard data link and protect it and evolve it until the ified for CPDLC over ground. ty-oriented SwiftBroadband-Safety es is to extend the usable life span of est modifications, performance chang- messaging between pilots and their next generations of technology are As the rate of air travel has grown in and Iridium Certus flight deck ser- VDL through Advanced VHF. It would es to the aircraft radios leveraging the airlines and air traffic controllers un- ready to take over,” he adds. recent years, airlines and ANSPs con- vices, or cellular links. implement a new, higher-through- same systems that are on the airplane, til a new aviation communications net- During a recent webcast, entitled tinue to rely on VHF-based ACARS, Collins recommends dividing the put VDL2 waveform that would be leveraging the VHF and VDL ground work is established. “The Data Link Dilemma,” Pendergast Collins says. But congestion looms as a data an aircraft offloads—sending backward-compatible with current networks that have been deployed,” engine and aircraft data over broad- aircraft radios and VHF ground net- he says. band Ka/Ku-band cabin connectivity works. “We believe we can have [Ad- Global Growth in New-Generation Aircraft systems, for example, and operational “Twenty years have passed since vanced VHF] deployed in the next and safety-critical data over VDL or [the development of] VDL; we be - 3-5 years, which would give us time satcom safety services. It estimates lieve it’s time for a tech refresh of to address capacity issues with initia- A A A A that up to 75% of ACARS data can VHF,” Pendergast says. “How can tives like ACARS-over-IP and extend be offloaded from VHF to IP-based we do this? There is a way in a more the life of VHF until new technologies connectivity. cost-effective manner to make mod- are available.” c ACARS Over Internet Protocol Overview

IP, ACARS ACARS ACARS IP, ACARS Cell/Wi-Fi NG L Source: Collins Aerospace and AoIP and AoIP Provider Infrastructure

Citing a growing volume of data be- recapped the history of the ACARS problem, exacerbated by the entry into ing transmitted via Aircraft Commu- communications protocol, which was service of newer aircraft types such VHF HFDL Cell/Wi-Fi nications Addressing and Reporting introduced by ARINC—now part of as the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus IP and Safety AoIP Domain System (ACARS) messages over ter- Collins Aerospace—in 1978 using its A320neo that generate four times the SATCOM restrial VHF radio networks, Collins VHF radio network as the means of amount of engine and systems data as proposes two steps to relieving poten- transmission. legacy airliners. tial future congestion as new-genera- Intended for data messaging be- “That’s been a significant revelation tion aircraft produce ever more data. tween pilots and airline operations cen- as newer versions of aircraft have come Ultimately, the industry’s goal is to ters, the system was expanded in the out,” Pendergast says. “Especially from IP and Broadband Services establish an internet protocol suite early 1990s to include Future Air Nav- narrowbody aircraft—the A320neo applicaion serices (IPS) for aviation, an IP-based com- igation System controller-pilot data and the 737 MAX—VHF ACARS is be- isriuion anaeen AviNet Ground Network Services munications architecture that would link communications (CPDLC) with air ing used to send the information. Why? aa processin eor proocol an essae Because there really is not another link ora conersions be agnostic about the type of media navigation service providers (ANSP), Global Message Processing Users used to send messages. routed by satellite over oceans. on the airplane that has been set up GLOBALink Services ACARS over IP rounoroun essae rouin “We began a journey over 40 years ACARS messages can now be sent to send all this data. So VHF data is an ACAS airoroun aa processin ago with data link, and this journey has over IP-based broadband and legacy growing, and the reason “it is growing evolved over time. Our VHF network satellite communications (satcom), is engine and aircraft data.” especially has grown in capabilities VHF, high-frequency data link, cellular Collins estimates that just 7% of and become more valuable to not only and WiFi networks. Collins and Gene- the current world fleet is what it AoIP ACARS over internet protocol HFDL High-frequency data link IP Internet protocol airlines but air traffic control author- va-based SITA are the major aviation calls next-generation aircraft, with ities,” says Dan Pendergast, Collins data link service providers. 71% consisting of legacy aircraft and Aerospace head of flight deck data link In the late 1990s, Eurocontrol re- 22% regional aircraft. The fleet mix connectivity services. quired reduced channel spacing be- becomes more balanced in 2029 with Source: Collins Aerospace

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 29 PROPULSION

ZeroAvia Prepares for Hydrogen to an anode on one side and air to a cathode on the other. At the anode, a Fuel-Cell Propulsion Flight Tests platinum catalyst splits the hydrogen into protons and electrons. Protons > PIPER MALIBU WILL TEST 600-KW FUEL-CELL PROPULSION SYSTEM migrate through a polymer electrolyte membrane to the cathode. Electrons > 20-SEAT REGIONAL AIRCRAFT TO USE TWO OF THE HYDROGEN flow around an external circuit, creat- POWER TRAINS ing electricity. Protons and electrons then recombine at the cathode, producing water and heat. In addition to zero carbon emissions, the advantages of hydrogen fuel-cell

The Malibu Mirage testbed will be fitted with 350-bar gaseous hydrogen tanks in the cabin.

propulsion include higher energy density than batteries and higher efficiency ZEROAVIA than gas turbines. “Turbines are only close [in efficiency] to fuel cells at the large end,” says Miftakhov. “Compared with smaller turbines like the PT6, fuel Graham Warwick Washington cells are twice as efficient.” A disadvantage compared with tur- s attention turns to hydrogen tank and refueling technology. For 20- bines is lower specific power. “We see propulsion for climate-neutral seat applications, analysis of weight a path to 1.5-2 kW/kg within the next A aviation, particularly in Eu- and drag shows a sweet spot in the five years, compared with small tur- rope, startup ZeroAvia is converting 300-500 bar range, Miftakhov says, bines powering 20-seaters at 3 kW/ an existing 20-seat regional aircraft to and the aircraft selected for modifica- kg,” Miftakhov says. Power densities zero-emissions fuel-cell power. tion provides flexibility in where the of 4-5 kW/kg, similar to a CFM56 tur- As a first step, ZeroAvia plans to fly tanks can be mounted, either under bofan, are achievable in 10 years, he a six-seat Piper Malibu Mirage con- the wing or over the fuselage. says, which could expand application verted into a propulsion testbed for its Hydrogen volume is a challenge. to aircraft above 100 seats. hydrogen fuel-cell power train. With “Slower aircraft are better initially, “Today, fuel-cell technology is ad- an electric motor replacing its piston as there is not as much aerodynamic equate for a 500-nm 20-seater,” says engine, the aircraft has completed a penalty and lower energy demand,” Miftakhov. The biggest challenge is series of battery-powered test flights Miftakhov says. Safety is another con- not the fuel-cell stack itself, but “the from Cranfield Airport in the UK. cern, but “gaseous hydrogen is safer balance of plant,” or supporting com- The hydrogen power train has been than jet fuel” as it dissipates rapidly, he ponents for gas handling, recirculation tested on the ground and will now be says. The system integrates low-pres- and thermal management. “This is the installed in the Malibu. “We will start sure lines, safety valves, flow limiters heaviest part of the fuel-cell power testing in the aircraft pretty soon and and automatic shutoffs for safety. train. For power density, balance of fly in the next 6-8 weeks,” CEO Val The hydrogen-powered Malibu is be- plant is the critical path.” Miftakhov told Aviation Week on July 3. ing tested under Project HyFlyer, sup- For the initial 20-seat application, The 600-kW power train is fully ported by a £2.7 million ($3.4 million) thermal management is a challenge redundant, with dual windings on the grant from the UK government. Part- because waste heat is rejected at low electric motor, dual inverters, dual ners are renewable hydrogen producer temperatures, making it hard to re- low-temperature proton exchange EMEC Hydrogen, fuel-cell developer move, particularly on hot days. “Oper- membrane fuel-cell stacks and redun- Intelligent Energy, as well as Cranfield ating at 80-90C [180-190F] and taking dant cooling. Sufficient gaseous hy- University and Cranfield Aerospace off from Phoenix on a 50C day leaves drogen for 300-nm range is stored in Solutions, which operate Cranfield Air- only 40C delta T [temperature differ- pressurized tanks in the cabin. port where the aircraft is based. ence],” he says. Using automotive fuel-cell technol- HyFlyer is to culminate in a 250- ZeroAvia plans to have its hydrogen ogy, the power train is sized to replace 300-nm flight from the Orkney Islands fuel-cell power train certified in an ex- Pratt & Whitney PT6-class turboprops in Scotland. As part of the project, a isting 20-seat aircraft by 2023. While powering a range of regional airliners. hydrogen refueling infrastructure has the capital cost is expected to be similar To be launched soon, the initial 20-seat been commissioned at Cranfield. Hy- to turbine propulsion, operating cost is application will use two of the power drogen is produced on-site through projected at be almost halved. “In three trains tested in the Malibu, with hydro- electrolysis using renewable electric- years, we will definitely beat the jet-fuel gen for 500-nm range. ity, then distributed to the aircraft by economics of small aircraft,” Miftakhov Hydrogen is stored at 350 bar (5,000 refueling truck. predicts. “In 5-7 years, we will beat jet psi) using standard heavy-duty vehicle In a fuel-cell stack, hydrogen is fed fuel on larger aircraft.” c

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION

The Malibu Mirage testbed will be fitted with 350-bar gaseous hydrogen tanks in the cabin. propulsion include higher energy density than batteries and higher efficiency ZEROAVIA than gas turbines. “Turbines are only close [in efficiency] to fuel cells at the large end,” says Miftakhov. “Compared with smaller turbines like the PT6, fuel Graham Warwick Washington cells are twice as efficient.” A disadvantage compared with tur- s attention turns to hydrogen tank and refueling technology. For 20- bines is lower specific power. “We see propulsion for climate-neutral seat applications, analysis of weight a path to 1.5-2 kW/kg within the next A aviation, particularly in Eu- and drag shows a sweet spot in the five years, compared with small tur- rope, startup ZeroAvia is converting 300-500 bar range, Miftakhov says, bines powering 20-seaters at 3 kW/ an existing 20-seat regional aircraft to and the aircraft selected for modifica- kg,” Miftakhov says. Power densities zero-emissions fuel-cell power. tion provides flexibility in where the of 4-5 kW/kg, similar to a CFM56 tur- As a first step, ZeroAvia plans to fly tanks can be mounted, either under bofan, are achievable in 10 years, he a six-seat Piper Malibu Mirage con- the wing or over the fuselage. says, which could expand application verted into a propulsion testbed for its Hydrogen volume is a challenge. to aircraft above 100 seats. hydrogen fuel-cell power train. With “Slower aircraft are better initially, “Today, fuel-cell technology is ad- an electric motor replacing its piston as there is not as much aerodynamic equate for a 500-nm 20-seater,” says engine, the aircraft has completed a penalty and lower energy demand,” Miftakhov. The biggest challenge is series of battery-powered test flights Miftakhov says. Safety is another con- not the fuel-cell stack itself, but “the from Cranfield Airport in the UK. cern, but “gaseous hydrogen is safer balance of plant,” or supporting com- The hydrogen power train has been than jet fuel” as it dissipates rapidly, he ponents for gas handling, recirculation tested on the ground and will now be says. The system integrates low-pres- and thermal management. “This is the installed in the Malibu. “We will start sure lines, safety valves, flow limiters heaviest part of the fuel-cell power One JOurney testing in the aircraft pretty soon and and automatic shutoffs for safety. train. For power density, balance of fly in the next 6-8 weeks,” CEO Val The hydrogen-powered Malibu is be- plant is the critical path.” Miftakhov told Aviation Week on July 3. ing tested under Project HyFlyer, sup- For the initial 20-seat application, TOgeTher The 600-kW power train is fully ported by a £2.7 million ($3.4 million) thermal management is a challenge redundant, with dual windings on the grant from the UK government. Part- because waste heat is rejected at low electric motor, dual inverters, dual ners are renewable hydrogen producer temperatures, making it hard to re- Today and always, we are dedicated to keeping low-temperature proton exchange EMEC Hydrogen, fuel-cell developer move, particularly on hot days. “Oper- membrane fuel-cell stacks and redun- Intelligent Energy, as well as Cranfield ating at 80-90C [180-190F] and taking you safe, secure and connected. dant cooling. Sufficient gaseous hy- University and Cranfield Aerospace off from Phoenix on a 50C day leaves drogen for 300-nm range is stored in Solutions, which operate Cranfield Air- only 40C delta T [temperature differ- pressurized tanks in the cabin. port where the aircraft is based. ence],” he says. Using automotive fuel-cell technol- HyFlyer is to culminate in a 250- ZeroAvia plans to have its hydrogen ogy, the power train is sized to replace 300-nm flight from the Orkney Islands fuel-cell power train certified in an ex- Pratt & Whitney PT6-class turboprops in Scotland. As part of the project, a isting 20-seat aircraft by 2023. While powering a range of regional airliners. hydrogen refueling infrastructure has the capital cost is expected to be similar To be launched soon, the initial 20-seat been commissioned at Cranfield. Hy- to turbine propulsion, operating cost is application will use two of the power drogen is produced on-site through projected at be almost halved. “In three trains tested in the Malibu, with hydro- electrolysis using renewable electric- years, we will definitely beat the jet-fuel gen for 500-nm range. ity, then distributed to the aircraft by economics of small aircraft,” Miftakhov Hydrogen is stored at 350 bar (5,000 refueling truck. predicts. “In 5-7 years, we will beat jet psi) using standard heavy-duty vehicle In a fuel-cell stack, hydrogen is fed fuel on larger aircraft.” c

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW

‘Idiot’ to ‘Genius’

When he was United Technologies Corp. chairman and CEO, Greg Hayes took a lot of heat for merging his company with Raytheon to create aerospace powerhouse Raytheon Technologies. But the critics have been silenced as defense has cushioned the company from the battering the commercial downturn has inflicted on its Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney operations. Hayes spoke via videoconference with AW&ST Editor-in-Chief Joe Anselmo and Senior Business Editor Michael Bruno. RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES RAYTHEON

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

Caption here caption here caption here INTERVIEW

AW&ST: How long will it take the peans to fly to the U.S. We can’t go to come from engine design. At the Paris commercial aviation industry to re- South America or China. Those routes Air Show last year, we talked about a cover from the COVID-19 crisis? Ini- are going to take much, much longer hybrid electric design [Project 804]. ‘Idiot’ to ‘Genius’ tially, we thought this was going to to recover. We’re going to continue on that path. be like the severe acute respira tory The fact is there are so many ex- We’re trying to figure out how you can syndrome (SARS) in 2002-03. We cess aircraft out there right now that have enough power at takeoff while When he was United Technologies Corp. chairman thought it was going to be relatively we believe you’re going to see more having a much lower fuel consump- short-lived, where air traffic would go parting out of existing fleets before tion at cruise. And that’s where hybrid and CEO, Greg Hayes took a lot of heat for down for a little while but then grad- we see a resurgence. And that’s why electric comes in. It’s going to take us ually recover. I don’t think any of us even when passenger traffic starts to at least a decade to prove that out. merging his company with Raytheon to create envisioned the morbidity or the scope come back, there’s probably a full 6-12 I don’t know if hybrid electric is the aerospace powerhouse Raytheon Technologies. of this pandemic and its impact on months before we’re going to see a re- answer. There are other things that travel. I would say we’re looking now turn to normalcy in our aftermarket we’re working on. But obviously it’s But the critics have been silenced as defense at getting back to 2019 in 2023, maybe organization. got to be something completely dif- has cushioned the company from the battering 2024. It is going to be a slow recovery. ferent than what we’ve been building The good news is we’ve got plenty Pratt supplies the PW1000G en- in the past. the commercial downturn has inflicted on its of liquidity. We’ll see our way through gine option for the Airbus A320neo. Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney oper- this, but it is going to be a tough road. How much downside risk is there Governments around the world are We are hunkering down for a protract- for deliveries? We’re planning for taking on huge debt to alleviate the ations. Hayes spoke via videoconference with ed recession on the commercial aero about a 40% reduction in A320 de - coronavirus crisis. Are you worried AW&ST Editor-in-Chief Joe Anselmo and side. Our aftermarket orders are down liveries this year and next year com- that will put pressure on military 50%-plus at both Collins Aerospace pared with February 2020 production spending over the long term? Yo u Senior Business Editor Michael Bruno. and Pratt & Whitney. That’s where a rates. Airbus would love to build more, would have to have your head in the lot of the profits come from. The rea- but it’s not clear to us that customers sand to not understand what’s going to son we can spend $2.5 billion a year on are going to be around to take more happen to defense budgets over time. R&D for the commercial businesses is than that. The good news is our mar- When [Raytheon CEO] Tom Kennedy because we have this spares business ket share went from about 42% [of and I first talked about this merger, it that generates strong cash. When that A320neo engines] to north of 50% in was, “What can we do together that goes away, it’s tough. And as a result, the last year. Customers are starting we can’t do separately?” And it really we’re going to cut R&D this year by to believe in the geared turbofan be- was bringing the technologies of the $500 million on the commercial side. cause of the fuel efficiency. two companies together to solve cus- Unfortunately, the airlines are not tomer problems in new and innova- in a position to weather this storm Do you see the market share be- tive ways. for probably more than another 12 tween Airbus and Boeing shift - Defense budgets will go down, but months without government assis- ing? The order book for the A320 I think the real question is where tance. That’s really going to be the key. is much stronger today, with all the Defense Department spending is go- Do governments in the U.S., Europe, cancellations that we’ve seen on the ing. I remember talking two years ago South America and across Asia step 737 MAX because of delays. We still with [then-Defense Secretary] Gen. up to support what is a critical indus- think the 737 will get back in the air [James] Mattis, and he said, “Bring try in aerospace? this year, and we continue to work us innovative solutions, not to fight with Boeing on software updates. the last war but to fight the next war.” Is the industry underplaying the We firmly believe it’s a great aircraft. And the next war, he said, is going to severity of the COVID-19 down- Keep in mind we have about $2.5 mil- be fought in cyberspace and outer turn? A vaccine is the key, and it lion of content per shipset on the 737. space. The capabilities of the legacy has to be widely available. The World It’s going to be a tough couple of years, Raytheon business are second to none Health Organization is working on but we ultimately have faith in the air- in space and are outstanding on the that, but we’re going to have hotspots frame and the certification process. cyber side. You marry that up with the with this pandemic for the next year manufacturing and material science or two. So even if the U.S. and Europe Where are you focusing your future that Pratt & Whitney brings, with the are completely vaccinated, what does efforts with Boeing and Airbus? We communication systems that Rockwell that mean for travel to Africa, Asia, to were optimistically cautious about the Collins brings, and this is going to be the fast-growing markets? [proposed Boeing] new mid market a great play. I’d almost bifurcate the aerospace airplane (NMA), but there is a lot of industry between a narrowbody re- excess capacity now, and it’s not clear The U.S. Air Force wants more soft- covery and widebody recovery. The another evolutionary design is going ware-driven capabilities, delivered in narrowbody is primarily domestic, to be the answer. So our focus right weeks or even days. How does that whether it’s Europe, the U.S. or even now is the next-generation single- square with your businesses, which China. That will recover more quickly aisle. And we think that’s probably often involve long-term hardware as people become confident —there’s been pushed out a couple of years, to evolutions? It’s making sure that either a vaccine or they’ve found new maybe 2033 or 2035. we’re continuing to evolve our prod- treatment options. But on the inter- They’re talking about a 30% effi- ucts. The missiles we’re delivering national side, we can’t fly today into ciency gain from the current single- today, such as the SM-3 [interceptor] Europe, and we don’t want the Euro- aisle. Two-thirds of that gain has to or the SM-6 [anti-air/anti-surface/ RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES RAYTHEON

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 33

Caption here caption here caption here INTERVIEW ballistic missile defense] are state of there was a lot of criticism from in- technology bolt-ons as we think about the art, and we continue to find new vestors. Now they’re happy about what’s next in defense and the space uses for them. how well-positioned the combined and cyber spectrums. A lot of things will change over time company is to weather the COVID-19 Longer term, the big question in my in terms of how the weapons are de - storm. There was a lot of pushback mind is what happens to Rolls-Royce, a ployed. Think about the Storm Breaker from investors, especially from the great technology company that is fac- missile that we just demonstrated, hedge fund guys. They saw us taking a ing challenging financial circumstanc- which has the tri-mode seeker. It can lower-margin business, and they didn’t es. We loved the partnership Pratt had do things the last generation of mis- like the fact that the technology takes with Rolls on International Aero En- siles could never do in terms of going 5-10 years to pay off. I was roundly crit- gines. Could we recreate that someday? through smoke, fog, dust and sand. The icized. All I can say is I was an idiot a Perhaps, but not now. Ian Davis, who’s LRSO [Long-Range Standoff nuclear year ago and now I’m a genius, through the chairman over there, is a good guy. cruise missile] is another example. no fault of my own. We always say, “Look, we need to find And the Tomahawk is an established We did this for the long term, and ways to collaborate so we can take on product that we will evolve as the needs it was completely fortuitous that the GE Aviation.” Despite the fact that GE of the battlefield change to meet new merger happened when it did. The may be on its heels today, they’ve got requirements. That’s really what we commercial businesses won’t make any over 30,000 engines out there. Their want to focus on: How do we continue money this year, and they are going to aftermarket will recover, they will get software-driven solutions but also find struggle for the next couple of years, better, and they will be the formidable ways to redeploy and reinvigorate the but now we’ve got a rock-solid balance competitor for both Rolls and Raytheon product line and bring new capabilities sheet and a lot of cash. And that defense Technologies for the foreseeable future. to the warfighter? business is going to grow 5-8% this year. We’ve got a good backlog. I’d like to say We’re hearing from Wall Street that Are you making long-term invest- it was genius, but it really was just doing you’re expected to sell off the Force- ments in hypersonics? Hypersonics what’s right for the long term. My goal point business. Forcepoint is a com- are a destabilizing technology. There’s is to leave this company better than I mercial cyber business Tom Kennedy only so much we can talk about, but found it. created when he brought a couple of we know we’re behind the Chinese and companies together about five years probably behind the Russians. I think You have reshaped this company, ago. It has some great technology, but it in 3-5 years we’ll be on a level playing starting with selling Sikorsky to clearly doesn’t fit in the portfolio. We’ll field. Our focus has been on defensive Lockheed Martin in 2015. Then you figure that out in the next six months. systems, using space-based assets to acquired Rockwell Collins and moved track hypersonics. It’s nothing that a to break up the UTC conglomerate, How is the integration going? Noth- ground radar could ever do because and it looked like UTC was going to ing went according to plan except they move too fast. And then counter- be a commercial aerospace company. the merger itself. We sent everybody measures that we could use to defend Now comes Raytheon. Are you done, home the week of March 12 [because against hypersonics is the bigger mar- or is there more to come? I’m never of COVID-19], and we were still three ket. We’re obviously investing. We’ve done until I’m gone, but we don’t need weeks away from the merger. So we had got a program, the HAWC [Hypersonic to do anything else big. The driving to complete the merger and all of the in- Air-breathing Weapon Concept], which force [behind the Raytheon merger] tegration remotely. And we had to spin is an air-breathing hypersonic missile was putting two big technology com- off Carrier and Otis. All of that came to that we’re working on. I think we’ll panies together with cyclical balance fruition on time and exactly as we had flight-test that later this year. [between commercial and defense]. planned while working from home. The Also think about the materials sci- Tom Kennedy always felt he was at a resilience and the ingenuity of our folks ence that Pratt brings. The key to hy- disadvantage against the Lockheeds to figure all this out has probably been personics is how to keep the electronics of the world because of the scale of the most pleasing. from getting fried when you’re operat- Lockheed versus Raytheon. This gives There was some concern that the cul- ing at something like 5,000F. We’re in- us the scale to invest and compete head tures at Raytheon and the commercial vesting in cooling materials—that will on with the Lockheed Martins and guys at Pratt and Collins would never be one of the big bets that we’re going Northrop Grummans, as well as be - come together. That is the last thing to have to make. Tom Kennedy saw ing the largest supplier to both Boeing I worry about. Everything we laid out the need to make these investments, and Airbus. We have some clout in the has gotten done. We’re on track for and we’re going to do that. The other marketplace. synergies in cost, technology and rev- piece is on the space side. There’s not We’ve got 700,000 different things enue. The difference is I have yet to a lot that we can say, other than that that we deliver to customers: missiles, have a staff meeting in person. I’ve got we think space will be the frontier that APUs, engines, communications gear. 17 people who work for me, and we do will differentiate us—that is, the defense Some we really love; others don’t have everything on Zoom. Each one of our of space assets, as well as using space the returns that we want or require too three board meetings since the merger assets to detect, track and target hyper- much investment for a limited market. has been done on Zoom. If you had told sonic weapons. We hope to have a portfolio review me 3-4 months ago that we would be done by the end of the year. And you’ll working from home for a good deal of When the merger of United Technol- probably see some divestitures, but not time, I’d have really panicked. But we ogies and Raytheon was announced, big pieces. We also continue to look for figured it out. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST JULY 2020 INTERVIEW ballistic missile defense] are state of there was a lot of criticism from in- technology bolt-ons as we think about the art, and we continue to find new vestors. Now they’re happy about what’s next in defense and the space uses for them. how well-positioned the combined and cyber spectrums. ™ A lot of things will change over time company is to weather the COVID-19 Longer term, the big question in my in terms of how the weapons are de - storm. There was a lot of pushback mind is what happens to Rolls-Royce, a ployed. Think about the Storm Breaker from investors, especially from the great technology company that is fac- missile that we just demonstrated, hedge fund guys. They saw us taking a ing challenging financial circumstanc- which has the tri-mode seeker. It can lower-margin business, and they didn’t es. We loved the partnership Pratt had FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD do things the last generation of mis- like the fact that the technology takes with Rolls on International Aero En- siles could never do in terms of going 5-10 years to pay off. I was roundly crit- gines. Could we recreate that someday? through smoke, fog, dust and sand. The icized. All I can say is I was an idiot a Perhaps, but not now. Ian Davis, who’s How MRO LRSO [Long-Range Standoff nuclear year ago and now I’m a genius, through the chairman over there, is a good guy. cruise missile] is another example. no fault of my own. We always say, “Look, we need to find And the Tomahawk is an established We did this for the long term, and ways to collaborate so we can take on Could Climb Out product that we will evolve as the needs it was completely fortuitous that the GE Aviation.” Despite the fact that GE of the battlefield change to meet new merger happened when it did. The may be on its heels today, they’ve got requirements. That’s really what we commercial businesses won’t make any over 30,000 engines out there. Their of COVID-19 want to focus on: How do we continue money this year, and they are going to aftermarket will recover, they will get software-driven solutions but also find struggle for the next couple of years, better, and they will be the formidable ways to redeploy and reinvigorate the but now we’ve got a rock-solid balance competitor for both Rolls and Raytheon product line and bring new capabilities sheet and a lot of cash. And that defense Technologies for the foreseeable future. to the warfighter? business is going to grow 5-8% this year. We’ve got a good backlog. I’d like to say We’re hearing from Wall Street that Are you making long-term invest- it was genius, but it really was just doing you’re expected to sell off the Force- ments in hypersonics? Hypersonics what’s right for the long term. My goal point business. Forcepoint is a com- are a destabilizing technology. There’s is to leave this company better than I mercial cyber business Tom Kennedy only so much we can talk about, but found it. created when he brought a couple of we know we’re behind the Chinese and companies together about five years probably behind the Russians. I think You have reshaped this company, ago. It has some great technology, but it in 3-5 years we’ll be on a level playing starting with selling Sikorsky to clearly doesn’t fit in the portfolio. We’ll field. Our focus has been on defensive Lockheed Martin in 2015. Then you figure that out in the next six months. systems, using space-based assets to acquired Rockwell Collins and moved track hypersonics. It’s nothing that a to break up the UTC conglomerate, How is the integration going? Noth- ground radar could ever do because and it looked like UTC was going to ing went according to plan except they move too fast. And then counter- be a commercial aerospace company. the merger itself. We sent everybody measures that we could use to defend Now comes Raytheon. Are you done, home the week of March 12 [because against hypersonics is the bigger mar- or is there more to come? I’m never of COVID-19], and we were still three ket. We’re obviously investing. We’ve done until I’m gone, but we don’t need weeks away from the merger. So we had got a program, the HAWC [Hypersonic to do anything else big. The driving to complete the merger and all of the in- Air-breathing Weapon Concept], which force [behind the Raytheon merger] tegration remotely. And we had to spin is an air-breathing hypersonic missile was putting two big technology com- off Carrier and Otis. All of that came to that we’re working on. I think we’ll panies together with cyclical balance fruition on time and exactly as we had flight-test that later this year. [between commercial and defense]. planned while working from home. The Also think about the materials sci- Tom Kennedy always felt he was at a resilience and the ingenuity of our folks ence that Pratt brings. The key to hy- disadvantage against the Lockheeds to figure all this out has probably been personics is how to keep the electronics of the world because of the scale of the most pleasing. from getting fried when you’re operat- Lockheed versus Raytheon. This gives There was some concern that the cul- ing at something like 5,000F. We’re in- us the scale to invest and compete head tures at Raytheon and the commercial vesting in cooling materials—that will on with the Lockheed Martins and guys at Pratt and Collins would never be one of the big bets that we’re going Northrop Grummans, as well as be - come together. That is the last thing to have to make. Tom Kennedy saw ing the largest supplier to both Boeing I worry about. Everything we laid out the need to make these investments, and Airbus. We have some clout in the has gotten done. We’re on track for and we’re going to do that. The other marketplace. synergies in cost, technology and rev- piece is on the space side. There’s not We’ve got 700,000 different things enue. The difference is I have yet to a lot that we can say, other than that that we deliver to customers: missiles, have a staff meeting in person. I’ve got WestJet’s we think space will be the frontier that APUs, engines, communications gear. 17 people who work for me, and we do will differentiate us—that is, the defense Some we really love; others don’t have everything on Zoom. Each one of our Fortuitous Decision of space assets, as well as using space the returns that we want or require too three board meetings since the merger assets to detect, track and target hyper- much investment for a limited market. has been done on Zoom. If you had told sonic weapons. We hope to have a portfolio review me 3-4 months ago that we would be done by the end of the year. And you’ll working from home for a good deal of PRODUCT SUPPORT RANKINGS When the merger of United Technol- probably see some divestitures, but not time, I’d have really panicked. But we ogies and Raytheon was announced, big pieces. We also continue to look for figured it out. c Why OEMs Are Slipping

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Brains behind the brawn

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MRO 4 NEWS BRIEFS & CONTRACTS MAINTENANCE CHECK

SAFETY & REGULATORY MRO 5 PW4000 Blade Failure The Path Forward MRO 7 ARSA Update ur industry’s recovery is like putting together AIRLINE INSIGHT an 18,000-piece puzzle MRO 8 WestJet Airlines O COO Jeff Martin talks about without seeing the picture on the airline’s new OCC and ICC the top of the box. You know it’s “You have to continue to be able all going to fit together, but the to look around the corner.” MAINTENANCE, REPAIR & OVERHAUL process will be challenging and MRO 10 The Aftermarket’s Rebuild require patience and focus. But once small sections start forming, Scenarios around what it will get easier and easier to assemble. recovery means While the picture has not yet been around the corner.” For instance, he OPERATIONS revealed to us, we are seeing glimpses and his team are seeking ways to re- MRO 16 OEMs’ Customer of what our 276 X 192-cm (9 X 6-ft. duce carbon emissions and save fuel. Support Rankings 4 in.) puzzle will look like. “You can’t let your guard down right CFM topples Boeing as the For starters, 47% of the global fleet is now just because you’re in the middle highest-ranked OEM back in service, compared to 38% last of crisis; eventually we will be back in month, and the percentage of parked full competition mode, and low cost will MRO 19 Old Dog Learns New aircraft has dropped to 24% from 35% win the day,” he says. See page MRO 08 Pooling Tricks last month, according to Aviation Week’s for the interview and AviationWeek. Roadblocks to parts pooling Fleet Discovery (see chart). Clearly, com/Inside-MRO for a longer version. come down as options expand more aircraft flying is good for the af- Another trend is that MROs and termarket and the industry in general. suppliers need to reinvent their of- INTERVIEW ferings. “Aftermarket suppliers will MRO 20 MRO Market Recovery Fleet Status Share* need to establish more service-led ap- Lufthansa Technik’s CEO proaches to remain competitive,” says discusses COVID-19’s impact Stored Kellstrom executive David Greenwell. and the way forward In Service A key puzzle piece is digitalization, which has accelerated due to AVIONICS Parked the COVID crisis. “We developed ap- MRO 21 ICAO Postpones plications for communication, remote Distress Tracking inspections and repair decisions,” says Member states acknowledge Norbert Marx, Gameco’s CEO and gen- the industry wasn’t ready eral manager. Allowing customers to review critical work remotely is crucial ENGINEERED in these times and can make processes MRO 23 Of Fuel Tanks and Microbes Parked/Reserve more efficient as well. Mitigating microorganisms As o une To attempt to show you as many in fuel tanks is becoming a Source: Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery pieces of the puzzle as we can, Avia- bigger concern tion Week’s editors have created a se- Airlines like WestJet are taking ad- ries of Flight Paths Forward articles, AIRCRAFT ANALYSIS vantage of parked aircraft downtime to CEO video interviews and webinars— MRO 25 Permanently Grounded move various projects forward. WestJet across all industry segments, includ- Several widebody stalwarts technicians have been upgrading Boe- ing MRO, which can be accessed here: are set to exit the global fleet ing 737 cabins to make the passenger AviationWeek.com/AD-Week. I urge post-COVID-19 experience consistent with its 787s. you to check it out. The Canadian carrier’s technicians If you think the 18,000-piece puzzle MARKETPLACE also creatively saved millions of dollars sounds daunting, Guinness World Re- MRO 26 Cabin Cargo by covering flight controls and spoilers cords says the world’s biggest puzzle with hockey puck board to prevent hail consisted of 551,232 pieces and mea- VIEWPOINT damage. Chief Operating Officer Jeff sured 14.85 X 23.2 m (roughly 48 X 76 ft.). MRO 28 Ted Colbert, Boeing Martin cautions that while it’s easy to Our situation is challenging, but it be consumed by the COVID-19 crisis, could be worse. c ANNETTE FEASAL/ASCENT AVIATION SERVICES “you have to continue to be able to look —Lee Ann Shay

AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO3 O News Briefs

Highlights Contracts ATR won a 10-year Finnair contract to Qantas Plans Workforce Cuts, Groundings maintain 12 ATR 72-500s for Nordic Re- Qantas Airways has unveiled a three-year strategy to prepare for a slow airline industry recovery, including laying off 6,000 workers, storing or retiring larger gional Airlines under a pay-by-the-hour widebody airliners and raising A$1.9 billion ($1.3 billion) in new equity to fund GMA program. its plans. Duncan Aviation extended a deal with Job losses will affect Qantas and its Jetstar subsidiary. The company is esti- mating the 6,000 total cuts will include about 1,450 nonoperational and head- Meggitt to service/sell/distribute Secura- quarters workers; 1,500 ground-operations jobs; 1,050 cabin crewmembers; plane batteries for three more years. 630 from the engineering division and 220 pilots. Elbit Systems won a five-year, $38 mil- The crew and engineering cuts partly reflect the airline’s decision to retire its six remaining Boeing 747-400s about six months earlier than planned. Some lion contract to provide operation, mainte- jobs also will be lost as low-cost subsidiary Jetstar shifts aircraft maintenance nance and logistics for T-6 trainers for the from its Newcastle facility to another in Melbourne. Israeli Air Force. About 100 of the group’s aircraft will remain grounded for at least a year, including most of the international fleet. The airline’s 12 Airbus A380s will be FEAM Aero of Miami was selected by stored for at least three years. Qantas intends to return the A380s to service Air Wisconsin to provide CRJ200 line eventually, but for now they are too big to match anticipated international maintenance at Chicago O’Hare Interna- demand, says CEO Alan Joyce. tional Airport. Hackers Target MRO Provider GE Aviation won a five-year, $180 million In early June, a U.S. subsidiary of ST Engineering—VT San Antonio Aero- U.S. Navy contract to provide T700 repair/ space—suffered a serious cybersecurity breach. Ed Onwe, the aircraft MRO overhaul for MH-60, AH-1Z and UH-1Y provider’s general manager, reported that “a sophisticated group of cybercrimi- helicopters. nals, known as the Maze group, gained unauthorized access to our network and deployed a ransomware attack.” IAI Aviation Group secured a DHL Inter ST Engineering does not believe that IT systems beyond VT San Antonio national contract to convert another three in the wider group were also breached, but it is taking steps to strengthen its Boeing 767-300s to cargo; the deal in- overall cybersecurity architecture nonetheless. The company did not reveal what data may have been compromised, but cludes an option. Onwe acknowledged the need “to ensure that the data we are entrusted with Jet Support Services (JSSI) was select- remains safe and secure.” ed by Jetcraft as a partner to establish Taby Launches ATR Support a six-month post-purchase maintenance support package for its customers; the Sweden’s Taby Air Maintenance (TAM) welcomed its first ATR 72 into workshops at Orebro Airport. TAM will offer a full range of support for the ATR 72 program will cover engines, airframes and family of regional airliners, along with existing support for Saab 340s and 2000s. APUs; operators can enroll for full cover- The MRO is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the popular turbo- age after six months. prop. Par Gulle, TAM’s managing director, predicts solid and increasing future demand for ATR maintenance in Northern Europe and believes the ATR family Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace was will be the leading regional airline aircraft of the future. selected by Boeing to provide sustain- Looking further into the future, Gulle says cargo conversions of ATRs by ment and maintenance engineering for five TAM also are possible. “We are evaluating that. With the know-how we have P-8As on order by Norway; the agreement from doing numerous Saab 340 cargo conversions, I’d say a cargo conversion package for the ATR would be a natural next step after the Saab 340.” includes mechanic training, local parts distribution and a new service support center. Garuda’s Troubles Spread to MRO RUAG extended a contract with Safran to GMF Aeroasia posted a $31 million loss for the first three months of the year, maintain fuel control units for Makila-pow- compared with a $3 million profit in the prior-year period. Hit by COVID-19 ered Super Puma helicopters through 2021. disruption to its airline customers, especially former parent Garuda Indonesia, the listed Indonesian maintenance company saw revenues fall and its cash de- Triumph Systems & Support extended cline to just $3 million, from $30 million at the start of the year. its deal with a North America-based inde- The result is surprising given that in March, near the end of the quarter, the pendent MRO facility for repair and over- company reported higher demand from third-party customers because some airlines had been unable to land in China for scheduled maintenance. haul of CFM56, CF34 and CF6 engine ac- However, this was not sufficient to offset the huge dip in business from its cessories out of Grand Prairie, Texas, and main customer, which accounts for almost 90% of GMF’s sales. Wellington, Kansas, for five more years. GMF’s weak finances have pushed it into breach of some financial covenants, forcing it to request a waiver from creditors and restructuring of its bank loans.c Contracts Source: SpeedNews

MRO4 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O News Briefs O Safety & Regulatory

Highlights Contracts fatigue fracture that originated on Lack of Formal Inspection the interior cavity wall directly below ATR won a 10-year Finnair contract to the surface.” Qantas Plans Workforce Cuts, Groundings maintain 12 ATR 72-500s for Nordic Re- Procedure Linked to The incident occurred as United Qantas Airways has unveiled a three-year strategy to prepare for a slow airline gional Airlines under a pay-by-the-hour Flight 1175 was cruising at FL360 en industry recovery, including laying off 6,000 workers, storing or retiring larger route to Honolulu. “The flight crew widebody airliners and raising A$1.9 billion ($1.3 billion) in new equity to fund GMA program. PW4000 Blade Failure heard a loud bang that was followed its plans. Duncan Aviation extended a deal with Pratt & Whitney’s lack of sufficient a formal TAI training program con- by a violent shaking of the airplane Job losses will affect Qantas and its Jetstar subsidiary. The company is esti- mating the 6,000 total cuts will include about 1,450 nonoperational and head- Meggitt to service/sell/distribute Secura- training for an inspection process set tributed to technicians misdiagnos- followed by warnings of a compressor quarters workers; 1,500 ground-operations jobs; 1,050 cabin crewmembers; plane batteries for three more years. the stage for a PW4077 fan blade to ing an issue multiple times on the stall,” the report says. The crew shut fracture, forcing the crew of a United United blade that failed, mistakenly down the affected No. 2 engine, de - 630 from the engineering division and 220 pilots. Elbit Systems won a five-year, $38 mil- The crew and engineering cuts partly reflect the airline’s decision to retire Airlines Boeing 777-200 to shut the believing the finding was a product of clared an emergency and proceeded its six remaining Boeing 747-400s about six months earlier than planned. Some lion contract to provide operation, mainte- engine down and declare an emergen- the TAI process, not a problem with to Honolulu without further issues. jobs also will be lost as low-cost subsidiary Jetstar shifts aircraft maintenance nance and logistics for T-6 trainers for the cy while en route to Honolulu from the blade. Post-incident examination showed from its Newcastle facility to another in Melbourne. Israeli Air Force. San Francisco, the National Trans- “At the initial TAI accomplished on that “most of the inlet duct and all of About 100 of the group’s aircraft will remain grounded for at least a year, portation Safety Board (NTSB) says the fractured fan blade in 2010, there the left and right fan cowls were miss- including most of the international fleet. The airline’s 12 Airbus A380s will be FEAM Aero of Miami was selected by in its final report. stored for at least three years. Qantas intends to return the A380s to service Air Wisconsin to provide CRJ200 line The February 2018 eventually, but for now they are too big to match anticipated international maintenance at Chicago O’Hare Interna- incident’s roots trace demand, says CEO Alan Joyce. tional Airport. back to 2005, when Pratt developed a Hackers Target MRO Provider GE Aviation won a five-year, $180 million thermal acoustic im- In early June, a U.S. subsidiary of ST Engineering—VT San Antonio Aero- U.S. Navy contract to provide T700 repair/ aging (TAI) inspec- space—suffered a serious cybersecurity breach. Ed Onwe, the aircraft MRO overhaul for MH-60, AH-1Z and UH-1Y tion process for the provider’s general manager, reported that “a sophisticated group of cybercrimi- helicopters. interiors of hollow- nals, known as the Maze group, gained unauthorized access to our network and core PW4000 fan deployed a ransomware attack.” IAI Aviation Group secured a DHL Inter blades. When the ST Engineering does not believe that IT systems beyond VT San Antonio national contract to convert another three process was intro- in the wider group were also breached, but it is taking steps to strengthen its Boeing 767-300s to cargo; the deal in- duced, Pratt followed overall cybersecurity architecture nonetheless. cludes an option. “standard nonde- The company did not reveal what data may have been compromised, but structive testing in- Onwe acknowledged the need “to ensure that the data we are entrusted with Jet Support Services (JSSI) was select- dustry practice” and remains safe and secure.” ed by Jetcraft as a partner to establish categorized it as “new a six-month post-purchase maintenance and emerging,” mean- Taby Launches ATR Support ing it could be used support package for its customers; the Sweden’s Taby Air Maintenance (TAM) welcomed its first ATR 72 into work- while formal training shops at Orebro Airport. TAM will offer a full range of support for the ATR 72 program will cover engines, airframes and requirements were family of regional airliners, along with existing support for Saab 340s and 2000s. APUs; operators can enroll for full cover- being developed. But The MRO is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the popular turbo- age after six months. Pratt did not develop prop. Par Gulle, TAM’s managing director, predicts solid and increasing future a formal, extensive Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace was demand for ATR maintenance in Northern Europe and believes the ATR family training program un- TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST will be the leading regional airline aircraft of the future. selected by Boeing to provide sustain- til after the United engine failure. was a small indication at the location A 2018 PW4000 fan-blade Looking further into the future, Gulle says cargo conversions of ATRs by ment and maintenance engineering for five From the outset of the inspec- of the origin of the crack,” the NTSB TAM also are possible. “We are evaluating that. With the know-how we have fracture triggered a fleet-wide P-8As on order by Norway; the agreement tion program to the time the United says. “Review of the records from inspection effort. from doing numerous Saab 340 cargo conversions, I’d say a cargo conversion Airlines fractured fan blade was in- the 2015 TAI shows that there was a package for the ATR would be a natural next step after the Saab 340.” includes mechanic training, local parts distribution and a new service support center. spected and up to the time of the in- larger indication in the same area. At ing,” the NTSB says. Fan blade frag- cident, Pratt “did not have a defined the time of each TAI, the inspectors ments also caused two “small punc- Garuda’s Troubles Spread to MRO RUAG extended a contract with Safran to training and certification regimen for attributed the indication to a defect tures” in the right-side fuselage. GMF Aeroasia posted a $31 million loss for the first three months of the year, maintain fuel control units for Makila-pow- the TAI inspectors” at the company’s in the paint that was used during the Soon after the incident, Pratt “re- compared with a $3 million profit in the prior-year period. Hit by COVID-19 ered Super Puma helicopters through 2021. East Hartford, Connecticut, overhaul TAI process and allowed the blade to ported that they had developed a cur- disruption to its airline customers, especially former parent Garuda Indonesia, facility, the NTSB says. continue the overhaul process and be riculum for TAI initial and recurrent the listed Indonesian maintenance company saw revenues fall and its cash de- Triumph Systems & Support extended Instead, the technicians were given returned to service.” training,” the NTSB says. It also re - cline to just $3 million, from $30 million at the start of the year. its deal with a North America-based inde- about 40 hr. of on-the-job training. By The 40.5-in., No. 11 fan blade frac- viewed records for all 9,600 PW4000 The result is surprising given that in March, near the end of the quarter, the pendent MRO facility for repair and over- contrast, eddy current and ultrasonic tured across the airfoil about 1.44 in. 112-in.-dia. fan blades that had been company reported higher demand from third-party customers because some inspection training programs include above its fairing at the leading edge previously inspected. A March 2019 airlines had been unable to land in China for scheduled maintenance. haul of CFM56, CF34 and CF6 engine ac- 40 hr. of classroom learning and at and slightly below the surface of the FAA airworthiness directive man- However, this was not sufficient to offset the huge dip in business from its cessories out of Grand Prairie, Texas, and least 1,200 hr. of practical experience, fairing at the trailing edge, the NTSB dated recurring inspections for all main customer, which accounts for almost 90% of GMF’s sales. Wellington, Kansas, for five more years. c GMF’s weak finances have pushed it into breach of some financial covenants, the NTSB says. says. “Laboratory examination of in-service blades. forcing it to request a waiver from creditors and restructuring of its bank loans.c Contracts Source: SpeedNews The NTSB found that the lack of fan blade No. 11 revealed a low cycle —Sean Broderick

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For more information, visit aviationweek.com/forecasts or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 Available for: or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 COMMERCIAL MILITARY BUSINESS HELICOPTER DISCOVER O Safety & Regulatory ANALYZE PLAN FORECAST ARSA UPDATE The Grandness of Nothing 2021 Fleet & MRO Forecasts ON MAY 27, THE WORLD WATCHED maintenance. The element is part of Accepting that few are at their best as two American astronauts waited for “the Dirty Dozen,” the short list of key under pressure, consider how to miti- Coming Soon liftoff from Cape Canaveral. factors affecting human performance, gate its effects on performance: prior- Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley were so it is given special attention. itize and coordinate. Both individuals set to ride the SpaceX Crew Dragon A key aspect of that session was and organizations should establish— capsule into orbit and rendezvous challenging the assertion that anyone and consistently review—mandatory with the International Space Station can “work best under pressure.” We’ve work standards and the resources (ISS). The Falcon 9 reusable launch all had friends or colleagues who insist required to meet those outcomes. vehicle was taking on liquid oxygen they always come through “better” In pursuit of those goals, all persons fuel, the president and vice president when expectations, time constraints, must focus on their roles (“stay in of the U.S. were standing by and resource limitations or other “human” your lane”) and communicate status millions of viewers were watching. factors place the highest strain on and needs according to established After weeks of anticipation and their ability to meet outcomes. plans and procedures. media buildup, the day had arrived. Is that true? Maybe, if you are con- Bring those mitigations back to the Everyone watching, including my ditioned to perform that way as the launchpad and the “no-go” decision Predictive Intelligence family and me, was being reminded NASA team is, but in reality, most of made on May 27. The engineers and constantly about the importance us don’t reach those heights. technicians relied on specific safe- of the moment: The first launch of Higher states of “arousal”—the ty standards, communicated issues to Drive Results American astronauts on an American measurement used by psychologists and—most important—relied on each rocket from American soil since the Robert Yerkes and John Dillingham other to critically adhere to the re- retirement of the space shuttle pro- Dodson in 1908—will produce quirements of a successful launch. If gram in 2011. heightened attention and care and the weather team says no, the mission Then, nothing happened. improve performance results up is scrubbed—no matter the external Actually, that’s not true: Something to a point. In particular, the Yerkes- pressures produced by the president, Fleet & MRO Forecast very important happened . . . that re- Dodson “Law” suggests that for sim- the media and the world. With Aviation Week Network’s , gain a sulted in nothing happening. ple tasks depending on reflexes or So we all had to wait. Air Force One 10-year outlook to minimize risk and maximize revenue. Seventeen minutes before the instinct (running from imminent dan- flew back to Washington, the media scheduled 4:33 p.m. EDT launch, ger, perhaps), execution improves as packed its cameras, viewers around • Fleets, trends, and projections controllers scrubbed the mission. arousal mounts. the world returned to other program- Though the weather, which had been There are few simple tasks in mod- ming, and Bob and Doug boarded • Predictive view of market share questionable all day, was clearing, all ern life, let alone in aviation mainte- their vehicle for a very earthbound • MRO future demand required minimums would not be met nance. For difficult activities, there ride home. Everyone came back to do by T-0 seconds. The astronauts and are points of pressure beyond which it again on May 30. At 3:22 p.m., the their rocket were staying put. performance degrades. Maintenance commercially built rocket and crew “People say to me, ‘With all of the of aircraft requires careful attention, capsule were successfully piloted into Take your business to the attention of the world on this launch, effective working memory and clear orbit and on course for rendezvous next level. with all of the VIPs coming, are you go- decision-making. Put simply: A little with the ISS. ing to feel pressure on this launch?’” pressure keeps you focused; a lot The launch was a rousing success, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine turns you into a mess. a grand event at the end of May. The For more information, visit recalled for the media. “If we are not “It might surprise you that nobody reason why? Because a few days ear- ready to go, we simply do not go. I performs better under pressure,” ex- lier . . . something even grander hap- aviationweek.com/forecasts am proud, so proud, of our teams plains the Institute for Human Health pened: nothing. c or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 working together to make the right and Potential, going beyond Yerkes Available for: or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 decision in this particular case.” and Dodson by focusing entirely on Brett Levanto is vice president of oper During the first round of sessions higher functions. “Regardless of the ations of Obadal, Filler, MacLeod & COMMERCIAL for ARSA’s Human Factors training task, pressure diminishes our judg- Klein, PLC and provides strategic and MILITARY series, I trained on the impact of ment, decision-making, attention and logistical support for the Aeronautical BUSINESS pressure on performance in aviation performance.” Repair Station Association. HELICOPTER

AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO7 O Airline Insight WESTJET WestJet Airlines COO Jeff Martin talks with Lee Ann Shay about how the Canadian carrier has weathered COVID-19, hail and the 737 MAX grounding.

