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Durham E-Theses Durham E-Theses Recalibrating Youth Bulge Theory Saudi Arabia's Youth and the Threat to Security SAYCE, TERENCE,RICHARD How to cite: SAYCE, TERENCE,RICHARD (2016) Recalibrating Youth Bulge Theory Saudi Arabia's Youth and the Threat to Security , Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/11483/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 Abstract This thesis addresses the question of whether Saudi Arabia’s youth bulge presents a threat to domestic and international security. Youth bulge theory informs us that if countries are home to large youth populations whilst experiencing high levels of unemployment they are susceptible to civil unrest, terrorism or civil war. It is irrefutable that Saudi Arabia has a youth bulge, high unemployment and -- in spite of its perceived prosperity -- it has experienced both domestic and global terrorism, with 15 of the hijackers on September 11, 2001 coming from the Kingdom. Consequently, following 9/11 Saudi Arabia was criticized by the West for having a religious education system that turned out terrorists, an allegation it strongly refuted. Given the recent resurgence in domestic and international terrorism by young Saudi members of DAESH (Islamic State), both within Saudi Arabia and the Levant, after a decade of relative calm, there would appear to be a strong case to support the theory. However, in Arabia, things are not always as they may seem. It is argued that youth bulge theory is overly focused on civil war and needs to be recalibrated to take account of Saudi exceptionalism. Built upon a foundation of Social Movement Theory, this thesis is supported by the three pillars of youth bulge, terrorism and feminist theory; the latter because half the population has to date been ignored by the academy in the discussion on youth bulge. Drawing from Durkheim’s work on religion, education and suicide, and Habermas for his public sphere, administrative power, education and crisis in society, the theory is reinforced by exhaustive ethnographic research and data drawn from primary and secondary sources. This process to recalibrate youth bulge theory will lead us to a better understanding of Saudi youth and an explanation for why when a few young Saudis embraced terrorism, the vast majority did not. i Recalibrating Youth Bulge Theory Saudi Arabia’s Youth and the Threat to Security Terence Richard Sayce Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations Durham University School of Government and International Affairs 2015 ii Table of Contents INTRODUCTION xiii THE MAIN ARGUMENT OF THE THESIS - SAUDI ARABIA'S YOUTH BULGE xiii The Research Question xv The Five Hypotheses xv The Motivation for the Research xv The Plan of the Thesis xvi Map of Saudi Arabia xxiii CHAPTER 1 SAUDI ARABIA'S YOUTH BULGE IN A GLOBALISED WORLD 1.1. Introduction 1 1.2.1. Social Movement Theory – A Broad Foundation 6 1.2.2. Rentier State Theory 14 1.2.3. The Other Side of Protest: The Theory of Policing Social Protest 22 1.3. The Youth Bulge 26 1.3.1. Pillar I: Youth Bulge Theory 26 1.3.2. Pillar II: Theories of Terrorism 38 1.3.3. Pillar III: The Invisible Youth: Feminist Theory 52 1.4. Conclusion 57 CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 2.1. Introduction 59 2.2. Youth in the Literature 60 2.2.1. Danger in Demographics? 60 2.2.2. How to React? 62 2.2.3. The Youth Bulge: Threat or Opportunity? 65 2.2.4. Dissident Views 68 2.2.5. An Issue of Focus 69 2.2.6. A Researcher's View 71 2.3. Terrorism in the Literature 73 2.3.1. A Brief Introduction 73 2.3.2. Methodological Strategy to Terminology 74 2.3.3. Homeland Terrorism: Clouded by Time 76 2.3.4. From Al-Khobar to Al-Qaeda and Beyond 77 2.4. Females in the Literature 83 2.4.1. Oppression: Myth or Reality? 