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EUROPEAN URBANIZATION TRENDS BBVA Research EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS URBANIZATION REPORT EUROPEAN URBANIZATION TRENDS BBVA Research EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS The urbanization process The European There’s still an important in Europe took place urbanization gap between Western and rapidly since 1950, but in phenomenon is associated the Emerging Europe. the 90s it moderated its with higher economic, Responsive and pace and it will likely be technological and digital accountable policies are slower during the next ten development needed to support years sustainable development European cities have Differences between become in important hubs Western and Eastern for education, innovation Europe also hold at and knowledge-based regional levels. Smart economies. Digitalization cities oriented policies will has been fundamental to foster technological and increase competitiveness sustainable development 2 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS Almost three quarters of the European population lived in urban areas in 2015 And it could rise to just over 80 % by 2050 SHARE OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION BY CONTINENT (1950-2050) (% total population) AFRICA ASIA EUROPE 100 100 100 80 80 80 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA 100 100 100 80 80 80 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban area Rural area Source: BBVA Research and UN 3 Note: See the annex for further information about the methodology EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS The rapid pace of urbanization in Eastern Europe until 1990 reduced the gap with Western countries SHARE OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN EUROPE (1950-2050) (% total population) EASTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2030 1950 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban area Rural area Source: BBVA Research and UN 4 Note: See the annex for further information about the methodology EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS Urbanization has shown a positive relation with income… LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND GDP PER CAPITA LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND GDP PER CAPITA IN EUROPE IN 2000-2015 IN EUROPE IN 2015 45000 40000 Advanced France 40000 Norway Europe 35000 Switzerland Netherlands 35000 Ireland Denmark Iceland 30000 United Kingdom United Austria Sweden 30000 Kingdom Italy Belgium 25000 Germany France Finland Poland Cyprus 25000 Spain 20000 Portugal Spain Greece Malta 20000 Slovenia Czech Republic Romania 15000 15000 Slovak RepublicHungary Poland Estonia GDP per capita (USD GDP capita per PPP) GDP per capita (USD GDP capita per PPP) Croatia Estonia 10000 Lithuania Latvia 10000 Bosnia and Macedonia Serbia Russia Herzegovina Montenegro Emerging 5000 Bulgaria 5000 Europe Azerbaijan Romania Belarus Albania Georgia Ukraine Moldova Armenia 0 0 40 50 60 70 80 90 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Urban population (% of total) Urban population (% of total) 2000 2015 Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN 5 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS … labor productivity… LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND LABOR LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN EUROPE IN 2000-2015 PRODUCTIVITY IN EUROPE IN 2015 100000 140000 France Advanced 90000 Norway Europe 120000 80000 Ireland Spain United Denmark 70000 100000 Sweden Kingdom Switzerland Netherlands France 60000 Spain 80000 Austria Finland Poland Germany Italy 50000 Slovenia Greece United Kingdom 60000 Lithuania 40000 Bosnia and Estonia Romania Estonia Herzegovina Latvia 30000 Cyprus Russia 40000 Montenegro Labor productivity (USD PPP) productivity Labor Labor productivity productivity (USD PPP) Labor Azerbaijan Bulgaria 20000 Romania Emerging Serbia Georgia 20000 Albania 10000 Europe Ukraine Moldova Armenia 0 0 40 50 60 70 80 90 20 40 60 80 100 Urban population (% of total) Urban population (% of total) 2000 2015 Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN 6 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS … as well as with technological adoption and competitiveness levels LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND GLOBAL ADOPTION INDEX IN EUROPE IN 2015 COMPETITIVENESS INDEX IN EUROPE IN 2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best) (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best) 6.5 6 Switzerland Finland Ireland Netherlands United Kingdom 6 Switzerland Luxembourg Germany 5.5 Sweden Sweden Portugal Germany Norway Norway Denmark France United Kingdom 5.5 Lithuania Finland Belgium Austria Austria Iceland Belgium Estonia Denmark 5 Ireland France Luxembourg Turkey Estonia Slovak Republic Spain 5 Cyprus Latvia Azerbaijan Portugal Spain Iceland Montenegro Czech Republic Slovenia Romania 4.5 Poland Malta Croatia Greece Romania Italy Bulgaria Technological adoption adoption Technological 