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Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research Forum/75Th Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research Forum/75th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Summary Report Session 1: Operations...2020 Highlights and 2021-22 Possible Changes. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that 2020 was a record-breaking Atlantic season with 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes (6 major), and 1 depres- sion that did not reach tropical storm strength. It was the busiest year for NHC since 2005 and sec- ond busiest since 1990. There were 12 U.S. landfalls, 6 as hurricanes, 6 as tropical storms and 1 a tropical storm “strike”. In addition, there were 13 international landfalls (impacts in nearly every country in the Atlan- tic basin). NHC track and intensity forecasts for the Atlantic were very skillful. The NHC genesis forecasts for the Atlantic from 2018-2020 show a small low bias across most probability thresholds. For the East Pacific (EPAC), the track forecasts were very skillful, intensity FederalThe Coordinator (FC) for Meteorological Services forecasts were skillful through 60 hours, but had little and Supporting Research (OFCM) hosted the 2021 skill beyond that time, and genesis forecasts from 2018- Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research Forum 2020 are very well calibrated for all time periods and (TCORF)/75th Interdepartmental Hurricane Confer- probability thresholds. NHC issued the fewest forecasts ence (IHC) for Federal agencies, operational forecast for this area since 2010. 2020 presented a potent mix of centers, weather modelers, aerial, ocean, satellite, and challenges for NHC: record-breaking Tropical Cyclone radar observing groups, supporting research functions, (TC) activity and landfalling systems, staffing shortages, and user communities. COVID, and other factors that severely stressed the sys- tem. Outreach and training for 2021 will again be greatly There were 184 registered participants, which convened reduced/affected by COVID. virtually on March 3-5, 2021 to review 2020 hurricane season challenges, and planned operations for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center upcoming season, and to discuss research efforts in the context of operational needs. The agenda comprised a The Joint Typhoon Warning Center experienced a near combination of themed sessions and reported on the average climatological tropical cyclone year for the Working Group (WG) for Tropical Cyclone Operations Western Pacific (WPAC), Southern Hemisphere, and the and Research (TCOR) meeting held on March 2nd. A Indian Ocean. However, the impact of the storms was summary of each of these agenda elements follows. significant with 316 fatalities and $3.2 billion in dam- Slide presentations used by panelists and other partici- age related to Typhoons affecting the Koreas, flooding pants are available online. from tropical cyclones over Vietnam/Cambodia, and Super Typhoon Goni over the Philippines and Vietnam. Opening Session. Mr. David Chorney, Executive Sec- JTWC warnings for the three basins plus repackaged retary, welcomed participants, provided instructions warnings for the DOD totaled 1621. The 2020 WPAC on how the virtual meeting would be conducted, and forecast track errors had record low mean absolute error reviewed the agenda. He introduced Mr. Martin Yapur, at days 2, 4, and 5. Forecast intensity skill increased for recently appointed Deputy Director of the Interagen- days 1 and 2. JTWC expanded the use of satellite recon- cy Meteorology Coordination Office (IMCO), which naissance products but has concerns about the loss of will transition activities, previously under OFCM, into WindSat data and degraded microwave imagery refresh the Interagency Council for Advanced Meteorological rates.TC intensity change, and data exploitation were Services (ICAMS) infrastructure. Mr. Yapur summarized cited as the top two JTWC Research and Development the background and rationale for ICAMS, and the prog- priorities. ress made so far in transitioning the OFCM activities into the Committees and subordinate groups that will Aircraft Operations Center comprise the ICAMS interaction with and support for the Federal Weather Enterprise. The TCORF / IHC will The 2020 season was the first season in six years with continue to be a key annual event coordinating tropical both WP-3Ds available for most of the season. 678 cyclone support and research across the federal govern- hours were flown during the 2020 season across all ment. hurricane missions. The G-IVSP flew 82% of FY20 and 69% of FY21 allocated hours. WP-3D flew 97% of Image of Hurricane Epsilon courtesy of NOAA. FY20 and 95% of FY21 allocated hours. Funding was Central Pacific Hurricane Center recently allocated for additional FY21 reconnaissance hours. Operational limitations were related to severe The hurricane season for the central Pacific was very weather (strong winds) at the staging base and availabili- light with only two tropical cyclones. The first threat ty of trained flight directors. Aircraft Operations Center was Boris which at its peak was a tropical depression. (AOC) reconnaissance data are available at the National The second was Douglas which became a category Centers for Environmental Information website. 