D R A F T Chapter 3: Forecast of Aviation Demand Prepared for Montrose Regional Airport May 24, 2016 CH2M HILL 9191 South Jamaica Street Englewood, CO 80112 Contents Section Page 3 Forecast of Aviation Demand .............................................................................................. 3-6 Purpose ............................................................................................................................ 3-6 Data Sources .................................................................................................................... 3-6 U.S. Aviation Industry – The Only Constant is Change .................................................... 3-7 Industry Consolidation ........................................................................................ 3-7 Cost Control and Focus on Profitability .............................................................. 3-7 Aircraft Fleet Changes ......................................................................................... 3-8 Montrose Regional Airport Service Area ......................................................................... 3-8 Demographic and Economic Characteristics ...................................................... 3-9 Montrose Economy: Tourism Driven ................................................................ 3-12 Historical Commercial Air Service at MTJ ...................................................................... 3-12 Historical Passenger Demand ........................................................................... 3-13 Historical Capacity – Departing Seats ............................................................... 3-14 Historical Airline Load Factors .......................................................................... 3-15 Current Commercial Air Service at MTJ ......................................................................... 3-16 Current O&D Passenger Geographic Distribution ............................................ 3-17 Design Aircraft for Planning Purposes .............................................................. 3-18 Current Design Aircraft ..................................................................................... 3-18 Future Design Aircraft – Commercial ................................................................ 3-19 Forecast Methodology and Approach ........................................................................... 3-20 Factors Impacting Passenger Enplanement Forecasts ..................................... 3-20 Forecast Uncertainties Specific to Montrose Regional Airport ........................ 3-21 Determination of Methodology ........................................................................ 3-21 Forecast Summary: 2016 – 2035 ...................................................................... 3-26 Enplanement Forecast Comparison to 2015 TAF Projections .......................... 3-28 Air Carrier Forecast Activity .............................................................................. 3-29 Peak Demand – Monthly and Hourly ................................................................ 3-30 Cargo Forecast .................................................................................................. 3-33 Factors Affecting General Aviation Demand ................................................................. 3-33 General Aviation Trends ................................................................................... 3-34 Unmanned Aircraft Systems ............................................................................. 3-35 Historical General Aviation Activity ............................................................................... 3-35 Previous Forecasts of Aviation Demand ........................................................................ 3-36 Future Forecast Scenarios .............................................................................................. 3-37 Forecast Assumptions ....................................................................................... 3-37 Forecast Methodologies ................................................................................... 3-37 Based Aircraft Forecast ..................................................................................... 3-38 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix .................................................................................... 3-43 General Aviation Operations Forecast .............................................................. 3-43 MTJ Historical Fuel Sales ................................................................................... 3-49 Critical Aircraft Determination ...................................................................................... 3-51 Summary of MTJ Aviation Demand Forecast ................................................................. 3-53 MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 DRAFT iii CONTENTS Tables Table 3-1. Montrose County Employment Categories ............................................................................ 3-11 Table 3-2. MTJ Traffic Seasonality Five Year Average: CY 2011 – 2015 ................................................... 3-12 Table 3-3. MTJ Historical Scheduled Air Service CY 2000 – Current ........................................................ 3-13 Table 3-4. MTJ Top 10 Domestic O&D Markets YE Q3 2015 ................................................................... 3-17 Table 3-5. MTJ Current Aircraft Specifications Fleet Mix at MTJ CY 2016 ............................................... 3-18 Table 3-6. MTJ Future Aircraft Specifications .......................................................................................... 3-19 Table 3-7: MTJ % Share of National Domestic Enplanements CY 2006 - 2015 ........................................ 3-24 Table 3-8. MTJ Enplanements 10 Year CAGR vs. CO Western Slope & NW Mountain Region CY 2006 – 2015 ............................................................................................................................. 3-25 Table 3-9. Enplanement and Operational Summary CY 2016-2035 ........................................................ 3-27 Table 3-10. Five Year Enplanement and Operations Comparison vs. TAF CY 2016-2035........................ 3-29 Table 3-11. MTJ Peak Month/Day/Hour Passengers and Operations ..................................................... 3-32 Table 3-12. Cargo Freight/Mail Forecast (Lbs.) CY 2016-2035 ................................................................ 3-33 Table 3-13. MTJ Historical Aviation Activity ............................................................................................ 3-36 Table 3-14. Previous Aviation Demand Forecasts................................................................................... 3-37 Table 3-15. Based Aircraft Trend Analysis ............................................................................................... 3-38 Table 3-16. MTJ Share of Surrounding Airport Based Aircraft ................................................................. 3-39 Table 3-17. MTJ Share of Based Aircraft in the State of Colorado .......................................................... 3-40 Table 3-18. Based Aircraft Forecast Summary ......................................................................................... 3-42 Table 3-19. Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Forecast ......................................................................................... 3-43 Table 3-20. Previous Master Plan Forecast .............................................................................................. 3-43 Table 3-21. MTJ Share of Surrounding Airport Annual Operations ......................................................... 3-45 Table 3-22. MTJ Share of Colorado GA Operations ................................................................................. 3-47 Table 3-23. General Aviation Operations Comparison ............................................................................ 3-49 Table 3-24. Local/Itinerant Operations Splits .......................................................................................... 3-51 Table 3-25. General Aviation Design Aircraft ........................................................................................... 3-52 Table 3-26. Combined Design Aircraft ..................................................................................................... 3-52 Table 3-27. TAF Comparison Table .......................................................................................................... 3-53 Table 3-28. MTJ Aviation Demand Forecast Summary ............................................................................ 3-55 iv DRAFT MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE – 2016 CONTENTS Section Page Figures Figure 3-1. Montrose Regional Airport Primary and Secondary Service Areas ......................................... 3-9 Figure 3-2. Montrose County Population Growth 2005 - 2035 ............................................................... 3-10 Figure 3-3. Montrose County Total Employment Growth 2005 - 2035 ................................................... 3-11 Figure 3-4. MTJ Five Year Enplanement Trend CY 2011 - 2015 ............................................................... 3-14 Figure 3-5. MTJ Departing Seats Five Year Trend CY 2011 - 2015 ........................................................... 3-14 Figure 3-6. MTJ Load Factor Performance Five Year Trend CY 2011 - 2015 ............................................ 3-15