DOCSLIB.ORG

September 2000

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
September 2000 Natural Hazards Observer - September 2000 VOLUME XXV NUMBER 1 September 2000 Table of Contents The Los Alamos Cerro Grande Fire: An Abject, Object Lesson Wildfire Web Sites The Federal Response to the Cerro Grande Fire The Natural Hazards Center's Quick Response Program Three New Quick Response Reports 2000 Session Summaries Now Available A Modest Price Increase (and Still a Bargain) Fourth Hazards Assessment Volume Due this Fall Also Available from the Second Assessment of Natural Hazards . Reflections on the American Flood Legacy Canadians Safe Guard Their Citizens ProVention Consortium Launches Newsletter UN Sets 2000 World Disaster Reduction Campaign: Disaster Reduction, Education, and Youth Washington Update ● FEMA and Heinz Center Say Coastal Erosion Will Destroy 87,000 Buildings ● FEMA Offers Best Practices in Coastal Construction ● FEMA Releases Design and Construction Guidance for Community Shelters ● Congress Finds Money for Disaster Victims EDUPLANhemisférico: The Hemispheric Action Plan for Vulnerability Reduction in the Education Sector http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/archives/2000/sept00/sept00a.html (1 of 9)11/12/2007 1:27:37 PM Natural Hazards Observer - September 2000 Contracts and Grants The Internet Pages UN-HiNet Being Updated Introducing the African American Emergency Preparedness and Information Project (EPIP) Conferences and Training Red Cross Releases "Masters of Disaster Children's Disaster Safety Curriculum New Self-Study Courses from FEMA Recent Publications An Invitation to Publish in the International Journal Natural Hazards Who We Are The Los Alamos Cerro Grande Fire: An Abject, Object Lesson --an invited comment Not Unexpected Initiating perhaps the worst fire season in the last 50 years, the Los Alamos Cerro Grande fire in New Mexico caught the nation's attention in May when over 200 homes burned because a prescribed fire got out of control. Certainly, those who made mistakes should be held accountable, but more importantly, there are significant lessons for planners and other segments of government and society to learn from this fire. The area around Los Alamos has a history of threatening wildfires. In the past 21 years, three major fires have broken out near the Los Alamos National Laboratory, which has housed radioactive materials and toxic chemicals for decades. The Cerro Grande fire should not http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/archives/2000/sept00/sept00a.html (2 of 9)11/12/2007 1:27:37 PM Natural Hazards Observer - September 2000 have come as a surprise. According to an article in Forest Magazine by Keith Easthouse (September/October 1999), the three federal agencies that manage the wooded areas surrounding the laboratory (the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Park Service) were well aware of the potential for such a devastating fire. Although officials with these agencies had expressed concern for the risks and conducted prescribed burns and thinning on their lands, their agencies never received adequate funding for fire mitigation. Further, the agencies did not coordinate efforts to reduce risks until a 1996 fire threatened the laboratory. Still, the federal government was not alone in inadequately preparing for the Cerro Grande fire. When I visited the site, local folks said the county government had lacked funding for mitigation, but more importantly, failed to recognize the seriousness of the problem or to actively search for funding. Likewise, residents and state officials felt the Department of Energy should have taken their responsibility to mitigate risks more seriously. A Population Increasingly at Risk Testifying before the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Forests and Forest Health in June 1999, Janice McDougle, Deputy Chief of the Forest Service, noted that, in addition to changes in forest conditions, increasing numbers of people are moving from urban areas to rural areas near public lands. This in turn has increased the number of structures in wildlands near national forests, making them extremely vulnerable to fires. This trend, compounded by overly dense forests and accumulation of fuels, has created a volatile situation that must be addressed. Building and Rebuilding to Prevent the Next Disaster Although the Cerro Grande fire began as a prescribed burn, this fire could have just as easily started from a lightning strike or careless campfire. Instead of concerning ourselves with how the Cerro Grande fire started, we ought to pay greater attention to reducing risks and preventing future fires in susceptible areas. The fire should be an example of why building disaster-resistant communities of the sort called for by the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Project Impact is critical, why community planning is necessary to create such communities, and why, at the same time, more--not fewer--prescribed burns and other fuel management programs are needed. Development plans should be based on sound site planning, building design and construction, and landscaping that reduces the risks of living in a forested environment. Recognizing this need, the National Fire Protection Association's Firewise Communities program and the Institute for Business and Home Safety are working to provide communities with reliable wildfire mitigation information. There are reasons some homes in the Los Alamos region burned and others did not. Too often, development plans emphasize fire trucks and sprinkler systems to deal with fire hazards. Instead, communities must address the consequences of sprawl and adopt alternative ways of developing. In the June 