Vol. 76 Thursday, No. 28 February 10, 2011

Part II

Department of the Interior

Fish and Wildlife Service

50 CFR Part 17 Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition to List the Pacific Walrus as Endangered or Threatened; Proposed Rule

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DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: evaluate the Pacific walrus petition in James MacCracken, Marine Mammals FY 2008. Fish and Wildlife Service Management, Alaska Regional Office On December 3, 2008, the Center for (see ADDRESSES); by telephone: 800– Biological Diversity filed a complaint in 50 CFR Part 17 362–5148; or by facsimile: 907–786– U.S. District Court for the District of [Docket No. FWS–R7–ES–2009–0051; MO 3816. If you use a telecommunications Alaska for declaratory judgment and 92210–0–0008–B2] device for the deaf (TDD), please call the injunctive relief challenging the failure Federal Information Relay Service of the Service to make a 90-day finding Endangered and Threatened Wildlife (FIRS) at 800–877–8339. on their petition to list the Pacific and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: walrus, pursuant to section 4(b)(3) of the Petition to List the Pacific Walrus as Endangered Species Act, 16 U.S.C. Endangered or Threatened Background 1533(b)(3), and the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. 706(1). On May AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Section 4(b)(3)(B) of the Endangered 18, 2009, a settlement agreement was Interior. Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act) (16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.), requires that, approved in the case of Center for ACTION: Notice of 12-month petition Biological Diversity v. U.S. Fish and finding. for any petition to revise the Federal Lists of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife Service, et al. (3:08–cv–00265– SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife and Plants that contains JWS), requiring us to submit our 90-day Wildlife Service, announce a 12-month substantial scientific or commercial finding on the petition to the Federal finding on a petition to list the Pacific information that listing the species may Register by September 10, 2009. On walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) be warranted, we make a finding within September 10, 2009, we made our 90- as endangered or threatened and to 12 months of the date of receipt of the day finding that the petition presented designate critical habitat under the petition. In this finding, we will substantial scientific information Endangered Species Act of 1973, as determine whether the petitioned action indicating that listing the Pacific walrus amended. After review of all the is: (a) Not warranted, (b) warranted, or may be warranted (74 FR 46548). On available scientific and commercial (c) warranted, but the immediate August 30, 2010, the Court approved an information, we find that listing the proposal of a regulation implementing amended settlement agreement Pacific walrus as endangered or the petitioned action is precluded by requiring us to submit our 12-month threatened is warranted. Currently, other pending proposals to determine finding to the Federal Register by however, listing the Pacific walrus is whether species are endangered or January 31, 2011. This notice constitutes precluded by higher priority actions to threatened, and expeditious progress is the 12-month finding on the February 7, amend the Lists of Endangered and being made to add or remove qualified 2008, petition to list the Pacific walrus Threatened Wildlife and Plants. Upon species from the Federal Lists of as endangered or threatened. publication of this 12-month petition Endangered and Threatened Wildlife This 12-month finding is based on our finding, we will add Pacific walrus to and Plants. Section 4(b)(3)(C) of the Act consideration and evaluation of the best our candidate species list. We will requires that we treat a petition for scientific and commercial information develop a proposed rule to list the which the requested action is found to available. We reviewed the information Pacific walrus as our priorities allow. be warranted but precluded as though provided in the petition submitted to We will make any determination on resubmitted on the date of such finding, the Service by the Center for Biological critical habitat during development of that is, requiring a subsequent finding to Diversity, information available in our the proposed listing rule. Consistent be made within 12 months. We must files, and other available published and with section 4(b)(3)(C)(iii) of the publish these 12-month findings in the unpublished information. Additionally, Endangered Species Act, we will review Federal Register. in response to our Federal Register the status of the Pacific walrus through notice of September 10, 2009, requesting our annual Candidate Notice of Review. Previous Federal Actions information from the public, as well as DATES: The finding announced in this On February 8, 2008, we received a our September 10, 2010 press release, document was made on February 10, petition dated February 7, 2008, from and other outreach efforts requesting 2011. the Center for Biological Diversity, new information from the public, we received roughly 30,000 submissions, ADDRESSES: This finding and supporting requesting that the Pacific walrus be which we have considered in making documentation are available on the listed as endangered or threatened this finding, including information from Internet at http://www.regulations.gov at under the Act and that critical habitat be Docket Number FWS–R7–ES–2009– designated. The petition included the U.S. Marine Mammal Commission, 0051. A range map of the three walrus supporting information regarding the the State of Alaska, the Alaska North subspecies and a more detailed map of species’ ecology and habitat use Slope Borough, the Eskimo Walrus the Pacific walrus range are available at patterns, and predicted changes in sea- Commission, the Humane Society of the the following Web site: http:// ice habitats and ocean conditions that United States, the Center for Biological alaska.fws.gov/fisheries/mmm/walrus/ may impact the Pacific walrus. We Diversity, the American Petroleum wmain.htm. Supporting documentation acknowledged receipt of the petition in Institute, and many interested citizens. we used in preparing this finding is a letter to the Center for Biological We also consulted with recognized available for public inspection, by Diversity, dated April 9, 2008. In that Pacific walrus experts and Federal, appointment, during normal business letter, we stated that an emergency State, and Tribal agencies. hours at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife listing was not warranted and that all Species Information Service, Alaska Regional Office, 1011 remaining available funds in the listing East Tudor Road, Anchorage, AK 99503. program for Fiscal Year (FY) 2008 had Taxonomy and Species Delineation Please submit any new information, already been allocated to the U.S. Fish The walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) is materials, comments, or questions and Wildlife Service’s (Service) highest the only living representative of the concerning this finding to the above priority listing actions and that no family Odobenidae, a group of marine address. listing funds were available to further carnivores that was highly diversified in

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the late Miocene and early Pliocene found some differences in the ratio of land or ice, in any season, walruses tend (Kohno 2006, pp. 416–419; Harington trace elements in the teeth of Pacific to lie in close physical contact with 2008, p. 26). Fossil evidence suggests walruses sampled in winter from two each other. Young animals often lie on that the genus evolved in the North breeding areas (southeast Bering Sea top of adults. Group size can range from Pacific Ocean and dispersed throughout and St. Lawrence Island), suggesting a few individuals up to several the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic that the sampled animals had a history thousand animals (Gilbert 1999, p. 80; during interglacial phases of the of feeding in different regions. Scribner Kastelein 2002, p. 1298; Jefferson et al. Pleistocene (Harington and Beard 1992, et al. (1997, p. 180), however, found no 2008, p. 378). At any time of the year, pp. 311–319; Dyke et al. 1999, p. 60; difference in mitochondrial and nuclear when groups are disturbed, stampedes Harington 2008, p. 27). DNA among Pacific walruses sampled from a haulout can result in injuries and Three modern subspecies of walruses from different breeding areas. Pacific mortalities. Calves and young animals are generally recognized (Wozencraft walruses are identified and managed in are particularly vulnerable to trampling 2005, p. 525; Integrated Taxonomic the United States and the Russian injuries (Fay 1980, pp. 227–227; Fay Information System, 2010, p. 1): The Federation (Russia) as a single and Kelly 1980, p. 226). Atlantic walrus (O. r. rosmarus), which population (Service 2010, p. 1). The reaction of walruses to ranges from the central Canadian Arctic disturbance ranges from no reaction to eastward to the Kara Sea (Reeves 1978, Species Description escape into the water, depending on the pp. 2–20); the Pacific walrus (O. r. Walruses are readily distinguished circumstances (Fay et al. 1984, pp. 13– divergens), which ranges across the from other Arctic pinnipeds (aquatic 14). Many factors play into the severity Bering and Chukchi Seas (Fay 1982, pp. carnivorous mammals with all four of the response, including the age and 7–21); and the Laptev walrus (O. r. limbs modified into flippers, this group sex of the animals, the size and location laptevi), which is represented by a includes seals, sea lions, and walruses) of the group (on ice, in water, on land), small, geographically isolated by their enlarged upper canine teeth, their distance from the disturbance, and population of walruses in the Laptev which form prominent tusks. The family the nature and intensity of the Sea (Heptner et al. 1976, p. 34; name Odobenidae (tooth walker), is disturbance (Fay et al. 1984, pp. 14, Vishnevskaia and Bychkov 1990, pp. based on observations of walruses using 114–119). Females with calves appear to 155–176; Andersen et al. 1998, p. 1323; their tusks to pull themselves out of the be most sensitive to disturbance, and Wozencraft 2005, p. 595; Jefferson et al. water. Males, which have relatively animals on shore are more sensitive 2008, p. 376). Atlantic and Pacific larger tusks than females, also tend to than those on ice (Fay et al. 1984, p. walruses are genetically and have broader skulls (Fay 1982, pp. 104– 114). A fright response caused by morphologically distinct from each 108). Walrus tusks are used as offensive disturbance can cause stampedes on a other (Cronin et al. 1994, p. 1035), likely and defensive weapons (Kastelein 2002, haulout, resulting in injuries and as a result of range fragmentation and p. 1298). Adult males use their tusks in mortalities (Fay and Kelly 1980, pp. differentiation during glacial phases of threat displays and fighting to establish 241–244). extensive Arctic sea-ice cover dominance during mating (Fay et al. Mating occurs primarily in January (Harington 2008, p. 27). Although 1984, p. 93), and animals of both sexes and February in broken pack ice habitat geographically isolated and ecologically use threat displays to establish and in the Bering Sea. Breeding bulls follow distinct, walruses from the Laptev Sea defend positions on land or ice haulouts herds of females and compete for access appear to be more closely related to (Fay 1982, pp. 134–138). Walruses also to groups of females hauled out onto sea Pacific walruses (Lindqvist et al. 2009, use their tusks to anchor themselves to ice (Fay 1982, pp. 193–194). Males pp. 119–121). ice floes when resting in the water perform visual and acoustical displays Pacific walruses are ecologically during inclement weather (Fay 1982, in the water to attract females and distinct from other walrus populations, pp. 134–138; Kastelein 2002, p. 1298). defend a breeding territory. primarily because they undergo The Pacific walrus is the largest Subdominant males remain on the significant seasonal migrations between pinniped species in the Arctic. At birth, periphery of these aggregations and the Bering and the Chukchi Seas and calves are approximately 65 kilograms apparently do not display. Intruders rely principally on broken pack ice (kg) (143 pounds (lb)) and 113 into display areas are met with threat habitat to access offshore breeding and centimeters (cm) (44.5 inches (in)) long displays and physical attacks. feeding areas (Fay 1982, p. 279) (see (Fay 1982, p. 32). After the first 7 years Individual females leave the resting Species Distribution, below). In contrast, of life, the growth rate of female herd to join a male in the water where Atlantic walruses, which are walruses declines rapidly, and they copulation occurs (Fay et al. 1984, pp. represented by several small discrete reach a maximum body size by 89–99; Sjare and Stirling 1996, p. 900). groups of animals distributed from the approximately 10 years of age. Adult Gestation lasts 15 to 16 months (Fay central Canadian Arctic eastward to the females can reach lengths of up to 3 1982, p. 197) and pregnancies are Kara Sea, exhibit smaller seasonal meters (m) (9.8 feet (ft)) and weigh up spaced at least 2 years apart (Fay 1982, movements and feed primarily in to 1,100 kg (2,425 lb). Male walrus tend p. 206). Calving occurs on sea ice, most coastal areas because the continental to grow faster and for a longer period of typically in May, before the northward shelf is narrow over much of their range. time than females. They usually do not spring migration (Fay 1982, pp. 199– The majority of productive feeding areas reach full adult body size until they are 200). Mothers and newborn calves stay used by Atlantic walruses are accessible 15 to 16 years of age. Adult males can mostly on ice floes during the first few from the coast, and all age classes and reach lengths of 3.5 m (11.5 ft) and can weeks of life (Fay et al. 1984, p. 12). gender groups use terrestrial haulouts weigh more than 2,000 kg (4,409 lb) The social bond between the mother during ice-free seasons (Born et al. 2003, (Fay 1982, p. 33). and calf is very strong, and it is unusual p. 356; COSEWIC 2006, p. 15; Laidre et for a cow to become separated from her al. 2008, pp. S104, S115). Behavior calf (Fay 1982, p. 203). The calf The Pacific walrus is generally Walruses are social and gregarious normally remains with its mother for at considered a single population, animals. They tend to travel in groups least 2 years, sometimes longer, if not although some heterogeneity has been and haul out of the water to rest on ice supplanted by a new calf (Fay 1982, pp. documented. Jay et al. (2008, p. 938) or land in densely packed groups. On 206–211). After separation from their

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mother, young females tend to remain sea ice. When broken sea ice is p. 163; Oliver et al. 1983, p. 504; with groups of adult females, whereas abundant, walruses are typically found Kastelein 2002, p. 1298; Levermann et young males gradually separate from the in patchy aggregations over continental al. 2003, p. 8). The foraging behavior of females and begin to associate with shelf waters. Individual groups may walruses is thought to have a major groups of other males. Individual social range from less than 10 to more than impact on benthic communities in the status appears to be based on a 1,000 animals (Gilbert 1999, pp. 75–84; Bering and Chukchi Seas (Oliver et al. combination of body size, tusk size, and Ray et al. 2006, p. 405). Summer 1983, pp. 507–509; Klaus et al. 1990, p. aggressiveness. Individuals do not concentrations have been reported in 480). Ray et al. (2006, pp. 411–413) necessarily associate with the same loose pack ice off the northwestern coast estimate that walruses consume group of animals and must continually of Alaska, between Icy Cape and Point approximately 3 million metric tons reaffirm their social status in each new Barrow, and along the coast of (3,307 tons) of benthic biomass aggregation (Fay 1982, p. 135; Chukotka, Russia, as far west as Wrangel annually, and that the area affected by NAMMCO 2004, p. 43). Island (Fay 1982, pp. 16–17; Gilbert et walrus foraging is in the order of al. 1992, pp. 1–33; Belikov et al. 1996, thousands of square kilometers (sq km) Species Distribution pp. 267–269). In years of low ice (thousands of square miles (sq mi)) Pacific walruses range across the concentrations in the Chukchi Sea, annually. Consequently, walruses play a shallow continental shelf waters of the some animals range east of Point Barrow major role in benthic ecosystem northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, into the Beaufort Sea; walruses have structure and function, which Ray et al. occasionally ranging into the East also been observed in the Eastern (2006, p. 415) suggested increased Siberian Sea and Beaufort Sea (Fay Siberian Sea in late summer (Fay 1982, nutrient flux and productivity. 1982, pp. 7–21; Figure 1 in Garlich- pp. 16–17; Belikov et al. 1996, pp. 267– The earliest studies of food habits Miller et al. 2011). Waters deeper than 269). The pack ice of the Chukchi Sea were based on examination of stomachs 100 m (328 ft) and the extent of the pack usually reaches its minimum extent in from walruses killed by hunters. These ice are factors that limit distribution to September. In years when the sea ice reports indicated that walruses were the north (Fay 1982, p. 23). Walruses are retreats north beyond the continental primarily feeding on bivalves (clams), rarely spotted south of the Alaska shelf, walruses congregate in large and that non-bivalve prey was only Peninsula and Aleutian archipelago; numbers (up to several tens of incidentally ingested (Fay 1982, p. 145; however, migrant animals (mostly thousands of animals in some locations) Sheffield et al. 2001, p. 311). However, males) are occasionally reported in the at terrestrial haulouts on Wrangel Island these early studies did not take into North Pacific (Service 2010, and other sites along the northern coast account the differential rate of digestion unpublished data). of the Chukotka Peninsula, Russia, and of prey items (Sheffield et al. 2001, p. Pacific walruses are highly mobile, northwestern Alaska (Fay 1982, p. 17; 311). Additional research indicates that and their distribution varies markedly Belikov et al. 1996, pp. 267–269; stomach contents include over 100 taxa in response to seasonal and interannual Kochnev 2004, pp. 284–288; of benthic invertebrates from all major variations in sea-ice cover. During the Ovsyanikov et al. 2007, pp. 1–4; Kavry phyla (Fay 1982, p. 145; Sheffield and January to March breeding season, et al. 2008, pp. 248–251). Grebmeier 2009, p. 764), and while walruses congregate in the Bering Sea In late September and October, bivalves remain the primary component, pack ice in areas where open leads walruses that summered in the Chukchi walruses are not adapted to a diet solely (fractures in sea ice caused by wind drift Sea typically begin moving south in of clams. Other prey items have similar or ocean currents), polynyas (enclosed advance of the developing sea ice. energetic benefits (Wacasey and areas of unfrozen water surrounded by Satellite telemetry data indicate that Atkinson 1987, pp. 245–247). Based on ice) or thin ice allow access to water male walruses that summered at coastal analysis of the contents from fresh (Fay 1982, p. 21; Fay et al. 1984, pp. 89– haulouts in the Bering Sea also begin to stomachs of Pacific walruses collected 99). The specific location of winter move northward towards winter between 1975 and 1985 in the Bering breeding aggregations varies annually breeding areas in November (Jay and Sea and Chukchi Sea, prey consumption depending upon the distribution and Hills 2005, p. 197). The male walruses’ likely reflects benthic invertebrate extent of ice. Breeding aggregations have northward movement appears to be composition (Sheffield and Grebmeier been reported southwest of St. Lawrence driven primarily by the presence of 2009, pp. 764–768). Of the large number Island, Alaska; south of Nunivak Island, females at that time of year (Freitas et of different types of prey, statistically Alaska; and south of the Chukotka al. 2009, pp. 248–260). significant differences between males Peninsula in the Gulf of Anadyr, Russia and females from the Bering Sea were Foraging and Prey (Fay 1982, p. 21; Mymrin et al. 1990, pp. found in the occurrence of only two 105–113; Figure 1 in Garlich-Miller et Walruses consume mostly benthic prey items, and there were no al. 2011). (region at the bottom of a body of water) statistically significant differences in In spring, as the Bering Sea pack ice invertebrates and are highly adapted to results for males and females from the deteriorates, most of the population obtain bivalves (Fay 1982, p. 139; Chukchi Sea (Sheffield and Grebmeier migrates northward through the Bering Bowen and Siniff 1999, p. 457; Born et 2009, pp. 765). Although these data are Strait to summer feeding areas over the al. 2003, p. 348; Dehn et al. 2007, p. for Pacific walrus stomachs collected continental shelf in the Chukchi Sea. 176; Boveng et al. 2008, pp. 17–19; 25–35 years ago, we have no reason to However, several thousand animals, Sheffield and Grebmeier 2009, pp. 766– believe there has been a change in the primarily adult males, remain in the 767). Fish and other vertebrates have general pattern of prey use described Bering Sea during the summer months, occasionally been found in their here. foraging from coastal haulouts in the stomachs (Fay 1982, p. 153; Sheffield Walruses typically swallow Gulf of Anadyr, Russia, and in Bristol and Grebmeier 2009, p. 767). Walruses invertebrates without shells in their Bay, Alaska (Figure 1 in Garlich-Miller root in the bottom sediment with their entirety (Fay 1982, p. 165). Walruses et al. 2011). muzzles and use their whiskers to locate remove the soft parts of mollusks from Summer distributions (both males and prey items. They use their fore-flippers, their shells by suction, and discard the females) in the Chukchi Sea vary nose, and jets of water to extract prey shells (Fay 1982, pp. 166–167). Born et annually, depending upon the extent of buried up to 32 cm (12.6 in) (Fay 1982, al. (2003, p. 348) reported that Atlantic

