D R A F T
Chapter 3: Forecast of Aviation Demand
Prepared for Montrose Regional Airport
May 24, 2016
CH2M HILL 9191 South Jamaica Street Englewood, CO 80112
Contents
Section Page 3 Forecast of Aviation Demand ...... 3-6 Purpose ...... 3-6 Data Sources ...... 3-6 U.S. Aviation Industry – The Only Constant is Change ...... 3-7 Industry Consolidation ...... 3-7 Cost Control and Focus on Profitability ...... 3-7 Aircraft Fleet Changes ...... 3-8 Montrose Regional Airport Service Area ...... 3-8 Demographic and Economic Characteristics ...... 3-9 Montrose Economy: Tourism Driven ...... 3-12 Historical Commercial Air Service at MTJ ...... 3-12 Historical Passenger Demand ...... 3-13 Historical Capacity – Departing Seats ...... 3-14 Historical Airline Load Factors ...... 3-15 Current Commercial Air Service at MTJ ...... 3-16 Current O&D Passenger Geographic Distribution ...... 3-17 Design Aircraft for Planning Purposes ...... 3-18 Current Design Aircraft ...... 3-18 Future Design Aircraft – Commercial ...... 3-19 Forecast Methodology and Approach ...... 3-20 Factors Impacting Passenger Enplanement Forecasts ...... 3-20 Forecast Uncertainties Specific to Montrose Regional Airport ...... 3-21 Determination of Methodology ...... 3-21 Forecast Summary: 2016 – 2035 ...... 3-26 Enplanement Forecast Comparison to 2015 TAF Projections ...... 3-28 Air Carrier Forecast Activity ...... 3-29 Peak Demand – Monthly and Hourly ...... 3-30 Cargo Forecast ...... 3-33 Factors Affecting General Aviation Demand ...... 3-33 General Aviation Trends ...... 3-34 Unmanned Aircraft Systems ...... 3-35 Historical General Aviation Activity ...... 3-35 Previous Forecasts of Aviation Demand ...... 3-36 Future Forecast Scenarios ...... 3-37 Forecast Assumptions ...... 3-37 Forecast Methodologies ...... 3-37 Based Aircraft Forecast ...... 3-38 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix ...... 3-43 General Aviation Operations Forecast ...... 3-43 MTJ Historical Fuel Sales ...... 3-49 Critical Aircraft Determination ...... 3-51 Summary of MTJ Aviation Demand Forecast ...... 3-53
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT iii CONTENTS Tables Table 3-1. Montrose County Employment Categories ...... 3-11 Table 3-2. MTJ Traffic Seasonality Five Year Average: CY 2011 – 2015 ...... 3-12 Table 3-3. MTJ Historical Scheduled Air Service CY 2000 – Current ...... 3-13 Table 3-4. MTJ Top 10 Domestic O&D Markets YE Q3 2015 ...... 3-17 Table 3-5. MTJ Current Aircraft Specifications Fleet Mix at MTJ CY 2016 ...... 3-18 Table 3-6. MTJ Future Aircraft Specifications ...... 3-19 Table 3-7: MTJ % Share of National Domestic Enplanements CY 2006 - 2015 ...... 3-24 Table 3-8. MTJ Enplanements 10 Year CAGR vs. CO Western Slope & NW Mountain Region CY 2006 – 2015 ...... 3-25 Table 3-9. Enplanement and Operational Summary CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-27 Table 3-10. Five Year Enplanement and Operations Comparison vs. TAF CY 2016-2035...... 3-29 Table 3-11. MTJ Peak Month/Day/Hour Passengers and Operations ...... 3-32 Table 3-12. Cargo Freight/Mail Forecast (Lbs.) CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-33 Table 3-13. MTJ Historical Aviation Activity ...... 3-36 Table 3-14. Previous Aviation Demand Forecasts...... 3-37 Table 3-15. Based Aircraft Trend Analysis ...... 3-38 Table 3-16. MTJ Share of Surrounding Airport Based Aircraft ...... 3-39 Table 3-17. MTJ Share of Based Aircraft in the State of Colorado ...... 3-40 Table 3-18. Based Aircraft Forecast Summary ...... 3-42 Table 3-19. Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Forecast ...... 3-43 Table 3-20. Previous Master Plan Forecast ...... 3-43 Table 3-21. MTJ Share of Surrounding Airport Annual Operations ...... 3-45 Table 3-22. MTJ Share of Colorado GA Operations ...... 3-47 Table 3-23. General Aviation Operations Comparison ...... 3-49 Table 3-24. Local/Itinerant Operations Splits ...... 3-51 Table 3-25. General Aviation Design Aircraft ...... 3-52 Table 3-26. Combined Design Aircraft ...... 3-52 Table 3-27. TAF Comparison Table ...... 3-53 Table 3-28. MTJ Aviation Demand Forecast Summary ...... 3-55
iv DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 CONTENTS
Section Page Figures Figure 3-1. Montrose Regional Airport Primary and Secondary Service Areas ...... 3-9 Figure 3-2. Montrose County Population Growth 2005 - 2035 ...... 3-10 Figure 3-3. Montrose County Total Employment Growth 2005 - 2035 ...... 3-11 Figure 3-4. MTJ Five Year Enplanement Trend CY 2011 - 2015 ...... 3-14 Figure 3-5. MTJ Departing Seats Five Year Trend CY 2011 - 2015 ...... 3-14 Figure 3-6. MTJ Load Factor Performance Five Year Trend CY 2011 - 2015 ...... 3-15 Figure 3-7. MTJ Route Map and Current Air Service CY 2016...... 3-16 Figure 3-8. Population Driven Enplanement Forecast CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-22 Figure 3-9. Per Capita Income Driven Enplanement Forecast CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-23 Figure 3-10. FAA Domestic Enplanement Forecast CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-24 Figure 3-11. NW Mountain Region Driven Enplanement Forecast CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-26 Figure 3-12. Enplanement Forecast Comparison CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-26 Figure 3-13. Avg. Daily Departures and Seats per Departure CY 2016-2035 ...... 3-30 Figure 3-14. MJT Peak Passengers by Month – 5 year Average CY 2011-2035 (% of Annual Total) ...... 3-31 Figure 3-15. MTJ Peak Operations by Month – 5 Year Average CY 2011-2035 (% of Annual Total) ...... 3-31 Figure 3-16. Based Aircraft Forecast Comparison ...... 3-42 Figure 3-17. OPBA Forecast Scenarios ...... 3-44 Figure 3-18. General Aviation Operations Comparison ...... 3-48 Figure 3-19. MTJ Historical Jet A Fuel Sales ...... 3-49 Figure 3-20. MTJ Historical AvGas Sales ...... 3-50
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT v
3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND 3 Forecast of Aviation Demand Purpose This chapter provides a 20-year forecast of commercial and general aviation activity at Montrose Regional Airport (MTJ). The forecasts and related data are intended for inclusion in the airport’s master plan that is currently being prepared for the years 2016-2035.
Data Sources In preparing the commercial aviation forecasts contained herein, a number of data sources were consulted. These include, but were not limited to, the following:
• FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF): The FAA issued Terminal Area Forecast Summary for Fiscal Years 2016-2040 was consulted for this forecasting process. Additionally, the APO Terminal Area Forecast Detail Report issued in January 2016 was also utilized for comparative purposes.
• FAA Advisory Circular 150/5070-6B, Airport Master Plans: This document was consulted to ensure that the methodology employed and forecasts produced were in compliance with FAA requirements for development of airport master plans.
• FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal Years 2016-2036: This document was utilized to analyze the Montrose Regional Airport’s percent of enplanements of the national enplanement forecast. This forecasting methodology is referred to as “share analysis.”
• Aviation DataMiner™ Software: This is proprietary software of Boyd Group International that analyzes a range of aviation data, including traffic, capacity, and average fare, reported to the U.S. Department of Transportation by the airline industry on forms DB1B and T-100. The system also forecasts airline fleet changes and additions on an on-going basis.
• Innovata, LLC: Innovata, LLC is the “official” source that IATA requires airlines to report flight schedule data. Data from Innovata, LLC was utilized to review current and historical airline flight schedule data.
• “Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport”: Released by the FAA in July 2001, followed with subsequent updates and revisions, “Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport” provided supplemental guidance to ensure that contained forecasts were prepared in compliance with FAA requirements.
• Woods & Poole Economics: Historical and forecast socioeconomic data for the Montrose Regional Airport service area and the United States was obtained from Woods & Poole Economics of Washington, DC. Use of this data source is recommended by the FAA in the “Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airports.”
• Montrose Regional Airport Statistics: Airport reported statistics such as enplanements and operations were utilized primarily as a means to cross-reference other data sources such as T-100 data.
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Other information was obtained from organizations on the worldwide web for economic data (e.g., Montrose Economic Development Council, the Office of Business and Tourism, etc.) and company websites e.g.., aircraft manufacturers, airlines, etc.) for information specific to operations at the Montrose Regional Airport. Additionally, Boyd Group International utilized its internal library and databases of regional airport markets collected during the course of three decades of completing work on behalf of various airports.
U.S. Aviation Industry – The Only Constant is Change Major changes have occurred over the last several years in the U.S. aviation industry that underscore the fact that this ever-changing environment will impact the future of air service in the U.S. These changes will most certainly affect air service at regional airports such as MTJ. The following themes will be at the forefront of airline decision making processes over the next several years.
Industry Consolidation The following mergers have occurred in the U.S. airline industry, fundamentally changing airline strategies and levels of air service across the nation.
• Delta Air Lines merged with Northwest Airlines
• United Airlines merged with Continental Airlines
• Southwest Airlines merged with AirTran Airways
• American Airlines merged with US Airways
The net result of this industry consolidation has been a decrease in scheduled air service across the nation, often impacting regional airports more drastically than larger hub metropolitan airports. Competition for available resources (aircraft/crew) amongst airports across the nation has increased significantly since the aforementioned mergers were consummated. The airports that offer the greatest return on the airline’s assets will attract new air service. Those airports that cannot offer strong returns to the airlines will likely experience decreased levels of air service over the next five to ten years. 1
Cost Control and Focus on Profitability Cost control has become a major theme among airlines since consolidation. A driving force behind the mergers was the prevailing thought in the industry that there was too much capacity in the U.S. market, and therefore the competition was too great for most of the carriers to successfully and profitably compete on a sustainable basis. Operating an airline is extremely cost intensive –between aircraft, pilots and flight attendants, management personnel, and fuel costs – airlines needed to manage their costs.
1 Numerous airports have experienced decreased air service in the last few years. Some small airports have lost air service altogether due to regionalization of air service into one airport within a region. MTJ has been minimally impacted due to its profitability for airlines and generally isolated geographic location.
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-7 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND One of the easiest ways to control variable operating costs was through less flying and a specific focus on profitable routes.
