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Automotive UNDERWEIGHT “March-Ing” Downhill on MCO ↓ by Wan Mustaqim Bin Wan Ab Aziz L [email protected]

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Automotive UNDERWEIGHT “March-Ing” Downhill on MCO ↓ by Wan Mustaqim Bin Wan Ab Aziz L Wanmustaqim@Kenanga.Com.My Sector Update 30 April 2020 Automotive UNDERWEIGHT “March-ing” Downhill on MCO ↓ By Wan Mustaqim Bin Wan Ab Aziz l [email protected] Given the worse-than-expected impact of the extended MCO and sharp slowing of the economy, we downgrade our sector call to UNDERWEIGHT (from NEUTRAL) with a lower 2020 TIV target units of 420k (- 31% YoY) from 560k (-7% YoY), mindful that the 2QCY20 is a lost quarter. With this downgrade, we will revise our company calls and TP in the upcoming reports. According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), TIV for March 2020 registered sales of 22,478 units (-44% MoM, -59% YoY). Both MoM and YoY sales growth skidded downhill due to the movement control order (MCO) which started on 18th March 2020. 3MCY20 reported TIV of 106,428 units (-26%), forming 25% of our 2020 renewed sales target, with national marques (63%) expected to continue surpassing non-national marques (37%) driven mainly by Proton’s robust sales growth (+19% YoY) and supported by Perodua (-26% YoY) to cushion the impact. There were no sales expected for April 2020 as the MCO was extended until 12th May 2020 with showrooms closed across the country. March 2020 registered sales of 22,478 units (-44% MoM, -59% YoY). Both MoM and YoY sales growth skidded downhill due to the movement control order (MCO) which started on 18th March 2020. Taking a detailed look at the passenger vehicles segment (-45% MoM, -60% YoY), both MoM and YoY performances tracked the overall unit sales trend on the above-mentioned reasons. Honda (+87% MoM, -62% YoY) registered the only positive MoM growth on ‘3onus’ March Special promo combining a “Thank You Bonus” with March rebates and a RM500 petrol card or cash option with total cash savings of up to RM10,000 with 2019 and 2020 models available, with better deals for the former, naturally. For cars made in 2019, the total savings start at RM4,000 for the Honda HR-V and RM4,500 for the CR-V. The Jazz hatchback gets a RM5,000 shave while its B-segment sedan sister City gets RM6,000 off. The Odyssey MPV, a CBU import, also gets RM6,000 cash-back. Proton (-67% MoM, -47% YoY) sales plunged YoY from a high base of maiden sales of Proton X70 CKD. The sales of Proton marques were supported by the face-lifted Proton Saga, Iriz, and Persona (32,400 units Proton X70 delivered since CBU launch, with 805 units sold in March at 25% of sales). This was followed by, Mazda (-53% MoM, -48% YoY), with increased delivery for face-lifted CX-5 and all-new CX-8 which was earlier held back by pricing approval issues. Perodua (-54% MoM, -63% YoY) was cushioned by stronger delivery of its best-selling face-lifted Bezza (RM35K–RM49K) which was launched in early-January 2020 (2020 Perodua Bezza, has an order tally of 15k units, which include 8k units of converted orders for the previous models). Toyota’s (-25% MoM, -55% YoY) sales growth was contributed by the all- new Toyota Vios, all-new Toyota Yaris, and Toyota Hilux, which comprised 74% of UMW Toyota sales. On the other hand, Nissan (- 67% MoM, -83% YoY) fared the worst due to dearth of all-new model launches. No sales expected for April 2020 as MCO was extended until 12th May 2020. All the marques’ showrooms, vehicle productions and deliveries are temporarily closed, halted and delayed for the period of 18th March till 12th May 2020 with a possibility of extension depending on the outcome. For now, only service centres are allowed to operate. Some automakers took this chance for periodic maintenance of their automotive plants, such as UMW. If there is no extension, we expect a slight recoveries in delivery of new models after May 2020, (probably in the 2H 2020 after the fear inflicted by Covid-19 subsides), including the face-lifted Perodua Bezza, all-new Perodua ARUZ (entry-level SUV segment), Honda HR-V facelift (includes Hybrid), all-new Toyota Vios, all-new Toyota Yaris, all-new Proton X70 CKD (with a marginal price reduction for all model ranges), face-lifted Proton Persona, Iriz, and Saga (X70 unique features), face-lifted CX-5, all-new Mazda CX-8, all-new Mazda CX-30 (launched on 15th January 2020), all-new Honda Civic 2020, and all-new Accord 2020 (launched on 26th February 2020). Note that, manufacturer’s warranty on UMWT and Perodua’s vehicles will not be affected if they are unable to conduct vehicle maintenance according to the scheduled intervals as a result of the MCO. We believe that other manufacturers will also follow suit with similar policies. Downgrade to UNDERWEIGHT with a lower TIV target of 420k (-31% YoY). Given the worse-than-expected impact of the extended MCO and sharp slowing of the economy, we downgrade our sector call to UNDERWEIGHT (from NEUTRAL) with a lower 2020 TIV target units of 420k (-31% YoY) from 560k (-7% YoY), mindful that the 2QCY20 is a lost quarter. With this downgrade, we will revise our company calls and TP in the upcoming reports. This