FAB Morning News Summary

FAB morning news summary

Global News

• US producer prices fall for first time in nearly 1½ years; jobless claims up for fourth straight week: US producer prices fell for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years in December amid declining costs for services, which could temper expectations that inflation will accelerate in 2018. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand slipped 0.1% last month. That was the first drop in the PPI since August 2016 and followed two straight monthly increases of 0.4%. In the 12 months through December, the PPI rose 2.6% after accelerating 3.1% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 0.2% last month and increasing 3.0% from a year ago. A key gauge of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services edged up 0.1% last month. The so-called core PPI increased 0.4% in November. It rose 2.3% in the 12 months through December after increasing 2.4% in November. Weak wholesale prices could stoke fears that the causes of weak inflation will become more persistent and prompt the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about raising interest rates this year. The PPI data came on the heels of a report on Wednesday showing a sharp moderation in import prices in December. In a second report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 261,000 for the week ended Jan. 6, the highest level since late September. Economists had forecast claims falling to 245,000 in the latest week. The labor market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at a 17-year low of 4.1%. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 35,000 to 1.87 million in the week ended Dec. 30, the lowest level since December 1973. Source: Reuters

• Fed's Dudley worries tax cuts risk overheating US economy; says it adds up to strong case for additional rate hikes: The risk of an overheating US economy in the next few years, partly fueled by tax cuts, reinforces the case for continued gradual interest-rate increases, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said. "While the fact that inflation is below the FOMC’s 2% objective argues for patience, I think that is more than offset by an outlook of above-trend growth, driven by accommodative monetary policy and financial conditions as well as an increasingly expansionary fiscal policy," Dudley said Thursday in remarks prepared for a speech in New York. "Moreover, if the labor market were to tighten much further, there would be a greater risk that inflation could rise 12 January 2018 substantially above our objective," which in turn could force the Fed to raise rates faster and potentially trigger a recession by doing so, he added. Chavan Bhogaita Dudley plans to retire this year when the New York Fed finds a replacement, Head of Market Insights & Strategy following a decade running the bank. Fed officials expect tax cuts signed into law by President Donald Trump last month to boost economic growth Rakesh Sahu this year without putting upward pressure on prices, according to Analyst projections they published after their Dec. 12-13 meeting. Dudley told the

audience during a question and answer session that three moves this year Please click here to view our recent “doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable sort of starting point,” though the publications on MENA and Global Markets ultimate pace of policy tightening will depend on how the economy evolves. “If the economy is stronger than we think, if inflation rises more quickly, then I can certainly imagine that we’d do more than we said. If the economy is weaker than we think, or inflation stays stubbornly low, we could do somewhat less than we think,” he said. “So, I think it really depends on how all of these things sort of evolve. But clearly the financial conditions piece

“If the economy is stronger than we think, if inflation rises more quickly, then I can certainly imagine that we’d do more than we said. If the economy is weaker than we think, or inflation stays stubbornly low, we could do somewhat less than we think,” he said. “So, I think it really depends on how all of these things sort of evolve. But clearly the financial conditions piece pushes on the side of going faster.” Dudley also said that the tax cuts and recent strengthening of economic momentum prompted him to raise his forecast for US economic growth in 2018 "by about half a percentage point to three quarters of a percentage point to a 2.5% to 2.75% range." The tax legislation accounts for about two-thirds of the upgrade, he said. Faster economic growth from the tax cuts at a time when the labor market is already tight and financial conditions are already easy "suggests that the Fed may have to press harder on the brakes at some point over the next few years," Dudley said. "If the labor market tightens much further, it will be harder to slow the economy to a sustainable pace, avoiding overheating and an eventual economic downturn." Source: Bloomberg

