I.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ rW rlj ~'~Aitr.A *1 I / . f- ' r.7! v ,% ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~............ ,_... ..wL. z......... Public Disclosure Authorized `44 Public Disclosure Authorized ,~~~~~~~~~~ ;; ,4 . : . ...... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~¾. Public Disclosure Authorized t- ~... : ~.. ... .: .. ir I 2D~~~ ' ,' Public Disclosure Authorized JOINT UNDPIWORLDBANK ENERGYSECrOR ASSESSWENTPROGRAM REPORTS ALREADY ISSUED Country- Date Number Indonesia Novenber 1981 3543-INO Mauritius December 1981 3310-1AS Kenya May 1982 3800-KE Sri Lanka May 1982 3792-CE Zimbabwe June 1982 3765-ZIM Haiti June 1982 3672-HA Papua New Guinea June 1982 3882-PNG Burundi June 1982 3778-BU Rwanda June 1982 3779-RW Malawi August 1982 3903-tAL Bangladesh October 1982 3873-BD Zambia January 19.83 4110-ZA Turkey March 1983 3877-TTJ Bolivia April 1983 4213-3O Fi ji June 1983 4462-FIJ bolomon Islands June 1983 &404-SOL Senegal July 1983 4112-SE Sudan JuLv 1983 4511-SIU Uganda Julv 1983 S453-hiG N-igeria August i983 444'--UN I Nepal August 1983 47I-4NEP Gambia November 19S3 473-GM4 ?eru January 1984 4677-PE Costa Rica Janua rv 19-34 4655-CR Lesotho Januarv 1984 4676-LSo Seychelles January 1984 4693-SEY _,-orocco 'larch 1984 4157-!iOR Portugal April 1984 4'824-PO Niger Mav 1984 42 &2-N I R Ethiopia July 1984 4S7' 1-ET Cape Verde August 1984 5073-CV Guinea Bissau August 1984 5083-GU3 Botswana Sentenher 1:84 4998-BT St. Vincent and the Grenadines Se'tenber 198'- 9103-sT St. Lucia September 19S4 5111-SLU Paraguav October 19894 5145-PA Tanzania November 1984 4969-TA Ye-aen Arab Republic Dece:mber 1984 4892-YAR Liberia December 1984 5279-LBR Isla-mic Republic of Mauiritania -pril 1985 522 4 - U Jamaica April 1985 5466- IN! I-vorv Coast April 1985 9290-PJC Benin June 1985 5221--BEN Togo June 1985 5221-TO Vanuatu Jtune 1985 5577-VA Tonga itJne 1985 S499-T,ON Western Samoa June 1985 5497--WS, Bur-na June 1985 5416-BIA Thailand Septenber i985 5793-TTH Sao Ton e & Princine October 19S5 5903-ST? Ecuador Decemiber 1985 5q65-EC Sonalia Dece'.her 1985 5796-Sn Burk;ina January 1986 573r) _r Zaire Mav 1986 5837-ZR Syria 'lav 1986 59422-SYR Giiana Novenber 1986 6234-Gfl Guinea Novermber 1986 6137-GI;1 M4adagascar Januarv 1987 570O-*TAG FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPORT NO. 5700-NAG MADAGASCAR ISSUES AND OPTIONS IN THE ENERGYSECTOR JANUARY1987 This is one of a series of reports of the Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Assessment Program. Finance for the work has been provided, in part, by the UNDP Energy Account, as well as by the Commission of the European Co-uunities, and the work has been carried out by the World Bank. The report has a restricted distribution. Its contents may not be disclosed without authorization from the government, the UNDP or the World Bank. ABSTRACT Madagascar's main energy problems are a growing fuelwood crisis resulting from overutilization of the forest resources which provide 80Z of its final energy consumption, mainly for cocking, and the country's total dependence on high-cost petroleum imports. In addition, there is a lack of coordination of overall energy operations and policies. The most pressing issues are related to more efficient exploi- tation and utilization of existing woody biomass and hydropower resour- ces, and improvement of the existing energy infrastructure in the form of power plant, transmission and distribution facilities and the Toamasina petroleum refinery. The most attractive option for increasing woodfuel supply in the next five years or so is to upgrade traditional charcoaling efficiency and utilize forest residues and non-commercial grade timber such as Haut Mangoro pine smallwood, sawmill wastes and logging resi- dues. Demand-side options include commercial trials of improved wood- and charcoal-burning metal stoves, as well as more efficient kerosene stoves and electric rice cookers. With reinforced and expanded power distribution, the rice cookers would utilize part of the large surplus hydroelectric capacity. Rehabilitation of the petroleum refinery will improve middle distillate yields, thus reducing the need for correspond- ing imports. With respect to energy pricing, electricity rates and tariffs in particular need to be rationalized to ensure consistency with economic costs and the financial needs of Madagascar's power utility. There is an urgent need to establish and develop a single effective national energy planning agency while strengthening management and investment programming at the subsector level. ARBReoVIATONS AND ACRONYMS adb air dried basis BEICIP Bureau d'Etudes Industrielles et de Cooperation de l'Institut Francais du Petrole BP British Petroleum bpd barrels per day CCCE Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (of France) c.i.f. cost, insurance and freight