CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21ST CURRENT TRENDS AS OBSERVED IN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH AND STATISTICS

Mr. Alexandre Marc, Chief Specialist, Fragility, Conflict and Violence Group

In the , conflicts have increased sharply since 2010 Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2014 120000

100000

80000

60000

40000 * 20000

0

Battle-related deaths Terrorist casualties

Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 Source: Uppsala Conflict Database and Global Database • In 2015 the number of ongoing conflicts increased to 50 compared to 41 in 2014 (Institute of Economics and Peace) 2 Battle deaths are now largely concentrated in

Source:Gates et. al. “Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2014.” (PRIO Conflict Trends, January 2016).

3 World record in since WWII Conflicts are increasingly affecting civilians

Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 Interpersonal violence and gang violence kill much more people than political violence

• Interpersonal violence exacts a high human cost

Interpersonal violence and political violence tend to be increasingly interrelated, particularly where institutions are weak and social norms have become tolerant of violence.

Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014

6 Interpersonal violence seems to be declining but remains very high in some regions

Source: Global status report on violence prevention 2014 Source: UNODC Global Study on Homicide

Gender based violence remains very high, with negative consequences for both societies and • 1 in 3 women in the world have experienced physical or — mostly by an intimate partner (World Health Organization)

• 2 in 3 victims of intimate partner/family related homicide are women ( Statistics Division, The World’s Women 2015)

• It is estimated that close to 90% of current casualties are civilians, the majority of whom are women and children, compared to a century ago when 90% of those who lost their lives were military personnel • Contextual factors, such as humanitarian crises, including conflict and post-conflict situations, may increase women’s vulnerability to violence (UN Women) Violence and conflict do not affect all regions the same way

Battle deaths over 300 from 2010-2014 Source: UCDP data

Homicide rate over 11 (per 100,000 people) Source: UNODC 2014

9 Conflicts and violence are persistent and often extremely costly

• Many countries and subnational areas now face cycles of repeated violence, weak governance, and instability. (WDR 2011)

• 90 percent of the last ’s civil occurred in countries that had already had a in the last 30 . (WDR 2011)

• The aggregate economic and financial cost of conflict in 2014 was estimated to be $14.3 billion, or 13.4% of the global (Institute for Economics and Peace)

• More than half of all states affected by ongoing conflicts are also affected by protracted armed conflicts persisting for more than 10 years (Center for Systemic Peace) Conflict In most cases crosses borders and institutional transition can increase conflict

Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014

Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 Multiple dimensions of conflict and violence

How various drivers of conflict combined to create and sustain the conditions for civil war in Ivory Coast in the The case of Côte d’Ivoire: How various drivers of conflict combined to create and sustain the conditions for civil war

INFLOW OF MIGRANTS FROM THE NORTH

ECONOMIC STAGNATION, MINORITIES RESENT LIMITED JOB CREATION, COMPETITION DOMINANCE OF BAULE YOUTH BULGE FOR POWER ON ECONOMY AND

AFTER DEATH

OF FOUNDING

PRESIDENT

HIGH LEVEL OF REGIONAL DISPARITIES; HIGH LEVEL UNCLEAR LAND RIGHTS, OF HORIZONTAL AVAILABILITY INCREASED PRESSURE ON INEQUALITIES OF NATURAL LAND RESOURCES

(,

DIAMOND, )

Key DRIVERS OF FACTORS SUSTAINING CORE REASON FOR

CONFLICT CONFLICT CONFLICT Conflict and violence have multiple dimensions

Dimensions of major conflicts between 2000-2014 30

[CELLRANGE]

25 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] Subregional/Lagging region issues [CELLRANGE] 20 Land Violent Electoral/Competition for central power 15 Migration/ movement

[CELLRANGE] Trafficking in drugs/arms Numberconflicts of 10 Resources/minerals/extractives [CELLRANGE] Identity/Horizontal inequality [CELLRANGE] Regional spillovers 5

Source: FCV CCSA analysis 0 Dimensions

• Dimensions of conflict charted across all 21st century conflicts resulting in more than 300 battle deaths per country. • A multiplicity of different drivers can come together to create a major open conflict. GDP per capita is not a strong correlate of conflict

140000

120000 [CELLRANGE]

100000

80000

60000

[CELLRANGE] 40000 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 20000 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Fragile and Conflict States Other countries

Sources: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, World Bank WDI database, WB list of Fragile Situations FY16 The poor are increasingly concentrated in countries affected by violence

90% Source: DEC Policy Research Report, 80% 2014

70%

60%

50%

40% Sharepoor of global

30%

20%

10%

0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

World Bank FCS (FY14) OECD Fragile States List Prolonged conflict keeps countries poor

• a civil war costs a medium-sized the equivalent of 30 years of GDP growth • it takes 20 years for trade levels to return to pre-war levels MESSAGE FROM NEVER THIS AGAIN !!!

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