Taking Superintelligence Seriously: Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers
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Robin Hanson Statement on Teaching
Robin Hanson Statement on Teaching Long ago I was one of the top teaching assistants at the University of Chicago physics department. I had to learn to translate this ability into teaching economics here. For example, I learned that students are far more willing to believe physicists about physics, than to believe economists about economics. To help overcome this skepticism, I run some classroom experiments in my microeconomics courses. These experiments give students a good initial hook for the concepts of marginal value and cost, and they show that standard theory predicts experimental outcomes reasonably well. One physics practice that translates well to economics is “back of the envelope” analysis. For example, I ask why poets are paid less than romance novelists, and teachers are paid less than garbage men (hint: note supply side effects). And I ask whether a subsidy or tax would best correct for law mower externalities (hint: neighbors can negotiate easily). While many undergraduates prefer teachers to give them the one true answer on policy questions, I try to avoid taking sides. In class discussions, I ask students to take and defend policy positions, and then I defend any undefended major positions, and mention any unmentioned major criticisms of these positions. The important thing is for students to understand the sorts of arguments that an economist would respect. I am big on normative analysis. I review how normative economics differs from normative analysis elsewhere, and the basic types of market failure. I cover counter- arguments that most teachers don’t cover, such as consistency checks (e.g., if this were the failure then we should also see that) and minimal interventions (e.g., this milder alternative should work just as well). -
FROM LONGITUDE to ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS of PUBLIC POLICY in SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbau
FROM LONGITUDE TO ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS OF PUBLIC POLICY IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbaumer* I. INTRODUCTION On a foggy October night in 1707, a fleet of Royal Navy warships ran aground on the Isles of Scilly, some twenty miles southwest of England.1 Believing themselves to be safely west of any navigational hazards, two thousand sailors discovered too late that they had fatally misjudged their position.2 Although the search for an accurate method to determine longitude had bedeviled Europe for several centuries, the “sudden loss of so many lives, so many ships, and so much honor all at once” elevated the discovery of a solution to a top national priority in England.3 In 1714, Parliament issued the Longitude Act,4 promising as much as £20,0005 for a “Practicable and Useful” method of determining longitude at sea; fifty-nine years later, clockmaker John Harrison claimed the prize.6 Nearly three centuries after the fleet’s tragic demise, another accident, also fatal but far removed from longitude’s terrestrial reach, struck a nation deeply. Just four days after its crew observed a moment’s silence in memory of the Challenger astronauts, the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated upon reentry, killing all on board.7 Although * J.D., University of Illinois College of Law, 2006; M.B.A., University of Illinois College of Business, 2006; B.A., Economics, B.A., History, Lake Forest College, 2001. 1. DAVA SOBEL, LONGITUDE: THE TRUE STORY OF A LONE GENIUS WHO SOLVED THE GREATEST SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM OF HIS TIME 12 (1995). -
Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report
Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report AUTHOR: 11/18 MARINELLA CAPRIATI, DPHIL 1 — Founders Pledge Animal Welfare Executive Summary By supporting increased use of evidence in the governments of low- and middle-income countries, donors can dramatically increase their impact on the lives of people living in poverty. This report explores how focusing on evidence-based policy provides an opportunity for leverage, and presents the most promising organisation we identified in this area. A high-risk/high-return opportunity for leverage In the 2013 report ‘The State of the Poor’, the World Bank reported that, as of 2010, roughly 83% of people in extreme poverty lived in countries classified as ‘lower-middle income’ or below. By far the most resources spent on tackling poverty come from local governments. American think tank the Brookings Institution found that, in 2011, $2.3 trillion of the $2.8 trillion spent on financing development came from domestic government revenues in the countries affected. There are often large differences in the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of social programs— the amount of good done per dollar spent can vary significantly across programs. Employing evidence allows us to identify the most cost-effective social programs. This is useful information for donors choosing which charity to support, but also for governments choosing which programs to implement, and how. This suggests that employing philanthropic funding to improve the effectiveness of policymaking in low- and middle-income countries is likely to constitute an exceptional opportunity for leverage: by supporting the production and use of evidence in low- and middle-income countries, donors can potentially enable policy makers to implement more effective policies, thereby reaching many more people than direct interventions. -