CIHA Cimenterie de Amboanio cm centimeter CSP Conseil Superior du Plan CSR Conseil Supreme de la Revolution DEF Fishery and Forestry Department DGP Directorate General of the Plan EAR Estimated Additional Resources EDF Electricite de France EIB European Investment Bank ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Fi French Francs RdG Malagasy Franc f.o.b. free on board GDP Gross Domestic Product gms grams TARA International Atomic Energy Agency ICS Interconnected System IDA International Development Association IMI Malagasy Institute for Innovation JIRAMA Malagasy ELectricity and Water Corporation kgoe kilograms of oil equivalent LRMC Long Run Marginal Cost Mai mean annual increment mcwb moisture content wet basis MES Ministry of Higher Education MIEM Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mines MPAEF Ministry of Animal Production, Fisheries and Forests MRSTD Ministry of Scientific Research and Technology for Development MPARA Ministry of Agricultural Production and Agrarian Reform od oven dry basis OMmIS National Military Office for Strategic Industries RAR Reasonably Assured Resources SOMAGI Societe Malgache de Gestion Informatique SOLIMA Malagasy Petroleum Refinery Company SOMLAC Malagasy Agricultural Association SR Speculation Resources SRMC Short Run Marginal Cost toe tonnes of oil equivalent tpy tonnes per year twe tonnes of wood equivalent Um United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme cURENCY EQUrVALENTS Currency Unit = Malagasy Franc (FMG) US$l = FNG625 a/ - US$1 = French Francs 9 a/ Bbl Barrel of oil = 0.15899 cubic meter; 42 US gallons; 35 imperial gallons BTU British Thermal Unit = 0.252 kilocalories CF cubic feet = 0.02832 cubic meter Gal gallon = 3.7853 liter CWh gigawatt-hour = 1,000,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) K(k) kilo = 1,000 grams Km kilometer = 0.62 mile = 1,000 meters kV kilovolt = 1,000 volts kWh kilowatt hour = 1,000 watt hours MVA megavolt ampere = 1,000 kilovolt amperes Kw megawatt = 1,000 kilowatt (kW) MWh megawatt hour = 1,000 kilowatt hours toe tonne of oil equivalent = 39.68 million BTU twe tonne of wood equivalent b/ = 0.32 toe a/ Exchange rates as of October, 1984. These are the rates used in the report unless stated otherwise. The Madagascar fiscal year runs from January 1 to December 31. b/ At 25Z moisture content wet basis (mcwb) per unit weight. ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS Million kcal TOE per Fuels per unit physical unit Liquid fuels (tonne) Crude oil 10.00 1.00 LPG 11.00 1.10 Avgas 10.50 1.05 Gasoline 10.50 1.05 Kerosene 10.30 1.03 Jet fuel 10.30 1.03 Gas oil 10.20 1.02 Fuel oil 9.70 0.97 Electricity at end use (MWh) 0.86 0.086 Coal (tonne) 6.40 0.64 Fuelvood (tonne at 25% mcwb) 3.20 0.32 Charcoal (tonne at 10% mcwb) 6.90 0.69 1 kcal = 3.968 BTU 1 kcal = 4.19 kilojoules 1 toe = 10.0 million kcal - 39.68 million BTU = 41.9 million kilojoules = 3.1 twe I toe = 3,922 kWh on thermal replacement basis tonne (t) = metric ton = 1,000 kilogram (kg) = 2,204.6 pound (lb) This report is based on the findings of an energy assessment mission that visited Madagascar in October/November, 1984, and a mission in June 1985, that discussed a draft of the main findings and recomnendations reached. The assessment mission comprised Jochen Schmedtje (mission Leader), Paul Dyson (Solid Fossil Fuels), Kenneth Newcombe (Cellulosic Fuels) and the following consultants: Claude Gerard (Petroleum Refining), Jean-Roger Mercier (Renewable Energies), Bernard Russell (Energy Institutions) and Katrina Sharkey (Researcher). Drawing on pertinent IDA project experience Vukota Mastilovic and Kathleen Stephenson contributed material on the power subsector and petroleum exploration, respectively. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PREFACE............................. .......... MAIN FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........... vii I. ENERGY IN THE ECONOMY ..... 1 The Economy ..... 1 Energy in the Economy.. 2 Fuelwood Crisis .. .3 3......... Import Dependence... 3 Energy Consumption Trends... 4 Overview.... 4 Energy Consumption and GDP . .5 Energy Resources... 6 Overview... 6 Solid Fossil Fuels ...... 6 Petroleum... 6 Uranium... 7 Hydropower... 7 Fewod.... 8 Biomass Other Than Wood. 8 Solarand Wind E n ..........e r g ....................y 8 Geothermal Energy... 9 Energy Policy... 9 Future Energy Demand . .......................... 10 II. RENEWABLE ENERGY SO U R C ES................................. 11 Fuelwood . 11 Fuelwood Supply .. 11 Fuelvood Consumption .. 11 Deforestation .. 13 Subsector Strategyr.................................... 14 Increasing Supply .. 15 Short-term Supply Options . .15 Long-term Supply Options . .18 Demand Management .. 20 Increasing Cooking Efficiency . 22 Interfuel Substitution .. 22 Antananarivo Household Cooking Fuels: Supply and Demand . .24 Recommendations .. 24 Top