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1973 Variations of Hurricane Heat Potential in the Philippine Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

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1973 Variations of Hurricane Heat Potential in the Philippine Sea and the Gulf of Mexico 1973 VARIATIONS OF HURRICANE HEAT POTENTIAL IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO Paul Dennis Shuman NPS-58LR74031 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS 1973 VARIATIONS OF HURRICANE HEAT POTENTIAL IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND THE GULP 1 OF MEXICO by Paul Dennis Shuman March 1974 Thesis Advisor: D. F. LeiDDer Prepared for: Office of Naval Research NASA-Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Code 400P and Code 481 Zack H. Byrns, Code TF6 Arlington, VA 22217 Houston, TX 77058 AppAovzd fan. public neJLiLCUbz.; dUtAAJbution wnLbnittd. T160853 DUDLEY KiMUX LIBRARY NAVAL l-OSTGRADUATE SCHOOL iviONTEREY. CALIFORNIA 93940 1973 Variations of Hurricane Heat Potential in the Philippine Sea and the Gulf of Mexico by Paul Dennis Shuman Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1965 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OCEANOGRAPHY from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 197^ 7%esis a. i DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE Si MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California Rear Admiral Mason Freeman Jack R. Borsting Superintendent Provost This thesis is prepared in conjunction with research supported in part by Office of Naval Research under Project Order No. PO-0121 and NASA-Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center under Project Order No. T-4650B. Reproduction of all or part of this report is authorized. Released as a Technical Report by: ABSTRACT The 1973 summer growth of hurricane heat potential (HHP) and its relation to tropical cyclones was studied in the Philippine Sea and the Gulf of Mexico on a monthly basis. BT information was processed through the Fleet Numerical Weather Central CDC 6500 computer to output maps of HHP, which were hand contoured. Inadequate data coverage and questionable BT observations resulted in monthly maps of varying validity and areal extent. p HHP values peaked near 35,000 cal/cm -column in the Gulf p of Mexico and 40,000 cal/cm -column in the Philippine Sea in the months of August and September, the months of highest tropical storm activity. In the Gulf of Mexico the 1973 HHP maximum-minimum values compared well with the HHP values obtained in August 1965- 1968 by Leipper and Volgenau [1972]. HHP values from the Philippine Sea were in close agree- ment with the atlas values computed by Heffernan [1972]. 2 Maximum values for 1973 were slightly (5000 cal/cm ) higher. Some evidence was found correlating rises in HHP with increases in typhoon maximum wind speed. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 9 A. LITERATURE REVIEW 9 B. OBJECTIVES 15 II. APPROACH 16 A. AREAS AND EXPECTED RESULTS 16 B. DATA USE 16 III. PRESENTATION OF DATA 18 A. SOURCES 18 1. General 18 2. Addition of Classified Data 18 3. 1973 Storm Tracks and Intensities 20 B. PROCESSING 20 1. Computer Processing 20 2. HHP Value Checks 22 3. Production of Philippine Sea and Gulf of Mexico Maps 27 C. PROJECT OSTROC 28 IV. RESULTS 32 A. GENERAL FEATURES 32 B. GULF OF MEXICO 35 1. Monthly Maps 35 a. Sequential monthly development 35 b. Seasonal changes 38 2. Storm Activity 45 a. Hurricane Brenda 45 b. Tropical storm Delia 49 3. Comparison of Storm Tracks to the HHP Fields of Volgenau 50 C. PHILIPPINE SEA 59 1. Monthly Maps 59 a. Sequential monthly development 59 b. Seasonal changes 65 2. Storm Activity 79 a. Effect of HHP on Tropical Storms 79 b. Effect of Tropical Storms on HHP 82 V. CONCLUSIONS 86 VI. RECOMMENDATIONS 89 LIST OF REFERENCES 90 APPENDIX A: COMPUTER PROGRAM 92 APPENDIX B: PROJECT OSTROC LETTER 105 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 109 FORM DD 1473 112 LIST OF FIGURES 1. Schematic Comparison of Two Vertical Temperature Distributions [Jensen 1970] 11 2. Monthly Variation in the Average Number of Typhoons [Gray 1970] 14 3. Hourly BT Profiles and HHPs for Ship KBNA 25 4. Philippine Sea BT Profiles Illustrating Source of Low HHP Errors 26 5. July 1973 BT Observations and Project OSTroC Sample Positions 30 6. August 1973 BT Observations and Project OSTroC Sample Positions 31 7. Comparison of Gulf of Mexico and Philippine Sea 1973 BTs Obtained from HHP Maximum Centers — 34 8. May, 1973 Gulf of Mexico HHP 36 9. June, 1973 Gulf of Mexico HHP 37 10. August, 1973 Gulf of Mexico HHP 39 11. Composite Map of Monthly Movements of p 1973 15,000 cal/cm HHP Isoline in Gulf of Mexico 41 12. Comparison of Two Gulf of Mexico BTs - Within Loop Current (B) ; Outside Loop Current (A) 42 13. BTs Illustrating Seasonal Change in HHP Due to Surface Heating 44 14. BT Profiles Prior to (A); and During (B) Hurricane Brenda 47 15. Composite of August 1967 HHP in Gulf of Mexico [Volgenau 1970] and 1967 Storm Tracks 53 16. Composite of August 1965 HHP in Gulf of Mexico [Volgenau 1970] and 1965 Storm Tracks 55 17. Composite of August 1966 HHP in Gulf of Mexico [Volgenau 1970] and 1966 Storm Tracks 56 18. Composite of August 1968 HHP in Gulf of Mexico [Volgenau 1970] and 1968 Storm Tracks 58 19. 