How have you handled crisis we knew, like everyone else, that liquid- management? ity was going to be ultra important. And every dime that we didn’t spend We had decided pre-COVID that we on fuel was going into the bank. were going to invest in our OCC (opera- going to do it in a better state than we tions control center) and set up an ICC How have the OCC and ICC worked? did before from an operations efficiency (incident command center) for business standpoint. We were the No. 1 airline continuity. That’s something that a lot of The operations control center has for on-time performance for April and airlines talk about but few ever model: many names throughout the airline May for North America. Could we run the airline remotely if we industry. It’s where dispatch resides. For May alone, we ran 98.1% on-time. had to? So fortunately, we had gotten The model here is that the OCC man- And even though the network is smaller, ahead of this, and our previous CIO ages day-of operations. Embedded in that tells me the teams are still execut- Craig Maccubbin had placed the whole the OCC is a standalone ICC, which is ing to the strategies and theories that airline on Microsoft Teams, which was there for emergency command or busi- we put in place. So the new facility will fortuitous. As our new OCC and ICC ness disruption. So the two sit side-by- only make that even better as we start were nearing completion, we saw what side. The goal is that the OCC will run bringing our schedule back. Guests was happening in Asia, so we activated day-of, and if at any point the OCC is want an airline that’s on time. And that our ICC probably earlier than others. faced with a lot of challenges, like in the usually mirrors itself in high Net Pro- Our business continuity meetings case of COVID, we’d bring the day-of moter Scores (NPS), which we’ve seen involved all of the major airline stake- into the ICC. a huge increase in this year. Changes to holders, led by myself. What would we Since COVID, we quite honestly man- Net Promoter Scores almost identically need to do if the airlines should come aged the airline from there. We started parallel on-time performance. down to a much smaller size? What out having two calls a day that included grew out of that, thankfully, was our myself, the CEO and all of the executive Speaking of the fleet, what’s parked, early engagement in procuring per- leadership team. It was a readout that and what models are coming back? sonal protection equipment (PPE) for would consist of 30 sec. to 2 min. from our employees and guests. And then we every business entity on: How are you Instead of saying what models are started setting protocols in place, in ad- functioning today? What do you need coming back, we look at what markets vance of COVID, and then the waves to make sure that the airline can oper- are coming back. Given our network, started to occur. ate? Are you ready to take us into the the Q400s are very important for us. Then the available seat-mile reduc- next phase? We started on March 13 Those 47 aircraft feed our major hubs tions started to hit like they did every- and kept that cadence for almost 60 and tie into the 737s and 787s. So we’re where else, and we soft-landed the air- days. And as we successfully brought slowly bringing back, proportionately, line. Our quick reaction allowed us to the airline down, parked the aircraft the fleet, and it will change monthly put the airline in a stabilized fashion and stabilized the network to where based on where we’re finding the de- probably right on target of where we we are now, we went to once a day and mand. It’s safe to say we’re flying the hoped it would be. now we’re down to twice a week. It was 787s only transcontinental right now so important to be talking twice a day while we await relief from border con- How did you handle parking across the entire enterprise, because trols. Pre-COVID, I can tell you we the aircraft? it’s not just operations; it was the net- were extremely pleased with the 787s. work, it was commercial, it was sales, They have exceeded our analysis and My ops planning team did a phenom- it was marketing. It gave us the ability predictions of margins, and our predic- enal job as we parked every airplane to have the airline on the same page. tions for reliability and our predictions they managed it so that we didn’t have While we were doing this remotely, for guest satisfaction and NPS. And I to relocate the aircraft again. So we the new OCC-ICC construction was have to attribute that to the really good knew when that airplane landed, we complete. So we moved into the brand- work that went into the entry-into- were going into our COVID stabiliza- new OCC ICC on June 1. Although service teams. tion mode: The aircraft would not have most of us are still working remotely We took a unique approach. When to be relocated. That saved us millions and working on Microsoft Teams, we you procure an asset of that size, you of dollars of fuel. I have to hand huge do now have an industry-leading, phe- need to make sure that your team is accolades to the fleet-planning team nomenal facility. So that’s in place for really ready to deploy it. That was a in combination with the network and us when we start to bring the network huge step for us, because even though commercial team to do that. Because back. Because of this investment, we’re we had the 767, we were increasing the

MRO8 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Airline Insight WESTJET

level of service that we were going to Canadians are the hardest-working Did the ownership change of WestJet introduce with a business class prior to people in the world, and they’re very change your aftermarket strategy? WestJet Airlines our previous premium offerings. Before resilient. They have figured out how to we started revenue service, we made de-ice probably better than anyone in I don’t think it has changed our after- COO Jeff Martin talks with Lee Ann Shay about how the Canadian practice flights. We did practice pushes the world. They figured out how to keep market strategy. The transition went carrier has weathered COVID-19, hail and the 737 MAX grounding. and turns because the aircraft has in- a fleet warm. But we’ve also learned really well because we had been dustry-leading technology. We want to here in Calgary that we’re highly prone working in advance of legal close, so How have you handled crisis we knew, like everyone else, that liquid- know how to interface with that. to hail, especially at this time of year. we were comfortable with Onex and management? ity was going to be ultra important. When we went into that first rev- So when we knew that we were going the managing directors and the team. And every dime that we didn’t spend enue flight, our WestJetters—from to park roughly 150 of the 181 aircraft, What we found was another team of We had decided pre-COVID that we on fuel was going into the bank. inflight to maintenance to tech ops to the team designed the protection for partners who are analytically astute were going to invest in our OCC (opera- going to do it in a better state than we ground ops—were comfortable with the spoilers, which are highly suscep- and who know the industry well. tions control center) and set up an ICC How have the OCC and ICC worked? did before from an operations efficiency the aircraft. We far exceeded our ex- tible to hail on the 737 fleet. They’re letting us run the airline. We (incident command center) for business standpoint. We were the No. 1 airline pectations for the 787. Boeing said our They designed and cut the protec- understand the lines—they are the continuity. That’s something that a lot of The operations control center has for on-time performance for April and entry into service was one of the best tion from hockey puck boards—at- owners—but we operate the airline airlines talk about but few ever model: many names throughout the airline May for North America. it had seen. tached to the top of every spoiler and we make the strategic decisions. Could we run the airline remotely if we industry. It’s where dispatch resides. For May alone, we ran 98.1% on-time. My tech ops team talked to Boeing across the entire fleet. On June 13, we But that partnership is a testament had to? So fortunately, we had gotten The model here is that the OCC man- And even though the network is smaller, and every 787 operator that looked sim- had one of the worst hailstorms that to how well we landed in COVID and ahead of this, and our previous CIO ages day-of operations. Embedded in that tells me the teams are still execut- ilar to WestJet. So we knew the chal- anyone can recall. The hockey puck how quickly we made the decisions Craig Maccubbin had placed the whole the OCC is a standalone ICC, which is ing to the strategies and theories that lenges. We knew the uniqueness of the boards on the 737 spoilers resulted we did around liquidity, the fleet, airline on Microsoft Teams, which was there for emergency command or busi- we put in place. So the new facility will aircraft. We knew the things that we in zero damage. Other aircraft had the network. It shows that Onex and fortuitous. As our new OCC and ICC ness disruption. So the two sit side-by- only make that even better as we start needed to do to make sure the reliabil- some surface damage. The puck board the leadership team were very much were nearing completion, we saw what side. The goal is that the OCC will run bringing our schedule back. Guests ity was high. We have 10 firm orders. shows how creative this tech ops team in synch. c was happening in Asia, so we activated day-of, and if at any point the OCC is want an airline that’s on time. And that can be. They did it with little fanfare our ICC probably earlier than others. faced with a lot of challenges, like in the usually mirrors itself in high Net Pro- How did WestJet come up with the and quite honestly protected the Digital Extra Read the extended Our business continuity meetings case of COVID, we’d bring the day-of moter Scores (NPS), which we’ve seen puck-board idea to protect aircraft whole 737 fleet that was parked here inter view:AviationWeek.com/ involved all of the major airline stake- into the ICC. a huge increase in this year. Changes to from summer hailstorms? by doing this. JeffMartinWestJet holders, led by myself. What would we Since COVID, we quite honestly man- Net Promoter Scores almost identically need to do if the airlines should come aged the airline from there. We started parallel on-time performance. down to a much smaller size? What out having two calls a day that included grew out of that, thankfully, was our myself, the CEO and all of the executive Speaking of the fleet, what’s parked, early engagement in procuring per- leadership team. It was a readout that and what models are coming back? sonal protection equipment (PPE) for would consist of 30 sec. to 2 min. from our employees and guests. And then we every business entity on: How are you Instead of saying what models are started setting protocols in place, in ad- functioning today? What do you need coming back, we look at what markets vance of COVID, and then the waves to make sure that the airline can oper- are coming back. Given our network, started to occur. ate? Are you ready to take us into the the Q400s are very important for us. Then the available seat-mile reduc- next phase? We started on March 13 Those 47 aircraft feed our major hubs Navigate the Road to Recovery with Confi dence tions started to hit like they did every- and kept that cadence for almost 60 and tie into the 737s and 787s. So we’re where else, and we soft-landed the air- days. And as we successfully brought slowly bringing back, proportionately, The only solution dedicated to commercial aftermarket professionals, MRO Prospector contains line. Our quick reaction allowed us to the airline down, parked the aircraft the fleet, and it will change monthly accurate and reliable MRO data and intelligence so you can ﬁ nd new opportunities. put the airline in a stabilized fashion and stabilized the network to where based on where we’re finding the de- probably right on target of where we we are now, we went to once a day and mand. It’s safe to say we’re flying the hoped it would be. now we’re down to twice a week. It was 787s only transcontinental right now so important to be talking twice a day while we await relief from border con- How did you handle parking across the entire enterprise, because trols. Pre-COVID, I can tell you we the aircraft? it’s not just operations; it was the net- were extremely pleased with the 787s. work, it was commercial, it was sales, They have exceeded our analysis and My ops planning team did a phenom- it was marketing. It gave us the ability predictions of margins, and our predic- Details on thousands Discover maintenance Research operator’s ﬂ eets enal job as we parked every airplane to have the airline on the same page. tions for reliability and our predictions of contracts covering opportunities, including by tail number, including they managed it so that we didn’t have While we were doing this remotely, for guest satisfaction and NPS. And I 37,000 aircraft and component repairs by age, hours, cycles and 80,000 engines. ATA Chapter. lease status. to relocate the aircraft again. So we the new OCC-ICC construction was have to attribute that to the really good knew when that airplane landed, we complete. So we moved into the brand- work that went into the entry-into- were going into our COVID stabiliza- new OCC ICC on June 1. Although service teams. tion mode: The aircraft would not have most of us are still working remotely We took a unique approach. When Visit aviationweek.com/MROP to schedule your demo. to be relocated. That saved us millions and working on Microsoft Teams, we you procure an asset of that size, you of dollars of fuel. I have to hand huge do now have an industry-leading, phe- need to make sure that your team is Or call: accolades to the fleet-planning team nomenal facility. So that’s in place for really ready to deploy it. That was a Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353, or in combination with the network and us when we start to bring the network huge step for us, because even though Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 commercial team to do that. Because back. Because of this investment, we’re we had the 767, we were increasing the

MRO8 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO9 O Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul The Aftermarket’s Recovery Building scenarios around what recovery means Lindsay Bjerregaard and Lee Ann Shay Chicago and James Pozzi London

he aviation aftermarket is starting to rebound, but it will be anything but a smooth, steady climb upward. The un- T even path is sure to include some jagged spikes that will hurt. While conventional wisdom predicted that the Asia-Pacific market would recover first because it was the firsta ffected by the COVID-19 pandemic, now even that does not seem clear.

On June 24, Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance Engineering the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Co. (Gameco) broke ground on new $90 million component Act, which comes with restrictions on layoffs, is set to expire. and composite repair centers that are planned to open in 2022 The recovery also needs business travelers, who will require to help it further expand its already extensive capabilities. In both corporate clearance and increased flight frequencies to contrast, the following day Qantas announced that it is cut- resume road-warrior travel; when that will happen is unclear, ting 20% of its workforce and does not plan to resume most given current restrictions on international travel. What will international flying before July 2021. the travel season be like in the Northern Hemisphere in sum- What is clear is that a few markers will heavily influence the mer 2021, when airlines are hopeful that travel demand will path forward—a big one is coming in September, when many surge for the vacation season? And of course, the big question airlines will adjust their flight schedules based on customer mark is the timing of an effective novel corona virus vaccine, demand and when payroll support funding provided through which would restore confidence in travel.

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starting to pick up, “especially on the engine side,” he says. However, do not expect overall MRO recovery to be rapid. Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Co. (HAECO) expects the The Aftermarket’s Recovery MRO business to “come back strong and fully recover in the next two to three years,” says CEO Frank Walschot. Building scenarios around what recovery means In other words: Plan for the worst, but hope for the best. WR W AR Lindsay Bjerregaard and Lee Ann Shay Chicago and James Pozzi London Global passenger airlines grounded their fl eets in response to a historic drop in demand but are steadily resuming fl ight schedules, with domestic and short-haul fl ights returning OPTIMISTIC faster. Airlines are adjusting to projected new (and lower) he aviation aftermarket is starting to rebound, but it will >Domestic and limited international demand forecasts . These, coupled with airlines in fi nancial di culty that may not resume operations, means thousands be anything but a smooth, steady climb upward. The un- tra c start to recover in 2020, even path is sure to include some jagged spikes that will of aircraft most likely won’t return to service—with planned T falling 50% year over year retirements of older aircraft accelerating, resulting in a hurt. While conventional wisdom predicted that the Asia-Pacific >MRO decline steadies in 2020 and younger fl eet. market would recover first because it was the firsta ffected by the volume climbs as demand recovers, Oliver Wyman expects more than 2,600 aircraft to be re- COVID-19 pandemic, now even that does not seem clear. with full recovery in 2022 tired in the next year, compared to 550-750 aircraft annually over the last fi ve years. This, along with lower aircraft utilization, could eliminate 53% of the $91.2 billion MRO NEUTRAL market in 2020 . >Airline demand recovery sputters Based on “an extreme example, where every aircraft over into 2021, particularly on the the age of 20 is retired (8,272 units), the average fl eet age international side drops to 8.5 years from 10.8 today,” a Je£ eries report predicts. If this were to happen, Je£ eries expects a 14% decline >MRO demand lags and recovers in the addressable aftermarket by 2023. slowly along with the tra c ramp-up, Between May 28 -June 12, Aviation Week Fleet Discovery reaching 2019 levels in 2023-24 data shows that 2,085 aircraft returned to in-service status and 656 moved out of semi-active parked reserve status, PESSIMISTIC fl ying 1-2 days per week. Meanwhile, 51 aircraft were retired >The pandemic endures, disrupting during this period and aircraft in storage climbed by 444, global airline networks until well indicating that airlines are further defi ning their fl eets. As into 2021 or 2022 of June 12, 44% of the fl eet was in service, the vast majority of which are narrowbody aircraft . Of the parked fl eet, 63% >MRO sees years of slow growth, is leased, according to Fleet Discovery data. with full recovery not achievable The oversupply of passenger aircraft is a£ ecting values. until 2025 On average, narrowbody prices have declined 10-20%, and widebodies have dropped 15-30%, says Adam Pilarski, senior vice president at Avitas, who emphasizes that there can be big di£ erences depending on variables such as aircraft age, type and engines. Freighter aircraft prices have remained

SEN IIN SEIES stable, he says. Je£ erson Ding, team leader for aircraft technical asset management at lessor Dragon Aviation Capital in Singapore, says he has heard of sale-and-leaseback transactions at prices 30-40% lower than prepandemic rates, as airlines grabbed whatever cash they could. “In the longer term, different classes of assets will come back to normal levels faster than On June 24, Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance Engineering the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Ascent Aviation Services has more than 400 aircraft others,” he says. “For instance, the [Airbus] A321 will regain Co. (Gameco) broke ground on new $90 million component Act, which comes with restrictions on layoffs, is set to expire. parked at its center in Marana, Arizona, and more at its value and remain constant due to its suitability to a variety of and composite repair centers that are planned to open in 2022 The recovery also needs business travelers, who will require Tucson facility. markets, including the passenger-to-freighter market.” to help it further expand its already extensive capabilities. In both corporate clearance and increased flight frequencies to The good news is that the industry appears to be at or While the cargo market has been a bright spot, do not contrast, the following day Qantas announced that it is cut- resume road-warrior travel; when that will happen is unclear, near the bottom of the market, with aftermarket suppliers expect a dip in aircraft prices to lead to a surge in cargo- ting 20% of its workforce and does not plan to resume most given current restrictions on international travel. What will starting to see an uptick in lower cost components, for conversion demand. Air Transport Services Group (ATSG) international flying before July 2021. the travel season be like in the Northern Hemisphere in sum- example. “May was one of the toughest months that we is “always in the market looking for aircraft,” Chief Financial What is clear is that a few markers will heavily influence the mer 2021, when airlines are hopeful that travel demand will saw because repair activity that had already started was O cer Quint Turner says, but the aircraft purchase price path forward—a big one is coming in September, when many surge for the vacation season? And of course, the big question ﬁ nishing, and there weren’t any new inductions involving has less of an impact in conversion demand because the airlines will adjust their flight schedules based on customer mark is the timing of an effective novel corona virus vaccine, engine or component repair,” says Tommy Hughes, CEO feedstock is “less than half the overall cost” of a passen- demand and when payroll support funding provided through which would restore confidence in travel. of VAS Aero Services. By the end of May, business was ger-to-freighter aircraft conversion, he says. In early June,

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ATSG announced an agreement to lease 12 additional Boeing 767-300 converted freighters to Amazon.com Services for Days NarrowbodyDays on Days andin Widebody Fleets Status Snapshot 10 years. One was already delivered, and the other 11 will be Flying the Ground Storage delivered in 2021. Israel Aerospace Industries completes the conversions in about 100 days, says Turner. 400,000 400,000

350,000 MRO RECOVERY 350,000 “Typically, airframe MRO has been more insulated from 300,000 300,000 the downturns we’ve seen in the past,” compared to engines 250,000 250,000 and component MRO, “but of course we’re in new territory 200,000 200,000 here,” says Greg Colgan, CEO of MRO Holdings. “We saw 150,000 150,000 our 2020 contracted work drop by the end of March by almost 80% for the end of year” from its projections just a 100,000 100,000 month before, he says. 50,000 50,000 MRO Holdings, which operates Aeroman, Flightstar, 0 0 TechOps MX and North State, has “recovered and stabi- January February March April May June January February March April May June lized to some extent for the third quarter,” but it is inter- acting with customers frequently as they develop different 35,000 80,000 scenarios for their summer 2021 schedules,” Colgan says. “Because airframe MRO requires careful planning with 30,000 70,000 60,000 six- and 12-month schedules, it can have a big impact on 25,000 third-quarter/fourth-quarter 2020 workloads for them to 50,000 20,000 have fleets ready by summer 2021.” 40,000 Instead of the 8.5 million maintenance work-hours it was 15,000 planning for in pre-COVID-19 2020, MRO Holdings now anti- 30,000 10,000 cipates logging 5-6 million. Because the organization was 20,000 running its operation and cost structure for 8.5 million hr. 5000 10,000 when the pandemic started, “We were essentially pushing 0 0 the top speed of a sports car one minute and then testing January February March April May June January February March April May June braking distance the next minute,” says Colgan. The abrupt braking forced it to reexamine processes and procedures, which Colgan thinks will be beneficial. These graphs, based on Aviation Week Fleet Discovery ATS CEO Matt Yerbic thinks its business bottomed out ADS-B tracking data, provide a holistic view of the during May and June, but he expects softness to remain status of each these four aircraft fleets, which include through the rest of the year. ATS received a CARES grant pre-service, in-service, parked reserve, parked and to help with costs through Sept. 30, and does not anticipate stored aircraft. returning to 2019 business volumes until 2022. However, like MRO Holdings, ATS examined its operation new lines of A330 heavy maintenance services at the new when the pandemic struck and has identified opportunities Beijing Daxing International Airport; and new component to “reduce costs and drive efficiencies,” Yerbic says, initia- and composite shops targeted for a 2022 opening. tives he expects to announce in the third quarter. ATS is “Our financial performance for 2020 and 2021 is expected operating five maintenance lines now and expects to add to be less than 2019 and below the original plan,” Marx says. single lines in June, July and August, bringing the total to Those were viewed as transition years as the new capa- eight—all located in Everett, Washington. bilities and shops came online. But with the pandemic, “it’s Gameco did not lay off any staff but—like many others— time to restructure and align the organization,” he explains, cut costs, postponed hiring and leaned-out processes. “We al- including implementing change more rapidly. ways had a big number of cargo airline customers, and their Ascent Aviation Services is maintaining more than 400 demand for maintenance is strong. China Southern allowed parked aircraft at two airports in the Tucson, Arizona, area us to pull forward some maintenance on grounded aircraft, and can tear down up to 15 per month. Short-term storage so our heavy maintenance is now close to plan,” says Norbert accounts for about 65% of the total, but “we are transition- Marx, Gameco’s CEO and general manager. China’s domestic ing some to long-term storage as this crisis continues,” says air travel market is “showing its strength in recovery,” so the Scott Butler, chief commercial officer of Ascent. While rec- company’s line maintenance business is recovering in tan- lamation inquiries “have slowed down a bit, the aircraft we dem. Marx says work related to lease returns, maintenance are getting requests for are the ‘blue chip’ aircraft: younger on grounded aircraft, and cabin solutions for disinfecting A320s, 737NGs, 777s, 767s and A330s,” he says. He thinks and passenger separation are also picking up. the retirement of older, less-efficient aircraft is partly driven Gameco is adding several new capabilities as well: the by “a renewed focus on sustainability in the aviation sector.” start of its first 737-800 Boeing converted freighter on June Joramco, the Jordanian MRO, is seeing a strong demand 16; CAAC Part 145 approval for the first Comac aircraft, the for end-of-lease checks and parking service, which Chief ARJ21 which soon will enter China Southern’s fleet; three Commercial Officer Fraser Currie thinks will last another

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ATSG announced an agreement to lease 12 additional Boeing ber of parts arriving at our facilities for repair works has 767-300 converted freighters to Amazon.com Services for Days NarrowbodyDays on Days andin Widebody Fleets Status Snapshot increased the last 20 days between 120-200%, depending 10 years. One was already delivered, and the other 11 will be Flying the Ground Storage on location, from the trough,” says Brian Olsen, president delivered in 2021. Israel Aerospace Industries completes the of component and engineering solutions at ATS. PMA sales conversions in about 100 days, says Turner. 400,000 400,000 volumes are still down, but “airline customers have indicated this will improve in July,” he says. 350,000 MRO RECOVERY 350,000 “In general, pre-COVID-19, what Naasco found is anyone “Typically, airframe MRO has been more insulated from 300,000 300,000 that maintains responsibility for their own [profit-and-loss the downturns we’ve seen in the past,” compared to engines 250,000 250,000 statements] aggressively looked for ways to lower the opera- and component MRO, “but of course we’re in new territory 200,000 200,000 tional costs while improving reliability,” says Michael Leslie, here,” says Greg Colgan, CEO of MRO Holdings. “We saw CEO of component-repair specialist Naasco. “As the national 150,000 150,000 our 2020 contracted work drop by the end of March by al- and international markets begin to open back up, Naasco most 80% for the end of year” from its projections just a 100,000 100,000 has seen similar patterns.” month before, he says. 50,000 50,000 On the USM front, the million-dollar question is what will MRO Holdings, which operates Aeroman, Flightstar, 0 0 hit the market, and when. “Prices will definitely be impacted TechOps MX and North State, has “recovered and stabi- January February March April May June January February March April May June but the question everyone has is ‘what is the market value of a lized to some extent for the third quarter,” but it is inter- 737-800 in 6-12 months?’ It’s all based on supply and demand,” acting with customers frequently as they develop different says Tommy Hughes of VAS. There’s a bit of wait-and-see now 35,000 80,000 scenarios for their summer 2021 schedules,” Colgan says. because owners want to maximize the value of parts from a “Because airframe MRO requires careful planning with 30,000 70,000 teardown, so when to proceed with the teardown to maximize 60,000 six- and 12-month schedules, it can have a big impact on 25,000 value is a key question for industry players. third-quarter/fourth-quarter 2020 workloads for them to 50,000 Teardown capacity is another issue. “You could have 20,000 have fleets ready by summer 2021.” 40,000 5,000 aircraft retire, but how many aircraft can be disman- Instead of the 8.5 million maintenance work-hours it was 15,000 tled in the course of 12 months?” asks Hughes. planning for in pre-COVID-19 2020, MRO Holdings now anti- 30,000 Kellstrom Aerospace predicts that supply of USM will 10,000 cipates logging 5-6 million. Because the organization was 20,000 exceed demand for a while—with the initial surplus coming running its operation and cost structure for 8.5 million hr. 5000 10,000 from widebody aircraft, says David Greenwell, vice presi- when the pandemic started, “We were essentially pushing 0 0 dent for sales and marketing. This could help cargo opera- the top speed of a sports car one minute and then testing January February March April May June January February March April May June tors that fly widebodies. braking distance the next minute,” says Colgan. The abrupt While Kellstrom has not noticed a threshold for parts braking forced it to reexamine processes and procedures, price sales, it has noticed “that time for approval of purchase which Colgan thinks will be beneficial. These graphs, based on Aviation Week Fleet Discovery Days Days on Days in orders has increased as most airlines or MROs have added Flying the Ground Storage ATS CEO Matt Yerbic thinks its business bottomed out ADS-B tracking data, provide a holistic view of the additional sign-off requirements on inventory procurement,” status of each these four aircraft fleets, which include during May and June, but he expects softness to remain Source: Aviation Week Fleet Discovery unless it’s for AOG or immediate use, says Greenwell. through the rest of the year. ATS received a CARES grant pre-service, in-service, parked reserve, parked and 400,000 “We see material400,000 costs for airframe material decreas- stored aircraft. to help with costs through Sept. 30, and does not anticipate For350,000 more information about Fleet Discovery and ing but do not350,000 anticipate this happening with key USM for returning to 2019 business volumes until 2022. other300,000 Aviation Week Network data products, go to many engines,”300,000 he adds. This parallels demand for green- However, like MRO Holdings, ATS examined its operation new lines of A330 heavy maintenance services at the new time engines, particularly for popular narrowbody engines pgs.aviationweek.com/FleetDataServices250,000 250,000 when the pandemic struck and has identified opportunities Beijing Daxing International Airport; and new component such as the CFM56-5B and -7B, as well as the V2500-A5. He to “reduce costs and drive efficiencies,” Yerbic says, initia- and composite shops targeted for a 2022 opening. 200,000 expects strong200,000 demand for those green-time engines into tives he expects to announce in the third quarter. ATS is “Our financial performance for 2020 and 2021 is expected 12 months.150,000 He does not “anticipate a significant change to 2021, which will150,000 decrease demand for engine shop visits. operating five maintenance lines now and expects to add to be less than 2019 and below the original plan,” Marx says. annual volumes,100,000 but we do see a change in the seasonal pro- 100,000 single lines in June, July and August, bringing the total to Those were viewed as transition years as the new capa- file of when50,000 checks come to us.” That’s because with many ENGINE POWER50,000 eight—all located in Everett, Washington. bilities and shops came online. But with the pandemic, “it’s airlines “taking0 advantage of extended MPD (maintenance OEMs and independent0 MROs are seeing a slowdown in Gameco did not lay off any staff but—like many others— time to restructure and align the organization,” he explains, planning document)January tasksFebruary there isMarch a slight shiftApril in theMay sea- Juneengine inductions butJanuary increasedFebruary requestsMarch for engineApril presMay- June cut costs, postponed hiring and leaned-out processes. “We al- including implementing change more rapidly. sonality, with some summer work being pushed to winter ervation support and maintenance deferrals. Customers are ways had a big number of cargo airline customers, and their Ascent Aviation Services is maintaining more than 400 and vice versa,” says Currie. seeking flexibility. 80,000 demand for maintenance is strong. China Southern allowed parked aircraft at two airports in the Tucson, Arizona, area Could 35,000the shifting maintenance tasks lead to a bottleneck? MTU is seeing “a move away from the traditional plan- us to pull forward some maintenance on grounded aircraft, and can tear down up to 15 per month. Short-term storage Colgan30,000 says: “My outlier concern right now is around ning, with fixed70,000 maintenance intervals, to more custom- 60,000 so our heavy maintenance is now close to plan,” says Norbert accounts for about 65% of the total, but “we are transition- airframe25,000 capacity in 2021 because airlines delaying main- ized and individually tailored solutions,” says Martin Friis- Marx, Gameco’s CEO and general manager. China’s domestic ing some to long-term storage as this crisis continues,” says tenance now could create a surge later, even with the fore- Petersen, senior50,000 vice president for MRO programs. Some 20,000 air travel market is “showing its strength in recovery,” so the Scott Butler, chief commercial officer of Ascent. While rec- casted aircraft retirements. The size of the surge will clearly customers are40,000 focused on short-term cost savings while company’s line maintenance business is recovering in tan- lamation inquiries “have slowed down a bit, the aircraft we depend on15,000 the pace of recovery, but we believe there is some others focus on long-term strategies. 30,000 dem. Marx says work related to lease returns, maintenance are getting requests for are the ‘blue chip’ aircraft: younger form of surge10,000 coming.” Many are seeking to restructure service contracts to on grounded aircraft, and cabin solutions for disinfecting A320s, 737NGs, 777s, 767s and A330s,” he says. He thinks maximize their20,000 options. and passenger separation are also picking up. the retirement of older, less-efficient aircraft is partly driven PARTS 5000 Pratt & Whitney’s10,000 shops have been upgrading geared Gameco is adding several new capabilities as well: the by “a renewed focus on sustainability in the aviation sector.” Expect parts0 repairs and sales of parts manufacturer ap- turbo fan engines 0to the latest configuration, and the com- start of its first 737-800 Boeing converted freighter on June Joramco, the Jordanian MRO, is seeing a strong demand proval (PMA) partsJanuary andFebruary used serviceableMarch materialApril (USM)May Junepany says that more Januarythan halfFebruary of the fleetMarch is nowApril active. May June 16; CAAC Part 145 approval for the first Comac aircraft, the for end-of-lease checks and parking service, which Chief to increase as airlines seek to conserve cash. ATS has seen While the crisis has given shops time for such upgrades, ARJ21 which soon will enter China Southern’s fleet; three Commercial Officer Fraser Currie thinks will last another a 35% reduction in component repair volume but “the num- it also is forcing faster innovation. For instance, MTU is

MRO12 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO13 O Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul integrating its engine trend-monitoring tool into its engine fleet management software to evolve its predictive maintenance—moving it toward making prescriptive recommendations to help “forecast remaining on-wing time and optimal engine and module removal points,” says Friis-Petersen. HAECO is optimistic about the engine MRO business in the future, as shown by its acquisition in March of Jet Engines Solutions, an engine MRO based in Dallas. The purchase is part of the company’s strategy to grow its engines business and “heralds the entry into the narrowbody engine market, including the CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan platforms,” says Walschot. This acquisition follows the opening of a Global Engine Support location in Amsterdam last year.

MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS: WHAT’S UP? Over the past five years, the commercial aftermarket has been characterized by a steady stream of M&A activity. Viewed by the financial world as a relatively stable industry able to generate strong returns, MRO providers have consistently remained attractive to investors. One of the sources of this financing has been private equity companies, which have consistently poured money into the MRO segment. In the past 18 months, deals such as the Carlyle Group acquiring StandardAero, Greenbriar Equity Group buying into STS Aviation and Ardian’s acquisition of Revima have further highlighted private equity’s affinity for the commercial aftermarket. TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES However, given the impact of COVID-19 on financial mar- The MRO industry was focusing on implementing new tech- kets, any deals will take time to develop. nologies prior to COVID-19, and the crisis has jump-started “In the near-term, M&A largely gets put on hold . . . any efforts at many companies to use technology as a way to M&A deal takes two to tango, with a willing buyer and a willing cope with travel and social distancing restrictions. seller,” says Azad Badakhsh, managing director of Moelis & Providers of augmented reality (AR) and remote- Co. “If you’re a buyer in the current aftermarket business, it’s collaboration platforms have reported a huge increase in very hard for an investment team to come up with a base case demand since March. Librestream says it has experienced to take to their respective board or investment committee." a 745% increase in usage of its Onsight mobile collaboration Airline fleet groundings and deferral of maintenance work platform, and Atheer has seen a 200-300% increase in usage by cash-conscious carriers will put pressure on many MRO of its AR platform by front-line teams, fueled by factors such providers, which could force some deals. “Most companies as travel limitations and a production ramp-up of essential are very loath to sell in the current market environment be- items such as medical equipment and cleaning products. cause it’s very unlikely they’ll be able to come close to maxi- A number of MROs have started experimenting with or mizing value,” Badakhsh says, but he adds that “there are offering services using remote-collaboration technologies. going to be some distressed sellers who won’t have a choice.” A popular use case has been virtual inspections, both for With reduced production rates, airframe OEMs are expect- aircraft and facilities. Lufthansa Technik is offering virtual ed to retain an aftermarket focus, and some analysts believe borescope inspections in the wake of travel restrictions, en- they may look to form more alliances with MROs. Well-backed abling customers to follow engine inspections live from their independents have also been tipped to grow market share locations and to communicate with technicians in real time. through buyouts and investments, and some are viewing the Magnetic MRO recently conducted its first test of a vi- current crisis as an opportunity. It is expected that smaller in- sual aircraft inspection, which consisted of preparing video dependents and family businesses may be swallowed up. This material of both the airframe and interior using a struc- is most likely for those focused on repairs for maintenance- tured file system so potential customers could efficiently intensive legacy aircraft types operating in what will become locate and analyze sections of the aircraft. The MRO says an even more new-generation-focused market. this technology will be used in the future both for situations Despite the uncertainties remaining, and many compa- where travel restrictions are in place and in other cases nies waiting for better indications of what a market recovery when physical inspections are not possible. will look like, some independent companies still see an op- “Challenges the industry is facing can be tackled and portunity. Risto Maeots, CEO of Magnetic MRO, says the solved by the implementation of digital solutions—and [the] company would look at possible acquisitions. “We have to aviation industry should be at the forefront in using innova- come out of this crisis first, but we are also looking at ways tive methods instead of being blinded by the routine,” says to keep growing afterward,” he says. Tonno Toompuu, engineering manager at Magnetic MRO.

