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The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilient Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate

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The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilient Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilient Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilient Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate December 15, 2013 Author: Gwyn Myer Editors: Gwen Griffith, Toby Thaler, Alyx Perry, Todd Crossett, and Ray Rasker Prepared in Cooperation with: George McKinley, SOFRC Executive Director Ken Wearstler, USFS Climate Change Coordinator Kerry Metlen, The Nature Conservancy Forest Ecologist Model Forest Policy Program i Collaborators and others who helped provide information and insight on this plan include, but are not limited to: ii Foreword The Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative (SOFRC), the Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP) and the Rogue River-Siskiyou Forest Service (RRSFS) have a shared vision to enhance the resiliency of our communities and forests. In 2013, the Collaborative took the leadership role to engage in the Climate Solution’s University (CSU) Plan Development Program created by the Model Forest Policy Program in partnership with the Cumberland River Compact. The goal of CSU is to empower rural, underserved communities to become leaders in climate resilience using a cost effective distance learning program. This climate action plan for the Rogue Basin is the result of a year of community team effort, bringing in an array of stakeholders and expertise, building partnerships, extensive information gathering, critical thinking, and engaged planning. The result is a localized, actionable plan that the community can support and implement in the coming years. The outcome will be a community that has strengthened capacity to be resilient to the inevitable impacts of climate change; a community with awareness, shared vision, and partnerships enabling it to withstand the impacts of climate change upon the natural resources, economy, and community. Acknowledgements Climate Solutions University would not have been possible without the major funding of The Kresge Foundation and other funders, which allowed us to develop the in-depth curriculum and provide grants for local community participation. We also gratefully acknowledge the Model Forest Policy Program and the Rogue- River Siskiyou Forest Service for their generous support. The team that leads the CSU program includes: Nancy Gilliam, Gwen Griffith, Todd Crossett, Toby Thaler, Margaret Hall, Jeff Morris, Ray Rasker, Vanitha Sivarajan, Alyx Perry, Josh Dye, and Mike Johnson. A special thanks to staff and community members from Norton Bay, Alaska; Santa Fe, New Mexico; Marquette County, Michigan; and the Upper Delaware River Basin (NJ/NY/PA) for their collaboration and feedback, and many thanks to those organizations shown above for their support and expertise. Cover photo: Gwyn Myer Suggested citation: Myer, G. 2013. The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilient Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate. Thaler, T., Griffith, G., Perry, A., Crossett, T., Rasker, R. (Eds). Model Forest Policy Program in association with the Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative, the Cumberland River Compact and Headwaters Economics; Sagle, ID. December, 2013. Available for download from: www.mfpp.org Date of publication: December, 2013 © 2013 Model Forest Policy Program iii Table of Contents List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ x Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 4 An Introduction to the Rogue Basin ..................................................................................................... 4 SOFRC and the Planning Team Process ............................................................................................... 7 Climate Overview ................................................................................................................................. 9 Economics and the Environment ............................................................................................................ 13 Ecosystem Services and the Economy ................................................................................................ 14 The Economy of the Rogue Basin ...................................................................................................... 17 Risks to the Economy ......................................................................................................................... 22 Agriculture ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Risks to Public Health and Emergency Services ............................................................................. 25 Manufacturing, Retail and Service Sectors ..................................................................................... 27 Tourism and Recreation .................................................................................................................. 28 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Forest Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 29 Assessment Process............................................................................................................................. 29 Current Conditions and Trends ........................................................................................................... 30 Forest History .................................................................................................................................. 34 Forests and Carbon Flux ..................................................................................................................... 41 Forest Impact Findings........................................................................................................................ 42 Ecological ........................................................................................................................................ 45 Policy and Practices ............................................................................................................................ 48 Land Ownership .............................................................................................................................. 48 Land Use .......................................................................................................................................... 49 Resource Governance ...................................................................................................................... 51 Economics and Forestry ...................................................................................................................... 56 Potential Forest Solutions and Strategies for Climate Resilience ....................................................... 62 iv Water Assessment ................................................................................................................................... 66 Assessment Process............................................................................................................................. 66 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 67 Watershed History, Current Conditions and Trends ........................................................................... 68 Water Supply ................................................................................................................................... 70 Water Quality .................................................................................................................................. 78 Risks in a Changing Climate ............................................................................................................... 85 Ecological Vulnerabilities ............................................................................................................... 85 Policy and Practice Vulnerabilities ................................................................................................. 89 Economic Vulnerabilities of Water Resources to Climate Change ................................................ 89 Potential Water Solutions for Climate Resilience............................................................................... 90 Analysis and Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 94 Climate Adaptation Action Plan ............................................................................................................. 99 Plan Implementation ............................................................................................................................. 121 Anticipated Outcomes .........................................................................................................................
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