4.5 Slovenia Poland Hungary Moldova Bulgaria Georgia Armenia Moldova Georgia Competitiveness Index Global Croatia Ukraine Italy Slovak Republic Greece Albania 4 4 Armenia Ukraine Serbia Serbia Albania 3.5 3.5 30 50 70 90 30 50 70 90 Urban population (% of total) Urban population (% of total) Source: BBVA Research, Weforum 7 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS There’s a significant technological gap between the advanced and the developing Europe AVAILABILITY OF LATEST TECHNOLOGIES BUSINESS SOPHISTICATION 7 ) 7 , 6 best 6 7 7 ( - , 1 ) 5 5 technologies best ( 4 latest 7 4 - 1 of of 3 sophistication 3 2 2 Availability 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Business 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 FIRM-LEVEL TECHNOLOGY ABSORPTION ICT USE , 7 7 6 6 ) absorption best ) 5 5 7 ( - best 4 7 7 ( - 4 1 use, use, 1 technology 3 3 ICT level - 2 2 Firm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Romania United Kingdom Emerging and Developing Europe Advanced Europe Source: BBVA Research, Weforum 8 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS Higher levels of urbanization also correlates positively with ICT developments… LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND ICT DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE IN 2005-2016* INTERNET USE IN EUROPE IN 2015 140 Denmark Norway 100 Iceland 120 Netherlands Finland Luxembourg Switzerland 100 90 United Kingdom Sweden Austria France Germany 80 Belgium 80 Latvia Czech Republic Spain 60 Internet (%) Internet Ireland Slovenia Lithuania Cyprus Hungary 40 70 Bosnia and Croatia Herzegovina Portugal Greece Serbia Poland 20 Montenegro Belarus 60 Armenia Italy 0 Romania Bulgaria 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Albania Individuals using the the using Individuals 50 Moldova Ukraine Fixed-telephone subscriptions Fixed broadband subscriptions Georgia Mobile-cellular telephone Households with a computer 40 subscriptions Households with Internet 30 50 70 90 Active mobile-broadband access at home Urban population (% of total) subscriptions Individuals using the Internet * Estimate Source: BBVA Research, ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database 9 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS … and with the quality of infrastructures and workforce GLOBAL QUALITY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING IN 2015 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN 2015 INFRASTRUCTURES IN 2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best) (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best) (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best) 6.5 6.5 Netherlands 7 Finland Germany Spain 6 France Switzerland Netherlands 6.5 Netherlands Switzerland Finland 6 Switzerland United Austria Germany Belgium 5.5 Kingdom Norway France Iceland Finland Belgium 7 7 (best) 6 Denmark - Austria Spain Luxembourg Ireland Germany Portugal Portugal Sweden Sweden 5.5 SwedenIceland 5 Turkey Denmark Austria Portugal Estonia United Iceland 5.5 Belgium France Italy Norway Norway United Kingdom Ireland Estonia Slovenia Lithuania Spain 4.5 Luxembour Cyprus Kingdom Latvia Czech Cyprus g Slovenia Ireland Hungary 5 Poland Czech 5 Slovak Republic Slovenia Croatia Malta Croatia Malta Ukraine Malta LithuaniaRepublic Lithuania Republic Greece 4 Greece Croatia Italy Luxembourg Latvia Georgia Estonia Italy Greece Romania Hungary 4.5 Transport infrastructure Georgia Armenia Montenegro 4.5 Albania Hungary 3.5 Slovak Slovak Poland Republic Ukraine Higher education and training Bulgaria Republic Bulgaria 4 Poland Serbia Armenia Armenia 3 Quality Quality of overall infrastructure, 1 Albania Bulgaria Moldova Romania Albania Moldova 4 3.5 Montenegro Georgia Moldova Serbia 2.5 Serbia 3 3.5 2 30 50 70 90 110 30 50 70 90 30 50 70 90 Urban population (% of total) Urban population (% of total) Urban population (% of total) Source: BBVA Research, Weforum 10 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS There’s also room for improvement in policy making to reduce the gap between the advanced and the emerging Europe INFRASTRUCTURE AND EDUCATION INDICES ACROSS EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, 2010-2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Advanced Emerging France United Kingdom Spain Estonia Poland Romania Europe Europe Quality of overall infrastructure Higher education and training Transport infrastructure 11 EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS RegionalThe role of Analysiscities xxxx EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS Evolution of the urban landscape: increasing role of cities THE WORLD’S CITIES BY SIZE CLASS OF URBAN SETTLEMENT 1990 2030 City population: 10 mill or more 5 to 10 mill 1 to 5 mill 500000 to 1 mill Source: BBVA Research, UN 13 Note: See the annex for further information about the methodology EUROPE URBANIZATION TRENDS Higher urban agglomerations are also positively associated with income growth
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