1995 issue of Planning magazine, William Fulton outlined some of the wildfire issues affecting California. He determined that adding fire standards to general plans and subdivision regulations is not enough to prevent devastation. What is needed, he concluded, is the political will to keep people from building in the woods. An oblique aerial photo of the Los Alamos area shows that the town is built at the base of a mountain on mesas surrounded by long, steep, forested canyons. The fire swept through the mountains and spread to various spots in the canyons. The houses that burned were in residential areas closest to the base of a forested mountain, and the greatest losses probably occurred in a newer subdivision tucked into the hills. These losses could have been reduced had the outer forested locations been avoided. Although controversial, limits to growth could have considerable potential for confining losses due to natural disasters. The city of Flagstaff and Coconino County in Arizona are proposing such growth boundaries under their new Regional Land Use and Transportation Plan. Encouraging compact development, growth boundaries, and infill, while using existing tools such as zoning, other laws and regulations, design review, and hazard mapping, could save property, and, in the future, lives. Similarly, having reconstruction plans in place for Los Alamos prior to the fire would have enhanced land-use choices during rebuilding. Unfortunately, this careful process may be adversely affected by the federal government's willingness to compensate victims quickly for their losses to allow rapid replacement of their structures. In this regard, the publication Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction, jointly published by the American Planning Association (APA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (see the Observer, Vol. XXIII, No. 6, p. 7), is an invaluable tool for planners interested in establishing plans before their communities burn. The Fundamental Need: Awareness http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/archives/2000/sept00/sept00a.html (3 of 9)11/12/2007 1:27:37 PM Natural Hazards Observer - September 2000 Planners and land-use officials in general need to become better informed and willing to address all natural hazards issues. Although the APA's Growing Smart Legislative Guidebook, published in 1996, includes a chapter on natural hazards, the January 2000 issue of Planning magazine, a special edition devoted to smart growth issues, did not mention hazards and public safety planning, nor did the March 1999 issue of APA's Zoning News, which dealt with the implications of growth area designations. Many planning professionals and local officials have not yet realized the difference between protecting the environment and protecting a population. Nor have they made the connection between limiting growth in hazardous areas and greater community protection from natural disasters. Although much can be accomplished through land-use planning, we must recognize that it can only do so much. Protecting communities has to be a shared responsibility. Public planners are directed by the community and elected officials for whom hazard mitigation planning often is not a high priority. Clearly, awareness must be increased not only among planners but also among the people they serve. Similarly, this hazard has not yet received the attention it deserves from the insurance industry. If homeowners pay less attention to wildfire mitigation because their buildings are insured or because there is no rate reduction benefit for undertaking mitigation, why should planners, governments, and other sectors of society try to make a difference? No forested community is immune from a wildfire disaster. Lightning strikes and droughts will continue to occur (if not increase), campfires will get out of control, fuel will continue to accumulate, and more and more people will move into forests and the paths of forest fires.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • A Summary of Palau's Typhoon History 1945-2013
    A Summary of Palau’s Typhoon History 1945-2013 Coral Reef Research Foundation, Palau Dec, 2014 © Coral Reef Research Foundation 2014 Suggested citation: Coral Reef Research Foundation, 2014. A Summary of Palau’s Typhoon History. Technical Report, 17pp. www.coralreefpalau.org Additions and suggestions welcome. Please email: [email protected] 2 Summary: Since 1945 Palau has had 68 recorded typhoons, tropical storms or tropical depressions come within 200 nmi of its islands or reefs. At their nearest point to Palau, 20 of these were typhoon strength with winds ≥64kts, or an average of 1 typhoon every 3 years. November and December had the highest number of significant storms; July had none over 40 kts and August had no recorded storms. Data Compilation: Storms within 200 nmi (nautical miles) of Palau were identified from the Digital Typhoon, National Institute of Informatics, Japan web site (http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon/reference/besttrack.html.en). The storm tracks and intensities were then obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) (https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/en/JTWC/). Three storm categories were used following the JTWC: Tropical Depression, winds ≤ 33 kts; Tropical Storm, winds 34-63 kts; Typhoon ≥64kts. All track data was from the JTWC archives. Tracks were plotted on Google Earth and the nearest distance to land or reef, and bearing from Palau, were measured; maximum sustained wind speed in knots (nautical miles/hr) at that point was recorded. Typhoon names were taken from the Digital Typhoon site, but typhoon numbers for the same typhoon were from the JTWC archives.