MRO14 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul integrating its engine trend-monitoring tool into its engine HAECO is testing laser-ablation cleaning and robotic fleet management software to evolve its predictive mainte- painting, AR glasses and drones for aircraft inspection. nance—moving it toward making prescriptive recommen- Donecle, which specializes in providing automated aircraft dations to help “forecast remaining on-wing time and opti- inspections by drone, says there has been renewed interest mal engine and module removal points,” says Friis-Petersen. in the ability to share inspection data remotely—both from HAECO is optimistic about the engine MRO business existing customers and new prospects. “Many of our recent in the future, as shown by its acquisition in March of Jet discussions have revolved around our system’s ability to im- Engines Solutions, an engine MRO based in Dallas. The pur- Lufthansa Technik o ers a service to enable mediately upload and share inspection data with colleagues or chase is part of the company’s strategy to grow its engines airlines to quickly convert their passenger clients to provide a complete and objective view of an aircraft’s business and “heralds the entry into the narrowbody en- aircraft into auxiliary freighters. structural condition,” says Josselin Bequet, CEO of Donecle. gine market, including the CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney “A second concern is a spike in maintenance work that geared turbofan platforms,” says Walschot. This acquisition has been deferred due to the current shortage,” says Bequet, follows the opening of a Global Engine Support location in noting that some regions already facing skilled labor short- Amsterdam last year. ages had to lay o a portion of their workforce due to the COVID-19 crisis. “Several organizations expect to be under- MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS: WHAT’S UP? sta ed in late 2020/early 2021 and automated drone solu- Over the past five years, the commercial aftermarket has tions will be a force multiplier, both in terms of physically been characterized by a steady stream of M&A activity. conducting inspections but also to analyze inspection data Viewed by the financial world as a relatively stable indus- and issue reports.” try able to generate strong returns, MRO providers have Increased use of data analytics is also predicted. HAECO consistently remained attractive to investors. is developing a “real-time monitoring and big data platform One of the sources of this financing has been private eq- that correlates aircraft sensors and airline data, without uity companies, which have consistently poured money into aircraft modiﬁ cations,” says Walschot, to enable early fault the MRO segment. In the past 18 months, deals such as the detection and predictive maintenance. Carlyle Group acquiring StandardAero, Greenbriar Equity

Group buying into STS Aviation and Ardian’s acquisition of NS ENI LOOING ORWARD Revima have further highlighted private equity’s affinity for Opinions on the recovery’s pace vary, with agreement that the commercial aftermarket. TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES “We should maintain focus on [the] ultimate goal and fi nd the path will be long, with many painful steps along the way. However, given the impact of COVID-19 on financial mar- The MRO industry was focusing on implementing new tech- new ways to work.” Avitas’s Pilarski predicts that airline tra c will not return to kets, any deals will take time to develop. nologies prior to COVID-19, and the crisis has jump-started MRO Holdings, already exploring virtual technology 2019 levels until the end of 2023 or early 2024. He sees global “In the near-term, M&A largely gets put on hold . . . any efforts at many companies to use technology as a way to before the pandemic, used video conferencing on a mobile economic activity picking up in 2021 but thinks there will be M&A deal takes two to tango, with a willing buyer and a willing cope with travel and social distancing restrictions. device to facilitate a regulatory inspection of a facility ex- a deeper disconnect between economic recovery and airline seller,” says Azad Badakhsh, managing director of Moelis & Providers of augmented reality (AR) and remote- pansion at one of its repair stations in April. The virtual tra c due a recession predicted before COVID-19 broke out. Co. “If you’re a buyer in the current aftermarket business, it’s collaboration platforms have reported a huge increase in inspection enabled the regulatory representatives to see If that happens, demand for new aircraft will also drop. very hard for an investment team to come up with a base case demand since March. Librestream says it has experienced everything they would have if they had been on-site, while Other industry analysts’ predictions also paint a gloomy to take to their respective board or investment committee." a 745% increase in usage of its Onsight mobile collaboration providing more digital evidence than they normally would picture for the rest of 2020. Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafi a Airline fleet groundings and deferral of maintenance work platform, and Atheer has seen a 200-300% increase in usage have obtained. has forecast that aircraft services revenue could be up to by cash-conscious carriers will put pressure on many MRO of its AR platform by front-line teams, fueled by factors such On the regulatory side, the FAA released guidance earlier 75% lower in 2020 compared to last year, while consultancy providers, which could force some deals. “Most companies as travel limitations and a production ramp-up of essential this year on using technology such as cameras and video Alixpartners, estimates a drop between 60-65% for this year. are very loath to sell in the current market environment be- items such as medical equipment and cleaning products. conferencing for tasks such as conformity inspections and In the engine segment, the near term will see large rev- cause it’s very unlikely they’ll be able to come close to maxi- A number of MROs have started experimenting with or engineering and ground tests. While the guidance does not enue declines, with consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory mizing value,” Badakhsh says, but he adds that “there are offering services using remote-collaboration technologies. exclude specifi c technologies or products , it does note that predicting that engine MRO demand will fall 60%. going to be some distressed sellers who won’t have a choice.” A popular use case has been virtual inspections, both for video quality should be su cient for the task and provide While pointing to the importance of market analysis to With reduced production rates, airframe OEMs are expect- aircraft and facilities. Lufthansa Technik is offering virtual some method of validating that whatever is being recorded paint a picture of the future, Andreas Drosdowski, head ed to retain an aftermarket focus, and some analysts believe borescope inspections in the wake of travel restrictions, en- is happening where and when it is supposed to occur. of maintenance Europe and CEO of Lufthansa Technik they may look to form more alliances with MROs. Well-backed abling customers to follow engine inspections live from their Other technologies, such as AR and drones, are also see- Maintenance International, believes line maintenance will independents have also been tipped to grow market share locations and to communicate with technicians in real time. ing more interest as the crisis spurs the industry to embrace be the fi rst segment to pick up. “We see even more storage through buyouts and investments, and some are viewing the Magnetic MRO recently conducted its first test of a vi- innovation. Western Michigan University noted during a re- programs coming up which will generate work,” he adds. current crisis as an opportunity. It is expected that smaller in- sual aircraft inspection, which consisted of preparing video cent ATEC webinar that the current situation is an opportu- Jonas Butautis, director of Australia-based Heston MRO, dependents and family businesses may be swallowed up. This material of both the airframe and interior using a struc- nity for technology innovation, with one instructor creating believes the company may adopt a more regional approach is most likely for those focused on repairs for maintenance- tured file system so potential customers could efficiently a mixed reality program using an AR headset to enable stu- after COVID-19, albeit one still centered on passenger travel. intensive legacy aircraft types operating in what will become locate and analyze sections of the aircraft. The MRO says dents to see inside, take apart and reassemble CFM engines. “Our customer pool may change to a more local or regional an even more new-generation-focused market. this technology will be used in the future both for situations PTC recently worked with the Air Force 58th Special one, but we will still work with commercial airlines in the Despite the uncertainties remaining, and many compa- where travel restrictions are in place and in other cases Operations Group at Kirtland AFB, New Mexico, to use its region. There are still some 30 times more passenger than nies waiting for better indications of what a market recovery when physical inspections are not possible. Vuforia AR software to capture heavy maintenance process- cargo aircraft globally, so this visual increase in importance will look like, some independent companies still see an op- “Challenges the industry is facing can be tackled and es for Bell-Boeing CV-22 Osprey aircraft that can be used of cargo aviation will not generate a major shift in MRO portunity. Risto Maeots, CEO of Magnetic MRO, says the solved by the implementation of digital solutions—and [the] for training technical personnel. PTC notes that new social trends for the industry players.” company would look at possible acquisitions. “We have to aviation industry should be at the forefront in using innova- distancing requirements will accelerate the need for new Keren Rambow, a GE Aviation marketing services execu- come out of this crisis first, but we are also looking at ways tive methods instead of being blinded by the routine,” says tools and techniques when it comes to training or reskilling tive, summarizes the market position well: “The recovery to keep growing afterward,” he says. Tonno Toompuu, engineering manager at Magnetic MRO. technical sta post-pandemic. demand will dictate the levels of aftermarket supply.” c

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ing categories: ease of doing busi- OEMs’ Customer ness, product reliability, technical support, parts cost, parts availability, aircraft-on-ground (AOG) support, Support Rankings OEM repair cost, OEM service center performance, overall satisfaction and CFM topples Boeing as the highest-ranked likelihood of recommending them to a peer or colleague. OEM in latest survey There are regional differences but, in general, European airlines are less Lee Ann Shay Chicago critical and North American are far more critical of their supply base, says FM International has become BAE Systems was the top avionics Jonas Murby, an AeroDynamic Advi- the highest-rated customer ser- supplier, and Parker Aerospace gener- sory principal. Cvice MRO company, beating out ated the highest score among the me- Boeing, which held that position for the chanical/electrical suppliers. POSITIVES last two years, based on the third an- Of the OEMs ranked, only seven CFM made several gains this year, in- nual Air Transport Aftermarket Cus- logged strong satisfaction scores. cluding in ease of doing business, prod- tomer Satisfaction Survey, done coop- On a scale of 0-10, with 10 being the uct reliability, technical support and eratively by Inside MRO, Air Transport highest, those OEMs are CFM (7.5), AOG support. Of the nine customer World and AeroDynamic Advisory. Airbus (7.3), Boeing (7.2), GE Aviation service categories, it had the highest All of the engine OEMs, in fact, im- (engines, 7.1), Pratt & Whitney (APUs, score in five. “They are also compara- proved their overall scores this year ex- 7.1) and Parker Aerospace (7.0). tively strong in all geographic regions,” cept for Rolls-Royce, which slipped to says Murby. the lowest-scoring engine OEM in the THE DETAILS CFM Leap engines experienced survey. Rolls-Royce has been plagued The survey was conducted from mid- early problems, which most likely ac- by Trent 1000 intermediate-pressure February to mid-May, with 185 quali- counts for its overall score of 6.9 in turbine and intermediate compressor fied responses, including 62 unique 2019, versus 7.5 in 2020. However, as CFM has incorporated prod- vera asacon core y er uct improvements, “Leap 1A reliability has improved significantly over the last 12 CFM months in key areas such Airbus as engine removals,” says a Boeing company representative. GE (Engines) Pratt & Whitney (APU) To prepare for the Boeing BAE Systems 737 MAX’s recertification, Parker Aerospace Honeywell (APU) CFM says it has been pro- GE (Avionics) actively working with cus- Bombardier Pratt & Whitney (Engines) tomers during the ground- Eaton Aerospace ing and has “developed an Liebherr extensive de-preservation Thales checklist” to smooth the Rolls-Royce Collins Aerospace (Avionics) Honeywell (Avionics) process for service reentry. Embraer CFM also has expanded its Honeywell (Landing Gear/ Leap MRO network, which Mechanical Systems) includes 250 technical ser- Collins Aerospace (Mechanical Systems) vice representatives on-site Panasonic with airlines in at least 50 countries. “The three CFM Source: 2020 Air Transport Aftermarket Customer Satisfaction Survey call centers (China, France problems that have grounded a portion airlines from around the world. The and the U.S.) handle more than 2,200 of the Boeing 787 fleet. number of responses was lower than in inquiries each month and are required The 787 and 737 MAX groundings previous years, which could be expect- to respond within four hours. This team probably also contributed to Airbus ed because the COVID-19 pandemic has maintained better than a 95% re- overtaking Boeing as the best in the was unfurling during that period, and sponse rate to customer commitment,” airframe category. Airbus was the only airlines were in sheer survival mode. says a company representative. airframe OEM whose overall custom- Only 21 suppliers received enough re- Airbus has also expanded its service er satisfaction score improved year sponses to be statistically valid. network in the last year by “reinforcing over year. OEMs were ranked in the follow- our Africa-Middle East region and our

MRO16 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Operations vera asacon omose cores ing categories: ease of doing busi- Dubai-based customer service ness, product reliability, technical teams,” says Valerie Manning, OEMs’ Customer support, parts cost, parts availability, Airbus senior vice president for aircraft-on-ground (AOG) support, customer support. Airbus has Support Rankings OEM repair cost, OEM service center more than 1,000 aircraft based performance, overall satisfaction and in the region. CFM topples Boeing as the highest-ranked likelihood of recommending them to a Airbus had the highest score peer or colleague. of airframe OEMs in product OEM in latest survey There are regional differences but, reliability and OEM service in general, European airlines are less center performance. Lee Ann Shay Chicago critical and North American are far Parker Hannifin has also Aircraft OEMs Engine and APU OEMs Mechanical/Electrical Avionics Suppliers more critical of their supply base, says been putting a premium on cus- Suppliers FM International has become BAE Systems was the top avionics Jonas Murby, an AeroDynamic Advi- tomer service in the last several Source: 2020 Air Customer Satisfaction Survey the highest-rated customer ser- supplier, and Parker Aerospace gener- sory principal. years, which seems to resonate with its Parker’s leaders and business units ing well, some factors can be forgiven, Cvice MRO company, beating out ated the highest score among the me- customer base. It has expanded its in- are measured on the LTR scores, which but if it’s simply di cult to do business, Boeing, which held that position for the chanical/electrical suppliers. POSITIVES region support—including inventory Major says have “steadily increased ev- other factors, such as parts prices, see last two years, based on the third an- Of the OEMs ranked, only seven CFM made several gains this year, in- pooling centers in the Middle East, ery year since the program’s inception.” more scrutiny as well. nual Air Transport Aftermarket Cus- logged strong satisfaction scores. cluding in ease of doing business, prod- Europe and Asia as well as repair ca- BAE Systems, which captured the Collins Aerospace’s avionics, which tomer Satisfaction Survey, done coop- On a scale of 0-10, with 10 being the uct reliability, technical support and pabilities. It also opened 24/7 customer top avionics supplier ranking , had the has consistently been known for highly eratively by Inside MRO, Air Transport highest, those OEMs are CFM (7.5), AOG support. Of the nine customer response centers in Irvine, California, highest rating of avionics suppliers in ranked customer service, fell from 7.1 World and AeroDynamic Advisory. Airbus (7.3), Boeing (7.2), GE Aviation service categories, it had the highest and in Singapore. fi ve of the categories: product reliabil- in 2019 to 6.4 in this survey—dropping All of the engine OEMs, in fact, im- (engines, 7.1), Pratt & Whitney (APUs, score in five. “They are also compara- Parker Hannifi n CEO Tom Williams ity, technical support, parts cost, parts most in terms of parts costs, parts proved their overall scores this year ex- 7.1) and Parker Aerospace (7.0). tively strong in all geographic regions,” also established a Net Promoter Score availability and AOG support. It also availability and OEM service center cept for Rolls-Royce, which slipped to says Murby. index called Likelihood to Recommend tied with Thales for the top spot in OEM performance. the lowest-scoring engine OEM in the THE DETAILS CFM Leap engines experienced (LTR), which customers are asked about service center performance and tied “UTC was hoping to take Collins’ survey. Rolls-Royce has been plagued The survey was conducted from mid- early problems, which most likely ac- after every signifi cant business transac- with GE Aviation for OEM repair costs. best-in-class customer service and by Trent 1000 intermediate-pressure February to mid-May, with 185 quali- counts for its overall score of 6.9 in tion, says Austin Major, Parker Aero- spread it throughout the company, but turbine and intermediate compressor fied responses, including 62 unique 2019, versus 7.5 in 2020. However, as space group vice president for business EATIVES the opposite happened,” says Kevin CFM has incorporated prod- development and customer support. Most companies that were going Michaels, AeroDynamic Advisory man- vera asacon core y er uct improvements, “Leap 1A “Customers who have good experiences through mergers in the past year have aging director. Historically Collins (and reliability has improved sig- hold a greater appreciation for the over- dropped in overall customer satisfac- predecessor Rockwell Collins) had its nificantly over the last 12 all value o ered by Parker and actively tion, raising the issue of whether the leadership and aftermarket headquar- CFM months in key areas such promote our brand. They are more merger process distracted from cus- tered in one place—Cedar Rapids, Airbus as engine removals,” says a likely to have a strong interest in new tomer service. Many companies in the Iowa. But now leadership and func- Boeing company representative. product o erings and product improve- merger process took a hit in ease of tionality are dispersed, which Michaels GE (Engines) Pratt & Whitney (APU) To prepare for the Boeing ments, and to consider broadening their doing business, which seems to be a thinks could have negatively a ected BAE Systems 737 MAX’s recertification, business with Parker,” he adds. strong indicator that if things are go- its customer service. Parker Aerospace Honeywell (APU) CFM says it has been pro- GE (Avionics) actively working with cus- ane o e romoer cores Bombardier Pratt & Whitney (Engines) tomers during the ground- an o erormers ing and has “developed an Top-Performing Company Eaton Aerospace Liebherr extensive de-preservation Other Companies Thales checklist” to smooth the 40 Collins Aerospace (Avionics) 2018 Rolls-Royce process for service reentry. Boeing Honeywell (Avionics) 30 2019 Embraer CFM also has expanded its Boeing Honeywell (Landing Gear/ Leap MRO network, which 20 CFM 2020 Mechanical Systems) includes 250 technical ser- 10 CFM Collins Aerospace vice representatives on-site BAE (Mechanical Systems) Airbus Systems with airlines in at least 50 0 CFM Panasonic Parker countries. “The three CFM GE Source: 2020 Air Transport Aftermarket Customer Satisfaction Survey -10 call centers (China, France problems that have grounded a portion airlines from around the world. The and the U.S.) handle more than 2,200 -20 Liebherr of the Boeing 787 fleet. number of responses was lower than in inquiries each month and are required The 787 and 737 MAX groundings previous years, which could be expect- to respond within four hours. This team -30 probably also contributed to Airbus ed because the COVID-19 pandemic has maintained better than a 95% re- -40 overtaking Boeing as the best in the was unfurling during that period, and sponse rate to customer commitment,” airframe category. Airbus was the only airlines were in sheer survival mode. says a company representative. -50 airframe OEM whose overall custom- Only 21 suppliers received enough re- Airbus has also expanded its service -60 er satisfaction score improved year sponses to be statistically valid. network in the last year by “reinforcing Aircraft OEMs Engine/APU OEMs Mechanical/ Avionics Suppliers over year. OEMs were ranked in the follow- our Africa-Middle East region and our Electrical Suppliers Source: 2020 Air Customer Satisfaction Survey

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Collins’ Mechanical Systems unit, due to the pandemic, “we aggressively Honeywell Aerospace’s landing gear di- which covers everything from cargo accelerated our MRO capability for vision took a dive—dropping 1.1 points systems to actuation, includes dispa- the GTF family to incorporate avail- to an overall score of 5.9—but its APU rate systems that were lumped togeth- able upgrades in anticipation of the business received higher marks, which er, “so it’s not surprising that they’re recovery.” For some upgrades, “we es- could partly be attributed to its Forge at the bottom,” says Michaels. Collins tablished ‘quick turn’ facilities to fur- analytics platform. “Airlines have been Aerospace’s Mechanical Systems ther accelerate modifications,” says a willing to pay for it because it works,” group scored an overall 5.8 this year, company representative. says Michaels. as opposed to 6.8 last year. Pratt’s APU business also made a Interestingly, Pratt & Whitney, also modest climb in the ratings, from 6.7 NET PROMOTER SCORES part of the UTC merger and now part last year to 7.1 this year. Net Promoter Scores (NPS), which of the bigger Raytheon, showed an im- However, Boeing and Embraer, gauge how likely customers are to rec- provement—an overall score of 6.8 this which had planned to establish a ommend a product, are tabulated by year as opposed to 6.3 last year. Pratt commercial aircraft joint venture but subtracting the negative responses from has been working through the low- called it off in late April, both took a hit. the positives ones to derive a net score. pressure turbine (LPT) blade and seal Boeing’s scores in every product sup- For the last two years, Boeing had problems—and is now in the process of port category fell from last year, and all been the only aerospace OEM in the upgrading the LPT in PW11100G-JM of Embraer’s scores did except for one: survey that logged a positive NPS. models as part of an FAA and Europe- Parts costs increased to 6.3 this year Regardless, Boeing’s difficult year an Union Aviation Safety Agency man- compared to 6.2 last year. Whether the plunged it into negative territory. date. Interestingly, of the engine OEMs, joint venture abandonment caused the However, CFM’s product support Pratt & Whitney scored the highest in decline in customer service scores is efforts lifted its score, making it the AOG support, which could be based on unclear, because Boeing has also been only NPS-positive company in this its handling of these problems. dealing with the grounded MAX fleet year’s survey. The OEM says that more than half as well as other program delays and Aviation OEMs lag NPS levels in of the GTF-powered fleet is now active, leadership changes. other industries, and this year was not but when several fleets were grounded Looking at other scores that fell, an exception. c

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Collins’ Mechanical Systems unit, due to the pandemic, “we aggressively Honeywell Aerospace’s landing gear di- outstations, where parts from any one airline may be scarce. which covers everything from cargo accelerated our MRO capability for vision took a dive—dropping 1.1 points Old Pooling IATP is now in discussions with OEMs such as Boeing, systems to actuation, includes dispa- the GTF family to incorporate avail- to an overall score of 5.9—but its APU Airbus, Collins Aerospace, and global MROs such as rate systems that were lumped togeth- able upgrades in anticipation of the business received higher marks, which Lufthansa Technik and AFI-KLM E&M about accessing their er, “so it’s not surprising that they’re recovery.” For some upgrades, “we es- could partly be attributed to its Forge Dog Learns pool parts for IATP members to pool with each other. “They at the bottom,” says Michaels. Collins tablished ‘quick turn’ facilities to fur- analytics platform. “Airlines have been are willing to help,” Lucktong says. “But we have to find a way Aerospace’s Mechanical Systems ther accelerate modifications,” says a willing to pay for it because it works,” to do it.” Current power-by-the-hour contracts with OEM and group scored an overall 5.8 this year, company representative. says Michaels. New Tricks MRO spare-part pools have limitations on sharing. The ques- as opposed to 6.8 last year. Pratt’s APU business also made a tion is how to modify them or work within the limitations. Interestingly, Pratt & Whitney, also modest climb in the ratings, from 6.7 NET PROMOTER SCORES Roadblocks to parts pooling lessen Lucktong expects that OEMs, MROs and IATP members part of the UTC merger and now part last year to 7.1 this year. Net Promoter Scores (NPS), which as pooling options expand will find a way to share parts with IATP pools. “It saves costs of the bigger Raytheon, showed an im- However, Boeing and Embraer, gauge how likely customers are to rec- for everybody, and everyone gets more benefit,” he says. provement—an overall score of 6.8 this which had planned to establish a ommend a product, are tabulated by Henry Canaday Nashville, Tennessee IATP has identified five key airlines including British year as opposed to 6.3 last year. Pratt commercial aircraft joint venture but subtracting the negative responses from Airways, Delta Air Lines, Thai, United Airlines and Virgin has been working through the low- called it off in late April, both took a hit. the positives ones to derive a net score. ith passenger traffic largely shut down, few airlines Atlantic and the five major OEMs and MROs mentioned pressure turbine (LPT) blade and seal Boeing’s scores in every product sup- For the last two years, Boeing had are worried about spare parts stocks, as they can above to work on the challenge. problems—and is now in the process of port category fell from last year, and all been the only aerospace OEM in the W cannibalize grounded aircraft as needed. Indeed, Some power-by-the-hour support providers have proposed upgrading the LPT in PW11100G-JM of Embraer’s scores did except for one: survey that logged a positive NPS. when an aircraft-on-ground part need arises, the Interna- that they supply parts directly to IATP airlines under IATP models as part of an FAA and Europe- Parts costs increased to 6.3 this year Regardless, Boeing’s difficult year tional Airline Technical Pool (IATP) often finds it harder to pooling. Selected Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 parts would an Union Aviation Safety Agency man- compared to 6.2 last year. Whether the plunged it into negative territory. find airline staff—many of whom have been furloughed—than be used in a pilot program at certain stations. Five IATP date. Interestingly, of the engine OEMs, joint venture abandonment caused the However, CFM’s product support parts, according to Francesco Tetti, International Airlines airlines would propose part numbers, previous usage and Pratt & Whitney scored the highest in decline in customer service scores is efforts lifted its score, making it the Technical Pool senior busi- stations—and power-by- AOG support, which could be based on unclear, because Boeing has also been only NPS-positive company in this ness manager. the-hour providers would its handling of these problems. dealing with the grounded MAX fleet year’s survey. As traffic returns, airlines evaluate and make recom- The OEM says that more than half as well as other program delays and Aviation OEMs lag NPS levels in will need to pool parts and mendations. of the GTF-powered fleet is now active, leadership changes. other industries, and this year was not services. It is a smart way to How long might it take to but when several fleets were grounded Looking at other scores that fell, an exception. c achieve economies of scale set up this pool of pools? “We in managing important ac- are trying to do it one year tivities, especially stocking from now,” Lucktong says. parts for emergencies. IATP offers more than Some pools are straight- just pooling of spare parts. Discover more www.aeroengineconference.com forward part-sharing agree- It also offers pools for line ments, while others are just maintenance, pools for air- elements in packages of craft recovery and pools of parts, repairs, logistics and ground tools and equipment. technical support backed by Line maintenance pool- an asset manager. For IATP, THINKSTOCK PHOTOS ing, like parts pooling, offers the extraordinary growth of pools is both confirmation of its the benefits of scale and local specialization. But it is limited original goals and a challenge to future usefulness. With so by restrictions imposed by some local regulators. many pools available, will IATP’s approach remain important? Restrictions can cause various problems. Some nations The organization thinks it will be and is already expanding prohibit a carrier from pooling with another IATP member, multiple services to complement and exploit increased use of requiring it to do its own line maintenance, which is inef- pooling options. As with leading airlines, manufacturers and ficient and costly if the airline has few local flights. Other VIRTUAL MROs, IATP is learning new tricks to reduce costs, improve nations prohibit even self-handling. “Airlines have to use local 16-17 SEPTEMBER 2020 service and ensure safety. maintenance organizations,” Lucktong explains. Five years ago, IATP saw decreases in its pooling activi- In both cases, IATP attempts to explain to local regulators ties, remembers San Lucktong, director of technical mar- the advantages of line pooling. “It’s not about making money, INTRODUCING THE FIRST EVER VIRTUAL keting and sales at Thai Airways International and now in but helping each other out,” Lucktong says. charge of IATP’s third-party pooling project. “It was because IATP has had some success in opening up airports for GATHERING FOR THE AERO-ENGINE COMMUNITY of new aircraft and the business model of OEMs and some line pooling in recent years. For example, Saudi Arabia now MROs that offer power-by-the-hour programs, including allows it. But the issue is still open in other countries. GET IN TOUCH: support of spare parts,” Lucktong explains. Overall, IATP’s most strongly growing pools are for line Power-by-the-hour programs establish a one-to-one con- maintenance, despite local restrictions, and for spare parts, Speaker Enquiries: Sponsor/Exhibitor Enquiries: Registration Enquiries: tract between OEM or MRO and its airline customer and despite the flight-hour contracts. Lucktong notes flight-hour Hannah Bonnett Victoria Keeble [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] do not allow the airline to share the provider’s spare parts contracts mostly apply to new models like the Boeing 787 with other airlines. and Airbus A350 and can last for up to 12 years. IATP leaders had to find a way to make OEM- or MRO- IATP has added six new airline members in the last 12 #AEEUR | provided parts available to other airlines to maximize the months, for a total of 118 airline members. The organization benefits of its pool services. A project group was formed to also has a select number of supplier members, with that help airlines share newly provided parts with other carriers at number limited to one-fourth of its airline members. c

MRO18 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO19 LUFTHANSA TECHNIK O Interview MRO Market Recovery Johannes Bussmann, Lufthansa Technik’s CEO, talks with Lee Ann Shay about how one of the largest MRO providers in the world is handling business during the coronavirus crisis and what long-term changes could be coming.

What are your predictions for the nical perspective, whether it’s more re- have proven that you can do those MRO market? pairs on a particular component is not without being in the same room. Long- relevant at the moment because the haul travel will come back last, which is The biggest hit from my perspective utilization of the global fleet is too low. why we will have time to stabilize these will be on the engine side. Because some However, I think by the fourth quarter ways of working. That’s why we think airlines are reducing their fleets, espe- that will come more into the forefront the digitalization of processes will con- cially widebody types, that will offer of the discussion. tinue and the confidence level in data lots of spare engine life. For four-engine provided by the aircraft is increasing, aircraft, I expect a very low induction Do you think the crisis will shift the bal- which is why I’m sure that this trend for a long time because airlines will use ance between OEMs and independents? will last. At the same time, I think there green-time engines. At the same time, will be more focus on shorter-term in- OEMs and network partners did a good I don’t think there will be a general novation developments. We are review- job performing restoration work on change in the balance. The existing ing our development portfolio and have Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan and fleet will stay in play for a bit longer, so parked a lot of projects that have long- CFM Leap engines, which was a big that will generate MRO demand once term requirements and are focusing on problem until the end of February— aircraft are operating again. Then of the shorter-term ones. but then capacity opened for them to course service plays a different role in do this work. They did a good job with that now, which doesn’t favor OEMs. What’s happening with Aviatar? materials supply from our perspective But I don’t think it will significantly so that a lot of these shop visits could change the market mechanism. Will We brought collaboration with Honey- take place during the downtime. we see a price war on certain things? well Forge online, so we have a lot of I’m pretty sure we will. Financially airlines testing this. That’s the biggest Do you think the MRO industry will weak partners in the OEM network trend: We have more airlines trying out recover in 12-18 months? might disappear, and if this happens, what we offer, which is something you we’ll probably see that in the next can do without traveling. The customer Except for engines and landing gears, 6-12 months. base is growing, and we’re seeing more for which airlines will look for green- intense collaboration. time alternatives, all the other parts of Will Lufthansa Technik keep all of its the business will come back to coincide facilities across the network? How are you helping customers with with flight movements. It might be a their parked aircraft? little ahead or behind with a particular We operate on a global scale, which technology group, but in general it will usually protects us from downturns We have digital solutions that help air- all come back. We are helping custom- because of regional differences, but this lines with the overview of fleet condi- ers optimize their cash flow. That pays time it doesn’t help us. But we can par- tions. Most parking doesn’t take place back much better in the long run than ticipate in the ramp-up, which is hap- at carriers’ home bases, so given the trying to fight for shop visits. pening. In Asia, movements are picking remote positioning, digital tools are up, and we can benefit from the restart especially helpful in fulfilling authori- Are you expecting higher demand for there. It looks like the Western part of ties’ requirements. Airlines also want used serviceable materials and repairs? the world will come last. From a stra- transparency on which parts are in- tegic perspective, there is no change in stalled in which aircraft—they want Of course. The availability of used parts how we look at the aftermarket. to know where their interchangeable will increase because of the number of parts are—and how much life is re - aircraft retirements. A lot of mature What changes or innovations are maining on them. Should they repair fleets won’t come back. you hoping to see from the business the part, yes or no? They want to op- during this unprecedented time? timize the workflows as part of fleet What requests are you getting from management services. c customers? I think digital innovations will be strong. Traveling restrictions from Video See more of the interview with It’s predominantly around payment countries far away drove more table Bussman: AviationWeek.com/ad-week/ schemes, which is natural. From a tech- inspections. High-definition videos video-interviews

MRO20 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO LUFTHANSA TECHNIK O Interview O Avionics

tion and recovery of flight data pres- ICAO Postpones ents a challenge, Australia asserted in MRO Market Recovery a working paper submitted to the ICAO Assembly. Cosponsored by New Zea- Johannes Bussmann, Lufthansa Technik’s CEO, talks with Distress Tracking land and South Africa, the paper asked Lee Ann Shay about how one of the largest MRO providers in the the agency to poll its member states on Member states acknowledge the their preparedness to meet the ADT world is handling business during the coronavirus crisis and what standard by 2021. long-term changes could be coming. “industry wasn’t ready” “Full implementation of the ADT and accompanying post-flight localiza- What are your predictions for the nical perspective, whether it’s more re- have proven that you can do those Bill Carey Washington tion and recovery requirements is de- MRO market? pairs on a particular component is not without being in the same room. Long- pendent on the development, testing relevant at the moment because the haul travel will come back last, which is ost commercial airliners al- ing technologies and develop a timely and certification of new technology and The biggest hit from my perspective utilization of the global fleet is too low. why we will have time to stabilize these ready had satellite communi- response to emergencies followed the equipment for successful installation will be on the engine side. Because some However, I think by the fourth quarter ways of working. That’s why we think Mcations systems that complied still unresolved disappearance of a into new and (optionally) retrofitting airlines are reducing their fleets, espe- that will come more into the forefront the digitalization of processes will con- with an international standard requir- Malay sia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER existing aircraft,” Australia argued. cially widebody types, that will offer of the discussion. tinue and the confidence level in data ing an aircraft under normal flight in the Indian Ocean in March 2014 and “In addition, there appears to be lots of spare engine life. For four-engine provided by the aircraft is increasing, conditions to report its position at least the prolonged search for an Air France inconsistent awareness across states aircraft, I expect a very low induction Do you think the crisis will shift the bal- which is why I’m sure that this trend every 15 min., a rule that became effec- Airbus A330-203 after it crashed in the and industry of the GADSS, and a lack for a long time because airlines will use ance between OEMs and independents? will last. At the same time, I think there tive in November 2018. Atlantic Ocean in June 2009. of coordination and information shar- green-time engines. At the same time, will be more focus on shorter-term in- The next step in implementing the Two months after the disappearing between relevant ICAO technical OEMs and network partners did a good I don’t think there will be a general novation developments. We are review- Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety ance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, panels and those responsible for SAR job performing restoration work on change in the balance. The existing ing our development portfolio and have System (GADSS)—provid- OROLIA Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan and fleet will stay in play for a bit longer, so parked a lot of projects that have long- ing a capability for auton- A D S S S CFM Leap engines, which was a big that will generate MRO demand once term requirements and are focusing on omous distress tracking problem until the end of February— aircraft are operating again. Then of the shorter-term ones. (ADT) position report- but then capacity opened for them to course service plays a different role in ing at 1-min. intervals by S do this work. They did a good job with that now, which doesn’t favor OEMs. What’s happening with Aviatar? 2021—has proven more materials supply from our perspective But I don’t think it will significantly challenging. In March, the so that a lot of these shop visits could change the market mechanism. Will We brought collaboration with Honey- International Civil Avia- SAR (RCC) ATSU take place during the downtime. we see a price war on certain things? well Forge online, so we have a lot of tion Organization (ICAO) I’m pretty sure we will. Financially airlines testing this. That’s the biggest Council postponed the Distress Tracking Data Repository AOC Do you think the MRO industry will weak partners in the OEM network trend: We have more airlines trying out ADT requirement for new- ADT Processing ADT Transmitter Operator Event Detection Autonomous recover in 12-18 months? might disappear, and if this happens, what we offer, which is something you build aircraft by two years, Trigger-in-ﬂight Location and Power we’ll probably see that in the next can do without traveling. The customer to 2023. Ground Station Except for engines and landing gears, 6-12 months. base is growing, and we’re seeing more The ADT topic was for which airlines will look for green- intense collaboration. raised during the 40th ses- A S S S S time alternatives, all the other parts of Will Lufthansa Technik keep all of its sion of the 193-member- ADT Autonomous distress tracking, A Aeronautical operational control, ATSU Air trafﬁc services unit, the business will come back to coincide facilities across the network? How are you helping customers with state ICAO Assembly R Regional coordination center, SAR Search and rescue with flight movements. It might be a their parked aircraft? last October, “and sub- little ahead or behind with a particular We operate on a global scale, which sequently the ICAO Air Autonomous distress tracking with GADSS requires coordination by multiple stakeholders. technology group, but in general it will usually protects us from downturns We have digital solutions that help air- Navigation Commission all come back. We are helping custom- because of regional differences, but this lines with the overview of fleet condi- determined through a series of con- ICAO convened a special meeting of [search and rescue], leading to poten- ers optimize their cash flow. That pays time it doesn’t help us. But we can par- tions. Most parking doesn’t take place sultations that industry wasn’t ready industry and government experts at tial misunderstandings and differing back much better in the long run than ticipate in the ramp-up, which is hap- at carriers’ home bases, so given the yet and therefore countries wouldn’t be its Montreal headquarters, at which interpretations.” trying to fight for shop visits. pening. In Asia, movements are picking remote positioning, digital tools are able to realistically enforce the original the GADSS concept was conceived. Industry sources say Boeing and up, and we can benefit from the restart especially helpful in fulfilling authori- deadline,” says the U.N. agency’s com- Satellite connectivity provided by Airbus lobbied regulators to extend the Are you expecting higher demand for there. It looks like the Western part of ties’ requirements. Airlines also want munications office. Iridium and Inmarsat spacecraft and ADT compliance date to provide more used serviceable materials and repairs? the world will come last. From a stra- transparency on which parts are in- ICAO’s Annex 6, Part I, Section aviation communications network pro- time to modify their production lines for tegic perspective, there is no change in stalled in which aircraft—they want 6.18.1 requirement that new-build air- viders ARINC and SITA already fa- new equipment. The manufacturers, re- Of course. The availability of used parts how we look at the aftermarket. to know where their interchangeable craft with a maximum takeoff weight cilitated the GADSS 15-min. “normal” portedly making vendor selections, did will increase because of the number of parts are—and how much life is re - (MTOW) of more than 27,000 kg tracking standard. Another means not provide information when asked aircraft retirements. A lot of mature What changes or innovations are maining on them. Should they repair (59,525 lb.) autonomously transmit of tracking transponding aircraft— about their progress toward imple- fleets won’t come back. you hoping to see from the business the part, yes or no? They want to op- position data at least once every min- Aireon’s space-based automatic depen- menting ADT forward-fit provisions. during this unprecedented time? timize the workflows as part of fleet ute will now enter force on Jan. 1, 2023. dent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) An industry standardization group, What requests are you getting from management services. c The ADT standard is recommended, system—entered service in March 2019. the ARINC-SAE Airlines Electronic customers? I think digital innovations will be but not required, for aircraft weighing But achieving the next planned Engineering Committee (AEEC), pub- strong. Traveling restrictions from Video See more of the interview with more than 5,700 kg. GADSS implementation step for ADT lished technical requirements, archi- It’s predominantly around payment countries far away drove more table Bussman: AviationWeek.com/ad-week/ Impetus to establish the GADSS at 1-min. intervals and an accompany- tectural options and recommended schemes, which is natural. From a tech- inspections. High-definition videos video-interviews construct to exploit air-ground tracking requirement for post-flight localiza- interface standards for an ADT system

MRO20 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO21 O Avionics in August 2019. The AEEC reviewed the ICAO standards in several ways. Still to be released is an industry system architectures and architecture Whereas the ICAO requirements standard supporting the GADSS re- combinations involving ADS-B, satellite apply to aircraft with an MTOW of quirements for post-flight localization communications and emergency locator more than 27,000 kg, the EU specifies and recovery of flight recorder data. transmitter distress tracking ELT(DT). aircraft weighing more than 27,000 kg These apply to new aircraft with an The European Union Aviation Safety with passenger seating capacity of 19 MTOW of 27,000 kg and authorized Agency (EASA) has taken the lead in or more and all aircraft with an MTOW to carry more than 19 passengers, for refining ICAO’s ADT mandate into a exceeding 45,000 kg. The applicable which an application for type certifica- regulatory requirement for EU-regis- event for ADT as defined by ICAO is an tion is submitted on or after Jan. 1, 2021. tered airliners. In February, EASA re- aircraft in distress; CAT.GEN.MPA.210 Industry guidance will be contained leased Notice of Proposed Amendment specifies an “accident where the air- in Project Paper 681, which is under de- (NPA) 2020-03, containing amended plane is severely damaged.” velopment by the ARINC-SAE Timely certification specifications, acceptable The required means for distress Recovery of Flight Data (TRFD) Work- means of compliance and guidance ma- tracking will be “autonomous transmis- ing Group. terial to implement a regulation the EU sion” by ICAO standard and “robust “The ICAO decision to postpone ADT published in December 2015. and automatic means” by the proposed requirements from 2021 to 2023 does The EU regulation—CAT.GEN. European requirement, EASA says. not directly influence the TRFD deliv- MPA.210—requires fitting some cat- The NPA 2020-03 comment period erable. We anticipate completing the egories of large aircraft with a “robust ended May 29, and a review of the Project Paper 681 in early 2021 for ac- and accurate means to locate the point public input will take anywhere from ceptance at the ARINC General Session of end of flight in case of a distress situ- a few weeks to months, says EASA. in May [2021],” the working group says ation,” says EASA. The agency will then publish final in response to an Aviation Week inquiry. ICAO procedural standards for lo- amendments to the regulation. CAT. “As a new aircraft model is devel- cating an aircraft in distress are con- GEN.MPA.210 applies to commercial oped and certified typically within five tained in Annex 6 Part 1. According air transport operators based in EU years, the first airplane model required to EASA, the European Union’s CAT. member states, for aircraft manufac- to have TRFD would be 2026 at the GEN.MPA.210 regulation differs from tured after Jan. 1, 2023. earliest,” the working group adds. c

Reiabe Nes Conise orat

SpeedNews is the source or relevant insihts news an inormation owerin commercial aviation. ent electronicall to eecutives rel on its uniue uick rea ormat to

➤ onitor cometition with timel announcements rom airlines aviation suliers an manuacturers incluin aircrat orers transactions. ➤ ncover new business oortunities resultin rom merer an acuisition activit an rouct eveloments. ➤ onnect an network with inustr leaers at one o eeews worl class events.

isoer eas in eas Gro our Business

earn More at aiationeeko/speenes

MRO22 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Avionics in August 2019. The AEEC reviewed the ICAO standards in several ways. Still to be released is an industry ommended inspection procedures will increase the likelihood system architectures and architecture Whereas the ICAO requirements standard supporting the GADSS re- Of Fuel Tanks of microorganisms forming. As an example, he points out that combinations involving ADS-B, satellite apply to aircraft with an MTOW of quirements for post-flight localization the fuel tanks of an aircraft in storage should be sumped— communications and emergency locator more than 27,000 kg, the EU specifies and recovery of flight recorder data. drained of the water and contaminants that collect at the low transmitter distress tracking ELT(DT). aircraft weighing more than 27,000 kg These apply to new aircraft with an and Microbes point of the fuel tank—and inspected for water and contami- The European Union Aviation Safety with passenger seating capacity of 19 MTOW of 27,000 kg and authorized nates damage. “Aviation fuel tends to absorb moisture from Agency (EASA) has taken the lead in or more and all aircraft with an MTOW to carry more than 19 passengers, for Underutilized aircraft are at risk the atmosphere, so aircraft with more usage of fuel are less refining ICAO’s ADT mandate into a exceeding 45,000 kg. The applicable which an application for type certifica- susceptible,” he says. “If the fuel is constantly used, there is regulatory requirement for EU-regis- event for ADT as defined by ICAO is an tion is submitted on or after Jan. 1, 2021. of microorganism infestation no time for this issue to occur.” tered airliners. In February, EASA re- aircraft in distress; CAT.GEN.MPA.210 Industry guidance will be contained Paul Seidenman and Microbial buildup in the fuel tanks can also lead to collateral leased Notice of Proposed Amendment specifies an “accident where the air- in Project Paper 681, which is under de- David J. Spanovich San Francisco damage, clogging engine fuel filters, for example. As Anthony (NPA) 2020-03, containing amended plane is severely damaged.” velopment by the ARINC-SAE Timely Laude, senior systems engineering technical leader at GE certification specifications, acceptable The required means for distress Recovery of Flight Data (TRFD) Work- ith much of the global commercial airliner fleet Aviation explains, microbial contaminants themselves are means of compliance and guidance ma- tracking will be “autonomous transmis- ing Group. idled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, microbial usually captured by the engine fuel filter. The filter, which he terial to implement a regulation the EU sion” by ICAO standard and “robust “The ICAO decision to postpone ADT W contamination of fuel tanks has become a growing says is a consumable and easily replaced as a line maintenance published in December 2015. and automatic means” by the proposed requirements from 2021 to 2023 does concern. The build up of harmful microorganisms can corrode item, incorporates a monitoring pressure system that issues The EU regulation—CAT.GEN. European requirement, EASA says. not directly influence the TRFD deliv- aluminum and steel surfaces as well as break down the rubber an alert to the pilot if it becomes clogged. Should that hap- MPA.210—requires fitting some cat- The NPA 2020-03 comment period erable. We anticipate completing the system components specific to the fuel tanks. pen, the filter would go into a bypass mode, and the microbial egories of large aircraft with a “robust ended May 29, and a review of the Project Paper 681 in early 2021 for ac- and accurate means to locate the point public input will take anywhere from ceptance at the ARINC General Session of end of flight in case of a distress situ- a few weeks to months, says EASA. in May [2021],” the working group says ation,” says EASA. The agency will then publish final in response to an Aviation Week inquiry. ICAO procedural standards for lo- amendments to the regulation. CAT. “As a new aircraft model is devel- cating an aircraft in distress are con- GEN.MPA.210 applies to commercial oped and certified typically within five tained in Annex 6 Part 1. According air transport operators based in EU years, the first airplane model required LUFTHANSA TECHNIK PHOTOS to EASA, the European Union’s CAT. member states, for aircraft manufac- to have TRFD would be 2026 at the GEN.MPA.210 regulation differs from tured after Jan. 1, 2023. earliest,” the working group adds. c

Lufthansa Technik research has shown that aircraft with Harmful biofilm buildup was found within a wing tank being Reiabe Nes low utilization rates are as vulnerable to microbial buildup inspected at Lufthansa Technik. Tanks previously infected Conise orat in fuel tanks as those in long-term storage. are more likely to have a follow-up spread of microbial load. It is not just a problem for aircraft sitting in desert storage contaminants from the fuel tanks might reach and block the SpeedNews is the source or relevant insihts news an inormation owerin for weeks or months. Research by Lufthansa Technik focusing fuel system tubes and passages. “The blockage would have commercial aviation. ent electronicall to eecutives rel on its uniue uick on low-utilization aircraft found that fuel tank contamination to be addressed by sending those affected components to a rea ormat to is just as risky for aircraft still flying but at low utilization maintenance shop,” Laude notes. rates, says Ralf Riemann, Lufthansa Technik project leader The best defense against fuel tank microbial buildup is ➤ onitor cometition with timel announcements rom airlines aviation for fuel tank inspections. “In general, aircraft with low flight to comply with the recommendations in the aircraft OEM suliers an manuacturers incluin aircrat orers transactions. cycles are very susceptible to fuel tank contamination and manuals, which include proactive treatment procedures, says ➤ ncover new business oortunities resultin rom merer an acuisition the resulting damage. Long ground times, especially in com- Laude. “The aircraft fuel tank inspection is up to the operators activit an rouct eveloments. bination with warm to hot ambient conditions facilitate the and triggered by the level of contamination detected by fuel formation of microbials and biofilm,” he says. sample testing,” he notes. “Operators are expected to regu- ➤ onnect an network with inustr leaers at one o eeews worl class Riemann adds that once an aircraft fuel tank has been in- larly test their fuel tanks for microbial growth.” events. fected, a follow-up spread of the microbial load is much more To prevent such growth, Laude mentions two chemical bio- probable, based on Lufthansa Technik’s experience. “Long- cides that GE Aviation has approved, but one of the products, isoer eas in eas Gro our Business term storage requires closely monitoring the fuel system to Kathon FP 1.5, from Dupont, was removed from the OEMs’ prevent the initial formation and growth of microbial life.” He approved list of fuel additives following repetitive field issues stresses that if an aircraft is “frequently flying with regular due to misapplications. In fact, a Kathon FP 1.5 misapplication earn More at fueling,” the risk is comparatively low. was cited by the UK Air Accident Investigative Branch as the However, if an aircraft sits for more than a month, the fuel cause of a “serious incident” that nearly resulted in the loss of aiationeeko/speenes should be tested with a microbial test kit, suggests Art Smith, an Airbus A320 in the UK. The biocide was discontinued for AAR Corp.’s chief quality officer. Neglecting to perform rec- aviation use in March of this year.