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walruses consumed an average of 53.2 et al. 1984, pp. 89–99), giving birth (Fay between feeding bouts (Ray et al. 2006, bivalves (range 34 to 89) per dive. Based 1982, p. 199), and nursing and care of p. 406). However, it has also been noted on caloric need and observations of young (Kelly 2001, pp. 43–55). Sea ice that walruses can and will exploit a captive walruses, walruses require provides access to offshore feeding areas fairly broad range of ice types and ice approximately 29 to 74 kg (64 to 174 over the continental shelf of the Bering concentrations in order to stay in lbs) of food per day (Fay 1982, p. 160). and Chukchi Seas, passive preferred foraging or breeding areas Adult males forage little during the transportation to new feeding areas (Freitas et al. 2009, p. 247; Jay et al. breeding period (Fay 1982, pp. 142, (Richard 1990, p. 21; Ray et al. 2006, pp. 2010a, p. 300). Walruses tend to make 159–161; Ray et al. 2006, p. 411), while 403–419), and isolation from terrestrial shorter foraging excursions when they lactating females may eat two to three predators (Richard 1990, p. 23; Kochnev are using sea ice rather than land times that of nonpregant, nonlactating 2004, p. 286; Ovsyanikov et al. 2007, haulouts (Udevitz et al. 2009, p. 1122), females (Fay 1982, p.159). Calves up to pp. 1–4). Sea ice provides an extensive presumably because it is more 1 year of age depend primarily on their substrate upon which the risk of energetically efficient for them to mother’s milk (Fay 1982, p. 138) and are predation and hunting is greatly haulout on ice near productive feeding gradually weaned in their second year reduced (Kelly 2001, pp. 43–55; Fay areas than forage from shore. Fay (1982, (Fisher and Stewart 1997, pp. 1165– 1982, p. 26). p. 25) notes that several authors 1175). Sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere is reported that when walruses had the Although walruses are capable of comprised of first-year sea ice that choice of ice or land for a resting place, diving to depths of more than 250 m formed in the most recent autumn- ice was always selected. (820 ft) (Born et al. 2005, p. 30), they winter period, and multi-year ice that usually forage in waters of 80 m (262 ft) has survived at least one summer melt Terrestrial Habitats (Coastal Haulouts) or less (Fay and Burns 1988, p. 239; season. Sea-ice habitats for walruses When suitable sea ice is not available, Born et al. 2003, p. 348; Kovacs and include openings or leads that provide walruses haul out on land to rest. A Lydersen 2008, p. 138), presumably access to the water and to food wide variety of substrates, ranging from because of higher productivity of their resources. Walruses generally do not use sand to boulders, are used. Isolated benthic foods in shallow waters (Fay multi-year ice or highly compacted first- islands, points, spits, and headlands are and Burns 1988, pp. 239–240; Carey year ice in which there is an absence of occupied most frequently. The primary 1991, p. 869; Jay et al. 2001, p. 621; persistent leads or polynyas (Richard consideration for a terrestrial haulout Grebmeier et al. 2006b, pp. 334–346; 1990, p. 21). Expansive areas of heavy site appears to be isolation from Grebmeier et al. 2006a, p. 1461). ice cover are thought to play a disturbances and predators, although Walruses make foraging trips from land restrictive role in walrus distributions social factors, learned behavior, or ice haulouts that range from a few across the Arctic and serve as a barrier protection from strong winds and surf, hours up to several days and up to 100 to the mixing of populations (Fay 1982, and proximity to food resources also kilometers (km) (60 miles (mi)) (Jay et p. 23; Dyke et al. 1999, pp. 161–163; likely influence the choice of terrestrial al. 2001, p. 626; Born et al. 2003, p. 349; Harington 2008, p. 35). Walruses haulout sites (Richard 1990, p. 23). Ray et al. 2006, p. 406; Udevitz et al. generally do not occur farther south Walruses tend to use established 2009, p. 1122). Walruses tend to make than the maximum extent of the winter haulout sites repeatedly and exhibit shorter and more frequent foraging trips pack ice, possibly due to their reliance some degree of fidelity to these sites (Jay when sea ice is used as a foraging on sea ice for breeding and rearing and Hills 2005, pp. 192–202), although platform compared to terrestrial young (Fay et al. 1984, pp. 89–99) and the use of coastal haulouts appears to haulouts (Udevitz et al. 2009, p. 1122). isolation from terrestrial predators fluctuate over time, possibly due to Satellite telemetry data for walruses in (Kochnev 2004, p. 286; Ovsyanikov et localized prey depletion (Garlich-Miller the Bering Sea in April of 2004, 2005, al. 2007, pp. 1–4), or because of the and Jay 2000, pp. 58–65). Human and 2006 showed they spent an average higher densities of benthic invertebrates disturbance is also thought to influence of 46 hours in the water between resting in northern waters (Grebmeier et al. the choice of haulout sites; many bouts on ice, which averaged 9 hours 2006a, pp. 1461–1463). historic haulouts in the Bering Sea were (Udevitz et al. 2009, p. 1122). Because Walruses generally occupy first-year abandoned in the early 1900s when the females and young travel with the ice that is greater than 20 cm (7.9 in) Pacific walrus population was subjected retreating pack ice in the spring and thick and are not found in areas of to high levels of exploitation (Fay 1982, summer, they are passively transported extensive, unbroken ice (Fay 1982, pp. p. 26; Fay et al. 1984, p. 231). northward over feeding grounds across 21, 26; Richard 1990, p. 23). Thus, in Adult male walruses use land-based the continental shelves of the Bering winter they concentrate in areas of haulouts more than females or young, and Chukchi Seas. Male walruses broken pack ice associated with and consequently, have a greater appear to have greater endurance than divergent ice flow or along the margins geographical distribution through the females, with foraging excursions from of persistent polynyas (Burns et al. ice-free season. Many adult males land haulouts that can last up to 142 1981, pp. 781–797; Fay et al. 1984, pp. remain in the Bering Sea throughout the hours (about 6 days) (Jay et al. 2001, p. 89–99; Richard 1990, p. 23) in areas ice-free season, making foraging trips 630). with abundant food resources (Ray et al. from coastal haulouts in Bristol Bay, 2006, p. 406). Females with young Alaska, and the Gulf of Anadyr, Russia Sea-Ice Habitats generally spend the summer months in (Figure 1 in Garlich-Miller et al. 2011), The Pacific walrus is an ice- pack ice habitats of the Chukchi Sea, while females and juvenile animals dependent species that relies on sea ice where they feed intensively between generally stay with the drifting ice pack for many aspects of its life history. bouts of resting and suckling their throughout the year (Fay 1982, pp. 8– Unlike other pinnipeds, walruses are young. Some authors have suggested 19). Females with dependent young may not adapted for a pelagic existence and that the size and topography of prefer sea-ice habitats because coastal must haul out on ice or land regularly. individual ice floes are important haulouts pose greater risk from Floating pack ice serves as a substrate features in the selection of ice haulouts, trampling injuries and predation (Fay for resting between feeding bouts (Ray et noting that some animals have been and Kelly 1980, pp. 226–245; al. 2006, p. 404), breeding behavior (Fay observed returning to the same ice floe Ovsyanikov et al. 1994, p. 80; Kochnev

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2004, pp. 285–286; Ovsyanikov et al. Hills 2005, p. 198) (presumably 58–67). Large mixed herds of walruses 2007, pp. 1–4; Kavry et al. 2008, pp. mediated by sea-ice coverage or have also been reported in late fall and 248–251; Mulcahy et al. 2009, p. 3). temperature). early winter at coastal haulouts in the Females may also prefer sea-ice habitats Historically, coastal haulouts along northern Bering Sea at the Punuk because they may have difficulty the Arctic (Chukchi Sea) coast have Islands and Saint Lawrence Island, nourishing themselves while caring for been used less consistently during the Alaska; Big Diomede Island, Russia; and a young calf that has limited swimming summer months than those in the King Island, Alaska, prior to the range (Cooper et al. 2006, p. 101; Jay Bering Sea because of the presence of formation of sea ice in offshore breeding and Fischbach 2008, p. 1). pack ice (a preferred substrate) for much and feeding areas (Fay and Kelly 1980, The numbers of male walruses using of the year in the Chukchi Sea. Since the p. 226; Garlich-Miller and Jay 2000, pp. coastal haulouts in the Bering Sea mid-1990s, reductions of summer sea 58–67; Figure 1 in Garlich-Miller et al. during the summer months, and the ice coincided with a marked increase in 2011). relative uses of different coastal haulout the use of coastal haulouts along the sites in the Bering Sea have varied over Chukchi sea coast of Russia during the Vital Rates the past century. Harvest records summer months (Kochnev 2004, pp. Walruses have the lowest rate of indicate that walrus herds were once 284–288; Kavry et al. 2008, pp. 248– reproduction of any pinniped species common at coastal haulouts along the 251). Large, mixed (composed of various (Fay 1982, pp. 172–209). Although male Alaska Peninsula and the islands of age and sex groups) herds of walruses, walruses reach puberty at 6–7 years of northern Bristol Bay (Fay et al. 1984, up to several tens of thousands of age, they are unlikely to successfully pp. 231–376). By the early 1950s, most animals, began to use coastal haulouts compete for access to females until they of the traditional haulout areas in the on Wrangel Island, Russia in the early reach full body size at 15 years of age Southern Bering Sea had been 1990s, and several coastal haulouts or older (Fay 1982, p. 33; Fay et al. abandoned, presumably due to hunting along the northern Chukotka coastline 1984, p. 96). Female walruses attain pressure. During the 1950s and 1960s, of Russia have emerged in recent years, sexual maturity at 4–7 years of age (Fay Round Island was the only regularly likely as a result of reductions in 1982, pp. 172–209), and the median age used haulout in Bristol Bay, Alaska. In summer sea ice in the Chukchi Sea of first birth ranges from approximately 1960, the State of Alaska established the (Kochnev 2004, pp. 284–288; 8 to 10 years of age (Garlich-Miller et al. Walrus Islands State Game Sanctuary, Ovsyanikov et al. 2007, pp. 1–4; Kavry 2006, pp. 887–893). Because gestation which closed Round Island to hunting. et al. 2008, p. 248–251; Figure 1 in lasts 15–16 months, it extends through Peak counts of walruses at Round Island Garlich-Miller et al. 2011). the following breeding season and thus, increased from 1,000–2,000 animals in In 2007, 2009, and 2010, walruses the minimum interval between the late 1950s (Frost et al. 1983, pp. 379) were also observed hauling out in large successful births is 2 years. Ovulation to more than 10,000 animals in the early numbers with mixed sex and age groups may also be suppressed until the calf is 1980s (Sell and Weiss, p. 12), but along the Chukchi Sea coast of Alaska weaned, raising the birth interval to 3 subsequently declined to 2,000–5,000 in late August, September, and October years or more (Garlich-Miller and over the past decade (Sell and Weiss (Thomas et al. 2009, p. 1; Service 2010, Stewart 1999, p. 188). The age of sexual 2010, p. 12). General observations unpublished data). Monitoring studies maturity and birth rates may be density- indicate that declining walrus counts at conducted in association with oil and dependent (Fay et al. 1989, pp. 1–16; Round Island may, in part, reflect a gas exploration suggest that the use of Fay et al. 1997, pp. 537–565; Garlich- redistribution of animals to other coastal coastal haulouts along the Arctic coast Miller et al. 2006, pp. 892–893). sites in the Bristol Bay region. For of Alaska during the summer months is The low birth rate of walruses is offset example, walruses have been observed dependent upon the availability of sea in part by considerable maternal increasingly regularly at the Cape ice. For example, in 2006 and 2008, investment in offspring (Fay et al. 1997, Seniavin haulout on the Alaska walruses foraging off the Chukchi Sea p. 550). Assumed survival rates through Peninsula since the 1970s, and at Cape coast of Alaska remained with the ice the first year of life range from 0.5 to 0.9 Peirce and Cape Newenham in pack over the continental shelf during (Fay et al. 1997, p. 550). Survival rates northwest Bristol Bay since the early the months of August, September, and for juveniles through adults (i.e., 4–20 1980s (Jay and Hills 2005, p. 193; Figure October. However in 2007, 2009, and years old) have been assumed to be as 1 in Garlich-Miller et al. 2011). 2010, the pack ice retreated beyond the high as 0.96 to 0.99 per cent (DeMaster Traditional male summer haulouts continental shelf and large numbers of 1984, p. 78; Fay et al. 1997, p. 544), along the Bering Sea coast of Russia walruses hauled out on land at several declining to zero by 40 to 45 years include sites along the Kamchatka locations between Point Barrow and (Chivers 1999, p. 240). Using published Peninsula, the Gulf of Anadyr (most Cape Lisburne, Alaska (Ireland et al. estimates of survival and reproduction, notably Rudder and Meechkin spits), 2009, p. xvi; Thomas et al. 2009, p. 1; Chivers (1999, pp. 239–247) developed and Arakamchechen Island (Garlich- Service 2010, unpublished data; Figure an individual age-based model of the Miller and Jay 2000, pp. 58–65; Figure 1 in Garlich-Miller et al. 2011). Pacific walrus population, which 1 in Garlich-Miller et al. 2011). Several Transitory coastal haulouts have also yielded a maximum population growth of the southernmost haulouts along the been reported in late fall (October– rate of 8 percent, but cautioned this coast of Kamchatka have not been November) along the southern Chukchi should not be considered to be an occupied in recent years, and the Sea coast, coinciding with the southern estimate of the maximum growth rate number of animals in the Gulf of migration. Mixed herds of walruses (Chivers 1999, p. 239). Thus, the 8 Anadyr has also declined in recent years frequently come to shore to rest for a percent figure remains theoretical (Kochnev 2005, p. 4). Factors few days to weeks along the coast before because age-specific survival rates for influencing abundance at Bering Sea continuing on their migration to the free-ranging walruses are poorly known. haulouts are poorly understood, but Bering Sea. Cape Lisburne, Alaska, and may include changes in prey densities Capes Serdtse-Kamen’ and Dezhnev, Abundance near the haulouts, changes in Russia, are the most consistently used Based on large sustained harvests in population size, disturbance levels, and haulouts in the Chukchi Sea at this time the 18th and 19th centuries, Fay (1982, changing seasonal distributions (Jay and of year (Garlich-Miller and Jay 2000, pp. p. 241) speculated that the pre-

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exploitation population was represented by the United States and Russia at 5- systems to detect walruses hauled out by a minimum of 200,000 animals. year intervals produced population on sea ice and satellite transmitters to Since that time, population size is estimates ranging from 201,039 to account for walruses in the water believed to have fluctuated in response 290,000. Efforts to survey the Pacific (Speckman et al. 2010, p. 4). The to varying levels of human exploitation. walrus population were suspended by number of walruses within the surveyed Large-scale commercial harvests are both countries after 1990, due to area was estimated at 129,000, with 95- believed to have reduced the population unresolved problems with survey percent confidence intervals of 55,000 to 50,000–100,000 animals in the mid- methods that produced population to 507,000 individuals. This is a 1950s (Fay et al. 1997, p. 539). The estimates with unknown bias and minimum estimate, as weather population apparently increased rapidly unknown—but presumably large— conditions forced termination of the in size during the 1960s and 1970s in variances that severely limited their survey before much of the southwest response to harvest regulations that utility (Speckman et al. 2010, p. 3). Bering Sea was surveyed; animals were limited the take of females (Fay et al. In 2006, a joint U.S.-Russian survey observed in that region as the surveyors 1989, p. 4). Between 1975 and 1990, was conducted in the pack ice of the returned to Anchorage, Alaska. Table 1 visual aerial surveys jointly conducted Bering Sea, using thermal imaging provides a summary of survey results.

TABLE 1—ESTIMATES OF PACIFIC WALRUS POPULATION SIZE, 1975–2006.

Year Population size (with range or Reference confidence interval) a

1975 ...... 214,687 (Udevitz et al. 2001, p. 614). 1980 ...... 250,000–290,000 (Johnson et al. 1982, p. 3; Fedoseev 1984, p. 58). 1985 ...... 242,366 (Udevitz et al. 2001, p. 614). 1990 ...... 201,039 (Gilbert et al. 1992, p. 28). 2006 ...... 129,000 (50,000–500,000) (Speckman et al. 2010). aDue to differences in methods, comparisons of estimates across years (population trends) are not possible. Most estimates did not provide a range or confidence interval.

