Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations Graduate Program in International Studies Fall 2015 Energy as a Factor for Turkish - Russian Rapprochement Saltuk Bugra Karahan Old Dominion University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the International and Area Studies Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Karahan, Saltuk B.. "Energy as a Factor for Turkish - Russian Rapprochement" (2015). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/v56e-r481 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/5 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ENERGY AS A FACTOR FOR TURKISH-RUSSIAN RAPPROCHEMENT by Saltuk Buğra Karahan B.S., August 1995, Turkish Army Academy M.S., September 2000, Naval Postgraduate School A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY December 2015 Approved by: _____________________ Steve A. Yetiv (Director) _____________________ Austin Jersild (Member) _____________________ Frances Hassencahl (Member) ABSTRACT ENERGY AS A FACTOR FOR TURKISH-RUSSIAN RAPPROCHEMENT Saltuk Buğra Karahan Old Dominion University, 2015 Director: Steve A. Yetiv This dissertation started with a simple question: What was the main source of Turkish-Russian rapprochement seen generally after the end of the Cold War, specifically within the last 15 years (2001-2015)? A review of the literature on the subject revealed three explanations for Turkish-Russian rapprochement: (1) Perception of the U.S. as a threat in the Black Sea and Caucasus region, (2) Deterioration of Turkey’s relations with the West, and (3) Turkey’s need for energy. Thus came the main question for this work: To what extent does Turkey’s need for energy play a role in Turkish-Russian rapprochement? Although each of the explanations are analyzed in detail as variables in this study, the focus is on energy, primarily from a Turkish foreign policy perspective. Once the variables were explored with their respective influence in Turkish- Russian relations, they were further tested on the foreign policy choices of Turkey in two specific regions of interest for Turkey: the Middle East and the South Caucasus. In the case studies, with the consideration that each country’s specific conditions played a role in its relations with Turkey, energy was found to be a significant factor. The findings from the case studies further supported the role of energy beyond any other factor in the making of Turkish foreign policy, and thus also support the main argument that Turkey’s need for energy has served as the main factor for Turkish-Russian rapprochement. iii © Copyright, 2015, by Saltuk Buğra Karahan, All Rights Reserved. iv This thesis is dedicated to my father Faruk Karahan. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr. Steve A. Yetiv for the continuous support of my Ph.D. study and related research, for his patience, motivation, and immense knowledge. His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my Ph.D. study. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee: Dr. Austin Jersild and Dr. Fran Hassencahl for their insightful comments and encouragement, but also for the valuable questions which motivated me to widen my research from various perspectives. My sincere thanks also goes to Dr. Karp, Dr. Serfaty and Dr. Earnest whom I had the chance to meet in GPIS, and who enlightened and broadened my view and thought process on global affairs during my time in Old Dominion University. I thank my fellow PhD students who helped me throughout this dissertation with various forms of help from the discussions in determining and refining my topic to the final editing phase. In particular, I am grateful to my fellow Turkish friends in GPIS for enlightening me the first glance of research, for supporting me in my time in Afghanistan and for the support in the finalization of this dissertation. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family (my parents, my wife, my daughter, my brother, my sister and their families) and all my friends for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this dissertation and my life in general. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ x Chapter I. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND OF RELATIONS ...................................................................... 1 TURKEY’S EVOLVING FOREIGN POLICY AFTER THE COLD WAR ....... 3 TURKISH–RUSSIAN RELATIONS IN THE POST COLD WAR SETTING ... 5 HISTORY AND NATURE OF RAPPROCHEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND TURKEY ..................................................................................................... 6 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................ 8 THREE VARIABLES FOR RAPPROCHEMENT ............................................ 12 LITERATURE REVIEW: HOW THIS DISSERTATION WILL CONTRIBUTE ............................................................................................................................. 21 II. TURKISH - RUSSIAN RAPPROCHEMENT ......................................................... 26 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF TURKISH-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ...... 26 APPROACH TO DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY RELATED POLITICAL ISSUES ................................................................................................................ 27 HIGH LEVEL BUREAUCRATIC DIALOGUE ................................................ 34 AREAS OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION: TURKISH–RUSSIAN RAPPROCHEMENT IN ECONOMICS ............................................................. 37 A GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE AREAS OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION ................................................................................................. 43 THE INDICATORS OF TURKISH–RUSSIAN RELATIONS IN TURKISH MEDIA ................................................................................................................ 48 III. LITERATURE REVIEW AND THREE VARIABLES FOR RAPPROCHEMENT ................................................................................................................................... 49 THREE EXPLANATIONS FOR RAPPROCHEMENT .................................... 49 EXPLANATION 1: U.S. AS A THREAT IN THE REGION ............................ 49 EXPLANATION 2: TURKEY’S DETERIORATING RELATIONS WITH THE WEST (U.S. AND THE EU) ............................................................................... 54 EXPLANATION 3: TURKEY’S NEED FOR ENERGY ................................... 59 IV. DETERIORATION OF TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH THE WEST ................ 63 CONSTRUCTIVIST THEORY .......................................................................... 64 vii Page RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. ........................................................................... 70 EU ACCESSION PROCESS .............................................................................. 73 FROM A HOBBESIAN TO A KANTIAN WORLD ......................................... 79 PUBLIC OPINION AND TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY ................................ 79 THE RUSSIAN DIMENSION ............................................................................ 80 OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE DETERIORATION OF RELATIONS WITH THE WEST .............................................................................................. 83 V. COMMON PERCEPTION OF THE U.S. AS A THREAT IN THE CAUCASUS AND THE BLACK SEA REGION .......................................................................... 85 THE REALIST ARGUMENT ............................................................................ 85 STEPHEN WALT AND BALANCE OF THREAT ........................................... 87 A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE REGION ...... 88 INDICATORS OF POST COLD WAR THREAT PERCEPTION .................... 89 COLOR REVOLUTIONS AND THE THREAT PERCEPTION IN THE CAUCASUS ........................................................................................................ 91 THREAT PERCEPTION IN THE BLACK SEA AND RESPONSES TO THE U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION ................................... 91 RESPONSES TO THE INVASION OF IRAQ ................................................... 93 OVERALL THREAT PERCEPTION AS AN EXPLANATION ....................... 94 VI. TURKEY’S INCREASING NEED FOR ENERGY ................................................ 96 LIBERALISM AS A MAINSTREAM THEORY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ....................................................................................................... 96 TURKEY’S ENERGY OUTLOOK ...................................................................