83 2.4.2. An Unlikely Champion 86 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY AND METHOD 3.1 Methodology 94 3.1.1. Definitions and Meaning 94 3.1.2. Durkheim and The Nature of Society 95 3.1.3. Habermas and the Public Sphere 97 3.1.4. Durkheim: Methodology and Religion 98 3.1.5. Habermas: Religion, Education and Terrorism 100 3.2. Method 102 3.2.1. Methodological Skirmishing or Academic War? 102 3.2.2. Flexibility of Method 103 3.2.3. A Question of Ethics, Risk and Trust 104 3.2.4. Ethical Applications: Approval and Refusal 106 3.2.5. Alternative Methods: A Quantitative Approach 107 ii 3.3. Conclusion 108 CHAPTER 4 SAUDI ARABIA'S YOUTH BULGE - FROM PROTEST TO TERRORISM 4.1. Introduction 109 4.2. Action and Reaction 110 4.2.1. The Middle Way: A Difficult Path to Tread 110 4.2.2. Incremental Change 111 4.2.3. Resistance and Resistance to Change 112 4.3. Security in Times of Uncertainty 115 4.3.1. Security and Uncertainty in Earlier Times 115 4.3.2. Exploring the Links: Jihad and the Threat to Security 123 4.3.3. Understanding Jihadists 124 4.3.4. Failed Strategy - Bitten by the Hand that Fed It 126 4.3.5. Jihad and the Ulama 127 4.3.6. The Jihadi Objectives and Government Reaction 129 4.3.7. The Afghan Jihad during the Cold War 130 4.3.8. Discouraging Jihad – A Philosophical Reversal 137 CHAPTER 5 TERROR AND TERRORISTS 5.1 Introduction 140 5.2. Historical Roots and the Muslim Brotherhood 140 5.3. Terror and Martyrdom 144 5.4. Terrorists Abroad: Profiles 145 5.4.1. The 9/11 Crew 145 5.5. Probable Cause 151 5.5.1. Conspiracy Theories 151 iii 5.5.2. Fear of Modernity 152 5.5.3. Relative Deprivation 153 5.5.4. Regional Strategy 153 5.6. Saudi Arabian Homeland Terrorists: Profiles 156 5.7. The Post-9/11 Phase 156 5.7.1. Front-Line Terrorists 156 5.7.2. Wanted: The Matlubin - Logisticians of Terror 165 5.8. The DAESH Phase 167 5.8.1. Pan-Islamism: A Calling for a New Generation of Holy Warriors 167 5.8.2 Profile of a Potential Jahadi 169 5.8.3. The DAESH Jihadi Backlash 170 CHAPTER 6 SAUDI ARABIA'S DISPUTED ROLE IN RADICALIZATION 6.1. Introduction 171 6.2. The Saudi Education System: An Assault from All Sides 172 6.2.1. A Matter of Terminology 173 6.2.2. A Letter from America 174 6.2.3. A Letter to the West 175 6.2.4. Defending Islamic Curricula from External Attack 176 6.2.5. A Sense of Injustice - An Appeal for God to Defend the Umma 177 6.2.6. The Best Form of Defence 178 6.3. The Palestinian/Jewish Issue 179 6.3.1. It's Impact on the Youth Bulge and Jihad 179 6.3.2. Lingering Resentment 181 6.4. The Call for Reform 182 6.4.1. Internal Pressure and Plans for Change 182 6.4.2. Addressing Economic Change 183 iv 6.5. Reform and Resistance 185 6.5.1. The National Plan 185 6.6. Circling the Wagons 186 6.6.1. Achievements as a Defence Strategy 186 6.6.2. The Coming Storm: Towards the Near Enemy 187 6.7. Divided Opinions, Conflicting Responses 188 6.7.1. Tug of War 188 6.7.2. If You Can't Change the People - Change the People 189 6.8. Thoughts from the Front Line 190 6.8.1. The Educators' Views 190 6.8.2. Slavery's Legacy 191 6.8.3. Fitness for Purpose 193 6.8.4. Freedom of Thought 194 6.9. Recovery Strategies 195 6.9.1. Polite Refusal 195 6.9.2. Quantity v Quality 196 6.10. Strategic Intent v Operational Reality 197 6.10.1. Corruption: Our Main Enemy 197 6.11. The Leadership Factor 199 6.11.1. A New King: Times of Uncertainty 199 6.11.2. Changes at Court 200 CHAPTER 7 EDUCATING SAUDI ARABIA'S YOUTH BULGE: A CONTESTED FIELD 7.1 Introduction 203 7.2. The Danger of Idle Hands 204 7.3. The Saudi Youth Bulge: The Invisible Half 206 7.3.1. Education Culture and Fundamentalism 206 v 7.3.2. Educational Change Confronts Conservative Opposition 209 7.3.3. Mecca 1979: A Blueprint for Regression 211 7.4. The Saudi Response to the Youth Bulge Challenge 213 7.4.1. The Plan 213 7.4.2. The Planned Objectives for Education and Subsequent Employment 215 7.4.3. Saudi Islamic Education for the 21st Century: A Blueprint for 218 EmploymEmployment or a Lost Generation? 7.5. Discipline: The Lack of It and Its Impact on Society 220 7.5.1. General Case Studies 220 7.5.2.
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