115th CONGRESS Printed for the use of the 2nd Session Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe Revolution in Armenia? The Power and Prospects of the Protest Movement APRIL 26, 2018 Briefing of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe Washington: 2018 VerDate 0ct 09 2002 15:29 Oct 17, 2018 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 3191 Sfmt 3191 X:\_HS\WORK\30030.TXT NINA CSCESeal.EPS Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe 234 Ford House Office Building Washington, DC 20515 202–225–1901 [email protected] http://www.csce.gov @HelsinkiComm Legislative Branch Commissioners HOUSE SENATE CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH, NEW JERSEY ROGER WICKER, MISSISSIPPI, Co-Chairman Chairman ALCEE L. HASTINGS, FLORIDA BENJAMIN L. CARDIN. MARYLAND ROBERT B. ADERHOLT, ALABAMA JOHN BOOZMAN, ARKANSAS MICHAEL C. BURGESS, TEXAS CORY GARDNER, COLORADO STEVE COHEN, TENNESSEE MARCO RUBIO, FLORIDA RICHARD HUDSON, NORTH CAROLINA JEANNE SHAHEEN, NEW HAMPSHIRE RANDY HULTGREN, ILLINOIS THOM TILLIS, NORTH CAROLINA SHEILA JACKSON LEE, TEXAS TOM UDALL, NEW MEXICO GWEN MOORE, WISCONSIN SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, RHODE ISLAND Executive Branch Commissioners DEPARTMENT OF STATE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [II] (2) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 15:29 Oct 17, 2018 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 3193 Sfmt 3193 X:\_HS\WORK\30030.TXT NINA ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE The Helsinki process, formally titled the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, traces its origin to the signing of the Helsinki Final Act in Finland on August 1, 1975, by the leaders of 33 European countries, the United States and Canada. As of January 1, 1995, the Helsinki process was renamed the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe [OSCE]. The membership of the OSCE has expanded to 56 partici- pating States, reflecting the breakup of the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia. The OSCE Secretariat is in Vienna, Austria, where weekly meetings of the partici- pating States’ permanent representatives are held. In addition, specialized seminars and meetings are convened in various locations. Periodic consultations are held among Senior Officials, Ministers and Heads of State or Government. Although the OSCE continues to engage in standard setting in the fields of military security, economic and environmental cooperation, and human rights and humanitarian concerns, the Organization is primarily focused on initiatives designed to prevent, manage and resolve conflict within and among the participating States. The Organization deploys numerous missions and field activities located in Southeastern and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The website of the OSCE is: <www.osce.org>. ABOUT THE COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the Helsinki Commission, is a U.S. Government agency created in 1976 to monitor and encourage compliance by the participating States with their OSCE commitments, with a particular emphasis on human rights. The Commission consists of nine members from the United States Senate, nine mem- bers from the House of Representatives, and one member each from the Departments of State, Defense and Commerce. The positions of Chair and Co-Chair rotate between the Senate and House every two years, when a new Congress convenes. A professional staff assists the Commissioners in their work. In fulfilling its mandate, the Commission gathers and disseminates relevant informa- tion to the U.S. Congress and the public by convening hearings, issuing reports that reflect the views of Members of the Commission and/or its staff, and providing details about the activities of the Helsinki process and developments in OSCE participating States. The Commission also contributes to the formulation and execution of U.S. policy regarding the OSCE, including through Member and staff participation on U.S. Delega- tions to OSCE meetings. Members of the Commission have regular contact with parliamentarians, government officials, representatives of non-governmental organiza- tions, and private individuals from participating States. The website of the Commission is: <www.csce.gov>. [III] (3) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 15:29 Oct 17, 2018 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 3193 Sfmt 3194 X:\_HS\WORK\30030.TXT NINA Revolution in Armenia? The Power and Prospects of the Protest Movement APRIL 26, 2018 Page PARTICIPANTS Everett Price, Policy Advisor, Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe ............... 1 Elen Aghekyan, Independent Research Analyst .......................................................................... 3 Stephen Nix, Eurasia Regional Director, International Republican Institute .......................... 