MRO22 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO23 O Engineered

Biobor JF, manufactured by Hammonds Fuel Additives Inc., look into the fuel system with modern detection techniques is now the only available GE-approved product, but it is cur- has revealed—and suggests—that more interference from rently not approved for use in the European Union. However, microbial loads may occur than previously thought,” he says. that may change shortly. Lufthansa Technik’s research also shows a strong correla- “About 15 EU member states have allowed temporary use of tion between the risk of corrosion and microbiology layers in Biobor JF in order to help European operators cope with their the contaminated area. The reason, he explains, is the forma- high volume of parked aircraft,” says Laude. “The industry is tion of well-adhering biofilm zones. “The survival capabilities working on future biocides that will have to be assessed by of biofilms are remarkable, since water and humidity protect GE and other aircraft, engine and APU OEMs, and approved them against any toxic and biocidal attacks, enabling them to by local governmental authorities as well.” attack the tank wall through acidic micro-channels formed Christian Siry, head of Lufthansa Technik’s Central Mate- within the biofilm,” says Siry. “The mixing of biocides with the rials Technologies unit in Germany, says problems with mi- fuel is not resolving the problem once the biofilm formation crobial buildup can occur when fuel tanks constructed of has been established.” aluminum alloys are filled with jet fuel. Problems from micro- Siry adds that Lufthansa Technik and the University of bial contamination do not arise from “individual planktonic Hamburg have started a research project to develop a more microbes” in the fuel itself but from the biofilm growing at the accurate method for early detection of all microbiological con- interface of condensation water and fuel and from biofilm at tamination. It also allows for classifying the contamination as the bottom of the tank, he says. critical or not critical. “Corrosion occurs mainly on the bottom of the fuel tank “The employment of adjusted DNA technology considers below the growing biofilm. If not detected and removed at an the whole environment of the airplane operation—rather than early phase, it can lead to large defective zones,” Siry explains. fuel testing only—as an indirect indication of the fuel system “Fuel filter clogging may take place with potential impact on microbial contamination problem,” he says. “Thus, a compre- fuel flow integrity, and the fuel quantity indication system may hensive fuel filter analysis and other fuel system components show signs of fuel quantity fluctuation.” have already supported early warning indications,” he says. Siry also points out that in some cases there are signs of The next part of the research is developing an “improved microbial infestation in other fuel system components, such cleaning approach to ensure the reliable removal of the bio- as high-precision, fuel-wetted flight control units. “A closer film contamination.”c

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MRO24 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Engineered O Aircraft Analysis

Biobor JF, manufactured by Hammonds Fuel Additives Inc., look into the fuel system with modern detection techniques tion, airlines had begun to reveal is now the only available GE-approved product, but it is cur- has revealed—and suggests—that more interference from Permanently their retirement plans, with some— rently not approved for use in the European Union. However, microbial loads may occur than previously thought,” he says. such as launch customer Singapore that may change shortly. Lufthansa Technik’s research also shows a strong correla- c Airlines—returning its first A380 in “About 15 EU member states have allowed temporary use of tion between the risk of corrosion and microbiology layers in Grounded late 2017, before the first superjumbo Biobor JF in order to help European operators cope with their the contaminated area. The reason, he explains, is the forma- was dismantled about two years later. high volume of parked aircraft,” says Laude. “The industry is tion of well-adhering biofilm zones. “The survival capabilities Several widebody stalwarts are set to exit Guthorn expects these moves to be- working on future biocides that will have to be assessed by of biofilms are remarkable, since water and humidity protect the global fleet post-COVID-19 come more common in the future. GE and other aircraft, engine and APU OEMs, and approved them against any toxic and biocidal attacks, enabling them to “While there will surely be some by local governmental authorities as well.” attack the tank wall through acidic micro-channels formed James Pozzi London entrepreneurs with interesting busi- Christian Siry, head of Lufthansa Technik’s Central Mate- within the biofilm,” says Siry. “The mixing of biocides with the ness models proposed in the coming rials Technologies unit in Germany, says problems with mi- fuel is not resolving the problem once the biofilm formation he novel coronavirus has led “The current pandemic has se - years that may find a mission for the crobial buildup can occur when fuel tanks constructed of has been established.” many carriers worldwide to re- verely impacted international travel A380, we expect the vast majority of aluminum alloys are filled with jet fuel. Problems from micro- Siry adds that Lufthansa Technik and the University of Tadjust their fleet plans to pre - demand, particularly the large-cabin these aircraft to simply be retired and bial contamination do not arise from “individual planktonic Hamburg have started a research project to develop a more serve liquidity and streamline their segment of the market,” says Adam parted- out,” he says. microbes” in the fuel itself but from the biofilm growing at the accurate method for early detection of all microbiological con- operations. Given the cost of oper - Guthorn, partner at the Alton Avia- Sebastian Podwojewski, a spokes- interface of condensation water and fuel and from biofilm at tamination. It also allows for classifying the contamination as ating older, maintenance-intensive tion Consultancy. “The A380, as the man for German asset manager the bottom of the tank, he says. critical or not critical. widebody aircraft during a period of world’s largest commercial passenger Dr. Peters, tells Aviation Week that “Corrosion occurs mainly on the bottom of the fuel tank “The employment of adjusted DNA technology considers soft travel demand, some casualties of aircraft, has been more negatively to date, four A380s have been handed below the growing biofilm. If not detected and removed at an the whole environment of the airplane operation—rather than the pandemic have not been surpris- impacted than any other type, with back to their respective investment early phase, it can lead to large defective zones,” Siry explains. fuel testing only—as an indirect indication of the fuel system ing. Older widebodies earmarked for several national flag carriers recently companies by airlines. While hope for “Fuel filter clogging may take place with potential impact on microbial contamination problem,” he says. “Thus, a compre- retirement, including the Boeing 747 announcing full retirements of their a secondary market for the A380 has fuel flow integrity, and the fuel quantity indication system may hensive fuel filter analysis and other fuel system components and the few remaining MD-80s, have A380 fleets,” he notes. all but disappeared, given the push show signs of fuel quantity fluctuation.” have already supported early warning indications,” he says. toward smaller, more fuel-efficient, Siry also points out that in some cases there are signs of The next part of the research is developing an “improved long-range aircraft such as the 787 microbial infestation in other fuel system components, such cleaning approach to ensure the reliable removal of the bio- and the A350, Podwojewski believes as high-precision, fuel-wetted flight control units. “A closer film contamination.”c AIR FRANCE some of the aircraft’s components will be sourced back into the market to help service the remaining active Air France operated its first A380 in 2009 but recently retired its Aircraft & Engine Marketplace remaining aircraft. fleet. “As the overall fleet of A380 aircraft is aging, and as further 12- year checks will become due on more of these aircraft, we see reasonable demand for spare parts in the near future,” he says. Angus McKay, an aviation principal at consultancy ICF, agrees that there will be some aftermarket demand but believes it will be narrow. “There will seen their exit from fleets accelerated. Air France, the first European air- be some limited use of major compo- Older variants of the Boeing 777 and line to operate the aircraft, retired its nents and subassemblies for the used Airbus A330 have also been jettisoned last A380 in June, having once oper- market, including landing-gear sets more quickly as a result of the crisis. ated as many as 10. Pre-pandemic, it and auxiliary power units, but again, Placing Your Assets Made Easy While relatively young in compari- had intended to phase them out by the market will be constrained by a son, having entered service only in 2022. Lufthansa, which has already small operating fleet, limited lifespan It has never been easier or more cost-effective to move your aircraft, 2007, the Airbus A380 looks set to offloaded half its 14 A380s, does not and low utilization,” he says. see a similar destiny, with its fleet size expect to fly the remaining airframes McKay believes that the after - engines/APUs, and/or parts inventories through SpeedNews, the most likely to be drastically reduced post- until at least 2022 and meanwhile will market for the aircraft, valued at $2.7 efficient way to get your available assets in front of the right audience. COVID-19. The fate of the A380 was keep them in deep storage. Outside billion for 2020 pre-COVID-19 by the effectively sealed in early 2019 when its of Europe, the future of the aircraft Aviation Week MRO & Fleet Fore - For more information, contact manufacturer announced plans to stop in the fleets of Etihad, Qatar Air - cast, will be even more limited once Steve Costley production by 2021 because of low cus- ways and Thai Airways has also been the crisis subsides. “In broad terms, tomer demand. As of May 2020, there the subject of discussion since the the aftermarket for the A380, already [email protected] were approximately 228 of the aircraft COVID- 19 outbreak. parlous, is likely to become more dire +1 424-465-6509 in service with 14 operators, according In the few years before the Airbus as utilization for the type dwindles and to Airbus. announcement ending A380 produc- MRO activities decline,” he says. c

MRO24 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO25 Products and Services Cabin Cargo Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago

1. Cargo Combos

Company: HAECO Cabin Solutions Specifications: HAECO Cabin Solutions is offering four adaptations for carrying cargo in the passenger cabin, which it says can be combined for both single- and twin-aisle aircraft to achieve “an ideal operational payload.” The first two allow carrying up to 240 lb. of cargo either on top of existing economy seats or on the floor in between rows of seats. It is also offering an all-in-one seat frame that installs in economy seat tracks and can hold 500 lb., and a palletized variant that sits on the cabin floor and can hold 1,000 lb. HAECO says it has been in discussions with 1 at least 50 airlines globally about the modules, including a launch customer in Asia, and that cargo conversions. The containers, which demand is rising. come in five sizes and are equipped with a marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 2 smoke detector, are designed to temporar- company/haeco-cabin-solutions ily replace passenger seats and carry up to 1,870 lb. of cargo. The companies say that a 2. 777 ‘Preighters’ typical Airbus A330 cabin could be converted in 24 hr. and will hold 36 containers. These are Company: Austrian Technik currently designed for Airbus A330/A340 and Specifications: Austrian Technik has Boeing 767/777 cabins, but the companies performed temporary conversions of two are planning to upgrade the modification for Boeing 777 aircraft from passenger to cargo other aircraft types and size variations. Earlier configurations to help Austrian Airlines this year, the companies also launched a transport more cargo during the COVID-19 cargo seat-bag product that enables cargo to crisis. To create these temporary “preighters,” 3 be carried on seats in narrowbody cabins. Austrian Technik mechanics removed 270 of marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 306 passenger seats from all travel classes in company/colibri-aero each aircraft, including disconnecting inflight entertainment-system wiring, which took 4. Airbus Cargo Modification approximately 500 hr. to complete per aircraft. Austrian says the conversions increase freight Company: Airbus capacity by around 35%, and the “preight- Specifications: Airbus has developed a modi- ers” can be converted back to the passenger fication for A330- and A350-family aircraft format once travel demand increases. that enables airlines to install freight pallets marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 4 directly onto cabin floor seat tracks. Packaged company/austrian-technik as an Airbus Service Bulletin, the modification includes removal of economy-class seats 3. Cargo Containers and inflight entertainment, installation of cargo pallets and associated safety equipment, and Company: Colibri Aero/J&C Aero reinstallation of the original passenger cabin Specifications: Colibri Aero and J&C Aero elements once airlines choose to revert back have developed cargo containers for wide- to passenger operations. Airbus says the body passenger cabins that enable quick modification facilitates quicker, easier loading/

Go to marketplace.aviationweek.com for more information.

MRO26 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO Products and Services

unloading and reduces wear and tear on seats fixing cargo boxes on seats with special straps, compared to solutions that entail loading 5 removal of passenger seats and installation of Cabin Cargo cargo onto seats. medical stretchers on various aircraft types. Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Magnetic MRO is performing these modifica- company/airbus tions at its Tallinn, Estonia, base or at client locations as travel is allowed, but it is also 5. Fast-Tracked Freighters offering installation kits to customers so modi- 1. Cargo Combos fications can be performed by their own teams. Company: Lufthansa Technik Several modifications have been completed Company: HAECO Cabin Solutions Specifications: Earlier this year Lufthansa for clients in Europe, Africa and Asia since the Specifications: HAECO Cabin Solutions is Technik (LHT) fast-tracked efforts to gain COVID-19 crisis started, and Magnetic MRO offering four adaptations for carrying cargo regulatory approval for passenger-to-cargo says it has more in the pipeline. in the passenger cabin, which it says can be modifications due to high interest from air- 6 marketplace.aviationweek.com/ combined for both single- and twin-aisle airlines. The MRO has more than 15 projects for company/magnetic-mro craft to achieve “an ideal operational payload.” various aircraft types in the pipeline, including The first two allow carrying up to 240 lb. of Airbus A330-300 and A380 aircraft. It is 8. Full Freighter Conversions cargo either on top of existing economy seats now targeting supplemental type certificates or on the floor in between rows of seats. It (STC) for all major aircraft types, which it Company: Aeronautical Engineers Inc. is also offering an all-in-one seat frame that hopes to have by September. For now, it is Specifications: For airlines looking to perma- installs in economy seat tracks and can hold offering tailsign-specific engineering orders, nently rethink fleet operations, Aeronautical 500 lb., and a palletized variant that sits which it says customers can transfer to STCs Engineers Inc. (AEI) designs, engineers and on the cabin floor and can hold 1,000 lb. later without major adjustments. certifies passenger-to-freighter conversions, HAECO says it has been in discussions with 1 marketplace.aviationweek.com/ manufactures parts and partners with MROs at least 50 airlines globally about the modules, company/lufthansa-technik to install conversions at its authorized AEI including a launch customer in Asia, and that cargo conversions. The containers, which Conversion Centers across North America demand is rising. come in five sizes and are equipped with a 6. Quick-Turn Conversions and China. AEI says it has seen an uptick marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 2 smoke detector, are designed to temporar- in demand for Boeing 737 Classic freighter company/haeco-cabin-solutions ily replace passenger seats and carry up to Company: Collins Aerospace modifications since the COVID-19 outbreak, 1,870 lb. of cargo. The companies say that a Specifications: Collins Aerospace has and it has booked 10 firm orders for 737 2. 777 ‘Preighters’ typical Airbus A330 cabin could be converted developed a quick-turn solution to convert conversions to start work this year, including in 24 hr. and will hold 36 containers. These are passenger aircraft for cargo; it is available projects already begun for AerCaribe, Airwork Company: Austrian Technik currently designed for Airbus A330/A340 and for any passenger aircraft model and can be and Allied Air. AEI has performed more than Specifications: Austrian Technik has Boeing 767/777 cabins, but the companies completed in as little as seven days. Collins 500 passenger-to-freighter conversions and performed temporary conversions of two are planning to upgrade the modification for provides the engineering and certification ser- developed more than 130 FAA-approved Boeing 777 aircraft from passenger to cargo other aircraft types and size variations. Earlier vices, kit parts required for modification and supplemental type certificates. configurations to help Austrian Airlines this year, the companies also launched a on-site technical support to perform the con- marketplace.aviationweek.com/ transport more cargo during the COVID-19 cargo seat-bag product that enables cargo to version, which entails removing seats to allow 7 company/aeronautical-engineers-inc crisis. To create these temporary “preighters,” 3 be carried on seats in narrowbody cabins. a higher volume of cargo carriage on the main Austrian Technik mechanics removed 270 of marketplace.aviationweek.com/ deck floor. Its Integration Engineering facility 306 passenger seats from all travel classes in company/colibri-aero in Everett, Washington, offers engineering 8 each aircraft, including disconnecting inflight order solutions for rapid conversion and entertainment-system wiring, which took 4. Airbus Cargo Modification supplemental type certification for cabin approximately 500 hr. to complete per aircraft. modifications to carry greater weight and vari- Austrian says the conversions increase freight Company: Airbus ous cargo types as demand changes. Collins capacity by around 35%, and the “preight- Specifications: Airbus has developed a modi- says aircraft can be easily converted back to ers” can be converted back to the passenger fication for A330- and A350-family aircraft passenger configuration as desired. format once travel demand increases. that enables airlines to install freight pallets marketplace.aviationweek.com/ marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 4 directly onto cabin floor seat tracks. Packaged company/collins-aerospace company/austrian-technik as an Airbus Service Bulletin, the modification includes removal of economy-class seats 7. Medical Cargo Mods 3. Cargo Containers and inflight entertainment, installation of cargo pallets and associated safety equipment, and Company: Magnetic MRO Company: Colibri Aero/J&C Aero reinstallation of the original passenger cabin Specifications: Magnetic MRO’s Part 21J Specifications: Colibri Aero and J&C Aero elements once airlines choose to revert back team is offering cabin modifications for have developed cargo containers for wide- to passenger operations. Airbus says the COVID-19 medical cargo transportation in body passenger cabins that enable quick modification facilitates quicker, easier loading/ passenger cabins. The modifications include

Go to marketplace.aviationweek.com for more information. Go to marketplace.aviationweek.com for more information.

MRO26 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 MRO27 O Viewpoint By TED COLBERT Ted Colbert III is The Boeing Co. executive vice president and president and CEO of Boeing Global Services Needed: Diversity selves the same question. Like many companies, we’re not yet where Make our industry better through inclusion we want and need to be, but we’re taking intentional steps to ensure ight now, there are hopeful signs that we are in the midst of we’re moving in the right direc- a cultural wake-up call. We’re openly acknowledging that tion. For example, Boeing has made R investments in our future technical the racial inequities of our past still linger while outlining spe- workforce through a partnership cific steps we can take to heal, learn and grow as a society. Fol- with the Thurgood Marshall College lowing several recent and highly visible acts of racism, includ- Fund, the nation’s largest organiza- ing the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, many people tion representing the black college community. The program intro- are beginning to better understand the daily struggles of those duces students to Boeing’s culture who aren’t part of the majority. And throughout the world, a and career paths, offers scholar- broad spectrum of people across the public and private sectors ships and provides internships for are speaking up with increased purpose against discrimination. outstanding students attending Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU). We also offer These actions are to be commend- most influential circles and leaders a competitive immersion program ed. Combating racism and all forms of of our industry broadly represent that brings together the brightest discrimination begins with a society the racial diversity of our custom- students from our partner HBCUs that agrees fundamental human rights ers, either commercial or govern- and allows them to explore possible should be granted and ment? If not, why? aerospace careers. protected equally—and Countless studies Despite this progress, there is it is up to all of us to We’ve made have shown that di- more we can and should do as an make clear what we verse teams produce industry to make our teams more stand for and what we progress, but better outcomes, lead racially diverse, including think- will no longer accept. to better innova- ing globally when recruiting talent, Within the aerospace we are simply tion and increase a creating the environment for an and defense industry, company’s bottom inclusive workplace for people the case for attracting, missing an line. Diverse work- from all backgrounds, investing developing and retain- opportunity forces are better at further in educational programs ing a diverse workforce innovating and solv- that inspire our young people and and creating a safe en- to be better. ing problems; they providing students from all walks of vironment that values also produce higher life with clear and direct pathways unique perspectives, sales revenues, more to STEM- and STEAM-related skills and experiences could not be customers, larger market shares and careers. As leaders, we must create stronger. We are a global industry greater relative profits than less di- the conditions so that anyone of any that competes and thrives at the verse companies. In 2018, McKinsey race can take advantage of the chal- forefront of new ideas and technolo- & Co. found that companies in the lenging and exciting opportunities gies. Our lifeblood is innovation. top quartile for racial and ethnic in aerospace and defense. We are called upon to innovate and diversity were 33% more likely to If the first half of 2020 has taught operate to make the world better— have financial returns above their us anything, it’s that the world con- no small task! national industry norms. And com- tinues to change rapidly and that To continue delivering novel prod- panies in the top quartile for gender seeking to understand another’s ucts and solutions to our diverse diversity were 21% more likely to perspective and showing empathy customers we need a workforce with have financial returns above their for their experience is a step in the broad experience and exposure to respective national industry medi- right direction. With this period of new and different ways of think- ans. However, this is about much unprecedented uncertainty, now is ing. Yet the lagging representation more than crunching numbers and precisely the time when we need the of diverse populations throughout making a business case. The real best ideas, regardless of who has our industry, at all levels and in motivator is knowing that creating them, to solve increasingly complex all disciplines, is keeping us from a diverse and inclusive workforce is challenges—for everyone’s benefit. reaching our full potential. We’ve the only right thing to do. I hope you’ll join me in champion- made progress, but we are simply So what is holding us back? I ing new approaches that make our missing an opportunity to be better. certainly don’t have all the answers, industry better, more diverse and We have to ask ourselves: Do the and at Boeing we’re asking our- more inclusive. c

MRO28 INSIDEMRO JULY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Viewpoint By TED COLBERT AETS SECTO Ted Colbert III is The Boeing Co. MRO Products and Services executive vice president and president and CEO of Boeing viti ee Mrete is an online service that connects yers d seers in the MRO industry. Become a power Global Services user by registering at marketplace.aviationweek.com/register. Registration is FREE, enabling you to nd hundreds of products like the ones featured below and to connect with more than 8000 companies. You can create a personalized save list, learn Needed: Diversity selves the same question. Like many about companies’ specialties, get contact details and request information at marketplace.aviationweek.com. companies, we’re not yet where To advertise in the Marketplace, contact iet iti t r eietitivitiee Make our industry better through inclusion we want and need to be, but we’re taking intentional steps to ensure MO AsiaPacifi c irtual Setember 2224 22 Oercoming nrecedented Change and the ight now, there are hopeful signs that we are in the midst of we’re moving in the right direc- Challenge o hat ies Ahead While live events are on hold, virtual events will provide digital content, a cultural wake-up call. We’re openly acknowledging that tion. For example, Boeing has made networking, and a marketplace where the airline, OEM and MRO supplier communities can discover and R investments in our future technical showcase new products and innovations, connect with and source new and existing business partners, the racial inequities of our past still linger while outlining spe- workforce through a partnership and share knowledge and best practices. Our virtual platform breaks down physical barriers and builds cific steps we can take to heal, learn and grow as a society. Fol- with the Thurgood Marshall College virtual communities and ensures that MO AsiaPacifi c and AeroEngines AsiaPacifi c continue to lowing several recent and highly visible acts of racism, includ- Fund, the nation’s largest organiza- deliver the same high-quality content that our audience has come to expect and will deliver information on the region in terms of industry recovery from COVID-19 crisis, workforce furloughs, layoffs, shop closings, ing the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, many people tion representing the black college community. The program intro- and survival strategies for smaller MRO’s and third-party MRO services. To learn more about the irtual are beginning to better understand the daily struggles of those duces students to Boeing’s culture eents and register to attend lease isit mroasia.aiationeek.com. who aren’t part of the majority. 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AIRCRAFT ETRIO COMA AIRLIE ACCEOR ERICE CO. LLC AA A AATO ATAES At Aircraft Extrusion Company Overhauls performed with integrity in mind. Strategic Solutions For The Aviation Aftermarket DER Approved Major Repairs that Reduces Costs we live and breathe aluminum extruded profi les and tube. For 20 years Airline Accessory OVER 26 MILLION PARTS Major Repairs share the Our team combines 30+ Service has provided some of BEST-IN-INDUSTRY conformity of OEM Designs. years of product and industry the worlds fi nest airline and PRICING AvAir provides AVI is authorized by the FAA knowledge with custom corporate aircraft operators expert Asset Management, to repair evacuation slides. online tools and proprietary with a quality, on time, cost helping aircraft owners Major Repairs must pass parts databases to offer the effective alternative to the maximize the return on their the same rigorous quality fastest and easiest way to fi nd large shop overhaul service. aviation assets. Inventory is & testing requirements extruded shapes. We offer the “personalized made available to the company’s customers worldwide who view as OEM parts, but are service” approach to providing AvAir as a trusted provider. signifi cantly lower in price, reduced turn around times, & extend component overhaul service. the units operational life. .airlineaccessor.co httpsarketplace. .aair.aero .aiaiation.com .aircraftetrusion.co Galley Inserts/Safety Equipment • aviationeek.co htts//marketlace.aia htts//marketlace.aiationeek. httpsarketplace.aviationeek.co Components • Electrical • Hydraulics/ productoverhauls-per- Aftermarket Services • tioneek.com/roduct/ Maintenance, Repair & com/roduct/deraroed MRO Americas 2020 copanaircraft-etrusion-copan Pneumatics • Landing Gear/Wheels/Brakes fored-integrit-ind Asset Management strategicsolutionsaiationatermarket Overhaul maorreairsreducescosts

AMARILLO ECOOMIC EELOMET CORORATIO ARTEMI ELECTROIC LLC & AATO AES A HEES T COPOATE Amarillo: All Business, No Bull! DMSMS and Legacy Electronics/Avionics through MRO Aircraft Brakes and Wheels by B & W Aviation Revolutionize Assembly, Maintenance & Training

In attitude and approach, At Artemis we specialize in B & W Aviation provides BILT® 3D Interactive Amarillo is unlike most cities. Overhauling, Redesigning, top-of-the-line maintenance Intelligent Instructions We offer the strategies and Reverse Engineering and for your aircraft brakes • Training - assembly - installation resources you and your Manufacturing of Legacy and wheels; also, we - maintenance - repair business need, including: Electronics and Avionics for offer outright and fl at-rate • Found at The Home Depot, Military Platforms Worldwide. exchange programs tailored Walmart, Sam’s Club, • Start to fi nish project management Our Agility and Forward Thinking to fi t your requirements, Costco & more • No bureaucratic red tape allow us to mitigate DMSMS making us leaders in the • Operating in 174 countries & 12 languages • A labor force that lives for hard work issues that allow the Warfi ghter industry. Furthermore, we work with top manufacturers, assuring • More than 130 brands to achieve Maximum Readiness. you the best quality and effi ciency. • Not limited like paper & videos

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AEROREAIR COR AITROL ETO A CC TECHOOES CEMSA AeroRepair, when experience matters Temperature, speed and pressure sensors and services Avionics Testing Redeﬁ ned. CEMB Balancing Machines for the Aerospace Industry

Wheel/Tire, brake and battery Auxitrol Weston is a Streamline your avionics radio CEMB is the only R&O programs tailored to world leading supplier testing process with CCX balancing company to support our customer’s speciﬁ c of engine and aircraft Technologies’ T-RX™ Avionics integrate an automatic and unique line maintenance sensors and services to Radio and Pulse Testers (T- correction unit into our operations. Turn-key service. both original equipment RX). A giant leap forward, our aerospace balancing manufacturers and portable tablets feature large, machines. This aftermarket MRO sunlight-readable color touch integration has provided shops and airlines. We provide a wide range of highly reliable screens. And the easy-to-use, our customers with a sensors including high accuracy temperature, speed and intuitive interface helps save tremendous advantage pressure sensors. time and money. in their production of engine components. .aerorepaircorp.co .transdig.co .cembusa.com Maintenance, Repair httpsarketplace.avia- httpsarketplace.aviationeek. cctechnologies.com htts//marketlace.aiationeek. & Overhaul • Landing tioneek.coproduct Maintenance, Repair & coproductteperature-speed- Tools & Equipment • htts//marketlace.aiationeek.com/ Tools & Equipment • com/roduct/cembbalancing Gear/Wheels/Brakes aerorepair-hen-eperience-atters Overhaul and-pressure-sensors-and-services Test Equipment roduct/aionicstestingredefi ned Tools machinesaerosaceindustr

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COR AIATIO IC. ELTA TECOLOIE We deliver regional aviation to the world. Aerospace Composite Ovens and Heat Treat Furnaces

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ELIT TEM OF AMERICA MCLEA OERATIO F MF LLC A/C Maintenance, Engineering, Technical Solutions Complex metal forming and welding specialists

Elbit Systems of America is FB is a contract manufacturer a global tip-to-tail solutions specializing in complex provider. We specialize in sheetmetal forming, commercial and military mid- hydroforming, welding, heat sized single or twin engine treating, vacuum brazing, laser turbo propfan aircraft and cutting machining, CNC provide sustainment and machining, FPI, Water jet specialized upgrademodifi cation solutions. We are a MRO and cutting in-house tool design Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) provider. fabrication and assembly. NADCAP accredited.

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COR AIATIO IC. ELTA TECOLOIE OA EPMET COMPA C. HACO STES We deliver regional aviation to the world. Aerospace Composite Ovens and Heat Treat Furnaces Global Industrial, Your Rebound Partner HABCO MRO – New FAA Repair Station Capability

Chorus is a global Veteran Family Businesses around the HABCO MRO - a Certifi ed provider of integrated Owned and operated, world are adapting to 1 CFR part 15 Repair regional aviation DELTA H provides new practices to include Station offers maintenance, solutions. As both a Industrial Heat reinforcing health and repair and overhaul services large fl eet operator Treating Furnaces and safety measures for all under Limited Accessories and maintenance Composite Curing employees and social for Airframe and Engine organization, we provide a full suite of regional aviation support Ovens designed distancing confi gurations Components. HABCO MRO component repair capabilities services that encompasses every stage of an aircraft’s lifecycle. exclusively for the for offi ce spaces. include fl ow, pressure, hydraulic and accessories. How can we help you aerospace and defense industries. Talk to us about AMS2750E, BAC521, Nadcap Accreditation, Aluminum, Steel, Titanium Ask us about R3 Heat Treat, and Composite Curing chorusaviation.co .ELTA-.COM .globalindustrial.com .habco.bi httpsarketplace.avia- httpsarketplace.aviationeek. htts//marketlace.aia Calibration/Weighing Services htts//marketlace.aiationeek. Maintenance, Repair & tioneek.coproduct Maintenance, Repair & coproductaerospace-coposite- tioneek.com/roduct/ • Ground Support Equipment • com/roduct/habcomrone Overhaul e-deliver-regional-aviation-orld Overhaul ovens-and-heat-treat-furnaces Tools & Equipment globalindustrialourreboundartner Test Equipment • Tools aareairstationcaabilit

ELIT TEM OF AMERICA MCLEA OERATIO F MF LLC H.. E COMPA ETO OCATO SECE C A/C Maintenance, Engineering, Technical Solutions Complex metal forming and welding specialists H.B. Fuller Engineering MAXIMIZE AVIATION PARTS & PROFITS Adhesives Aerospace Elbit Systems of America is FB is a contract manufacturer group manufactures FIND WHAT O NEED a global tip-to-tail solutions specializing in complex interior, structural - utilize our IPC libraries to provider. We specialize in sheetmetal forming, and composite adhesives, such as seam sealers, edge fi lling, determine which airframe and commercial and military mid- hydroforming, welding, heat low density void fi llers and more. Royal brand aerospace or engine can deliver the most sized single or twin engine treating, vacuum brazing, laser polysulfi de sealants offer outstanding performance in fuel profi t per part to your business. turbo propfan aircraft and cutting machining, CNC tank, fuselage and access door sealing. Adhesive Packaging provide sustainment and machining, FPI, Water jet Specialties provides custom packaging and delivery solutions for SELL WHAT O HAVE - expand your reach to global specialized upgrademodifi cation solutions. We are a MRO and cutting in-house tool design adhesives, sealants, coatings, lubricants and more. customers and access a highly targeted market of motivated Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) provider. fabrication and assembly. buyers. NADCAP accredited. Free subscription at ILSMART.COM .elitaerica.co httpsarketplace.aviationeek. .ffg.co .hbuller.com .Smart.com Manufacturing & coproductc-aintenance- Maintenance, Repair & httpsarketplace.aviation- htts//marketlace.aiationeek. htts//marketlace.aiationeek.com/ Distributing engineering-technical-solutions Overhaul eek.coproductf-fg-llc Aerospace materials com/coman/hbullercoman Aerospace Materials roduct/maimieaiationartsrofi ts

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LOAL REE TECOLOIE COR MICROAC ITRIE Luminous Aviation Cleaning Solutions Supplier of mission critical sensors and systems

Non-toxic, non-corrosive, VOC-free Over 50 years in the nanotechnology for interiorexterior design and manufacture cleaning. Luminous Exterior is engineered of safety of fl ight, avionics, to provide aerodynamic support and position sensing, liquid reduce drag with each consecutive management and application while interior clean, protects, contaminant detection, and disinfects all hard surfaces inside the and power distribution cabin leaving an immaculate shine. components and systems. Experts in providing specifi c solutions based engineering capabilities to solve specifi c customer needs.

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MI-TATE AEROACE IC. M TET TEM Aerospace Hardware and Hose Assemblies The next generation of Loop Resistance Testers

MSA is an authorized fabricating The brand new ExLRT distributor for Parker Stratofl ex with revolutionizes the design vast experience in handling fi ttings by downsizing Loop and assemblies as well as Stratofl ex’s Resistance Testing into size uick-Disconnects coupling, Symetrics small enough to wear on and Dynatube lines. the hip and adding intrinsic safety and weather proof We are also a premier provider of serviceability. It’s as easy to aerospace hardware including AN, MS, operate as a DMM. NAS, BAC, HI-Loks Cherry hardware and installation tools. .idstateaero.co .ktest.co Airframes • Connectors/Fasteners httpsarketplace.avia- httpsarketplace.avia- • Hardware • Hydraulics/ tioneek.coproduct tioneek.coproduct Pneumatics • Parts Distributor reliailit-accurac-epertise Tools & Equipment net-generation-loop-resistance-testers

E EARI CO. IC. OE EIE LLC NES Bearing Co., Inc. REPAIR -LEASE - TEST - INVEST

Napoleon Engineering Odyssey Engines, LLC Services is a major S provides MRO support, bearing manufacturer engine leasing, fi eld of OEM and PMA ball service, engine testing, and roller bearings for material management the aerospace industry. support and asset management. Our core focus is to repair, buy, Additionally, NES is a sell, test and lease engines. We take pride in being your one leader in bearing reverse engineering services, offering reverse stop shop for securing all your CFM5, CF and JT8D solutions. engineering of type certifi ed aircraft ball and roller bearings in support of FAA-PMA certifi cation.

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LOAL REE TECOLOIE COR MICROAC ITRIE OPTOMEC OTTO STMET SECE C. Luminous Aviation Cleaning Solutions Supplier of mission critical sensors and systems Maximize your ROI with automated laser cladding. Otto Instrument Service - Complete MRO Services Commercial and Military Non-toxic, non-corrosive, VOC-free Over 50 years in the 180 ROI, 1.7 year pay-back nanotechnology for interiorexterior design and manufacture for automated repair of gas Founded in 19, Otto cleaning. Luminous Exterior is engineered of safety of fl ight, avionics, turbine blades including titanium Instrument Service, Inc. is a to provide aerodynamic support and position sensing, liquid compressor blades. Less world leading independent reduce drag with each consecutive management and post-processing and superior MRO service provider, earning application while interior clean, protects, contaminant detection, material properties compared to a reputation for providing and disinfects all hard surfaces inside the and power distribution manual TI welding. superior overhaul, repair cabin leaving an immaculate shine. components and systems. manufacturing services for Experts in providing specifi c solutions based engineering instrumentation, avionics electrical accessories. Otto is a capabilities to solve specifi c customer needs. licensed authorized Honeywell Service Center.

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MI-TATE AEROACE IC. M TET TEM PACC AEO TECH PACC TOO Aerospace Hardware and Hose Assemblies The next generation of Loop Resistance Testers Cockpit Window Overhaul Got FOD? We Can Help!

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E EARI CO. IC. OE EIE LLC PATOT COMPOETS PEOMACE PASTCS NES Bearing Co., Inc. REPAIR -LEASE - TEST - INVEST PATRIOT COMPONENTS Non-marring Aircraft Maintenance Tools EXCEEDING YOUR EXPECTATIONS Napoleon Engineering Odyssey Engines, LLC Performance Plastics, Services is a major S provides MRO support, We are service minded EnduroSharp bearing manufacturer engine leasing, fi eld professionals operating as product line consists of of OEM and PMA ball service, engine testing, service industry leaders, nonmetallic tools used and roller bearings for material management our service product is to remove adhesives, the aerospace industry. support and asset management. Our core focus is to repair, buy, client centric. We believe in sealants, and coatings Additionally, NES is a sell, test and lease engines. We take pride in being your one supporting our clients needs from aircraft structures. leader in bearing reverse engineering services, offering reverse stop shop for securing all your CFM5, CF and JT8D solutions. through affordable quality repairs to increase client ROI, this for Providing aerospace engineering of type certifi ed aircraft ball and roller bearings in the betterment of all involved in todays market. maintenance professionals an adhesive removal tool that holds support of FAA-PMA certifi cation. an effective edge, without damaging composite substructures.

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& AMCS AP E POTECTO C. World Leader in Air Cycle Rapid Fire Protection Inc. Machine Technology Rapid Fire Protection Inc. R&D Dynamics offers the most & AdTech Alarm, is a ﬁ re cost effective, low risk solution to suppression and alarm your replacement part needs by contractor specializing in hazard utilizing our 27 years of engineering analysis, design, engineering, experience, designing and fabricating fabrication, installation and for the OEMS and testing in inspection services with turnkey accordance with the FAA’s stringent capabilities to supply all of your requirements.We now provide Overhaul and Repair capability industrial ﬁ re suppression needs with our 145 Repair Facility, Hartford Aero Maintenance. for the aviation sector.

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SPE T AS TEAM TEAS Grab Heat by the Horns Your MRO operations will soar in Texas!

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SPE T AS TEAM TEAS ELOCIT AEROACE ILI Grab Heat by the Horns Your MRO operations will soar in Texas! Trusted Repair with Velocity VP Buildings

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Or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 COMMERCIAL AVIATION THE BIG GAMBLE > MORE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS FALL AND MARKETS REOPEN Totally Restrictive

> EXPENSIVE RESTART PHASE FULLPartially OF RISKS Restrictive

> IATA WARNS ITS FORECAST MAY NotHAVE Restrictive BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC

Latest updates currently under review Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Helen Massy-Beresford Paris, Adrian Schofield Auckland and Ben Goldstein Washington

he airline industry is used to some level of guesswork, even in good times. No one really knows how demand port Association (IATA) warns that a will evolve, whether a new route will actually perform recent rise in COVID-19 cases led to a according to expectations or what the response by weakening of bookings in the second T half of June and could have a severe competitors will be. No matter how analytical the approach is, impact on the expected recovery of no matter how experienced the network planning department, air travel. some experiments will always fail. A COVID-19 outbreak discovered in Beijing on June 11 has shown what In good times, airlines typically The path forward for commercial airlines might expect even in countries have the financial wherewithal to aviation depends on one factor first that have the pandemic largely under deal with some level of underper - and foremost: an airline comeback control. News of the outbreak prompt- forming markets. But now, as the in- based on the return of traffic. Every- ed outsiders to avoid travel to Beijing, dustry takes its first steps to emerge thing is tied to it. When that regains while the city’s government forbade from an unheard-of crisis, it faces the traction, airlines will be able to afford people from zones of high infection worst possible combination: There to pay for maintenance and spare to leave. The authorities also discour- is no financial margin left for wrong parts, resume airport and air traffic aged departures by people from other bets on capacity, pricing and network control payments and bring back pilots parts of Beijing and made them condi- rebuilding, and the uncertainty about and cabin crew from short-time work tional on having had recent, negative when, where and how demand might schemes that, in many countries, have infection tests. return is greater than ever. protected them from being laid off for By the last week of June, Beijing Only over the past few weeks have now. If things go really well, airlines Capital International Airport was some encouraging signs begun to may even consider taking delivery of handling only about a quarter as many emerge on a broader scale, probably aircraft in greater numbers—aircraft flights as it had three weeks earlier. good enough to call the short-term ordered when some executives imag- IATA Chief Economist Brian trend a recovery, but not good enough ined continued profitability at least Pearce says the recent increase is to call it stable upward development. until their own retirements. leading the association to be “cau- And even as traffic begins to slowly Unfortunately, while prospects for tious about prospects for the next few come back, airlines will soon face the the airline industry differ by region, months.” If it continues, it could delay winter season, when most carriers lose worldwide there is reason for renewed the ending of travel restrictions for money even when business is booming. concern. The International Air Trans- international journeys “beyond what

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION THE

OPTIMISTIC > Better business con dence indica- tors translate into greater demand for ying. BIG With COVID-19 better contained, > supported by an e cient vaccine from early 2021, leisure travel returns more quickly than expected as GAMBLE airlines bene t from pent-up demand. > Airlines surviving with government help bene t from a consolidated > MORE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS FALL market; can establish higher pricing AND MARKETS REOPEN Totally Restrictive earlier. > Short-haul ying recovers almost fully > EXPENSIVE RESTART PHASE FULLPartially OF RISKS Restrictive in 2021; long-haul returns by 2023.