1-10 May, 1973 Philippine Sea HHP 6l 20. 1-10 June, 1973 Philippine Sea HHP 62 21. 1-10 July, 1973 Philippine Sea HHP 63 22. 1-10 August, 1973 Philippine Sea HHP 64 23. 1-10 September, 1973 Philippine Sea HHP 66 24. Composite Map of 1973 Monthly Movement of 25,000 cal/cm2 HHP Isoline in Philippine Sea 68 25. Philippine Sea May Mean HHP 70 26. Philippine Sea June Mean HHP 71 27. Philippine Sea July Mean HHP 72 28. Philippine Sea August Mean HHP 73 29. Philippine Sea September Mean HHP 74 30. 1-10 May and 1-10 June HHP Difference Map 75 31. 1-10 June and 1-10 July HHP Difference Map 76 32. 1-10 July and 1-10 August HHP Difference Map 77 33. 1-10 August and' 1-10 September HHP Difference Map 78 34. Correlation of Maximum Surface Wind Speed Changes to Changes in HHP During Typhoon Billie 81 35. Correlation of Maximum Surface Wind Speed Changes to Changes in HHP During Typhoon Iris — 83 36. Comparison of Three BT f s, Ships A and B Taken Before and Ship C Taken After Storm Passages Over the Ocean Area 84 37. HHP Program Flow Chart 92 38. Sample Output of Single BT Observation 93 LIST OF TABLES 1. Data Field Expansion by Inclusion of Classified Reports 19 2. Yearly Number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Appearing in the Gulf of Mexico, 1941-1971 46 . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my sincere appreciation to my advisor, Dr. Dale F. Leipper, for his assistance, continual guidance, and generous contributions of time during this study. My appreciation is also extended to the Environmental Prediction Research Facility, particularly to Mr. Kevin Rabe for his development of the computer programs used. I thank the Climatology Division of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central for providing the BT data used in this study; appreciation is expressed to the Data Processing Division of Fleet Numerical Weather Central for the use of their computer facilities I. INTRODUCTION A. LITERATURE REVIEW The importance of the ocean regime influence on tropical storm activity has long been suspected, but the exact nature of the interrelationships between the sea and tropical storms remains largely unknown. As early as 26 years ago Palmen [19^8] stated that the sea surface temperature must exceed 26°C in order for a hurricane to develop. Direct relationships between the sea surface temperature field and a hurricane's track and intensity were investigated. Fisher [1958] published evidence that hurricane tracks are biased towards zones of warmest waters, and that the storms weaken in passing over cool water areas. Perlroth [1962,1967,1968] also supported the conclusion that hurricanes tend to intensify over warm waters and weaken over cool waters. However he strongly emphasized that the transfer of energy between the ocean and a tropical cyclone was dependent upon the thermal structure of the entire surface layers and not just upon the sea surface temperature. Whitaker [1967] first utilized the concept of hurricane heat potential (HHP), defining it as the heat content of the water column above 26°C. Hurricane heat potential is computed through the equation: Q = pC ATAZ , where: p ; J p = density (gm/cm ); Cp = specific heat at constant pressure (cal/gm/degree) AT = temperature difference, (°C) calculated as the average amount by which the water temperature value exceeds 26°C for a unit depth increment AZ = depth increment (cm). While actually a sensible heat measurement (heat p available in a cm -column of water) , HHP is proportional to the area between the 26°C isotherm and a temperature sounding or profile drawn on temperature-depth coordinates. HHP is not necessarily proportional to sea surface temperature alone, but it is determined by the detailed thermal structure. Figure (1) from Jensen [1970] illustrates how two locations can have identical surface temperatures, but may differ markedly in HHP. Many studies which seek to establish a relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricanes are pertinent, and it is likely that both parameters, sea surface temperature and HHP, significantly affect hurricane behavior. Sea surface temperature acts as an initial influence on a hurricane. Energy transfer from the sea to a storm which takes place by evaporation and conduction is related to the sea-air temperature difference both as a direct influence and as an indirect influence through boundary stability. Thus the value of sea surface temperature is very important, and the initial value felt by a hurricane more or less determines the initial energy input from the sea surface.
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