4 hurricane and made the closest approach to Oahu (30 miles) in modern records. The messaging focus 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron on Douglas was for lead time, continuity, and consis- tency. Peak 48-hour rainfall was 6.35 inches for Kauai In support of the 2020 NHOP, the 53rd Weather County. The RECON support to CPHC for Douglas Reconnaissance Squadron flew 146 missions with 187 was excellent with 5 mission profiles flown. For the fixes, 14 invests, 13 missed fixes, 8 late fixes, and 1 2021 season products will be added for Extreme Wind early fix for a total of 1160.8 flying hours. Challenges Warning (EWW), short-fused warning (2 hours or less) included COVID restrictions, insufficient manpower for a major hurricane eyewall landfall, and EAS/WEA for recon and equipment maintenance, aircraft and activation. Forecast zone changes will be implemented Met equipment limitations, and 4 home base hurricane in March 2021 to better align with marine hazards. evacuations. Near term projects are planned upgrades to pallets, communications, and improvements in ocean Q&A: Participants submitted questions and comments sensing, vertical profiling, and SMFR capabilities. that clarified or added to information in the presenta- tions. They also emphasized that ICAMS should include NHC Marine, Tropical Analysis and Forecast in their structure all the current OFCM groups that Branch support TCOR operations and research. Eighteen marine forecasters provided marine prod- Session 2: Research and Development Support- ucts for 10 million square miles of ocean. The world’s ing 2020-22 Operations oceans and seas are divided into 16 separate regions known as “METAREAS” with different nations having Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Over- responsibility for providing high seas marine forecasts view/Updates for those waters. The high seas forecasts are used main- ly by large transoceanic vessels but can also be used by The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) smaller vessels or those on shorter voyages. The U.S. Strategic Plan provides details on long-term HFIP goals National Weather Service (through the National Hur- (Appendix A), priorities, and strategies and its goals are ricane Center, the Ocean Prediction Center, and the Ho- aligned with the Weather Act. HFIT highlights for 2020 nolulu Weather Forecast Office) has the responsibility to include the HFIP Real-time Experiment (HREx) for provide high seas marine forecasts for METAREAS IV the Unified-Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System and XII, which cover most of the North Atlantic Ocean (UFS-HAFS), HAFS-Ocean Model (HYCOM) cou- and North Pacific Ocean. Each product is updated pling, providing guidance for NHC’s experimental 6 and every 6 hours and includes a description of winds and 7-day forecasts, and implementation of HWRF models. waves for the current time (a nowcast) and a 24- and 48- Progress was also made on improvements to guidance, hour forecast of the winds and waves, using a 20-knot products, and community outreach and participation. threshold for the wind and an 8 feet threshold for the Future directions are to align hurricane models with the seas. Positions and intensities are also given for tropical Unified Forecast System (UFS) and implement and add cyclone forecasts out to the 120-hours. Intermediate more configurations to the HAFS. hour forecasts are given for rapidly changing weather events. The High Seas products also include updated HFIP and Hurricane Supplemental Development descriptions of convection, particularly along the ITCZ. These products include marine warnings for gale, storm, Projects at the National Hurricane Center hurricane force winds, and tropical cyclone-related conditions and can also include information on reduced The NHC has work underway on HFIP projects that visibility and other marine hazards. The marine forecasts address storm surge watch/warning improvements, enable ships to avoid hazardous weather and support wind watch/warning improvements, statistical post-pro- the U.S. Coast Guard when they conduct distress oper- cessing model updates, public-facing product improve- ations. Plans are to add surface forecast graphics out to ments, and infrastructure upgrades. Their HSUP proj- seven days and weekly marine weather briefings through ects in progress include extending statistical intensity five days. models to seven days, developing 3-D visualization methods, and
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