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Conflict and Violence in the 21St Century Current Trends As Observed in Empirical Research and Statistics

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Conflict and Violence in the 21St Century Current Trends As Observed in Empirical Research and Statistics CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY CURRENT TRENDS AS OBSERVED IN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH AND STATISTICS Mr. Alexandre Marc, Chief Specialist, Fragility, Conflict and Violence World Bank Group In the 21st century, conflicts have increased sharply since 2010 Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2014 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 * 20000 0 Battle-related deaths Terrorist casualties Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 Source: Uppsala Conflict Database and Global Terrorism Database • In 2015 the number of ongoing conflicts increased to 50 compared to 41 in 2014 (Institute of Economics and Peace) 2 Battle deaths are now largely concentrated in Middle East Source:Gates et. al. “Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2014.” (PRIO Conflict Trends, January 2016). 3 World record in forced displacement since WWII Conflicts are increasingly affecting civilians Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 Interpersonal violence and gang violence kill much more people than political violence • Interpersonal violence exacts a high human cost Interpersonal violence and political violence tend to be increasingly interrelated, particularly where institutions are weak and social norms have become tolerant of violence. Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 6 Interpersonal violence seems to be declining but remains very high in some regions Source: Global status report on violence prevention 2014 Source: UNODC Global Study on Homicide Gender based violence remains very high, with negative consequences for both societies and economies • 1 in 3 women in the world have experienced physical or sexual violence— mostly by an intimate partner (World Health Organization) • 2 in 3 victims of intimate partner/family related homicide are women (United Nations Statistics Division, The World’s Women 2015) • It is estimated that close to 90% of current war casualties are civilians, the majority of whom are women and children, compared to a century ago when 90% of those who lost their lives were military personnel • Contextual factors, such as humanitarian crises, including conflict and post-conflict situations, may increase women’s vulnerability to violence (UN Women) Violence and conflict do not affect all regions the same way Battle deaths over 300 from 2010-2014 Source: UCDP data Homicide rate over 11 (per 100,000 people) Source: UNODC 2014 9 Conflicts and violence are persistent and often extremely costly • Many countries and subnational areas now face cycles of repeated violence, weak governance, and instability. (WDR 2011) • 90 percent of the last decade’s civil wars occurred in countries that had already had a civil war in the last 30 years. (WDR 2011) • The aggregate economic and financial cost of conflict in 2014 was estimated to be $14.3 billion, or 13.4% of the global economy (Institute for Economics and Peace) • More than half of all states affected by ongoing conflicts are also affected by protracted armed conflicts persisting for more than 10 years (Center for Systemic Peace) Conflict In most cases crosses borders Democratization and institutional transition can increase conflict Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 Source: Center for Systemic Peace 2014 Multiple dimensions of conflict and violence How various drivers of conflict combined to create and sustain the conditions for civil war in Ivory Coast in the 2000s The case of Côte d’Ivoire: How various drivers of conflict combined to create and sustain the conditions for civil war INFLOW OF MIGRANTS FROM THE NORTH ECONOMIC STAGNATION, MINORITIES RESENT LIMITED JOB CREATION, COMPETITION DOMINANCE OF BAULE YOUTH BULGE FOR POWER ON ECONOMY AND AFTER DEATH POLITICS OF FOUNDING PRESIDENT HIGH LEVEL OF REGIONAL DISPARITIES; HIGH LEVEL UNCLEAR LAND RIGHTS, OF HORIZONTAL AVAILABILITY INCREASED PRESSURE ON INEQUALITIES OF NATURAL LAND RESOURCES (COFFEE, DIAMOND, GOLD) Key DRIVERS OF FACTORS SUSTAINING CORE REASON FOR CONFLICT CONFLICT CONFLICT Conflict and violence have multiple dimensions Dimensions of major conflicts between 2000-2014 30 [CELLRANGE] 25 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] Subregional/Lagging region issues [CELLRANGE] 20 Land Violent ideology Electoral/Competition for central power 15 Migration/population movement [CELLRANGE] Trafficking in drugs/arms Number conflicts of 10 Resources/minerals/extractives [CELLRANGE] Identity/Horizontal inequality [CELLRANGE] Regional spillovers 5 Source: FCV CCSA analysis 0 Dimensions • Dimensions of conflict charted across all 21st century conflicts resulting in more than 300 battle deaths per country. • A multiplicity of different drivers can come together to create a major open conflict. GDP per capita is not a strong correlate of conflict 140000 120000 [CELLRANGE] 100000 80000 60000 [CELLRANGE] 40000 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 20000 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Fragile and Conflict States Other countries Sources: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, World Bank WDI database, WB list of Fragile Situations FY16 The poor are increasingly concentrated in countries affected by violence 90% Source: DEC Policy Research Report, 80% 2014 70% 60% 50% 40% Share poor of global 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 World Bank FCS (FY14) OECD Fragile States List Prolonged conflict keeps countries poor • a civil war costs a medium-sized developing country the equivalent of 30 years of GDP growth • it takes 20 years for trade levels to return to pre-war levels MESSAGE FROM CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC NEVER THIS AGAIN !!! 18 .
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