> IATA WARNS ITS FORECAST MAY NotHAVE Restrictive BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC NEUTRAL > More countries manage to contain the Latest updates currently under review Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Helen Massy-Beresford Paris, pandemic, and the industry’s health measures prove to be e cient. Adrian Schofield Auckland and Ben Goldstein Washington Restrictions on > Air travel returns to 40% below Interntionl TotallyAir Restrictive Trel 2019 levels by the end of 2020, he airline industry is used to some level of guesswork, recovering further in 2021. even in good times. No one really knows how demand Partially Restrictive port Association (IATA) warns that a > Long-haul ying remains severely will evolve, whether a new route will actually perform recent rise in COVID-19 cases led to a suppressed through 2020 but makes according to expectations or what the response by weakening of bookings in the second Totally Restrictive Not Restrictive a steep recovery in 2021. T half of June and could have a severe competitors will be. No matter how analytical the approach is, > A COVID-19 vaccine is created, though impact on the expected recovery of Partially Restrictive Latest updates currently under review the e ects of a global recession no matter how experienced the network planning department, air travel. continue to a ect demand. A COVID-19 outbreak discovered Not Restrictive some experiments will always fail. Source: ATA in Beijing on June 11 has shown what > Tra c returns to pre crisis levels by In good times, airlines typically The path forward for commercial airlines might expect even in countries we had expectedLatest updates in the currently forecast.” under reviewairlines have largely avoided bank- 2023; the industry makes its rst have the financial wherewithal to aviation depends on one factor first that have the pandemic largely under The European Union’s decision to ruptcies. “In the absence of substan- post-coronavirus pro t in 2022. deal with some level of underper - and foremost: an airline comeback control. News of the outbreak prompt- keep travel restrictions to the U.S. in tial government aid, it is very di cult forming markets. But now, as the in- based on the return of traffic. Every- ed outsiders to avoid travel to Beijing, place is one major point of concern, for airlines to survive,” says Pearce. PESSIMISTIC dustry takes its first steps to emerge thing is tied to it. When that regains while the city’s government forbade given that U.S. international flying Latin America is the most dramatic > Containing the further spread of from an unheard-of crisis, it faces the traction, airlines will be able to afford people from zones of high infection represents 37% of global demand, as case, where LATAM Airlines, Avianca COVID-19 takes longer than expected to leave. The authorities also discour- and Aeromexico all filed for bank- worst possible combination: There to pay for maintenance and spare measured in revenue passenger kilo- and a ects major air transport is no financial margin left for wrong parts, resume airport and air traffic aged departures by people from other meters (RPK). ruptcy within weeks. markets such as the U.S. bets on capacity, pricing and network control payments and bring back pilots parts of Beijing and made them condi- Pearce points out that there is a “Ultimately, until we have a vaccine, rebuilding, and the uncertainty about and cabin crew from short-time work tional on having had recent, negative large downside risk for the expect- one of the suppressors of demand for > Bookings weaken and international when, where and how demand might schemes that, in many countries, have infection tests. ed rebound in air travel. IATA so far travel will be the perception of risk travel restrictions remain in place return is greater than ever. protected them from being laid off for By the last week of June, Beijing forecasts demand to recover to a level on the plane,” says Patrick Edmond, longer or are reinstated. Only over the past few weeks have now. If things go really well, airlines Capital International Airport was around 36% below 2019 by year-end. managing director of consultancy > Tra c recovery is delayed and much some encouraging signs begun to may even consider taking delivery of handling only about a quarter as many But if the rise in novel coronavirus Altair Advisory. “Reassuring passen- weaker than forecast ; more airlines emerge on a broader scale, probably aircraft in greater numbers—aircraft flights as it had three weeks earlier. cases is not reversed and travel re- gers about safety is going to count for fail; aircraft production is cut further. good enough to call the short-term ordered when some executives imag- IATA Chief Economist Brian strictions remain in place, the actual at least as much as headline prices.” trend a recovery, but not good enough ined continued profitability at least Pearce says the recent increase is drop in air travel could be 53%. The number of COVID-19 cases, > Slow recovery begins only in 2021 to call it stable upward development. until their own retirements. leading the association to be “cau- According to an IATA analysis, which is rising particularly fast in after a vaccine reassures travelers. And even as traffic begins to slowly Unfortunately, while prospects for tious about prospects for the next few around 20% of countries are starting parts of the developing world and > A return to 2019 tra c levels is come back, airlines will soon face the the airline industry differ by region, months.” If it continues, it could delay to ease restrictions—but 65% remain the U.S., is not the only reason for achieved after 2023. winter season, when most carriers lose worldwide there is reason for renewed the ending of travel restrictions for completely closed. Where massive concern. While businesses expect a money even when business is booming. concern. The International Air Trans- international journeys “beyond what state bailouts have been put in place, V-shaped recovery of the economy in

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 3 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

general, that does not translate into have a natural advantage over their the years following the 2008 financial an equivalent rebound of air travel competitors with larger internation- crisis, when they expanded while net- demand, as it should in normal times. al networks. Prior to the pandemic, work carriers adhered to strict capac- “[Corporations] are still very cautious Southwest deployed roughly 5% of ca- ity discipline. Allegiant Air and Spirit about travel,” Pearce notes. But there pacity outside the country, compared Airlines are both targeting nearly flat “may be some upside surprises,” he to full-service carriers that devote as levels by year-end, while Frontier adds. In contrast to business confi- much as 40% of their capacity to inter- Airlines is aiming for 80-90%. ULCCs dence, consumer confidence is still national flying in normal years. such as Allegiant and Sun Country very low. For leisure travel to pick up Southwest expects to operate at Airlines will also benefit from low- in any significant way, the industry will nearly flat year-over-year capacity priced used aircraft. The CEOs of need to reverse such apprehensions. by year-end, indicating an aggressive both companies have said they will So far, IATA continues to predict strategy to capitalize on its domes- use them to source fleet growth and that the industry will return to profit- tic network and low-cost structure spare parts for their Airbus A320 and ability in 2022, with a relatively steep during the COVID-19 recovery. Delta Boeing 737 fleets, respectively. recovery of global airline traffic to a Air Lines, with far more exposure American Airlines and Delta have level 36% below 2019 by year-end and to battered corporate and long-haul already retired more than 350 aircraft 29% below 2019 in 2021. markets, plans to steadily grow its combined, including all of Ameri- Global traffic figures for May show domestic schedule back to 55-60% can’s A330s, Boeing 757s, 767s and a 91.3% reduction over last year, com- of last year’s levels by September, Embraer 190s and all of Delta’s MD- 88s, MD-90s and Boeing 777s. Unit- COVID-19 Impact on 2020 Air Trafﬁc ed has not retired any aircraft, but has parked hundreds temporarily while executives seek more clarity aseline on demand trends. In Europe, a re- eceber covery is underway. According to Euro- control data, the number of flights onside risk in the network was 12,742 on July 1, eceber about four times the level of just a week earlier. “The recovery is clearly January April July October January April July October gathering speed,” says Eurocon- Source: IATA trol CEO Eamonn Brennan. pared to a 94% drop in April. “May before taking a strategic pause while But that growth is still a drop in wasSource: not ATA quite as terrible as April. management evaluates fall demand the ocean compared to precoronavi- That’s about the best thing that can trends. rus levels, and airlines and consumers be said,” says IATA Director General American Airlines and United Air- alike are cautious about how the next and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. Essen- lines are planning to push their do- few weeks and months will play out. tially all of the recovery came from mestic flying above 50% in July and And not everyone benefits equally, domestic travel, particularly within August, respectively. Still, with so with UK-based airlines still struggling China. There was “no improvement much uncertainty surrounding the with quarantine rules while some, at all in international travel,” Pearce return of corporate and internation- such as Virgin Atlantic, desperately notes. IATA members also recorded al traffic, it is likely that the largest seek more equity. an all-time-low load factor of 50.7% for carriers will remain deep in negative “On the positive side, there is pent- the month, a decrease of 31 percentage year-over-year capacity territory until up demand coming into the summer. points compared to May 2019. spring 2021, when the base for com- Lots of people would like to be able to Beginning in June, though, many parison will also have been affected by go away on holiday,” says Edmond. “In airlines started rebuilding capacity. the pandemic. Europe the main driver this summer A bet was placed on the future. Ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCC) be- is going to be leisure, not business.” In the U.S., with international trav- lieve their domestic leisure focus and “We would expect a second el set to lag domestic in the absence low operating costs will allow them to [COVID- 19] wave, should it material- of a vaccine, domestic-focused carri- grow aggressively during the recov- ize, to be met with a more granular ers such as Southwest Airlines will ery period, a scenario reminiscent of approach by authorities instead of

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION general, that does not translate into have a natural advantage over their the years following the 2008 financial nation wide shutdowns,” says Bernstein such arrangements with China. More an equivalent rebound of air travel competitors with larger internation- crisis, when they expanded while net- analyst Daniel Roeska. “This should Top 10 Domestic of these are likely to emerge, first on a demand, as it should in normal times. al networks. Prior to the pandemic, work carriers adhered to strict capac- enable airlines to react proportional- Markets Globally bilateral basis and then multilaterally. “[Corporations] are still very cautious Southwest deployed roughly 5% of ca- ity discipline. Allegiant Air and Spirit ly and not bring the entire air travel Ranked by weekly seats The next step will be the development about travel,” Pearce notes. But there pacity outside the country, compared Airlines are both targeting nearly flat system in Europe to a standstill again.” of travel bubbles, which would allow “may be some upside surprises,” he to full-service carriers that devote as levels by year-end, while Frontier With demand for air travel tied for week of June 29 nonessential travel with few restric- adds. In contrast to business confi- much as 40% of their capacity to inter- Airlines is aiming for 80-90%. ULCCs closely to a country’s economic situ- Rank Market Country tions. The first of these could be es- dence, consumer confidence is still national flying in normal years. such as Allegiant and Sun Country ation, however, airlines are also going 1 Seoul-Jeju S. Korea tablished between Australia and New very low. For leisure travel to pick up Southwest expects to operate at Airlines will also benefit from low- to have to make huge concessions on Zealand later this year. 2 Ho Chi Minh City-Hanoi Vietnam in any significant way, the industry will nearly flat year-over-year capacity priced used aircraft. The CEOs of profitability and the all-important an- The Hong Kong and Singapore gov- need to reverse such apprehensions. by year-end, indicating an aggressive both companies have said they will cillary revenues by luring in wary con- 3 Tokyo-Sapporo Japan ernments have allowed transit flights So far, IATA continues to predict strategy to capitalize on its domes- use them to source fleet growth and sumers with low prices. It is a message 4 Osaka-Tokyo Japan to resume, which will put SIA and that the industry will return to profit- tic network and low-cost structure spare parts for their Airbus A320 and the region’s LCCs have already taken 5 Fukuoka-Tokyo Japan Cathay in a good position to take advan- during the COVID-19 recovery. Delta Boeing 737 fleets, respectively. to heart. EasyJet said it was launch- ability in 2022, with a relatively steep 6 Shanghai-Guangzhou China tage of global markets as they reopen. recovery of global airline traffic to a Air Lines, with far more exposure American Airlines and Delta have ing its biggest summer sale ever as it A crucial factor for many Asia-Pacific level 36% below 2019 by year-end and to battered corporate and long-haul already retired more than 350 aircraft mapped out the partial resumption of 7 Shanghai-Shenzhen China airlines will be gaining more access to 29% below 2019 in 2021. markets, plans to steadily grow its combined, including all of Ameri- its schedule, with over 1 million flights 8 Tokyo-Okinawa Japan China routes, which have been heavily Global traffic figures for May show domestic schedule back to 55-60% can’s A330s, Boeing 757s, 767s and starting at £29.99 ($38), highlighting 9 Hanoi-Da Nang Vietnam restricted by the Chinese government a 91.3% reduction over last year, com- of last year’s levels by September, Embraer 190s and all of Delta’s MD- the intense pricing pressure it and its 10 Shanghai-Chengdu China during the pandemic. 88s, MD-90s and peers are facing. Source: CAPA and OAG Varying levels of government sup- Boeing 777s. Unit- EasyJet has said it expects to be port will play a key role in determining COVID-19 Impact on 2020 Air Trafﬁc ed has not retired operating at about 30% of its normal employees through a crisis that will which airlines emerge strongest from any aircraft, but pre-COVID-19 capacity in the fourth be felt until 2023-24.” the COVID-19 crisis. For example, has parked hun- quarter of its financial year, which In the Asia-Pacific region, domestic SIA’s S$15 billion ($11 billion) state- dreds temporarily runs through the end of September. markets have been rebounding well as backed financing package will give it while executives Ryanair, meanwhile, returned to 40% internal restrictions have eased, and an advantage. In contrast, the Thai seek more clarity of normal flight schedules July 1, the strongest growth tends to be in government’s decision to send Thai aseline on demand trends. with a daily flight schedule of almost countries that have been most suc- Airways to bankruptcy court to re- In Europe, a re- 1,000 flights, restoring 90% of its pre- cessful in controlling the pandemic. structure shows that governments eceber covery is underway. COVID-19 route network. The top 10 domestic markets as mea- have less appetite to provide money According to Euro- Lufthansa plans to fly to 90% of its sured by seat capacity are all in the to airlines with poor financial records. control data, the domestic and European destinations Asia-Pacific region. Some Asian nations are still consider- number of flights as well as 70% of its long-haul markets Vietnam, for example, has seen its ing airline bailout packages. onside by September, albeit at around 40% of risk in the network was domestic capacity surge back quickly Airlines in the region are also pull- 12,742 on July 1, precrisis capacity, so at a much lower after essentially disappearing in April. ing whatever levers they can, and eceber about four times frequency. Markets such as India’s have pro - many have launched restructuring the level of just a “I think in the best-case scenario, by gressed more slowly, with the Indian initiatives or broad strategic reviews. week earlier. “The the end of the summer if we’re back to government capping domestic capac- Some of these airlines had already recovery is clearly 50% of normal demand, that would be ity since flights resumed on May 25. started—or recently completed— January April July October January April July October gathering speed,” spectacular,” Edmond says. The rapid recovery of domestic turnaround programs, but the new says Eurocon- Beyond the financial and psycholog- markets is likely to continue through reviews are likely to go much further Source: IATA trol CEO Eamonn ical factors affecting passengers, there this year, providing some relief for air- and yield broader changes. They will Brennan. are operational and financial risks to lines in the absence of international examine areas such as workforce, fleet pared to a 94% drop in April. “May before taking a strategic pause while But that growth is still a drop in contend with for the airlines too. traffic. Of course, this is cold comfort and network as they look to stream- wasSource: not ATA quite as terrible as April. management evaluates fall demand the ocean compared to precoronavi- French Bee CEO Marc Rochet says to airlines such as Cathay Pacific and line their businesses. That’s about the best thing that can trends. rus levels, and airlines and consumers the increased costs and unpredictable Singapore Airlines (SIA) that do not There likely will be some airlines be said,” says IATA Director General American Airlines and United Air- alike are cautious about how the next revenues of the post-coronavirus have domestic networks. that do not survive the crisis. Many and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. Essen- lines are planning to push their do- few weeks and months will play out. ramp-up phase could be fatal to some International recovery has been of the region’s flag carriers have pre- tially all of the recovery came from mestic flying above 50% in July and And not everyone benefits equally, airlines. “The sleep phase cost a lot more sluggish in the Asia-Pacific re- viously been considered too big to fail, domestic travel, particularly within August, respectively. Still, with so with UK-based airlines still struggling of money, but most airlines were able gion, which is relatively fragmented but the massive government spending China. There was “no improvement much uncertainty surrounding the with quarantine rules while some, to absorb that,” he says. “The take - due to the vast number of countries necessitated by COVID-19 could chal- at all in international travel,” Pearce return of corporate and internation- such as Virgin Atlantic, desperately off phase, however, could be fatal for and a relative lack of intraregional lenge that assumption. notes. IATA members also recorded al traffic, it is likely that the largest seek more equity. some airlines because no one knows authorities. Some airlines have be- For now, smaller LCCs appear an all-time-low load factor of 50.7% for carriers will remain deep in negative “On the positive side, there is pent- how long it will last.” gun ramping up international flights more vulnerable, particularly those the month, a decrease of 31 percentage year-over-year capacity territory until up demand coming into the summer. “Adapting to the change in demand this month, including Korean Air and that have not benefited from state points compared to May 2019. spring 2021, when the base for com- Lots of people would like to be able to and the weaker medium-term outlook the major Japanese carriers. But the bailouts that flag carriers have re - Beginning in June, though, many parison will also have been affected by go away on holiday,” says Edmond. “In requires airlines to cut capacity by 10- key factor will be how quickly cross- ceived. The long-haul LCCs could airlines started rebuilding capacity. the pandemic. Europe the main driver this summer 20%,” Roeska writes. “This requires border restrictions and quarantine be particularly at risk due to their A bet was placed on the future. Ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCC) be- is going to be leisure, not business.” renegotiation with aircraft OEMs and requirements are eased. reliance on international routes and In the U.S., with international trav- lieve their domestic leisure focus and “We would expect a second the labor base. The upcoming weeks A few countries have established widebody aircraft. NokScoot is one el set to lag domestic in the absence low operating costs will allow them to [COVID- 19] wave, should it material- will demonstrate how successful travel corridors—or fast lanes— LCC that has been closed down by its of a vaccine, domestic-focused carri- grow aggressively during the recov- ize, to be met with a more granular airlines can shrink their business between them for essential travel. owners, and Tigerair Australia will ers such as Southwest Airlines will ery period, a scenario reminiscent of approach by authorities instead of without carrying too many planes or South Korea and Singapore both have likely soon follow. c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 39 DEFENSE

Source: Coonea o Auraa naissance (ISR) aircraft,” increasing Long-range ground-strike missiles Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. numbers and sophistication in tactical for the navy and perhaps the army are His colleague Andrew Davies says: and strategic awareness. But money also planned, on timescales that are un- “Beyond the headlines of this an- for this will not ﬂ ow before 2030. disclosed but evidently not close. Am- nouncement, there is essentially no These are among many acquisitions munition and fuel stocks will rise. One extra money and very little in the way that vague timelines suggest will occur of the three Jindalee over-the-horizon of force-structure changes.” Near-term next decade. A theme among the possi- radars will be expanded this decade to spending plans, announced previously, ble purchases is larger unit numbers for look east as well as north and west— are mostly undisturbed, he notes. tankers, air-surveillance aircraft, air- obviously because the government Canberra is, however, maintaining lifters and electronic attack aircraft. c fears the danger of Chinese forces ap- its projected defense budget in the face proaching from the Paciﬁ c. of economic damage from the corona- —With Craig Ca rey in London

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Australian Strategy Pivots, virus pandemic. The government says a former target of spending 2% of GDP Spending Plans Change Little on the military, to be reached in the fi nancial year that began on July 1, will not be regarded as an upper limit. Ac- MOST NEW ACQUISITION PROGRAMS WILL BEAR FRUIT IN THE 2030S > cording to Aviation Week estimates, > BUT AIR-LAUNCHED STRIKE MISSILES ARE COMING SOONER spending will be 2.2% of GDP in 2020-21 and 2.3-2.4% for the rest of the decade. Bradley Perrett Beijing The government says Australia “must be able to hold potential ad- ustralia can no longer rule out Australian defense-policy state- versaries’ forces and infrastructure su ering a major attack with- ments consist of two parts: essaylike at risk from a greater distance and Ain 10 years, the government descriptions of threats and strategy, therefore infl uence their calculus of says. But if Prime Minister Scott Mor- which for the past decade or so have costs involved in threatening Austra- AUGUST 25-26, 2020 rison is worried about the risk of war tiptoed around the danger from China , lian interests.” This can refer only to in the 2020s, analysts do not see his and nuts-and-bolts spending plans China—specifi cally, to its forces that Belmond Charleston Place administration’s new defense strategy that have consistently augmented the might approach Australia and bases it doing much about it. armed forces, though never dramati- might build within reach of the country. Charleston, SC Although a Strategy Update pub- cally in the short term. Accordingly, Canberra will assess lished on July 1 recognizes a rapidly This time, the threat-and-strate- its options for equipping combat air- growing threat from China, the size gy statement is markedly different. craft with longer-range strike weap- of 2020s defense budgets is hardly It drops the assumption of 10 years’ ons; spending on this has begun. Op- Designed for leaders and decision-makers from OEMs to Supplier Tiers changing (see graph). Australia will warning of attack, declares that Aus- tions were not listed, but they must in the Aerospace Manufacturing Industry buy air-to-surface strike weapons tralia must rely more on itself—im- suit either of the two types that will to deter an enemy, meaning China, plicitly not so much on the U.S.—and constitute the 2020s fi ghter force: the but most other new spending plans pulls the focus of defense policy closer Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning and The SpeedNews 8th Annual Aerospace Manufacturing Conference Topics focus on key components driving will make no di erence to capability to home, suggesting Canberra is less Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet. will bring together leading manufacturers and suppliers in the the industry: before the 2030s. Australia’s biggest interested in expeditionary operations. Money that the 2016 white paper The future of aerospace manufacturing and defense acquisition programs are un- But this new strategy has not made set aside for more F-35s to succeed aerospace industry to present updates and developments in our new normal changed; the naval ones will deliver much di erence for the shopping list, the 24 F/A-18Fs around 2030 is now manufacturing operations, capabilities and processes, innovation Operations: systems integration and agile manufacturing results mainly in the 2040s. says Marcus Hellyer of the Australian labeled “additional air combat capa- within manufacturing, modern machining technologies, and bility,” which suggests the possibility How automation and digitalization are industry automation. transforming manufacturing of expansion, not mere replacement. stralia Deese pei How suppliers need to adopt and adapt to the But Hellyer, noting the habitual im- Delegates will gain a full understanding of the latest trends, challenges and new manufacturing era precision of the defense department’s forecasts in the aerospace manufacturing industry, and be provided with Additive manufacturing in aerospace from a planning statements, warns against strategic business perspective insider knowledge and examples of products that can have a direct impact on Actual or expected How can innovation around manufacturing reading too much into this. 2020 plan their operations and improve productivity and profitability. contribute to job creation and workforce diversity The acquisition of combat drones 2016 plan is now defi nitely planned, with fund- Extrapolation of 2016 plan Who benefits from attending? ing beginning in 2026-27—which may mean an order will be placed a few 81% 93% Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, years later. This improves the chanc- material and parts suppliers TD Supply chain executives and senior decision es that Boeing will sell its unmanned makers 2 Airpower Teaming System (ATS) to First time Delegates report they Delegates report they would ustralian billions would “likely” or “very likely” recommend a Conference Strategic planning, marketing executives and 2 Australia. Boeing is developing the attend another Conference. to a colleague or peer. business development leaders ATS in Australia initially for nonki- Executives in production, operations, research netic missions. & development, technology and engineering ShowCase Your Products or Services Canberra says it will pay for “de- 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 The ShowCase at SpeedNews’ Aerospace Manufacturing Conference is offering velopment and acquisition of addi- Sponsorships Note: A$1 = 68 cents U.S. Fisal ears tional crewed and remotely piloted a select number of manufacturing, technology and product/service providers the Sponsorships enable you to promote your brand, Source: ooe o Aur intelligence, surveillance and recon- opportunity to join this exclusive event. As a ShowCase sponsor, you will benefit from products and/or services on the expansive Aviation naissance (ISR) aircraft,” increasing Week Network, and on-site throughout the Conference. Source: Coonea o Auraa two days of networking, knowledge building and learning about trends, innovations Customized sponsorships are also available. The earlier Long-range ground-strike missiles Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. numbers and sophistication in tactical you begin your Sponsorship – the more valuable for the navy and perhaps the army are His colleague Andrew Davies says: and strategic awareness. But money and issues affecting the global aerospace supply chain. it is! The Aviation Week Network averages more than also planned, on timescales that are un- “Beyond the headlines of this an- for this will not fl ow before 2030. two million page views per month – that’s millions of potential views of your logo if you start today! disclosed but evidently not close. Am- nouncement, there is essentially no These are among many acquisitions NEW! Take the Stage. Impress the Audience. To become a Sponsor contact Joanna Speed, Managing munition and fuel stocks will rise. One extra money and very little in the way that vague timelines suggest will occur Getting noticed is the initial step to selling into the industry. We are selecting three Director, A&D Conferences at +1-310-857-7691. of the three Jindalee over-the-horizon of force-structure changes.” Near-term next decade. A theme among the possi- organizations to demonstrate their latest innovation in front of senior leaders and radars will be expanded this decade to spending plans, announced previously, ble purchases is larger unit numbers for decision-makers. This is an unmatched opportunity to showcase your product to the look east as well as north and west— are mostly undisturbed, he notes. tankers, air-surveillance aircraft, air- obviously because the government Canberra is, however, maintaining lifters and electronic attack aircraft. c industry in a 5-minute pitch! fears the danger of Chinese forces ap- its projected defense budget in the face proaching from the Pacifi c. of economic damage from the corona- —With Craig Ca rey in London 2901 28th Street, Suite 100 • Santa Monica, CA 90405, USA Register and Learn More at: Conf.Events/AMC Tel: +1-310-857-7691 • Email: [email protected] AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW MAINTAINING MOMENTUM While Airbus’ commercial business faces strong headwinds from the novel coronavirus pandemic, the company’s military capability is still very much in demand. But can Europe’s big defense initiatives—many of which involve Airbus —be sustained with burdened budgets post-COVID-19? London Bureau Chief Tony Osborne put those questions to Airbus Defense and Space CEO Dirk Hoke.

AW&ST: What does the defense en- How has COVID-19 affected pro- vironment look like post-COVID-19? duction and output in the various Will we face more spending cuts, or countries, and how have you over- will spending plans be maintained? come or are overcoming those dent [we will] sign a contract for 38 And are you confident big defense hurdles? I would say we were early Eurofighters to replace the German programs can survive? A health adapters. Given the experience Tranche 1 fleet. and economic crisis doesn’t erase we had at our commercial sites in Additionally, we are in discussions the necessity of being able to defend China, on which we could build, it for planning a Tranche 5 [implemen- your territory. NATO missions are took us around a week to clear all tation of] the Long-Term Evolution continuing, and the extensive use of production facilities for working un- Program. What the final decision our A400Ms and [A330 Multi-Role der COVID-19 work restrictions. On on Tornado will be, we will see only Tanker Transports] MRTTs during the defense side, we also delivered after the elections in Germany [at the COVID-19 crisis is a perfect aircraft in the lockdown phase and the] end of 2021. In the meantime, example of how much value military provided our services to the military there are further opportunities in assets can bring in humanitarian crews on mission. Spain, Switzerland and Finland. The missions, when nations are in need. It was, rather, the space part, Eurofighter clearly is the backbone In addition, spending in defense where we had to reschedule satellite of European air defense. procurement, if you do it right, is launches due to the temporary clo- always an investment in your own sure of the launch site in Kourou What progress is being made on economy and therefore now twice [in French Guiana]. And for the desk the Future Combat Air System as important. jobs, many were working from home (FCAS)? Can you talk about some during the lockdowns in order to of the technological hurdles, where The defense business was under- avoid [having] too many meetings at there needs to be or has been taking some restructuring and the offices at the same time. They progress to reach the next phase? cost cutting at the beginning of are now coming back to their desks. There is a tremendous drive in the 2020 after a difficult 2019. Where We could demonstrate that also in project. All parties, on both the polit- are those plans; will they have to crisis times we are a trustful partner ical and industrial sides, are pushing be reconsidered? We have had to for our customers. for progress and can be proud of slightly adapt our restructuring what has been achieved in less than due to the COVID-19 impact, but Airbus proposed a compromise three years after being mentioned the rationale stays the same. In our deal for the Eurofighter following the first time in the French-German defense business, many important Germany’s decision on a Tornado declaration on July 13, 2017. We need contracts had been postponed or replacement. Is Berlin showing to keep this spirit up to achieve our came later than expected, which interest in your proposals; could we ambitious timelines. In terms of tech- has of course had an impact on see some of these Eurofighters on nologies, we are at the early stage of operational planning. In our space contract soon? Let me state that we a long journey (see page 55). business, we currently see an are very proud of being part of the Overall, we are looking into a wide extremely flat market for telecom- Eurofighter family. There are some range of technologies in the areas munication satellites. We are [the] good opportunities ahead. Recently of combat aircraft capabilities, digi- market leader and confident that we signed the contract for equipping talization and data analysis, as well the situation will change again. But 115 [German and Spanish] Euro- as connectivity and communication. for the time being we must take the fighters with brand-new Captor-E Airbus is the only company in Europe appropriate measures. radars. In the autumn, we are confi- that has extensive know-how in all

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW

expecting a decision by the nations fleet. I don’t want to speculate about after the summer break. Germany, numbers, but pooling resources as is France, Spain and Italy worked with already the case with military trans- MAINTAINING us on the capabilities from the onset, port capacities is a blueprint for the so the complete design is according future. The U.S. surely is the larg- to their wishes. Therefore, in terms of est accessible market for military MOMENTUM performance, capability and European tankers. We have the best aircraft sovereignty there is no serious com- in this class. And besides our own petitor on the market. What is clear Airbus footprint, we have Lockheed While Airbus’ commercial business faces strong headwinds is, the later the order comes, the more Martin as an equal partner in the from the novel coronavirus pandemic, the company’s military the delivery dates are slipping. I don’t country. We stand ready. In the end think that’s in anybody’s interest. the question will be whether the U.S. capability is still very much in demand. But can Europe’s is ready for this, too. big defense initiatives—many of which involve Airbus —be Are you making any proposals for Germany’s Pegasus signals- Regarding A400M tactical capabil- sustained with burdened budgets post-COVID-19? London intelligence (sigint) platform since ities and exports, any progress on Bureau Chief Tony Osborne put those questions to Airbus Berlin withdrew from using Triton? both? The A400M has meanwhile Will you offer the Integrated Stand- proven to be a real workhorse in Defense and Space CEO Dirk Hoke. by Instrument Systems (ISIS) sys- the services, and flight testing again tem on a manned platform? That’s has made good progress in recent AW&ST: What does the defense en- How has COVID-19 affected pro- now in the hands of the German months. Simultaneous paratrooper vironment look like post-COVID-19? duction and output in the various government. Over the years of the jumps out of the side doors are now Will we face more spending cuts, or countries, and how have you over- HERVE GOUSSE/AIRBUS project we developed many skills certified, and the helicopter air- will spending plans be maintained? come or are overcoming those dent [we will] sign a contract for 38 three areas. Nevertheless, as we are and capabilities in Germany that are to-air refueling is advancing well. And are you confident big defense hurdles? I would say we were early Eurofighters to replace the German talking about requirements needed required in any sigint platform. That The aircraft is simply best-in-class. programs can survive? A health adapters. Given the experience Tranche 1 fleet. in 2040, we are far away from hav- applies especially for the ground Other nations recognize this very and economic crisis doesn’t erase we had at our commercial sites in Additionally, we are in discussions ing definite answers yet. The FCAS control station, which we also de- well, but it is currently a difficult en- the necessity of being able to defend China, on which we could build, it for planning a Tranche 5 [implemen- is very much an incremental jour- liver for NATO’s [Alliance Ground vironment to predict when the next your territory. NATO missions are took us around a week to clear all tation of] the Long-Term Evolution ney with an open end—that’s what Surveillance] project. Therefore, exports are coming in. continuing, and the extensive use of production facilities for working un- Program. What the final decision makes the program so challenging, our A400Ms and [A330 Multi-Role der COVID-19 work restrictions. On on Tornado will be, we will see only but also so exciting. Tanker Transports] MRTTs during the defense side, we also delivered after the elections in Germany [at the COVID-19 crisis is a perfect aircraft in the lockdown phase and the] end of 2021. In the meantime, You made representations to Ma- example of how much value military provided our services to the military there are further opportunities in drid regarding the involvement assets can bring in humanitarian crews on mission. Spain, Switzerland and Finland. The with Indra on the FCAS. Is there missions, when nations are in need. It was, rather, the space part, Eurofighter clearly is the backbone any sign of that changing? Is there In addition, spending in defense where we had to reschedule satellite of European air defense. a point when you begin working procurement, if you do it right, is launches due to the temporary clo- together and sideline the differ- always an investment in your own sure of the launch site in Kourou What progress is being made on ences? Spain is a very welcome The A400M has been proving economy and therefore now twice [in French Guiana]. And for the desk the Future Combat Air System partner in the FCAS program and itself to its operating nations, as important. jobs, many were working from home (FCAS)? Can you talk about some is one of our Airbus home nations. I but exports for the airlifter during the lockdowns in order to really believe that the FCAS project of the technological hurdles, where have been tough to pin down. The defense business was under- avoid [having] too many meetings at there needs to be or has been is large enough for the whole Eu- the offices at the same time. They progress to reach the next phase? ropean defense industry. To make taking some restructuring and ANDREW LINNETT/UK DEFENSE MINISTRY cost cutting at the beginning of are now coming back to their desks. There is a tremendous drive in the it a success, it is important that 2020 after a difficult 2019. Where We could demonstrate that also in project. All parties, on both the polit- everybody contributes where he has we stand ready [for] implementing Given that space has been declared are those plans; will they have to crisis times we are a trustful partner ical and industrial sides, are pushing the largest experience. In terms of our know-how once the decision has a warfighting domain by several na- be reconsidered? We have had to for our customers. for progress and can be proud of system integration, it is undoubtedly been taken. Nonetheless, I am still tions, are you seeing an uptake in slightly adapt our restructuring what has been achieved in less than Airbus—especially in Spain, where convinced that Triton would have defense interest in space, or is that due to the COVID-19 impact, but Airbus proposed a compromise three years after being mentioned we have a large industrial footprint, been the most capable platform for something still warming? When the rationale stays the same. In our deal for the Eurofighter following the first time in the French-German are producing the Eurofighter, the envisaged missions. we see how dependent mankind is defense business, many important Germany’s decision on a Tornado declaration on July 13, 2017. We need A400M, tankers and the light and on assets in space, it is high time to contracts had been postponed or replacement. Is Berlin showing to keep this spirit up to achieve our medium transport aircraft. I think On MRTT, where do you see the act and find ways to protect them. came later than expected, which interest in your proposals; could we ambitious timelines. In terms of tech- it is understandable that we ex- next market for that platform? Some countries are making progress has of course had an impact on see some of these Eurofighters on nologies, we are at the early stage of pressed our incomprehension to the How many more orders could come already. Others are still undecided operational planning. In our space contract soon? Let me state that we a long journey (see page 55). Spanish government. from the European Multinational on their strategy. As Europe’s largest business, we currently see an are very proud of being part of the Overall, we are looking into a wide Multi-Role Tanker Transport Fleet/ space company, we can make sug- extremely flat market for telecom- Eurofighter family. There are some range of technologies in the areas Are you any closer to securing a Unit (MMF/MMU)? Is the agree- gestions. But what is valid for the munication satellites. We are [the] good opportunities ahead. Recently of combat aircraft capabilities, digi- contract for the Eurodrone devel- ment with Lockheed on MRTT world applies also in space: You can’t market leader and confident that we signed the contract for equipping talization and data analysis, as well opment? Are you concerned that making progress on marketing for defend space or your assets there as the situation will change again. But 115 [German and Spanish] Euro- as connectivity and communication. France could still be swayed down U.S. needs? What is your hope for a single country. What we need is a for the time being we must take the fighters with brand-new Captor-E Airbus is the only company in Europe the U.S. route? In June we handed that? Only weeks ago, we delivered common approach. And it is needed appropriate measures. radars. In the autumn, we are confi- that has extensive know-how in all over our best and final offer and are the first MRTT to the joint NATO sooner rather than later. c

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 43 DEFENSE > Australian strategy pivot p. 40 First MRTT arrival p. 49 Next-generation fighters pp. 52-59

AIRBUS DEFENSE AND SAE ENCOURAGING C PERATION

> EU IS MULLING OVER > EUROPEAN DEFENSE TOOK > NATO NATIONS ARE THIRD-NATION ACCESS A DECADE TO RECOVER CONCERNED ABOUT TO PESCO AND EDF FROM THE 2008 ASECOND TRUMP FINANCIAL DOWNTURN ADMINISTRATION Tony Osborne London

ver the last six years, The European Defense Agency identi ed the need for increased European aerial an alphabet soup of refueling capability in 2012, resulting in creation of the Multinational Multirole Odefense initiatives has Tanker and Transport Fleet, equipped with the Airbus A330 MRTT. emerged from European lead- and the European Defense Industrial den and the UK. ership in Brussels. Development Program (EDIDP) have The difference this time is that emerged from the European Union such relationships were forged by na- These European mechanisms for (EU) and European Commission’s tional governments, but the new wave defense cooperation may have been (EC) call for EU member states to of cooperation is being stimulated slow to gain traction, but they are take more care of their own security centrally with EU and EC money, to encouraging more pooling and shar- and be less reliant on the U.S. improve coordination between the ing of assets, bolstering research and The initiatives are leading to new nations in an attempt to change the development funding, encouraging partnerships that would have been perception that such collaborations nations with similar requirements to unlikely in the past, aiming to fi ll ca- can sometimes cost more overall. The work together and most of all, helping pability gaps that no single European joint e orts are now being applied to nations avoid repeating the mistakes nation alone could have achieved. a multiplicity of programs, large and governments made in the aftermath The big question is whether gov- small, and not just to those consid- of the 2008 global fi nancial crisis. ernments can overcome nationalist ered unwieldy or complex. And soon they could help Europe’s tendencies and be more willing to Consider the creation of the Multi- embattled defense industrial base cooperate. And if so, will the projects national Multirole Tanker Transport bounce back, once the dust from produce something tangible? (MRTT) Unit, which will see six na- the novel coronavirus pandemic has European defense cooperation has tions—Belgium, the Czech Republic, settled. existed in di erent forms for decades, Germany, Luxembourg, the Nether- Agencies such as the European through development of the Panavia lands and Norway—jointly operating Defense Agency (EDA) and initia- Tornado by Germany, Italy and the a fl eet of Airbus A330 MRTT refuel- tives such as the European Defense UK; the Franco-German work on ing tankers. More than eight years in Fund (EDF), Permanent Structured the C-160 Transall airlifter; and the the making, the pooling and sharing Cooperation (PESCO), Preparatory MBDA Meteor missile shared be- initiative emerged from the EDA and Action on Defense Research (PADR) tween Germany, Italy, France, Swe- boosts the number of aerial refueling

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > Australian strategy pivot p. 40 First MRTT arrival p. 49 Next-generation fighters pp. 52-59

defense cooperation emerged in the “This succession of events really years after the deep post-2008 eco- highlighted to European leaders that nomic downturn that prompted many they needed to get their act togeth- European governments to adopt aus- er,” says Daniel Fiott, security and AIRBUS DEFENSE AND SAE ENCOURAGING terity budgets, introducing sweeping defense editor at the EU Institute for cuts to public spending that sharply Security Studies. curtailed capability. Budgets in some As treasuries across Europe began of the smaller nations were reduced to trickle money back into defense by as much as 30%, according to re- budgets, further alarm was generat- C PERATION search by the German Council on ed by the rhetoric of U.S. President Foreign Relations. Overall, about €24 Donald Trump, who having berated billion ($27 billion)—equivalent to several NATO members for not meet- around 11% of Europe’s total defense ing the alliance’s defense spending spending—was cut in the years follow- target of 2% of GDP, single-handedly ing 2008. “undermined alliance cohesion and “It took until [2019] for defense coherence,” says Giegerich. Trump spending [by] NATO’s European raised doubts about the U.S. com- members to recover in constant mitment to NATO’s Article 5, which dollar terms back to the level where states that an attack on one ally is it was when that 2008 fi nancial cri- an attack on all. That shock, “and the sis hit,” Bastian Giegerich, director possibility that if Trump is reelect- of defense and military analysis at ed [this November] . . . he could do the London-based International In- something radical within NATO,” stitute for Strategic Studies, tells has prompted a continued drive to Aviation Week. modernize European capabilities, When allied air forces began fly- suggests Fiott. ing missions over Libya in 2011, they Britain’s departure from the Euro- EU IS MULLING OVER EUROPEAN DEFENSE TOOK NATO NATIONS ARE lacked aerial refueling, electronic- pean Union provided the EU and EC > > > warfare and intelligence, surveillance with the impetus for reinforced de- THIRD-NATION ACCESS A DECADE TO RECOVER CONCERNED ABOUT and reconnaissance capabilities to fense cooperation; London had long TO PESCO AND EDF FROM THE 2008 ASECOND TRUMP boosts the number of aerial refueling find targets, and ended up relying resisted such attempts. FINANCIAL DOWNTURN ADMINISTRATION tankers available to European na- heavily on U.S. assets that Washing- “The UK line was always that the Tony Osborne London tions, with governments paying for ton had been reluctant to provide. EU shouldn’t try and develop certain fl ight hours on an annual basis. The The lessons only began being heed- mechanisms or capacities that they ver the last six years, The European Defense Agency identi ed the need for increased European aerial fi rst of the tankers was delivered to ed when the European security situa- would see as potentially duplicating an alphabet soup of refueling capability in 2012, resulting in creation of the Multinational Multirole the Netherlands in early July. tion deteriorated rapidly. NATO,” says Fiott. defense initiatives has Tanker and Transport Fleet, equipped with the Airbus A330 MRTT. There has been cooperation in The Arab Spring, which had caused In the fall of 2016, European Com- O demonstrations of unmanned systems the collapse of the Muammar Ghaddifi mission President Jean-Claude emerged from European lead- and the European Defense Industrial den and the UK. and sensor technology for increased government in Libya and was continu- Juncker told EU member states that ership in Brussels. Development Program (EDIDP) have The difference this time is that maritime awareness through the ing to ripple through North Africa Europe needed to “toughen up” and emerged from the European Union such relationships were forged by na- Ocean2020 project, a PADR initia- and the Middle East causing insta- not “piggyback on the military might These European mechanisms for (EU) and European Commission’s tional governments, but the new wave tive, and with enhanced airlifter and bility on the edges of the Mediterra- of others.” defense cooperation may have been (EC) call for EU member states to of cooperation is being stimulated helicopter training through a series nean, was quickly followed in 2014 by He added: “We have to take respon- slow to gain traction, but they are take more care of their own security centrally with EU and EC money, to of EDA-arranged training exercises the Russian- backed insurrection in sibility for protecting our interests encouraging more pooling and shar- and be less reliant on the U.S. improve coordination between the (AW&ST July 20-Aug. 2, 2015, p. 63). Eastern Ukraine and Moscow’s an- and the European way of life.” ing of assets, bolstering research and The initiatives are leading to new nations in an attempt to change the The push for deeper European nexation of Crimea. According to the EC, the lack of de- development funding, encouraging partnerships that would have been perception that such collaborations fense cooperation between member nations with similar requirements to unlikely in the past, aiming to fi ll ca- can sometimes cost more overall. The states costs between €25-100 billion work together and most of all, helping pability gaps that no single European joint e orts are now being applied to because of issues such as duplication

nations avoid repeating the mistakes nation alone could have achieved. a multiplicity of programs, large and OAR governments made in the aftermath The big question is whether gov- small, and not just to those consid- The Franco-German, Italian and of the 2008 global ﬁ nancial crisis. ernments can overcome nationalist ered unwieldy or complex. Spanish EuroDrone is one of the pro- And soon they could help Europe’s tendencies and be more willing to Consider the creation of the Multi- grams envisaged to receive support embattled defense industrial base cooperate. And if so, will the projects national Multirole Tanker Transport from the European Defense Fund. bounce back, once the dust from produce something tangible? (MRTT) Unit, which will see six na- the novel coronavirus pandemic has European defense cooperation has tions—Belgium, the Czech Republic, of e« ort. It also notes that 80% of pro- settled. existed in di erent forms for decades, Germany, Luxembourg, the Nether- curement and 90% of research and Agencies such as the European through development of the Panavia lands and Norway—jointly operating technology are run on a solely nation- Defense Agency (EDA) and initia- Tornado by Germany, Italy and the a ﬂ eet of Airbus A330 MRTT refuel- al basis. The EC claims that enhanced tives such as the European Defense UK; the Franco-German work on ing tankers. More than eight years in cooperation between member states Fund (EDF), Permanent Structured the C-160 Transall airlifter; and the the making, the pooling and sharing could reduce annual defense expendi- Cooperation (PESCO), Preparatory MBDA Meteor missile shared be- initiative emerged from the EDA and tures across Europe by 30% through Action on Defense Research (PADR) tween Germany, Italy, France, Swe- boosts the number of aerial refueling pooling procurement.

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 4 DEFENSE

Twister, a PESCO project, is looking at

MBDA technologies to defeat future ballistic and supersonic cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons, bolstering Europe’s missile defense capability.

velop defense capabilities. PESCO projects are likely to receive funding from the EDF. There are currently some 47 PESCO projects supported by 25 member states. Several of the projects are aero - space-related programs. One is the Junker’s words were followed up a battlefield missile system have been Timely Warning and Interception year later with the EC’s formation of funded, a steppingstone toward cre- with Space-based TheatER surveil- the European Defense Fund for joint ation of the EDF. lance program (Twister)—led by research and development of defense Direct support is also envisaged France and supported by Finland, projects. for two large-scale projects, includ- Italy, the Netherlands and Spain— The EDF was set up to incentivize ing the EuroDrone medium-altitude to develop a capability to track and joint development projects and pro- long-endurance aircraft system be- counter emerging threats, including vide co-financing if several member ing developed by France, Germany, hypersonic gliders and supersonic nations bulk-buy capabilities be - Italy and Spain and for the Europe- cruise missiles. Another, Airborne tween them. This was preceded by an Secure Software-Defined Radio Electronic Attack, led by Spain with the PADR and the EDIDP, a series (ESSOR) program. support from France and Sweden, of preparatory programs paving the Some of the PADR and EDIDP ini- calls for the joint development of a

way for the EDF (AW&ST June 12-25, AIRBUS DEFENSE AND SPACE 2017, p. 28). “[The] PADR and EDIDP test the way the institutions and the funding The MMF has options on three more A330 MRTTs, should more nations beyond the existing six wish to join the program.

mechanisms work and help to generate some buzz in industry,” says Fiott. These programs began to deliver benefits in June, when the EC announced €205 million of funding to support 16 PADR and EDIDP initia- tiatives are linked to the other major pod-mounted electronic attack and tives. Projects including the devel- initiative, PESCO. countermeasure capability for com- opment of a low-observable tactical Run by the European Defense bat aircraft. PESCO programs are unmanned aircraft system, research Agency and the EU’s External Action also focused on training, joint forces into high-resolution observation pay- Service, PESCO calls on Euro pean activity and cyberwarfare. loads for satellites, and studies for a member states to make binding There are, however, debates as beyond-visual-line-of-sight land-based commitments to invest in and de - to whether the PESCO initiatives will deliver new capabilities. Some are seen as vanity programs, others may merely be national programs The European Defense Agency also led on development of pan- European TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST helicopter training exercises to improve interoperability and standardization. for which some nations have roped in other partners in a bid to secure funding. A review of the PESCO projects is currently underway. “We can’t prove that cooperation delivers anything, and we don’t know

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE European Cooperative Aerospace and Defense Programs Twister, a PESCO project, is looking at Project Mechanism Lead Nation Supporting Countries MBDA technologies to defeat future ballistic Helicopter Hot-and-High Training PESCO Greece Italy, Romania and supersonic cruise missiles and Beyond-Line-of-Sight Land Battlefield Missile Systems PESCO France Belgium, Cyprus hypersonic weapons, bolstering European Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance Remotely PESCO/ Germany Czech Republic, France, Italy, Spain Europe’s missile defense capability. Piloted Aircraft Systems (Eurodrone) EDF velop defense capabilities. PESCO Tiger Mk. 3 European Attack Helicopter PESCO France Germany, Spain projects are likely to receive funding Counter Unmanned Aerial System PESCO Italy Czech Republic from the EDF. There are currently Airborne Electronic Attack PESCO Spain France, Sweden some 47 PESCO projects supported by 25 member states. Timely Warning and Interception with Space-based PESCO France Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain Several of the projects are aero - Theater surveillance (Twister) space-related programs. One is the European Global RPAS Insertion Architecture System PESCO Italy France, Romania Junker’s words were followed up a battlefield missile system have been Timely Warning and Interception year later with the EC’s formation of funded, a steppingstone toward cre- with Space-based TheatER surveil- European High-Atmosphere Airship Platform (EHAAP) PESCO Italy France – Persistent Intelligence, Surveillance and the European Defense Fund for joint ation of the EDF. lance program (Twister)—led by Reconnaissance (ISR) Capability research and development of defense Direct support is also envisaged France and supported by Finland, projects. for two large-scale projects, includ- Italy, the Netherlands and Spain— Open Cooperation for European Maritime Awareness PADR Italy Industry from Spain, Germany, The EDF was set up to incentivize ing the EuroDrone medium-altitude to develop a capability to track and (OCEAN) Sweden, Poland, France, UK, Lithuania, Estonia, Portugal, Greece, joint development projects and pro- long-endurance aircraft system be- counter emerging threats, including Netherlands, Finland vide co-financing if several member ing developed by France, Germany, hypersonic gliders and supersonic nations bulk-buy capabilities be - Italy and Spain and for the Europe- cruise missiles. Another, Airborne European Detect and Avoid (DAA) (EUDASS) EDIDP Sweden Industry from France, Italy, Spain tween them. This was preceded by an Secure Software-Defined Radio Electronic Attack, led by Spain with Germany the PADR and the EDIDP, a series (ESSOR) program. support from France and Sweden, Low-Observable Tactical Unmanned air System EDIDP Greece Industry from Cyprus, Spain, of preparatory programs paving the Some of the PADR and EDIDP ini- calls for the joint development of a (LOTUS) Netherlands way for the EDF (AW&ST June 12-25, AIRBUS DEFENSE AND SPACE Persistent Earth Observation for Actionable EDIDP Italy Industry from Czech Republic, 2017, p. 28). Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Denmark, France, Estonia, Italy, “[The] PADR and EDIDP test the (Peoneer) Sweden, Lithuania, Spain way the institutions and the funding LynkEUs concept of operations for beyond-line-of- EDIDP France Industry from Belgium, Cyprus sight battlefield missiles The MMF has options on three Future Integrated Training Solution for TOP gun EDIDP Italy Industry from Denmark, France, Spain, more A330 MRTTs, should more (FITS4TOP) Romania nations beyond the existing six Responsive Electronic Attack for Cooperative Task EDIDP Spain Industry from Italy, France, Germany, wish to join the program. (REACT) Sweden mechanisms work and help to gener- Combined Radar, Communications, and Electronic PADR Spain Industry from France, Germany, Warfare Functions (CROWN) Sweden, Netherlands, Italy, Lithuania ate some buzz in industry,” says Fiott. These programs began to deliver Projectiles for Increased Long-Range Effects Using PADR France Industry from Belgium, Germany, benefits in June, when the EC an- Electro-Magnetic Railgun (PILUM) Poland, Italy nounced €205 million of funding to Multinational Multi-Role Tanker and Transport Fleet EDA Netherlands Belgium, Czech Republic, Germany, support 16 PADR and EDIDP initia- tiatives are linked to the other major pod-mounted electronic attack and (MMF) Luxembourg, Norway tives. Projects including the devel- initiative, PESCO. countermeasure capability for com- PESCO Permanent Structured Cooperation opment of a low-observable tactical Run by the European Defense bat aircraft. PESCO programs are EDF European Defense Fund unmanned aircraft system, research Agency and the EU’s External Action also focused on training, joint forces PADR Preparatory Action on Defense Research Digital Extra See defense alignments into high-resolution observation pay- Service, PESCO calls on Euro pean activity and cyberwarfare. EDIDP European Defense Industrial Development Program and more on our European defense loads for satellites, and studies for a member states to make binding There are, however, debates as EDA European Defense Agency cooperation interactive map: beyond-visual-line-of-sight land-based commitments to invest in and de - to whether the PESCO initiatives Source: European Commission AviationWeek.com/EuropeanDefense will deliver new capabilities. Some are seen as vanity programs, others the criteria for having good coopera- Initial proposals to allow third-nation that may explain why the U.S. ad- may merely be national programs tion and for having bad cooperation,” access have been received favorably ministration had such an allergic says Christian Molling, research by some member states, but the dis- reaction to the EDF and PESCO last The European Defense Agency also director for the German Council on cussions are bound up in delibera- year,” he adds. led on development of pan- European Foreign Relations. tions about the next EU budget. EU and EC-led plans are not the TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST helicopter training exercises PESCO has also ruffled feathers. The U.S. may have been alarmed only cooperative initiatives taking to improve interoperability and Last year, Pentagon procurement at the longer-term goals of EDF and place. Two new combat aircraft pro- standardization. officials wrote to the EU threaten- PESCO, which by providing political grams have taken shape over the last ing to apply sanctions, incorrectly and financial incentives boost pro- three years, linking unlikely bedfel- for which some nations have roped assuming that PESCO initiatives ductivity, innovation and the com- lows with very different views on de- in other partners in a bid to secure would prevent U.S. industry from petitiveness of the European defense fense. France, Germany, and Spain funding. A review of the PESCO proj- pursuing business in Europe. The industrial sector. “[It] strengthens are working on the Future Combat ects is currently underway. EU is currently exploring whether the argument to buy European and Air System (FCAS), while the UK is “We can’t prove that cooperation third nations—non-EU nations—can do things together,” says Giegerich. leading its Tempest project with Italy delivers anything, and we don’t know access PESCO and EDF initiatives. “That is a long-range threat . . . and Sweden.