We acknowledge that these survey habitat had been covered (Speckman et the trend in abundance of the walrus results suggest to some that the walrus al. 2010). Due to these general problems, population or the status of its prey to population may be declining; however, as well as seasonal differences among verify this hypothesis, and that whether we do not believe the survey surveys (fall or spring) and density-dependent changes in life- methodologies support such a definitive technological advancements that correct history parameters might have been conclusion. Resource managers in for some problems, we do not believe mediated by changes in population Russia have concluded that the the survey results provide a reliable abundance or changes in the carrying population has declined, and basis for estimating a population trend. capacity of the environment is accordingly, have reduced harvest Changes in the walrus population unknown. quotas in recent years (Kochnev 2004, p. have also been investigated by Summary of Information Pertaining to 284; Kochnev 2005, p. 4; Kochnev, examining changes in biological the Five Factors 2010, pers. comm.), based in part on the parameters over time. Based on lower abundance estimate generated evidence of changes in abundance, Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533) from the 2006 survey results. However, distributions, condition indices, and and implementing regulations (50 CFR past survey results are not directly life-history parameters, Fay et al. (1989, part 424) set forth the procedures for comparable among years due to pp.1–16) and Fay et al. (1997, pp. 537– adding species to, removing species differences in survey methods, timing of 565) concluded that the Pacific walrus from, or reclassifying species on the surveys, segments of the population population increased greatly in size Federal Lists of Endangered and surveyed, and incomplete coverage of during the 1960s and 1970s, and Threatened Wildlife and Plants. Under areas where walruses may have been postulated that the population was section 4(a)(1) of the Act, a species may present (Fay et al. 1997, p. 537); thus, approaching, or had exceeded, the be determined to be endangered or these results do not provide a basis for carrying capacity of its environment by threatened based on any of the determining trends in population size the early 1980s. Harvest increased in the following five factors: (Hills and Gilbert 1994, p. 203; Gilbert 1980s: changes in the size, composition, (A) The present or threatened 1999, pp. 75–84). Whether prior and productivity of the sampled walrus destruction, modification, or estimates are biased low or high is harvest in the Bering Strait Region of curtailment of its habitat or range; unknown, because of problems with Alaska over this time frame are (B) Overutilization for commercial, detecting individual animals on ice or consistent with this hypothesis (Garlich- recreational, scientific, or educational land, and in open water, and difficulties Miller et al. 2006, p. 892). Harvest levels purposes; counting animals in large, dense groups declined sharply in the early 1990s, and (C) Disease or predation; (Speckman et al. 2010, p. 33). In increased reproductive rates and earlier (D) The inadequacy of existing addition, no survey has ever been maturation in females occurred, regulatory mechanisms; or completed within a timeframe that suggesting that density-dependent (E) Other natural or manmade factors could account for the redistribution of regulatory mechanisms had been affecting its continued existence. individuals (leading to double counting relaxed and the population was likely In making this 12-month finding, we or undercounting), or before weather below carrying capacity (Garlich-Miller considered and evaluated the best conditions either delayed the effort or et al. 2006, p. 893). However, Garlich- available scientific and commercial completely terminated the survey before Miller et al. (2006, pp. 892–893) also information. Information pertaining to the entire area of potentially occupied noted that there are no data concerning the Pacific walrus in relation to the five

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factors provided in section 4(a)(1) of the Factor A. The Present or Threatened 2007, the extent of Arctic Ocean sea ice Act is discussed below. Destruction, Modification, or reached a record low, approximately 50 In considering what factors might Curtailment of Its Habitat or Range percent lower than conditions in the constitute threats to a species, we must The following potential stressors that 1950s through the 1970s, and 23 percent look beyond the exposure of the species may affect the habitat or range of the below the previous record set in 2005 to a particular stressor to evaluate Pacific walrus are discussed in this (Stroeve et al. 2008, p. 13). Minimum whether the species may respond to that section: (1) Loss of sea ice due to sea-ice extent in 2010 was the third stressor in a way that causes actual climate change; and (2) effects on prey lowest in the satellite record, behind impacts to the species. If there is 2007 and 2008 (second lowest), and species due to ocean warming and exposure to a stressor and the species most of this loss occurred on the Pacific ocean acidification. responds negatively, the stressor may be side of the Arctic Ocean. a threat and we attempt to determine Effects of Global Climate Change on Sea- Of long-term significance is the loss of how significant a threat it is. The threat Ice Habitats over 40 percent of Arctic multi-year sea is significant if it drives, or contributes The Pacific walrus depends on sea ice ice over the last 5 years (Kwok et al. 2009, p. 1). Since 2004, there has been to, the risk of extinction of the species for several aspects of its life history. such that the species warrants listing as a reversal in the volumetric and areal This section describes recent endangered or threatened as those terms contributions between first-year ice and observations and future projections of are defined in the Act. However, the multi-year ice in regards to the total sea-ice conditions in the Bering and identification of stressors that could volume and area of the Arctic Ocean Chukchi Seas through the end of the impact a species negatively may not be that they cover, with first-year ice now 21st century. Following this sufficient to compel a finding that the predominating (Kwok et al. 2009, p. 16). presentation on the changing ice species warrants listing. The Export of ice through Fram Strait, dynamics, we examine how these information must include evidence together with the decline in multi-year changing ice conditions may affect the sufficient to suggest that these stressors ice coverage, suggests that recently there Pacific walrus population. are operative threats that act on the has been near-zero replenishment of The Arctic Ocean is covered primarily species to the point that the species multi-year ice (Kwok et al. 2009, p. 16). by a mix of multi-year sea ice, whereas meets the definition of endangered or The area of the Arctic Ocean covered by threatened under the Act. Also, because more southerly regions, such as the ice predominantly older than 5 years an individual stressor may not be a Bering Sea, are seasonal ice zones where decreased by 56 percent between 1982 threat by itself, but could be in first-year ice is renewed every winter. and 2007 (Polyak et al. 2010, p. 1759). conjunction with one or more other The observed and projected effects of Within the central Arctic Ocean, old ice stressors, our process includes global warming vary in different parts of has declined by 88 percent, and ice that considering the combined effects of the world, and the Arctic and Antarctic is at least 9 years old has essentially stressors. regions are increasingly recognized as disappeared (Markus et al. 2009, p. 13: To inform our analysis of threats to being extremely vulnerable to current Polyak et al. 2010, p. 1759). In addition, the Pacific walrus, we also took into and projected effects. For several from 2005 to 2008 there was a thinning consideration the results of two decades, the surface air temperatures in of 0.6 m (1.9 ft) in multi-year ice Bayesian network modeling efforts; one the Arctic have warmed at thickness. It is likely that the rapid conducted by the Service (Garlich- approximately twice the global rate decline of sea ice in 2007 was in part Miller et al. 2011), and the other (Christensen et al. 2007, p. 904). The the result of thinner and lower coverage, conducted by the U.S. Geological observed and projected effects of of the multi-year ice (Comiso et al. 2008, Survey (USGS) (Jay et al. 2010b). climate change are most extreme during p. 6). It would take many years to Although quantitative, empirical data summer in northern high-latitude restore the ice thickness through annual can be used in Bayesian networks, when regions, in large part due to the ice- growth, and the loss of multi-year ice primarily qualitative data are available, albedo (reflective property) feedback makes it unlikely that the age and such as for the Pacific walrus, the mechanism, in which melting of snow thickness composition of the ice pack models are well suited to formalizing and sea ice lowers surface reflectivity, will return to previous climatological and quantifying the opinions of experts thereby further increasing surface conditions with continued global (Marcot et al. 2006, p. 3063). Bayesian warming from absorption of solar warming. Further loss of sea ice will be network models (also known as radiation. a major driver of changes across the Bayesian belief networks, reflecting the Since 1979 (the beginning of the Arctic over the next decades, especially importance of expert opinion) satellite record of sea-ice conditions), in late summer and autumn (NOAA graphically display the relevant there has been an overall reduction in 2010, p. 77503). stressors, the interactions among the extent of Arctic sea ice (Parkinson Due to asymmetric geography of the stressors, and the cumulative impact of et al. 1999, p. 20837; Comiso 2002, p. Arctic and the scale of weather patterns, those stressors as they are integrated 1956; Stroeve et al. 2005, pp. 1–4; there is considerable regional variability through the network. In general terms, Comiso 2006, pp. 1–3; Meier et al. 2007, in sea-ice cover (Meier et al. 2007, p. the network is composed of input p. 428; Stroeve et al. 2007, p. 1; Comiso 430), and although the early loss of variables that represent key et al. 2008, p. 1; Stroeve et al. 2008, p. summer sea ice and volumetric ice loss environmental correlates (e.g., sea-ice 13). Although the decline is a year- in the Arctic applies directly to the loss, harvest, shipping) and response round trend, far greater reductions have Chukchi Sea, it cannot be directly variables, (e.g., population status). been noted in summer sea ice than in extrapolated to the seasonal ice zone of Although we did not rely on the results winter sea ice. For example, from 1979 the Bering Sea (NOAA 2010, p. 77503). of the Bayesian models as the sole basis to 2009, the extent of September sea ice The contrasts between the two are for our conclusions in this finding, the seen Arctic wide has declined 11 dramatic: The Bering Sea is one of the models corroborated the results of our percent per decade (Polyak et al. 2010, most stable in terms of sea ice, threats analysis. Results of the models p. 1797). In recent years, the trend in especially in the winter, and the are presented in the five-factor analysis Arctic sea-ice loss has accelerated Chukchi Sea has had some of the most below, where pertinent. (Comiso et al. 2008, p. 1). In September dramatic losses of summer sea ice

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(Meier et al., p. 431). Below, we describe documented for 1979 to 2005 for May and early January resulted in most of the the sea-ice conditions in the Bering and (¥0.19 percent), June (¥4.3 percent), eastern Bering Sea shelf being ice- Chukchi Seas as they occur presently, as July (¥6.7 percent), August (¥15.4 covered by mid-January, an advance of well as recent trends and projections for percent), September (¥26.3 percent), 900 km (559 mi), or 30 km per day (19 the future. October (¥18.6 percent), and November mi per day). Maximum ice extent In March and April, at maximal sea- (¥8.0 percent): The overall annual occurred in late March, with ice ice extent, the Chukchi Sea is typically reduction (¥4.9 percent) is statistically covering much of the shelf, resulting in completely frozen, and ice cover in the significant (Meier et al. 2007, p. 431). In a near record maximum ice extent. Ice Bering Sea extends southward to a essence, the Chukchi Sea has shown then slowly retreated, and the Bering latitude of approximately 58–60 degrees declines in all months when it is not Sea was not ice-free until almost July. north (Boveng et al. 2008, pp. 33–52). completely ice-covered, with greatest Therefore, winter ice conditions are not The Bering Sea spans the marginal sea- declines in months of maximal melt and necessarily related to the summer-fall ice zone, where ice gives way to water early freeze-up (August, September, and ice conditions of the previous year. at the southern edge, and around the October). peripheries of persistent polynyas. Sea During the period 1979–2006, the Model Projections of Future Sea Ice ice in the Bering Sea is highly dynamic September sea-ice extent in the Chukchi The analysis and synthesis of and largely a wind-driven system Sea decreased by 26 percent per decade information presented by the (Sasaki and Minobe 2005, pp. 1–2). Ice (Douglas 2010, p. 2). In recent years, sea Intergovernmental Panel on Climate cover is comprised of a variety of first- ice typically has retreated from Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment year ice thicknesses, from young, very continental shelf regions of the Chukchi Report (AR4) in 2007 represents the thin ice to first-year floes that may be Sea in August or September, with open scientific consensus view on the causes upwards of 1.0-m (3.3-ft) thick (Burns et water conditions persisting over much and future of climate change. The IPCC al. 1980, p. 100; Zhang et al. 2010, p. of the continental shelf through late AR4 used state-of-the-art Atmosphere- 1729). Depending on wind patterns, a October. In contrast, during the Ocean General Circulation Models variable (but relatively minor) fraction preceding 20 years (1979–1998), broken (GCMs) and a range of possible future of ice that drifts south through the sea-ice habitat persisted over greenhouse gas (GHG) emission Bering Strait could be comprised of continental shelf areas of the Chukchi scenarios to project plausible outcomes some thicker ice floes that originated in Sea through the entire summer (Jay and globally and regionally, including the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas (Kozo et Fischbach 2008, p. 1). projections of temperature and Arctic al. 1987, pp. 193–195). From 1979 to 2007, there was a sea-ice conditions through the 21st Ice melt in the Bering Sea usually general trend toward earlier onset of ice century. begins in late April and accelerates in melt and later onset of freeze-up in 9 of The GCMs use the laws of physics to May, with the edge of the ice moving 10 Arctic regions analyzed by Markus et simulate the main components of the northward until it passes through the al. (2009, pp. 1–14), the exception being climate system (the atmosphere, ocean, Bering Strait, typically in June. The the Sea of Okhotsk. For the entire land surface, and sea ice) and to make Bering Sea remains ice free for the Arctic, the melt season length has projections as to the response of these duration of the summer. Ice continues to increased by about 20 days over the last components to future emissions of retreat northward through the Chukchi 30 years, due to the combined earlier GHGs. The IPCC used simulations from Sea until September, when minimal sea- melt and later freeze-up. The largest about 2 dozen GCMs developed by 17 ice extent is reached. increases, of over 10 days per decade, international modeling centers as the Freeze-up begins in October, with the have been seen for Hudson Bay, the East basis for the AR4 (Randall et al. 2007, ice edge progressing southward across Greenland Sea, and the Laptev/East pp. 596–599). The GCM results are the Chukchi Sea. The ice edge usually Siberian Seas. From 1979 to 2007, there archived as part of the Coupled Model reaches the Bering Strait in November was a general trend toward earlier onset Intercomparison Project–Phase 3 and advances through the Strait in of ice melt and later onset of freeze-up (CMIP3) at the Program for Climate December. The ice edge continues to in both the Bering and Chukchi Seas: Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison move southward across the Bering Sea For the Bering Sea, the onset of ice melt (PCMDI). The CMIP3 GCMs provide until its maximal extent is reached in occurred 1.0 day earlier per decade, projections of future effects that could March. There is considerable year-to- while in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas ice result from climate change, because they year variation in the timing and extent melt occurred 3.5 days earlier per are built on well-known dynamical and of ice retreat and formation (Boveng et decade. The onset of freeze-up in the physical principles, and they plausibly al. 2008, p. 37; Douglas 2010, p. 19). Bering Sea occurred 1.0 day later per simulate many large-scale aspects of Within various regions of the Arctic, decade, while freeze-up in the Chukchi/ present-day conditions. However, the there is substantial variation in the Beaufort Seas occurred 6.9 days later coarse resolution of most current monthly trends of sea ice (Meier et al. per decade (Markus et al. 2009, p. 11). climate models dictates careful 2007, p. 431). In the Bering Sea, Later freeze-up in the Arctic does not application on smaller spatial scales in statistically significant monthly necessarily mean that less seasonal sea heterogeneous regions. reductions in the extent of sea ice over ice forms by winter’s end in the The IPCC AR4 used six ‘‘marker’’ the period 1979–2005 were documented peripheral seas, such as the Bering and scenarios from the Special Report on for March (¥4.8 percent), October Chukchi Seas (Boveng et al. 2008, p. Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Carter et (¥42.9 percent), and November (¥20.3 35). For example, in 2007 (the year al. 2007, p. 160) to develop climate percent), although the overall annual when the record minimal Arctic projections spanning a broad range of decline (¥1.9 percent) is not summer sea-ice extent was recorded), GHG emissions through the end of the statistically significant (Meier et al. the Chukchi Sea did not freeze until 21st century under clearly stated 2007, p. 431). The Bering Sea declines early December and the Bering Sea assumptions about socioeconomic were greatest in October and November, remained largely ice-free until the factors that could influence the the period of early freeze-up. In the middle of December (Boveng et al. 2008, emissions. The six ‘‘marker’’ scenarios Chukchi Sea, statistically significant p. 35). However, rapid cooling and are classified according to their monthly reductions were also advancing of sea ice in late December emissions as ‘‘high’’ (A1F1, A2),

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‘‘medium’’ (A1B and B2) and ‘‘low’’ Excluding models that poorly simulate that may or not be realized. Thus, there (A1T, B1). The SRES made no judgment observational data is also a common are a number of studies in the published as to which of the scenarios were more approach to reducing the spread of sea-ice literature that use the A1B likely to occur, and the scenarios were uncertainty among projections from scenario and can, therefore, be used for not assigned probabilities of occurrence multi-model ensembles. comparative purposes (e.g., Overland (Carter et al. 2007, p. 160). The IPCC The third source of variation arises and Wang 2007; Holland et al. 2010; focused on three of the marker from the range in plausible GHG Wang et al. 2010). Second, both the A1B scenarios—B1, A1B, and A2—for its emissions scenarios. Conditions such as and A2 scenarios project similar synthesis of the climate modeling surface air temperature and sea-ice area declines in hemispheric sea-ice extent efforts, because they represented ‘‘low,’’ are linked in the IPCC climate models out to 2100 (Meehl et al. 2007, Figure ‘‘medium,’’ and ‘‘high,’’ scenarios; this to GHG emissions by the physics of 10.13, p. 771); thus, little new choice stemmed from the constraints of radiation processes. When CO2 is added understanding is gained by using available computer resources that to the atmosphere, it has a long projections from both scenarios (see precluded realizations of all six residence time and is only slowly discussion of Douglas 2010 in scenarios by all modeling centers removed by ocean absorption and other subsequent paragraphs). Third, model (Meehl et al. 2007, p. 753). With regard processes. Based on IPCC AR4 climate projections based on the B1 scenario to these three emissions scenarios, the models, expected global warming— appear to be overly conservative (Meehl IPCC Working Group I report noted: defined as the change in global mean et al. 2007, Figure 10.13, p. 771), in that ‘‘Qualitative conclusions derived from surface air temperature (SAT)—by the sea ice is declining even faster than the these three scenarios are in most cases year 2100 depends strongly on the decline forecasted by the A1B scenario also valid for other SRES scenarios’’ assumed emissions of CO2 and other (see discussion at end of this section). (Meehl et al. 2007, p. 761). It is GHGs. By contrast, warming out to Fourth, current global carbon emissions important to note that the SRES about 2040–2050 will be largely due to appear to be tracking slightly above scenarios do not contain additional emissions that have already occurred (Raupach et al. 2007, Figure 1, p. 10289; climate initiatives (e.g., implementation and those that will occur over the next LeQuere et al. 2009, Figure 1a, p. 2; of the United Nations Framework decade (Meehl 2007, p. 749). Thus, Global Carbon Project 2010 at http:// Convention on Climate Change or the conditions projected to mid-century are www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbon emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol) less sensitive to assumed future budget/09/files/GCP2010_CarbonBudget beyond current mitigation policies emission scenarios. For the second half 2009_29November2010.pdf) or slightly (IPCC 2007, p. 22). The SRES scenarios of the 21st century, however, and below (Manning et al. 2010, Figure 1, p. do, however, have built-in emissions especially by 2100, the choice of the 377) the A1B trajectory at this point in reductions that are substantial, based on emission scenario becomes the major time. It may be reasonable to project this assumptions that a certain amount of source of variation among climate or a higher trend in global carbon technological change and reduction of projections and dominates over natural emissions into the near future (Garnaut emissions would occur in the absence of variability and model-to-model et al. 2008, Figure 5, p. 392; Sheehan climate policies; recent analysis shows differences (IPCC 2007, pp. 44–46). 2008, Figure 2, p. 220; but see caveat by Because the SRES group and the IPCC that two-thirds or more of all the energy van Vuuren et al. 2010). Fifth, there is made no judgment on the likelihood of efficiency improvements and a growing body of opinion that any of the scenarios, and the scenarios decarbonization of energy supply stabilizing GHG emissions at levels well were not assigned probabilities of needed to stabilize GHGs is built into below the A1B scenario (e.g., at 450 occurrence, one option for representing the IPCC reference scenarios (Pielke et parts per million (ppm), equivalent to a the full range of variability in potential al. 2008, p. 531). 2 degree Celsius increase in There are three main contributors to outcomes, would be to evaluate temperature) will be difficult in the divergence in GCM climate projections: projections from all models under all absence of substantial policy-mandated Large natural variations, across-model marker scenarios for which sea-ice mitigation (e.g., Garnaut et al. 2007, p. differences, and the range-in-emissions projections are available to the scientific 398; den Elzen and Ho¨hne 2008, p. 250; scenarios (Hawkins and Sutton 2009, p. community—A2, A1B, and B1. Another Pielke et al. 2008, pp. 531–532; 1096). The first of these, variability from typical procedure for projecting future Macintosh 2009, p. 3; den Elzen et al. natural variation, can be incorporated outcomes is to use an intermediate by averaging the projections over scenario, such as A1B, to predict 2010, p. 314; Tomassini et al. 2010, p. decades, or, preferably, by forming changes, or one intermediate and one 418; Anderson and Bows 2011, p. 20), ensemble averages from several runs of high scenario (e.g., A1B and A2) to largely as a result of continuing high the same model. capture a range of variability. emissions in certain developed The second source of variation is Several factors suggest that the A1B countries, and recent and projected model to model differences in the way scenario may be a particularly growth in the economies and energy that physical processes are incorporated appropriate choice of scenario to use for demands of rapidly developing into the various GCMs. Because of these projections of sea-ice declines in the countries (e.g., Garnaut et al. 2008, p. differences, projections of future climate Arctic and its marginal seas. First, the 392; Auffhammer and Carson 2008, p. 1; conditions depend, to a certain extent, A1B scenario is widely used in Pielke et al. 2008, p. 532; U.S. Energy on the choice of GCMs used. modeling because it is a ‘‘medium’’ Information Administration 2010, pp. Uncertainty in the amount of warming emissions scenario characterized by a 123–124, 128). Because of these factors, out to mid-century is primarily a future world of very rapid economic we conclude that sea-ice projections function of these model-to-model growth, global population that peaks in developed by using the A1B forcing differences. The most common mid-century and declines thereafter, scenario provide an appropriate basis approach to address the uncertainty and rapid introduction of new and more for evaluating potential impacts to biases inherent in individual models is efficient technologies, and development habitat and related impacts to the to use the median or mean outcome of of energy technologies that are balanced Pacific walrus population in the future. several predictive models (a multi- across energy sources, and it contains Our analysis of sea-ice response to model ensemble) for inference. no assumption of mitigation policies global warming within the range of the