An Evolutionary Heuristic for Human Enhancement
18 TheWisdomofNature: An Evolutionary Heuristic for Human Enhancement Nick Bostrom and Anders Sandberg∗ Abstract Human beings are a marvel of evolved complexity. Such systems can be difficult to enhance. When we manipulate complex evolved systems, which are poorly understood, our interventions often fail or backfire. It can appear as if there is a ‘‘wisdom of nature’’ which we ignore at our peril. Sometimes the belief in nature’s wisdom—and corresponding doubts about the prudence of tampering with nature, especially human nature—manifest as diffusely moral objections against enhancement. Such objections may be expressed as intuitions about the superiority of the natural or the troublesomeness of hubris, or as an evaluative bias in favor of the status quo. This chapter explores the extent to which such prudence-derived anti-enhancement sentiments are justified. We develop a heuristic, inspired by the field of evolutionary medicine, for identifying promising human enhancement interventions. The heuristic incorporates the grains of truth contained in ‘‘nature knows best’’ attitudes while providing criteria for the special cases where we have reason to believe that it is feasible for us to improve on nature. 1.Introduction 1.1. The wisdom of nature, and the special problem of enhancement We marvel at the complexity of the human organism, how its various parts have evolved to solve intricate problems: the eye to collect and pre-process ∗ Oxford Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy and James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University. Forthcoming in Enhancing Humans, ed. Julian Savulescu and Nick Bostrom (Oxford: Oxford University Press) 376 visual information, the immune system to fight infection and cancer, the lungs to oxygenate the blood. -
Heidegger, Personhood and Technology
Comparative Philosophy Volume 2, No. 2 (2011): 23-49 Open Access / ISSN 2151-6014 www.comparativephilosophy.org THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY: HEIDEGGER, PERSONHOOD AND TECHNOLOGY MAHON O‟BRIEN ABSTRACT: This paper argues that a number of entrenched posthumanist positions are seriously flawed as a result of their dependence on a technical interpretive approach that creates more problems than it solves. During the course of our discussion we consider in particular the question of personhood. After all, until we can determine what it means to be a person we cannot really discuss what it means to improve a person. What kinds of enhancements would even constitute improvements? This in turn leads to an examination of the technical model of analysis and the recurring tendency to approach notions like personhood using this technical model. In looking to sketch a Heideggerian account of personhood, we are reaffirming what we take to be a Platonic skepticism concerning technical models of inquiry when it comes to certain subjects. Finally we examine the question as to whether the posthumanist looks to apply technology‟s benefits in ways that we have reflectively determined to be useful or desirable or whether it is technology itself (or to speak as Heidegger would – the “essence” of technology) which prompts many posthumanists to rely on an excessively reductionist view of the human being. Keywords: Heidegger, posthumanism, technology, personhood, temporality A significant number of Posthumanists1 advocate the techno-scientific enhancement of various human cognitive and physical capacities. Recent trends in posthumanist theory have witnessed the collective emergence, in particular, of a series of analytically oriented philosophers as part of the Future of Humanity Institute at O‟BRIEN, MAHON: IRCHSS Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Philosophy, University College Dublin, Ireland. -
Cognitive Biases Nn Discussing Cognitive Biases with Colleagues and Pupils
The RSA: an enlightenment organisation committed to finding innovative practical solutions to today’s social challenges. Through its ideas, research and 27,000-strong Fellowship it seeks to understand and enhance human capability so we can close the gap between today’s reality and people’s hopes for a better world. EVERYONE STARTS WITH AN ‘A’ Applying behavioural insight to narrow the socioeconomic attainment gap in education NATHALIE SPENCER, JONATHAN ROWSON, LOUISE BAMFIELD MARCH 2014 8 John Adam Street London WC2N 6EZ +44 (0) 20 7930 5115 Registered as a charity in England and Wales IN COOPERATION WITH THE no. 212424 VODAFONE FOUNDATION GERMANY Copyright © RSA 2014 www.thersa.org www.thersa.org For use in conjunction with Everyone Starts with an “A” 3 ways to use behavioural insight in the classroom By Spencer, Rowson, www.theRSA.org Bamfield (2014), available www.vodafone-stiftung.de A guide for teachers and school leaders at: www.thersa.org/startswitha www.lehrerdialog.net n Praising pupils for effort instead of intelligence to help instil the Whether you and your pupils believe that academic idea that effort is key and intelligence is not a fixed trait. For ability is an innate trait (a ‘fixed mindset’) or can be example, try “great, you kept practicing” instead of “great, you’re strengthened through effort and practice like a muscle really clever”. (a ‘growth mindset’) affects learning, resilience to n Becoming the lead learner. Educators can shape mindset setbacks, and performance. Mindset through modelling it for the pupils. The way that you (and parents) give feedback to Think about ability like a muscle Try: n Giving a “not yet” grade instead of a “fail” to set the expectation pupils can reinforce or attenuate a given mindset. -