Gone are the days when airlines battled each other for market share (passenger share). Today’s industry is focused quite simply on one metric – profitability. As previously mentioned, airports that provide airlines with the greatest return on investment for the use of its assets (airplanes/crew) will flourish in the new U.S. aviation industry. Aircraft Fleet Changes During the 1990s and most of the 2000s, the prevalence of the 50-seat regional jet and other small turboprop and jet aircraft were ubiquitous in the U.S. However, as oil prices continued to climb, the aircraft aged and became less and less efficient. Today, every airline that utilized these jets extensively in the past has focused on retiring these aircraft and replacing them with 65+ seat regional jet aircraft and smaller mainline aircraft (100-120 seats). The efficiencies of the newer planes help the airlines control their operational costs, while the additional seat capacity maximizes revenue opportunities.
Airlines operate fewer flights in order to limit costs and allow for maximum profitability potential. The impact on the nation’s airports as a whole is fewer departures and seats, although with the upgauging in aircraft from the 50-seat and smaller aircraft to larger aircraft, seat capacity is showing less of a percentage decline than departures.
Overall, these themes are necessary to understand and comprehend when forecasting enplanements and operations at MTJ over the next twenty years. Fortunately for MTJ, their return on investment to the airlines serving the region is high, and the airport should be relatively isolated from the trends of decreased service at regional airports over the next twenty years
Montrose Regional Airport Service Area The Montrose Regional Airport is a main gateway to the Colorado western slope. The primary and secondary service areas for MTJ was determined by identifying 60 and 90 minute drive times to the airport. The service area encompasses a resident population of approximately 70,000. In addition to agriculture, the region is a major recreational destination. A large resort industry is dependent on Montrose Regional Airport for access to and from the rest of the nation and the globe.
The local population is based along the north/south US 50/550 corridor, bordered by Delta, Colorado in the north, and Ouray/Red Mountain Pass to the south. Because of the rural nature of the region, Montrose Regional Airport draws travelers from a wide primary and secondary service area. The closest competing airports to MTJ include Grand Junction Regional Airport to the north (65 miles), Durango-La Plata County Airport to the south (124 miles), and Gunnison-Crested Butte Regional Airport to the east (65 miles).
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Figure 3-1. Montrose Regional Airport Primary and Secondary Service Areas
Source: Microsoft MapPoint
Demographic and Economic Characteristics Consideration of a community’s demographic and economic characteristics is important to the determination of commercial and general aviation activity. Prior to developing the forecasts in this document, current and projected economic trends and population projections for Montrose County were examined.
Montrose County has experienced gradual population growth at a compounded annual rate of approximately 1.0% between 2005 and 2015. This is slightly higher than the overall U.S. growth rate. Between 2016 and 2035 the population of Montrose County is expecting modest growth at 0.9% average annual growth rate, from approximately 42,000 to 50,000. This, too, is generally in line with the greater U.S. growth rate trend during this time period.
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-9 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Figure 3-2. Montrose County Population Growth 2005 - 2035
Population is forecast to grow at 60 an average annual growth rate of 0.9% between 2016 and 2035 Historical Forecast 50
40
30
20
10 Montrose County Population (000) Population County Montrose 0
Source: Woods & Poole Economics
While demographic and economic trends certainly play a significant role in commercial and general aviation activity within a community, Montrose Regional Airport is somewhat unique in that it is largely a destination airport for inbound travelers. As will be further illuminated upon in later sections, the average true origination of MTJ passengers has been approximately 27% from the local catchment area and 73% from other airports. Said differently, of the annual passengers at MTJ, approximately three quarters are inbound travelers, generally visitors taking advantage of the outdoor activities in the region. One quarter of the passengers originate from the MTJ service area. This would indicate that the passenger traffic at MTJ is more closely tied to the overall U.S. population and economic status than that of its immediate service area. This concept will be explored in depth throughout this document. Because one quarter of all passengers at MTJ originate their trip at Montrose, further examination of economic indicators is appropriate for this analysis. Montrose County total employment is projected to grow at an average of 1.2% between 2016 and 2035, from approximately 22,800 to 29,000 employed.
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Figure 3-3. Montrose County Total Employment Growth 2005 - 2035
Total Employment is forecast to grow 35 at an average annual growth rate of 1.2% between 2016 and 2035 Historical Forecast 30
25
20
15
10
5
Montrose County Employment (000) Employment MontroseCounty 0
Source: Woods & Poole Economics
Retail Trade, State and Local Government, Healthcare, and Construction account for over 40% of the total Montrose County employment as of 2015. The mix of top employment categories during 2015 is not expected to change significantly between 2016 and 2035.
Table 3-1. Montrose County Employment Categories
2015 2015 INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT (000) (000) RETAIL TRADE 2.7 TRANSPORTATION and WAREHOUSING 0.7 STATE and LOCAL GOVERNMENT 2.7 WHOLESALE TRADE 0.5 ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, and HEALTH CARE and SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 2.2 0.4 RECREATION CONSTRUCTION 2.1 FORESTRY, FISHING, RELATED ACTIVITIES 0.3 MANUFACTURING 1.5 FEDERAL CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT 0.3 OTHER SERVICES, EXCEPT PUBLIC 1.5 MINING 0.3 ADMIN REAL ESTATE and RENTAL and LEASE 1.3 UTILITIES 0.2 ACCOMMODATION and FOOD 1.3 INFORMATION 0.2 SERVICES MANAGEMENT of FARM 1.2 0.2 COMPANIES/ENTERPRISES PROFESSIONAL and TECHNICAL 1.0 EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 0.1 SERVICES
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-11 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
ADMINISTRATIVE and WASTE 0.9 FEDERAL MILITARY 0.1 SERVICES FINANCE and INSURANCE 0.9 TOTAL 22.8 Source: Woods & Poole Economics
Montrose Economy: Tourism Driven Montrose County and the Montrose Regional Airport service area are characterized as highly dependent on tourism economy. Air service access that MTJ provides is a critical component to the economic livelihood of the region. World class ski resorts are within close proximity to Montrose, and the scheduled air service seasonality and corresponding passenger traffic seasonality indicates that the winter months (Q1) are the most popular for MTJ.
For example, over the last five years (2011-2015), approximately 47% of all passenger traffic at MTJ occurred in the first quarter of each year. As the table below indicates, Q1 and Q3 are the most popular times for air travel at MTJ, with Q2 and Q4 much less popular.
Table 3-2. MTJ Traffic Seasonality Five Year Average: CY 2011 – 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL
Passenger Traffic Seasonality 46.8% 13.3% 23.6% 16.2% 100.0%
Source: BTS T-100 Data
Winter activities such as skiing, snowmobiling, snowshoeing, and ice climbing draw visitors to the Montrose region, and MTJ is the regional gateway for these travelers who rely on the air service access.
Historical Commercial Air Service at MTJ Over the last 15 years, Montrose Regional Airport has benefitted from several different air carriers providing winter seasonal, summer seasonal, and/or year round nonstop service to numerous connecting hubs throughout the U.S. The primary year round service is provided by United Airlines via its Denver International Airport (DEN) hub, which connects both domestic and international passengers seamlessly and efficiently.
As the following table indicates, the vast majority of nonstop routes other than United’s DEN service have been either winter or summer seasonal service. Due to the seasonal nature of the Montrose market, this is not expected to change materially over the next twenty years.
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Table 3-3. MTJ Historical Scheduled Air Service CY 2000 – Current
Service Period Between MTJ and - Carrier From To Atlanta* Delta Air Lines Jan -07 Current Chicago* American Airlines Dec -01 Mar -11 Chicago* American Airlines Dec -15 Current Chicago* United Airlines Dec -08 Current Chicago** United Airlines Jul -15 Current Dallas -Ft. Worth* American Airlines Dec -00 Current Dallas -Ft. Worth** American Airlines Jun -07 Current Denver United Airlines Jan -00 Current Houston* United/Continental Airlines Jan -00 Current Houston** United/Continental Airlines May -06 Current Las Vegas* Allegiant Air Dec -15 Current Los Angeles* Allegiant Air Jan -14 Current Los Angeles** Allegiant Air Jun -15 Aug -15 Los Angeles* Continental Airlines Dec -04 Mar -06 Los Angeles* United Airlines Jan -07 Current Los Angeles* American Airlines Dec -15 Current Los Angeles** American Airlines Jun -16 Current Newark* United/Continental Airlines Jan -00 Current Oakland* Allegiant Air Dec -12 Mar -13 Phoenix America West Oct -02 Aug -03 US Airways/American Phoenix* Dec-14 Current Airlines Phoenix* Allegiant Air Dec -12 Mar -15 Salt Lake City* Delta Air Lines Jan -07 Mar -10 Salt Lake City** Delta Air Lines May -07 Sep -10 San Francisco* United Airlines Dec -14 Current Source: BTS T-100 Data *Winter Seasonal Service **Summer Seasonal Service
Historical Passenger Demand Passenger demand has increased by approximately 21% between 2011 and 2015, with 2015 culminating in an all-time record for enplanements at MTJ. However, taking a broader view over a longer period of time, between 2001 and 2015, the compounded annual growth rate for enplanements at MTJ is approximately 2.5% (2001 = 70,457; 2015 = 102,637).
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Figure 3-4. MTJ Five Year Enplanement Trend CY 2011 - 2015
MTJ Enplanements increased by approximately 21% between 2011 and 2015, making 2015 a record year at MTJ 120,000 102,637 100,000 86,728 84,701 80,173 80,000 73,320
60,000
40,000 Enplanements 20,000
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: BTS T-100 Data
Historical Capacity – Departing Seats In addition to the enplanement growth over the last five years at MTJ, departing seat capacity has increased during this timeframe. Departing seats increased by approximately 10% between 2011 and 2015. Much like the enplanement growth at MTJ, when analyzing the longer term trend (2001-2015) the departing seats compounded annual growth rate is approximately 3%.
Fig ure 3-5. MTJ Departing Seats Five Year Trend CY 2011 - 2015
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MTJ Seat Capacity has increased at MTJ by 10% between 2011 and 2015 160,000 140,941 140,000 128,640 121,209 120,000 113,976 100,289 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Departing Seats Departing 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: BTS T-100 Data
Historical Airline Load Factors Load factor performance has remained relatively consistent at MTJ over the last five years. Coming off a low of 65.8% in 2011, load factors have averaged approximately 72% between 2012 and 2015.
Figure 3-6. MTJ Load Factor Performance Five Year Trend CY 2011 - 2015
MTJ Load Factor performance illustrates that demand has been keeping pace with the incremental 80.0% capacity growth at MTJ 73.1% 72.8% 71.6% 70.3% 70.0% 65.8%
60.0%
50.0% Load Factor (%) Factor Load
40.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: BTS T-100 Data
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-15 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Current Commercial Air Service at MTJ Currently, Montrose Regional Airport has air service from three legacy network carriers (Delta, United and American) and one travel company, Allegiant Air, who provide low cost, high value travel packages. As of January 2016, MTJ had nonstop service to/from eleven distinct markets: Denver, New York City, Newark, Chicago, Dallas–Ft. Worth, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Houston and San Francisco. United’s Denver nonstops are the only year-round service at MTJ, while the other markets are served on a seasonal basis.