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Pacific walrus (Bering and Chukchi The analysis of Douglas (2010, pp. 24, The projected loss of sea ice involves Seas) carefully considered the synthesis 31) yields mid-century projections that uncertainty. In discussing this, Douglas of GCM projections presented by indicate sea-ice extent in the Bering Sea 2010 (p. 11) states, in part: ‘‘Ice-free Douglas (2010). We provide a broad will decline for all months when sea ice conditions in the Chukchi Sea are overview of the methods and findings of has historically been present, i.e., for attained for a 3-month period (August– the report by Douglas (2010), details of October through June. The most October) at the end of the century (fig which are available in the full report. pronounced reductions in Bering Sea 7) with almost complete agreement Douglas (2010, pp. 4–5) quantified ice extent at mid-century in terms of the among models of the SD2 subset (fig 12). sea-ice projections (from the A2 and percent change from baseline conditions Consequently, a higher degree of A1B scenarios) by 18 CMIP3 GCM are expected in the months of June and confidence can accompany hypotheses models prepared for the IPCC fourth November, which reflects an or decisions premised on this outcome reporting period, as well as 2 GCM increasingly early onset of ice-free or and timeframe.’’ Douglas also notes subsets which excluded models that nearly ice-free conditions in the early there is greater confidence in poorly simulated the 1979–2008 summer and later onset of sea-ice projections that the Chukchi Sea will satellite record of Bering and Chukchi development in the fall. In June, the continue to be completely ice covered sea-ice conditions. Analyses focused on projected extent of sea ice is ¥63 during February–April at the end of the annual cycle of sea-ice extent within percent of the 1979–1988 baseline level, century, and that large uncertainties are the range of the Pacific walrus while the projected extent for November prevalent during the melt and freeze population, specifically the continental is approximately is ¥88 percent of the seasons, particularly June, November, shelf waters of the Bering and Chukchi baseline level. By late century, and December (Douglas 2010, p. 11). Seas. Models were selected for the two substantial declines in Bering Sea ice Several other investigations have subsets, respectively, when their extent are projected for all months, with analyzed model projections of sea-ice simulated mean ice extent and losses ranging from 57 percent in April, change in the Bering and Chukchi Seas seasonality during 1979–2008 were to 100 percent loss of sea ice in and reported results that are consistent within two standard deviations (SD2) November (Douglas 2010, p. 31). The with those of Douglas (2010). Wang et and one standard deviation (SD1) of the onset of substantial freezing in the al. (2010, p. 258) investigated sea-ice observed means. In consideration of Bering Sea is projected to be delayed projections to mid-century for the observations of ice-free conditions until January by late century, with little Bering Sea using a subset of models across the Chukchi Sea in recent years or no ice projected to remain in May by selected on the basis of their ability to in late summer, any models that failed the end of the century (Douglas 2010, simulate sea-ice area in the late 20th to simulate at least 1 ice-free month in pp. 8, 24, 31). century. Their projections show an the Chukchi Sea were also excluded Historically, sea-ice cover has average decrease in March–April sea-ice from the Chukchi Sea subset ensembles. persisted, to at least some extent, over coverage of 43 percent by the decade Ice observations and the projections of continental shelf waters of the Chukchi centered on 2050, with a reasonable individual GCMs were pooled over 10- Sea all 12 months of the year, although degree of consistency among models. year periods to integrate natural the extent of sea ice has varied by Boveng et al. (2008, pp. 39–40) analyzed variability (Douglas 2010, p. 5). month. For example, for the 1979–1988 a subset of IPCC AR4 GCM models To quantify projected changes in period, the median extent of sea ice (selected for accuracy in simulating monthly sea-ice extent, Douglas (2010, varied from about 50 percent in observed ice conditions) to evaluate p. 31) compared future monthly sea-ice September to essentially 100 percent spring (April–June) conditions in the projections for the Bering and Chukchi from late November through early May Bering Sea out to 2050. Their analysis Seas at mid-century (2045–2054) and (Douglas 2010, p. 19). A pattern of suggested that by mid-century, a modest late-century (2090–2099) with two extensive sea-ice cover (approaching decrease in the extent of sea ice in the decades from the observational record 100 percent) in late winter and early Bering Sea is expected during the month (1979–1988 and 1999–2008). The spring (February–April) is expected to of April, and that ice cover in May will earliest observational period (1979– persist through the end of the century. remain variable, with some years having 1988), which coincides with a Projections of sea-ice loss during June considerably reduced ice cover. June timeframe during which the Pacific in the Chukchi Sea are relatively sea-ice cover in the Bering Sea since the walrus population was considered to be modest; however, the sea ice is 1970s has been consistently low or occupying most of its historical range projected to retreat rapidly during the absent. Their models project that by (Fay 1982, pp. 7–21), provides a useful month of July (Douglas 2010, p. 12). 2050, ice cover in the Bering Sea will baseline for examining projected Model subset medians project a 2-month essentially disappear in June, with only changes in sea-ice habitats. ice-free season at mid-century and a 4- a rare year when the ice cover exceeds Douglas (2010, p. 7) found that month ice-free season at the end of the 0.05 million sq km (0.03 million sq mi) projected median sea-ice extents under century, centered around the month of (Boveng et al. 2008, pp. 39–40), a both the A1B and A2 forcing scenarios September (Douglas 2010, pp. 8, 22, 24), projection similar to that reported by are qualitatively similar in the Bering with some models showing up to 5 Douglas (2010, p. 24). and Chukchi Seas in all seasons months ice-free by end of the century Boveng et al. (2009, pp. 44–54) used throughout the 21st century. This (Douglas 2010, pp. 12, 22, 24). In the a subset of IPCC AR4 models to further finding is consistent with the generally most recent observational decade (1999– investigate sea-ice coverage in the similar declines in hemispheric sea-ice 2008), the southern extent of the Arctic eastern Bering Sea (the area of greatest extent between the A1B and A2 ice pack has retreated and advanced walrus distribution in the Bering Sea), scenarios out to 2100 (Meehl et al. 2007, through the Bering Strait in the months Bering Strait, and the Chukchi Sea out Figure 10.13, p. 771). Thus, our decision of June and November, respectively. By to 2070. For the eastern Bering Sea, they to focus on ice projections by the A1B the end of the century, these transition projected that sea-ice coverage will forcing scenario (as described above) is months may shift to May (1 month decline in the spring and fall, with fall further substantiated, as there would be earlier) and January (2 months later), declines exceeding those of spring. By little insight gained by considering the respectively (Douglas 2010, pp. 12, 25– 2050, average sea-ice extent in A2 scenario. 26). November and December would be

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approximately 14 percent of the 1980– Effects of Changing Sea-Ice Conditions Island and the Gulf of Anadyr will 1999 mean, while sea-ice extent from on Pacific Walruses likely continue to have adequate ice March to May would be about 70 The Pacific walrus is an ice- cover to support breeding aggregations percent of the 1980–1999 mean. For the dependent species. Walruses are poorly through mid-century, as the extent of Bering Strait region, the model adapted to life in the open ocean and sea ice will still be relatively projections indicated a longer ice-free must periodically haul out to rest. substantial, although slightly period by 2050, largely as a result of Floating pack ice creates habitat from diminished from the current extent decreasing ice coverage in November which breeding behavior is staged (Fay (Douglas 2010, p. 25). Walruses and December. By 2050, they project et al. 1984, p. 81), and it provides a currently wintering in Northern Bristol that the March–May sea-ice extent in platform for calving (Fay 1982, p. 199), Bay will likely shift their distribution the Bering Strait region would be 80 access to offshore feeding areas over the northward in response to the projected percent of the 1980–1999 mean, while continental shelf of the Bering and loss of seasonal pack ice in this region November ice extent would be 20 Chukchi Seas, passive transportation (Douglas 2010, p. 25). By the end of the percent of the mean for that reference among feeding areas (Ray et al. 2006, century, winter sea-ice extent across the period. For the Chukchi Sea, Boveng et pp. 404–407), and isolation from Bering Sea is expected to be greatly al. (2009, pp. 49–50) reported a terrestrial predators and hunters. In this reduced, and the median sea-ice edge is projected reduction in sea-ice extent for section, we first analyze the effects of projected to be farther to the north November by 2050, a slight decline for sea-ice loss on breeding and calving, (Douglas 2010, p. 25). Based on these June by 2070, and a clear reduction for because these are essential life-history projections, core areas of winter November and December by 2070. events that depend on ice in specific abundance and breeding aggregations Several authors note that sea-ice seasons. In the second part of this will likely shift farther north. extent in the Arctic is decreasing at a section, we analyze how the anticipated Potentially, the breeding aggregations rate faster than projected by most IPCC- increasing use of coastal haulouts due to may shift into areas north of the Bering recognized GCMs (Stroeve et al. 2007, p. the loss of sea-ice habitat may cause Strait in the southern Chukchi Sea in 1; Overland and Wang 2007, p. 1; Wang localized prey depletion and affect some years by the end of the century and Overland 2009, p. 1; Wang et al. walrus foraging, as well as increase their (Douglas 2010, pp. 24, 28). 2010, p. 258), suggesting that GCM susceptibility to trampling, predation, Although the location of winter projections of 21st century sea-ice losses and hunting. breeding aggregations will likely shift in response to projected reductions in sea- may be conservative (Douglas 2010, p. Effects of Sea-Ice Loss on Breeding and ice extent, sea-ice platforms for herds of 11, and citations therein) and that ice- Calving females will persist during the breeding free conditions in September in the season; therefore, we conclude that Arctic may likely be achieved sooner Breeding suitable conditions for breeding will than projected by most models using the During the January-to-March breeding likely persist into the foreseeable future. A1B forcing scenario. In describing the season, walruses congregate in the We have no information that indicates ‘‘faster than forecast’’ situation, Douglas Bering Sea pack ice (Fay 1982, pp. 8– that the specific location of the ice is notes that the minimum ice extents in 11, 193; Fay et al. 1984, pp. 89–99), important, and sea ice is expected to the Arctic for the summers of 2007– where the ice creates the stage for remain over shallow, food-rich areas. 2009 were well below the previous breeding. Females congregate in herds Therefore, we do not consider changes record set in 2005, and concurs that on the ice and the bulls station in sea-ice extent during the winter serious consideration must be given to themselves in the water alongside the breeding season to be a threat now or in the possibility that the CMIP3 GCM herd and perform visual and acoustical the foreseeable future. projections collectively yield displays (Fay 1982, p. 193). Breeding conservative time frames for sea-ice aggregations have been reported Calving losses in this century (Douglas 2010, p. southwest of St. Lawrence Island, Female walruses typically give birth 11); i.e., the projected changes he Alaska, south of Nunivak Island, Alaska, to a single calf in May on sea ice, shortly reports for the range of the Pacific and south of the Chukotka Peninsula in before or during the northward spring walrus may occur sooner than the the Gulf of Anadyr, Russia (Fay 1982, p. migration through the Bering Strait. By model projections indicate. 21; Mymrin et al. 1990, pp. 105–113). It mid-century, ice extent in the Bering In conclusion, the actual loss of sea is unlikely that breeding is tied to a Strait Region is projected to be reduced ice in recent years in the Arctic has been specific geographic location, because of during the May calving season, and by faster than previously forecast, current the large seasonal and inter-annual end of century, the Bering Sea is GHG emissions are at or above those variability in sea-ice cover in the Bering projected to be largely sea-ice-free expected under the A1B scenario that Sea at this time of year. Fay et al. (1984, during the month of May (Douglas 2010, we (and most scientists studying Arctic p. 80) indicate probable changes in the p. 25). As is the case with breeding, the sea ice) relied on, models converge in locations of breeding aggregations based birth of a calf and the natal period in the predicting the extended absence of sea on differing amounts of sea ice. We weeks that follow are probably not tied ice in the Chukchi Sea at the end of the anticipate that seasonal pack ice will to specific geographic locations. It is century (Douglas 2010, pp. 12, 29), and continue to form across large areas of reasonable to assume that suitable ice there has been a marked loss of sea ice the northern Bering Sea, primarily in conditions for calving and post-calving over the Chukchi Sea in the past decade. January–March, and will persist in most activity on sea ice will persist into the The best scientific information available years through April (Douglas 2010, p. foreseeable future, even though the gives us a high level of confidence that 25). location of favorable ice conditions is despite some uncertainty among the The distribution of walruses during likely to shift further to the north over models, the projections are generally the winter breeding season will likely time. consistent and provide a reliable basis shift in the future in response to We conclude that changes in sea ice for us to conclude that sea-ice loss in changing patterns of sea-ice during the spring calving season (April– the range of the Pacific walrus has a development. Core areas of winter May) are not a threat now or in the high likelihood of continuing. abundance south of Saint Lawrence foreseeable future. We have no

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information that indicates the specific century (2045–2054), ice-free conditions ice as a foraging platform. Indirect location of the ice is important, and sea over most continental shelf regions of effects of global climate change on ice would remain over shallow, food- the Chukchi Sea are projected to persist walrus prey species in this region are rich areas. for 2 months (August–September). By considered separately below in the late century, ice-free (or nearly sea-ice- section: Effects of Global Climate Summary of Effects of Sea-Ice Loss on free) conditions may persist for 3 Change on Pacific Walrus Prey Species. Breeding and Calving months, and extend to 4 to 5 months in Most of the Pacific walrus population Breeding and calving activities utilize some years (Douglas 2010, pp. 8, 12, 22, (adult females, calves, juveniles, and ice as a platform in the months of 27). The average number of ice-free males that have not remained at coastal January through May. Based on our months in the Bering Sea is projected to haulouts in the Bering Sea) migrate current understanding of these increase from the approximately 5.5 northward in spring following the activities, the specific location of the ice months currently, to approximately 6.5 retreating pack ice through the Bering is not important. Although sea-ice and 8.5 months at mid- and end of Strait to summer feeding areas over the extent is projected to move northward century, respectively (Douglas 2010, pp. continental shelf in the Chukchi Sea. over time, sea ice is expected to persist 12, 27). Historically, sufficient pack-ice habitat in these months and be available for has persisted over continental shelf these life history functions. Therefore, Observed and Expected Responses of regions of the Chukchi Sea through the we do not consider changes in sea-ice Pacific Walruses to Declining Sea-Ice summer months such that walruses in extent to be a threat to breeding or Habitats the Chukchi Sea did not rely on coastal calving activities now or in the Adult male walruses make greater use haulouts with great frequency or in large foreseeable future. of coastal haulouts during ice-free numbers. Over the past decade, seasons than do females and dependent Effects of Increasing Dependence on however, sea ice has begun to retreat young, and consequently, have a Coastal Haulouts Due to Sea-Ice Loss north beyond shallow continental shelf broader distribution during ice-free waters of the Chukchi Sea in late We begin this discussion with a seasons. Several thousand bulls remain summer. This has caused walruses to summary of sea-ice loss projections and in the Bering Sea through the ice-free relocate to coastal haulouts, which they recent observations. We follow with an summer months, where they make use as sites for resting between foraging analysis of the potential effects to foraging excursions from coastal excursions. The number of walruses Pacific walrus from an increasing haulouts in Bristol Bay, Alaska and the using land-based haulouts along the dependence on coastal haulouts, Gulf of Anadyr, Russia. The size of these Chukchi Sea coast during the summer particularly in the Chukchi Sea, and haulouts has changed over time; for months, and the duration of haulout examine the use of coastal haulouts by example, at Round Island, the number use, has increased substantially over the Atlantic walrus as a potential analog for of hauled out walruses grew from about past decade, with up to several tens of Pacific walrus coastal haulout use. We 3,000 animals in the late 1950s to about thousands of animals hauling out at analyze potential effects of increased 12,000 in the early 1980s (Jay and Hills some locations along the coast of Russia dependency on coastal haulouts 2005, p. 193), and has subsequently during ice-free periods (Ovsyanikov et resulting from the loss of sea-ice declined to 2,000–5,000 animals in the al. 2007, pp. 1–2; Kochnev 2008, p. 17– habitats. Some of the effects to Pacific past decade (Sell and Weiss 2010, p. 20, Kavry et al. 2008, p. 248–251). walrus that we have identified as a 12). The reasons for changes in walrus Coastal haulouts have also begun to result of increasing dependence on haulout use in the Bering Sea are poorly form along the Arctic coast of Alaska in coastal haulouts (i.e., trampling, understood. Factors that could affect use recent years (2007, 2009, and 2010) predation, and hunting) would typically of haulouts include; prey abundance when sea ice retreated north of the be discussed under other Factors. These and distribution, walrus density, and continental shelf in late summer effects are discussed in this section in physical alteration or chronic (Service 2010, unpublished data). The the context of responses to declining sea disturbance at the haulouts (Jay and occupation of terrestrial haulouts along ice; however, it should be noted that we Hills 2005, p. 198). Tagged males the Chukchi Sea coast for extended also discuss predation under Factor C traveled up to 130 km (81 mi) to feed periods of time in late summer and fall (Disease or Predation), and hunting from haulout sites in Bristol Bay (Jay represents a relatively new and under Factor B (Overutilization for and Hills 2005, p. 198). Because the significant change from traditional Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or benthic densities are poorly habitat use patterns. The consequences Educational Purposes) and Factor D documented, it is not possible to link of this observed and projected shift in (The Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory the changes in haulout use by males to habitat use patterns is the primary focus Mechanisms). prey depletion. However, non-use of of our analysis. areas with shallow depths closer to the As sea ice withdraws from offshore Summary of Sea-Ice Loss Projections haulouts suggests prey was not adequate feeding areas over the continental shelf Sea ice has historically persisted over for effective foraging (Jay and Hills of the Chukchi Sea, walruses are continental shelf regions of the Chukchi 2005, p. 198). Males have an advantage expected to become increasingly Sea through the entire melt season. Over over females in that they are bigger and dependent on coastal haulouts as a the past decade, sea ice has begun to stronger and have no responsibilities foraging base during the summer retreat beyond shallow continental shelf related to the care of calves, and thus, months. With a delay the onset of ice waters in late summer. The recent trend can travel as far as necessary to locate formation in the fall, and in the absence of rapid ice loss from continental shelf food. Currently, males utilize terrestrial of sea-ice cover in the southern Chukchi regions of the Chukchi Sea in July and haulouts for 5 months or more (Jay and Sea and northern Bering Sea in the August is projected to persist, and will Hills 2005, p. 198). It is unlikely that the summer, walruses will likely remain at likely accelerate in the future (Douglas projected increase in ice-free months in coastal haulouts for longer periods of 2010, p. 12). The onset of ice formation the Bering Sea will alter male behavior time until sea ice reforms in the fall or in the fall over continental shelf regions or survival rates at terrestrial haulouts early winter. By the end of the century, in the Chukchi and Bering Seas is because the adult males that utilize dependence on Chukchi Sea coastal expected to be delayed, and by mid- Bering Sea haulouts do not rely on sea haulouts by mixed groups of walruses

