Civic Culture and Stability of Grey Zone Regimes

SUSANNE BRUNNBAUER GEORGIA AND ARMENIA BETWEEN APATHY AND REVOLUTION: CIVIC CULTURE AND STABILITY OF GREY ZONE REGIMES YEREVAN YEREVAN STATE UNIVERSITY PRESS 2021 1 UDC 32:94 Is published by the decision of the Scientific Council of the Centre for European Studies of Yerevan State University Brunnbauer Susanne Georgia and Armenia between apathy and revolution: civic culture and stability of grey zone regimes, Yerevan: YSU press, 2021, 130 p. The declaration of the ‘end of the transition paradigm’ at the dawn of the new millenni- um provoked a rethinking in transformation theory, as it challenged the dichotomy of democratic and authoritarian systems and the ‘finality’ of transformation. This study contributes to the debate on hybrid political systems, critically assessing established theoretical models of political cul-ture and stability with a view to their applicability in the post-Soviet environment. On the basis of comprehensive field research, the study compares Georgia and Armenia as most similar cases, which inherited similar legacies from their common Soviet past but showed different developments of regime persis- tence, instability and democratization processes since gaining independence and sover- eignty. While Georgia experienced ups and downs of its democratization efforts, Arme- nia was considered a stable semi-consolidated authoritarian system until the Velvet Revolution, which can be regarded as an important ‘reset’ in Armenia’s recent history. In a comparative approach this study analyses critical hues of stability in the political ‘grey zone’ while concentrating on the intermediary structure of both countries. Given its me- diating function within the political system, the intermediary sphere of civil society actors and political elites instructively reflects the (dis)connect between citizens and the state. Focusing the analysis on the intermediary sphere provides valuable insights into the dynamics of political processes and decision-making, the articulation of interests independent from the state and the formation and recruitment of elites. By taking a critical look at the very constitution of the nexus of political elites and civil society as well as interlinkages and impacts, the major finding is that the mutual influence of political culture and political structure on stability can be confirmed in both countries’ context. Thereby, the study identifies key differences in regime configurations that impact per- sistence in the political grey zone. The National Library of Armenia Cataloging-in-Publication Data. A catalog record for this book is available from the National Library of Armenia and Library of Yerevan State University. ISBN 978-5-8084-2509-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.46991/YSUPH/9785808425095 © Brunnbauer Susanne, 2021 © YSU Centre for European Studies, 2021 © YSU Press, 2021 2 Introduction The title and idea of this book was written by Mrs. Susanne Brunnbauer in June 2019 as part of her master’s thesis on “Georgia and Armenia between apathy and revolution: civic culture and stability of grey zone regimes” (supervisor: Prof. Dr. Susanne Pickel and Prof. Dr. Oliver Reisner) at the Institute of Political Science Chair of Political Science with Focus on Comparative Politics at the University Duisburg-Essen (UDE), Germany. In a comparative study of the civic culture and stability of Georgia and Armenia, it is im- possible not to take into account the history of the post-Soviet space. The disintegration, that is, the disintegration of complex politics and the economic system leads to the formation within its borders of several new independent formations, which were previously subsystem elements. Their independent functioning and development in the presence of certain conditions and nec- essary resources can lead to integration, the formation of an association with qualitatively new systemic features. Conversely, the slightest change in the conditions for the development of such actors can lead to their complete disintegration and even the so-called ‘self-elimination’. The post-Soviet space as a whole and the former republics of the USSR, Georgia and Armenia, have become part of the global world system and the European community, and in the new format of post-Soviet relations, new actors who have not previously appeared in this South Caucasus region have acquired an active role. The relevance of the topic of this comparative political study is due to the fact that the transformation processes of the new independent states have radically changed the social, economic and cultural life of peoples in the vast geopolitical space of Eurasia. The creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could not eliminate the negative consequences of the so-called civilized divorce of the post-Soviet countries. Moreover, in recent years, in the activi- ties of the CIS, the EAEU and the CSTO, an orientation towards discussions and exchange of views has been increasingly felt, and not towards solving practical issues in order to improve the quality of life and the level of safety of the peoples living in the participating countries. As a re- sult, the CIS, the EAEU and the CSTO are losing the support of both political and economic elites and citizens. This, however, does not apply to the idea and projects of European and Eurasian integration in the post-Soviet space. Evaluating the overall study of the integration processes of Armenia and Georgia, one should highlight those aspects that have so far been outside the main focus of specialists on this issue. First, there is no comprehensive assessment of the idea of integration and disintegration instruments and the main steps for their implementation in Armenia and Georgia. Secondly, the assessment of integration processes in the South Caucasus region by Western politicians and 3 scientists remains outside the field of vision of most researchers. Third, insufficient attention is paid to the interdependence between the internal political processes in the newly independent states and the changing attitude of their political elites towards integration. Fourth, the basic factors that determine the ratio of national and supranational interests, economic and political components in an integration association are not fully disclosed. The integration processes taking place in the South Caucasus region are distinguished by a variety of models and institutional forms, which are not limited to hard integration. They, like the supranational model of the European Union, have interaction mechanisms characteristic of the model of open regionalism. The combination of the principles of soft and hard integration of the Armenian and Georgian societies, which is adequate for the inappropriate conditions of regional development, gives dynamism to regional integration processes and contributes to the stabilization and sustainable development of international relations in the South Caucasus. The emergence of open regionalism was a kind of reaction to the development of integration processes during the transition from a bipolar system to a multipolar one, to the modern stage of globalization. As the process of globalization deepens, integration models will shift towards open regionalism in the South Caucasus. The transitional Armenian and Georgian societies are a phenomenon of the crisis of old management systems, economic structures, ideological attitudes and, at the same time, an environment for reforming and the emergence of new social relations. The period of transit and democratization can be characterized by the violation of the previous social contract, processes leading to an even greater property, political and cultural gap between the upper and lower stra- ta. Markers of a transitional society in Armenia and Georgia can be such different, but in fact, internally related phenomena, such as frustration of certain social groups, imperfect legislation, and mistrust of most existing institutions. Revolutionary opposition and social protest are in- herent in the societies of the South Caucasus with unsettled and constantly changing rules of the game and forms of political interaction. A factor contributing to the strengthening of the stability of the political regime is also the success of economic policy, in particular, a certain liberalization of economic relations, which resulted in the steady economic growth observed in recent years. Paradoxically, it is obvious that even in the proper situations in the political life of Georgia and Armenia, acting in the role of opposition for political parties or leaders means for the citizens of these countries to oppose their own country. The author emphasizes that Armenia and Georgia have a certain set of factors that ensure their internal political stability, as shown by the political process of recent decades. At the same time, the inability of the ruling political party to solve acute social and economic problems leads to the disappointment of the population with their governments, and society begins to support opposition political parties to carry out gradual reforms. In this regard, a significant place in the 4 theory of democratic transition is occupied by the issue of “points of no return” of social protest, upon reaching which there is a qualitative leap: social discontent of citizen’s jumps from a latent form to a form of political mobilization. Implicitly, “points of no return” can be characterized as points of a qualitative

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