    [Show full text]
  • Maximum Wind Radius Estimated by the 50 Kt Radius: Improvement of Storm Surge Forecasting Over the Western North Pacific
    Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 705–717, 2016 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/705/2016/ doi:10.5194/nhess-16-705-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific Hiroshi Takagi and Wenjie Wu Tokyo Institute of Technology, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan Correspondence to: Hiroshi Takagi ([email protected]) Received: 8 September 2015 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 27 October 2015 Revised: 18 February 2016 – Accepted: 24 February 2016 – Published: 11 March 2016 Abstract. Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and is an important parameter in determining the intensity and Vietnam. size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estima- tion methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of 1 Introduction substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, The maximum wind radius (Rmax) is one of the predominant we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of parameters for the estimation of storm surges and is defined the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological sta- as the distance from the storm center to the region of maxi- tion network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage mum wind speed.
    [Show full text]
  • 2020 Sustainability Report
    2020 SUSTAINABILITY REPORT ENERGY FOR A BETTER TOMORROW 2020 | 2021 Recognitions Table of Contents ■ For the 15th consecutive year, Duke Energy was named to the 2020 | 2021 Recognitions . 2 Dow Jones Sustainability Index for A Message From Our CEO . 3 North America. Duke Energy is A Message From Our CSO . 5 one of only seven companies in our Duke Energy At A Glance . 7 sector to make the index. Conducting Business in the Era ■ Duke Energy was named to Fortune magazine’s “World’s Most Admired of COVID-19 . 10 Companies” list in 2021 for the fourth consecutive year. This year the Our Strategy: company ranked 7th among gas and electric utilities. Clean Energy Transformation . 12 ■ Forbes magazine included Duke Energy in its America’s Best Employers Our Value Creation Model . 13 for Women list for 2020 and its Best Employers for Diversity list Our Stakeholders and for 2020. What Matters Most . 15 ■ Forbes magazine included Duke Energy in its 2020 list for Best-In-State Our Sustainability Plan and Goals . 17 Employers in North Carolina, ranking the company 12th out of 100 Management Approach employers on the list. to Sustainability . 20 ■ Duke Energy received a perfect score for the fourth year in a row on the Environmental . 21 Human Rights Campaign Foundation’s 2021 Corporate Equality Index, Social . 40 earning inclusion on the organization’s list of Best Places to Work for LGBTQ Equality. Governance . 53 ■ Duke Energy received the 2020 AMVETS Veteran Friendly Employer of the Year Award for North Carolina, for companies with more than 1,000 employees.
    [Show full text]
  • MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
    MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloaded 10/01/21 11:55 PM UTC 3574 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 140 Level in Hurricanes
    NOVEMBER 2012 Z H A N G E T A L . 3573 Lightning Distribution and Eyewall Outbreaks in Tropical Cyclones during Landfall WENJUAN ZHANG Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China YIJUN ZHANG Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China DONG ZHENG Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China XIUJI ZHOU Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China (Manuscript received 23 November 2011, in final form 10 April 2012) ABSTRACT Cloud-to-ground lightning data and storm intensity data (winds and central pressure) for 33 northwest Pacific tropical cyclones were used to analyze lightning distributions during the period of landfall in China. Lightning activities varied enormously from storm to storm with an average flash rate over 500 km of radius from 3 to 3201 flashes per hour, and no obvious relationship between average intensity and average flash rate occurred. The maximum flash density shifted from the eyewall region (0–60 km) to outer rainbands (180–500 km) as the intensity level increased. The average ratio of flash density in the eyewall to outer 2 rainband was highest (1:0.5) for storms with the level of a tropical storm (17.2–24.4 m s 1) and lowest (1:8.6) 2 for severe typhoons (41.5–50.9 m s 1).
    [Show full text]
  • High-Precision U-Th Dating of Storm-Transported Coral Blocks on Frankland Islands, Northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia
    High-precision U-Th dating of storm-transported coral blocks on Frankland Islands, northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia En-tao Liu, Jian-xin Zhao, Tara R. Clark, Yue-xing Feng, Nicole D. Leonard, Hannah Markham, John M. Pandolfi PII: S0031-0182(14)00423-4 DOI: doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.08.017 Reference: PALAEO 6991 To appear in: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology Received date: 29 April 2014 Revised date: 14 August 2014 Accepted date: 18 August 2014 Please cite this article as: Liu, En-tao, Zhao, Jian-xin, Clark, Tara R., Feng, Yue- xing, Leonard, Nicole D., Markham, Hannah, Pandolfi, John M., High-precision U- Th dating of storm-transported coral blocks on Frankland Islands, northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (2014), doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.08.017 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT High-precision U-Th dating of storm-transported coral blocks on Frankland Islands, northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia En-tao Liua.b*1, Jian-xin Zhaob*, Tara R. Clarkb, Yue-xing Fenga,b, Nicole D. Leonardb, Hannah Markhamc, John M. Pandolfic a. Faculty of Earth Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China b.