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for resting and as a foraging base may 176–177; Grebmeier et al. 2006b, p. (National Snow and Ice Data Center, extend from July into early winter 346), and many coastal areas which 2007). Ovsyanikov et al. (2007, pp. 2–3) (December–January), when there may be provide the physical features of a reported that many of the walruses up to a 2-month delay in freeze-up suitable haulout, may not have arriving at Wrangel Island, Russia, in (Douglas 2010, pp. 12, 22). This sufficient food sources. A visual August 2007 were emaciated and weak, expectation is consistent with comparison of areas of high benthic some too exhausted to flee or defend observations made by Russian scientists production (e.g., Springer et al. 1996, p. themselves from polar bears patrolling that some of the coastal haulouts along 209; Dunton et al. 2005, p. 3468; the coast. The authors attributed the the southern Chukchi Sea coast of Grebmeier et al. 2006b, p. 346) and poor condition of these animals to the Russia have persisted in recent years areas that have supported large rapid retreat of sea ice off of the shelf into December (Kochnev 2010, pers. terrestrial haulouts of walruses (e.g., in July to waters too deep for walrus to comm.). Cape Inkigur, Cape Serdtse-Kamen) feed. They also noted that the exhausted Increased dependence on coastal indicates that walruses have historically walruses could not find enough food haulouts creates the following potential selected sites near areas of very high near the island for recovery (Ovsyanikov impacts for walruses: Changes in benthic productivity. Benthic et al. 2007, p. 3). foraging patterns and prey depletion; productivity along part of the western Females with dependent young are increased vulnerability to mortality or shore of Alaska (i.e., along the eastern likely to be disproportionally affected injury due to trampling, especially for edge of the Chukchi Sea) is low because by prey depletion and increased calves, juveniles, and females; greater of the nutrient-poor waters of the Alaska reliance on coastal haulouts as a vulnerability to mortality or injury from Coastal Current, especially for instance, foraging base. Females with dependent predation; and greater vulnerability to in the Kotzebue Sound (Dunton et al. young require two to three times the mortality due to hunting. Each is 2005, p. 3468; Dunton et al. 2006, p. amount of food needed by nonlactating discussed in detail below. 369; Grebmeier et al. 2006b, p. 346). females (Fay 1982, p. 159). Over the past decade, females and dependent calves Changes in Foraging Patterns and Prey Consequently, the number of sites with have responded to the loss of sea ice in Depletion adequate food resources to support large aggregations of walruses is likely late summer by occupying coastal The loss of seasonal pack ice from limited. haulouts along the coast of Chukotka, continental shelf areas of the Chukchi A consequence of prey depletion Russia, and more recently (2007–2010) Sea is expected to reduce access to could be an increased energetic cost to haulouts along the coast of Alaska. traditional foraging areas across the locate sufficient food resources Females typically nurse their calves continental shelf and increase (Sheffield and Grebmeier 2009, p. 770; between short foraging forays from sea- competition among individuals for food Jay et al. 2010b, pp. 9–10). Energetic ice platforms situated over productive resources in areas close to haulouts. costs to walruses will increase if they forage areas (Ray et al. 2006, pp. 404– Information regarding the density of have to travel greater distances to locate 407). Drifting ice provides walrus walrus prey items accessible from prey, or foraging efficiency is reduced as passive transport and access to new coastal haulouts is limited; however, a consequence of lower prey densities foraging areas with minimal effort. In some haulouts have supported sizable (Sheffield and Grebmeier 2009, p. 770; 2007, radio-tagged females traveled on concentrations of animals (up to several Jay et al. 2010b, pp. 9–10). Observations average, 30.7 km (19 mi) on foraging tens of thousands of animals) for by Russian scientists at haulouts along trips from several haulouts located periods of up to 4 months in recent the coast of Chukotka (along the western along the Chukotka coastline (Kochnev years (Kochnev 2010, pers. comm.). side of the Chukchi Sea) in recent years et al. 2008, p. 265). Although we do not Many walrus prey species are slow suggest that rates of calf mortality and know the average distance of foraging growing and potentially vulnerable to poor body condition of adult females are trips taken from an ice platform, in overexploitation, and intensive foraging inversely related to the persistence of general, we would expect them to be from coastal haulouts by large numbers sea ice over offshore feeding areas and relatively short, because when the ice is of walruses may eventually result in the length of time that animals occupy over productive prey areas, the female localized prey depletion (Ray et al. coastal haulouts (Nikiforov et al. 2007, only has to dive to the bottom and back 2006, p. 412). A walrus requires pp. 1–2; Ovsyanikov et al. 2007, pp. 1– up to the ice (Ray et al. 2006, pp. 406– approximately 29 to 74 kg (64 to 174 3; Kochnev 2008, pp. 17–20; Kochnev et 407). Because calves do not have the lbs) of food per day (Fay 1982, p. 160), al. 2008, p. 265). Over time, poor body swimming endurance of adults, if and may consume 4,000 to 6,000 clams condition could lead to lower sufficient prey is not located within the in one feeding bout (Ray et al. 2006, pp. reproductive rates, greater susceptibility swimming distance of the calf, the 408, 412); therefore, when large to disease or predation, and ultimately female either may not be able to obtain numbers of walruses are concentrated higher mortality rates (Kochnev 2004, adequate nutrition or the calf may be on coastal haulouts, a large amount of pp. 285–286; Kochnev et al. 2008, p. abandoned when the female travels to prey (whether clams or other types of 265; Sheffield and Grebmeier 2009, p. locations beyond the swimming prey) must be available to support them. 770). capability of the calf (Cooper et al. 2006, The presence of large numbers of The energetic cost of swimming a long pp. 98–102). Lack of adequate prey for walruses at a coastal haulout over an distance is demonstrated by the females could eventually lead to extended time period could eventually observations made in the summer of reduced body condition, lower lead to localized prey depletion. The 2007, when the melt season in the reproductive success, and potentially most likely response to localized prey Chukchi Sea began slowly, and then death. Abandoned calves could face depletion will be for walruses to seek sea-ice retreat accelerated rapidly in increased mortality from drowning, out and colonize other terrestrial July and August. The continental shelf starvation, or predation. haulouts that have suitable foraging of the Chukchi Sea was sea-ice-free by In summary, by the end of the 21st areas (Jay and Hills 2005, p. 198). mid-August; the ice edge eventually century, ice-free conditions are expected However, prey densities along the retreated hundreds of miles north of the to persist across the continental shelf of Arctic coast are not uniform (Grebmeier shelf, and ice did not re-form over the the Chukchi Sea for a period of up to et al. 1989, p. 257; Feder et al. 1994, pp. continental shelf until late October several months (Douglas 2010). Based

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on the observed responses of walruses population-level effect on the Pacific In addition, sources of disturbance are to periods of low ice cover in the walrus. Our concern is based on expected to be greater at terrestrial Chukchi Sea in recent years, we expect projections of continued and more haulouts than in offshore pack ice walruses to become increasingly extensive sea-ice loss that will force the habitats, because the level of human dependent on coastal haulouts as a animals onto land. Therefore, we activity such as hunting, fishing, foraging base, with animals restricted to conclude that loss of sea-ice habitat, boating, and air traffic is far greater coastal haulouts for most of the summer leading to dependence on coastal along the coast. Haulout abandonment and into the fall and early winter. haulouts and localized prey depletion, has been documented from these Walruses have the ability to use land in will contribute to other negative impacts sources (Fay et al. 1984; p. 114; addition to ice as a resting site and associated with sea-ice loss, and is a Kochnev 2004, pp. 285–286). There is foraging base, which will provide them threat to the Pacific walrus in the also a greater chance of disturbance alternate, if not optimal (as explained foreseeable future. from terrestrial animals (Kochnev 2004, p. 286). As sea ice declines, and both above), resting habitat. However, given Increased Vulnerability to Disturbances polar bears and walruses are the concentration of large numbers of and Trampling animals in relatively small areas, the increasingly forced onto land bordering large amount of prey needed to sustain Another consequence of greater the Chukchi Sea, we anticipate that each walrus, and the increasing length reliance on coastal haulouts is increased there will be greater interaction between of time coastal haulouts will have to be levels of disturbances and increased the two species, especially during the used due to sea-ice loss, the increased rates of mortalities and injuries summer. We expect that one outcome of dependence on coastal haulouts is associated with trampling. Walruses increased interactions will be increased expected to result in increased often flee land or ice haulouts in walrus mortality due to predation competition for food resources in areas response to disturbances. Disturbance (discussed below). Of equal, or more accessible from the coastal haulouts. can come from a variety of sources, importance than predation is the Because of the energetic demands of either anthropogenic (e.g., hunters, disturbance caused at a haulout through lactation and limited mobility of calves, airplanes, ships) or natural (e.g., the arrival or presence of a polar bear, female walruses with dependent young predators) (Fay et al. 1984, pp. 114–118, which can cause stampeding. Repeated are likely to be disproportionally Kochnev 2004, p. 286). Haulout stampeding also increases energy affected by changes in habitat use abandonment represents an increase in expenditure and stress levels, and may energy expenditure and stress, and patterns. Because near-shore food cause walruses to abandon the haulout disturbance events at densely packed resources are unlikely to be able to (COSEWIC 2006, p. 25). coastal haulouts can result in intra- support the current population, Losses that can occur when large specific trauma and mortalities walruses will be required to swim numbers of walruses use terrestrial (COSEWIC 2006, pp. 25–26). Although farther to obtain prey, which will haulouts are illustrated by observations disturbance-related mortalities at all- increase energetic costs. Accordingly, in 2007, along the coast of Chukotka, male haulouts in the Bering Sea are near-shore prey depletion will likely Russia. In response to summer sea-ice relatively uncommon (Fay and Kelly result in a population decline over time. loss in 2007, walruses began to arrive at 1980, p. 244; Kochnev 2004, p. 285), the It is unlikely that the projected increase coastal haulouts in July, a month earlier situation at mixed haulouts is different; in ice-free months in the Bering Sea will than previously recorded (Kochnev because of their smaller size, calves, 2008, pp. 17–20). Coastal aggregations alter the behavior or survival rates of juveniles, and females are more ranged in size from 4,500 up to 40,000 males at terrestrial haulouts because susceptible to trampling injuries and animals (Ovsyanikov et al. 2007, pp. 1– these males do not rely on sea ice as a mortalities (Fay and Kelly 1980, pp. 2; Kochnev 2008, p. 17–20, Kavry et al. foraging platform. In addition, males 226, 244). Females likely avoid using 2008, p. 248–251). Hunters from the have an advantage over females in that terrestrial haulouts because their Russian coastal villages of Vankarem they are bigger and stronger and have no offspring are vulnerable to predation and Ryrkaipii reported more than 1,000 responsibilities related to the care of and trampling (Nikiforov et al. 2007, pp. walrus carcasses (mostly calves of the calves, and thus, can travel as far as 1–2; Ovsyanikov et al. 2007, pp. 1–3; year and aborted fetuses) at coastal necessary to forage. Kochnev 2008, pp. 17–20; Kochnev et haulouts near the communities in The degree to which depletion of food al. 2008, p. 265). September 2007 (Nikiforov et al. 2007, resources near coastal haulouts will When walruses are disturbed on ice p. 1; Kochnev 2008, pp. 17–20). Noting limit population size will depend on a floes, escape into the water is relatively the near absence of calves amongst the variety of factors, including: The easy because fewer animals are remaining animals, Kochnev (2008, pp. location of coastal walrus haulouts, the concentrated in one area. In 17–20) estimated that most of the 2007 number of animals utilizing the comparison, aggregations of walruses on cohort using the site had been lost. haulouts, the duration of time walruses land are often very large in number, Approximately 1,500 walrus carcasses occupy the haulouts, and the robustness densely packed, and ‘‘layered’’ several (predominately adult females) were also of the prey base within range of those animals deep (Nikiforov et al. 2007, p. reported near Cape Dezhnev in late haulouts. However, it is highly unlikely 2). The presence of some large males in October (Kochnev 2007, pers. comm.). that the current population can be groups using Chukchi Sea coastal Russian investigators estimate that sustained from coastal haulouts alone. haulouts increases the danger to calves, between 3,000 and 10,000 animals died In particular, females and their calves juveniles, and females. Consequently, along the Chukotka coastline during the will be susceptible to the increased the probability of direct mortality or summer and fall of 2007, primarily from energetic demands of foraging from injury due to trampling during trampling associated with disturbance coastal haulouts. We do not anticipate stampedes is greater at terrestrial events at the haulouts (Kochnev 2010, effects to males using coastal haulouts haulouts than it is on pack ice (USFWS pers. comm.). in the Bering Sea, because their current 1994, p. 12). Also, whether on ice or Relatively few large mortality events behavior can continue unaltered into land, calves may be abandoned as a at coastal haulouts have been the future. We do not have evidence that result of disturbance to a haulout (Fay documented in the past, but they have prey depletion is currently having a et al. 1984, p. 118). occurred (Fay 1982, p. 226). For

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example, Fay and Kelly (1980, p. 230) by the dispersal of smaller groups of the new haulouts have responded by examined several hundred walrus animals across a wide expanse of sea ice developing hunting restrictions to limit carcasses at coastal haulouts on St. will be lost during periods of ice-free or disturbances to resting animals (Patrol Lawrence Island and the Punuk Islands nearly ice-free conditions. Significant 2008, p. 1; Kavry 2010, pers. comm.; in the fall of 1978. Approximately 15 mortality events from trampling have Kochnev 2010 pers. comm.). See the percent of those carcasses were aborted been documented at large haulouts, and section on Subsistence Hunting in fetuses, 24 percent were calves, and the we anticipate that they will continue Factor B below, for further information. others were older animals (mostly with much greater frequency into the Summary of the Effects of Sea-Ice Loss females) ranging in age from 1 to 37 foreseeable future, resulting in increased on Pacific Walruses years old. The principal cause of death mortality, particularly of calves and was trampling, possibly from females. Therefore, we conclude that The Pacific walrus is an ice- disturbance-related stampedes or disturbances and trampling at haulouts dependent species. Changes in the battling bulls. As walruses become is a threat to the Pacific walrus now and extent, volume, and timing of the sea-ice increasingly dependent on coastal in the foreseeable future. melt and onset of freezing in the Bering haulouts, interactions with humans and and Chukchi Seas have been Increased Vulnerability to Predation and predators are expected to increase and documented and described earlier in Hunting mortality events are likely to become this finding, there are reliable increasingly common. Long-term or As Pacific walruses become more projections that more extensive changes chronic levels of disturbance related dependent on coastal haulouts, they will occur in the foreseeable future. We mortalities at coastal haulouts are likely will become more susceptible to expect these changes in sea ice will to have a more significant population predation and hunting (Kochnev 2004, cause significant changes in the effect over time. p. 286). Although hunting and predation distribution and habitat-use patterns of We recognize that Atlantic walruses are discussed separately below (see Pacific walruses. At this time we (including females and calves) utilize Factors B and C, respectively), we also anticipate that breeding behavior in coastal haulouts to a greater extent than consider them here due to their winter and calving in the early spring Pacific walruses, foraging from shore relationship to increased loss of sea-ice will not be impacted by expected along a relatively narrow coastal shelf; habitat. changes to sea-ice conditions, although a situation that is similar to what Pacific Because of their large size and tusks, the locations where these events occur walrus may experience in the future adult walruses are much less will most likely change as the location during ice-free months in the Chukchi susceptible to predation than are young of available sea ice shifts to the north. Sea. However, Atlantic walrus occupy animals or females. Females likely avoid With the loss of summer sea ice, the an area with abundant remote islands using terrestrial haulouts because their most obvious change, which has already that are free or nearly free from offspring are vulnerable to predation been observed, will be a greater disturbance from humans or terrestrial (Kochnev 2004, p. 286; Ovsyanikov et dependence on terrestrial haulouts by mammals. In essence, their insular al. 2007, pp. 1–4; Kelly 2009, p. 302). both sexes and all age groups. Although habitats function in a manner analogous Apparently, some polar bear routinely walruses of both sexes are capable of to the pack ice of the Pacific walrus, rush herds to cause a stampede, using terrestrial haulouts, historically, providing a refugium from disturbance. expecting that some calves will be left adult males have used terrestrial In contrast, when Pacific walruses are behind (Nikulin 1941; Popove 1958, haulouts, particularly in the Bering Sea, restricted to terrestrial haulouts, they 1960; as cited in Fay et al. 1984, p. 119). to a much greater extent than females, face disturbance from a variety of As sea ice declines in the foreseeable calves, and juveniles. The loss of terrestrial predators and scavengers, future, increased use of terrestrial summer sea ice means that walruses of including bears, wolverines, wolves, habitats by both polar bears and both sexes, but females and their young and feral dogs, and higher levels of walruses will likely lead to increased in particular, will be using coastal anthropogenic disturbances, because interaction between them, and most haulouts for longer periods of time. This their haulouts are at the edge of likely an increase in mortality, change is particularly notable in the continental land masses and there are particularly of calves. We conclude that Chukchi Sea, which has historically had very few islands in the Bering and loss of sea ice, which will force sufficient sea ice in the summer so that Chukchi Seas. Sea ice, which has increased overlap between these two females and calves could remain over typically acted as a refugium from species, will increase mortality from the shallow continental shelf disturbance for Pacific walruses, polar bears through direct take or throughout the summer. Since particularly for females and young in indirect take due to trampling during approximately 2005, the Chukchi Sea the Chukchi Sea, will be lost entirely, or stampedes. See the section on predation has become ice-free or nearly so during almost entirely, for increasingly long in Factor C below, for further part of the summer. This condition is time periods annually in the foreseeable information. projected to increase over time, and may future. Therefore, although use of Large concentrations of walruses on occur faster than forecast. The coastal haulouts is a form of adaptability shore for longer periods of time could consequences of this shift from sea ice available to Pacific walruses, it comes result in increased harvest levels if the to increasing use of land include: Risk with negative impacts that are not terrestrial haulouts form near coastal of localized prey depletion; increased associated with coastal haulouts for villages and environmental conditions energetic costs to reach prey, resulting Atlantic walruses. allow access to haulouts. Kochnev in decreased body condition; calf In summary, we anticipate that Pacific (2004, pp. 285–286) notes that many of abandonment; increased mortality from walruses will become increasingly the haulouts along the Chukotka coast stampedes, especially to females, dependent on coastal haulouts as sea ice are situated near coastal villages, and juveniles, and calves; and potentially retreats earlier off the continental shelf hunting activities at the haulouts can increased exposure to predation and and the Bering and Chukchi Seas result in stampedes and cause hunting. These events are expected to become ice-free for increasingly longer movements from one haulout to reduce survivorship. periods of time. The protection another. Some communities in As large numbers of animals are normally provided to females and calves Chukotka situated in close proximity to concentrated at coastal haulouts, prey

