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Côte D'ivoire www.pwc.com/za Unlocking opportunities Perspectives on Strategic and Emerging Issues in Africa West Coast banking February 2011 Table of contents Foreword 3 About the author 4 Introduction 5 Angola 17 Côte d’Ivoire 43 Democratic Republic of Congo 77 Ghana 115 Nigeria 147 Appendices 177 Contacts 189 2 Perspectives on Strategic and Emerging Issues in Africa West Coast banking Foreword We are pleased to launch this PwC I would like to thank: survey of mainly the banking industry on the West Coast of Africa with • the Chief Executive Officers and references to the insurance markets Senior Executives who participated in certain countries. The survey in this survey for their time, attempts to gather and compare commitment and support in diverse views from senior banking making this publication possible; executives from banking institutions • the partners and staff in our offices in Angola, Democratic Republic of on the West Coast of Africa and Congo (DRC), Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana our Johannesburg office who have and Nigeria, whilst at the same time assisted in producing this report; protecting confidentiality of the and participants. As in our South African Banking and Insurance surveys, this • in particular, Dr Brian Metcalfe for survey offers perspectives on the his work in producing this report. strategic and emerging issues in these We trust that you will find the territories. results and analysis insightful and we welcome any feedback you This survey has been developed by may have on the report so that we PwC and Dr Brian Metcalfe and the can incorporate it into future PwC key objectives are to: surveys. • offer perspectives on certain strategic and emerging issues in Africa West Coast Banking; • establish data on certain industry trends; Tom Winterboer • encourage timely discussion and Financial Services Leader: Southern debate on the best options for Africa and Africa capitalising on trends to enhance and improve performance of the February 2011 various banks; and • provide perspectives on how Africa West Coast Banking could evolve over the next three years. PwC 3 About the author Dr Brian Metcalfe is an Associate Professor in the Business School at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. He has a doctorate in financial services marketing and has researched and produced over 40 reports, such as this one, on behalf of PwC firms in 11 different countries including Australia, Canada, China, India, a number of African countries(2007) and South Africa. Previous reports in South Africa have examined strategic and emerging issues in banking, short and long-term insurance, insurance broking and wealth management. He has consulted for a wide range of organisations, including Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays Bank, Sun Life Insurance Company, Equitable Life of Canada, and several major consulting firms. He has also taught an executive management course entitled ‘Financial Services Marketing’ at the Graduate School of Business, University of Cape Town. This report was researched and written by Dr Brian Metcalfe, Ph.D. Information presented herein, while obtained from sources believed reliable, is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. This report has been commissioned by and distributed through PwC, Johannesburg. Additional copies of this report can be obtained from Tom Winterboer, Financial Services Leader: Southern Africa and Africa – PwC, 2 Eglin Road, Sunninghill, 2157. Telephone: +27 11 797 5407 Fax: +27 11 209 5407 E-mail: [email protected] © 2011 PricewaterhouseCoopers (“PwC”), a South African firm, PwC is part of the PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (“PwCIL”) network that consists of separate and independent legal entities that do not act as agents of PwCIL or any other member firm, nor is PwCIL or the separate firms responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of each other in any way. No portion of this document may be reproduced by any process without the written permission of PwC. 4 Perspectives on Strategic and Emerging Issues in Africa West Coast banking Introduction Introduction PwC 5 Introduction “Scepticism about Africa is waning, says African Development Bank (ADB) president Donald Kaberuka. He points to the high growth figures predicted for the continent - 5% this year and up to 6% next year - as proof that real change is happening. This growth is not only about resources, he maintains. “Something has happened since 2000 that is not simply explained by the price of raw materials. That is maybe 30% of the momentum - the rest is accounted for by fundamental reforms taking place at the macroeconomic level.” Source: Business Day November 2010 6 Perspectives on Strategic and Emerging Issues in Africa West Coast banking Introduction The five