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Tropical Storm Season Report 2021

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TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT 2021 Welcome to the Tropical Storm Season Outlook 2021, your comprehensive overview of what to expect this season in all the major basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Topics will include a look back at last year’s infamous season, the drivers that will dictate this season, a specific forecast for the global basins, and a high level look at climate change and the impact on tropical activity. All of these will be applied within the framework of the supply chain world and the unique dynamics that have and will continue to occur. Get in Front of What’s Ahead. For more information, visit everstream.ai. 2 / MAY 2021 / TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 04 2. REVIEW OF THE 2020 TROPICAL SEASON 06 Atlantic Basin 06 West Pacific Basin 08 East Pacific Basin 10 Indian Ocean Basin 12 3. 2020 TROPICAL SEASON FORECAST VERIFICATION 15 4. DRIVERS FOR 2021 16 5. THE 2021 FORECAST 19 Atlantic – Above normal risk 19 West Pacific – Normal to slightly above normal risk 21 East Pacific – Normal to slightly below normal risk 23 Indian Ocean – Normal to slightly above normal risk 25 6. SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACTS 26 7. CLIMATE CHANGE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY 29 8. CONCLUSION 32 / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 3 INTRODUCTION Tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones) are the Northern Hemisphere — Atlantic, east Pacific, west one of the most disruptive events impacting the global Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Fig. 1 provides a visualization of supply chain. The effects of an intense hurricane/typhoon these four basins. For reference, this map shows the number hitting a key hub can reverberate around the world. If of tropical storms over the past 41 years (1979 – 2020) at damage is serious and involves infrastructure, the impacts each ocean grid point. This is an effective way to look at the can linger for an extended period. Add this to the ongoing frequency of storms and the areas that are most susceptible COVID-19 issues and these concurrent events can disrupt to tropical systems. transportation and business operations far from where a First, we will look back and review the extraordinary 2020 specific storm makes landfall. These linked extremes — one season which had an inordinate amount of variability — health related and the other environmental — have led to extremely active in some areas and very inactive in others. supply chain disarray in many parts of the globe during the Next, we will discuss the primary drivers or variables that past year. will determine the general theme (active or inactive) of the The upcoming tropical storm season in the Northern upcoming season. As we did last year, we will provide our Hemisphere looks to be another highly eventful period. initial forecast for the season in each basin. We will do this Initial indications point to another active season in the by using the ACE metric (accumulated cyclone energy) Atlantic basin. The most significant year-on-year change which is the best way to quantify tropical cyclone activity. looks to be in the west Pacific where indications are for a Then, we will apply our forecasts to the supply chain and normal to above normal season compared to last year’s discuss upcoming risks and vulnerabilities for critical nodes quiet season. The other two basins, east Pacific and Indian and shipping lanes. Ocean, look to feature near normal activity during the Finally, while this is not a report dedicated to the impacts of upcoming season. climate change on tropical cyclone activity, we will broadly This report provides a comprehensive view of what to cover a few of the cutting-edge items in climate studies that expect for the upcoming season in all the major basins in are most pertinent to the global supply chain. FIG. 1. NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM 1979 – 2020 IN THE EAST PACIFIC, ATLANTIC, INDIAN OCEAN AND WEST PACIFIC BASINS. Source: IBTRaCS 4 / MAY 2021 / / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 5 REVIEW OF 2020 TROPICAL SEASON from 2005. In terms of ACE, 2020 registered 180.3 (see Fig. 3), ATLANTIC BASIN which is well above normal (average is 110). Last season was The 2020 tropical season was one for the record books in the not only impressive because of the sheer number of storms, Atlantic basin. With a total of 30 named storms (see Fig. 2), but also for how many of those storms traveled into the Gulf of reaching well into the Greek alphabet, 2020 set the record for Mexico and eventually the U.S. The 2020 tropical season in the the most named storms in a season, surpassing the old record Atlantic will be remembered and discussed for years to come. FIG. 2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM 2020 IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. Source: IBTRaCS. 