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may be locally depleted, and greater Pacific walrus population. These al. 2010b, p. 40). At the end of 21st distances will be required to obtain it. stressors include: localized prey century, the probability of Pacific Although males at haulouts in the depletion; increased energetic costs to walruses becoming vulnerable, rare, or Bering Sea function for several months reach prey, resulting in decreased body extirpated in both the worst case each year from terrestrial haulouts, condition; calf abandonment; increased scenario and the normative run are females with calves do not typically use mortality from stampedes, especially to essentially equal, at about 40 percent; an terrestrial haulouts, and we expect the females, juveniles, and calves; and outcome that is due to the projected loss of sea ice to have a greater impact increased exposure to predation and amount of sea-ice loss being basically on them through the higher energetic hunting. Because the Pacific walrus the same under the worst case and cost of obtaining food. It is likely that range is large, and the animals are not normative case by the end of the these factors will lead to a population all in the same place at the same time, century. We note, however, that the decline over time, as fewer walruses can not all stressors are likely to affect the models and emissions scenarios used by be supported by the resources available entire population in a given year. the IPCC in 2007 were the basis for this from terrestrial haulouts. In the However, all stressors represent analysis. Thus, it is possible that the foreseeable future, as the duration of potential sources of increased mortality ‘‘worst case scenario’’ reflects the ‘‘faster ice-free periods over offshore over the current condition, in which than forecast’’ loss of sea ice that may be continental shelf regions of the Chukchi these stressors occur infrequently. In the realized if sea-ice loss continues on the Sea increases from 1 to up to 5 months foreseeable future, as the frequency of current downward trend that began in (July through November), we expect the sea-ice loss in the summer and fall over 1979 (National Snow and Ice Data effects of prey depletion near terrestrial the continental shelves increases to a Center, 2010). Regardless of which haulouts will be heightened. near-annual event and the length of time trajectory will actually occur, the Periodic ice-free conditions, as are ice is absent over the continental shelf modeling efforts show that the future currently occurring, are expected to lead increases from 1 to up to 5 months, we status of the Pacific walrus is linked to to higher mortality rates, primarily expect the effects on walruses to be sea ice, which already is declining through trampling at haulouts when heightened and a greater percentage of substantially, and more rapidly than walruses congregate in large numbers. the population to be affected. Increased previously projected. Although of concern, if these events direct and indirect mortality, Effects of Global Climate Change on happen sporadically, as has been the particularly of calves, juveniles, and Pacific Walrus Prey Species case in the past, the population may be females, will result in a declining able to recover between harsh years. population over time. Consequently, we The shallow, ice-covered waters of the Although trampling mortalities have conclude that the destruction, Bering and Chukchi Seas provide been documented in the past, increasing modification, and curtailment of sea-ice habitat that supports some of the highest use of terrestrial haulouts, the higher habitat is a threat to the Pacific walrus. benthic biomass in the world probability of disturbance occurring at (Grebmeier et al. 2006a, p. 1461; Ray et these haulouts, and in the near-term, the Outcome of Bayesian Network Analyses al. 2006, p. 404). Sea-ice algae, pelagic very large numbers of animals using Both the Service and USGS Bayesian (open ocean) primary productivity, and particular haulouts, increases the network analyses (Garlich-Miller et al. the benthos (organisms that live on or in probability that mortality from 2011; Jay et al. 2010b) considered the sea floor) are tightly linked through trampling will become a more regular changes in sea ice projected through the the sedimentation of organic particles event. 21st century. In both cases, the results (Grebmeier et al. 2006b, p. 339). Sea-ice The increasing reliance of both polar indicate that expected loss of sea ice is algae provide a highly concentrated and bears and walruses on terrestrial an important risk factor for Pacific high-quality food source for plankton environments during ice free periods walrus population status over time. The food webs in the spring, which will likely result in increased USGS analysis deals more directly with translates to high-quality food for the interactions between these two species. projected outcomes of the Pacific walrus benthos such as clams (Grebmeier et al. Polar bear predation and associated population, including the influence of 2006b, p. 339; McMahon et al. 2006, pp. disturbances at densely crowded coastal sea-ice loss under different potential 2–11; Gradinger 2009, p. 1211). Because haulouts will likely contribute to conditions (Jay et al. 2010b, p. 40). For zooplankton, which also feed on the increased mortality levels, particularly the normative sea ice run (see Jay et al. algae, have correspondingly low of calves, and may displace animals 2010b for details), the probability of populations at this time in the spring, from preferred feeding areas. Hunting Pacific walruses becoming vulnerable, much of the primary productivity of activity at coastal haulouts does not rare, or extirpated increases over time, algae falls to the sea floor, where it is appear to be a significant source of from approximately 22 percent in 2050, available to the benthic invertebrates mortality at the present time, but may to about 35 percent by 2075, and 40 (Grebmeier et al. 2006b, p. 339). become more of a factor in the future. percent in 2095 (Jay et al. 2010b, p. 40). Spatial distribution and abundance in Local hunting restrictions at coastal A ‘‘worst case’’ influence run was also biomass in benthic habitat across the haulouts have been established in some evaluated. For the worst case, model Bering and Chukchi Seas is influenced communities in Chukotka to reduce outputs were selected that have both the by a variety of ecological, disturbance-related mortalities. The greatest number of ice-free months and oceanographic, and geomorphic efficacy of efforts to mitigate sources of the least ice extent for the Bering and features. In the subarctic region of the anthropogenic disturbances at coastal Chukchi Seas and, therefore, represent Bering Sea (from the Bering Strait south walrus haulouts (including hunting, the worst possible situation. The to latitude 50 degrees), benthic boating and air traffic) will influence the outcome for the worst case influence organisms are preyed upon by demersal degree to which these factors will affect run for sea ice indicated that the fish (living near the bottom of the water the Pacific walrus population. See probability of Pacific walruses becoming column) and epifaunal invertebrates Factors B and C for further discussion vulnerable, rare, or extirpated (those organisms living on top of the sea on harvest and predation. approximately doubles at mid-century floor rather than in it), whose In conclusion, the loss of sea-ice to 40 percent, and reaches distribution is limited to the north by habitat creates several stressors on the approximately 45 percent at 2075 (Jay et cold water (less than 0 °C (32 °F))

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resulting from seasonal sea-ice cover, the thermal dynamics of ocean 2007, p. 2901). When ice is present from forming a temperature-mediated conditions may affect walrus indirectly late March to May (as occurs now), cold ecological boundary. In the absence of through impacts to their prey base. surface temperatures, thinning ice, and demersal fish and predatory Changes to density, abundance, low-salinity melt water suppress wind invertebrates, benthic-feeding whales, distribution, food quality, and species of mixing, and cause the water column to walrus, and sea-birds are the primary benthic invertebrates may occur stratify, creating conditions that consumers in the Arctic region of the primarily through changes in habitat promote a phytoplankton bloom. The Bering Sea (Grebmeier et al. 2006b, pp. related to sea ice. burst of phytoplankton, seeded in part 1461–1463). Walruses are the top predator of a by ice algae, persists until ocean Within the Arctic region of the Bering relatively simple food web in which the nutrients are drawn down. Because it is Sea, marginal sea-ice zones and areas of primary constituents are bacteria, sea- early in the season and water polynyas appear to be ‘‘hot spots’’ of ice algae, phytoplankton (tiny floating temperatures are cold, zooplankton high benthic diversity and productivity plants), and benthic invertebrates populations are still low. Consequently, (Grebmeier and Cooper 1995, p. 4439). (Horner 1976, p. 179; Lowry and Frost the pulse of phytoplankton production Benthic biomass is particularly high in 1981, p. 820; Grebmeier and Dunton is not consumed by zooplankton, but the northern Bering Sea, the southern 2000, p. 65; Dunton et al. 2006, p. 370; instead sinks to the sea floor, where it Chukchi Sea, and the Gulf of Anadyr. Aydin and Mueter 2007, p. 2507). Sea provides abundant food for the benthos However, the high diversity and ice is important to the Arctic food webs (Coyle and Cooney 1988, p. 177; Coyle productivity of the benthic communities because: (1) It is a substrate for ice algae and Pinchuk 2002, p. 177; Hunt and is not seen in the Southern Beaufort Sea (Horner 1976, pp. 168–171; Kern and Stabeno 2002, p. 11; Lovvorn et al. shelf and areas of the eastern Chukchi Carey Jr. 1983, p. 161; Grainger et al. 2005, p. 136; Renaud et al. 2007, p. 9). Sea, which are influenced by the 1985, pp. 25–27; Melnikov 2000, pp. Blooms form a 20- to 50-km- (12–31 mi- nutrient-poor Alaska coastal current 79–81; Gradinger 2009, p. 1201); (2) it ) wide belt off the ice edge and progress (Fay et al. 1977, p. 12; Grebmeier et al. influences nutrient supply and north as the ice melts, creating a zone 1989, p. 261; Feder et al. 1994, p. 176; phytoplankton bloom dynamics of high productivity. In colder years in Smith et al. 1995, p. 243; Grebmeier et (Lovvorn et al. 2005, p. 136); and (3) it the Bering Sea, when the ice extends to al. 2006b, p. 346; Bluhm and Gradinger determines the extent of the cold-water the shelf edge, there is greater nutrient 2008, p. 2). pool on the southern Bering shelf resupply through shelf-edge eddies and (Aydin and Mueter 2007, p. 2503; Coyle Ocean Warming tidal mixing, creating a longer spring et al. 2007, p. 2900; Stabeno et al. 2007, bloom (Tynan and DeMaster 1997, pp. For the last several decades, surface p. 2615; Mueter and Litzow 2008, p. 314–315). air temperatures throughout the Arctic, 309). The blooms that occur near the ice over both land and water, have warmed In the spring, ice algae form up to a edge make up approximately 50 to 65 at a rate that exceeds the global average, 1-cm- (0.4-in-) thick layer on the percent of the total primary production and they are projected to continue on underside of the ice, but are also found in Arctic waters (Coyle and Pinchuk that path (Comiso and Parkinson 2004, at the ice surface and throughout the ice 2002, p. 188; Bluhm and Gradinger pp. 38–39; Christensen et al. 2007, p. matrix (Horner 1976, pp. 168–171; Cota 2008, p. S84). High benthic abundance 904; Lawrence et al. 2008, p. 1; Serreze and Horne 1989, p. 111; Gradinger et al. and biomass correspond to areas with et al. 2009, pp. 11–12). In addition, the 2005, p. 176; Gradinger 2009, p. 1207). high deposition of phytodetritus (dead subsurface and surface waters of the Ice algae can be released into the water algae) (Grebmeier et al. 1989, pp. 253– Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas, through water turbulence below the ice, 254; Grebmeier and McRoy 1989, p. 79; including the Bering and Chukchi Seas through brine drainage through the ice, Tynan and DeMaster 1997, p. 315). have warmed (Steele and Boyd 1998, p. or when the algal mats are sloughed as Regions with the highest masses of 10419; Zhang et al. 1998, p. 1745; the ice melts (Cota and Horne 1989, p. benthic invertebrates occur in the Overland and Stabeno 2004, p. 309; 117; Renaud et al. 2007, p. 7). As noted northern Bering Sea southwest of St. Stabeno et al. 2007, pp. 2607–2608; above, sea-ice algae provide a highly Lawrence Island, Alaska; in the central Steele et al. 2008, p. 1; Mueter et al. concentrated food source for the Gulf of Anadyr, Russia, north and south 2009, p. 96). There are several benthos and the plankton (organisms of the Bering Strait; at a few offshore mechanisms working in concert to cause that float or drift in the water) food web sites in the East Siberian Sea; and in the these increases in ocean temperature, that is initiated once the ice melts northeast sector of the Chukchi Sea including: Warmer air temperatures (Grebmeier et al. 2006b, p.339; (Grebmeier and Dunton 2000, p. 61; (Comiso and Parkinson 2004, pp. 38–39; McMahon et al. 2006, pp. 1–2; Renaud Dunton et al. 2005, pp. 3468, 3472; Overland and Stabeno 2004, p. 310), an et al. 2007, pp. 8–9; Gradinger 2009, p. Carmack et al. 2006, p. 165; Grebmeier increase in the heat carried by currents 1211). Areas of high primary et al. 2006b, pp. 346–351; Aydin and entering the Arctic from both the productivity support areas of high Mueter 2007, pp. 2505–2506; Bluhm Atlantic (Drinkwater et al., p. 25; Zhang invertebrate mass, which is food for and Gradinger 2008, p. S86). As noted et al. 1998, p. 1745) and Pacific Oceans walruses (Grebmeier and McRoy 1989, above, the biomass of benthic (Stabeno et al. 2007, p. 2599; Woodgate p. 87; Grebmeier et al. 2006b, p. 332; invertebrates is much less in the eastern et al. 2010, p. 1–5), and a shorter ice Bluhm and Gradinger 2008, p. S87). Chukchi Sea, which is under the season, which decreases the albedo Spring ice melt plays an important influence of the nutrient-poor Alaska (reflective property) of ice and snow role in the timing, amount, and fate of Coastal Current (Dunton et al. 2006, p. (Comiso and Parkinson 2004, p. 43; primary production over the Bering Sea 369). Moline et al. 2008, p. 271; Markus et al. shelf, with late melting (as occurs now) When the ice melts early (before mid- 2009, p. 13). Due to their biological leading to greater delivery of food from March, as projected for the future), characteristics which include tolerance primary production to the benthos and conditions that promote the of considerable variations in earlier melting (as is projected to occur phytoplankton bloom do not occur until temperature, direct effects to walrus are in the future) contributing food late May or June (Stabeno et al. 2007, p. not anticipated with warmer ocean primarily to the pelagic system (Aydin 2612). The difference in timing is temperatures. Nevertheless, changes in and Mueter 2007, p. 2505; Coyle et al. important, because when the bloom

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occurs later in the spring the surface reproduction (Klein Breteler et al. 2005, and an increase in fish populations water temperatures are 2.2 °C (3.6 °F) to p. 126). Because ice algae are a much (Overland and Stabeno 2004, p. 310; more than 5 °C (9.4 °F) warmer (Hunt better source of essential fatty acids than Grebmeier et al. 2006a, pp. 1462–1463). and Stabeno 2002, p. 11); this, in turn, phytoplankton, a loss in sea ice could The Bering Sea is a transition area is an important influence on the change the quality of food supplied to between Arctic and subarctic metabolism of zooplankton. In cold areas that currently support high levels ecosystems, with the boundary between temperatures, zooplankton consume less of benthic biomass. These changes may the two loosely concurrent with the than 2 percent of the phytoplankton affect the success of invertebrate extent of the winter sea-ice cover production (Coyle and Cooney 1988, pp. reproduction and recruitment, which, in (Overland and Stabeno 2004, p. 309). In 303–305; Coyle and Pinchuk 2002, p. turn, may affect the quantity and quality the eastern Bering Sea, reductions in sea 191). Warmer temperatures result in of food available to walrus (Witbaard et ice have been responsible for shrinking increased zooplankton growth rates, al. 2003, p. 81; McMahon et al. 2006, a large subsurface pool of cold water reduction in their time to maturity, and pp. 10–12). By the end of the century, with water temperatures less than 2 °C increased production rates (Coyle and the March (winter maximum) extent of (3.6 °F) (Stabeno et al. 2007, p. 2605; Pinchuk 2002, p. 177; Hunt and Stabeno sea ice is projected to be approximately Mueter and Litzow 2008, p. 313). The 2002, pp. 12–14). Zooplankton are half of contemporary conditions southern edge of the cold pool, which efficient predators of phytoplankton, (Douglas 2010, p. 8). We expect ice algae defines the boundary region between and when they are abundant, they can will persist where ice is present; the Arctic and subarctic communities, remove nearly all the phytoplankton however, because of the reduced ice has retreated approximately 230 km available (Coyle and Pinchuk 2002, p. extent, current areas of high benthic (143 mi) north since the early 1980s 191). Zooplankton are the primary food productivity may be reduced or shift (Mueter and Litzow 2008, p. 316). for walleye pollock (Theragra northward. The northward expansion of warmer chalcogramma) and other planktivorous The eastern and western Bering Sea water has resulted in an increase in fishes (Hunt and Stabeno 2002, pp. 14– shelves are fueled by nutrient-rich water pelagic species as subarctic fauna have 15). Consequently, when zooplankton supplied from the deep water of the colonized newly favorable habitats populations are high, instead of the Bering Sea (Sambrotto et al. 1984, pp. (Overland and Stabeno 2004, p. 309; primary production being transmitted to 1148–1149; Springer et al. 1996, p. 205). Mueter and Litzow 2008, pp. 316–317). the benthos, it becomes tied up in Concentrations of nitrate, phosphate, Walleye pollock, a species common in pelagic food webs. While this may be and silicate are among the highest the subarctic, which avoid temperatures recorded in the world’s oceans and beneficial for fish-eating mammals, it less than 2° C (3.6 °F), have now moved contribute to the high benthic reduces the amount of food delivered to northward into the former Arctic zone. productivity (Sambrotto et al. 1984, p. the benthos and, thus, may reduce the Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), which 1148; Grebmeier et al. 2006a, p. 1461; amount of prey available to walrus prefer cold temperatures, have also Aydin and Mueter 2007, p. 2504). High (Tynan and DeMaster 1997, p.316; moved north to remain in colder productivity on the northern Bering- Carmack et al. 2006, p. 169; Grebmeier temperatures (Stabeno et al. 2007, p. Chukchi shelf is supported by the et al. 2006a, p. 1462). Most models 2605). Because of the redistribution of delivery of nutrient-rich water via the project that sea-ice melt in the Bering these species, benthic fauna will be Anadyr Current that flows along the Sea will occur increasingly early in the facing a new set of predators (Coyle et western edge of the Bering Sea and future, and will be 1 month earlier by through the Bering Strait (Springer et al. al. 2007, pp. 2901–2902). The evidence the end of the century (Douglas 2010, p. 1996, p. 206; Aydin and Mueter 2007, suggests that warming on the Bering Sea 12). This is consistent with recent p. 2504). Thus, the movement of highly shelf could alter patterns of energy flow trends over the past two decades, and productive water onto the northern and food web relationships in the particularly in the past few years. Based Bering Sea shelf supports persistent hot benthic invertebrate community, on our current understanding of food spots of high benthic productivity, leading to overall reductions in biomass web dynamics in the Bering Sea, this which in turn support large populations of benthic invertebrates (Coyle et al. shift in timing would favor a shift to of benthic-feeding birds, walrus, and 2007, p. 2902). pelagic food webs over benthic gray whales (Aydin and Mueter 2007, p. Continued changes in the extent, production, consequently reducing the 2506). This contrasts with the southern thickness, and timing of the melt of sea amount of prey available to walrus. subarctic region of the Bering Sea, ice are expected to create shifts in The importance of ice algae is not which is south of the current range of production and species distributions only in its role in seeding the spring the Pacific walrus, where the benthic (Overland and Stabeno 2004, p. 316). phytoplankton bloom, but also in its mass is largely consumed by upper Because some residents of the benthos nutritional value. As food supply to the tropic-level demersal fish and epifaunal are very long lived, it may take many benthos is highly seasonal, synchrony of invertebrates whose northern years of monitoring to observe change reproduction with algal inputs insures distribution is limited by a pool of cold, (Coyle et al. 2007, p. 2902). Many adequate high-quality food for near-freezing water in the northern simultaneous changes (e.g., ocean developing larvae or juveniles of region of the Bering Sea. currents, temperature, sea-ice extent, benthic organisms (Renaud et al. 2007, Benthic productivity on the northern and wind patterns) are occurring in p. 9). Ice algae have high concentrations Bering Sea shelf has decreased over the walrus-occupied habitats, and thus may of essential fatty acids, some of which last two decades, coincident with a impact walrus’ prey base. Rapid cannot be synthesized by benthic reduction of northward flow of the warming might cause a major invertebrates and, therefore, must be Anadyr current through the Bering restructuring of regional ecosystems ingested in their diet (Arrigo and Strait (Grebmeier et al. 2006a, p. 1462). (Carmack and Wassmann 2006, p. 474; Thomas 2004, p. 477; Klein Breteler et Because of recent warming trends, the Mackenzie and Schiedek 2007, p. 1344). al. 2005, pp. 125–126; McMahon et al. northern Bering Sea shelf may be Mobile species such as fishes have the 2006, pp. 2, 5). Fatty acids in marine undergoing a transition from an Arctic ability to move to areas of thermal fauna play an integral role in to a more subarctic ecosystem with a preference and follow key forage species physiological processes, including reduction in benthic prey populations (Mueter et al. 2009, p. 106); immobile