• ECB joins central bank chorus hinting at faster tightening: The European Central Bank has indicated it is preparing to cut its crisis-era stimulus programme faster than anticipated, joining monetary policymakers in most developed economies in expressing increased confidence in the global economic recovery. The signal, contained in minutes of the ECB’s December rate-setting meeting published on Thursday, came just days after the Bank of Japan sent a similar message by disclosing it had purchased fewer bonds than investors had expected as part of its quantitative easing efforts. The ECB’s language was characteristically subtle, a Financial Times reported saying, instead of discussing the eurozone’s continued “recovery”, it referred to the bloc’s “expansion”. But the change of wording was enough to send the euro rallying nearly 1% against the dollar and German bond yields rose to near two-year highs. Mario Draghi, the ECB chief, set the bank’s current slow path of tapering its stimulus programme in October, when he announced he would cut bond buying in half to €30bn each month until September. Draghi also vowed to hold borrowing costs at their current record lows until well after the ECB ends its bond buying. The bank has bought a total of €2.3tn of bonds since starting QE in early 2015. But the minutes of the December 14 meeting showed Draghi’s governing council was already reconsidering how the eurozone’s “continued robust and increasingly self-sustaining economic expansion” should weigh on its decision- making, saying the ECB should better communicate its confidence in the region’s growth. “Looking ahead, the view was widely shared among members that the governing council’s communication would need to evolve gradually,” the account said. “The language pertaining to various dimensions of the monetary policy stance and forward guidance could be revisited early in the coming year.” At the December meeting, the ECB’s staff upgraded its forecasts for growth to 2.4% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018 – the most significant in the history of the bank’s quarterly projections. Households and businesses in the region are expected to keep spending, which investment activity is also forecast to pick up. Most ECB watchers still think QE will continue until September, but expectations of purchases continuing beyond that are diminishing. Like the ECB, the Bank of England and the US Fed have said they expect to tighten their ultra-loose money policies in 2018 in the face of strengthening economic indicators Source: Bloomberg

• China’s December exports bests expectations, driving up trade surplus: China’s exports rose more than expected in December, capping a year of stronger trade growth buoyed by a robust global economy. Import growth however slowed dramatically, helping to drive up the country’s trade surplus. The dollar value of outbound shipments from China climbed 10.9% year on year in December, slowing from November’s rate of 12.3% but comfortably besting a median forecast of 9.1% growth from economists surveyed by Reuters. Imports meanwhile grew far less than anticipated, with a year-on-year rise of just 4.5% undershooting expectations of a 13% climb and down substantially from the prior month’s pace of 17.7%. The divergent trends in trade flows boosted China’s trade surplus by about $14bn from the previous month to $54.7bn at the end of 2017, well above a median forecast of $37bn. Full year data for 2017 show exports rose 10.8% in yuan terms while imports surged 18.7%. The 2017 trade surplus stood at 2.87 trillion yuan ($442.3bn). China’s trade surplus with the US rose 13% in 2017. Demand for Chinese products is holding up as growth in major trade partners remains intact, and a feared trade war between China and the U.S. has yet to materialise. An imports boom is being driven by the economy’s unexpectedly robust expansion in 2017, with the nation’s gross domestic product expanding by about 6.9% last year, the official Xinhua News Agency cited Premier Li Keqiang as saying this week. Source: Financial Times; Bloomberg 2

• S&P cuts Brazil debt rating to BB- as pension reform doubts grow: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut Brazil’s credit rating further below investment grade on Thursday as doubts grew about a presidential election in October and a push to trim its costly pension system, seen as vital to closing a huge fiscal deficit. S&P lowered its long-term rating for Brazil sovereign debt to BB- from BB previously, with a stable outlook, citing less timely and effective policymaking. S&P also cited a risk of greater policy uncertainty after this year’s elections. The decision underscored concerns that a business-friendly reform agenda proposed by the unpopular President Michel Temer may stall this year as a looming presidential race shortens the legislative calendar. The Finance Ministry said in a statement that it would continue to push for an overhaul of Brazil’s social security and tax policies, adding that S&P’s decision underscored the urgency of those fiscal reforms. Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles had met with ratings agencies to try and stave off a downgrade after the government delayed until February a vote on pension reform that had been expected last year. “I think it’s a warning of the economic and social consequences of not approving pension reform,” said Wellington Moreira Franco, secretary-general for President Michel Temer. The move by S&P brings its long-term sovereign rating for Brazil three notches below investment grade. Brazil is rated Ba2 by Moody’s Investors Service and BB by Fitch Ratings, both two notches into “junk” territory. Brazil lost its investment grade rating in 2015 as the country headed into its deepest recession in decades and the government of then-President Dilma Rousseff failed to tame a budget deficit that exploded when a commodities boom faded. Source: Reuters