Figure 3-7. MTJ Route Map and Current Air Service CY 2016
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Departures Seats
Carrier Dest 2016 2016 American 417 34,685 DFW 255 23,990 LAX 57 4,194 ORD 34 2,431 PHX 71 4,070 Delta 34 4,948 ATL 32 4,618 LAX 2 330 Allegiant 52 8,424 LAS 26 4,212 LAX 26 4,212 United 1,615 97,600 DEN 1,166 64,600 EWR 20 2,400 IAH 196 12,620 LAX 26 1,820 LGA 13 1,560 ORD 169 12,850 SFO 25 1,750 Total 2,118 145,657 Source: Innovata, LLC
Current O&D Passenger Geographic Distribution As of year-end Q3 2015, the top domestic origin and destination markets at MTJ were Houston, Los Angeles, Newark, Dallas – Ft. Worth, and Chicago. Of the top ten domestic markets, the only market without seasonal nonstop service during this timeframe was Boston. As is indicated by the table below, the top ten markets accounted for approximately 47% of all MTJ passengers as of year-end Q3 2015. Furthermore, only 23% of these passengers originated their trip at MTJ, meaning the vast majority were inbound visitors traveling to the Montrose region primarily for recreational activities.
Table 3-4. MTJ Top 10 Domestic O&D Markets YE Q3 2015
Passengers % Passengers % of Total Rank Market Daily Each Originating In & Out Passengers Way (PDEW) @ MTJ
1 IAH 14,519 19.9 11.7% 7.3% 2 LAX 13,690 18.8 42.5% 6.9% 3 EWR 11,262 15.4 14.5% 5.7% 4 DFW 11,257 15.4 18.2% 5.7% 5 ORD 10,519 14.4 23.4% 5.3% 6 LGA 8,895 12.2 21.6% 4.5% 7 SFO 6,154 8.4 32.4% 3.1% 8 DEN 6,143 8.4 26.3% 3.1% 9 BOS 5,503 7.5 28.7% 2.8% 10 ATL 5,492 7.5 18.0% 2.8% Total 93,434 128.0 23.3% 47.2% Source: BTS DB1B Data
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-17 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND The passenger traffic mix and destination distribution is dependent on the markets that have seasonal nonstop service at MTJ. Since the region is highly geared toward inbound tourism, the traffic mix and markets will depend on whether nonstop service exists. At this time, there is no reason to expect that markets with seasonal nonstop service will change materially in the near future.
Design Aircraft for Planning Purposes As discussed in detail in Chapter 2 – Inventory of Existing Conditions, the FAA uses a coding system, the Airport Reference Code (ARC), to relate airport design criteria to the operational and physical characteristics of aircraft intended to operate at the airport. There are two components to the ARC. The first, depicted by a letter (A, B, C, D & E) relates the aircraft Approach Category (approach speed), and the second component is depicted by a Roman numeral (I, II, III, IV, V & VI) is the aircraft Design Group category (length, wingspan, and tail height).
These categories, when combined, result in the ARC based on a “design” aircraft (or group of aircraft), which is the largest aircraft having (or forecast to have) a minimum of 500 annual operations (or 250 departures) at the airport. In some cases, there may be two design aircraft, one for geometric standards and another for runway strength.
Current Design Aircraft The existing design aircraft for MTJ is a combination of the Boeing 757-200 (C-IV) and Gulfstream IV (D- II), which combines for an ARC of D-IV. The current mix of aircraft in use during the scheduled 2016 operations at MTJ is varied and wide ranging – from 50-seat regional jets to 166-seat MD-80 aircraft. The most commonly used aircraft currently in the 2016 scheduled operations is the 50-seat CRJ-200 regional jet and the 50-seat Embraer E-145. Together, these two aircraft account for approximately 55% of all 2016 operations at MTJ. The next most commonly utilized aircraft in the 2016 schedule is the dual class CRJ-700, with seating capacity between 65-70 seats. The CRJ-700 are scheduled to operate approximately 25% of all 2016 MTJ operations. Combined, the 50-seat and 65-70 seat regional jet category of aircraft are approximately 80% of all scheduled operations at MTJ. The remainders are a mixture of 76-78 seat dual class regional jets, 74-seat turboprop aircraft, and mainline aircraft. The following page identifies all currently scheduled aircraft for 2016 at MTJ.
Table 3-5. MTJ Current Aircraft Specifications Fleet Mix at MTJ CY 2016
Current Current Current Current
Aircraft Model Bombardier CRJ-200 Bombardier CRJ-700 Bombardier CRJ-900 Bombardier Q-400 Length Overall 87 feet 10 inches 106 feet 1 inches 118 feet 11 inches 107 feet 9 inches Wingspan 69 feet 7 inches 76 feet 3 inches 81 feet 7 inches 93 feet 3 inches Height Overall 20 feet 5 inches 24 feet 10 inches 24 feet 7 inches 27 feet 5 inches Maximum Ramp 51,250 lbs 73,000 lbs 80,750 lbs 63,250 lbs Weight Typical Approach 125 knots 125 knots 125 knots 125 knots Speed Approach Speed C C C C Category
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Airplane Design II II III III Group Current Current Current Current
Aircraft Model Embraer E-145 Embraer E-175 Airbus A319 Airbus A320 Length Overall 98 feet 0 inches 103 feet 11 inches 111 feet 0 inches 123 feet 3 inches Wingspan 65 feet 9 inches 94 feet 2 inches 117 feet 5 inches 117 feet 5 inches Height Overall 22 feet 2 inches 31 feet 11 inches 38 feet 7 inches 38 feet 7 inches Maximum Ramp 45,635 lbs 83,026 lbs 167,300 lbs 172,800 lbs Weight Typical Approach 125 knots 125 knots 134 knots 134 knots Speed Approach Speed C C C C Category Airplane Design II III III III Group Current Current Current Current
McDonnell Douglas MD- Boeing 737-700 Boeing 737-800 Boeing 757-200 Aircraft Model 88 Length Overall 110 feet 3 inches 129 feet 5 inches 147 feet 10 inches 155 feet 3 inches Wingspan 117 feet 4 inches 112 feet 6 inches 107 feet 10 inches 124 feet 8 inches Height Overall 41 feet 6 inches 41 feet 4 inches 30 feet 6 inches 45 feet 1 inches Maximum Ramp 153,500 lbs 156,000 lbs 150,500 lbs 221,000 lbs Weight Typical Approach 130 knots 142 knots 144 knots 137 knots Speed Approach Speed C D D C Category Airplane Design III III III IV Group Source: Aircraft Manufacturers
Future Design Aircraft – Commercial A wide variety of commercial aircraft will continue to operating at Montrose Regional Airport in the future as shown in Table 3-6. The most demanding commercial critical design aircraft expected to operate at the airport in the future is the Boeing 757-200 (C-IV).
Table 3-6. MTJ Future Aircraft Specifications
Future Future Future Future
Aircraft Model Embraer E-195 Boeing 737-900ER Boeing 757-200 Airbus A321 Length Overall 126 feet 10 inches 138 feet 2 inches 155 feet 3 inches 146 feet 0 inches Wingspan 94 feet 3 inches 112 feet 6 inches 124 feet 8 inches 117 feet 5 inches Height Overall 34 feet 7 inches 41 feet 4 inches 45 feet 1 inches 38 feet 7 inches Maximum Ramp 107,916 lbs 188,200 lbs 221,000 lbs 207,000 lbs Weight Typical Approach Speed 125 knots 141 knots 137 knots 142 knots Approach Speed C D C D Category
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Airplane Design Group II III IV III Source: Aircraft Manufacturers
Forecast Methodology and Approach Montrose Regional Airport is unique, in that it is highly seasonal and relies heavily on inbound traffic due to its tourism based economy. While the last few years have shown rapidly increasing levels of scheduled air service and corresponding enplanements, it is expected that these sharp increases will level over the forecast period. Below are some macro and micro factors impacting enplanement forecasts.
Factors Impacting Passenger Enplanement Forecasts Demand for commercial air service and enplanement levels at airports are affected by a variety of factors, including but not limited to the following:
• General Economic Environment: The macroeconomic environment in the United States impacts demand for air travel, including economic growth, levels of disposable income, and consumer confidence. In addition to macro-level factors, the economic environment of an airport service area is also an important element in forecasting demand. This includes trends in local employment levels, stability of the core economic base, and emerging trends in economic activity (e.g., energy business, biotechnology, etc.). The nature of traffic in a given market, whether it is premium-fare business traffic or discretionary demand dependent on disposable income, will play a role in carrier decisions with respect to service levels.
• Population and Demographics: Generally speaking, positive trends in socioeconomic and demographic factors in an airport service area generate a direct correlated increase in demand for air transportation. As will be discussed in further detail in the following section, while this is an important factor for MTJ service levels, it is not as critical as it is for other airports due to the inbound tourism element of the passenger traffic pattern at MTJ.
• Airline Strategies: The strategic decisions of airlines play a major role in stimulating or, conversely, suppressing passenger demand at an airport. Such strategy decisions can relate to pricing models, frequency, schedules, aircraft type, destinations, etc.
• Service at Neighboring Airports: The presence of superior or inferior service levels at neighboring airports can affect the enplanements at a local airport. For example, as Southwest Airlines serves Denver, some travelers generated in the Montrose Regional Airport service area will drive to DEN if ticket prices at MTJ do not equal those at DEN. However, due to the very long drive (five hours), this leakage dynamic is likely low.
3-20 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Forecast Uncertainties Specific to Montrose Regional Airport Air passenger traffic is affected by a range of economic and other factors. Specific to Montrose, we would note the following:
• Inbound Tourism Destination and General Economic Conditions: Due to the inbound nature of the passenger traffic at MTJ and the outdoor leisure activities that the region has to offer, this type of travel can be sensitive to the general economic conditions in the U.S. If a recession were to occur, there is typically less propensity to travel due to worsening economic conditions and the impact on the typical household.
• Colorado Flights Alliance Participation in MTJ Air Service: Colorado Flights Alliance is an organization that leads economic development on Colorado’s western slope by attracting and retaining air service through risk mitigation partnerships. Funding for such activities comes from a variety of sources across the region. Currently, they partner with Delta, United, American, and Allegiant on various seasonal nonstop service. While Colorado Flights Alliance provides an excellent benefit to the region, it is uncertain if future funding levels will be available to continue to subsidize air service.
• Fuel Prices: There is no certainty in regard to the cost of jet fuel. As we have seen over the last several years, there can be rapid and volatile shifts in the price of crude oil, which directly impacts the price of jet fuel. Given that approximately 55% of the 2016 scheduled operations at MTJ are with 50-seat regional jets, increasing fuel prices negatively impacts the profitability of these aircraft more than newer dual class regional jets and mainline aircraft. Service levels may be affected if fuel prices increase precipitously in the future.
• Airline Capacity Discipline: As a result of numerous airline bankruptcies and subsequent mergers between several airlines over the last ten years, air carriers are operating much more rationally than ever before. The primary focus for airlines is on profitability, not passenger share. While this may seem logical, it was the latter that was the primary focus of airlines for many years (the defending the turf mentality) that led to poor network planning decisions and unprofitable routes. Now that airlines are run more efficiently, each aircraft in an airline’s fleet will be deployed in markets where there is the greatest potential for profitability. This may impact Montrose should an airline decide that the aircraft is more suitable for a different market.