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 47 DEFENSE THALES ALENIA SPACE

The European High Atmosphere Airship Platform, a PESCO project, is likely based on Thales Alenia Space’s Stratobus, a solar-powered airship for operation in the stratosphere.

Such flagship programs could have “a structuring effect on defense industrial capability in Europe for the next couple of decades,” says Giegerich. The nations will have to reconcile their differences, though France and Germany, the leading nations on FCAS, have markedly dif- ruption to [European government] and you can use it to undergird your ferent approaches to defense exports, plans, none of the security problems defense relationship.” doctrine and deterrence. that existed before have gone away,” But buying from the U.S. means Hopes from industry that the two he notes. countries are exposed to the full force projects could be combined may be In May, the defense ministers of of U.S. legislative power. wishful thinking. There may be only a the four major EU states—France, “You can’t have any kind of auton- short window of opportunity for that Germany, Italy and Spain—wrote omy in defense if ultimately Wash- to happen, perhaps 18-24 months, sug- to European leaders urging their ington is able to veto you, the use of gests Giegerich, before too many de- nations to strengthen cooperation capabilities or even the exploitation cisions on each of the projects are fi- through efforts such as PESCO. of technology,” Fiott says. “That’s nalized. FCAS was born out of French “Security and Defense must there- certainly an issue that [European] and German ambitions to become fore remain a top priority,” the letter governments are thinking about.” pillars of European defense. With the states. “We want to live up to our Another concern is that a deep entrance of Spain into the initiative, responsibilities and be able to face economic recession in the U.S. could the program is likely to be eligible for present and upcoming challenges, at prompt Washington to reconsider its support from the EDF in the future. home and abroad. . . . Hence, we have posture in Europe and speed up its It is conceivable that Tempest to maintain, strengthen and develop repivot to China. U.S. plans to with- could benefit from such funding in our ability to act and react autono - draw some 9,000 troops from Ger- the future, too, if the EC allows so- mously, as a Union.” many has sent ripples through NATO. called third nations. The crisis has prompted govern- The post-COVID-19 era could also provide an opportunity to put Europe- an defense mechanisms to good use. Reports that the EDF budget would be slashed as a result of the coronavirus crisis have proved unfounded.

TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST France, Germany and Spain are cooperating to develop a modernized version of the Airbus Tiger attack helicopter, and are looking to benefit from EDF funding for the program.

The EC plans to invest €9 billion in the EDF over the next seven years, down from the originally planned €13 billion, although this is still subject to approvals by EU member states. “There is now a time to make that argument that the EDF and the How defense cooperation evolves ments to sit up and look at their stra- Euro pean military mobility initiatives is likely to depend on how nations tegic capabilities, critical industries should be fully funded and should emerge from the COVID-19 pandem- and security of supply, says Fiott, and perhaps even be beefed up compared ic and whether they choose to make may prompt some nations to look to original plans,” says Giegerich. cuts to defense, taking an austerity closer to home again for their defense “The ball is now in the court of the approach as in 2008, or to reinvigo- relationships. EU member states.” rate their economies with fiscal stim- “The U.S. will always be a go-to “We are really fortunate in having ulus. The arguments for such cuts player when it comes to certain capa- already a lot of initiatives in place,” will be challenged in the current envi- bilities,” says Fiott. “Dealing with the says Fiott. “It is not like we have to ronment, suggests Giegerich. “While U.S. on one hand is really good. You waste the next two, three, four years COVID is obviously a massive inter- get access to high-tech equipment dreaming up new schemes.” c

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE THALES ALENIA SPACE

The European High Atmosphere The first of eight Multinational Airship Platform, a PESCO project, is European Defense Community Is Multirole Tanker and Transport Fleet likely based on Thales Alenia Space’s Facing Down Tanker Shortfalls A330s arrived at Eindhoven Air Stratobus, a solar-powered airship Base on July 1. for operation in the stratosphere. EUROPEAN AIR TRANSPORT COMMAND responsible for regulatory approvals, Such flagship programs could so all the MRTTs will wear the nation- have “a structuring effect on defense al roundel of the Netherlands. industrial capability in Europe for Five of the aircraft will be based the next couple of decades,” says at Eindhoven Air Base in the Nether- Giegerich. The nations will have to lands, while three more will be lo - reconcile their differences, though cated at a forward operating base in France and Germany, the leading Cologne, Germany. The aircraft will be nations on FCAS, have markedly dif- ruption to [European government] and you can use it to undergird your flown by the Multinational Multirole ferent approaches to defense exports, plans, none of the security problems defense relationship.” > FIRST MRTT ARRIVAL BOOSTS EUROPEAN DEFENSE COOPERATION Tanker Transport Unit (MMU), which doctrine and deterrence. that existed before have gone away,” But buying from the U.S. means is manned by personnel from each of Hopes from industry that the two he notes. countries are exposed to the full force > THE MMF HAS OPTIONS FOR THREE ADDITIONAL MRTTS the participating nations, while oper- of U.S. legislative power. ational activities will be controlled by projects could be combined may be In May, the defense ministers of Tony Osborne London wishful thinking. There may be only a the four major EU states—France, “You can’t have any kind of auton- European Air Transport Command, short window of opportunity for that Germany, Italy and Spain—wrote omy in defense if ultimately Wash- he arrival of the first Airbus ing up for 2,000 and 200 hr. a year, which pools and shares the aerial to happen, perhaps 18-24 months, sug- to European leaders urging their ington is able to veto you, the use of A330 Multi-Role Tanker respectively. They were subsequent- refueling and air transport assets of gests Giegerich, before too many de- nations to strengthen cooperation capabilities or even the exploitation TTransport for the Netherlands- ly joined by Belgium, with 1,000 hr., Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the cisions on each of the projects are fi- through efforts such as PESCO. of technology,” Fiott says. “That’s led Multinational Multirole Tanker Germany with 5,500, and the Czech Netherlands and Spain. nalized. FCAS was born out of French “Security and Defense must there- certainly an issue that [European] and Transport Fleet (MMF) has Republic and Norway for 100 hr. each. But even with the new fleet, Euro- and German ambitions to become fore remain a top priority,” the letter governments are thinking about.” been hailed as transformative for By purchasing hours rather than pean countries will still face shortfalls pillars of European defense. With the states. “We want to live up to our Another concern is that a deep Europe’s aerial refueling capability. platforms, small countries that are in tankers. According to statements entrance of Spain into the initiative, responsibilities and be able to face economic recession in the U.S. could But it arguably also marks a major unable to afford a tanker can still released by the EDA, even with the the program is likely to be eligible for present and upcoming challenges, at prompt Washington to reconsider its step forward for Europe’s defense gain access to one, and the single new MMF fleet, Europe will have support from the EDF in the future. home and abroad. . . . Hence, we have posture in Europe and speed up its cooperation ambitions. fleet slims down the number of dif- the equivalent of 90 Boeing KC-135 It is conceivable that Tempest to maintain, strengthen and develop repivot to China. U.S. plans to with- Unlike other shared assets such ferent tankers being used by the var- Stratotankers but requires the equiv- could benefit from such funding in our ability to act and react autono - draw some 9,000 troops from Ger- as NATO’s E-3A Component for air- ious nations. With the arrival of the alent of around 130-135 KC-135s to the future, too, if the EC allows so- mously, as a Union.” many has sent ripples through NATO. borne early warning and its Hungary- MRTT, the Netherlands will retire its meet the aerial refueling needs of its called third nations. The crisis has prompted govern- The post-COVID-19 era could also based Heavy Airlift Wing, the forma- aging refueling-boom-only McDonnell air services. provide an opportunity to put Europe- tion of the MMF was born out of the Douglas KDC-10s, and Germany will Part of this shortfall could be ad- an defense mechanisms to good use. European Defense Agency (EDA), phase out its hose-drogue-only Airbus dressed with technology such as auto- Reports that the EDF budget would a European Union organization to A310 MRTTs. mated aerial refueling (A3R), a capa- be slashed as a result of the corona- promote closer defense integration. “This is a prime example of Euro- bility being developed by Airbus that virus crisis have proved unfounded. EU defense initiatives are now being pean defense cooperation done in could be retrofitted into the MMU’s

TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST strengthened through programs such close coordination with NATO, which fleet in the future. The MRTT’s A3R France, Germany and Spain are as Permanent Structured Coopera- shows that once a capability shortfall capability is scheduled to be certified cooperating to develop a modernized tion, Preparatory Action on Defense has been jointly identified, European in 2021 (AW&ST May 4-17, p. 51). version of the Airbus Tiger attack Research and the European Defense nations can pull together, work on a The MMU is expected to begin fly- helicopter, and are looking to benefit Industrial Development Program, common project aimed at filling the ing its first operational missions on from EDF funding for the program. both precursors to the European gap and eventually deliver,” says Jiri behalf of the member states starting Defense Fund (see page 44). Sedivy, chief executive of the Europe- in September and will be tasked with The EC plans to invest €9 billion in The EDA identified shortfalls in an Defense Agency. aerial refueling, strategic transport the EDF over the next seven years, Europe’s aerial refueling capability Camille Grand, NATO assistant and aeromedical evacuation flights. down from the originally planned €13 in 2012 after European air forces had secretary general for defense invest- The unit’s second aircraft will arrive billion, although this is still subject to struggled to maintain operations over ment, says the fleet will not only have by the end of this month, while the approvals by EU member states. Kosovo in 1999, Libya in 2011 and Mali a “profound impact” on European third and fourth aircraft are undergo- “There is now a time to make in 2012. They were challenged not air-to-air refueling capacity but also ing conversion by Airbus at its Getafe that argument that the EDF and the only by a lack of tankers but also by “help contribute to a fairer transat- facility near Madrid. How defense cooperation evolves ments to sit up and look at their stra- Euro pean military mobility initiatives operations of too many varied aircraft lantic burden sharing at NATO.” The program may also break is likely to depend on how nations tegic capabilities, critical industries should be fully funded and should types and too few clearances for air- European defense materiel agency ground to be the first MRTT user to be emerge from the COVID-19 pandem- and security of supply, says Fiott, and perhaps even be beefed up compared craft taking fuel from tankers. OCCAR is managing the MMF acqui- equipped with a detachable refueling ic and whether they choose to make may prompt some nations to look to original plans,” says Giegerich. The MMF aims to address these sition phase and the first two years boom that is being developed by Airbus cuts to defense, taking an austerity closer to home again for their defense “The ball is now in the court of the issues. Its eight aircraft—potential- of the Initial In-Service Support on as part of a contract amendment. approach as in 2008, or to reinvigo- relationships. EU member states.” ly expandable to 11 if more nations behalf of the NATO Support and Pro- Usually, the refueling boom would rate their economies with fiscal stim- “The U.S. will always be a go-to “We are really fortunate in having join—will be shared by six European curement Agency (NSPA). Following be a permanent fixture, but the ulus. The arguments for such cuts player when it comes to certain capa- already a lot of initiatives in place,” nations that have paid for a set num- the acquisition phase, the NSPA will amendment calls for the ability to will be challenged in the current envi- bilities,” says Fiott. “Dealing with the says Fiott. “It is not like we have to ber of annual flying hours. be responsible for the life-cycle man- remove the boom to save weight and ronment, suggests Giegerich. “While U.S. on one hand is really good. You waste the next two, three, four years The Netherlands and Luxembourg agement of the fleet. As with other fuel when flying nonaerial refueling COVID is obviously a massive inter- get access to high-tech equipment dreaming up new schemes.” c were the first to take the plunge, sign- NATO-led fleets, the lead nation is missions. c

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 49 INTERVIEW ASTRA RISING Britain’s Royal Air Force is stepping into a period of major transformation as it prepares to introduce the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning platform, Protector unmanned air systems and a more networked approach to operations. But it also faces challenges: The novel coronavirus is a ecting the daily lives of personnel and also threatens the international order, while an upcoming wholesale review of UK foreign policy could reshape

the country’s defense capabilities. Air Chief Marshal CP TIM AURENCEROA AIR ORCE Mike Wigston sat down virtually with Aviation Week’s done is continue to meet our NATO commitments: In April, we deployed London Bureau Chief Tony Osborne to discuss the way ahead. a Typhoon squadron to Lithuania for Baltic Air Policing, which sends an ab- from depth maintenance. Aircraft go solutely crystal clear message to our into depth [maintenance] for a year NATO partners and allies around the sometimes, but I really do need that Baltic that it is a region that matters to aircraft out in a year. So for me, that the UK and that our collective security is as essential as training or recruiting. matters to the UK. I think doing that in The government guidelines apply a COVID environment really reinforc- to us as much as to any organization. es that message.

SAC MATT SMITROA AIR ORCE SMITROA MATT SAC Di erent units have had to take stock We have also moved some exer- and pause for days or weeks to work cises onto a virtual plane. In some through the government guidelines to respects, we’ve probably accelerated ensure as low as practicable risk, and our plans around network exercising, then pick themselves up and get on with less so with squadrons and front-line it. By and large, I am incredibly pleased pilots, but more for our headquarters with the way the force has responded. organization. I’m very comfortable we are doing this We have done that recently with the in a safe way but still delivering air French Air Force. We must also not and space power to protect the nation. lose sight of the fact that our opera- I am not saying that we’re at 100% of tional commitments around the world our capacity—there have been areas have continued—our support helicop- where our throughput is slowed, or ters are in Afghanistan and Mali. And our capacity is limited—but we are in of course, the full range of air power the 60-80% sphere rather than 20-30%. platforms and capabilities are at work AW&ST: How has the RAF risen to I have told the team that if anyone in the Middle East. the COVID-19 challenge?We are is sitting waiting until September for fortunate because day in, day out this to end, you should just forget it. In recent years, we have seen de- we do dangerous, dirty and difficult This could be the situation for the next ployments to Japan and Korea, but things. From a national perspective, 18 months to four years. So for all of more recently that attention has we have had to make sure that we you that are at 70% of full capacity , you been focused on the Euro-Atlantic were contributing to the essential na- need to work out how you make back region. Are you looking again at the tional e ort to slow down the spread that fi nal 30% because this is going to Far East? I can say without a shadow of the virus. Also essential is our Quick be our working environment. This is a of a doubt that we’re going to be con- Reaction Alert in the UK and overseas long-term game now. tinuing that drumbeat of deployments territories, ongoing operations in the out into the Indo-Pacifi c region. This Middle East, human itarian operations Has COVID-19 a ected the exercise year, we have observers on the Five and NATO air policing. My eye is also program and deployments?The Power Defense Arrangement exercis- on the future health of the force—in most signifi cant impact has been on es, like Bersama Padu and Bersama six months, one year, two years. An- our international exercise program Lima. And next year, because it is the other essential consideration is depth because we have not been able to 50th anniversary of the signing of that aircraft maintenance. Having service- move large numbers of people for arrangement between Malaysia, Singa- able aircraft tomorrow is separate training exercises. What we have pore, the UK, Australia and New Zea-

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW

able, as well as swarming drones and system as it is becoming increasingly loyal wingmen. There is also a signifi - obsolescent and has a level of technol- cant investment program for our infra- ogy that is making it di cult to keep it ASTRA RISING structure and our domestic infrastruc- going. It is still operationally relevant ture so we can look after our people today, but we are reluctantly sticking to better. It matters now, and we need to that 2015 decision. There were several Britain’s Royal Air Force is stepping into a period of get on with it now. If we were to talk factors to that, and the capability gap major transformation as it prepares to introduce the about big reshaping themes, the air was one of those. It is a unique capa- force must become data-driven. bility, given the platform that it is on, Boeing E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning platform, We have talked for long enough about but there are other ways that we can The UK’s F-35s, own by Protector unmanned air systems and a more networked an information-enabled air force. This achieve the same e ects—but nothing a joint Royal Air Force/Royal Navy is the point where we’ve got to take that quite matches that airframe. approach to operations. But it also faces challenges: The novel force, will deploy to the Far East step, and that means every part of the On E-3D, we have a phased reduction coronavirus is a ecting the daily lives of personnel and also during 2021 on HMS Queen Elizabeth. enterprise should be network-linked. of the fl eet, drawing it down over the We currently have too many separate next couple of years as we build up the threatens the international order, while an upcoming land, we are going to deploy Voyager systems on too many separate net- [E-7] Wedgetail. If there is a [capability] wholesale review of UK foreign policy could reshape and Typhoon, and I know that there works, so there is an absolute pressing gap, it will be where we are just moving will be warships involved as well. While need to become that network-enabled crews and technicians across. And we the country’s defense capabilities. Air Chief Marshal CP TIM AURENCEROA AIR ORCE it is not yet decided, we have high ambi- force that we have been speaking about haven’t yet fi nalized the plan because Mike Wigston sat down virtually with Aviation Week’s done is continue to meet our NATO tions for where HMS Queen Elizabeth for a long time. We must also step prop- we have not gotten the absolute detail commitments: In April, we deployed and Carrier Strike Group 21 will go, too. erly into the synthetic environment on the Wedgetail delivery. The people London Bureau Chief Tony Osborne to discuss the way ahead. a Typhoon squadron to Lithuania for and utilize what the world of gaming who will be operating and maintaining Baltic Air Policing, which sends an ab- What threats/challenges will face now o ers for the training of not just Wedgetail are largely the same people from depth maintenance. Aircraft go solutely crystal clear message to our the RAF post-COVID? How do you aircrew but for all of our people, all who are operating and maintaining the into depth [maintenance] for a year NATO partners and allies around the characterize them? I think the con- the way [from] mission planning and Sentry, so at some point we’re going to sometimes, but I really do need that Baltic that it is a region that matters to sensus is the pandemic has accelerat- mission rehearsal through to augment- have to switch off Sentry and move aircraft out in a year. So for me, that the UK and that our collective security ed trends that we were already observing the actual live missions. The fi nal people across to Wedgetail, with a is as essential as training or recruiting. matters to the UK. I think doing that in ing. When you think about everything, big shift where we will look di erent training element in that. The government guidelines apply a COVID environment really reinforc- from digitalization and automation all is in space. With significant growth to us as much as to any organization. es that message. the way through to the Great Power in threats to our national interests in What capabilities/systems soon to

SAC MATT SMITROA AIR ORCE SMITROA MATT SAC Di erent units have had to take stock We have also moved some exer- rivalry between China and the U.S., it space, we are already monitoring what be introduced are you most look- and pause for days or weeks to work cises onto a virtual plane. In some holds true that COVID has accelerated is going on. And there is more we can ing forward to getting into ser- through the government guidelines to respects, we’ve probably accelerated things by three, fi ve or up to 10 years. do to build our situational awareness, vice? Tempest is a really important ensure as low as practicable risk, and our plans around network exercising, For us, that will be something of a key but there is no doubt in my mind that program because it is replacing Ty- then pick themselves up and get on with less so with squadrons and front-line theme for the integrated review when in a few years’ time we will be working phoon, but it is also important because it. By and large, I am incredibly pleased pilots, but more for our headquarters that gets going again. actively to protect our national inter- it underpins the future of the British with the way the force has responded. organization. The other big strategic factor is, of ests in space and defend them. defense and aerospace industries. The I’m very comfortable we are doing this We have done that recently with the course, economies. The global econom- UK is world-leading: We are one of a in a safe way but still delivering air French Air Force. We must also not ic impact from COVID will prompt gov- Like many air forces, the RAF has had tiny handful of nations that can still and space power to protect the nation. lose sight of the fact that our opera- ernments to reassess their spending. a challenge with recruitment. How bring together all elements to build a I am not saying that we’re at 100% of tional commitments around the world Also, it will mean that already-fragile is this being addressed? I would sixth-generation combat aircraft. So our capacity—there have been areas have continued—our support helicop- states will probably become even more challenge your question because the when we get to that point, the decision where our throughput is slowed, or ters are in Afghanistan and Mali. And fragile, and regions will become more one thing that we’ve been remarkably to go ahead with building that Future our capacity is limited—but we are in of course, the full range of air power insecure. So there will be a greater role successful at in the last few years is Combat Air System is a national stra- the 60-80% sphere rather than 20-30%. platforms and capabilities are at work for like-minded countries like the UK recruiting. We were on track for 100% tegic decision. AW&ST: How has the RAF risen to I have told the team that if anyone in the Middle East. in protecting global security and help- of o cer recruiting and high 90% for From what I’ve seen, the early work the COVID-19 challenge?We are is sitting waiting until September for ing it back into prosperity. other ranks. on some of the technology that we’re fortunate because day in, day out this to end, you should just forget it. In recent years, we have seen de- Where I have always got my eye going to be fi elding is world-beating. In we do dangerous, dirty and difficult This could be the situation for the next ployments to Japan and Korea, but What are your hopes for the ASTRA is on retention. The RAF is victim to concert with that will be autonomous things. From a national perspective, 18 months to four years. So for all of more recently that attention has initiative? ASTRA is the campaign the ebb and fl ow of the external em- wingmen and the swarming-drones we have had to make sure that we you that are at 70% of full capacity , you been focused on the Euro-Atlantic plan for building the next-generation ployment market, and over the last 10 work that we are doing. Some of the were contributing to the essential na- need to work out how you make back region. Are you looking again at the Royal Air Force. It covers everything years it has been a pretty tough en- results of those swarming trials are tional e ort to slow down the spread that fi nal 30% because this is going to Far East? I can say without a shadow from big equipment programs and in- vironment for us to retain the talent quite remarkable and are exceeding of the virus. Also essential is our Quick be our working environment. This is a of a doubt that we’re going to be con- frastructure to the way we look after we need. By and large we have, but I our early expectations. We have been Reaction Alert in the UK and overseas long-term game now. tinuing that drumbeat of deployments our people and the conceptual compo- would rather see my retention fi gures able to demonstrate that what was a territories, ongoing operations in the out into the Indo-Pacifi c region. This nent, all the way through to grassroots improve a little. very rudimentary early capability is Middle East, human itarian operations Has COVID-19 a ected the exercise year, we have observers on the Five initiatives where people can identify not something we are going to leave on and NATO air policing. My eye is also program and deployments?The Power Defense Arrangement exercis- ways to change the way they go about Is the air force facing a capability gap the shelf until Tempest comes along. on the future health of the force—in most signifi cant impact has been on es, like Bersama Padu and Bersama their business and the way they work. I in its ISTAR eet with the early retire- I’m going to be augmenting Typhoon six months, one year, two years. An- our international exercise program Lima. And next year, because it is the am focused on the Future Combat Air ment of the Sentinel radar reconnais- and [F-35] Lightning [aircraft] with other essential consideration is depth because we have not been able to 50th anniversary of the signing of that System, the replacement for Typhoon, sance platform in March 2021 and the these [capabilities] this decade. And if aircraft maintenance. Having service- move large numbers of people for arrangement between Malaysia, Singa- and how that will operate as a system, E-3D Sentry in 2022? On Sentinel, I can, I’ll have them fl y o the Queen able aircraft tomorrow is separate training exercises. What we have pore, the UK, Australia and New Zea- some elements piloted, some expend- there are challenges in upgrading the Elizabeth alongside the F-35s, too. c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 DEFENSE Tempest’s Global Push

> TEMPEST ACQUISITION PLAN WILL ENTER ASSESSMENT PHASE IN 2021

> TECHNOLOGY IS WIDENING OPTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS

Tony Osborne London

he UK is looking beyond Europe and its traditional part- derstood in terms of the benefits from international partnering for the ners as it pushes toward a critical milestone for the Tem- industrial base, to investing more in Tpest Future Combat Air System. research and development . . . as well as military capability elements.” With deadlines looming to submit a post-Brexit to find future partners He notes that the industry efforts business case for the initiative at the end and customers for the platform. have already led to the creation of some of the year, the UK Defense Ministry “What we are doing is talking to 1,400 jobs even before the program and the Team Tempest industry con- governments about what we’re doing. has entered its next phase, with more sortium of BAE Systems, Leonardo, We are thinking about what their to follow as the program advances. MBDA and Rolls-Royce—which are needs might be, and we are making “If we are coming out of Brexit supporting the UK Future Combat Air sure that we can keep the door open and COVID-19 and want to stand on System Technology Initiative (FCAS for as long as possible in as many dif- a world stage, defense has to matter, TI)—are working to mature technolo- ferent ways as possible so they can and air power has to matter,” says gies and develop a business model that partner with us in a meaningful way,” Chris Boardman, managing director will pave the way for how partner na- Richard Berthon, the UK Defense Min- for BAE Systems’ Air business. tions and industry will interact and istry’s Combat Air Acquisition pro- “I am not complacent,” he says. “I combine their development efforts. gram director tells Aviation Week. do recognize that the coronavirus The aim is to develop a next-gen- There are challenges ahead, however. pandemic has brought big social and eration, low-cost combat aircraft that The aftermath of the novel coronavi- economic problems, but I am confi- could be combined with additive capa- rus pandemic is likely to cast a long dent that the requirement is not go- bilities such as unmanned loyal wing- shadow over public spending, while ing to go away.” men to replace fourth-generation plat- a review of UK foreign and defense For the last five years, the UK has forms like the UK Royal Air Force’s policy may send ripples through plans been reskilling capabilities and devel- Eurofighter Typhoons or the Swedish for future defense capabilities. Yet de- oping technologies through its FCAS Air Force’s early-model Saab Gripens fense and industry officials are confi- TI program that could be fed into a in the mid-2030s, and to do it in at dent that plans for Tempest can prevail future combat aircraft. These efforts least half the time it took to bring the through these challenging times. were finally made public with the un- Eurofighter to front-line service. “I’m confident that there’s a really veiling of the Combat Air Strategy and The UK has global ambitions for strong understanding of the benefits Team Tempest at the 2018 Farnbor- the aircraft and is hoping it can build of investing in Combat Air,” Berthon ough Airshow. Since then, the Brit- on its international relationships explained. “The message is well un- ish government has signed a 10-year

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

and we think our industrial bases different configurations within the are complimentary,” Berthon says. combat air system. “I think that cre- How the nations and industry will ates the opportunity for a lot more work together is still to be formalized, agile partnering,” he says. Tempest’s but Berthon is looking for an “agile and Baseline architecture for Pyramid Under current plans, the architecture was recently completed and shared of the future British combat aircraft organic” approach that is “fast enough to keep pace with the program.” with the Tempest partners, officials should be decided this year. It is “What we shouldn’t do is replicate tell Aviation Week. And even though likely to look very different from the the way we set up [Eurofighter] Ty- its development sits outside the Tem- Global Push designs unveiled two years ago. phoon,” Bone explains, noting that pest development, “it is a fundamental the Eurofighter program’s workshare building block,” Boardman says, not- approach—with each partner-nation ing that BAE has been working on the building elements of every aircraft building blocks for the Tempest for and assembling them in four different the past 15-20 years, mainly through countries—does not lend itself to the its unmanned programs such as the low-cost, export ambitions of Tempest. Mantis, Taranis and Magma. “Having an export-centric plat- Today, the company is further ma- form that can be spiraled to national turing technologies around next-gen- requirement is going to be at the core eration cockpits and payload bays, > TEMPEST ACQUISITION PLAN WILL of what we are trying to do here,” Bone but a key focus is how the Tempest adds. “That is the reason we are de- could be produced. ENTER ASSESSMENT PHASE IN 2021 signing this from the inside out.” “The factory of the future is about The model will need to be able to low volume and low cost . . . how you TECHNOLOGY IS WIDENING OPTIONS adapt to new partners. UK is eying ad- break the norm of the past, which says > ditional nations to join the program, you have to have high volume to get FOR INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS in particular Japan, which is looking low cost,” Boardman explains. for a collaborative partner for a fighter An area of interest for BAE is a pro- Tony Osborne London that will replace the Mitsubishi F-2. cess called cobotics whereby workers “You need to have partners who are cooperate with robotics to complete

TEAM TEMPEST willing to go on the same journey with certain tasks. Specially developed you in a pretty comprehensive sense,” workbenches can be adapted for tasks he UK is looking beyond Europe and its traditional part- derstood in terms of the benefits memorandum of understanding with Berthon explains. “There is also an and assist the workers through a par- from international partnering for the Sweden and agreed on a statement of opportunity for others to partner in ticular process using technologies ners as it pushes toward a critical milestone for the Tem- industrial base, to investing more in intent with Italy, last July and Septem- a way that suits them.” such as augmented reality. Tpest Future Combat Air System. research and development . . . as well ber, respectively. Tempest partners will need to be- Boardman says BAE is already trying as military capability elements.” Studies currently underway with lieve in doing things in a “different out new manufacturing techniques for With deadlines looming to submit a post-Brexit to find future partners He notes that the industry efforts both nations will help identify the re- and more efficient way,” suggests wiring and looming on the Typhoon and business case for the initiative at the end and customers for the platform. have already led to the creation of some quirements of each nation and ensure Boardman, with “less guaranteed testing the cobotic benches at several of the year, the UK Defense Ministry “What we are doing is talking to 1,400 jobs even before the program that the needs of Italy and Sweden are workshare, independent of capability, manufacturing and assembly points. and the Team Tempest industry con- governments about what we’re doing. has entered its next phase, with more understood as the Tempest program more best athletes, more new capabil- At Leonardo, the company’s efforts sortium of BAE Systems, Leonardo, We are thinking about what their to follow as the program advances. proceeds to the next step. ity and more proven TRL [Technol- are focused on a future multifunction MBDA and Rolls-Royce—which are needs might be, and we are making “If we are coming out of Brexit In late July, the Swedish defense ogy Readiness Level] to be able to do array radar, defensive aids and sensor supporting the UK Future Combat Air sure that we can keep the door open and COVID-19 and want to stand on ministry will submit budgetary docu- that activity.” fusion. Late last year, the company re- System Technology Initiative (FCAS for as long as possible in as many dif- a world stage, defense has to matter, mentation to allow it to begin develop- Technology is one of the key en - vealed it had developed radar-warning TI)—are working to mature technolo- ferent ways as possible so they can and air power has to matter,” says ment work on next-generation combat ablers that will allow the Tempest to receiver technologies that are four gies and develop a business model that partner with us in a meaningful way,” Chris Boardman, managing director aircraft between 2021 and 2025, in- keep the “door open to new partners times more accurate than existing will pave the way for how partner na- Richard Berthon, the UK Defense Min- for BAE Systems’ Air business. cluding studies, technology develop- for longer,” Berthon suggests. sensors, are 1/10th the size, and have tions and industry will interact and istry’s Combat Air Acquisition pro- “I am not complacent,” he says. “I ment and demonstrator activities with Although the milestone business considerably reduced power require- combine their development efforts. gram director tells Aviation Week. do recognize that the coronavirus international partners. case will likely narrow down the ments. While the company’s work on The aim is to develop a next-gen- There are challenges ahead, however. pandemic has brought big social and “Discussions are more at the gov- architecture of the aircraft, digital the Captor-E active, electronically eration, low-cost combat aircraft that The aftermath of the novel coronavi- economic problems, but I am confi- ernment, air force and [defense min- technologies mean that some key de- scanned array radar for the Eurofight- could be combined with additive capa- rus pandemic is likely to cast a long dent that the requirement is not go- istry] level at the moment,” explains cisions can be held off until technolo- er uses the gallium arsenide semicon- bilities such as unmanned loyal wing- shadow over public spending, while ing to go away.” Norman Bone, chairman and manag- gies can be matured. ductor, the company is experimenting men to replace fourth-generation plat- a review of UK foreign and defense For the last five years, the UK has ing director of Leonardo UK and the “We can retain more choice for with other materials, including gallium forms like the UK Royal Air Force’s policy may send ripples through plans been reskilling capabilities and devel- head of Leonardo’s defense electron- longer, and that’s really helpful,” Ber- nitride and silicon germanium for fu- Eurofighter Typhoons or the Swedish for future defense capabilities. Yet de- oping technologies through its FCAS ics business. “Industry [from all three thon explains. “The people working ture sensors on the Tempest. Air Force’s early-model Saab Gripens fense and industry officials are confi- TI program that could be fed into a countries] have been talking, but we on Eurofighter had to set a concept Bone says developing the sensors in the mid-2030s, and to do it in at dent that plans for Tempest can prevail future combat aircraft. These efforts have not all been in the room with the decades before the capability would will be a close collaborative effort least half the time it took to bring the through these challenging times. were finally made public with the un- three parties . . . though we are not far enter into service.” with Saab and Leonardo teams in Eurofighter to front-line service. “I’m confident that there’s a really veiling of the Combat Air Strategy and away from that,” he says. One of those systems will be the both the UK and Italy. The UK has global ambitions for strong understanding of the benefits Team Tempest at the 2018 Farnbor- “In Italy and Sweden, we feel we Tempest’s open mission system, the “One will probably take the lead, the aircraft and is hoping it can build of investing in Combat Air,” Berthon ough Airshow. Since then, the Brit- have got something in common . . . BAE Systems-led Pyramid, which, but the other two will be very impor- on its international relationships explained. “The message is well un- ish government has signed a 10-year an aligned view of what is required, according to Berthon, will allow for tant in the design of it, and that will

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 53 DEFENSE

BAE Systems is investing in its vision of a factory of the future that will

BAE SYSTEMS make extensive use of additive manufacturing and cobotics for cheaper production and assembly. “I don’t see this sort of inherent logic that everything must merge together,” Berthon said. “There are many factors around the industrial and technology base and the partnering histories that each of us has globally. . . . The UK has a different military strategy from anywhere else, as does France, as does Germany, and that has driven us to where we want to be.” He notes the requirements of the be the same for most of the key sen- and flight tests during the early 2020s. FCAS are radically different from sor activity,” he says. UK officials dismiss the need to that of the Tempest. Derivatives of the The next step for the Tempest is an merge the Tempest initiative with French, German and Spanish aircraft assessment phase in which the tech- those of France, Germany and Spain’s will need to operate from an aircraft nology developed by the FCAS TI will own FCAS. In June, Airbus Defense carrier and perform the nuclear de- be matured and tested. Then it will be and Space CEO Dirk Hoke told the terrence mission, both of which could demonstrated that it can function as London-based Royal Aeronautical bring additional complexity and cost part of a system, potentially in flight on Society that maintaining two pro - to the program. Team Tempest’s planned Boeing 757 grams in Europe could be a “bad Having two programs in Europe testbed announced last July. That air- solution” for both the UK and the maintains “a degree of competitive craft, to be supplied through a contract European Union, repeating the 1990s pressure on our industries,” Berthon with Leonardo by 2Excel Aviation has error of Europe having three combat suggests. Such competition, he says, already been sourced and is currently aircraft developments in parallel: Eu- has been helpful by not leading Eu- in storage, ready for conversion work rofighter, Gripen and Rafale. rope into a monopoly on supply. c

Additive Technologies Advance for Future UK Air Power Tony Osborne London

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

BAE Systems is investing in its vision Spanish Onboarding Builds Future jointly contributed €155 million ($175 of a factory of the future that will million) to industry for the so-called

BAE SYSTEMS make extensive use of additive manu- Combat Air System Momentum Demonstrator Phase 1A (AW&ST facturing and cobotics for cheaper Feb. 24-March 8, p. 29). Spain will production and assembly. FCAS TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON SEVEN PILLARS throw in an additional €77 million in > the coming weeks. “I don’t see this sort of inherent logic > INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENTS ARE NEGOTIATING FOR This phase aims to identify the that everything must merge together,” DEMONSTRATION PHASE 1B technologies needed and the “best- Berthon said. “There are many factors performing architecture” for the sys- around the industrial and technology Tony Osborne London tem to be taken forward for develop- base and the partnering histories that ment. A decision is expected at the each of us has globally. . . . The UK has panish industry is gearing up pillars of research that are paving end of 2021, after a process that will a different military strategy from any- to play its role in the develop- the way for the development of dem- size the NGF and decide the scale and where else, as does France, as does Sment of the European Future onstrators for the New-Generation types of remote carriers that will be Germany, and that has driven us to Combat Air System. Fighter (NGF), the remote carri- needed to fly alongside it. where we want to be.” As the country’s national Future ers—unmanned air systems that will “We will need to keep some options He notes the requirements of the Combat Air System (FCAS) coordi- accompany the NGF into the fight— open even once we have selected the be the same for most of the key sen- and flight tests during the early 2020s. FCAS are radically different from nator, defense-electronics firm Indra and the adaptive combat cloud net- architecture,” Fichefeux notes. “It is a sor activity,” he says. UK officials dismiss the need to that of the Tempest. Derivatives of the should in the coming weeks join the work that links together the elements long time from 2021 to 2040, and there The next step for the Tempest is an merge the Tempest initiative with French, German and Spanish aircraft initial concept studies, already con- of the FCAS, including weapons. will be a lot of new technologies and

assessment phase in which the tech- those of France, Germany and Spain’s will need to operate from an aircraft AIRBUS DEFENSE AND SPACE nology developed by the FCAS TI will own FCAS. In June, Airbus Defense carrier and perform the nuclear de- be matured and tested. Then it will be and Space CEO Dirk Hoke told the terrence mission, both of which could Airbus’ notional design for the New-Generation Fighter demonstrated that it can function as London-based Royal Aeronautical bring additional complexity and cost is depicted in this concept image operating with small, part of a system, potentially in flight on Society that maintaining two pro - to the program. remote carrier platforms. Team Tempest’s planned Boeing 757 grams in Europe could be a “bad Having two programs in Europe testbed announced last July. That air- solution” for both the UK and the maintains “a degree of competitive craft, to be supplied through a contract European Union, repeating the 1990s pressure on our industries,” Berthon with Leonardo by 2Excel Aviation has error of Europe having three combat suggests. Such competition, he says, already been sourced and is currently aircraft developments in parallel: Eu- has been helpful by not leading Eu- in storage, ready for conversion work rofighter, Gripen and Rafale. rope into a monopoly on supply. c

Additive Technologies Advance for Future UK Air Power Tony Osborne London

BIDDERS PUSHING FOR A ROLE TO BUILD A TECHNOLOGY ted their proposals for the £4.8 million ($6 million) Phase 1. demonstrator for the UK’s Lightweight Affordable Novel Com- The LANCA program is being led by the UK Defense Sci- bat Aircraft (LANCA) are waiting to see if their design propos- ence and Technology Laboratories in conjunction with the als will be approved for the next phase of the initiative. Royal Air Force’s Rapid Capability Office. Three industry teams were selected last summer (AW&ST The UK Defense Ministry is evaluating proposals in readi- July 29-Aug. 18, 2019, p. 18) to take forward development ness for the second phase of the project, called Mosquito, of the LANCA air system, an unmanned air vehicle that could which is worth £30-50 million. Mosquito would see one, act as additive capability accompanying future combat air- possibly two of the candidates being matured into a full-size craft into operations. LANCA would perform a range of tasks, flightworthy demonstrator potentially undertaking a flight-test including serving as a loyal wingman, gathering intelligence program. Aviation Week has been told there was stiff com- or acting as a weapons carrier. The Royal Air Force envi- petition for the LANCA program: Some 45 bidders entered tracted in February to Airbus and The wider FCAS program consists capabilities popping up that we will sions a platform costing 1/10th of current combat aircraft Phase 1 and were subsequently scaled down to nine. Around Dassault Aviation by the governments of six pillars of technology that focus want to include, so we don’t want to and developed in one-fifth of the time. The idea is like that of eight bids were then tendered, of which three were chosen. of Germany and France, respectively. on the NGF, the different remote freeze the design too early.” the Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie for the U.S. Air Force’s Skyborg Few details have emerged about the proposals, although The Spanish industry onboarding carriers, collaborative combat using Industry and the national govern- program, Australia’s Boeing-led Airpower Teaming System Boeing Australia confirmed through social media that it had se- process builds up further momen- the airborne network and propulsion ment have now begun negotiations on and remote carriers for the French, German and Spanish Fu- cured a “first-of-type permit” from the Australian government to tum behind the FCAS initiative to primarily for the NGF, sensors and Demonstrator Phase 1B. This phase ture Combat Air System. share design material for its Airpower Teaming System with the replace the Eurofighters operated by very-low-observability technologies. will build on the work of 1A but will Since then, the industry teams—which include Boeing Phan- UK, suggesting the Boeing proposal may borrow heavily from Germany and Spain and the Dassault A seventh pillar is “interpillar consis- feature a much larger price tag and Rafales flown by France—a project tency,” says Bruno Fichefeux, Airbus’ will prepare technologies for the tom Works International, working with Marshall Aerospace that platform. Progress is also occurring on a drone swarm that was little more than a political head of the Future Combat Air Sys- demonstrator phase, to emerge in and Defence Group and Cranfield University; consortium system announced by former Defense Secretary Gavin William- idea three years ago. tem. “This sits above all the others, Phase 2, which will see flights of tech- Team Black Dawn, Callen-Lenz and Bombardier Belfast; and son in February 2019: Demonstrations in March using five un- In mid-June, Spanish companies to make sure they are not siloed but nology demonstrator aircraft, engines Northrop Grumman UK with Team Avenger, led by Blue Bear manned air vehicles proved a collaborative capability between signed agreements with the country’s coordinated efforts.” and remote carriers in 2026. Around Systems Research and yet to be disclosed partners—submit- the platforms, people close to the program told Aviation Week. c government to work on the seven France and Germany have so far the same time as the flight-test cam-