Transcript of the Highlights of Elon Musk's
Powered by What do electric cars have in common with life on Mars? One man — Elon Musk. This multitalented inventor founded SpaceX, a company that develops and manufactures space vehicles, and Tesla Motors, which produces 100% electricity-powered luxury roadsters. How does one person balance diverse interests and manage successful endeavors in space technology, sustainable energy and the Internet? From his early days teaching himself to program computers, learn how Elon Musk has worked to improve the quality of life for everyone through technology. Powered by Elon Musk - www.OnInnovation.com In Thomas Edison’s Menlo Park complex, the machine shop served as a bridge between two worlds. One was a world of practicality — advancing the creation of Edison’s most commercially successful inventions. The other, a world of experimentation — exploring what was possible. A similar integration of experiment and practicality exists in Hawthorne, California, at a company known as SpaceX. Its business is developing rockets that place commercial satellites in orbit. But SpaceX has broader ambitions: creating technologically astounding rockets that, at some point in the future, could carry manned missions to Mars. At the helm of SpaceX is, an individual who came to prominence in the creation of PayPal . who is Chairman and CEO of the electric sports car manufacturer Tesla Motors . and who has a passion for doing things others only dream about. Bottom:The second floor of Thomas Edison’s Menlo Park Laboratory (lower right) in Greenfield Village served as the center of the experimental process. New ideas and solutions were developed and tested here. Edison inventions and patent models (left) were displayed in the laboratory as a reminder of Edison’s ingenuity. -
Between Ape and Artilect Createspace V2
Between Ape and Artilect Conversations with Pioneers of Artificial General Intelligence and Other Transformative Technologies Interviews Conducted and Edited by Ben Goertzel This work is offered under the following license terms: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC-BY-NC-ND-3.0) See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ for details Copyright © 2013 Ben Goertzel All rights reserved. ISBN: ISBN-13: “Man is a rope stretched between the animal and the Superman – a rope over an abyss.” -- Friedrich Nietzsche, Thus Spake Zarathustra Table&of&Contents& Introduction ........................................................................................................ 7! Itamar Arel: AGI via Deep Learning ................................................................. 11! Pei Wang: What Do You Mean by “AI”? .......................................................... 23! Joscha Bach: Understanding the Mind ........................................................... 39! Hugo DeGaris: Will There be Cyborgs? .......................................................... 51! DeGaris Interviews Goertzel: Seeking the Sputnik of AGI .............................. 61! Linas Vepstas: AGI, Open Source and Our Economic Future ........................ 89! Joel Pitt: The Benefits of Open Source for AGI ............................................ 101! Randal Koene: Substrate-Independent Minds .............................................. 107! João Pedro de Magalhães: Ending Aging .................................................... -
Challenges to the Omohundro—Bostrom Framework for AI Motivations
Challenges to the Omohundro—Bostrom framework for AI motivations Olle Häggström1 Abstract Purpose. This paper contributes to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence (AI) breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro—Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals. Does that theory, along with its predictions for what a superintelligent AI would be motivated to do, hold water? Design/methodology/approach. The standard tools of systematic reasoning and analytic philosophy are used to probe possible weaknesses of Omohundro—Bostrom theory from four different directions: self-referential contradictions, Tegmark’s physics challenge, moral realism, and the messy case of human motivations. Findings. The two cornerstones of Omohundro—Bostrom theory – the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis – are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. These criticisms are however far from conclusive: while they do suggest that a reasonable amount of caution and epistemic humility is attached to predictions derived from the theory, further work will be needed to clarify its scope and to put it on more rigorous foundations. Originality/value. The practical value of being able to predict AI goals and motivations under various circumstances cannot be overstated: the future of humanity may depend on it. Currently the only framework available for making such predictions is Omohundro—Bostrom theory, and the value of the present paper is to demonstrate its tentative nature and the need for further scrutiny. 1. Introduction Any serious discussion of the long-term future of humanity needs to take into account the possible influence of radical new technologies, or risk turning out irrelevant and missing all the action due to implicit and unwarranted assumptions about technological status quo. -