Determination of Methodology Four different methodologies were analyzed for the Montrose Regional Airport enplanement forecast. These include the following: • Population Driven Forecast • Per Capita Personal Income Driven Forecast • Percent Share of National Enplanements Driven Forecast • Northwest Mountain Region Enplanement Growth Driven Forecast
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-21 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Each methodology is examined in greater detail below. Population Driven Forecast Methodology Population driven forecasts are a common methodology that often yields reasonable and reliable forecast trends for many U.S. airports. As previously mentioned, approximately 72% of all passenger traffic at MTJ is inbound traffic; typically, leisure travelers coming to the area for recreational opportunities. Twenty-eight percent of the traffic is outbound, which is more closely tied to the population growth in the region.
The formula to calculate the population driven forecast utilized the U.S. population growth projections from 2016-2035 and multiplied the CAGR of approximately 0.85% for 72% of the enplanements at MTJ over the forecast period. The other 28% of the forecasted enplanements utilized the CAGR for the same time period for population growth in Montrose County, which is very similar to the U.S. average, at 0.89%. The resulting forecast begins in 2016 with 103,610 enplanements and ends with 122,995 in 2035.
Furthermore, when analyzing the correlation between MTJ enplanements and the population growth of Montrose County population between 2005 and 2015, the resulting R-Squared is .32, indicating very little correlation between population growth of the county and enplanements. When using the same technique to analyze the correlation between MTJ enplanements and the population growth of the U.S. between 2005 and 2015, the resulting R-Squared is .18, indicating even less correlation between population and MTJ enplanements. For these reasons, population growth is not viewed as the most appropriate measure for forecasting MTJ enplanements for this Master Plan forecast.
Figure 3-8. Population Driven Enplanement Forecast CY 2016 -2035
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75,000
50,000
3-22 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Source: Boyd Group International
Per Capita Income Driven Forecast Methodology Per capita income is another common and often used forecasting methodology for enplanements at U.S. airports. As income rises, propensity to travel typically rises as well, thus generating a metric for enplanement estimation. The per capita income 2016-2035 CAGR for the U.S. and for Montrose County is approximately 1.2% using 2009 chained dollars. When using this percentage to forecast enplanement growth, the result is slightly higher than using the population methodology. The per capita income driven enplanement forecast for 2016 is 103,903 and it culminates with 2035 enplanements forecasted at 131,145.
Similar to the population based methodology, the correlation between per capita income and MTJ enplanements is very low for the years between 2005 and 2015. Regression analysis indicates that the R- Squared, when predicting enplanements based on per capita income of Montrose County is .04, which shows essentially no correlation between the two variables. Likewise, when predicting 2005 through 2015 MTJ enplanements using the U.S. per capita income between 2005 and 2015, the R-Squared is .06. Due to the lack of correlation, per capita income driven methodology of forecasting future MTJ enplanements is not viewed as an appropriate measure for this Master Plan forecast.
Figure 3-9. Per Capita Income Driven Enplanement Forecast CY 2016 -2035
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MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-23 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Source: Boyd Group International
Percent Share of National Enplanements Forecast Methodology The percent share of national enplanement methodology is dependent upon having a forecast of national enplanements for the period (2016-2035). The Federal Aviation Administration issues its “FAA Aerospace Forecast” each year, which has a domestic enplanement forecast for the stated time period. This forecast has been utilized as a basis for the MTJ percent share of national enplanements going forward. Historically, MTJ enplanements have ranged between .012% and .015% of the national enplanements. The ten year average of the percent share of national enplanements is .0136%.
Table 3-7: MTJ % Share of Nat ional Domestic Enplanements CY 2006 - 2015
10 Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average MTJ Enplanements 81.0 91.4 85.5 92.0 96.6 87.6 74.5 83.4 90.3 102.6 88.5 National Domestic 658,363 679,168 651,709 618,051 629,538 638,247 642,289 645,679 662,831 696,186 652,206 Enplanements MTJ % Share of Nat'l 0.0123% 0.0135% 0.0131% 0.0149% 0.0153% 0.0137% 0.0116% 0.0129% 0.0136% 0.0147% 0.0136% Domestic Enplanements (000s) Source: BTS T-100 Data
When further analyzing the MTJ percent share of national enplanements, it becomes clear that this is not an appropriate methodology for forecasting future MTJ enplanements. The FAA 2016-2035 national domestic enplanement forecast is as follows:
Figure 3-10 . FAA Domestic Enplanement Forecast CY 2016 -2035
1,000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0 700.0 650.0 600.0
3-24 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2015-2035
Based on the FAA domestic enplanement forecast, utilizing the .0136% ten year average of MTJ enplanements as a percentage of national enplanements results in MTJ figures that are inconsistent with recent trends at the airport. Furthermore, MTJ enplanements do not necessarily correlate to national trends. For example, national enplanements have increased by approximately 9% between 2011 and 2015 (638 million vs. 69638 million), based on BTS T-100 data. However, MTJ enplanements have increased by approximately 21% during this same five year timeframe. Clearly, there is little correlation between the national trends and the current MTJ trends. For these reasons, it has been determined that MTJ enplanements as a percent share of the national enplanements is not an appropriate methodology for forecasting at MTJ.
Northwest Mountain Region Enplanement Growth Forecast Methodology The Northwest Mountain is the Federal Aviation Administration classification of airports in the following states: • Colorado • Idaho • Montana • Oregon • Utah • Washington • Wyoming The analysis of enplanement trends in these seven states indicate the growth rate for the region as a whole compared to Montrose Regional Airport. In addition to comparing the growth rate of the entire Northwest Mountain region to MTJ, the growth rate of the CO Western Slope airports were compared to that of MTJ as well. This provided insight into how the greater region and immediate region are performing vs. MTJ.
Table 3-8. MTJ Enplanements 10 Ye ar CAGR vs. CO Western Slope & NW Mountain Region CY 2006 – 2015
10 Year Airport 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR DRO 113,479 116,232 134,321 148,049 163,589 175,646 186,551 192,636 193,703 186,790 5.1% GJT 159,444 170,331 212,469 228,810 219,336 217,915 217,234 210,868 214,248 214,190 3.0% MTJ 81,047 91,358 85,468 92,025 96,626 87,558 74,516 83,443 90,332 102,637 2.4% GUC 48,065 42,480 35,930 42,104 37,285 36,511 31,147 30,568 31,719 34,395 -3.3% TEX 16,329 16,177 13,137 6,522 9,192 10,911 7,550 6,052 3,470 13 -51.0% CO Western Slope 418,364 436,578 481,325 517,510 526,028 528,541 516,998 523,567 533,472 538,025 2.5% Northwest Mountain Region 62,986,336 66,055,832 65,736,556 63,582,128 65,419,904 66,563,936 67,114,484 67,548,174 70,434,723 73,313,820 1.5% Source: BTS T-100 Data
Based on the BTS T-100 data, a common pattern arises between MTJ enplanement growth over the last ten years when compared to both the Western Slope airports and the Northwest Mountain region. MTJ’s 10 year CAGR for enplanement growth is 2.4%, compared to a 2.5% growth rate for the five CO Western Slope airports. The 10 year CAGR for the entire Northwest Mountain region airports is 1.5%
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-25 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND during this same timeframe. MTJ, GJT, and DRO are clearly the preferred airports on the Western Slope. GUC has a -3.3% per year CAGR and TEX has lost scheduled commercial service altogether, resulting in a -51% per year CAGR. MTJ has benefited from the unfortunate trends at GUC and TEX. Due to the realities of airline strategies in the U.S., this will likely continue into the future. As a conservative measure, it has been determined that the most appropriate methodology for forecasting future MTJ enplanements for the years 2016-2035 is to extrapolate the Northwest Mountain region growth rate of 1.5% to MTJ enplanement growth. While the CO Western Slope growth rate is significantly higher at 2.5%, a conservative approach is the suitable methodology for this forecast.
Figure 3-11 . NW Mountain Region Driven Enplanement Forecast CY 2016 -2035
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Source: Boyd Group International
Forecast Summary: 2016 – 2035 The methodologies analyzed for the MTJ 2016-2035 enplanement forecast, in addition to a comparison to the Terminal Area Forecast, are illustrated on the graph below:
Figure 3-12 . Enplanement Forecast Comparison CY 2016 -2035
3-26 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
MTJ enplanements are projected to grow from approximately 104,000 in 2016 to 139,000 in 2035 175,000 Historical Forecast 150,000
125,000
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TAF Population Driven NW Mountain Enpl. Growth Driven Personal Income Per Capita CO Western Slope Enpl. Growth Driven Source: Boyd Group International
The population growth, per capita income, and Northwest Mountain region methodologies yielded relatively similar results. Due to the lack of correlation between population growth, per capita income growth and MTJ enplanements between the years 2005 and 2015, the most appropriate methodology for projecting 2016-2035 MTJ enplanements is the Northwest Mountain region enplanement growth. For comparison purposes, the CO Western Slope ten year CAGR methodology is also depicted on the graph, which is considered aggressive at this time, even though that has been the previous ten year trend. The conservative methodology was used to project the Northwest Mountain region ten year CAGR approach.
Annual departures, average seats per departure, departing seats, and projected load factor are outlined below for the period 2016-2035.
Table 3-9. Enplanement and Operational Summary CY 2016 -2035
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-27 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Avg. Seats Passenger YOY % Annual YOY % Departing Load Year Per Enplanements Change Departures Change Seats Factor Departure
Historical 2011 84,701 2,175 59.1 128,640 65.8% 2012 73,320 -13.4% 1,685 -22.5% 59.5 100,289 73.1% 2013 80,173 9.3% 1,663 -1.3% 68.5 113,976 70.3% 2014 86,728 8.2% 1,721 3.5% 70.4 121,209 71.6% 2015 102,637 18.3% 1,875 8.9% 75.2 140,941 72.8% Projection 2016 104,207 1.5% 2,118 13.0% 68.8 145,657 71.5% 2017 105,802 1.5% 2,139 1.0% 69.2 147,974 71.5% 2018 107,420 1.5% 2,161 1.0% 69.5 150,238 71.5% 2019 109,064 1.5% 2,182 1.0% 69.9 152,536 71.5% 2020 110,732 1.5% 2,204 1.0% 70.3 154,870 71.5% 2021 112,426 1.5% 2,226 1.0% 70.6 157,239 71.5% 2022 114,146 1.5% 2,248 1.0% 71.0 159,645 71.5% 2023 115,893 1.5% 2,271 1.0% 71.4 162,087 71.5% 2024 117,666 1.5% 2,293 1.0% 71.8 164,567 71.5% 2025 119,466 1.5% 2,316 1.0% 72.1 167,085 71.5% 2026 121,293 1.5% 2,340 1.0% 72.5 169,641 71.5% 2027 123,149 1.5% 2,363 1.0% 72.9 172,237 71.5% 2028 125,033 1.5% 2,387 1.0% 73.3 174,872 71.5% 2029 126,946 1.5% 2,410 1.0% 73.7 177,547 71.5% 2030 128,888 1.5% 2,435 1.0% 74.0 180,263 71.5% 2031 130,860 1.5% 2,459 1.0% 74.4 183,021 71.5% 2032 132,862 1.5% 2,484 1.0% 74.8 185,821 71.5% 2033 134,895 1.5% 2,508 1.0% 75.2 188,664 71.5% 2034 136,959 1.5% 2,533 1.0% 75.6 191,550 71.5% 2035 139,054 1.5% 2,559 1.0% 76.0 194,481 71.5% Source: BTS T-100 Data; Innovata, LCC
Enplanement Forecast Comparison to 2015 TAF Projections A comparison for each five year increment between the airport enplanement forecast and the Terminal Area Forecast illustrates that the airport forecast is within 10% of the TAF for the five year forecast period (8.6%) and 15% within the 10 year forecast period (14.7%).
