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Dry Season Approaching, Silicon Metal Future Market Unfavorable

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Dry Season Approaching, Silicon Metal Future Market Unfavorable AM Insight: Dry season approaching, silicon metal future market unfavorable BEIJING (Asian Metal) 28 Sep 12 – South China will enter the dry season gradually from late October and the electricity price will increase at the time. However, there is no signal for the silicon metal market to pick up in the near future and it is hard for the silicon metal prices to increase sharply later. Many silicon metal plants claimed that the operating rate for plants will decrease gradually later. Currently, the prices for 5-5-3, 5-5-3 oxygen-blown, 4-4-1, 3-3-0-3, 3-3-0-3 (low P) and 2-2-0-2 are stable at around RMB10,400-10,600/t (USD1,642-1,674/t), RMB10,900-11,100/t (USD1,721-1,753/t), RMB11,100-11,300/t (USD1,753-1,785/t), RMB11,600-11,900/t (USD1,832-1,879/t), RMB12,000-12,200/t (USD1,895-1,927/t) and RMB13,000-13,200/t (USD2,053-2,085/t) in ports respectively. Chinese silicon metal prices dropped continuously from the second half of February until the second half of July and many silicon metal plants stopped production gradually. South China entered the rainy season gradually from late May, however, most areas in Hunan and Guizhou do not have the favorable power price for the rainy season this year and few smelters keep running. The main silicon metal output is from Yunnan, Xinjiang and Sichuan, where the power prices are relatively competitive. But as the overall silicon metal market is not strong, silicon metal plants in the above areas cannot run with full capacity. Currently, the operating rates for silicon metal plants in Sichuan, Xinjiang and Yunnan areas is round 60%, 50% and 45% respectively. The power price in Sichuan for the rainy season is around RMB0.27-0.36/kwh (USD4.25-5.67/t). The power price in Dehong and Baoshan in Yunnan is around RMB0.28-0.29/kwh (USD4.41-4.57/t) now for the rainy season level. The power price in Xinjiang is RMB0,32/kwh (USD5.04/t) throughout of the year, however, the transportation will be inconvenient there in winter and the transportation cost will increase. In the previous year, South China will enter the dry season gradually from late October, when the electricity price will increase and power supply will be tight. Last year in the dry season, the power price level in Sichuan was around RMB0.42-0.56/kwh and in Dehong and Baoshan was around 0.42-0.45/kwh (USD6.62-7.09/t). The power price for silicon metal plants in Guizhou for the rainy season was still around RMB0.56/kwh (USD8.83/t) this year and later the power price decreased to around RMB0.47/kwh (USD7.41/t) with the local government’s subsidy, which was still uncompetitive, and most smelters in Guizhou remained out of production. Recently, there was news that the power price in Guizhou could decrease to below RMB0.4/kwh (USD6.3/t), and maybe some silicon metal plants will resume production later. The future silicon metal market is still full of uncertainties and market participants are cautious now. Whether the rainy season will last for longer this year and local governments will have some favorable policies on silicon metal plants or not is still unclear. The power price in the dry season will increase a bit later, but the overall power price level is still unclear. Also, the power price in Guizhou decreased and some smelters may resume production later. Whether it will drag the market down or not is unclear. Asian Metal thinks that it is hard for the silicon metal demand to rebound sharply later. On the one hand, the downstream industries are slow and real demand for silicon metal in both domestic and oversea markets is weak. On the other hand, the export volume of silicon metal to Japan will decrease to some degree on the tense Sino-Japanese relationship. Moreover, China is in the trading war in polysilicon and PV industry with many countries. If the overall power price level increases in the dry season, Chinese silicon metal prices will go up accordingly, but the rising margin will be small and some silicon metal smelters will stop production again later. The market trend depends on the overall operating rate level and demand situation. .
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