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paign, Phase 3 will be triggered to Defense, ESG, Hensoldt and Rohde & jammed environments. He says the support the testing of the demon- Schwarz—formed the Future Combat system will be adaptable, depending strators and the beginning of the Mission System consortium to work on on the tactical situation. Close to the initial phase of FCAS development. the networked sensors and systems. front line, the aircraft’s thirst for data According to investor presentations “In each pillar, there is cooperation will be fed by satellite links and com- by Indra, a preliminary design review between the three nations,” Fichefeux munication nodes such as those on will take place in mid-2027, followed explains. As the technology matures, Multi-Role Tanker Transport aircraft. by full development and industrializa- the program will use the “best athlete” In a jammed environment, the critical tion beginning in 2030. principle to define who is best suited node will be the NGF itself, commu- The first three phases of the FCAS to carry out the work, develop the nicating between the remote carriers program are expected to cost around architecture and certify the system. and networked-enabled weapons. €8 billion, the Indra presentation states. “This is currently the governance “This collaboration between the The Spanish government sees the model we are defining for each and drones and between the different program as a “state project,” Secre- every pillar depending on the nation’s fighters in the denied bubble is also tary of State for Defense Angel capabilities,” Fichefeux notes. a combat cloud,” Fichefeux explains. Olivares Ramirez told aerospace busi- Work is progressing on the devel- Industry is exploring a wide range ness leaders on June 17. opment of technologies for FCAS, and of options for the remote carri- “This program has all the charac- efforts on the manned-unmanned- ers, including systems larger than teristics that allow us to venture that those displayed at last year’s Paris we are facing a great technological Air Show, where MBDA and Airbus revolution, which will have consid- “The target of displayed proposed systems around erable effects in the field of defense the size of a large cruise missile. But and in the capabilities of the armed affordability is having Fichefeux says the design space is forces, industry and the civil sphere,” open for larger systems such as that Olivares Ramirez added. He went on a huge impact proposed in Boeing Australia’s Air- to call for Madrid to back the pro - on the design approach and the power Teaming System and the UK’s gram with the funding needed to Lightweight Afford able Novel Com- support it through its initial steps: development logic of the program.” bat Aircraft “Mosquito” work. €110 million in the first year and €250 Whatever the architecture select- million annually beyond. ed, it will apply to all three of the “Confirming the strategic inter- teaming element of the FCAS pro - customer nations. In May 2018, each est in FCAS by Spain, despite the gram have been “really disruptive,” signed off on the High-Level Common pandemic crisis, was a very positive Fichefeux says. Require ments Document, which has statement,” Fichefeux says. “Other nations are following sim- led to a common specification rather There is growing confidence that ilar trends,” he says. “The U.S. and than a differentiated approach for France and Germany also recognize other countries are pushing the de- each nation as on previous programs. the strategic importance of the pro- velopment of loyal wingmen, [which] Since then, the air chiefs of each gram, particularly in the wake of the opens completely new areas for oper- nation, meeting virtually on May 7, COVID-19 pandemic and the likely ational scenarios. These drones can agreed on further cohesion, signed economic impact it will bring. clean or screen the area, minimizing a Common Understanding on Con- Indra will work on the develop - the risk to the fighter.” nectivity to support the development ment of sensors, the combat cloud Onboard intelligent systems will of better interoperability for legacy network and a simulation laboratory help the pilot decide which remote platforms such as the Euro fighter called Simlab with the Spanish Air carrier is best placed to perform a and Rafale to be integrated with the Force. Airbus Defense and Space particular task. FCAS. They have also agreed on com- in Spain will support the develop - Concerns about the levels of artifi- mon operational criteria to support ment of NGF aircraft and work on cial intelligence to be used on FCAS the process of assessing the potential low-observable technologies. ITP have prompted a German debate on architectures. Aero will be involved in engine de - the ethical and responsible use of such Low cost of operation is a key re - velopment, while the Satnus Consor- technology in a combat aircraft. Air- quirement of the nations as well, tium—of GMV, Sener Aeroespacial bus and the Bonn-based Fraunhofer Fichefeux says, in part because the and Tecnobit-Grupo Oesia—will Institute for Communication, Infor- nations want the FCAS system to be work on the unmanned remote car- mation Processing and Ergo nomics successful on the export market. riers. Similar industrial setups have established an independent panel of “The target of affordability is hav- already been established in France experts to help set ethical and inter- ing a huge impact on the design ap - and Germany: MTU and Safran are nationally applicable legal guidelines proach and the development logic of working on the NGF’s future engine, into the FCAS and its onboard systems the program,” Fichefeux says. “We Thales is working with Airbus on the (AW&ST June 1-14, p. 32). plan to fully leverage the capabilities combat cloud, while MBDA is lead- Airbus says it is also furthering its of what digitalization has to provide ing efforts on remote carriers and development of the communications and work on optimizing development engines, given its experience in air- technologies that will support the cycles.” Cost-effectiveness will also be launched weapons. combat cloud, which Fichefeux says a critical factor in the development of Meanwhile, a team of German will still be available to the pilot even the remote carriers, several of which defense electronics firms—Diehl when operating in denied or heavily will be designed to be expendable. c

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE paign, Phase 3 will be triggered to Defense, ESG, Hensoldt and Rohde & jammed environments. He says the support the testing of the demon- Schwarz—formed the Future Combat system will be adaptable, depending U.S. Air Force Launches Fielding strators and the beginning of the Mission System consortium to work on on the tactical situation. Close to the initial phase of FCAS development. the networked sensors and systems. front line, the aircraft’s thirst for data Plan for Skyborg Weapons According to investor presentations “In each pillar, there is cooperation will be fed by satellite links and com- by Indra, a preliminary design review between the three nations,” Fichefeux munication nodes such as those on will take place in mid-2027, followed explains. As the technology matures, Multi-Role Tanker Transport aircraft. by full development and industrializa- the program will use the “best athlete” In a jammed environment, the critical tion beginning in 2030. principle to define who is best suited node will be the NGF itself, commu- The first three phases of the FCAS to carry out the work, develop the nicating between the remote carriers program are expected to cost around architecture and certify the system. and networked-enabled weapons. €8 billion, the Indra presentation states. “This is currently the governance “This collaboration between the The Spanish government sees the model we are defining for each and drones and between the different program as a “state project,” Secre- every pillar depending on the nation’s fighters in the denied bubble is also tary of State for Defense Angel capabilities,” Fichefeux notes. a combat cloud,” Fichefeux explains. Olivares Ramirez told aerospace busi- Work is progressing on the devel- Industry is exploring a wide range ness leaders on June 17. opment of technologies for FCAS, and of options for the remote carri- > AIR FORCE RESEARCH > LEIDOS IS MANAGING THE “This program has all the charac- efforts on the manned-unmanned- ers, including systems larger than LABORATORY PLANS FAMILY OF AUTONOMY MISSION SYSTEM teristics that allow us to venture that those displayed at last year’s Paris SKYBORG UNMANNED we are facing a great technological Air Show, where MBDA and Airbus revolution, which will have consid- “The target of displayed proposed systems around AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS erable effects in the field of defense the size of a large cruise missile. But and in the capabilities of the armed Fichefeux says the design space is affordability is having AFRL VIA YOUTUBE forces, industry and the civil sphere,” open for larger systems such as that Steve Trimble Washington Olivares Ramirez added. He went on a huge impact proposed in Boeing Australia’s Air- to call for Madrid to back the pro - on the design approach and the power Teaming System and the UK’s he next combat aircraft to An Air Force concept of a future “I don’t think it’ll just be fighters,” gram with the funding needed to Lightweight Afford able Novel Com- enter the U.S. Air Force in- Skyborg system depicts an unmanned he says. “I think they’ll fly with bomb- support it through its initial steps: development logic of the program.” bat Aircraft “Mosquito” work. ers. I think they’ll fly with tankers to Tventory will not be a manned aircraft firing an AIM-120 missile from €110 million in the first year and €250 Whatever the architecture select- sixth- generation fighter or even the provide extra defensive capability. million annually beyond. ed, it will apply to all three of the Northrop Grumman B-21. an internal weapons bay, signaling an That’s what I love about their versa- “Confirming the strategic inter- teaming element of the FCAS pro - customer nations. In May 2018, each By fiscal 2023, the Air Force ex - air-to-air role. tility and the fact that we can take est in FCAS by Spain, despite the gram have been “really disruptive,” signed off on the High-Level Common pects to deliver the first operational risks with them.” pandemic crisis, was a very positive Fichefeux says. Require ments Document, which has versions of a new unmanned air - of the Air Force for acquisition, tech- Skyborg is often presented as the statement,” Fichefeux says. “Other nations are following sim- led to a common specification rather craft system (UAS) called Skyborg, nology and logistics. epitome of the “loyal wingman” con- There is growing confidence that ilar trends,” he says. “The U.S. and than a differentiated approach for a provocative portmanteau blending The Skyborg propulsion sys- cept, in which one or multiple UAS are France and Germany also recognize other countries are pushing the de- each nation as on previous programs. the medium of flight with the contrac- tems—including expendable subson- controlled or managed by a manned the strategic importance of the pro- velopment of loyal wingmen, [which] Since then, the air chiefs of each tion for a cybernetic organism. ic and supersonic jet engines—will aircraft to perform a variety of sur- gram, particularly in the wake of the opens completely new areas for oper- nation, meeting virtually on May 7, The Skyborg family of aircraft are be rated with a fraction of the ser - veillance, support and strike tasks COVID-19 pandemic and the likely ational scenarios. These drones can agreed on further cohesion, signed expected to fill an emerging “attrita- vice life expected of a fully reusable during a mission. But the aircraft also economic impact it will bring. clean or screen the area, minimizing a Common Understanding on Con- ble” category for combat aircraft that UAS or manned aircraft. could have the ability to operate inde- Indra will work on the develop - the risk to the fighter.” nectivity to support the development blurs the line between a reusable UAS “We’ll do whatever number of take- pendently of a manned aircraft, with ment of sensors, the combat cloud Onboard intelligent systems will of better interoperability for legacy and a single-use cruise missile. offs and landings they’re ‘spec’d’ for, the capability to launch and recover network and a simulation laboratory help the pilot decide which remote platforms such as the Euro fighter As the aircraft are developed, and then we’ll attrit them out of the hundreds of such systems without the called Simlab with the Spanish Air carrier is best placed to perform a and Rafale to be integrated with the Skyborg also will serve as the test force as targets and just buy them at need for runways or even bases. Force. Airbus Defense and Space particular task. FCAS. They have also agreed on com- case of a radical change in acquisition a steady rate,” Roper says. “If [China and Russia] know that in Spain will support the develop - Concerns about the levels of artifi- mon operational criteria to support philosophy, with ecosystems of collab- Starting in fiscal 2023, a concept they have to target only tens or even ment of NGF aircraft and work on cial intelligence to be used on FCAS the process of assessing the potential orative software coders and aircraft of operations for a formation of four hundreds of ports and airfields, we low-observable technologies. ITP have prompted a German debate on architectures. manufacturers replacing the tradi- Lockheed Martin F-22s will include have simplified their problem,” says Aero will be involved in engine de - the ethical and responsible use of such Low cost of operation is a key re - tional approach with a supply chain Skyborgs as part of the manned air- ACC chief Gen. Mike Holmes. The new velopment, while the Satnus Consor- technology in a combat aircraft. Air- quirement of the nations as well, defined by a single prime contractor. craft’s load-out. class of attritable aircraft, he says, are tium—of GMV, Sener Aeroespacial bus and the Bonn-based Fraunhofer Fichefeux says, in part because the The Air Force also plans to man- “I expect that the pilots, depending designed so that “we can still provide and Tecnobit-Grupo Oesia—will Institute for Communication, Infor- nations want the FCAS system to be age the Skyborg aircraft differently on the mission, [will] decide: Does the relevant high-tempo combat power to work on the unmanned remote car- mation Processing and Ergo nomics successful on the export market. than other UAS. Although Air Com- Skyborg return and land with them be freed up from a runway.” riers. Similar industrial setups have established an independent panel of “The target of affordability is hav- bat Command (ACC) is considering and then go to fight another day, or is it If Skyborg is the future, the devel- already been established in France experts to help set ethical and inter- ing a huge impact on the design ap - the Skyborg family as a replacement the end of its life and it’s going to go on opment phase is set to begin shortly. and Germany: MTU and Safran are nationally applicable legal guidelines proach and the development logic of for pre-Block F-16s after 2025 and a one-way mission?” Roper explains. In The Air Force Research Laborato- working on the NGF’s future engine, into the FCAS and its onboard systems the program,” Fichefeux says. “We MQ-9s after 2030, the aircraft is not some cases, the pilot may decide a tar- ry (AFRL) had anticipated awarding a Thales is working with Airbus on the (AW&ST June 1-14, p. 32). plan to fully leverage the capabilities likely to fit neatly into an existing get is important enough that it is worth contract for the Skyborg Prototyping, combat cloud, while MBDA is lead- Airbus says it is also furthering its of what digitalization has to provide force structure with dedicated Sky- the loss of a Skyborg, even if its service Experimentation and Autonomous ing efforts on remote carriers and development of the communications and work on optimizing development borg squadrons. life has not been used up, he adds. Development program on July 8, engines, given its experience in air- technologies that will support the cycles.” Cost-effectiveness will also be “Even though we call Skyborg an As the concept evolves, a diverse but the deadline passed with no an- launched weapons. combat cloud, which Fichefeux says a critical factor in the development of attritable aircraft, I think we’ll think array of Skyborg aircraft designs will nouncement. Meanwhile, a team of German will still be available to the pilot even the remote carriers, several of which of them more like reusable weapons,” likely find roles beyond the air com- The AFRL already has a stable defense electronics firms—Diehl when operating in denied or heavily will be designed to be expendable. c says Will Roper, assistant secretary bat community, Roper says. of potential concepts. The Kratos

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 57 DEFENSE

“The whole idea was [that] the contested environment is going to be challenging, it’s going to be uncertain, and so it makes the most sense to have something that doesn’t have a pilot in it to go into the battlefi eld fi rst,” Roper says. “But once you agree that’s a self-evident operational concept, it opens up the door for a lot of nontra- ditional thinking for the Air Force.” AFRL VIA YOUTUBE After a 2-3 year experimental phase, the AFRL plans to deliver an early operational capability in fiscal 2023. Follow-on operational Skyborgs could be funded within the Next- Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) project or through a sepa- The Skyborg is an attritable weapon, rate program of record. The Skyborg which means key components such as the concept even has links to the Air jet engine will be designed with a short service life. Force’s architecture for the Advanced Battle - Management System (ABMS). “AttritableONE,” which is defi ned as XQ-58A Valkyrie, which has flown is set up today, but that is not how it having “multirole attritable capabili- four times since March 2019, is the started. Roper created the original ties,” is one of about 30 product lines most visible example of the AFRL’s “Skyborg” term and concept when he in the ABMS architecture. Low-Cost Attritable Aircraft Tech- led the Strategic Capabilities O¦ ce “Skyborg and the AttritableONE nology platform. Meanwhile, the Low- within the Office of the Secretary teams are closely coordinated for Cost Attritable Aircraft Platform- of Defense in 2012-17. Roper trans- planning and collaboration purpos- Sharing project quietly kept several ferred Skyborg to the AFRL, where es,” the AFRL informed industry UAS industry leaders involved in de- it was renamed Avatar. A year after in response to questions about the sign studies, including Boeing, Gen- taking over Air Force acquisition in Skyborg solicitation. eral Atomics Aeronautical Systems 2017, Roper changed the name back The aircraft supplier must deliv- Inc., Lockheed Martin and Northrop to Skyborg and created a program er a highly flexible design. Leidos, Grumman. Each company selected o¦ ce in October 2018. the design agent, will provide the will be awarded a contract with a In March 2019, Roper revealed the maximum value of $400 million over Skyborg concept to a group of report- a fi ve-year ordering period. But the core of the Skyborg program is the software; specifi cally, the

military aviation equivalent of the U AIR FORE algorithm-fed convolutional neural networks that help driv- erless cars navigate on city streets. In announcing Leidos on May 18 as the Skyborg Design Agent (SDA), The Kratos XQ-58A, which achieved rst ight in March 2019, is one of several the AFRL selected the same compa- potential members of the Skyborg UAS family. ny that delivered the software “brain” of the Navy’s Sea Hunter unmanned surface vehicle, which navigated ers a week before the AFRL issued the autonomous mission system that from San Diego to Honolulu in 2018. fi rst request for information to indus- will serve as the pilot, flight control As SDA, Leidos’ role is to deliver a try about the program. At that time, computer and mission systems op- software core that uses artifi cial in- Skyborg was still organized more tra- erator for the aircraft. But the “size, telligence to learn and adapt as the ditionally, with plans to select a single weight, power and cooling details for aircraft fl ies. contractor to serve as a prime integra- the Skyborg core autonomy system The autonomy mission system tor. By early 2020, program o¦ cials have not been finalized,” the AFRL core—as integrated by Leidos from a reorganized Skyborg into modular told the bidding companies. combination of industry and govern- hardware and software subcompo- “The majority of the system will be ment sources—will be inserted into nents built on an open architecture software-based and integrate with the multiple low-cost UAS designed by that requires no prime integrator. sensors onboard the host aircraft,” di¡ erent companies, with each con- As the acquisition strategy has the AFRL says. “Extensive collabo- fi gured to perform a di¡ erent mission evolved, so has the Air Force’s think- ration between the Skyborg system or set of missions. ing about how to use the Skyborg design agent and the participants in That is how the Skyborg program family of systems. this [contract] is expected.” c

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

“The whole idea was [that] the Swiss Fighter Referendum Campaign purchasing a multirole combat aircraft contested environment is going to with a 24-billion-Swiss-franc price tag be challenging, it’s going to be uncer- Gains Momentum over the lifetime of the program is “ir- tain, and so it makes the most sense to responsible” and that the money would have something that doesn’t have a pi- > GOVERNMENT DESCRIBES FRAUGHT THREAT ENVIRONMENT be better used for social programs. The lot in it to go into the battlefi eld fi rst,” campaign also cites concerns about Roper says. “But once you agree that’s > 6 BILLION SWISS FRANCS BUDGETED FOR FIGHTER PURCHASE buying from the U.S. and the “un- a self-evident operational concept, it predictable” administration of Presi- opens up the door for a lot of nontra- Tony Osborne London dent Donald Trump, and asks: “What ditional thinking for the Air Force.” would happen if this angry nationalist AFRL VIA YOUTUBE After a 2-3 year experimental ampaigning has begun in Swit- “Switzerland needs new fighter suddenly decided to ban some states phase, the AFRL plans to deliver zerland for a referendum that jets to protect the population and from using U.S. fighter jets and have an early operational capability in C will decide whether the coun- guarantee aviation security,” Defense software disabled from a distance?” fiscal 2023. Follow-on operational try will purchase new combat aircraft Minister Viola Amherd said as she Four fighters are still in the running Skyborgs could be funded within for the 2030s. launched the campaign. for the Air2030 requirement, including the Next- Generation Air Dominance Voters will go to the polls on Sept. Campaign literature describes a the Eurofighter, which Airbus in Ger- (NGAD) project or through a sepa- 27 and will be asked whether the more fraught threat environment many has proposed. France is pushing The Skyborg is an attritable weapon, rate program of record. The Skyborg landlocked, neutral country, one of which means key components such as the concept even has links to the Air the richest in the world, should renew Switzerland’s remaining 26 F-5E/F Tigers will jet engine will be designed with a short service life. Force’s architecture for the Advanced its fighter fleet. Battle - Management System (ABMS). For the second time in six years, the be replaced as part of the Air2030 program, “AttritableONE,” which is defi ned as country’s voting system will be used along with the air force’s F/A-18 Hornets. XQ-58A Valkyrie, which has flown is set up today, but that is not how it having “multirole attritable capabili- to make a critical decision about air four times since March 2019, is the started. Roper created the original ties,” is one of about 30 product lines defense. Back in 2014, voters were pre- most visible example of the AFRL’s “Skyborg” term and concept when he in the ABMS architecture. sented with a 3.3-billion-Swiss-franc Low-Cost Attritable Aircraft Tech- led the Strategic Capabilities O¦ ce “Skyborg and the AttritableONE ($3.5 billion) proposal to replace the nology platform. Meanwhile, the Low- within the Office of the Secretary teams are closely coordinated for Swiss Air Force’s fleet of Northrop Cost Attritable Aircraft Platform- of Defense in 2012-17. Roper trans- planning and collaboration purpos- F-5 Tigers with the Saab JAS 39C/D Sharing project quietly kept several ferred Skyborg to the AFRL, where es,” the AFRL informed industry Gripen. But voters narrowly rejected UAS industry leaders involved in de- it was renamed Avatar. A year after in response to questions about the the plan: 53% chose to veto the pro- sign studies, including Boeing, Gen- taking over Air Force acquisition in Skyborg solicitation. posals, dramatically resetting plans TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST eral Atomics Aeronautical Systems 2017, Roper changed the name back The aircraft supplier must deliv- for air force modernization (AW&ST Inc., Lockheed Martin and Northrop to Skyborg and created a program er a highly flexible design. Leidos, May 26-June 2, 2014, p. 27). Grumman. Each company selected o¦ ce in October 2018. the design agent, will provide the This time, the decision will be more will be awarded a contract with a In March 2019, Roper revealed the binary. Rather than asking whether a maximum value of $400 million over Skyborg concept to a group of report- particular procurement should go a fi ve-year ordering period. ahead, as it did with both the Grip - than when the Gripen was voted down. the Dassault Rafale, while the U.S. is But the core of the Skyborg pro- en and the earlier F/A-18C/D Hornet “Although there are currently no offering both the Boeing F/A-18E/F gram is the software; specifi cally, the (1993) procurements, the referendum armed conflicts around our country, Super Hornet and the Lockheed Mar- military aviation equivalent of the U AIR FORE question simply asks whether the the security situation is deceptive,” the tin F-35A. All four aircraft underwent algorithm-fed convolutional country should procure new fighters, a literature warns. “The emergence of trials in-country between April and neural networks that help driv- single fleet that will replace the coun- new types of warfare does not supplant June of 2019 (AW&ST April 22-May 5, erless cars navigate on city streets. try’s 30 C/D-model F/A-18 Hornets the old threats but complements them. 2019, p. 34). Both the U.S. Raytheon In announcing Leidos on May 18 and 26 Northrop F-5E/F Tigers. These dangers therefore require a vari- Patriot and the French-Italian Euro- as the Skyborg Design Agent (SDA), The Kratos XQ-58A, which achieved rst ight in March 2019, is one of several Switzerland has budgeted 8 billion ety of answers and defense strategies.” sam SAMP/T long-range surface-to-air the AFRL selected the same compa- Swiss francs for the Air2030 program, The “No to New Fighter Jets” cam- missile have also been evaluated. potential members of the Skyborg UAS family. ny that delivered the software “brain” which in addition to aircraft will also paign does not rule out the need for an The No campaign’s literature cites of the Navy’s Sea Hunter unmanned introduce a long-range, ground-based air defense capability but argues that issues with all four fighter candidates, surface vehicle, which navigated ers a week before the AFRL issued the autonomous mission system that air defense system. The latter is not a smaller and lighter aircraft such as with particular criticism reserved for from San Diego to Honolulu in 2018. fi rst request for information to indus- will serve as the pilot, flight control the subject of the referendum. the Korean Aerospace Industries T-50/ the F-35 and the ongoing challenges As SDA, Leidos’ role is to deliver a try about the program. At that time, computer and mission systems op- The country’s Federal Council has FA-50 or the Leonardo M-346 jet train- associated with availability, security software core that uses artifi cial in- Skyborg was still organized more tra- erator for the aircraft. But the “size, approved the plans with 6 billion ers—as few as 12—would have achieved and cost of operation. The Super Hor- telligence to learn and adapt as the ditionally, with plans to select a single weight, power and cooling details for Swiss francs budgeted for the fight- the desired capability at lower cost net is being slammed for its physical aircraft fl ies. contractor to serve as a prime integra- the Skyborg core autonomy system ers and 2 billion Swiss francs for the and in a more environmentally and size, leading to questions about the The autonomy mission system tor. By early 2020, program o¦ cials have not been finalized,” the AFRL ground-based system. Selection is noise-friendly way. But the No cam- need for extensive modernization to core—as integrated by Leidos from a reorganized Skyborg into modular told the bidding companies. expected either at the end of 2020 or paign claims that the Swiss Department infrastructure, while questions about combination of industry and govern- hardware and software subcompo- “The majority of the system will be during early 2021. of Defense, Civil Protection and Sport the Eurofighter relate to operational ment sources—will be inserted into nents built on an open architecture software-based and integrate with the The government-backed “Security- has not considered such an option. concerns in Germany and alleged cor- multiple low-cost UAS designed by that requires no prime integrator. sensors onboard the host aircraft,” Yes” campaign says that voting against The No campaign, whose logo con- ruption around Austria’s procurement di¡ erent companies, with each con- As the acquisition strategy has the AFRL says. “Extensive collabo- the proposals could leave the country’s sists of a silhouette of a Lockheed Mar- of the platform. The critique for the fi gured to perform a di¡ erent mission evolved, so has the Air Force’s think- ration between the Skyborg system airspace unprotected after 2030 as tin F-35 emblazoned with the word “No” French Rafale is more reserved, how- or set of missions. ing about how to use the Skyborg design agent and the participants in both the Hornets and Tigers reach the in Switzerland’s three main languages of ever, citing weapons-release issues That is how the Skyborg program family of systems. this [contract] is expected.” c end of their useful lives. French, German and Italian, argues that during operations over Syria. c

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 59 INTERVIEW

BOEING PHOTOS

Boeing defense chief Leanne Caret and outgoing Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. BUILDING TRUST David Goldfein have been working to fix the remote vision system of the KC-46 Leanne Caret, president and CEO of Boeing Defense, (background) by fiscal 2023. Space and Security, spoke via teleconference with creases. We have always planned that Aviation Week editors in the run-up to what would at some point we could see a regression have been the Farnborough Airshow. in defense budgets. Wall Street is expecting about a 2% AW&ST: In addition to the turnover How has COVID-19 affected the goals increase in revenue for Boeing over among Boeing executives, the com- that Boeing Defense set at the start the next couple of years. That is on pany’s stock and reputation have of the year? The defense industry has the lower end of where your peers taken a beating in the past year. How been deemed mission-essential. We are. They are in the mid-single dig- is Boeing a different company today need to make certain we’re continuing its. What rate of growth do you see? than it was 18 months ago? I am con- to deliver product to our customers, we I think it’s important to note where fident in the Boeing Co., and we have keep our supply base healthy, and we we are in the life cycle of many of the an enormously bright future. It’s be - all have an eye to the future. I really products in our portfolio. Where you cause of the incredible women and appreciate the partnership and conver- will continue to see opportunity for us men who work for this company and sations we’ve had with the Pentagon. as we move into production on some bring their best every day. We have You’ve heard [Boeing CEO/President] of those key franchise programs that become a very introspective compa- David Calhoun mention that, after what we won a few years ago is the [T-7 ny, very pragmatic. We’re owning our has happened in the commercial aero- advanced trainer, MQ-25 unmanned mistakes, and we’re committing to space market, the defense business is carrier-based refueling aircraft and address those. That is the centerpiece important to the Boeing Co.—has been MH-139 helicopter]. of what you have to do to have trust, and always will be. We’re all going to see the marketplace especially in an industry as critically adjust as a result of COVID-19. Around important as ours is, where people are After COVID-19, what does the future the world, we’ve already seen some de- flying and using our products every hold for defense spending? We have lays and some very large competitions day, whether commercially or defend- a very pragmatic view of the future. I that have been slighted because cus- ing nations and allies. don’t anticipate significant budget in- tomers are having to assess where they

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW

are. I want our team to have as its cen- want to do as a company, and I’m really What is the outlook for the F-15? terpiece meeting our customers’ needs proud of the team for leading the way. We just did our F-15 Qatar flight a few and expectations, and I believe that the weeks back. We have continued to outcome of that will be growing the busi- Is Boeing on track for fixing the KC- demonstrate the ability of the F-15 with ness and strong financial performance. 46’s remote vision system (RVS) in our Saudi and Qatari customers and fiscal 2023? We are looking to demon- the U.S. Air Force. We’re really excited Many big programs are coming down strate RVS 1.5 later this summer. It is a about that opportunity, and it won’t be the line, such as the Low-Cost Attri- building block to what we call RVS 2.0. your grandma’s F-15. table Aircraft, the Advanced Battle We have put in place a standard and Management System, the Next- an agreement that we are all aligned Boeing is a bit late on delivering the Generation Air Dominance or the around, that really transcends what the Space Launch System (SLS), and it Future Vertical Lift programs. The original contract anticipated in terms was left out of NASA’s competition Pentagon is emphasizing procure- of RVS. What we are incorporating to build a lunar lander. What are ment with more control over intel- posi tions this fleet for not only a leap you doing to turn those programs lectual property, fewer hooks into forward in technology but for around? On Space Launch Systems, the sustainment phase and more autonomous operations in the I am really proud of the team for the competition. How will Boeing adapt future. We are on track in amazing capabilities they developed to that over time? Will it require with the world’s largest rocket. She’s fundamental changes? In the last sitting on the stand at decade, we were focused on rede- Stennis Space Center. fining how we designed and built After watching how this aircraft. We were anticipating team has battled through that the customer was the COVID crisis, I’m going to commoditize looking forward to having the type of product a hot-fire [test] later this that we have tradi- year. Early on, we tionally built. We have struggled on SLS a foundation in model-based from an exe- systems engineering to bring the cution phase. BOEING PHOTOS Boeing hopes its T-7A advanced collective best from industry together, There were also so that when a system is in the field, trainer will boost the defense different challenges from a funding Boeing defense chief Leanne Caret and we have developed it with maintainers division’s financial performance. perspective and other things. Over outgoing Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. in mind. the course of the last 1.5-2 years, the BUILDING TRUST David Goldfein have been working to fix That’s where our build process has this partnership with the U.S. Air Force team has been hitting its milestones the remote vision system of the KC-46 really paid off. In 2016, we had not won and the Air Force Research Laboratory. and commitments. Leanne Caret, president and CEO of Boeing Defense, (background) by fiscal 2023. the T-7 or MQ-25 contracts or certainly And yes, the timeline is in 2023. Space and Security, spoke via teleconference with not had any thought of the F-15EX yet. On the civil space side, SpaceX beat creases. We have always planned that All three of those used this concept, What is the outlook for selling F-18s Boeing to the punch on the first Aviation Week editors in the run-up to what would at some point we could see a regression which is to use advanced engineering internationally, given the potential for Commercial Crew mission. Are you have been the Farnborough Airshow. in defense budgets. and design toolsets to address the cus- pandemic-related budget reductions looking to change your approach? tomer’s vision. We placed our bets on in the future? We’ve secured a number On Starliner, we did not execute the Wall Street is expecting about a 2% changing the way we did business, and of orders with F-18s that have kept our full mission profile, and the right thing AW&ST: In addition to the turnover How has COVID-19 affected the goals increase in revenue for Boeing over we have positioned ourselves nicely. production line hot. Coupled with that, to do is to refly. I think that’s the right among Boeing executives, the com- that Boeing Defense set at the start the next couple of years. That is on we’re doing the service life moderniza- decision, and the teams are focused pany’s stock and reputation have of the year? The defense industry has the lower end of where your peers Please update us on the KC-46. Where tion program with the U.S. Navy, where on that. Our partnership with NASA taken a beating in the past year. How been deemed mission-essential. We are. They are in the mid-single dig- do things stand with the foreign ob- we’re bringing every one of the aircraft dates back more than 60 years, and is Boeing a different company today need to make certain we’re continuing its. What rate of growth do you see? ject debris (FOD) situation? I’m not back through and increasing capabili- we’re incredibly proud of this heri - than it was 18 months ago? I am con- to deliver product to our customers, we I think it’s important to note where going to be happy until we’re perfect, ties that eventually will include Block tage. But our future isn’t defined by fident in the Boeing Co., and we have keep our supply base healthy, and we we are in the life cycle of many of the and we’re not perfect yet. My focus is 3 capabilities. We have seen signs that our past. It’s about making certain that an enormously bright future. It’s be - all have an eye to the future. I really products in our portfolio. Where you to make sure we don’t deliver any air- campaigns in Canada, Finland, Germa- we can continue to innovate and deliv- cause of the incredible women and appreciate the partnership and conver- will continue to see opportunity for us craft with FOD to the U.S. government. ny, India and Switzerland are sliding a er today. This year marks 20 years for men who work for this company and sations we’ve had with the Pentagon. as we move into production on some If that means I need to hold back a de- bit to the right. None of them have been, the International Space Station. bring their best every day. We have You’ve heard [Boeing CEO/President] of those key franchise programs that livery because a member of our team to my knowledge, canceled or stopped. I just couldn’t be more thrilled for become a very introspective compa- David Calhoun mention that, after what we won a few years ago is the [T-7 identified an issue, we’re going to do One of the things that we’ve seen the team as Doug [Hurley] and Bob ny, very pragmatic. We’re owning our has happened in the commercial aero- advanced trainer, MQ-25 unmanned the right thing. The most important them dealing with is the impact of [Behnken] were able to join the other mistakes, and we’re committing to space market, the defense business is carrier-based refueling aircraft and thing is to deliver a perfect product to COVID. Many times, they have the bud- astronauts aboard this station. Human address those. That is the centerpiece important to the Boeing Co.—has been MH-139 helicopter]. the customer. I think it is a testament get, but the budget may go out a longer space exploration is not for the faint of what you have to do to have trust, and always will be. We’re all going to see the marketplace to the steps that we have taken that we period of time. Or right now they are of heart. It changes mankind. We are especially in an industry as critically adjust as a result of COVID-19. Around will not pass a defect to our customer. impacted by staff shortages. These are going to continue to be a great partner, important as ours is, where people are After COVID-19, what does the future the world, we’ve already seen some de- It speaks to the culture change that we some big opportunities, and I think the and we’re going to continue to advocate flying and using our products every hold for defense spending? We have lays and some very large competitions have instituted over the last 1.5 years. F-18 is positioned nicely, both from the for everyone’s success when it comes to day, whether commercially or defend- a very pragmatic view of the future. I that have been slighted because cus- Quite frankly, we have used KC-46 as aspects of an acquisition cost and the human space exploration—because it ing nations and allies. don’t anticipate significant budget in- tomers are having to assess where they the bully pulpit to redefine what we cost per flying hour. is that important for all of us. c

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 61 SPACE > Mars landers map p. 66 Three 2020 Mars missions p. 68 China’s Mars rover p. 69 UK’s OneWeb purchase p. 70 NEXT STOP JEZERO CRATER

The Hubble Space Telescope caught this view of Mars from 54 million mi. away in 1999.

ment based on navigation position, re- > ROVER EXPECTED TO LAND ON FEB. 18, 2021 sulting in a smaller landing target. The other is Terrain Relative Navigation, ANCIENT RIVER DELTA FIRST TARGET FOR STUDY an autopilot that can determine the > spacecraft’s position over the Martian surface by comparing images from a Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral downward-pointing camera on the rover with stored images taken by Mars NASA/ESA orbiters. It then quickly selects the he most important thing about Jezero Crater, the landing best reachable, safe landing site and site for NASA’s upcoming Mars 2020 Perseverance rover commands the spacecraft’s descent stage to fly to that point. The system mission, is that billions of years ago it was Jezero Lake, a can change the rover’s touchdown deep body of water replenished by rain, ice or snow that point by up to 2,000 ft. T “In the very last stages of descent, may have teemed with microbial life. Mars 2020 has the ability to steer The lake is long gone—a victim of the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity away from any hazards. We didn’t have Mars’ extreme climate change—but rover, which arrived at Gale Crater in that,” says Curiosity project scientist microfossils may be locked inside August 2012, Perseverance will make a Ashwin Vasavada. Jezero’s spectacularly preserved riv- parachute, retrorocket and sky crane Perseverance, NASA’s fifth Mars er delta, where the rover’s mission will descent, touching down on the flat floor rover, closely resembles Curiosity, begin, and other sites such as potential of Jezero Crater on Feb. 18, 2021. whose mission was to determine if the ancient hot springs on the rim of the Engineers at the Jet Propulsion Lab- planet most like Earth in the Solar Sys- 28-mi.-wide (45-km) crater. oratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, tem ever had the ingredients for life. Perseverance is scheduled to launch added two new technologies for Perse- “NASA has had a very deliberate, from Cape Canaveral AFS between verance’s entry, descent and landing. strategic Mars exploration program, July 30 and mid-August aboard a Unit- One is Range Trigger, which will be with a combination of orbiters and ed Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Like used to time the parachute’s deploy- landers and rovers,” says Vasavada.

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE > Mars landers map p. 66 Three 2020 Mars missions p. 68 China’s Mars rover p. 69 UK’s OneWeb purchase p. 70

This image of Jezero Crater captured ing about 125 meteorites that came by instruments on NASA’s Mars from Mars, they have longed to analyze NEXT STOP pristine Martian rocks and soils. “Sam- Reconnaissance Orbiter shows spectral ples from Mars have the potential to data pointing to minerals altered by profoundly change our understanding water in and around the ancient delta. of the origin, evolution and distribution of life on Earth and elsewhere in the in the habitability of Mars . . . as we’ve Solar System,” says Lori Glaze, NASA JEZERO climbed layer by layer up through Planetary Science Division director. Mount Sharp,” says Vasavada. “Even now, NASA continues to Curiosity has covered more than study Moon samples brought back 1,300 ft. of stratigraphy, representing by the Apollo program more than hundreds of thousands to millions of 50 years ago,” she adds. “We expect CRATER years of Mars’ history. “There is basi- samples of the red planet to provide cally a continual record of lake sedi- new knowledge for decades to come ments. That tells us there was per- as we study them with state-of-the- sistent liquid water in ancient Mars, art laboratory equipment we couldn’t and that’s about the best-case scenario possibly take to Mars right now.” in terms of what we thought might be on Mount Sharp,” says Vasavada. ‘WELCOME TO JEZERO’ “We’re very optimistic to take the Jezero Crater is located at 18.4 deg. next step to look directly for signs of N. Lat., 77.7 deg. E. Long. in the Nili ancient life,” he says. Fossae region of Mars, straddling the area between the planet’s heavily cra- EXTRAORDINARY CLAIMS tered southern highlands and the flat- Astronomer and astrobiologist Carl ter regions of the north. Sagan once famously said “extraor- Perseverance’s landing site on the dinary claims require extraordinary crater’s flat floor is just east of a dra- evidence,” a mantra NASA intends matic, fan-shaped ancient river delta NASA/JPL-CALTECH/ASU to fully embrace in its first attempt to that orbital data shows is replete with “The rovers, in particular, were sent find life on Mars since the Viking mis- clays. Deltas form when rivers en- The Hubble Space Telescope caught to follow up on the things we saw from sions. So while Perseverance will ana- ter open bodies of water and deposit this view of Mars from 54 million mi. orbit and some of the big questions lyze rocks and soils in situ for potential rocks, sand and potentially organic away in 1999. we’ve always had about the presence chemical and geomorphic fingerprints carbon in layers. of liquid water on ancient Mars and of life, it will pack up 30-38 of the best Jezero Crater once held a lake filled ment based on navigation position, re- the possibility of life.” samples for a return trip to Earth on to a depth of up to 820 ft. by at least > ROVER EXPECTED TO LAND ON FEB. 18, 2021 sulting in a smaller landing target. The Following the 1997 Mars Pathfinder a later mission. two river systems stemming from other is Terrain Relative Navigation, mission, the Spirit and Opportunity “Our bar is high for the identification the Nili Fossae region. The lake was ANCIENT RIVER DELTA FIRST TARGET FOR STUDY an autopilot that can determine the rovers were dispatched to confirm the of a sign of life on another planet—as it about the size of Lake Tahoe in the U.S. > spacecraft’s position over the Martian present of past liquid water. Those rov- should be,” says Katie Stack Morgan, Sierra Nevada mountain range. surface by comparing images from a ers, which operated from 2004 to 2018, Perseverance deputy project scientist. “An ancient lake is a fantastic place Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral downward-pointing camera on the rov- led to a broader quest by the Curiosity “But I think we also have to open our to pursue our goal of looking for possi- er with stored images taken by Mars rover to assess other factors for habit- minds to the possibilities of what life ble Martian life,” says project scientist NASA/ESA orbiters. It then quickly selects the ability, such as the presence of carbon could look like on another planet.” Ken Farley. “On Earth, lakes are filled he most important thing about Jezero Crater, the landing best reachable, safe landing site and and other organic molecules. Scientists will be scanning for pat- with living creatures, and evidence of site for NASA’s upcoming Mars 2020 Perseverance rover commands the spacecraft’s descent “At the time, we weren’t confident terns, textures and substances that that life is often preserved in the mud stage to fly to that point. The system enough to kind of repeat Viking and cannot be readily explained without and sand deposited on the bottom of mission, is that billions of years ago it was Jezero Lake, a can change the rover’s touchdown send something directly to go discov- the influence of life. “Every time we the lake. So we use the rovers’ instru- deep body of water replenished by rain, ice or snow that point by up to 2,000 ft. er life somewhere,” says Vasavada. see something on the surface of Mars ments to explore the rocks in the an- T “In the very last stages of descent, “We wanted to learn more about what that gets us asking those questions, cient lake bed.” may have teemed with microbial life. Mars 2020 has the ability to steer makes an environment habitable, and we go through the list of possibilities,” At some point, Jezero Lake breached The lake is long gone—a victim of the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity away from any hazards. We didn’t have if any of those environments ever ex- says Morgan. its northeast rim and water flowed out, Mars’ extreme climate change—but rover, which arrived at Gale Crater in that,” says Curiosity project scientist isted on Mars.” “If we get to the point where we are creating an open lake system with both microfossils may be locked inside August 2012, Perseverance will make a Ashwin Vasavada. Curiosity, whose mission is ongoing, really struggling to explain a phenom- inlet and outlet streams. Jezero’s spectacularly preserved riv- parachute, retrorocket and sky crane Perseverance, NASA’s fifth Mars has found carbon and minerals altered enon or something that we see with Jezero Crater, located on the inner er delta, where the rover’s mission will descent, touching down on the flat floor rover, closely resembles Curiosity, through long-lasting water, setting abiotic processes, that’s when we start rim of one of the largest and oldest begin, and other sites such as potential of Jezero Crater on Feb. 18, 2021. whose mission was to determine if the the stage for Perseverance, the first to say, ‘I think this could be a potential impact basins on the surface of Mars, ancient hot springs on the rim of the Engineers at the Jet Propulsion Lab- planet most like Earth in the Solar Sys- life-detection mission since the 1976- biosignature,’” she adds. “Our job is to also contains some of the most an- 28-mi.-wide (45-km) crater. oratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, tem ever had the ingredients for life. 80 Viking missions. identify things that are worthy of ad- cient rocks in the Solar System, 3.5-4 Perseverance is scheduled to launch added two new technologies for Perse- “NASA has had a very deliberate, Curiosity’s landing site features a ditional study on Earth with the full billion years old, as well as a record of from Cape Canaveral AFS between verance’s entry, descent and landing. strategic Mars exploration program, 3.4-mi.-high mountain, called Mount arsenal of analytical capabilities that diverse geologic processes, including July 30 and mid-August aboard a Unit- One is Range Trigger, which will be with a combination of orbiters and Sharp, rising from the floor of Gale we have here in our laboratories.” volcanism, impact cratering and prop- ed Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Like used to time the parachute’s deploy- landers and rovers,” says Vasavada. Crater. “We’ve found really no break Though scientists have been study- erties associated with surface and sub-