The commercial operations (departures and arrivals) show large variances. The reason for this is unknown, as the TAF shows 5,435 commercial operations for 2015, when BTS T-100 data results in 3,764 total commercial operations. While both the forecast and the TAF commercial operations increase by 1% each year between 2015 and 2035, they start with very different base year operations for 2015.
3-28 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Table 3-10 . Five Year Commercial Enplanement and Operations Comparison vs. TAF CY 2016 -2035
Terminal Airport Area AF/TAF % Year Forecast (AF) Forecast Difference (TAF) Passenger
Enplanements Base Year 2015 102,637 99,990 2.6% Base Year + 5 yrs. 2020 110,732 101,969 8.6% Base Year + 10 yrs. 2025 119,466 104,144 14.7% Base Year + 15 yrs. 2030 128,888 106,536 21.0% Base Year + 20 yrs. 2035 139,054 109,171 27.4%
Commercial
Operations Base Year 2015 3,764 5,435 -30.7% Base Year + 5 yrs. 2020 4,408 5,702 -22.7% Base Year + 10 yrs. 2025 4,633 5,987 -22.6% Base Year + 15 yrs. 2030 4,869 6,276 -22.4% Base Year + 20 yrs. 2035 5,118 6,580 -22.2%
Source: BTS T-100 Data for Base yr.and FAA Terminal Area Forecast
Air Carrier Forecast Activity Average daily departures and average seats per departure are expected to increase gradually over the twenty year forecast period. In 2016, it is estimated that average daily departures will be 5.8 at MTJ. In the final year of the forecast, average daily departures are expected to reach 7.0. Average seats per departure in 2016 are estimated to be 68.8, while the 2035 forecast shows average seats per departure being 76.0.
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-29 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Figure 3-13 . Avg. Daily Departures and Seats per Departure CY 2016 -2035
8.0 80.0 Historical Forecast 7.0 70.0 Avg. Seats Per Departure 6.0 60.0 5.0 50.0 4.0 40.0 3.0 30.0 2.0 20.0 Avg. Daily Departures Daily Avg. 1.0 10.0 0.0 0.0
Avg. Seats Per Departure Avg. Daily Departures
Source: Boyd Group International
Peak Demand – Monthly and Hourly Historically, Montrose Regional Airport has had seasonal patterns of service throughout the year. The seasonality of air service and passenger traffic is closely correlated, with Q1 of each year accounting for almost 50% of all passenger traffic and airline capacity.
3-30 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Figure 3-14 . MJT Peak Passengers by Month – 5 year Average CY 2011 -2035 (% of Annual Total)
The peak month for MTJ 20.0% passengers is March 18.0% 17.5% 16.0% 14.6% 14.0% 12.7% 11.5% 12.0% 10.0% 8.8% 8.2% 8.0% 6.4% 5.9% 6.0% 4.4% 3.7% 3.1% 4.0% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0%
5 Year Average
Source: BTS T-100 Data
Approximately 17.5% of all annual passengers over the five year period 2011-2015 traveled to/from MTJ in March. As the graph indicates, May and November are the least traveled months at MTJ. March is expected to be the peak month at MTJ over the forecast period 2016-2035. March is also the peak month for commercial air carrier operations at MTJ (departures and arrivals), with approximately 16% of all annual commercial operations occurring during that month over the 2011-2015 timeframe. This is not expected to change over the 2016-2035 forecast period.
Figure 3-15 . MTJ Peak Operations by Month – 5 Year Average CY 2011 -2035 (% of Annual Total)
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-31 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
The peak month for MTJ commercial operations is March 18.0% 15.7% 16.0% 12.9% 14.0% 12.9% 12.0% 9.8% 9.6% 10.0% 8.9% 8.0% 7.2% 6.2% 5.1% 6.0% 4.5% 3.6% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
5 Year Average
Source: BTS T-100 Data
The forecast for peak daily and hourly operations and passengers is based on the typical busiest day of the week during March at MTJ – Saturday. Due to the extreme seasonality of the weekly operations at MTJ during March, the most active day was chosen in order to appropriately reflect the true hourly peaking activity. On a typical Saturday during March, approximately 31 commercial operations occur and 26% of the commercial operations occur during the peak hour. Data from the most recently filed schedules were used to estimate this percentage. Therefore, during the base year of 2015, approximately eight operations occurred during the peak hour. This is estimated to increase to approximately 11 during 2035. The design day passengers were calculated by dividing the design day operations by total monthly operations for the base year (31/595 = 5.2%) and multiplying that percentage by the peak month passengers. Peak hour passengers were calculated by multiplying the percent of daily passengers during the peak hour by the design day passengers (1,805*26% = 469)
Table 3-11 . MTJ Peak Month/Day/Hour Passengers and Operations
3-32 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Base Yr. Base Yr. + 1 Base Yr. + 5 Base Yr. + 10 Base Yr. + 20 2015 2016 2020 2025 2035 Peak Month/Hour Operations - Air Carrier Annual Operations (Arrivals and Departures) 3,768 4,236 4,408 4,633 5,118 Peak Month Operations (15.7% of Total) 595 636 692 727 803 Design Day Operations 31.0 33.0 35.9 37.7 41.7 % Daily Operations During Peak Hour 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% Peak Hour Operations 8.1 8.6 9.3 9.8 10.8 Peak Month/Hour Passengers - Air Carrier Annual Passengers (Enplaned and Deplaned) 205,549 208,414 221,464 238,932 278,108 Peak Month Passengers (17.5% of Total) 34,645 36,472 38,756 41,813 48,669 Design Day Passengers 1,805 1,892 2,011 2,170 2,525 % Daily Passengers During Peak Hour 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% Peak Hour Passengers 469 492 523 564 657 Source: BTS T-100 Data
Cargo Forecast Air cargo activity has been limited to freight carried by Keylime Air, United and American (or their regional affiliates) over the last several years. Cargo is not a major component of the air carrier activity at MTJ. During 2015, 975 pounds of freight were carried. The CAGR for cargo between 2005 and 2015 was 4.1%. This has been extrapolated for the forecast between 2016 and 2035.
Table 3-12 . Cargo Freight/Mail Forecast (Lbs .) CY 2016 -2035
Base Year Base Yr. +1 Base Yr. + 5 Base Yr. + 10 Base Yr. + 20 20 Year 2015 2016 2020 2025 2035 CAGR Total Cargo 975 1,018 1,208 1,496 2,294 4.1% (Freight and Mail) Source: BTS T-100 Data
Factors Affecting General Aviation Demand The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization rates from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the GA fleet and activity.
The results of the 2014 GA Survey, the latest available, were consistent with the results of surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The 2014 Survey recorded the first increase to the GA fleet since 2007, particularly since the implementation of 2010 Rule for Re- Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration. The active GA fleet was estimated as 204,408 aircraft in 2014 (up 2.2 percent from 2013), with 23.3 million hours flown (up 1.7 percent from 2013).
In 2015, the general aviation industry experienced its first decline in deliveries since 2010. While the single engine piston aircraft deliveries by U.S. manufacturers continued to grow and business jet deliveries recorded a very modest increase compared to the previous year, turboprop deliveries were down by 10 percent, and much smaller category of multi-engine piston deliveries declined 40 percent. Based on figures released by GAMA, U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 1,581 aircraft in CY 2015, 3.1 percent fewer than CY 2014. This was the first decline after four years of growth
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-33 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND in shipments that showed first signs of slowing down in 2014. Single engine piston deliveries increased by 3.4 percent in 2015, but the decrease in multi-engine piston shipments caused a 0.6 percent decrease in overall piston airplane deliveries. In the turbine categories, turbojet deliveries were up by 0.8 percent. With the 10 percent decline in turboprop deliveries, total turbine shipments went down by 5.3 percent in 2015.
The forecast of GA activity will incorporate socioeconomic factors which typically impact aviation demand. These factors include regulatory policy, new technologies, geographic characteristics, aviation industry trends and fluctuations in regional economy.
The development of forecasts of general aviation demand for the Airport is presented in the following sections.
• Factors Affecting Future General Aviation Demand • Historical General Aviation Demand • Previous Forecasts of General Aviation Demand • Annual Aircraft Operations Forecast • Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
The forecast of aviation demand provides projected activity for 5, 10 and 20 year planning horizons. The projected estimate of future aviation activity levels at the Airport will serve as a guide for implementation of future development projects and allow MTJ to prudently plan for future capital investments.
The following sections present opportunities and challenges to the local and national general aviation industry. These items will likely impact future activity at MTJ and the Western Slope of Colorado. General Aviation Trends The FAA Aerospace Forecast 2016 – 2036 (FAA Aerospace Forecast) projects the long term outlook for general aviation is favorable, led by gains in turbine aircraft activity. The active general aviation fleet is forecast to increase 0.2 percent a year between 2016 and 2036, equating to an absolute increase in the fleet of about 7,000 units.
Steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing piston aircraft, continues to shrink over the forecast. Although fleet growth is minimal, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.2 percent per year through 2036, as growth in turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.
With increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, the FAA expect increased activity growth, which has the potential to increase controller workload.
Operations at FAA and contract towers are forecast to increase 0.9 percent a year over the forecast period with commercial activity growing at five times the rate of non-commercial activity. The growth in U.S. airline and business aviation activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see much faster increases than small and non-hub airports, largely due to the commercial nature of their operations.
3-34 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND FAA’s forecast for the general aviation fleet through the year 2036 includes the following:
• Active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent • Turbo Prop fleet is projected to grow at an average annual Growth rate of 2.7 percent • Turbine jet portion of the turbine-powered fleet increasing at 3.4 percent a year • Piston-powered aircraft is projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent by 2036, with declines in both single and multi-engine fixed wing aircraft • The Sport aircraft category is forecasted to increase by 4.5 percent annually through 2036 These national general aviation trends will be considered throughout the forecast of aviation-demand for MTJ.
Unmanned Aircraft Systems Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) have operated in the National Airspace System (NAS) for approximately 20 years. The early applications were primarily in military and security industries. As the technology has evolved, UAS have expanded into other industries such as aerial photography, agriculture, infrastructure inspection, land survey and communications.
The FAA Aerospace Forecast 2016 – 2036 states that UAS operations will be a significant component of the NAS with approximately 542,500 annual UAS operations by 2020.
FAA’s guidance will open the door for the uses listed above at all sizes of airports, including MTJ. While this trend is recognized in this forecast of aviation demand, there is currently no evidence that UAS operations will occur at MTJ in the foreseeable future, and will therefore not be outlined in this Chapter as a separate forecast of operations or based aircraft.
