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THE UNIVERSITY of CALGARY Avalanche Prediction for Persistent Snow Slabs by James Bruce Jamieson a DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO

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THE UNIVERSITY of CALGARY Avalanche Prediction for Persistent Snow Slabs by James Bruce Jamieson a DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Avalanche Prediction for Persistent Snow Slabs by James Bruce Jamieson A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING CALGARY, ALBERTA November, 1995 James Bruce Jamieson 1995 ABSTRACT Two field tests of snow slab stability, the shear frame test and the rutschblock test, were studied at avalanche forecasting areas in British Columbia and Alberta during the winters of 1992-93 to 1994-95. Field work focused on persistent weak snowpack layers consisting of surface hoar or faceted crystals that are the failure planes for most fatal slab avalanche accidents in Canada. The shear frame test was refined through field and finite element studies. Effects of different frame designs were identified. Shear strength measurements were shown to decrease as the distance between the frame and the weak layer decreased. Field studies of the effect of loading rate and shear frame area on shear strength confirmed previous studies. Using different shear frame operators did not affect the resulting strength measurements provided the operators maintained consistent technique. One particular shape of fracture surface was associated with significantly higher strength measurements. The strength measurements from the first two tests proved to be more variable than measurements from subsequent tests on the same weak layer. Shear frame stability indices for natural avalanches and for skier-triggered dry slab avalanches were refined by incorporating an adjustment for normal load that depended on microstructure of the weak layer. The stability index for skier triggering was further refined by adjusting for the distance the skis penetrate the snow surface. Skier stability indices based on shear frames tests at both avalanche slopes and safe study sites were correlated with skier-triggered dry slab avalanches. When compared with other forecasting variables, the skier-stability index based on study site tests ranked first or second in predictive value. Closely spaced rutschblocks on nine avalanche slopes were used to identify snowpack and terrain factors that affect rutschblock results. The frequency of skier-triggered avalanches for common rutschblock scores in the avalanche start zones was determined and shown to be similar to a Swiss study in a different snowpack. For a given rutschblock score, persistent slabs were triggered more frequently than non-persistent slabs. v Limitations of shear frame stability indices and rutschblock tests related to slope inclination and terrain were identified. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am indebted to Colin Johnston for the advice and discussions that guided this investigation and for reviewing the chapters of this dissertation thoroughly and quickly. For financial support for the entire research project, I am grateful to Canada’s Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing (MWHS), Canadian Mountain Holidays (CMH), and members of the BC Helicopter and Snowcat Skiing Operators' Association. For their commitment to the research project and willingness to sort out the inevitable difficulties, my thanks to Mike Wiegele and Bob Sayer from Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing, to Mark Kingsbury, Walter Bruns, Colani Bezzola, Rob Rohn and Bruce Howatt from Canadian Mountain Holidays, to Clair Israelson, Tim Auger, Marc Ledwidge, Gerry Israelson, Dave Skjönsberg, Bruce McMahon and Terry Willis from the Canadian Parks Service, and to Jack Bennetto, John Tweedy, Peter Weir and Gordon Bonwick from the BC Ministry of Transportation and Highways. For their expertise and field work at various times during the recent winters, I am grateful to Leanne Allison, Peter Ambler, Roger Atkins, Ken Black, James Blench, Jeff Bodnarchuk, Alex Brunet, Andrew Bullock, Steve Chambers, Peter Clarkson, Sam Colbeck, Aaron Cooperman, Alan Evenchick, Jamie Fennell, Sylvia Forest, Michelle Gagnon, Will Geary, Jeff Goodrich, Sue Gould, Brian Gould, Jim Gudjonson, Todd Guyn, Reg Hawryluk, Mike Henderson, Larry Hergot, Jim Haberl, Rob Hemming, Karsten Heuers, Jill Hughes, Gerry Israelson, Dena Jansen, John Kelly, Troy Kirwan, Karl Klassen, Marc Ledwidge, Garth Lemke, Janet Lohmann, Kevin Marr, Greg McAuley, Rod McGowan, Tony Moore, Al McDonald, Bruce McMahon, Derek Peterson, Cathy Ross, Ken Schroeder, Lisa Palmer, Simon Parboosingh, Lisa Richardson, Peter Schaerer, John Schleiss, Mark Shubin, Bert Skrypnyk, Dave Smith, Alex Taylor, Ty Trand, Julie Timmins, John Tweedy, Scott Ward, Rupert Wedgewood, George Weetman, Barry Widas, Terry Willis, Adrian Wilson, Percy Woods, Chris Worobets, Kobi Wyss, and