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 63 NASA/JPL-CALTECH

surface water, which reveals how the organic carbon. But we haven’t been planet evolved over time. able to necessarily link the presence It also sports carbonate minerals of the organics . . . to particular tex- around the crater’s inner rim. Carbon- tures or patterns that we see in the ates can form in shallow lakes, another rock that we think could have been potential site for life. left behind by life,” says Morgan. “It’s “Part of the reason we picked Jezero the connection of the textures and the Crater as the landing site was because composition that allow us to make a it has such a well-understood environ- compelling case for a biosignature. ment that we could see and understand The instruments on Perseverance from orbital images alone,” says Mor- allow us to do that really for the first gan. “We know we have a delta, we time on the surface of Mars.” know we had a lake in Jezero Crater, A NASA orbiting sample container The Mars 2020 mission also in- and we know this crater is perched on like this concept model will hold cludes two technology demonstra- the rim of a giant impact basin. . . . That tubes of Martian rock and soil tions: a small helicopter, which will at- really helps us plan and plot out the samples collected by Perseverance tempt the first aerial flight on another course of our sampling exploration. and returned on a future mission. planet, and an experiment to convert “We think that Jezero was home to a carbon dioxide pulled from Mars’ variety of different potential habitable “This is exactly the type of thing atmo sphere into oxygen. The test environments,” she adds. “We don’t that we do here on Earth to make a could lead to instruments to support know for sure what biosignatures on case for biosignatures in our own rock human missions to Mars, providing air Mars are going to look like, but we can records. And for the very first time . . . for breathing and propellant for fuel. look to our own Earth rock record to we can do that on the surface of Mars,” After Perseverance explores the give us an example of what we might she adds. ancient river delta, it will attempt to expect to find.” In addition to caching samples visit the shoreline of the ancient lake For example, a 3.4-billion-year-old for return to Earth, a multinational, and then on to the crater’s rim. “Jezero rock from Australia has been found to multimission campaign planned for Crater formed when a large object contain stromatolites, which is a fossil- 2026-32, Perseverance will address collided with Mars, excavating rocks ized microbial mat built layer by layer some overarching science questions, from deep in the Martian crust,” says in shallow water. such as how the surface and climate of Farley. “Those rocks would have been “If you look at that rock you wouldn’t Mars evolved over time and how rocky hot shortly after the impact. . . . De- know for sure that it was a potential planets form and differentiate. posits from any hot springs would be biosignature. But when you couple Perseverance is outfitted with a pay- another target in our search for possi- the textures as well as the chemical load of seven instruments, including ra- ble ancient life on Mars.” composition, the mineralogy and the dar to study the subsurface and chem- NASA has invested approximate- distribution of organic carbon, you can ical-mapping instruments attached to ly $2.4 billion to build and launch the start to build a case that rock could the end of the rover’s robot arm. Mars 2020 Perseverance mission. Op- only have formed under the influence “Curiosity has the ability to detect erating costs during its two-year pri- of life,” says Morgan. organic carbon, and it has detected mary mission are about $300 million. c

Perseverance is outfitted with seven science instruments to find and gather rock and soil samples that could reveal if ancient Mars had microbial life. NASA/JPL-CALTECH

64 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST NASA/JPL-CALTECH surface water, which reveals how the organic carbon. But we haven’t been Aviation Week’s Virtual Global Networking planet evolved over time. able to necessarily link the presence It also sports carbonate minerals of the organics . . . to particular tex- and Learning Event for the Urban Air Mobility around the crater’s inner rim. Carbon- tures or patterns that we see in the ates can form in shallow lakes, another rock that we think could have been and eVTOL Communities. potential site for life. left behind by life,” says Morgan. “It’s “Part of the reason we picked Jezero the connection of the textures and the Crater as the landing site was because composition that allow us to make a it has such a well-understood environ- compelling case for a biosignature. ment that we could see and understand The instruments on Perseverance from orbital images alone,” says Mor- allow us to do that really for the first gan. “We know we have a delta, we time on the surface of Mars.” know we had a lake in Jezero Crater, A NASA orbiting sample container The Mars 2020 mission also in- VIRTUAL and we know this crater is perched on like this concept model will hold cludes two technology demonstra- the rim of a giant impact basin. . . . That tubes of Martian rock and soil tions: a small helicopter, which will at- AUGUST 11-13, 2020 really helps us plan and plot out the samples collected by Perseverance tempt the first aerial flight on another course of our sampling exploration. and returned on a future mission. planet, and an experiment to convert Join the best and brightest from “We think that Jezero was home to a carbon dioxide pulled from Mars’ variety of different potential habitable “This is exactly the type of thing atmo sphere into oxygen. The test across the global Urban Air Mobility sector. environments,” she adds. “We don’t that we do here on Earth to make a could lead to instruments to support Network with suppliers and access know for sure what biosignatures on case for biosignatures in our own rock human missions to Mars, providing air knowledge from industry leadership. Mars are going to look like, but we can records. And for the very first time . . . for breathing and propellant for fuel. Conﬁ rmed Speakers include: look to our own Earth rock record to we can do that on the surface of Mars,” After Perseverance explores the give us an example of what we might she adds. ancient river delta, it will attempt to expect to find.” In addition to caching samples visit the shoreline of the ancient lake For example, a 3.4-billion-year-old for return to Earth, a multinational, and then on to the crater’s rim. “Jezero rock from Australia has been found to multimission campaign planned for Crater formed when a large object contain stromatolites, which is a fossil- 2026-32, Perseverance will address collided with Mars, excavating rocks ized microbial mat built layer by layer some overarching science questions, from deep in the Martian crust,” says in shallow water. such as how the surface and climate of Farley. “Those rocks would have been “If you look at that rock you wouldn’t Mars evolved over time and how rocky hot shortly after the impact. . . . De- know for sure that it was a potential planets form and differentiate. posits from any hot springs would be biosignature. But when you couple Perseverance is outfitted with a pay- another target in our search for possi- the textures as well as the chemical load of seven instruments, including ra- ble ancient life on Mars.” Simon Brienco Parimal (PK) Tom Prevot Megan Prichard composition, the mineralogy and the dar to study the subsurface and chem- NASA has invested approximate- Lead, Advanced Air Mobility, Kopardekar PhD Director of Engineering for Launch General Manager, Jaunt Air Director, NASA Aeronautics Airspace Systems, Uber Uber distribution of organic carbon, you can ical-mapping instruments attached to ly $2.4 billion to build and launch the Research Institute (NARI), start to build a case that rock could the end of the rover’s robot arm. Mars 2020 Perseverance mission. Op- NASA Ames Research Center only have formed under the influence “Curiosity has the ability to detect erating costs during its two-year pri- of life,” says Morgan. organic carbon, and it has detected mary mission are about $300 million. c

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64 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE Mars Landers, Past and Future

o far, the U.S. has been the only country to successfully and Europe to once again explore the planet most like Earth land and operate spacecraft on Mars, dispatching in the Solar System. Mars is half the size of Earth but has Seight rovers and landers to the red planet since the about the same amount of surface area as its dry land mass. 1976 Viking missions. The U.S. also has had one landing fail- The Planetary Society, a Pasadena, California-based ure. The European Space Agency attempted two landings space exploration advocacy organization, compiled this on Mars, both unsuccessful. Russia sent three landers to map of Mars landing sites and likely crash sites. It is the Mars in the early 1970s, one of which touched down suc- first compilation to include landing-site elevation data. The cessfully but then ceased communications. base topographical images were assembled from data col- Here is a look at missions that have landed and attempted to lected by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter instrument on land on Mars, as well as upcoming projects by the U.S., China the now-defunct Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft. —Irene Klotz, Cape Canaveral

Successes, Failures and Future Viking 2 NASA lander Launched: Sept. 9, 1975 Landed: Sept. 3, 1976 Last contact: April 11, 1980 Utopia Planitia 47.643 deg. N., 134.288 deg. E., -4,495 m Perseverance NASA rover Launch: expected July 30, 2020 Landing: expected Feb. 18, 2021 Jezero Crater 18.4386 deg. N., 77.5031 deg. E., -2,640 m Beagle 2 ESA lander Spirit No contact since separation NASA rover June 10, 2003 Launched: June 2, 2003 Launched: Jan. 3, 2004 Last contact: Dec. 25, 2003 Landed: 7.73 km Isidis Planitia Roved: 11.5288 deg. N., 90.4314 deg. E., Last contact: March 22, 2010 -3,725 m Gusev Crater 14.5692 deg. S., InSight 175.4729 deg. E., NASA lander -1,936 m Launched: May 5, 2018 Landed: Nov. 26, 2018 Mars 3 Elysium Planitia Soviet lander and rover 4.502 deg. N., 135.623 deg. E., Contact lost after successful landing -2,613 m Launched: May 28, 1971 Last contact: Dec. 2, 1971 Curiosity Terra Sirenium NASA rover 45.044 deg. S., 202.019 deg. E., +1,626 m Launched: Nov. 26, 2011 Landed: Aug. 6, 2012 Roved: >22 km Gale Crater 4.5895 deg. S., 137.441 deg. E. Mars Polar Lander -4,501 m NASA lander No contact since entry Mars 2 Launched: Jan. 3, 1999 Soviet lander and rover -8,000 m -6,000 m -4,000 m -2,000 m 0 m +2,000 m +4,000 m +6,000 m +8,000 m Last contact: Dec. 3, 1999 Entered atmosphere too steeply Topography Planum Australe Launched: May 19, 1971 Relative to Martian Datum Near 76.57 deg. S., 165.2 deg. E., Crashed: Nov. 27, 1971 +3,000 m Helios Chaos Near 45 deg. S., 58 deg. E., -5,000 m 1 deg. of latitude on Mars = 59.3 km 1,000 m = 3,280.84 ft.

EMILY LAKDAWALLA/PLANETARY SOCIETY

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE Mars Landers, Past and Future Predecessor Probes Set Stage for Perseverance ➊ ➋ ➌ ➍ ➎ ➏ o far, the U.S. has been the only country to successfully and Europe to once again explore the planet most like Earth land and operate spacecraft on Mars, dispatching in the Solar System. Mars is half the size of Earth but has Seight rovers and landers to the red planet since the about the same amount of surface area as its dry land mass. 1976 Viking missions. The U.S. also has had one landing fail- The Planetary Society, a Pasadena, California-based ure. The European Space Agency attempted two landings space exploration advocacy organization, compiled this on Mars, both unsuccessful. Russia sent three landers to map of Mars landing sites and likely crash sites. It is the PHOTO CREDITS: (1-3) NASA, (4) NASA/JPL-CALTECH/UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, (5) NASA/JPL-CALTECH/MSSS, (6) NASA/JPL-CALTECH Mars in the early 1970s, one of which touched down suc- first compilation to include landing-site elevation data. The cessfully but then ceased communications. base topographical images were assembled from data col- ➊ The Utopia Plantia landing site imaged by Viking 2. Here is a look at missions that have landed and attempted to lected by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter instrument on ➋ The Mars Pathfinder’s Sojourner rover using its Alpha Proton X-ray Spectrometer on a rock named “Moe.” land on Mars, as well as upcoming projects by the U.S., China the now-defunct Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft.

—Irene Klotz, Cape Canaveral ➌ Spirit, one of two Mars Exploration Rovers, landed on the floor of Gusev Crater. ➍ The Phoenix lander explored subsurface ice at Mars’ northern polar region. ➎ The Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover snapped a selfie from its Gale Crater landing site. Successes, Failures and Future ➏ The InSight lander used its Instrument Context Camera to image drifting clouds at sunset. Viking 2 Phoenix NASA lander NASA lander Viking 1 Launched: Sept. 9, 1975 Launched: Aug. 4, 2007 NASA lander Landed: Sept. 3, 1976 Landed: May 25, 2008 Launched: Aug. 20, 1975 Landed: July 20, 1976 Last contact: April 11, 1980 Vastitas Borealis Last contact: Nov. 13, 1982 Utopia Planitia 68.2188 deg. N., 234.2508 deg. E., Chryse Planitia 47.643 deg. N., 134.288 deg. E., -4,495 m -4,130 m 22.269 deg. N., 312.048 deg. E., -3,637 m Perseverance Tianwen-1 NASA rover Chinese rover Rosalind Franklin & Kazachok Launch: expected July 30, 2020 Launch: expected July 2020 ESA rover & Russian lander Landing: expected Feb. 18, 2021 Landing: expected early 2021 Launch: expected Aug.-Oct. 2022 Jezero Crater Site 1: Chryse Planitia Landing: expected April or July 2023 18.4386 deg. N., 77.5031 deg. E., 20-30 deg. N., 310-330 deg. E., Oxia Planum -2,640 m Site 2: Elysium Planitia Near 18.14 deg. N., 335.7 deg. E., 19-30 deg. N., 90-134 deg. E., -3,000 m Beagle 2 Spirit or within Isidis Planitia ESA lander 4-20 deg. N., 80-98 deg. E. Pathfinder No contact since separation NASA rover June 10, 2003 & Sojourner Launched: June 2, 2003 Launched: NASA lander and rover Landed: Jan. 3, 2004 Last contact: Dec. 25, 2003 Launched: Dec. 4, 1996 Roved: 7.73 km Isidis Planitia Landed: July 4, 1997 Last contact: March 22, 2010 11.5288 deg. N., 90.4314 deg. E., Last contact: Sept. 27, 1997 Gusev Crater -3,725 m Ares Vallis 14.5692 deg. S., 19.33 deg. N., 175.4729 deg. E., InSight 326.47 deg. E., -1,936 m NASA lander -3,681 m Launched: May 5, 2018 Landed: Nov. 26, 2018 Mars 3 Opportunity Elysium Planitia Soviet lander and rover NASA rover 4.502 deg. N., 135.623 deg. E., Contact lost after successful landing Launched: July 8, 2003 -2,613 m Launched: May 28, 1971 Landed: Jan. 24, 2004 Last contact: Dec. 2, 1971 Roved: 45.16km Curiosity Terra Sirenium Last contact: June 10, 2018 NASA rover 45.044 deg. S., 202.019 deg. E., +1,626 m Meridiani Planum Launched: Nov. 26, 2011 Landed: Aug. 6, 2012 1.9462 deg. S., 354.4734 deg. E., Roved: >22 km -1,387 m Gale Crater 4.5895 deg. S., 137.441 deg. E. Mars Polar Lander -4,501 m NASA lander Mars 6 Schiaparelli No contact since entry Soviet lander ESA lander Mars 2 Launched: Jan. 3, 1999 Contact lost upon landing Contact lost during descent -8,000 m -6,000 m -4,000 m -2,000 m 0 m +2,000 m +4,000 m +6,000 m +8,000 m Soviet lander and rover Last contact: Dec. 3, 1999 Launched: Aug. 5, 1973 Launched: March 14, 2016 Entered atmosphere too steeply Topography Planum Australe Last contact: March 12, 1974 Crashed: Oct. 19, 2016 Launched: May 19, 1971 Relative to Martian Datum Near 76.57 deg. S., 165.2 deg. E., Margaritifer Sirius Meridiani Planum Crashed: Nov. 27, 1971 +3,000 m Near 24 deg. S., 340.5 deg. E., 2.0524 deg. S., 353.7924 deg. E., Helios Chaos Near 45 deg. S., 58 deg. E., -5,000 m 1 deg. of latitude on Mars = 59.3 km 1,000 m = 3,280.84 ft. -500 m -1,444 m

EMILY LAKDAWALLA/PLANETARY SOCIETY

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 67 SPACE

The UAE and China Head to Mars cated by workplace shutdowns and travel restrictions stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. EUROPE’S EXOMARS WILL NOT FLY UNTIL 2022 > Perseverance’s ride aboard a United > CHINA TO MAKE SECOND ATTEMPT TO REACH MARS Launch Alliance Atlas V also has faced a trio of delays due to ground process- Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral ing issues, postponing liftoff from July 17 to no earlier than July 30. ASA’s Mars 2020 Persever- The spacecraft is scheduled to launch If the rover cannot be launched by ance mission, slated to launch aboard a Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ mid-August, delaying the flight until Nby mid-August, will not be the H-IIA rocket from Japan’s Tanegashi- the next Mars launch opportunity in only spacecraft on the interplanetary ma Space Center and arrive at Mars in August-October 2022 will cost NASA highway to Mars this summer. February 2021, coinciding with the 50th about $500,000, says Administrator In its deep space debut, the United anniversary of the UAE’s formation. Jim Bridenstine. Arab Emirates (UAE) hopes its Mars Also heading to the launchpad is an Originally, the 2020 armada was to Hope orbiter will begin the seven- ambitious mission by China to explore include the joint European-Russian month journey to Mars on July 14— the red planet with an orbiter, land- Mars Express (ExoMars) rover, but the beginning of a three-week launch er and rover. Tianwen-1 is slated to efforts to resolve parachute prob - MOHAMMED BIN RASHID SPACE CENTER

The UAE’s Mars Hope mission has been prepared to launch on a Japanese HII-A rocket.

window that opens every 26 months launch aboard a Long March 5 rocket lems were stymied due to pandemic when Earth and Mars are favorably from Wenchang, China, on July 23. shutdowns, and the mission was de- aligned for interplanetary flight. The mission will be China’s second layed to 2022. Hope is outfitted with three sci- attempt to reach Mars. It partnered ExoMars will be the first mission to ence instruments for detailed studies with Russia on the 2011 Phobos-Grunt search for signs of present-day life on of the Martian atmosphere, but the mission, which included an attached Mars, drilling up to 6.5 ft. below the mission’s primary goal is to spur de- secondary spacecraft, Yinghuo-1, surface, where biological signatures of velopment of the UAE’s science and which was to become China’s first life may be uniquely well preserved. technology sector, particularly among Mars orbiter. Japan and India also plan to launch Emirati youth. Yinghuo-1, along with the rest of missions to Mars in 2022. The mission was developed by the the payload, failed to leave Earth orbit The current Mars fleet includes Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Center due to a spacecraft main propulsion NASA’s Curiosity rover, InSight in Dubai, in partnership with the Lab- engine problem. The stack reentered lander and Mars Odyssey, Mars Re- oratory for Atmospheric and Space the atmosphere in January 2012. connaissance and Maven orbiters; Physics at the University of Colorado Efforts to get all three countries’ Europe’s Mars Express and ExoMars Boulder, Arizona State University and Mars probes ready for the 2020 Trace Gas Orbiter; and India’s Mars the University of California, Berkeley. launch window have been compli- Orbiter Mission. c

68 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

The UAE and China Head to Mars cated by workplace shutdowns and First All-Chinese Mars ing the mission.” The rover’s mass will travel restrictions stemming from the be 240 kg (530 lb.), says the Guangming COVID-19 pandemic. Daily newspaper. EUROPE’S EXOMARS WILL NOT FLY UNTIL 2022 Mission To Deploy Rover > Perseverance’s ride aboard a United While conducting its own observa- > CHINA TO MAKE SECOND ATTEMPT TO REACH MARS Launch Alliance Atlas V also has faced > IT HAS A FOUR-PHASE ENTRY, DESCENT AND LANDING PROCESS tions, the orbiter will act as a commu- a trio of delays due to ground process- nications relay for the rover, Bao says. GROUND-PENETRATING RADAR TO OBSERVE SUBSURFACE Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral ing issues, postponing liftoff from July > He emphasizes the challenge in achiev- 17 to no earlier than July 30. ing telemetry over the great distance Bradley Perrett Beijing ASA’s Mars 2020 Persever- The spacecraft is scheduled to launch If the rover cannot be launched by of the flight to Mars. ance mission, slated to launch aboard a Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ mid-August, delaying the flight until escribing their upcoming mis- locations with hollows or large rocks, Tianwen 1 needs the launch capa- Nby mid-August, will not be the H-IIA rocket from Japan’s Tanegashi- the next Mars launch opportunity in sion to Mars, Chinese space then landing. bility of China’s most powerful rocket only spacecraft on the interplanetary ma Space Center and arrive at Mars in August-October 2022 will cost NASA Dprogram managers stress two “This Mars exploration mission is type, the Long March 5 series, and highway to Mars this summer. February 2021, coinciding with the 50th about $500,000, says Administrator points: China will be the first country not a simple repeat of what other coun- specifically its initial version, simply In its deep space debut, the United anniversary of the UAE’s formation. Jim Bridenstine. to try orbiting, landing and roving on tries have done,” says Zhao Xiaojin, sec- called the Long March 5. That version Arab Emirates (UAE) hopes its Mars Also heading to the launchpad is an Originally, the 2020 armada was to its first flight to the planet; and landing retary of the party committee of Cast, failed on its second flight, in 2017, and Hope orbiter will begin the seven- ambitious mission by China to explore include the joint European-Russian on it is difficult. which is China’s main spacecraft-maker returned to service in December 2019. month journey to Mars on July 14— the red planet with an orbiter, land- Mars Express (ExoMars) rover, but The mission is Tianwen 1, one of and has built the Tianwen 1 probe. In The flop led to a reshuffling of mis- the beginning of a three-week launch er and rover. Tianwen-1 is slated to efforts to resolve parachute prob - three international projects being exploring Mars, “our starting point is sions, with Tianwen 1 moving higher in

MOHAMMED BIN RASHID SPACE CENTER sent to Mars in the launch window of high because of the level of our astro- the sequence to ensure it could depart July and August this year. Objectives nautical technology and the confidence during the 2020 Mars-launch window. include surveying the topography and of our astronautical engineers,” he told The following Long March 5 mission geology of Mars as well as its physical Science and Technology Daily in May. will hurl the Chang’e 5 sample-return fields, atmosphere, ionosphere, climate The orbiter will have seven payloads, probe to the Moon this year. and the space environment. reportedly: a radar, medium-resolu- A mission to bring a sample back

Following flyby missions in the CHINESE GOVERNMENT 1960s, the U.S. put a probe in Martian orbit in 1971, and the Soviet Union made a landing 18 days later. A U.S. rover followed in 1997. Now the first entirely Chinese shot at Mars aims at all three achievements. Probably to prepare the public for the possibility of failure, the Chinese are using the description of a landing on Mars that NASA popularized before its Curiosity mission of 2012: “7 min. of terror.” That is to say, something could easily go wrong. The spacecraft may depart on July 23 or 24, says an industry source. It is due to arrive at Mars in February. The UAE’s Mars Hope mission The assembly will separate into an has been prepared to launch on a orbiter and rover-carrying lander, the The Tianwen 1 rover, as depicted around the time of project launch in 2016. Japanese HII-A rocket. latter entering the thin atmosphere at 4,800 m/sec. (16,000 ft./sec.). Aero- tion camera, high-resolution camera, from Mars and another mission to dynamic braking for 290 sec. will re- mineral spectrometer, magnetometer, the Jupiter system will be conducted window that opens every 26 months launch aboard a Long March 5 rocket lems were stymied due to pandemic duce this by more than 90%, to 460 m/ ions and neutral-particle analyzer and around 2030, Bao says. Work on crit- when Earth and Mars are favorably from Wenchang, China, on July 23. shutdowns, and the mission was de- sec., Bao Weimin, the director of the an energetic-particle analyzer. There ical technology for these is underway. aligned for interplanetary flight. The mission will be China’s second layed to 2022. science committee of Casc, the main will be six payloads on the rover: a A bigger launcher will presumably be Hope is outfitted with three sci- attempt to reach Mars. It partnered ExoMars will be the first mission to contractor for Chinese space programs, topography camera, navigation cam- required, since bringing back a sample ence instruments for detailed studies with Russia on the 2011 Phobos-Grunt search for signs of present-day life on tells the People’s Daily newspaper. era, ground-penetrating radar, multi- requires sending more mass to a target of the Martian atmosphere, but the mission, which included an attached Mars, drilling up to 6.5 ft. below the For a second phase, the lander will spectral camera for observing surface celestial body than is needed for send- mission’s primary goal is to spur de- secondary spacecraft, Yinghuo-1, surface, where biological signatures of deploy a parachute, which in 90 sec. composition, climate detector and ing a one-way probe to it. velopment of the UAE’s science and which was to become China’s first life may be uniquely well preserved. will pull the speed down to 95 m/sec. magnetic field detector. To deal with China attempted to send an orbital technology sector, particularly among Mars orbiter. Japan and India also plan to launch Then comes 80 sec. of propulsive the extreme Martian weather, the rov- probe to Mars in 2011 as a piggyback Emirati youth. Yinghuo-1, along with the rest of missions to Mars in 2022. braking, at the end of which the lander will autonomously sleep and wake. load on the Russian Fobos-Grunt mis- The mission was developed by the the payload, failed to leave Earth orbit The current Mars fleet includes er should be at an altitude of 100 m Its design life is 90 Martian days—or sion to the Martian moon Phobos. The Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Center due to a spacecraft main propulsion NASA’s Curiosity rover, InSight (330 ft.) and descending at 3.6 m/sec. 92 terrestrial days. Fobos-Grunt spacecraft did not leave in Dubai, in partnership with the Lab- engine problem. The stack reentered lander and Mars Odyssey, Mars Re- (The total so far is 7.7 min.) The resid- “High autonomy is needed because Earth orbit, however. oratory for Atmospheric and Space the atmosphere in January 2012. connaissance and Maven orbiters; ual velocity can be dealt with during of the communications delays,” says The name “Tianwen” is unusually Physics at the University of Colorado Efforts to get all three countries’ Europe’s Mars Express and ExoMars the hovering phase, in which the probe Bao. “Illumination is weak—and it is apt for a Chinese effort at space explo- Boulder, Arizona State University and Mars probes ready for the 2020 Trace Gas Orbiter; and India’s Mars will spend 100 sec. surveying the ter- diminished by the atmosphere—so ration. It is the name of an ancient poem the University of California, Berkeley. launch window have been compli- Orbiter Mission. c rain, autonomously moving away from providing power is harder, complicat- and means “questions to heaven.” c

68 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 69 SPACE

OneWeb Buy Could Pave clocks could be developed for fitment on smaller satellites. Adding more capabilities to the satellites would see Way to UK Sovereign GNSS the UK likely lean on its own satellite manufacturing and engineering expertise, says UK Business Secretary Alok > UK GOVERNMENT AND BHARTI GLOBAL WILL EACH Sharma. But the UK is unlikely to call for manufacturing HOLD 45% OF ONEWEB of the satellites—currently done by the OneWeb Satellites joint venture of OneWeb and Airbus in Florida—to move, > ONEWEB ENTERED CHAPTER 11 IN MARCH as transferring such a specialist capability would come with additional unnecessary costs, industry officials tell Aviation Tony Osborne London Week. In May, OneWeb submitted proposals to increase the number of satellites in its constellation to 48,000, to meet he British government’s decision to invest in OneWeb expected connectivity demands. Whether the size of the looks set to put it in direct competition with Elon constellation will ever meet this figure is unclear, but it TMusk’s Starlink constellation, but London is eyeing would require additional manufacturing capability. other opportunities for the satellite system. The purchase also allows the British government to po- The UK along with India’s Bharti Global cellular commu- tentially achieve another policy objective: the ability to beam nications company made a successful joint $1 billion bid for broadband-speed internet into UK homes without the addi- the failed communications provider, giving UK taxpayers tional cost of ground infrastructure. a 45% stake in the company. Bharti will also take a 45% Sharma says the deal would allow the UK to “further de- share, while OneWeb’s creditors will hold the remainder. The velop our strong advanced manufacturing base.” It was a London-based satellite operator says the deal will give it a message echoed by Richard Franklin, managing director “robust foundation” to complete the launch of its planned of Airbus Defense and Space UK, who says the company 648-strong constellation. Just 74 of its satellites had been looks forward to supporting the next phases of the project launched when the company entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy and growing the UK’s contribution to the system. protection in March, following Japanese investor Softbank’s “The UK Government’s vision in backing this project will withdrawal over coronavirus pandemic concerns. drive innovation and new ways of thinking about how space The bid must be ap - can contribute even more proved by a U.S. bank- to the UK economy and ruptcy court on July 10, the country’s defense but the green light by requirements, as well as judges would give the playing a part in deliver- UK a global reach as it ONEWEB SATELLITES ing broadband internet to strengthens its space communities across the ambitions. The acquisi- country,” says Franklin. tion could be a relatively OneWeb CEO Adrian low-cost steppingstone Steckel says the combi- to the creation of a sov- nation of Bharti Global ereign global navigation and the British govern- satellite system (GNSS), ment would “bring im- filling a void left open by mediate value,” and “un- the loss of access to the derscored confidence” European Union’s Galil- in the business and the eo Public Regulated Ser- A OneWeb takeover by the British government and Bharti puts the company’s technology. vice following the coun- future of the company’s megaconstellation back in play. Sunil Bharti Mittal, try’s Brexit decision. chairman of Bharti En- Ministers had balked at the £5 billion-plus ($6.3 billion) terprises, says the deal could pave the way for deepened price tag of a proposed independent system. The OneWeb cooperation between the UK and India and suggested the purchase could, through upgrades and new payloads, “pro- Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) could play a vide a highly accurate timing service,” the UK’s Satellite role in the OneWeb constellation. Catapult business incubator suggested in late June. OneWeb Bharti was one of the initial investors in OneWeb and, could augment and supplement positioning services provid- clearly unperturbed by the bankruptcy, will provide the ed by the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS). Oneweb’s company with commercial and operational leadership, Ku-band signals are more powerful than the L-band signals the UK government says. But it is unclear how this will emitted by the GPS, making them more resilient to jamming evolve if more capabilities such as PNT are added to the and interference. wider constellation. Questions posed to the Department of “OneWeb will offer something new into the Position Nav- Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy about the next igation and Timing (PNT) arena, and not simply another steps have received no reply. Among the conditions set by alternative system,” Catapult suggested. London, however, is that the British government will have Officials have dismissed suggestions that the government a final say over any future sale of the company and over had invested in the wrong type of satellite, with critics de- future access to OneWeb technology by other countries, scribing the purchase as “nonsensical” and claiming the on national security grounds. Regulatory approvals and satellites are too small and too close to the Earth for the closing conditions are expected to be concluded by the PNT task. Industry officials point out that highly accurate end of the year. c

70 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST BOEING SPACE ASK THE OneWeb Buy Could Pave clocks could be developed for fitment on smaller satellites. Adding more capabilities to the satellites would see EDITORS Can Boeing Overcome 737 Way to UK Sovereign GNSS the UK likely lean on its own satellite manufacturing and engineering expertise, says UK Business Secretary Alok MAX Issues and A320neo > UK GOVERNMENT AND BHARTI GLOBAL WILL EACH Sharma. But the UK is unlikely to call for manufacturing Growth To Regain Its Lead? HOLD 45% OF ONEWEB of the satellites—currently done by the OneWeb Satellites joint venture of OneWeb and Airbus in Florida—to move, > ONEWEB ENTERED CHAPTER 11 IN MARCH as transferring such a specialist capability would come with Aviation Week’s Executive Editor, and A321XLR). Conversely, Boeing additional unnecessary costs, industry officials tell Aviation Commercial, Jens Flottau responds: hopes that as a result of the corona- Tony Osborne London Week. In May, OneWeb submitted proposals to increase the Boeing’s market share in terms of virus pandemic, airlines will focus in number of satellites in its constellation to 48,000, to meet deliveries is currently zero because the near term on smaller narrowbod- he British government’s decision to invest in OneWeb expected connectivity demands. Whether the size of the of the 737 MAX grounding. That will ies, where the 737-8 has fared well looks set to put it in direct competition with Elon constellation will ever meet this figure is unclear, but it increase once the aircraft has been against the A320neo. TMusk’s Starlink constellation, but London is eyeing would require additional manufacturing capability. recertified and deliveries resume. Some analysts have contended other opportunities for the satellite system. The purchase also allows the British government to po- Nevertheless, Airbus appears to have that Boeing needs to launch a new The UK along with India’s Bharti Global cellular commu- tentially achieve another policy objective: the ability to beam a long-term market share advan- narrowbody sooner rather than later nications company made a successful joint $1 billion bid for broadband-speed internet into UK homes without the addi- tage—as the A320neo order backlog — yet they also agree that the com- the failed communications provider, giving UK taxpayers tional cost of ground infrastructure. stands at 7,445 compared with just pany cannot really afford to do so in a 45% stake in the company. Bharti will also take a 45% Sharma says the deal would allow the UK to “further de- 4,610 for the MAX. the middle of the COVID-19 down - share, while OneWeb’s creditors will hold the remainder. The velop our strong advanced manufacturing base.” It was a But even when the MAX returns turn. There are also questions about London-based satellite operator says the deal will give it a message echoed by Richard Franklin, managing director to service, Airbus’ advantage could how quickly advanced technologies, “robust foundation” to complete the launch of its planned of Airbus Defense and Space UK, who says the company continue to increase, given that de - particularly engines, that Boeing 648-strong constellation. Just 74 of its satellites had been looks forward to supporting the next phases of the project mand has been shifting to the larger would need to move the needle will for short- and medium-haul routes in launched when the company entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy and growing the UK’s contribution to the system. variants of the narrowbody families, be ready. And now Boeing has to take the early to mid-2030s, which may protection in March, following Japanese investor Softbank’s “The UK Government’s vision in backing this project will where Airbus has enjoyed strong into account new European plans to change the competitive landscape withdrawal over coronavirus pandemic concerns. drive innovation and new ways of thinking about how space market success (A321neo, A321LR develop a hydrogen-powered aircraft yet again. c The bid must be ap - can contribute even more proved by a U.S. bank- to the UK economy and ruptcy court on July 10, the country’s defense but the green light by requirements, as well as U.S. The A220 could also be stretched further to enter the judges would give the playing a part in deliver- Will the Airbus A220 and market space covered by the Boeing 737-7 and -8. UK a global reach as it ONEWEB SATELLITES ing broadband internet to It is true that some airlines are operating the A220 strengthens its space communities across the Embraer E2 Continue To even though they do not need its range. In some cases, ambitions. The acquisi- country,” says Franklin. Compete Post-Pandemic? Airbus bundles A220s with sales of other models such as tion could be a relatively OneWeb CEO Adrian the A320neo. That is why Embraer had hoped its recently low-cost steppingstone Steckel says the combi- scuttled tie-up with Boeing would have allowed the E2 to to the creation of a sov- nation of Bharti Global Jens Flottau answers: Competition between the A220 be offered as part of a broader portfolio. ereign global navigation and the British govern- and E2 is limited. In terms of size, the -100 version of the A key element in future competition will be Embraer’s satellite system (GNSS), ment would “bring im- A220 sits somewhere between the 190-E2 and the 195-E2, approach to pricing. The company so far has stuck with filling a void left open by mediate value,” and “un- depending on the cabin layout. With a maximum takeoff premium pricing compared with the E1 family, but that the loss of access to the derscored confidence” weight of 63 tons, however, the A220-100 is heavier than approach has not worked well in winning orders. Another European Union’s Galil- in the business and the eo Public Regulated Ser- A OneWeb takeover by the British government and Bharti puts the company’s technology. vice following the coun- future of the company’s megaconstellation back in play. Sunil Bharti Mittal, try’s Brexit decision. chairman of Bharti En- Ministers had balked at the £5 billion-plus ($6.3 billion) terprises, says the deal could pave the way for deepened price tag of a proposed independent system. The OneWeb cooperation between the UK and India and suggested the purchase could, through upgrades and new payloads, “pro- Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) could play a vide a highly accurate timing service,” the UK’s Satellite role in the OneWeb constellation. Catapult business incubator suggested in late June. OneWeb Bharti was one of the initial investors in OneWeb and, could augment and supplement positioning services provid- clearly unperturbed by the bankruptcy, will provide the ed by the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS). Oneweb’s company with commercial and operational leadership, RAPHAEL JOLICOEUR/AIRBUS EMBRAER Ku-band signals are more powerful than the L-band signals the UK government says. But it is unclear how this will emitted by the GPS, making them more resilient to jamming evolve if more capabilities such as PNT are added to the the 190-E2 (56.4 tons) and 195-E2 (61 tons) and offers a lot challenge is bringing down supplier costs so that the E2 and interference. wider constellation. Questions posed to the Department of more range: 3,400 nm vs. 2,800 nm for the 190-E2, and can still make decent profit margins despite lower volumes. “OneWeb will offer something new into the Position Nav- Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy about the next 2,600 nm for the 195-E2. So the A220 and E2 really address The A220 has the same challenge but holds one key advan- igation and Timing (PNT) arena, and not simply another steps have received no reply. Among the conditions set by different market segments. tage: It is backed by a huge owner that has more leverage alternative system,” Catapult suggested. London, however, is that the British government will have Most of the A220 orders are for the larger -300 ver - to make the program profitable. c Officials have dismissed suggestions that the government a final say over any future sale of the company and over sion, which addresses long, thin routes. Airlines pay a had invested in the wrong type of satellite, with critics de- future access to OneWeb technology by other countries, cost penalty when they use it on shorter routes. Airbus is The Aviation Week Network invites readers to submit scribing the purchase as “nonsensical” and claiming the on national security grounds. Regulatory approvals and working on versions of the aircraft that would extend its questions to our editors. Answers are published online at satellites are too small and too close to the Earth for the closing conditions are expected to be concluded by the range to around 4,000 nm, allowing airlines to fly it across AviationWeek.com. To access our answer archive or post PNT task. Industry officials point out that highly accurate end of the year. c the Atlantic Ocean or deep into Latin America from the a new question, go to: AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors

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A Wake-Up Call on GPS By Daniel S. Goldin

or the past nine months, I have worked with world- ■ There are now 24 M-Code-capable satellites on orbit class experts to study a longstanding request from but no compatible receivers. Further, eight of 24 M-Code FLigado Networks to create a ground-based 5G satellites have been in orbit for 11-15 years, well beyond network using L-band spectrum. We found that L-band their 7.5-year design life. Some will fail or be retired be- paired with C-band will accelerate the deployment of U.S. fore they are ever used for military operations. 5G and help counter China’s 5G ambitions without causing Meanwhile, China started deployment of BeiDou-3 sat- harmful interference to GPS. The testing record ellites in 2015 and has launched 30 satellites in proves it and is further corroborated by the fi ve years, enabling worldwide operations in recent release of internal statements from June. GPS embarked on its phase 3 pro- Pentagon spectrum experts. gram in 1997, launched three GPS III On April 20, the U.S. FCC an- satellites and hopes to complete the nounced approval of Ligado’s appli- program by 2034. cation to use the L-band spectrum A 40-year span from problem between 1 and 2 GHz for a terres- identifi cation to problem solution trial 5G network providing cellular is unacceptable and requires an and internet-of-things data services. examination of the legacy power But Pentagon GPS advocates have structures behind such mismanage- enlisted the help of the Senate and ment. The PNT Advisory Board is House Armed Services committees to composed of seasoned members of the include amendments to the fi scal 2021 de- GPS community serving before and after fense authorization bills that would empower the senior U.S. leaders they advise come and the Defense Department to undermine the FCC’s go. What is the purpose of an advisory board with unanimous, bipartisan decision on Ligado. If the respec- such continuity if not to help decision-makers avoid the tive Commerce committees do not assert jurisdiction negligence described above? over the FCC and blunt these amendments, this overt Decision-makers deserve complete information. The power move by the Pentagon could be complete. Pentagon’s top leaders put the country fi rst without regard While military bureaucracy claims it is committed to for bureaucratic agendas. However, their advisors on PNT/ protecting GPS, it has neglected serious risks for decades. GPS have provided them with incomplete information, Excessive cost, timeline overruns and claiming Ligado is a problem and GPS improperly fi ltered GPS receivers are is not, when the opposite is true. In my tolerated, while the Pentagon maligns 58 years working on science, technol- Ligado’s harmless 9.8-watt signal (a I HAVE NEVER SEEN ogy and U.S. national security, I have power level set by the FAA with a never seen an issue of such impor- huge 23 MHz guard band) as a grave AN ISSUE OF SUCH tance so beset by misinformation as risk. Ironically, the Pentagon’s pre- the Ligado case—nor have I seen such occupation with Ligado may be what IMPORTANCE SO BESET complacency in a program as vitally fi nally brings proper attention to GPS important as GPS. mismanagement. The truth is the sys- Such challenges will defi ne how we tem has been vulnerable for a long BY MISINFORMATION as a nation respond to the increasingly time, endangering the troops who de- common technology and national se- pend upon it. Congress has attempted AS THE LIGADO CASE. curity decisions ahead. Either we will to hold the Defense Department and grind to a near-halt debating facts to the Position, Navigation, and Timing advance internal agendas, or we will (PNT) community accountable, but GPS stakeholders have make evidence-based policy decisions to counter formida- resisted. How bad is it? Consider: ble threats to our national security and economy. I have con- ■ In 1996, then-Vice President Al Gore announced a plan fi dence that the leaders of the Defense Department and our to modernize GPS. In 1997, the Defense Department be- Armed Services committees—when presented with whole gan developing a jam-resistant military satellite signal information on critical issues like Ligado, 5G and GPS— called M-Code, with the support of Congress and the will discern the best way forward to protect our nation. c president. After 23 years, the program is still 15 years from completion. Daniel S. Goldin is an engineer who served as NASA adminis- ■ President Donald Trump’s fi scal 2020 budget directs trator under three U.S. presidents from 1992 to 2001. He has no the Pentagon to transition approximately one million mili- fi nancial a liation with Ligado Networks. tary GPS receivers to M-Code military receivers, but this will not occur until 2035 at the earliest—the one million iital Etra For more detail, read Goldin’s in-depth analysis

US GOERNMEN M-Code chips necessary have not been made yet. at: AviationWeek.comi

74 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST VIEWPOINT

A Wake-Up Call on GPS By Daniel S. Goldin or the past nine months, I have worked with world- ■ There are now 24 M-Code-capable satellites on orbit 第⼗三届 class experts to study a longstanding request from but no compatible receivers. Further, eight of 24 M-Code FLigado Networks to create a ground-based 5G satellites have been in orbit for 11-15 years, well beyond network using L-band spectrum. We found that L-band their 7.5-year design life. Some will fail or be retired be- paired with C-band will accelerate the deployment of U.S. fore they are ever used for military operations. 5G and help counter China’s 5G ambitions without causing Meanwhile, China started deployment of BeiDou-3 sat- harmful interference to GPS. The testing record ellites in 2015 and has launched 30 satellites in The 13th China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition proves it and is further corroborated by the fi ve years, enabling worldwide operations in recent release of internal statements from June. GPS embarked on its phase 3 pro- Pentagon spectrum experts. gram in 1997, launched three GPS III On April 20, the U.S. FCC an- satellites and hopes to complete the nounced approval of Ligado’s appli- program by 2034. cation to use the L-band spectrum A 40-year span from problem between 1 and 2 GHz for a terres- identifi cation to problem solution trial 5G network providing cellular is unacceptable and requires an and internet-of-things data services. examination of the legacy power But Pentagon GPS advocates have structures behind such mismanage- enlisted the help of the Senate and ment. The PNT Advisory Board is House Armed Services committees to composed of seasoned members of the include amendments to the fi scal 2021 de- GPS community serving before and after fense authorization bills that would empower the senior U.S. leaders they advise come and the Defense Department to undermine the FCC’s go. What is the purpose of an advisory board with unanimous, bipartisan decision on Ligado. If the respec- such continuity if not to help decision-makers avoid the tive Commerce committees do not assert jurisdiction negligence described above? over the FCC and blunt these amendments, this overt Decision-makers deserve complete information. The power move by the Pentagon could be complete. Pentagon’s top leaders put the country fi rst without regard While military bureaucracy claims it is committed to for bureaucratic agendas. However, their advisors on PNT/ protecting GPS, it has neglected serious risks for decades. GPS have provided them with incomplete information, Excessive cost, timeline overruns and claiming Ligado is a problem and GPS improperly fi ltered GPS receivers are is not, when the opposite is true. In my tolerated, while the Pentagon maligns 58 years working on science, technol- Ligado’s harmless 9.8-watt signal (a I HAVE NEVER SEEN ogy and U.S. national security, I have power level set by the FAA with a never seen an issue of such impor- huge 23 MHz guard band) as a grave AN ISSUE OF SUCH tance so beset by misinformation as risk. Ironically, the Pentagon’s pre- the Ligado case—nor have I seen such occupation with Ligado may be what IMPORTANCE SO BESET complacency in a program as vitally fi nally brings proper attention to GPS important as GPS. mismanagement. The truth is the sys- Such challenges will defi ne how we tem has been vulnerable for a long BY MISINFORMATION as a nation respond to the increasingly time, endangering the troops who de- common technology and national se- pend upon it. Congress has attempted AS THE LIGADO CASE. curity decisions ahead. Either we will to hold the Defense Department and grind to a near-halt debating facts to the Position, Navigation, and Timing advance internal agendas, or we will (PNT) community accountable, but GPS stakeholders have make evidence-based policy decisions to counter formida- resisted. How bad is it? Consider: ble threats to our national security and economy. I have con- ■ In 1996, then-Vice President Al Gore announced a plan fi dence that the leaders of the Defense Department and our to modernize GPS. In 1997, the Defense Department be- Armed Services committees—when presented with whole gan developing a jam-resistant military satellite signal information on critical issues like Ligado, 5G and GPS— called M-Code, with the support of Congress and the will discern the best way forward to protect our nation. c president. After 23 years, the program is still 15 years from completion. Daniel S. Goldin is an engineer who served as NASA adminis- ■ President Donald Trump’s fi scal 2020 budget directs trator under three U.S. presidents from 1992 to 2001. He has no the Pentagon to transition approximately one million mili- fi nancial a liation with Ligado Networks. tary GPS receivers to M-Code military receivers, but this EXHIBITION TRADE VISITOR & AIRCRAFT EXHIBITION will not occur until 2035 at the earliest—the one million iital Etra For more detail, read Goldin’s in-depth analysis Mr. Jimmy Sum Mr. Aaron Huang Tel:+86-756-337-6304 Tel:+86-756-337-6111 US GOERNMEN M-Code chips necessary have not been made yet. at: AviationWeek.comi WWW.AIRSHOW.COM.CN Email:[email protected] Email: [email protected]

74 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 13-26, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST The choice between solving today’s problems or solving them for decades to come.

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