Historical General Aviation Activity Base year historical aviation activity data, FAA or sponsor data sources, are the foundation of aviation forecast activity. There is a discrepancy between available data sources for MTJ based aircraft for 2015. The FAA TAF forecast indicates a 2015 based aircraft count of 89, while the latest FAA 5010 Report indicates a based aircraft count of 71 fixed wing aircraft, 3 rotorcraft, 3 gliders and 1 ultralight aircraft for a total of 78 based aircraft.
The airport sponsor and the FAA’s National Based Aircraft Inventory Program indicate that the actual based aircraft number for the base year (2015) is 78. MTJ is not equipped with an air traffic control tower, nor does it have any other supplementary system to count daily aircraft operations. FAA Order 5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems provides a general guideline in estimating annual aircraft operations of 250 operations per based fix wing aircraft (OPBA) at rural general aviation airports. This general guideline would result in a current annual aircraft operations count of 19,500.
Historical based aircraft counts ranged from a low of 55 in the early 2004 to a high of 107 in 2007. In 2010, the FAA instituted a structured method for reporting and collecting based aircraft totals at airports across the country. As a result, “double counting” based aircraft has essentially been
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-35 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND eliminated and based aircraft totals have decreased across the country. MTJ based aircraft totals have correspondingly decreased, consistent with the national trend. Table 3-13 shows the historical based aircraft, operations and operations per based aircraft (OPBA) since 1990.
Table 3-13 . MTJ Historical Aviation Activity Year Historical Based A/C Historical GA Operations OPBA 1990 63 28,448 452 1991 65 23,014 354 1992 65 25,910 399 1993 65 25,940 399 1994 65 27,812 428 1995 69 19,610 284 1996 76 23,217 305 1997 76 23,540 310 1998 76 23,744 312 1999 85 23,969 282 2000 85 24,194 285 2001 59 23,964 406 2002 59 24,194 410 2003 59 24,387 413 2004 55 24,578 447 2005 94 25,206 268 2006 75 25,380 338 2007 107 25,558 239 2008 80 17,791 222 2009 80 17,791 222 2010 85 22,505 265 2011 85 22,505 265 2012 87 26,054 299 2013 89 27,680 311 2014 78 27,680 355 2015 78 27,904 358 25 year Average OPBA 332
Source: MTJ Airport Management, 2016 FAA TAF, National Based Aircraft Inventory Program
Previous Forecasts of Aviation Demand Previous forecasts are evaluated to determine if these projections of aviation demand are still valid or if they are out of date. Previous aviation demand forecasts shown in Table 3-14 for MTJ include the CDOT Colorado System Plan Forecast, FAA Terminal Area Forecast February 2016 (FAA TAF), previous Airport Master Plan and the FAA Aerospace Forecast. The FAA Aerospace Forecast is a national forecast which provides projected activity level for the aviation industry as a whole, and the forecast’s trends are applied to MTJ’s baseline activity in this section.
3-36 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Table 3-14 . Previous Aviation Demand Forecasts Previous Forecasts – Based Aircraft Existing (2015) 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR CDOT Colorado System Plan Forecast 88 90 93 95 98 0.54% FAA TAF 89 90 91 91 91 0.11% Previous Airport Master Plan 69 77 88 87 96 1.66% FAA Aerospace Forecast* 78 79 80 80 81 0.20%
Previous Forecasts - Total Operations Existing (2015) 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR CDOT Colorado System Plan Forecast 18,430 19,300 20,235 21,170 22,105 0.91% FAA TAF 27,904 29,057 30,297 31,615 33,034 0.85% Previous Airport Master Plan 19,772 23,483 27,891 32,299 36,707 3.14% FAA Aerospace Forecast* 27,904 30,358 33,028 35,932 39,092 1.70% *Growth rate based on FAA Aerospace Forecast for Active General Aviation Fleet (Based Aircraft) and Active General Aviation Hours Flown (Operations)
Future Forecast Scenarios The process of developing a preferred forecast is interpretative and is based on knowledge of local and national aviation trends and understanding of the aspects that affect those trends. The demand factors and assumptions incorporated in to this analysis are summarized in this section.
Forecast Assumptions The current aviation environment with cost cutting maximization of business efficiencies is not expected to change in the near future and will likely affect general aviation activity nationwide. The following general assumptions about aviation activity on a national and local level were considered in developing the aviation demand forecasts for MTJ:
• General Aviation demand will be unconstrained during the planning period (2016 – 2035). • Based aircraft and operational activity for the region will remain consistent with projections provided in the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast. • The “light-sport” aircraft category will continue to grow per the FAA’s Aerospace Forecast. Forecast Methodologies The forecast of aviation demand is developed through a variety of statistical analysis that demonstrate historical relationships between components of aviation demand and various socioeconomic factors. The statistical analysis techniques applied to this forecast include:
• Trend Analysis • Market Share Analysis • Operations Per Based Aircraft (OPBA) • Regression Analysis
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-37 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND There are also factors that are considered when developing alternative scenarios, as is done in this general aviation demand forecast, which include:
• Fluctuations in local and national socioeconomic conditions • Impact of tourism attractions • Intended application of forecast
The scenarios considered in this analysis include these above-mentioned factors when determining the possible impacts to base year numbers. Based Aircraft Forecast Accurate forecasting of based aircraft is essential for general aviation airports like MTJ as it assists the sponsor in correctly timing investments in facility expansions. Examples of the facilities affected by based aircraft counts include hangars, apron space and tie-downs.
Since 1990, based aircraft counts have fluctuated year to year as discussed in Section 3.9 from a low of 55 to a high of 107. Four based aircraft forecasts were developed for the purpose of this Master Plan, each is outlined below, with a preferred forecast determined at the end of the Chapter.
Trend Analysis A trend analysis was conducted using historical data available from the FAA TAF. While the historical trends are not linear in nature, they do indicate that growth in both based aircraft and annual operations has occurred over the past 20 years. See Table 3-15 .
Table 3-15 . Based Aircraft Trend Analysis Historical Based Forecasted Based Year A/C Aircraft 1990 63 - 1995 69 - 2000 85 - 2005 94 - 2010 85 - 2015 78 - 2020 - 81 2025 - 85 2030 - 88 2035 - 92 CAGR 0.82% 0.81% Source: FAA, MTJ Airport Management
Applying the historical compound average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.81% equal to the CAGR for based aircraft at MTJ from 1990-2015 to the existing 78 based aircraft total results in a 2035 forecast of 92 based aircraft.
3-38 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Share Analysis Share analysis can be applied to any measure for which a reliable higher-level (i.e., larger aggregate) forecast is available. Historical shares are calculated and used as a basis for projecting future shares.
A share analysis compares local aviation activity to regional, state and national trends. Historical activity at MTJ was compared to surrounding NPIAS airports and the State of Colorado as a whole. The surrounding NPIAS airports against which MTJ, is compared against include: Telluride Regional Airport (TEX), Durango-La Plata County Airport (DRO), Gunnison-Crested Butte Regional Airport (GUC) and Grand Junction Regional Airport (GJT). Summaries of historic shares of based aircraft are shown in Table 3-16 .
Table 3-16 . MTJ Share of Surrounding Airport Based Aircraft
MTJ Share MTJ Share MTJ Share MTJ Share Year MTJ Share of DRO of TEX of GUC of GJT of Combined 1990 166% 1050% 225% 67% 27.5% 1991 141% 591% 361% 58% 25.7% 1992 141% 464% 361% 58% 25.4% 1993 141% 464% 361% 58% 25.4% 1994 120% 283% 197% 58% 22.6% 1995 115% 300% 173% 61% 22.6% 1996 133% 317% 262% 70% 25.8% 1997 138% 262% 262% 68% 25.3% 1998 138% 262% 262% 68% 25.3% 1999 160% 236% 266% 67% 25.6% 2000 160% 236% 266% 67% 25.6% 2001 100% 134% 211% 39% 17.3% 2002 91% 128% 197% 37% 16.5% 2003 91% 123% 197% 36% 16.2% 2004 87% 134% 190% 35% 15.9% 2005 145% 261% 348% 64% 25.5% 2006 103% 179% 242% 51% 20.4% 2007 147% 255% 357% 52% 23.5% 2008 110% 190% 267% 48% 20.4% 2009 110% 190% 267% 70% 23.6% 2010 116% 224% 370% 75% 25.5% 2011 121% 500% 340% 81% 28.1% 2012 124% 229% 348% 85% 27.0% 2013 127% 287% 356% 87% 28.1% 2014 127% 297% 356% 87% 28.2% 2015 127% 297% 356% 86% 28.1% Source: FAA TAF, 2016
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-39 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Table 3-16 shows the percent share of the based aircraft at MTJ compared to NPIAS airports surrounding MTJ has fluctuated over the past 15 years. Four of the past five years has been relatively stable around 28 percent of the regional share. However, the historical fluctuation does not provide strong significant consistencies when it comes to shares of based aircraft as compared to surrounding NPIAS airports.
In addition to surrounding airports, activity at MTJ was compared to historical general aviation based aircraft in the State of Colorado. The results of this historical comparison are outlined in Table 3-17 .
Table 3-17 . MTJ Share of Based Aircraft in the State of Colorado
MTJ Share of Based Year A/C
1990 1.64% 1991 1.77% 1992 1.74% 1993 1.74% 1994 1.76% 1995 1.85% 1996 2.05% 1997 2.00% 1998 1.92% 1999 2.05% 2000 2.04% 2001 1.28% 2002 1.26% 2003 1.27% 2004 1.14% 2005 1.87% 2006 1.51% 2007 2.12% 2008 1.74% 2009 1.74% 2010 1.86% 2011 1.88% 2012 1.90% 2013 1.91% 2014 1.89% 2015* 1.87% Source: FAA TAF, 2016
Table 3-17 shows that MTJ’s share of the State of Colorado’s based aircraft count has remained consistent since the FAA instituted revised based aircraft reporting standards in 2010, maintaining a 1.86
3-40 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND percent to 1.89 percent share of based aircraft in the State. The TAF forecasts based aircraft in the State of Colorado to grow at 0.87 percent CAGR through 2035. Assuming, a starting point of 78 based aircraft as reported by the Airport, and applying CAGR 0.87 percent consistent with the projected growth in based aircraft in Colorado through 2035, would result in a based aircraft count of 93 at the end of the planning horizon.
Regression Analysis A statistical method frequently employed during the development of a general aviation forecast is regression analysis. In regression analysis, the value being estimated (or forecast), the dependent variable, is related to other variables that correlate to the estimated value. Regression analysis was used to compare the historical changes in aviation activity at MTJ to historical socioeconomic variables. The variables considered were:
• Montrose County Population • Montrose County Per Capita Income • Montrose County Total Employment
Data from Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. was used as the basis for the regression analysis. There were no statistically significant correlations found between the above-mentioned variables and annual aircraft operations at MTJ. Therefore, this analysis will not be used in determining the preferred aviation demand forecast.
Preferred Based Aircraft Forecast The selection of the preferred based aircraft forecast is based on a consideration of each of the above- mentioned forecasts, summarized in Figure 3-16 .