    [Show full text]
  • Winds of Change
    Weather oxfordtimes.co.uk WINDS OF CHANGE Richard O Smith meets Storm Force author Andrew Beattie Oxford-educated Andrew Beattie been buried by sand storms. He started keeping a daily record has written a book about something The reason homes are usually more in Oxford in 1337 and continued until invisible that has shaped Britain’s expensive on the western rather than 1344 by which time he had become a landscape – literally as well as socially, eastern side of a city is due to the wind rector in Lincolnshire. Pioneering Oxford economically and metaphorically. (west to east being the predominate wind physicist Robert Hooke formalised an Storm Force describes how the flow direction of factory chimney stacks). approach to collecting metrological wind has affected these isles. Cardinal Wolsey deliberately data in his 1663 work Method for “I have always been interested in located Hampton Court to the South Making a History of Weather. meteorology and the effects of weather West of London to inhale fresh air But it was the great storm of 1703 on people and landscape,” says Beattie. rather than wafted city stink. that prompted first-hand accounts “No other aspect of the weather can And Storm Force reveals of the destructive violence contained have such a wide-ranging influence on both the windiest and least within the winds unleased on an human activity. The influence of wind windiest places in Britain. Oxford church and college. ranges from energy generation to the Oxfordshire features a lot: for “Several sheets of lead curled off the sculpting of the physical landscape starters there’s the Bicester Twister.
    [Show full text]
  • STATE.APPROVED.LCBMP2.Pdf
    LOCAL COMPREHENSIVE BEACHFRONT MANAGEMENT PLAN Page left intentionally blank Page 2 of 88 LOCAL COMPREHENSIVE BEACHFRONT MANAGEMENT PLAN Page 3 of 88 LOCAL COMPREHENSIVE BEACHFRONT MANAGEMENT PLAN TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction................................................................................................................ 9 1.1 Purpose....................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 History of 1991 Beach Management Plans................................................................. 9 1.3 Storm History............................................................................................................. 12 1.4 Description of North Myrtle Beach............................................................................ 13 1.5 Local Beach Management Issues............................................................................... 14 2.0 Inventory of Existing Conditions................................................................................. 19 2.1 General Characteristics of North Myrtle Beach......................................................... 19 2.1.1 General Land Use Pattern..................................................................................... 20 2.2 Beach Characteristics................................................................................................. 21 2.2.1 Beach Use and Safety........................................................................................... 23 2.2.2 Benefits
    [Show full text]
  • Revised List of Names for Tropical Cyclones Adopted by the Typhoon Committee for the Western North Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea
    *Revised List of Names for Tropical Cyclones Adopted by the Typhoon Committee for the Western North Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea I II III IV V Contributed by Name Name Name Name Name Cambodia Damrey Kong-rey Nakri Krovanh Sarika China Haikui Yutu Fengshen Dujuan Haima DPR Korea Kirogi Toraji Kalmaegi Mujigae Meari Hong Kong, China Kai-tak Man-yi Fung-wong Choi-wan Ma-on Japan Tembin Usagi Kammuri Koppu Tokage Lao PDR Bolaven Pabuk Phanfone Ketsana Nock-ten Macau Chanchu Wutip Vongfong Parma Muifa Malaysia Jelawat Sepat Nuri Melor Merbok Micronesia Ewiniar Fitow Sinlaku Nepartak Nanmadol Philippines Bilis Danas Hagupit Lupit Talas Rep. of Korea Kaemi Nari Changmi Mirinae Noru Thailand Prapiroon Wipha Mekkhala Nida Kulap U.S.A. Maria Francisco Higos Omais Roke Viet Nam Saomai Lekima Bavi Conson Sonca Cambodia Bopha Krosa Maysak Chanthu Nesat China Wukong Haiyan Haishen Dianmu Haitang DPR Korea Sonamu Podul Noul Mindulle Nalgae Hong Kong, China Shanshan Lingling Dolphin Lionrock Banyan Japan Yagi Kajiki Kujira Kompasu Washi Lao PDR Xangsane Faxai Chan-hom Namtheun Pakhar Macau Bebinca Peipah Linfa Malou Sanvu Malaysia Rumbia Tapah Nangka Meranti Mawar Micronesia Soulik Mitag Soudelor Fanapi Guchol Philippines Cimaron Hagibis Molave Malakas Talim Rep. of Korea Chebi Noguri Koni Megi Doksuri Thailand Durian Rammasun Morakot Chaba Khanun U.S.A. Utor Matmo Etau Aere Vicente Viet Nam Trami Halong Vamco Songda Saola List of Retired Tropical Cyclone Names 1. Matsa replaced by Pakhar 2. Nabi replaced by Doksuri 3. Longwang replaced by Haikui *39th Session of Typhoon Committee, Manila, Philippines; 4-9 December 2006.