Linda Zurkirchen. My apologies to anyone I may have omitted. vii My thanks for helpful discussions on field work, the mountain snowpack and avalanches to Sam Colbeck, Bert Davis, Paul Föhn, Jill Hughes, Clair Israelson, Gerry Israelson, Dave McClung, Ron Perla, Peter Schaerer, Chris Stethem, Martin Schneebeli, Jürg Schweizer and the guides at Canadian Mountain Holidays and Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing. Jill Hughes helped compile the data. Peter Schaerer, Jürg Schweizer and Alaa Sherif each paraphrased sections of papers from German. Bert Davis got me interested in classification trees and provided useful advice on Chapter 9. Martin Schneebeli provided helpful comments on Chapters 5 and 7. Julie Lockhart proofread the entire manuscript. Thanks to Chris Stethem for the photo of Ron Perla at the cracked bed surface in Chapter 8, and to Jill Hughes and Mark Shubin for the photos of snowpack tests in Chapter 1. During this project, I was encouraged by many people including Alan Dennis, Jim Bay, Jack Bennetto, Colani Bezzola, Bob Day, Phil Hein, Clair Israelson, Brian Langan, John Morrall, Chris Stethem, Adrian Wilson, Jackie Wilson, my family and especially Julie Lockhart. My thanks to all who contributed to, or supported, this endeavour. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval Page ................................................................. iii Abstract ........................................................................ v Acknowledgements ............................................................ vii Table of Contents .............................................................. ix List of Tables ................................................................. xiii List of Figures ................................................................. xv List of Symbols ............................................................... xxi 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................... 1 1.1 Effects of Avalanches ....................................................... 1 1.2 Avalanche Hazard Mitigation ................................................ 2 1.3 Mountain Snowpack ........................................................ 3 1.4 Snow Metamorphism ........................................................ 4 1.5 Failure of Snow Slopes ...................................................... 8 1.6 Weak Snowpack Layers ..................................................... 9 1.7 Avalanche Forecasting ..................................................... 11 1.8 Computer Assisted Forecasting ............................................. 16 1.9 Atypical Snowpack Characteristics of Accident Avalanches ................. 17 1.10 Skier-Triggering of Persistent Weak Layers ............................... 18 1.11 Snow Profiles and Snowpack Tests ....................................... 19 1.12 Objective and Outline .................................................... 22 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................ 25 2.1 Introduction ................................................................ 25 2.2 Slab Failure ................................................................ 25 2.3 Shear Frame ............................................................... 27 2.4 Slope-Specific Stability Indices ............................................. 32 2.5 Extrapolated Stability Indices ............................................... 36 2.6 Flaws in Weak Layers and Spatial Variability of Stability Indices ............ 39 2.7 Rutschblock ................................................................ 41 2.8 Summary .................................................................. 44 3 METHODS ......................................................... 47 3.1 Study Areas and Co-operating Organizations ............................... 47 3.2 Sites for Snowpack Tests ................................................... 49 ix Table of Contents, continued 3.3 Equipment ................................................................. 51 3.4 Measurement of Slab Weight per Unit Area ................................. 53 3.5 Shear Frame Tests ......................................................... 54 3.6 Rutschblock Test .......................................................... 57 3.7 Comparison of Rutschblock and Shear Frame Tests ......................... 59 3.8 Avalanche Activity ......................................................... 61 4 FIELD STUDIES OF THE SHEAR FRAME TEST ................. 65 4.1 Introduction ................................................................ 65 4.2 Statistical Distribution ...................................................... 65 4.3 Variability and Number of Tests for Required Precision ..................... 69 4.4 Fracture Surface ........................................................... 71 4.5 Loading Rate .............................................................
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