• Dollar set for fifth weekly loss on moderate PPI and hawkish ECB, while treasuries steadied after some sell-off; Asia energy stocks gain as Brent hovers near $70: The dollar extended losses to head for its fifth weekly decline after an index of US producer prices unexpectedly contracted and the euro rose on speculation that policy tightening could come sooner than expected. Volatility in the Treasuries market subsided as yields slipped Thursday but held near highs after the European Central Bank said it may adjust its guidance to investors given the strength in the European economy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell two basis points to finish at 2.538% in New York and was trading around 2.543% in Asia on Friday. It touched 2.595% on Wednesday, its highest level since March, after news broke out that China may reconsider its purchasing of US debt, which was later denied by officials. The 2-year yield is now at 1.985%, its highest level since Sep. 2008. The 30-year yield is now at 2.871%, after hitting a high of 2.945% this week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to its lowest level in more than three months after the 10-year yield declined on the PPI data. The euro was up 0.1% to $1.2048 after climbing 0.7% Thursday. The pound added 0.1% to $1.3550. Against the yen, the dollar slipped to a six-week low of 111.05 on Thursday and last stood at 111.20 yen. The Korean won climbed 0.8% on Friday to 1,063.94 per dollar. Brent oil briefly crossed the $70/barrel mark on Thursday, its highest level since November 2014, before closing at $69.26 a barrel with a modest gain of 6 US cents. It was trading unchanged on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $63.80 a barrel on Thursday, up 23 cents, the highest since December 2014. It was trading around $63.63/barrel on Friday. Oil has continued to rally this year after posting a second annual advance as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies curb supply to drain a worldwide glut. Asian stocks resumed their ascent on Friday, supported by US earnings optimism and a rise in oil prices. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%, following two straight sessions of decline. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index rose 0.4% as higher oil prices overnight pushed the energy sub sector up 1.7%. Gauges in India, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan also climbed, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 0.2%, while the Topix index fell 0.6%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed after the underlying gauge rose 0.7% Thursday. The MSCI All-Country World Index added 0.4%Thursday, closing at an all-time high. It’s up 3.3% this year after a 22% surge in 2017. Source: Bloomberg; Reuters; FT

Middle East & Africa News

• Report says Abu Dhabi government is weighing dollar bond sale in first quarter: A Bloomberg News article reported on Thursday that Abu Dhabi government is talking to banks for a potential dollar bond sale. The government could sell the debt as soon as the first quarter, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. The emirate may raise

between $5bn and $10bn depending on demand, one of the people said. A final decision hasn’t been made and the talks may not result in a sale, the people said. No official comments available from the government on the media speculation. Abu Dhabi is rated Aa2 by Moody’s and AA by S&P and Fitch. All three rating agencies have stable outlook on the ratings. Last month Bloomberg also reported that Abu Dhabi government is planning to start selling treasury bills for the first time in 2018. The UAE is also working on a federal debt law to allow the nation to sell local-currency debt. Abu Dhabi raised $10bn from a bond sale in October and sold $5bn of bonds in April 2016, its first sale in seven years. Source: Bloomberg