1 This Is a Pre-Production Postprint of the Manuscript Published in Final Form As Emily K. Crandall, Rachel H. Brown, and John M
Magicians of the Twenty-first Century: Enchantment, Domination, and the Politics of Work in Silicon Valley Item Type Article Authors Crandall, Emily K.; Brown, Rachel H.; McMahon, John Citation Crandall, Emily K., Rachel H. Brown, and John McMahon. 2021. “Magicians of the Twenty-First Century: Enchantment, Domination, and the Politics of Work in Silicon Valley.” Theory & Event 24(3): 841–73. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/797952 (July 28, 2021). DOI 10.1353/tae.2021.0045 Publisher Project Muse Download date 27/09/2021 11:51:24 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12648/1921 This is a pre-production postprint of the manuscript published in final form as Emily K. Crandall, Rachel H. Brown, and John McMahon, “Magicians of the Twenty-first Century: Enchantment, Domination, and the Politics of Work in Silicon Valley,” Theory & Event 24 (3): 841-873. Magicians of the Twenty-first Century: Enchantment, Domination, and the Politics of Work in Silicon Valley Emily K. Crandall, Rachel H. Brown, John McMahon Abstract What is the political theorist to make of self-characterizations of Silicon Valley as the beacon of civilization-saving innovation? Through an analysis of “tech bro” masculinity and the closely related discourses of tech icons Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, we argue that undergirding Silicon Valley’s technological utopia is an exploitative work ethic revamped for the industry's innovative ethos. On the one hand, Silicon Valley hypothetically offers a creative response to what Max Weber describes as the disenchantment of the modern world. Simultaneously, it depoliticizes the actual work necessary for these dreams to be realized, mystifying its modes of domination. -
Global Catastrophic Risks Survey
GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS SURVEY (2008) Technical Report 2008/1 Published by Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom At the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17‐20 July, 2008) an informal survey was circulated among participants, asking them to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. This report summarizes the main results. The median extinction risk estimates were: Risk At least 1 million At least 1 billion Human extinction dead dead Number killed by 25% 10% 5% molecular nanotech weapons. Total killed by 10% 5% 5% superintelligent AI. Total killed in all 98% 30% 4% wars (including civil wars). Number killed in 30% 10% 2% the single biggest engineered pandemic. Total killed in all 30% 10% 1% nuclear wars. Number killed in 5% 1% 0.5% the single biggest nanotech accident. Number killed in 60% 5% 0.05% the single biggest natural pandemic. Total killed in all 15% 1% 0.03% acts of nuclear terrorism. Overall risk of n/a n/a 19% extinction prior to 2100 These results should be taken with a grain of salt. Non‐responses have been omitted, although some might represent a statement of zero probability rather than no opinion. 1 There are likely to be many cognitive biases that affect the result, such as unpacking bias and the availability heuristic‒‐well as old‐fashioned optimism and pessimism. In appendix A the results are plotted with individual response distributions visible. Other Risks The list of risks was not intended to be inclusive of all the biggest risks. -
The Time for a National Study on AI Is NOW
The Time For a National Study On AI is NOW Subscribe Past Issues Translate RSS View this email in your browser "I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I were to guess at what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that. With artificial intelligence, we are summoning the demon." Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla Motors & SpaceX ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE STUDY: AI TODAY, AI TOMORROW We are following up on our last message about a proposed National Study on Artificial Intelligence. We very much appreciate the responses and encouragement we have received, and welcome input and questions from any League and/or its members on this subject. http://mailchi.mp/35a449e1979f/the-time-for-a-national-study-on-ai-is-now?e=[UNIQID][12/20/2017 6:29:08 PM] The Time For a National Study On AI is NOW We believe that the pace of development of AI and the implications of its advancement make this an extremely timely subject. AI is becoming an important part of our society - from medical uses to transportation to banking to national defense. Putting off this study will put us behind in the progress being made in AI. We again request that your League consider supporting this study at your program planning meeting. The reason to propose this study now is because there are currently no positions that address many of the issues that fall under the umbrella of this relatively new and powerful technology. For several years now private groups and even countries (like Russia, China and Korea) have made it a priority to develop mechanical brains/computers that can function intelligently http://mailchi.mp/35a449e1979f/the-time-for-a-national-study-on-ai-is-now?e=[UNIQID][12/20/2017 6:29:08 PM] The Time For a National Study On AI is NOW and command robots or other machines to perform some task.