is based on the following factors; closing of showroom during MCO and cautious consumer spending in 1HCY20 on high-value discretionary spending such as vehicles, imported goods and overseas travels. There could be some relieve in 2HCY20 by exciting new launches, especially from the non-nationals, better incentives program under NAP 2020, and positive impact from BNM cut in the overnight policy rate (OPR) and pre-emptive measures to assist those who might be financially challenged by Covid-19 impact. Our economic research team views that the nationwide movement control order (MCO) to contain the outbreak will adversely impact the economy in the short term. This has led to showrooms, vehicle productions and deliveries to be temporarily closed, halted and delayed, respectively, across all marques. Going forward, the full impact would depend on the outcome of containment measures and whether movement restriction would be extended. PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 1 of 6 Automotive Sector Update Sector Update 30 April 2020 TIV Market Share Movement Market Position Marques 3M20 3M19 Sales Comment Share 1st Perodua 42% 42% ◄► -26% Driven by the all-new Perodua Myvi, and the all-new Perodua Bezza Higher delivery of the all-new Proton X70 CKD, and also supported by 2nd Proton 20% 13% ▲ 19% the existing face-lifted line-ups Consumers held back purchases, expecting new models (tentatively all- 3rd Honda 10% 15% ▼ -50% new Honda City 2020) The all-new Toyota Vios, all-new Toyota Yaris, and Toyota Hilux, which 4th Toyota 10% 10% ◄► -24% comprised 74% of UMW Toyota sales 5th Nissan 3% 4% ▼ -47% Lack of new volume-driven model launches Renew Interest for face-lifted CX-5 and all-new CX-8 which showed 6th Mazda 3% 2% ▲ -18% increased delivery starting December 2019 Outstanding sales from Perodua, and boosted by a surge in Proton National Marques 63% 55% ▲ sales. Lack of volume-driven launches, and losing market share to local Non-national Marques 37% 45% ▼ carmakers Source: MAA, Kenanga Research March 2020 sales for passenger and commercial vehicles according to top marques Marques(units) Mar-20 Mar-19 Feb-20 % m-o-m % y-o-y YTD 2020 YTD 2019 % y-o-y Passenger Perodua 8,601 23,286 18,895 -54% -63% 44,977 60,659 -26% Proton 3,277 6,136 9,974 -67% -47% 21,757 18,281 19% Honda 3,281 8,677 1,759 87% -62% 11,100 22,190 -50% Toyota 2,117 4,712 2,838 -25% -55% 7,573 10,659 -29% Nissan 260 1,574 789 -67% -83% 2,136 4,009 -47% Mazda 521 1,000 1,100 -53% -48% 2,703 3,240 -17% Others 2,203 4,716 1,347 64% -53% 6,764 12,052 -44% Total 20,260 50,101 36,702 -45% -60% 97,010 131,090 -26% Commercial Toyota 662 1,187 1,151 -42% -44% 2,842 3,063 -7% Isuzu 431 783 625 -31% -45% 1,570 1,904 -18% Nissan 71 476 256 -72% -85% 611 1,157 -47% Mitsubishi 322 591 597 -46% -46% 1,487 1,517 -2% Hino 250 608 301 -17% -59% 845 1,359 -38% Mazda - 10 2 -100% -100% 20 71 -72% Others 482 1,020 769 -37% -53% 2,043 2,878 -29% Total 2,218 4,675 3,701 -40% -53% 9,418 11,949 -21% TIV 22,478 54,776 40,403 -44% -59% 106,428 143,039 -26% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Total Industry Volume from March 2015 to March 2020 Units 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 Nov-16 Aug-17 Nov-17 Aug-18 Nov-18 Aug-19 Nov-19 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 Passenger cars Commercial vehicles Source: MAA, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 2 of 6 Automotive Sector Update Sector Update 30 April 2020 Market share of top marques (Passenger) in March 2020 Market share of top non-national marques (Passenger) Others Others 23% Mazda 11% 3% Nissan 1% Perodua Honda 43% 39% Mazda Toyota 6% 10% Hyundai 2% Volkswagen 2% Nissan 3% Toyota Honda Proton 25% 16% 16% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Market share of 3M20 (Passenger and Commercial) Market share of 3M19 (Passenger and Commercial) Others Others Mazda 12% 14% 3% Mazda Nissan 2% 3% Perodua Nissan Perodua 42% 4% 42% Toyota 10% Toyota 10% Honda 10% Honda 15% Proton Proton 20% 13% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research Market share of top marques (Commercial), March 2020 Others 22% Toyota 30% Mazda 0% Hino 11% Mitsubishi Isuzu 15% Nissan 19% 3% Source: MAA, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 3 of 6 Automotive Sector Update Sector Update 30 April 2020 New Launches 2019/2020/2021 Mazda CX-8 (CKD) –13th November 2019 Face-lifted Perodua Bezza (RM34.5k-RM49.8k)-8th Jan 2020 2019 Face-lifted Honda Civic – 26th Feb 2020 Proton X70 CKD (c.RM95k-123k)-12TH Feb 2020 Mazda CX-30 (CBU) – 15th January 2020 All-New Honda City 1.0 Turbo (CKD) – 2HCY20 All-New Nissan Almera 1.0 Turbo (CKD) – 2HCY2020 All-New Perodua D55L/Raize(CKD) – 2HCY20 All-New Proton X50 (CKD) – 2HCY20 All-New Perodua D27A MPV/ Alza (CKD) – 2021 Source: Various Sources PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 4 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 30 April 2020 Peer Comparison (UNDER REVIEW in the upcoming reports) Core Earnings Net Div Name Market Shariah Revenue Growth PER (x) - Core Earnings PBV (x) ROE (%) Target Last Price Current Growth Yld (%) Cap Complia Price Rating (RM) FYE 1-Yr.
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