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species such as bivalves must cope with carbon-dioxide, downloaded 20 July corrosive to these structures and it the conditions where they are. 2010). becomes physiologically more difficult Projections by Douglas (2010, pp. 7, The global atmospheric concentration for organisms to construct them (Orr et 23) indicate that the March (yearly of CO2 is now higher than experienced al. 2005, p. 685; Gazeau et al. 2007, p. maximum) sea-ice extent in the Bering for more than 800,000 years (Lu¨ thi et al. 2–5; Fabry et al. 2008, p. 415; Talmage Sea will be about 25 percent less than 2008, p. 379; Scripps 2011, p. 4). Over and Gobler 2009, p. 2076; Findlay et al. the 1979–1988 average by mid-century, the industrial era, the ocean has been a 2010, pp. 680–681). The waters of the and 60 percent less by the end of the sink for anthropogenic carbon Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas are century. In addition, spring melt of sea emissions, absorbing about one-third of among the most vulnerable to ocean ice will occur increasingly earlier, and the atmospheric CO2 (Feely et al. 2004, acidification, with undersaturation of on average will be one month sooner by p. 362; Canadell et al. 2007, pp. 18867– aragonite projected to occur locally the end of the century (Douglas 2010, p. 18868). When CO2 is absorbed by within a decade (Orr et al. 2005, p. 683; 8). As described above, the earlier seawater, chemical reactions occur that Chierici and Fransson 2009, pp. 4972– spring melt may lead to a change in the reduce seawater pH (a measure of 4973; Steinacher et al. 2009, p. 522). To food web dynamics that favors pelagic acidity) and the concentration of date, aragonite saturation has decreased predators, which feed on zooplankton, carbonate ions, in a process known as in the top 50 m (164 ft) in the Canadian over the delivery of high quantities of ‘‘ocean acidification.’’ Basin (Yamamoto-Kawai et al. 2009, p. quality food to benthic invertebrates. In Ocean acidification is a consequence 1099), and under-saturated waters have addition, reductions in the extent of the of rising atmospheric CO2 levels (The been documented on the Mackenzie winter sea-ice cover may lead to a Royal Society 2005, p.1; Doney et al. shelf (Chierici and Fransson 2009, p. further or more permanent expansion of 2008, p. 170). Seawater carbonate 4974), Chukchi Sea (Bates and Mathis the subarctic ecosystem northward into chemistry is governed by a series of 2009, p. 2441), and Bering Sea (Fabry et the Arctic. Although there is uncertainty chemical reactions (CO2 dissolution, al. 2009, p. 164). about the specific consequences of these acid/base chemistry, and calcium Factors that contribute to changes, the best available scientific carbonate dissolution) and biologically undersaturation of seawater with information suggests that because of the mediated reactions (photosynthesis, aragonite or calcite are: upwelling of likely decreases in the quantity and respiration, and calcium carbonate carbon dioxide-rich subsurface waters; quality of food delivered to benthic precipitation) (Wootton et al. 2008, p. increased carbon dioxide concentrations invertebrates, and because of a potential 18848; Bates and Mathis 2009, p. 2450). from anthropogenic CO2 uptake; cold increase in predators from the south, the The marine carbonate reactions allow water temperatures; and fresher, less amount and distribution of preferred the ocean to absorb CO2 in excess of saline water (Feely et al. 2008, p. 1491; prey (bivalves) available to walrus in the potential uptake based on carbon Chierici and Fransson 2009, p. 4966; Bering Sea will likely decrease in the dioxide solubility alone (Denman et al. Yamamoto-Kawai et al. 2009, p. 1099). foreseeable future as a result of the loss 2007, p. 529). Consequently, the pH of The loss of sea ice (causing greater of sea ice and ocean warming. The ocean surface waters has already ocean surface to be exposed to the extent to which this decrease may result decreased (become more acid) by about atmosphere), the retreat of the ice edge in a curtailment of the range of the 0.1 units since the beginning of the past the continental shelf break that Pacific walrus or limit the walrus industrial revolution (Caldeira and favors upwelling, increased river runoff, population in the future is unknown, Wickett, 2003, p. 365; Orr et al. 2005, p. and increased sea ice and glacial melt and at this time we do not have 681). are forces that favor undersaturation sufficient information to predict it with The absorption of carbon dioxide by (Yamamoto-Kawai et al. 2009, pp. 1099– reliability. The implications of the seawater changes the chemical 1100; Bates and Mathis 2009, pp. 2446, available information, however, are that equilibrium of the inorganic carbon 2449–2450). The projected increase of 3 impacts may include modification of system and reduces the concentration of to 5 months of ice-free conditions in the habitat that could contribute to a carbonate ions. Carbonate ions are Bering and Chukchi Seas by Douglas reduction in the range of the Pacific required by organisms like clams, snails, (2010, p. 7) indicates the potential for walrus at the southern edge of its crabs, and corals to produce calcium increased CO2 absorption in the Arctic current distribution, as well as a carbonate, the primary component of over the next century beyond what possible reduction in the walrus their shells and skeletons. Decreasing would occur from predicted CO2 population because of reduced prey. concentrations of carbonate ions may increases alone. However, there are Although our conclusion is based on the place these species at risk (Green et al. opposing forces that may mitigate best available science, we recognize that 2004, p. 729–730; Orr et al. 2005, p. 685; undersaturation to some extent, its validity rests on ecological Gazeau et al. 2006 p. 1; Fabry et al. including photosynthesis by hypotheses that are currently being 2008, p. 419–420; Comeau et al. 2009, phytoplankton that may increase with tested. p. 1877; Ellis et al. 2009, p. 41). Two reduced sea ice, and warmer ocean forms of calcium carbonate produced by temperatures (Bates and Mathis 2009, p. Ocean Acidification marine organisms are aragonite and 2451). However, according to Steinacher Since the beginning of the industrial calcite. Aragonite, which is 50 percent et al. (2009, p. 530), the question is not revolution in the mid-18th century, the more soluble in seawater than calcite, is whether undersaturation will occur in release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from of greatest importance in the Arctic the Arctic, but how large an area will be human activities (‘‘anthropogenic CO2’’) region because clams, mussels, snails, affected, how many months of the year has resulted in an increase in crustaceans, and some zooplankton use it will occur, and how large its atmospheric CO2 concentrations, from aragonite in their shells and skeletons magnitude. approximately 280 to approximately 390 (Fritz 2001, p. 53; Fabry et al. 2008, p. Because acid-base balance is critical ppm currently, with 30 percent of the 417; Steinacher et al. 2009, p. 515). for all organisms, changes in carbon increase occurring in the last three When seawater is saturated with dioxide concentrations and pH can decades (NOAA, http:// aragonite or calcite, the formation of affect reproduction, larval development, www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/2009/ shells and skeletons is favored; when growth, behavior, and survival of all articlesclimate-change-atmospheric- undersaturated, the seawater becomes marine organisms (Green et al. 1998, p.

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23; Kurihara and Shirayama 2004, pp. at the various levels in the food web acidification are not threats to the 163–165; Berge et al. 2006, p. 685; Fabry will be able to adapt or if one species Pacific walrus now or in the foreseeable et al. 2008, pp. 420–422; Kurihara 2008, will replace another. It is also not future, although we acknowledge that pp. 277–282; Po¨rtner 2008, pp. 209–211; possible to predict what impacts this the general indications are that impacts Ellis et al. 2009, pp. 44–45; Talmage and will have on the community structure appear more likely to be negative than Gobler 2009, p. 2076; Findlay et al. and ultimately if it will affect the positive or neutral. 2010, pp. 680–681). Po¨rtner (2008, p. ’’ services that the ecosystems provide. Summary of Factor A 211) suggests that heavily calcified Consequently, although we recognize marine groups may be among those with that effects to calcifying organisms, We have analyzed the effects of the the poorest capacity to regulate acid- which are important prey items for loss of sea ice, ocean warming, and base status. Although some animals Pacific walrus, will likely occur in the ocean acidification as related to the have been shown to be able to form a foreseeable future from ocean present or threatened destruction, shell in undersaturated conditions, it acidification, we do not know which modification, or curtailment of the comes at an energetic cost which may species may be able to adapt and thrive, habitat or range of the Pacific walrus. translate to reduced growth rate or the ability of the walrus to depend on Although we are concerned about the (Talmage and Gobler 2009, p. 2075; alternative prey items. As noted in the changes to walrus prey that may occur Findlay et al. 2010, p. 679; Gazeau et al. introduction, the prey base of walrus from ocean acidification and warming, 2010, p. 2938), muscle wastage (Po¨rtner includes over 100 taxa of benthic and theoretically we understand how 2008, p. 210), or potentially reduced invertebrates from all major phyla those stressors might operate, ocean reproductive output. Because juvenile (Sheffield and Grebmeier 2009, pp. 761– dynamics are very complex and the bivalves have high mortality rates, if 777). Although walruses are highly changing conditions and related aragonite undersaturation inhibits adapted for obtaining bivalves, they also outcomes for these stressors are too planktonic larval bivalves from have the potential to switch to other uncertain at this time for us to conclude constructing shells (Kurihara 2008, p. prey items if bivalves and other that these stressors are a threat to Pacific 277) or inhibits them from settling calcifying invertebrate populations walrus now or in the foreseeable future. Because of the loss of sea ice, Pacific (Hunt and Scheibling 1997, pp. 274, decline. Whether other prey items walruses will be forced to rely on 278; Green et al. 1998, p. 26; Green et would fulfill walrus nutritional needs terrestrial haulouts to a greater and al. 2004, p. 730; Kurihara 2008, p. 278), over their life span is unknown greater extent over time. Although the increased mortality would likely (Sheffield and Grebmeier 2009, p. 770), coastal haulouts have been traditionally have a negative effect on bivalve and there also is uncertainty about the used by males, in the future both sexes populations. extent to which other suitable non- The effects of ocean acidification on and all ages will be restricted to coastal bivalve prey might be available, due to habitats for a much greater period of walrus may be through changes in their uncertainty about the effects of ocean prey base, or indirectly through changes time. This will expose all individuals, acidification and the effects of ocean but especially calves and females to in the food chain upon which their prey warming. depend. Walruses forage in large part on increased stress, energy expenditure, calcifying invertebrates (Ray et al. 2006, Both Bayesian network models and death or injury from disturbance- pp. 407–409; Sheffield and Grebmeier (Garlich-Miller et al. 2010; Jay et al. caused stampedes from terrestrial 2009, pp. 767–768; also see discussion 2010b) indicate that ocean warming and haulouts. Calf abandonment, and of diet, above). Aragonite ocean acidification are likely to have increased energy expenditure for undersaturation has been documented little effect on Pacific walrus future females and calves is likely to occur in the area occupied by Pacific walrus status, but these conclusions were from prey depletion near terrestrial (Bates and Mathis 2009, p. 2441; Fabry primarily because of the high degree of haulouts. Increased energy expenditure et al. 2009, p. 164), and it is projected uncertainty associated with these could lead to decreased condition and to become widespread in the future factors. As described above, our analysis decreased survival. In addition, there (Steinacher 2009, p. 530; Fro¨licher and indicates that earlier melting of ice in may be a small increase in direct Joos 2010, pp. 13–14). Thus, it is the spring, a decreased extent of ice in mortality or injury of calves and females possible that mollusks and other winter and spring, and warming of the due to increased predation or hunting as calcifying organisms may be negatively ocean may lead to changes in the a result of greater use of terrestrial affected through a variety of distribution, quality, and quantity of haulouts. Although some of these mechanisms, described above. While food available to Pacific walrus over stressors are acting on the population the effects of observed ocean time. In addition, in the future, ocean currently, we anticipate that their acidification on the marine organisms acidification has the potential to have a magnitude will increase over time as are not yet documented, the progressive negative impact on calcifying sea-ice loss over the continental shelf acidification of oceans is expected to organisms, which currently represent a occurs more frequently and more have negative impacts on marine shell- large portion of the walrus’ diet. The extensively. Due to the projected forming organisms in the future (The best available science does not indicate increases in sea-ice habitat loss and the Royal Society 2005, p. 21; Denman et al. that either of these factors will have a resultant stressors associated with 2007, p. 533; Doney et al. 2009, p. 176; positive impact on the availability, increased dependence on coastal Kroeker et al. 2010, p. 9). quality, or quantity of food available to haulouts, as described above, we do not Uncertainty regarding the general the walrus in the future. However, we anticipate the projected Pacific walrus effects of ocean acidification has been are also unable to predict to what extent population decline to stabilize in the summarized by the Royal Society (2005, these factors may limit the Pacific foreseeable future. Rather, the best p. 23): ‘‘Organisms will continue to live walrus population in the future, in scientific information available leads to in the oceans wherever nutrients and terms of reduction in its range or a conclusion that the Pacific walrus will light are available, even under abundance, or the extent to which the be increasingly at risk. Through our conditions arising from ocean walrus may be able to adapt to a analysis, we have concluded that loss of acidification. However, from the data changing prey base. Therefore, we sea ice, with its concomitant changes to available, it is not known if organisms conclude that ocean warming and ocean walrus distribution and life-history

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patterns, will lead to a population Federation intermittently authorizes the walrus ivory is closely monitored by the decline. Therefore, we conclude, based taking of walrus from the wild for Service through existing import/export on the best scientific and commercial scientific and educational purposes. For regulations (Garlich-Miller et al. 2011, data available, that the present or example, in 2009, a collection permit Section 3.5.1 ‘‘International threatened destruction, modification, or was issued for take of up to 40 walrus Agreements’’). curtailment of its habitat or range is a calves from the wild to be used for Most of the walrus parts imported threat to Pacific walrus. public display. This take was included into or exported from the United States in the subsistence harvest quota, and is are derived from historic ivory and bone Factor B. Overutilization for therefore considered sustainable. We shards, and parts from newly harvested Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or have no information that would lead us walrus are subject to the MMPA Educational Purposes to believe this level of take from the requirements that limit U.S. trade to The following potential factors that wild will increase in the foreseeable Alaska Native handicrafts. Therefore, may result in overutilization of Pacific future. we have determined, based on the best walrus are considered in this section: (1) Based on the above, we conclude that scientific and commercial data Recreation, scientific, or educational utilization of walrus for recreational, available, that United States Import/ purposes; (2) U.S. import/export; (3) scientific, or educational purposes is not Export is not considered to be a threat commercial harvest; and (4) subsistence a threat to the Pacific walrus to the Pacific walrus now or in the harvest. Under Factor A, we also discuss population. Protections and regulatory foreseeable future. the potential increase in subsistence mechanisms in both the United States Commercial Harvest hunting associated with increasing and the Russian Federation have dependence of Pacific walrus on coastal stopped recreational hunting. In the Commercial harvest of the Pacific haulouts caused by the loss of sea-ice United States, the MMPA has effectively walrus is prohibited in the U.S., and has habitat. ensured that any removal for scientific not occurred in Russia since 1991 (see or educational purposes has a bona fide discussion below). Pacific walrus ivory Recreation, Scientific, or Educational and meat was available on the Purposes and necessary or desirable scientific basis. In the Russian Federation, take for commercial market starting in the Overutilization for recreational, scientific or educational purposes is seventeenth century (Fay 1957, p. 435; scientific, or educational purposes is controlled by a quota. We believe the Elliot 1982, p. 98). Since then, currently not considered a threat to the United States and the Russian commercial harvest levels have varied Pacific walrus population. Recreational Federation will continue to ensure that in response to population size and (sport) hunting has been prohibited in any future removal of walrus for economic demand. Several of the larger the United States since 1979. Russian recreational, scientific, or educational reductions in the Pacific walrus legislation also prohibits sport hunting purposes will be consistent with the population have been attributed to of Pacific walruses. The Marine long-term conservation of the species. unsustainable harvest levels, largely Mammal Protection Act of 1972, as Therefore, we have determined, based driven by commercial hunting (Fay amended (16 U.S.C. 1361, et seq.) on the best scientific and commercial 1957, p. 437; Bockstoce and Botkin (MMPA), allows the Service to issue a data available, that the utilization of 1982, p. 183). Harvest regulations permit authorizing the take of walrus for Pacific walrus for recreational, enacted in the United States and Russia scientific purposes in the United States, scientific, or educational purposes is not in the 1950s and 1960s that reduced the provided that the research will further a threat to the species now or in the size of the harvest and provided a bona fide and necessary or desirable foreseeable future. protection to females and calves scientific purpose. The Service must allowed the population to recover and consider the benefits to be derived from United States Import/Export peak in the 1980s (Fay et al. 1989, p. 1). the research and the effects of the taking Based on data from the Service’s Law Commercial harvest of marine on the stock, and must consult with the Enforcement Management Information mammals in U.S. waters is currently public, experts in the field, and the System (LEMIS), in 2008 more than prohibited by the MMPA. Commercial United States Marine Mammal 16,000 walrus parts, products, and harvest was last conducted in Russia in Commission. derivatives (ivory jewelry, carvings, 1991 (Garlich-Miller and Pungowiyi Similarly, any take for an educational bone carvings, ivory pieces, and tusks) 1999, p. 59). Russian legislation still purpose is allowed by the MMPA only were imported into or exported from the allows for a commercial harvest, after rigorous review and with United States. Over 98 percent of those although a decree from the Russian appropriate justification. No permits specimens were from walrus that had Fisheries Ministry allocating a authorizing the take of walrus for originated in the United States. Most of commercial harvest quota would be educational and public display these specimens were identified as required prior to resumption of harvest purposes have been requested in the fossilized bone and ivory shards, (Kochnev 2010, pers. comm.). Quota United States since the 1990s. The principally dug from historic middens recommendations are determined by Service has worked with the public on St. Lawrence Island, or carvings from sustainable removal levels, which are display community to place stranded such. Therefore, the harvest of the based on the total population and animals, which the Service has source animals predates adoption of the productivity estimates (Garlich-Miller determined cannot be returned to the MMPA in 1972, and does not represent and Pungowiyi 1999 p. 32). Therefore, wild, at facilities for educational and a threat to the species. any potential future commercial harvest public display purposes. By placing Since the passage of the MMPA in in Russia is unlikely to become a threat stranded walruses, which would 1972, ivory and bone can only be to the population. otherwise be euthanized, at facilities exported from the United States after it Commercial hunting of Pacific walrus that are able to care for and display the has been legally harvested, and is banned in the United States. animals, we believe needs for the substantially altered to qualify as an Regulatory protections in the Russian domestic public display community in Alaska Native handicraft and as a Federation have been effective in the United States have been, and will personal effect or as part of a cultural ensuring that any removal for continue to be, met. The Russian exchange. Trade in raw post-MMPA commercial purposes is consistent with