The trend analysis is a simple projection based upon historical activity; however, the 0.81 percent growth rate resulting from this analysis is inconsistent with both the FAA’s forecast of general aviation activity and the local socioeconomic forecasts for Montrose County.
The FAA’s 2015 TAF projects a 0.11 percent CAGR in based aircraft through 2035. However, the base year (2015) based aircraft count in the TAF is 89, which results in a 2035 projection of 91 aircraft. When the base year aircraft count is adjusted to the FAA verified total of 78, the 0.81 percent TAF growth rate results in a forecast of 91 based aircraft in 2035.
Regression analysis shows no correlation between based aircraft at MTJ, total employment, population and Per Capita Income (PCI) within Montrose County.
The recommended forecast methodology for based aircraft at MTJ is market share of aircraft based in the State of Colorado. Given this methodology, a CAGR of 0.87 percent is applied to the FAA verified total of 78, the 0.87 percent CAGR results in a forecast of 93 based aircraft in 2035.
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Figure 3-16 . Based Aircraft Forecast Comparison 120
100
80
60
BASED BASED AIRCRAFT 40 Preferred Forecast
20
0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 YEAR
Historical Data FAA TAF Trend Analysis FAA TAF Growth Rate (Share Analysis)
Source: Corgan Analysis, 2016
Table 3-18. Based Aircraft Forecast Summary
Market Share of Year FAA TAF Trend Analysis Colorado 2016 78 78 78 2020 78 81 81 2025 79 85 84 2030 79 88 88 2035 80 91 93 Source: Corgan Analysis, 2016
3-42 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Based Aircraft Fleet Mix The FAA’s Aerospace forecast indicates that the fastest growing segments of the general aviation fleet during the planning period will include Light Sport Aircraft (LSA), Jet (turbine) aircraft and helicopters. The LSA aircraft will likely replace any loss of single-engine traditional single-engine aircraft that occurs during the planning period. This is reflected in the based aircraft fleet mix forecast shown in Table 3-19 .
Table 3-19 . B ased Aircraft Fleet Mix Forecast Single Multi Jet Year Helicopter Other Total Engine Engine (Turbine) Historical 2015 56 13 2 3 4 78 Forecast 2020 54 12 4 5 6 81 2025 54 12 6 5 7 84 2030 53 12 8 6 9 88 2035 53 11 10 8 11 93 Source: Corgan Analysis, FAA Aerospace Forecast 2016-2036, 2016
General Aviation Operations Forecast The general aviation operations forecasts are based on historical and future general aviation trends. As is the case with many airports, there is currently no Air Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) at MTJ. Therefore, historic general aviation operations are often estimated based on fuel sales, aircraft logs, and periodic observations. While these estimates are not as accurate as a count that an ATCT would typically provide, general trends can be extracted using available data.
As shown in Table 3-20 , the previous Master Plan projected 19,772 annual general aviation aircraft operations in 2015 and a 3.14 percent annual growth rate for a 2035 operations forecast of 36,707.
Four new general aviation operations forecasts were developed for the purpose of this Master Plan; each is outlined below, with a preferred forecast determined at the end of the Chapter.
Table 3-20 . Previous Master P lan Fo recast
Historical GA Year Operations Future GA Operations 1995 19,610 - 2000 24,194 - 2005 25,206 - 2010 22,505 - 2015 27,904 - 2020 - 30,386 2025 - 33,090 2030 - 36,034
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-43 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
2035 - 39,239 CAGR 11.72% 1.72% Source: FAA, MTJ Airport Management
Trend Analysis A trend analysis was conducted using historical data available from the FAA TAF. While the historical trends are not linear in nature they do indicate that growth in both based aircraft and annual operations has occurred over the past 20 years. Error! Reference source not found. The 20-year historical trends indicate that annual aircraft operations at MTJ will grow at a rate slightly higher than that of the FAA’s TAF projections for MTJ.
Applying the historical average annual growth rate of 1.72 percent to the current level of demand results in a 2035 annual operations forecast of 39,239.
Operations Per Based Aircraft As noted earlier, FAA Order 5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems, uses a standard formula for determining operations at non-towered airports. The formula recommends that 250 OPBA be assumed for airports the size of MTJ .
The previous section recommended a based aircraft projection by applying the MTJ market share of based aircraft in the State of Colorado as projected in the FAA TAF, which yielded a based aircraft projection of 93 based aircraft in 2035. Applying the OPBA of 250 to this projection, results in a 2035 operations count of 23,250, the “NPIAS OPBA” forecast shown in Figure 3-17 .
Additional OPBA scenarios, based on the projection of 93 based aircraft by 2035, that were considered include the following and are illustrated below.
• 5010 OPBA – This scenario utilizes the based aircraft and operations numbers on the most recent FAA 5010 Form and applies the resulting OPBA (355) to the based aircraft projections. This results in a 2035 annual operations count of 33,003. • TAF OPBA – The OPBA resulting from the most recent FAA TAF historical data is 314. This scenario applies the 314 OPBA to the based aircraft projections and results in an annual operations count of 29,202 in 2035. • Historical Average OPBA – The historical OPBA’s back to 1990 average 328. This scenario assumes the historical average remains constant in the forecast years and when applied to the based aircraft projections, results in a 2035 annual operations count of 30,504.
Figure 3-17 . OPBA Forecast Scenarios
3-44 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
35,000 5010 OPBA 30,000 Operations Forecast
25,000 NPIAS OPBA Operations 20,000 Forecast
15,000 Historical Average OPBA 10,000 Operations Forecast TAF OPBA 5,000 Operations Forecast 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Source: Corgan Analysis, 2016
Share Analysis A share analysis similar to the one conducted for based aircraft was also completed for annual aircraft operations as outlined in Section 3.11.3.2 .
Table 3-21 . MTJ Share of Surrounding Airport Annual Operations MTJ MTJ MTJ Share MTJ Share Share of Share of of DRO of TEX MTJ Share of Year GUC GJT Combined 1990 44% 504% 177% 32% 13.9% 1991 39% 319% 100% 25% 11.2% 1992 43% 351% 110% 30% 12.6% 1993 43% 351% 110% 29% 12.6% 1994 39% 169% 70% 27% 10.7% 1995 54% 142% 59% 24% 10.7% 1996 47% 145% 79% 30% 11.8% 1997 47% 146% 79% 29% 11.8% 1998 47% 148% 78% 27% 11.4% 1999 47% 149% 78% 25% 11.0% 2000 47% 151% 77% 25% 11.0% 2001 47% 149% 76% 26% 11.1% 2002 48% 151% 76% 23% 10.6% 2003 48% 152% 75% 27% 11.4% 2004 48% 154% 75% 28% 11.5% 2005 48% 155% 74% 34% 12.5% 2006 48% 157% 74% 36% 12.8%
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-45 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
2007 48% 158% 73% 37% 12.8% 2008 36% 133% 132% 26% 11.0% 2009 36% 133% 203% 35% 12.7% 2010 51% 186% 306% 52% 17.4% 2011 51% 285% 305% 57% 18.5% 2012 60% 269% 308% 72% 21.1% 2013 62% 270% 439% 70% 21.6% 2014 108% 270% 531% 74% 26.1% 2015 108% 272% 527% 87% 27.5% Source: FAA TAF, 2016
Table 3-21 shows the percent share of general aviation operations at MTJ compared to NPIAS airports surrounding MTJ. The percent share has fluctuated over the past 15 years. Four of the past five years have been relatively stable with around 26 to 28 percent of the regional share. However, that fluctuation does not provide a strong historical consistency when it comes to shares of general aviation operations when compared to surrounding NPIAS airports.
In addition to surrounding airports, activity at MTJ was compared to historical general aviation operations in the State of Colorado. The results of this historical comparison are outlined in Table 3-22 .
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Table 3-22 . MTJ Share of Colorado GA Operations
MTJ Share of Year GA Ops
1990 1.07% 1991 0.85% 1992 0.93% 1993 0.91% 1994 0.92% 1995 0.81% 1996 1.03% 1997 1.02% 1998 0.96% 1999 0.90% 2000 0.90% 2001 0.94% 2002 0.89% 2003 0.98% 2004 0.99% 2005 1.01% 2006 1.00% 2007 0.99% 2008 0.68% 2009 0.73% 2010 1.04% 2011 1.13% 2012 1.36% 2013 1.41% 2014 1.41% 2015 1.38% Source: FAA TAF, 2016
Table 3-22 shows that MTJ’s share of the State of Colorado’s general aviation operations has experienced steady growth since the economic recession in 2008; growing from 0.68 percent to 1.38 percent share of total general aviation operations in the State. Applying 1.38 percent share to the projected total of GA operations for Colorado in 2035 of 1,852,819 operations would yield 25,654 annual GA operations.
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-47 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Reg ression Analysis Similar to the regression analysis applied to the based aircraft projections in the previous section, a regression analysis was completed to compare the historical general aviation operations at MTJ to historical socioeconomic variables. The variables considered were:
• Montrose County Population • Montrose County Per Capita Income • Montrose County Total Employment
There were no statistically significant correlations found between the above-mentioned variables and annual aircraft operations at MTJ. Therefore, this analysis will not be used in determining the preferred aviation demand forecast.
Preferred General Aviation Operations Forecast After reviewing the general aviation operational forecasts outlined in this section, the “Historical Average OPBA” is recommended to be carried forward as the “Preferred” general aviation operations forecast. The Historical Average OPBA is higher than other OPBA metrics considered in this forecast as a result of the transient nature of general aviation traffic at MTJ. The OPBA is naturally higher than other airports of similar size due to the proximity to regional tourism attractions and possessing a superior airfield capable of accommodating any general aviation aircraft in the fleet.
Figure 3-18 . General Aviation Operations Comparison
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000 Annual Aircraft Operations 5,000 Preferred Forecast 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Historical Data FAA TAF 5010 OPBA NPIAS OPBA Historical Average OPBA State Share
Source: Corgan Analysis, 2016
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Table 3-23 . General Aviation Operations Comparison
Historical Year FAA TAF 5010 OPBA NPIAS OPBA Average OPBA State Share 2016 21,841 27,690 19,500 25,584 21,765 2020 22,555 29,079 20,574 26,568 22,150 2025 23,510 30,576 21,756 27,552 22,640 2030 24,539 32,472 23,232 28,864 23,142 2035 25,654 34,782 25,017 30,504 23,654 Source: Corgan Analysis, 2016
MTJ Historical Fuel Sales
As previously discussed in the aviation trends, FAA Aerospace Forecast shows that elements of the general aviation industry are trending in different directions. Piston driven aircraft activity has been on the decline for more than ten years, even prior to the 2008 recession. Contrarily, total hours flown and active aircraft for corporate jets and turboprops have been steadily increasing over the past ten years. Corporate jets and turboprops did experience a slight decline in 2008 to 2010 and have recovered in the past five years.