    [Show full text]
  • Diplomatic List
    United States Department of State Diplomatic List Spring 2020 Preface This publication contains the names of the members of the diplomatic staffs of all missions and their spouses. Members of the diplomatic staff are those mission members who have diplomatic rank. These persons, with the exception of those identified by asterisks, enjoy full immunity under provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Pertinent provisions of the Convention include the following: Article 29 The person of a diplomatic agent shall be inviolable. He shall not be liable to any form of arrest or detention. The receiving State shall treat him with due respect and shall take all appropriate steps to prevent any attack on his person, freedom, or dignity. Article 31 A diplomatic agent shall enjoy immunity from the criminal jurisdiction of the receiving State. He shall also enjoy immunity from its civil and administrative jurisdiction, except in the case of: (a) a real action relating to private immovable property situated in the territory of the receiving State, unless he holds it on behalf of the sending State for the purposes of the mission; (b) an action relating to succession in which the diplomatic agent is involved as an executor, administrator, heir or legatee as a private person and not on behalf of the sending State; (c) an action relating to any professional or commercial activity exercised by the diplomatic agent in the receiving State outside of his official functions. -- A diplomatic agent’s family members are entitled to the same immunities unless they are United States Nationals. ASTERISKS (*) IDENTIFY UNITED STATES NATIONALS.
    [Show full text]
  • World Meteorological Organization
    WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION TECHNICAL DOCUMENT TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMME Report No. TCP-23 TYPHOON COMMITTEE OPERATIONAL MANUAL METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT 2008 Edition WMO/TD-No. 196 SECRETARIAT OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION - GENEVA SWITZERLAND © World Meteorological Organization 2008 N O T E The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. i CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1 - GENERAL 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Terminology used in the region 2 1.2.1 General 2 1.2.2 Classification of tropical cyclones 2 1.2.3 Tropical cyclone characteristics 2 1.2.4 Terms related to the warning and warning system 3 1.3 Meaning of terms used for regional exchange 3 1.4 Units used for regional exchange 5 1.5 Identification of tropical cyclones 6 1.6 Acronyms 6 CHAPTER 2 - OBSERVING SYSTEM AND OBSERVING PROGRAMME 7 2.1 Networks of synoptic land stations 7 2.1.1 Surface observations 7 2.1.2 Upper-air synoptic observations 7 2.2 Ship and buoy observations 8 2.3 Radar observations 8 2.4 Meteorological satellite observations 8 2.5 Aircraft observations 9 2.6 Tropical cyclone passage report 10 CHAPTER 3 - TROPICAL CYCLONE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST 11 3.1 Analysis at RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 11 3.2 Forecast at RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 16 3.3 Operational
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Storm Season Report 2021
    TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT 2021 Welcome to the Tropical Storm Season Outlook 2021, your comprehensive overview of what to expect this season in all the major basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Topics will include a look back at last year’s infamous season, the drivers that will dictate this season, a specific forecast for the global basins, and a high level look at climate change and the impact on tropical activity. All of these will be applied within the framework of the supply chain world and the unique dynamics that have and will continue to occur. Get in Front of What’s Ahead. For more information, visit everstream.ai. 2 / MAY 2021 / TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 04 2. REVIEW OF THE 2020 TROPICAL SEASON 06 Atlantic Basin 06 West Pacific Basin 08 East Pacific Basin 10 Indian Ocean Basin 12 3. 2020 TROPICAL SEASON FORECAST VERIFICATION 15 4. DRIVERS FOR 2021 16 5. THE 2021 FORECAST 19 Atlantic – Above normal risk 19 West Pacific – Normal to slightly above normal risk 21 East Pacific – Normal to slightly below normal risk 23 Indian Ocean – Normal to slightly above normal risk 25 6. SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACTS 26 7. CLIMATE CHANGE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY 29 8. CONCLUSION 32 / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 3 INTRODUCTION Tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones) are the Northern Hemisphere — Atlantic, east Pacific, west one of the most disruptive events impacting the global Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Fig. 1 provides a visualization of supply chain. The effects of an intense hurricane/typhoon these four basins. For reference, this map shows the number hitting a key hub can reverberate around the world.
    [Show full text]