6 / MAY 2021 / FIG. 3. HISTORICAL ACE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FROM 1979 – 2020. Source: IBTRaCS. Outside of the atmospheric numbers, the human and in at 431, although unfortunately, this number is likely far economic toll was daunting last year. Total economic higher since there were scores unaccounted for mainly in losses were estimated at nearly 52 billion (USD) with eight Central America following the devastating back-to-back storms being categorized as billion-dollar storms (storms storms (Hurricane Eta and Hurricane Iota) in November that have over 1 billion USD in damage). Fatalities came of 2020. / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 7 Not only did Goni reach Category 5 status, but the wind WEST PACIFIC BASIN speed at landfall in the Philippines was 195 mph/315 kph Unlike the Atlantic, the west Pacific basin was significantly making it the most intense landfalling tropical cyclone less active than normal in 2020. There were a combined 23 ever recorded globally. Even during a relatively inactive named storms, with only one storm (Super Typhoon Goni) season, individual storms can have major impacts and reaching Category 5 strength, which is quite uncommon. break records. FIG. 4. TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM 2020 IN THE WEST PACIFIC BASIN. Source: IBTRaCS. 8 / MAY 2021 / FIG. 5. HISTORICAL ACE IN THE WEST PACIFIC BASIN FROM 1979 – 2020. Source: IBTRaCS. For the season as a whole, the west Pacific basin recorded was the fifth lowest in recorded history since 1979. fewer named storms than the Atlantic, marking just the Additionally, the season started late and featured long fourth time since 1950 that this has occurred. In terms of stretches of no activity. While many areas had a general ACE, 2020 registered 149.9, which is well below average lull in activity, two areas that had numerous impactful (average is 298). In fact, the ACE measurement in 2020 storms were Vietnam and South Korea. / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 9 (average is 209), which is well below normal. Even more EAST PACIFIC BASIN impressive than the west Pacific ACE statistic, the east Similar to the west Pacific, the east Pacific basin also Pacific recorded the third lowest ACE value since 1979. featured significantly below normal activity in 2020. There In general, the 2020 tropical season in the east Pacific was was a total of 17 named storms and ACE only reached 80.5 highly uneventful. FIG. 6. TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM 2020 IN THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN. Source: IBTRaCS. 10 / MAY 2021 / FIG. 7. HISTORICAL ACE IN THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN FROM 1979 – 2020. Source: IBTRaCS. / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 11 devastation and disruption when it made landfall in far INDIAN OCEAN BASIN eastern India (West Bengal State). It is estimated that Finally, the Indian Ocean basin was near normal in 2020. Amphan caused the second highest amount of damage There was a total of five named storms, with a total ACE (nearly 14 billion USD) for the basin only outnumbered value of 26.6 (average is 27). What made 2020 unique in by Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis in 2008 the Indian Ocean basin was Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan (source: Reuters). The fatalities directly from Amphan (Category 5 equivalent) in May. Amphan caused significant were reported at 128. FIG. 8. TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM 2020 IN THE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. Source: IBTRaCS. 12 / MAY 2021 / FIG. 9. HISTORICAL ACE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN FROM 1979 – 2020. Source: IBTRaCS. / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 13 14 / MAY 2021 / 2020 TROPICAL SEASON FORECAST VERIFICATION A year ago (May of 2020), we issued the forecast as part of our Tropical Report for the four primary basins. The following paragraph was taken directly out of last year’s report: Our experts forecast that during the upcoming All in all, the forecast verified very well as we captured the tropical storm season, companies should expect upcoming risk (active or inactive) in each of the four basins. above normal activity in the Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico, Now, we will do the same process for the 2021 season and Caribbean, and Atlantic). In the Pacific (East Pacific forecast the risk in the four basins. First, we will analyze the and West Pacific), companies should expect below key drivers or variables as we approach the season. normal activity, while in the Indian Ocean, companies should expect near normal activity. / TROPICAL STORM SEASON REPORT / 15 DRIVERS FOR 2021 The combination of oceanic and atmospheric conditions than normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), is one of across the global tropics is critical in the genesis, intensity, the primary drivers of yielding favorable or unfavorable and frequency of tropical cyclones seasonally and sub- oceanic and atmospheric conditions across much of the seasonally. In other words, these factors help determine global tropics. Changes in this oscillation can resonate whether a season will be active or inactive. Ocean water into the Atlantic and Indian Oceans causing distinct trends temperatures help set the table for storm development or patterns in tropical cyclone activity.
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