• Qatar is said to target first quarter for $9bn bond sale: Qatar is planning to tap the debt market in the first quarter for about $9bn to finance its budget deficit, a Bloomberg News article reported Thursday citing people familiar with the matter. Government officials are in talks with a number of international banks about the sale, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The bond is likely to be in line with or more than Qatar’s last issuance of $9bn in 2016, some of the people said. A final decision hasn’t been made and the talks may not result in a sale, the people told Bloomberg News. According to Bloomberg News, a spokesman for Qatar National Bank said it “is expected to be part of any sovereign deal.” There were no official comments from the government though. Abu Dhabi is rated Aa3 by Moody’s and AA- by S&P and Fitch. All three rating agencies have negative outlook on the ratings. Source: Bloomberg

• Qatar National Bank sells $720m Formosa bond; bank is also in talks to $3bn loan: Qatar National Bank (QNB) issued a $720m, 30-year Formosa bond earlier this week, Reuters reported Thursday citing sources. Formosa bonds are sold in Taiwan by foreign issuers and are denominated in currencies other than the Taiwanese dollar. The fundraising is the latest indication of Qatari banks’ efforts to diversify their funding resources amid an ongoing regional diplomatic rift that started over six months ago. Standard Chartered was the sole manager of the issue of the bond which is callable every five years. QNB has tapped the Formosa bond market regularly over the past few years. It issued a $630m Formosa bond last year, and a $1.1bn Formosa bond in 2016. Other banks in the region have sold debt in the same market, which is considered attractive from an issuer perspective because the cost of issuance for five-year maturities is lower than for a vanilla bond. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank recently raised $540m through a Formosa bond, Reuters reported this week saying other Gulf banks are also discussing potential debt sales. QNB is also raising a $3bn loan to refinance an existing debt facility due in March, Reuters reported. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, MUFG, SMBC, Mizuho Bank, United Overseas Bank, Banca Intesa Sanpaolo and Standard Chartered are leading the facility, sources told Reuters in December. The deal is now being syndicated to a larger group of banks, banking sources said. Source: Reuters

• Saudi Arabia is said to weigh eurobond sale during first quarter: According to a Bloomberg News article, Saudi Arabia is talking to banks with a view to sell dollar-denominated bonds in international capital markets as early as the first quarter. The government has approached international and local lenders to gauge potential pricing of the debt, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News asking not to be identified because the information is private. No formal request for proposals to arrange the sale has been sent to banks, they said. Saudi Arabia plans to borrow about $31bn this year to bridge a budget deficit forecast to reach $52bn. It is also seeking to fund a program to reduce its dependence on the commodity and reignite economic growth. Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report last week that they expect Saudi to issue $20bn of international bonds this year. There were no comments from Ministry of Finance, according to Bloomberg News. Saudi Arabia raised about $36bn in 2017, including $14bn of domestic bonds and $21.5bn of foreign debt. The country is said to be considering increasing the size of a $10bn loan after banks on the 2016 deal offered to extend the size of the facility. Fahad Al-Saif, head of the debt management office at the Ministry of Finance, said in October that the kingdom was studying when to return to international markets in 2018, with a sale in the first quarter possible. Source: Bloomberg

• Saudi social security program pumps $560m into citizens’ accounts: The Saudi Citizens Account social security program, which is designed to assist low- and middle-income families, on Wednesday

deposited an instalment of SAR 2.1bn ($560m) into beneficiaries’ accounts. The average payment stood at SAR 935 ($249) for each family in the second payment round in the Citizens Account program, Asharq Al-Awsat reported. Ali Rajhi, general manager of the program, said 800,000 families have received support exceeding SAR 900 ($240). Half of independent families and individuals received the full payment, while 26% of beneficiaries received partial support. Beneficiaries included around 3 million independent families and individuals and 7.9 million heads of households, making a total of around 11 million. Rajhi noted that the total payments to beneficiaries in the Citizens Account program, in its first and second rounds, reached SAR 4bn. The third payment will be deposited on Feb. 10 for those who completed their applications by Jan. 10. The Citizens Account program aims to protect Saudi households from the direct and indirect impacts of economic reforms, compensating for an increase in prices as subsidies on electricity and petrol are cut, and value-added tax (VAT) is applied to goods. Cash is deposited in beneficiaries’ accounts on the 10th of each month, except on weekends. If the 10th falls on a Friday, the cash is deposited on the Thursday; if it falls on Saturday, the cash is deposited on the Sunday. Source: Zawya