5 [IV] (4) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 15:29 Oct 17, 2018 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 3193 Sfmt 3193 X:\_HS\WORK\30030.TXT NINA Revolution in Armenia? The Power and Prospects of the Protest Movement April 26, 2018 Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe Washington, DC The briefing was held at 4:01 p.m. in Room SVC 200, Capitol Visitor Center, Wash- ington, DC, Everett Price, Policy Advisor, Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, presiding. Panelists present: Everett Price, Policy Advisor, Commission on Security and Coopera- tion in Europe; Elen Aghekyan, Independent Research Analyst; and Stephen Nix, Eurasia Regional Director, International Republican Institute. Mr. PRICE. Good afternoon. Thank you, everybody, for coming. On behalf of our chair- man, Senator Roger Wicker, and our co-chairman, Congressman Chris Smith, I would like to welcome you to this U.S. Helsinki Commission briefing on the ongoing protest move- ment in Armenia. I’m really looking forward to the conversation today since we find our- selves in the midst of a fascinating and fluid moment of transition in Armenia that almost no one could have predicted just a couple weeks ago. We decided to pull together an expert panel on short notice in light of the dizzying pace of developments in Yerevan. Con- sidering how much has transpired in recent days, allow me to say a few words to set the stage for our discussion before I turn the floor over to our briefers. April was supposed to be a month of significant transition for the Republic of Armenia, but not like this. This month, the country’s political system was slated to for- mally transition from a semi-presidential system to a parliamentary one in accordance with profound constitutional changes approved by a popular referendum in December 2015. The 2015 referendum was initiated by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who served as president since 2008 and whose final 5-year term in office ended earlier this month. Opponents of the referendum at the time argued that the constitutional changes were employed by the president to extend his time in office by assuming the post of prime minister in 2018. To allay these concerns, Sargsyan vowed then to not seek the position of prime minister at the end of his term. (1) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 15:29 Oct 17, 2018 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 3194 Sfmt 3194 X:\_HS\WORK\30030.TXT NINA Yet, as parliament prepared to meet earlier this month to elect a new head of govern- ment, it became clear the ruling party would put forward Sargsyan for the newly empow- ered vote. The country’s fractured opposition cried foul, and a protest movement emerged. On Monday, after more than week of surging nonviolent protest and acts of civil disobe- dience, and just 4 days after holding his first Cabinet meeting, Sargsyan stepped down as prime minister, ushering in an uncertain period of political transition. This is a superficial gloss on the present political moment that our panelists will flesh out and help us to better understand. My summary focuses on the over fault lines in the political dispute, but we know from experience that the energy that fuels massive popular movements is most often drawn from undercurrents of discontent that are imperceptible at the surface until they burst into the open in unpredictable ways. It strikes me as well that the political drama in Yerevan, which is in many ways a powerful one, is a personal one, too. The current contest has been framed by some as a contest between a powerful establishment, Sargsyan, and the scrappy and disheveled protest leader, Nikol Pashinyan. After the election of Sargsyan in 2008, Pashinyan was at the helm of a large-scale protest movement contesting the legitimacy of the election, an uprising that Sargsyan’s government put down with force, and pushed Pashinyan into hiding. There is an inter- esting note of symmetry to the fact the beginning to Sargsyan’s term in office is now bookended by Pashinyan leading a successful popular movement to unseat him. We have intentionally put a question mark in the title of this briefing because this outcome, Sargsyan’s resignation, raises more questions than it answers. Put simply: What happens next? What will be the outcome of early dialog between the government and pro- test leaders? Can the movement achieve more lasting reform of the entrenched power structures in Armenia’s political system? Will this collective mobilization translate into sustained political engagement? What are the regional implications of this domestic upheaval? We have an excellent duo of briefers to help us today formulate, understand, and hopefully answer these questions and others. I neglected to introduce myself. I’m Everett Price. I’m a policy advisor on the U.S. Helsinki Commission, where I cover Armenia and the rest of the Southern Caucasus. Elen Aghekyan will speak first. She is an independent researcher and former research analyst at Freedom House, where she managed Europe and Eurasia content for the organization’s Freedom in the World and Freedom of the Press surveys. She most recently authored the Armenia chapter of Freedom House’s Nations in Transit 2018 Report, which is a comprehensive, comparative, and multidimensional study of reform in the former Communist States of Europe and Eurasia.