A review of historical fuel sales at MTJ show that the Airport has mirrored national trends from 2001 to 2015. Jet A fuel sales grew at CAGR of 0.2 percent showing solid stability over the 15 year period. Over the near term, since 2012, Jet A has grown sharply at a CAGR of 4.39 percent. Comparatively, AvGas has declined at a CAGR 5.42 percent from 2001 to 2015. Table 3-19 and Table 3-20 present annual sales for Jet A and AvGas at MTJ since 2001.
Figure 3-19 . MTJ Historical Jet A Fuel Sales
2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 Trend 2001 – 2015 = 0.2% CAGR 400,000 200,000 0
Source: MTJ Airport Management
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-49 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Figure 3-20 . MTJ Historical AvGas Sales
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000 Trend 2001 – 2015 = ( -5.42%) CAGR 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: MTJ Airport Management
Local and Itinerant Operations Forecast Total forecast GA operations have been further categorized as Local or Itinerant. Local operations as defined by the FAA are:
• Operations performed in the local traffic pattern or within sight of an airport • Performed by aircraft departing for, or arriving from, flight in local practice areas located within a 20-mile radius of an airport • Performed by aircraft executing simulated or actual, instrument or visual approaches, or low passes at an airport (touch and go) • Itinerant operations are all other operations. Historical data from the FAA TAF indicates that annual itinerant operations at MTJ averaged approximately 55 percent of total general aviation operations from 1990 through 2015. Annual averages have stayed constant during this period even as annual operations have fluctuated, ranging from 44 to 61 percent.
In 2015, itinerant general aviation operations totaled 11,670 of 21,670 total general aviation operations, which is equal to 53.9 percent of annual operations. Given that MTJ serves a world class tourism destination that attracts visitors from across the country and around the world, it is reasonable to expect the majority of general aviation activity would continue to be itinerant operations.
The FAA TAF projects local general aviation operations to remain constant at 10,000 annual operations over the 20 year planning period. By accepting the annual activity level for local general aviation operations to remain constant throughout the planning period and applying it to the recommended general aviation operations forecast, all growth would be in the itinerant market. Table 3-24 shows the split between local and itinerant general aviation operations for the recommended general aviation
3-50 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND forecast. Annual itinerant general aviation operations are project to grow to 20,504 by 2035 and account for over 67 percent of the general aviaotin traffic at at MTJ.
Table 3-24 . Local/Itinerant Operations Splits
Itinerant GA (%) Itinerant Local GA (%) Local GA Total GA Year Operations GA Operations Operations Operations Operations
Historical 2015 11,670 53.9% 10,000 46.1% 21,670 Projected 2016 15,584 60.9% 10,000 39.1% 25,584 2020 16,568 62.4% 10,000 37.6% 26,568 2025 17,552 63.7% 10,000 36.3% 27,552 2030 18,864 65.4% 10,000 34.6% 28,864 2035 20,504 67.2% 10,000 32.8% 30,504 Source: Corgan Analysis, 2016
Military Activity Historically, the FAA TAF consistently shows 800 military operations at MTJ over the past 3 years. The TAF maintains 800 annual military operations at MTJ over the 20 year planning horizon.
Critical Aircraft Determination As previously discussed, the FAA defines a critical aircraft – or group of aircraft – as the most demanding aircraft that makes substantial use of the Airport. Federally funded projects require that critical design airplanes have at least 500 or more annual itinerant operations at the airport for an individual airplane or a family grouping of airplanes. The FAA notes that under unusual circumstances, adjustments may be made to the 500 total annual itinerant operations threshold after considering the circumstances of a particular airport.
A review of flight plan data filed by aircraft operators with the FAA – sourced from the GCR download database – identified a wide range of cooperate jets that frequent MTJ. Based on the flight plan data for calendar year 2015, MTJ cooperate jet fleet mix included Cessna Citation Mustang, Citation 2, Challenger, Hawker, LearJet 36, Gulfstream–II, Gulfstream–IV, Gulfstream 550 and Gulfstream –G650. The flight plan data showed that no single corporate jet recorded more than 500 annuals operations in calendar year 2015. However, collectively a series of aircraft with an ARC of D-II and D-III do exceed the minimum annual operation totals to be considered as the design aircraft. The existing design aircraft for general aviation is the Gulfstream-IV, with an ARC of D-II and is recommended as the existing general aviation design aircraft.
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Table 3-25 . General Aviation Design Aircraft
Current Future
Gulfstream - Gulfstream - IV Aircraft Model G650ER 110 feet 3 99 feet 9 inches Length Overall inches 77 feet 10 99 feet 7 inches Wingspan inches Height Overall 25 feet 2 inches 25 feet 8 inches Maximum Ramp Weight 74,600 103,600 Typical Approach Speed 145 knots 145 knots Approach Speed D D Category Airplane Design Group II III Source: Aircraft Manufacture
In Section 3.6 the existing and future design aircraft for commercial operations was identified as the Boeing 757-200. As shown in Table 3-26 , the existing design aircraft is a combination of the Gulfstream –IV (D-II) and Boeing 757-200 (C-IV), which equals an Airport Reference Code (ARC) of D-IV. The future design aircraft is a combination of Gulfstream – 650ER (D-III) and the Boeing 757-200 (C-IV), which equals an Airport Reference Code (ARC) of D-IV.
Table 3-26 . Combined Design Aircraft
Current Future Gulfstream - Aircraft Model Gulfstream - IV Boeing 757-200 Boeing 757-200 G650ER 155 feet 3 Length Overall 110 feet 3 inches 155 feet 3 inches 99 feet 9 inches inches 124 feet 8 Wingspan 77 feet 10 inches 124 feet 8 inches 99 feet 7 inches inches Height Overall 25 feet 2 inches 45 feet 1 inches 25 feet 8 inches 45 feet 1 inches Maximum Ramp Weight 74,600 221,000 lbs 103,600 221,000 lbs Typical Approach Speed 145 knots 137 knots 145 knots 137 knots Approach Speed D C D C Category Airplane Design Group II IV III IV Source: Aircraft Manufacturers
3-52 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND Summary of MTJ Aviation Demand Forecast MTJ is expected to experience moderate growth in aviation demand primarily driven by recent investments by the County to provide quality services that are desirable to recreational travelers – both commercial and itinerant general aviation traffic – from around the world.
Table 3-27 is a comparison of the preferred Aviation Demand Forecast with the FAA TAF. The FAA requires that aviation activity forecasts prepared must be supported by a reasonable analysis and be consistent with the TAF. The FAA has established the following criteria for determining whether or not forecasts of total operations are consistent with the TAF.
• Forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the first 5 year forecast and by less than 15 percent in the 10 year period, or • Forecasts do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project, or • Forecasts do not change the role of the airport as defined in FAA Order 5090.3, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems.
However, the FAA does provide an exception for FAA headquarters review if the five and ten year preferred aviation demand forecast does not exceed 200 based aircraft or 200,000 total annual operations, as is the case at MTJ.
Table 3-27 . TAF Comparison Table Airport Terminal Area AF/TAF % Year Forecast Forecast (TAF) Difference (AF) Passenger Enplanements Base Year 2015 102,637 99,990 2.65% Base Year + 5 yrs. 2020 110,732 101,969 8.59% Base Year + 10 yrs. 2025 119,466 104,144 14.71% Base Year + 15 yrs. 2030 128,888 106,536 20.98% Base Year + 20 yrs. 2035 139,054 109,171 27.37%
Commercial Operations Base Year 2015 3,764 5,435 -30.75% Base Year + 5 yrs. 2020 4,408 5,702 -22.69% Base Year + 10 yrs. 2025 4,633 5,987 -22.62% Base Year + 15 yrs. 2030 4,869 6,276 -22.42% Base Year + 20 yrs. 2035 5,118 6,580 -22.22%
Total Operations Base yr. 2105 26,234 27,904 -5.98% Base yr. + 5yrs. 2020 31,776 29,057 9.36% Base yr. + 10yrs. 2025 32,985 30,297 8.87% Base yr. + 15yrs. 2030 34,533 31,615 9.23% Base yr. + 20yrs. 2035 36,422 33,034 10.26% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast (2016), Boyd Group International, Corgan Analysis
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-53 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND As shown in Table 3-27 , the Preferred MTJ aviation demand forecast is consistent and within ten percent of the TAF in the first five (5) years of the forecast and lower than 15 percent in the ten (10) year period in all categories presented in the TAF.
The preferred aviation demand forecast is summarized in Table 3-28. Commercial enplanements are projected to grow from the record setting 2015 base year total of 102,637 at a CAGR of 1.53% to an annual total of 139,054 in 2035. The aviation demand forecast represents a conservative estimate of commercial passenger enplanements, while recognizing the robust economic conditions within Montrose County translated into recent record setting years of activity.
FAA Order 5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport System, notes that a general guideline in estimating annual operation is 250 OPBA for rural general aviation airports and 350 OPBA for busier general aviation airports. The MTJ historical average annual OPBA of 328 served as the basis for projections of general aviation activity. As noted throughout this document, there is evidence, that strong tourist attractions in the region draws a high percentage of itinerate traffic, which has increased in recent years at a faster rate than local traffic. This trend is expected to continue through 2035.
The recommended forecast of aviation demand detailed in this Chapter will be used in subsequent Chapters of this Master Plan for the purpose of facility planning and programming at MTJ.
3-54 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
Table 3-28 . MTJ Aviation Demand Forecast Summary 2015 - 2015 - 2015 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 Passenger Enplanements Air Carrier 102,637 110,732 119,466 128,888 139,054 1.53% 1.53% 1.53% Commuter 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 102,637 110,732 119,466 128,888 139,054 1.53% 1.53% 1.53% Operations Itinerant Air carrier 3,764 4,408 4,633 4,869 5,118 3.21% 2.10% 1.73% Commuter/air taxi 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A Total Commercial 3,764 4,408 4,633 4,869 5,118 3.21% 2.10% 1.73% Operations General aviation 11,670 15,584 17,552 18,864 20,504 5.96% 4.17% 3.25% Military 800 800 800 800 800 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Local General aviation 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Military 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL OPERATIONS 26,234 30,792 32,985 34,533 36,422 3.26% 2.32% 1.85% Peak Hour Operations 8.1 8.6 9.3 9.8 10.8 1.21% 1.39% 1.28% Cargo/mail (enplaned + 975 1,018 1,208 1,496 2,294 0.87% 2.17% 2.90% deplaned tons) Based Aircraft Single Engine (Nonjet) 56 54 54 53 53 -0.72% -0.36% -0.37% Multi Engine (Nonjet) 13 12 12 12 11 -1.59% -0.80% -0.53% Jet Engine 2 4 6 8 10 14.87% 11.61% 9.68% Helicopter 3 5 5 6 8 10.76% 5.24% 4.73% Other 4 6 7 9 11 8.45% 5.76% 5.56% TOTAL 78 81 84 88 93 0.76% 0.74% 0.81% Operational Factors 2015 2020 2025 2030 Average aircraft size
(seats) Air carrier 75.2 70.3 72.1 74 Commuter 0 0 0 0 Average enplaning load
factor Air carrier 72.80% 71.50% 71.50% 71.50% Commuter 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% GA operations per based 328 328 328 328 aircraft Source: Boyd Group International, Corgan Analysis, 2016
MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT 3-55 3 FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND
3-56 DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016