• Saudi central bank lifts loan-to-value rate for first time buyer mortgages: Saudi Arabia’s central bank lifted the maximum loan-to-value rate on Thursday for mortgages for first-time homebuyers to 90% from 85% in an effort to stimulate mortgage lending. “Raising the maximum limit of the percentage of financing of the value of the first house for citizens will contribute to supporting the growth of the real estate financing sector,” the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) said in a statement on its website. It said the decision also aims to help the kingdom achieve its national housing strategy, part of wider economic reform plans, but added that the move must not affect the stability of the financial sector. SAMA raised the loan- to-value rate for first-time buyers to 85% from 70% a year ago. Source: Reuters

• Saudi state said to take control of Binladin construction giant: Saudi Arabia is taking managerial control of Saudi Binladin Group and discussing a possible transfer of some of the giant construction group’s assets to the state while its chairman and other family members are in detention, Reuters reported Thursday citing sources. Binladin, which had over 100,000 employees at its height, is the biggest builder in the country and important to Riyadh’s plans for large real estate, industrial and tourism projects to help diversify the economy beyond oil. However, the group has been hurt financially in the past couple of years by a slump in the construction industry and a temporary exclusion from new state contracts after a crane accident killed 107 people at Mecca’s Grand Mosque in 2015. It was forced to lay off thousands of employees. Riyadh’s move to take control appears aimed at ensuring the group can continue to serve Saudi Arabia’s development plans, banking and industry sources said, according to Reuters. The government detained scores of senior officials and businessmen in October as part of a sweeping crackdown on corruption. The Binladin group’s chairman Bakr Bin Laden and several family members have been held, the sources said. Saudi officials are trying to negotiate settlements with detainees, saying they aim to claw back some $100bn of funds that rightfully belong to the state. The talks on Binladin’s future are part of this effort, the sources said. Since the detention of Bin Laden family members, the finance ministry has formed a five-member committee, including three government representatives, to oversee the group’s business and handle relations with suppliers and contractors, the sources said. Although ownership of Binladin currently remains with the family, the group is in negotiations with the government about the potential transfer of some assets to the state, or possibly reducing or eliminating the government’s outstanding debts to Binladin, the sources said. According to Reuters, one banking source with detailed knowledge of the group said the debt might total around $30bn. Source: Reuters

• Merger of Saudi banks Alawwal and SABB to go ahead despite delays: The proposed merger of Saudi British Bank (SABB) and Alawwal Bank has been delayed but not derailed, financial sector sources said, according to Reuters. SABB, 40% owned by HSBC Holdings, and Alawwal, 40% owned by Royal Bank of Scotland, announced in April that they had agreed to start talks. But progress has since faltered because of the complexity of the deal and for shareholder assessment of any potential impact from the kingdom’s anti-corruption drive, the sources said. The banks have not announced a timetable, but Saudi Arabian central bank governor Ahmed al-Kholifey told Al Arabiya television in October that the outlook for the