banking markets The following findings are based on The DRC’s banking industry is and their level of economic interviews with a sample of banks therefore at a very early stage of development in five financial markets in West and development. Central Africa. Oil exporter segment The report examines the five The oil exporter segment is markets in separate sections. In characterised by strong exports this introductory section, some of per capita but weak levels of the common themes and major diversification. This segment differences are highlighted. This contains two of the report’s sets the scene for the more detailed participants, Angola and Nigeria. analysis that follows. Both markets have benefited from To place the five different markets in oil but also suffered from the global a broader African context, the four financial crisis and the subsequent segment economic model devised by drop in commodity prices. Oil McKinsey has been used. revenues have had far reaching influences on these countries’ This model classified countries banking structures. For example, in according to their level of Angola Sonangol, the state owned diversification and exports per capita. oil company, has shareholdings in Examination of past economic six banks. Sonangol is the largest development has found that as shareholder in Banco Africano de countries develop they migrate along Investimentos the country’s largest both of these axiis. Africa has 53 bank. different countries and the growth prospects will vary for individual In Nigeria the drop in oil revenues countries. The evolution of the and the lack of loan diversification financial sector in these countries opportunities in the broader economy will mirror their respective stages have been cited as a major cause of of economic development. The five the recent banking crisis. banking markets documented in this report fall into different development The Nigerian economy was unable segments. to absorb the excess liquidity that flowed into the capital markets. As Pre-transition segment a result, the market capitalisation of The Democratic Republic of Congo the NSE increased 5.3 times between (DRC) can be positioned in the 2004 and 2007, while bank stocks pre-transition stage. The pre- increased 9 times. These dramatic transition economies are very poor. increases set the stage for the Although some markets such as DRC resultant market crash. which stagnated in the 1990s, have since grown very rapidly. In the pre-transition stage international development agencies often play an important role in trying to put in place economic fundamentals. PwC 7 Introduction Transition segment Diversified segment The third segment includes Only one country reviewed in this economies in transition and are report can be placed in the diversified characterised by rapidly growing group. Cote d’Ivoire is positioned on economies. Ghana fits into this the periphery of this segment and the group and is also well endowed on-going political instability there will with natural resources. Gold and affect its economic progress. cocoa are traditional exports and as of December 2010 oil will support However, it is important to recognise export earnings. It is expected that that Cote d’Ivoire has a relatively oil will contribute an annual average sophisticated infrastructure and is not of US$1.2 billion to state revenues only a significant exporter of coffee over the next twenty years. The and palm oil but is also the world’s banking sector which is already largest producer of cocoa beans. relatively advanced can be expected to benefit as the economy diversifies and develops. Exhibit 3 Exports per capita, 2008, $ 10000 Libya Oil exporters Equatorial Gabon Mauritius Guinea Diversified Botswana Angola Algeria Tunisia Egypt Namibia 1000 Congo, Rep. Cote d’Ivoire South Africa Chad Nigeria Zambia Morocco Sudan Cameroon Senegal Mali Ghana Kenya Mozambique 100 Sierra Leone Madagascar DRC Tanzania Uganda Transition Rwanda Ethiopia Pre-transition 10 3020 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Economic diversification Size of GDP per capita Manufacturing and service sector share of GDP, 2008, % bubble <$500 $2,000–5,000 proportional to GDP $500–1,000 >$5,000 $1,000–2,000 22 countries that account for less than 3% of African GDP in 2008 are not shown in this figure. Source: McKinsey Global Institute using OECD and World Bank Development Indicators 8 Perspectives on Strategic and Emerging Issues in Africa West Coast banking Introduction Participating banks (28 banks) Angola Ghana • Banco Africano de Investimentos • Barclays Bank of Ghana (BAI) • Ecobank Ghana 6 • Banco Caixa Geral Totta Angola1 • Ghana Commercial Bank • Banco Comercial do Huambo • HFC Bank • Banco de Fomento Angola2 • Stanbic Bank Ghana 4 • Banco Millenium Angola3 • Standard Bank Angola4 Nigeria • Citibank
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