merger would become clear by the end of 2017. Consolidation in the sector across the Gulf region has increased in the past two years as profit margins have become squeezed by lower government and consumer spending in the face of weak oil prices. However, progress on the SABB-Alawwal merger has taken longer than expected because the regulatory environment for bank acquisitions in Saudi Arabia is relatively untested, said two of the sources. The last major tie-up was nearly 20 years ago. Meanwhile, dozens of princes, high officials and senior businessmen were detained in November in a corruption crackdown that has boosted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s power. Among those was SABB vice chairman Khalid Bin Abdullah al-Mulhem, one of the executives on the bank’s merger committee, the sources said. Two sources said Mulhem’s detention had not affected the merger talks. In a roundtable discussion with securities analysts, RBS said it was trying to understand whether the events in Saudi Arabia had implications for the merger. Almost all banks in Saudi Arabia were affected by the crackdown when authorities ordered the freezing of more than 2,000 accounts across the sector, though industry sources say the number of frozen accounts has since dropped considerably. A merged Alawwal and SABB would rank as the third-largest bank in Saudi Arabia with assets of $77.6bn, behind National Commercial Bank and Al Rajhi Bank, the Reuters article reported. Source: Reuters

• Hong Kong, London, New York said to be shortlisted for Aramco IPO: Saudi Arabia has shortlisted New York, London and Hong Kong – singly or in a combination of two or even all three - for the international portion of the listing of national oil company Aramco, Reuters reported Thursday citing sources with knowledge of the discussions. The initial public offering (IPO) will also include the Saudi stock exchange, Tadawul, and is still set for late 2018, the sources said. The shortlist means Tokyo, Singapore and Toronto are no longer in the running for what is likely to be the world’s biggest IPO, the Reuters article reported. Riyadh could raise as much as $100bn in the sale of up to 5% of Aramco if it achieves a projected $2tn valuation. A final decision has yet to be made by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who oversees the kingdom’s economic and oil policies, the sources said. One of the sources told Reuters that a phased listing was being considered, with the local listing occurring first, followed by an international listing or listings at a later stage. The second source said it was possible that Aramco would be listed on all three international exchanges, as well as the Saudi bourse, but cautioned that no decision had been taken. The first source said discussions involved listing on at least two of the three venues. “As far as Aramco goes, late 2018 remains the objective and the plan and everything is moving to deliver that,” the first source said. Saudi Aramco said in response to a Reuters request for comment: “A range of listing options continue to be held under active review. However, no decision has been taken.” The Aramco listing is a centrepiece of Vision 2030, an ambitious reform plan championed by Prince Mohammad to reduce the dependence of the Saudi economy on oil. Saudi officials have left the door open to other options for the Aramco IPO, including listing exclusively on Tadawul and a domestic listing coupled with a private placement to a strategic investor as a precursor to an international IPO. Source: Reuters

• Gulf stocks firm on oil, Qatar gains for sixth straight day: Most major Gulf stock markets rose on Thursday after oil prices hit new 2-1/2 year highs, with Qatar’s bourse gaining for a sixth straight day as investors positioned themselves for annual dividends. The Qatari index fell early on but closed 1.0% higher in active trade. Foreign investors turned net sellers for the first time in several days, exchange data showed. Doha Bank surged 3.7% in its heaviest trade since the end of November while Qatar National Bank rose 1.5%. Medicare Group added 6.9% in its highest volume since last March. The Saudi stock index rose 0.5% with 11 of 14 petrochemical shares gaining in response to the oil price. PetroRabigh, which has also been boosted by news of production starting at its Phase II complex, added a further 4.8%. It has jumped 19.5% this year. Saudi British Bank surged 3.2% and Alawwal Bank rose 1.9% after financial sector sources told Reuters that their proposed merger, which is under discussion, had been delayed but not derailed. Dubai’s index edged down 0.1% as the most heavily traded stock, amusement park operator DXB Entertainments, pulled back 1.6% after surging 13% this year. Abu Dhabi index rose 0.3%, Kuwait index added 0.5%, Bahrain index edged down 0.1% and Oman index fell 0.2%. Egypt’s index rose 0.3% as real estate developer Emaar Misr gained 2.9% to 3.85 Egyptian pounds after EFG Hermes resumed coverage of the stock with a “buy” rating and a target of 5.20 pounds. Source: Reuters

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