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long-term conservation of the species. 1997, p. 558). The increase in harvest in adjust in concert with changes in Therefore, we have determined, based the 1980s was accompanied by an population status or trend. on the best scientific and commercial increase in the proportion of females There are no Statewide harvest quotas data available, that commercial harvest harvested, and may have caused a in Alaska; however, some local harvest is not a threat to Pacific walrus either population decline (Fay et al. 1997, p. management programs have been now or in the foreseeable future. 549). Harvest levels in the 1990s were developed. Round Island, within the Walrus Island State Game Sanctuary, Subsistence about half those of the previous decade, averaging 5,787 walrus per year. The was a traditional hunting area of several Pacific walrus have been an important 2000–2008 average annual removal, Bristol Bay communities prior to the subsistence resource for coastal Alaskan which was 5,285 walrus per year, was development of the game sanctuary. and Russian Natives for thousands of about 9 percent lower than the removal Access to Round Island is controlled by years (Ray 1975, p. 10). In 1960, the in the 1990s (Service, unpublished the State of Alaska via a permit system. State of Alaska restricted the data). In the United States for the years To continue the traditional hunt, the subsistence harvest of female walrus to 2004–2008, the communities of Gambell local communities proposed a seven per hunter per year in an effort to and Savoonga on St. Lawrence Island, cooperative agreement, which resulted recover the population from a reduced Alaska, have accounted for 84 percent of in a quota of 20 walrus and a 40-day state. Concurrently, Russia also the reported U.S. harvest and 43 percent hunting season in the fall (Chythlook implemented harvest quotas and of the harvest rangewide (Garlich- and Fall 1998, p. 5). The management prohibited shooting animals in the Miller, et al. 2011, Section 3.3.1.4 agreement was negotiated by the water (to reduce lost animals) (Fay et al. ‘‘Regional Harvest Patterns’’). The St. Service, Bristol Bay Native Association/ 1989, p. 4). In 1961, the State of Alaska Lawrence Island average reported Qayassiq Walrus Commission, the further reduced the quota to five females harvest, not corrected for animals that Eskimo Walrus Commission, and Alaska per hunter per year, still allowing an are struck and lost or hunter Department of Fish and Game (ADFG), unlimited number of males to be noncompliance with the Marking and sanctioned in a signed hunted. The limit of five adult females Tagging and Reporting Program, (the memorandum of understanding. The per hunter remained in effect until struck and lost correction and the MTRP State of Alaska issues hunting access 1972, when passage of the Marine are discussed below) for 2004–2008 is permits only during the open season. If Mammal Protection Act transferred 988 animals (Service, unpublished the quota is reached, additional hunting management responsibility to Federal data). access could be denied and existing control (Fay et al. 1997, p. 548). As a permits could be revoked. Recent result of reducing the numbers of The lack of information on population harvests at Round Island have ranged females harvested, the population status or trends makes it difficult to from zero to two walruses per year. No increased substantially through the quantify sustainable removal levels for walrus were harvested on Round Island 1960s and 1970s, and by 1980 was the Pacific walrus population (Garlich- in 2009 or 2010. Bristol Bay hunters also probably approaching the carrying Miller et al. 2011, Section 3.3.1.5 hunt elsewhere in the area without capacity of the habitat (Fay et al. 1989, ‘‘Harvests Sustainability’’). Recent restriction, and may be shifting hunting p. 4). (2003–2007) annual harvest removals in efforts to islands outside the State game Total harvest removals (combined the United States and Russia have sanctuary as the monetary cost of commercial and subsistence harvests in ranged from 4,960 to 5,457 walrus per traveling to Round Island is often the United States and Russia), including year, representing approximately 4 prohibitive. estimates of animals struck and lost, for percent of the minimum population With an interest in reviving the 1960s and 1970s averaged 5,331 and estimate of 129,000 animals (FWS 2010, traditional law, advancing the idea of 5,747 walrus per year. Between the p. 2). These levels are lower than those self-regulation of the subsistence years of 1976 and 1979, the State of experienced in the early 1980s (8,000– harvest, and initiating a local Alaska managed the walrus population 10,000 per year) that led to a population management infrastructure due to under a federally imposed subsistence decline (Fay et al. 1989 pp. 3–4). concern about changing sea-ice harvest quota of 3,000 walrus per year. Chivers et al. (1999, p. 239) modeled dynamics and the walrus population, Relinquishment of management walrus population dynamics and the Native Villages of Gambell and authority by Alaska to the Service in estimated the maximum net Savoonga on St. Lawrence Island have 1979 lifted this harvest quota (the productivity rate (Rmax) for the Pacific recently formed Marine Mammal MMPA conditionally exempts Alaska walrus population at 8 percent per year. Advisory Committees (MMAC), and Natives from the take prohibitions; i.e., Wade (1998, p. 21) notes that one half implemented local ordinances subsistence harvest must not be of Rmax (4 percent for Pacific walruses) establishing a limit of four walruses per conducted in a wasteful manner), which is a reasonably conservative (i.e., hunting trip. Walruses that are struck may have also contributed to the sustainable) potential biological removal and lost (wounded and not retrieved), as increased harvest rates in subsequent (PBR) level for marine mammal well as calves, do not count against this years (USFWS 1994, p. 2). Specifically, populations below carrying capacity, limit. In addition, there is no limit on the 1980s saw an increase in harvest, because it provides a reserve for the number of trips, so the effectiveness with a total removal estimate averaging population growth or recovery. The PBR of this ordinance in limiting total 10,970 walrus per year (Service, level, as defined under the MMPA, is harvest is dependent on the total unpublished data). The increased the maximum number of animals, not number of hunting trips. Factors such as harvest rates in this decade may reflect including natural mortalities, that may subsistence needs, social mores, several factors, including the absence of be removed from a marine mammal distance of walrus from the village, a harvest quota (USFWS 1994, p. 2), stock while allowing that stock to reach weather, success of previous trips, commercial harvest in Russia, and or maintain its optimum sustainable needs of immediate and extended increased availability of walruses to population. Changes in productivity family members, and monetary cost of subsistence hunters coinciding with the rates or population size could making a trip all play a part in the population reaching carrying capacity eventually result in unsustainable number of trips a hunting party makes. (Fay and Kelly 1989, p. 1; Fay et al. harvest levels if harvest rates do not The spring hunting season of 2010 was

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the first to have the trip-limit population surveys. According to regulations to limit or restructure the ordinances in place. We estimate that 91 Kochnev (2004, p. 286), all the Pacific harvest, we do not expect harvest percent of the hunting trips were in walrus haulouts of the Arctic coast of pressure in the Bering Strait region to compliance with the ordinance by Chukotka, Russia, are characterized by a change appreciably in the foreseeable taking no more than four adult/subadult high disturbance level. The majority of future (Garlich-Miller et al. 2011, walrus per trip (Service, unpublished these haulouts in Chukotka are near Section 3.3.1.4.1 ‘‘Climate Change’’). The data). coastal villages, and used by local St. Lawrence Island Tribal Governments Subsistence harvest reporting in the subsistence hunters (Kochnev 2004, p. and subsistence hunters have recently United States is required under section 286). taken steps to modify their harvest 109(i) of the MMPA, and is The harvest reporting program in patterns through the formation of administered through a Marking, Russia is administered by the Russian Marine Mammal Advisory Committees, Tagging, and Reporting Program (MTRP) Agricultural Department. The harvest in and the adoption of local ordinances codified at 50 CFR 18.23(f). The MTRP Russia has been traditionally conducted limiting the number of walrus harvested requires Alaska Native hunters to report by hunting teams from each village. per hunting trip by Tribal members. the harvest of walrus and present the Team leaders are required to submit two These are substantial efforts on the part ivory for tagging within 30 days of harvest reports per month. However, of the Tribes and subsistence hunters, harvest. The Service also administers walrus hunting by individual hunters and the Service looks forward to the Walrus Harvest Monitor Project (those not part of a harvest team) has continuing to work through the co- (WHMP), which is an observer-based increased since the inception of the management structure (which allows for data-collection program conducted in Russian Federation, and there is no cooperative efforts between the Service, the communities of Gambell and official mechanism for individuals to Alaska Natives, and State agencies; Savoonga during the spring harvest. report their harvest; as a result, Russian MMPA sec. 119(b)(4)) to ensure that the This program is designed to collect harvest estimates are biased low to an harvest of the Pacific walrus remains harvest data and biological samples. Not unknown degree (Kochnev 2010, pers. sustainable for future generations. all harvest in the United States is comm.). In addition, the Russians do not However, the current measures to reported through the MTRP (regulatory adjust their harvest estimates for regulate the subsistence harvest do not program). The Service uses the WHMP animals that are struck and lost. The limit the harvest of females or provide (observer-based) harvest data to Service assumes that the Russian struck limits on the total number of walruses supplement MTRP data to develop a and lost rate is comparable to the U.S. harvested and, therefore, are not wholly correction factor for noncompliance to rate, and applies the struck and lost sufficient to ensure that harvest in the estimate the number of walrus correction factor of 42 percent to the Bering Strait region will be sustainable harvested, but not reported through the Russian harvest data when estimating long term. The tribal ordinances are MTRP. The MTRP-reported harvest data total subsistence harvest levels. This structured in such a way that the Marine (Statewide) is corrected for correction provides a more accurate Mammal Advisory Committees could noncompliance (unreported harvest), estimate of the number of animals enact additional regulations in the and that total is then corrected to removed from the population due to future to address efficiency (reduce the account for animals struck and lost harvest. number of animals that are struck and (estimated at 42 percent of the walrus Subsistence removals of walrus in the lost), restructure the sex ratio of the that are shot). Current accuracy of the United States are closely tied to social harvest, or impose quotas upon their struck and lost estimate is unknown and and traditional customs, subsistence Tribal members, or enact other measures should be re-estimated (USFWS 2010, p. needs, sea-ice dynamics, weather, and to manage the harvest. 4). Compliance rates with the MTRP monetary costs related to hunting. We In the Bristol Bay and the Yukon- vary considerably from year to year, predict that the range-wide walrus Kuskokwim regions of Alaska, levels of with estimates ranging from a low of 60 population will be smaller in the future, subsistence harvest of walrus may percent to a high of 100 percent. due to changes in summer sea-ice cover decline slightly, in light of declines in Subsistence harvest in Chukotka, and associated impacts; thus, fewer southern Bering Sea ice in the winter Russia, is controlled through a quota walrus overall will be available for (subsistence hunters search for walrus system. An annual subsistence quota is harvest. However, in the Bering Strait that are resting on ice floes) and a recent issued through a decree by the Russian region, winter and spring sea ice is trend of fewer male walrus remaining in Federal Fisheries Agency. Quota expected to persist through mid- Bristol Bay during the summer. recommendations are based on century; walrus will likely continue to However, harvest in these regions is sustainable removal levels be locally abundant in numbers that already so low—averaging 5 and 18 (approximately 4 percent of the would enable harvest to continue at walrus reported as harvested per year, population based on population and levels similar to current ones, over time. respectively, for 2004 through 2008 productivity estimates) (Garlich-Miller Because these animals would be (Service, unpublished data)—that it and Pungowiyi 1999 p. 32). Because the available to local subsistence hunters likely does not have an appreciable population is shared with the United around St. Lawrence Island and other effect on the population. Future harvest States, Russian quota recommendations Bering Strait villages, the Pacific walrus patterns and levels are not anticipated have generally been 2 percent or less of would remain an important subsistence to change significantly in either region the estimated total population (Garlich- resource. Subsistence harvest of walrus (Garlich-Miller et al. 2011, Section Miller and Pungowiyi 1999, p. 32; is extremely important to several Alaska 3.3.1.4.1 ‘‘Climate Change’’). Kochnev 2010, pers. comm.). Russian Native cultures. The primary factor In the North Slope region of Alaska, harvest quotas are set annually and influencing the number of walrus reported subsistence harvest averaged recent quota reductions in Russia of harvested each year will be the general 48 walrus per year from 2004–2008. As approximately 57 percent from 2003– availability of walruses in the Bering summer sea ice in the Chukchi Sea 2010 have been in response to a Strait region. recedes out over deep arctic basin presumed population decline based in Given current and projected sea-ice waters, it is anticipated that coastal part on observed haulout mortalities conditions, and without additional haulouts will form along the Chukchi from trampling and results from various Tribal, State or Federal hunting coast into the foreseeable future. Large

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concentrations of walrus on shore for projections to the end of the 21st to the adverse effects of future sea-ice longer periods of time could afford century. conditions on population outcomes opportunity for additional harvest. The Although we have suggested that through the end of the century (Jay et al. potential for hunting activity to create a overall harvest must adjust with 2010b, p. 16). population size, there are strategies stampede resulting in injuries or Summary of Factor B mortalities, or to displace animals from other than a numerical quota that could preferred forage areas (Kochnev 2004, p. be utilized in an effort to assure As discussed above, scientific and 285) is of greater concern than the direct sustainability over the long term. The educational utilization of walruses is mortalities associated with harvest. co-management structure and the St. currently at low levels, regulated both Although the potential for increased Lawrence Island Tribal ordinances domestically and in the Russian harvest exists, we do not expect the provide an effective means to address Federation, and is not a threat to the harvest to increase based on the fact that improvements in hunting efficiency, Pacific walrus now or in the foreseeable these communities’ subsistence focus is and modification of the sex structure of future. Recreational (sport) hunting of on bowhead and beluga whales, due to the harvest. Improving hunting Pacific walrus is prohibited under the a strong cultural connection and efficiency by reducing the number of MMPA and by Russian legislation; tradition as a whaling culture. North animals which are struck and lost could therefore, it is not a threat to the Pacific Slope coastal communities also have potentially reduce the total number of walrus now or in the foreseeable future. access to a wider array of resources than walrus removed from the population United States import/export is not a island communities and rely much more due to subsistence harvest. Adult threat to the Pacific walrus now or in heavily on other marine mammals, breeding-age females are the most the foreseeable future because Pacific seabirds, fish and terrestrial mammals to important cohort of the population. An walrus specimens exported from or meet their subsistence needs (MMS overall reduction in the number of imported into the United States consist 2007, p. IV–186). Due to the presence of females removed annually while still mostly of fossilized bone and ivory the oil industry, North Slope allowing an unlimited number of males shards, and any other walrus ivory can communities also have a stronger to be harvested has had a positive effect only be imported into or exported from economic base than the Bering Strait on a declining population in the past the United States after it has been communities, and therefore do not rely and could be an effective means of legally harvested and substantially as heavily on ivory carving as a source managing harvests for sustainability into altered to qualify as a Native handicraft. Commercial hunting of Pacific walrus in of cash in the local economy. the future. Our conclusion that subsistence the United States is prohibited under As stated above, barring additional harvest is a threat in the foreseeable the MMPA. Commercial hunting in Tribal or Federal regulations governing future is supported by the BN models Russia has not occurred since 1991 and harvest, we predict that subsistence prepared by the Service and USGS. The could not resume unless a harvest quota harvest is likely to continue at or near sensitivity analyses of both models based on sustainability were current levels, even as the walrus identified subsistence harvest as one of established; therefore, it is unlikely that population declines in response to loss the major drivers of model predictions. Russian commercial harvest will be a of summer sea ice. This is because The two models involved different threat to the Pacific walrus population. walrus are expected to continue to assumptions relative to subsistence Over the past 50 years, Pacific walrus remain locally abundant and available harvest levels. In the Service model, we population annual harvest removals for subsistence harvest in the Bering assumed, for the reasons described have varied from 3,200 to 16,000 per Strait region in the winter and spring. above, that subsistence harvest levels year. Over the past decade, subsistence Over time, depending on how quickly would remain relatively constant over harvest removals in the United States the population declines, future harvest time, even as the walrus population and Russia have averaged levels will need to be reduced as declined in response to reduced sea-ice approximately 5,000 per year. Recent population size declines, or subsistence conditions. In the USGS model, Jay et harvest levels are significantly lower harvest will become unsustainable. al. (2010b, p. 15) assumed that future than historical highs, although the lack Therefore, we have determined that if harvest rates would be proportional to of information on population status and subsistence harvest continues at current walrus population size. However, these trend make it difficult to quantify levels, as expected, it represents a threat authors acknowledge that if in the sustainable removal levels. Anticipated to the walrus population in the future, the walrus population declines, reductions in population size in foreseeable future. Although it is but harvest continues at the current response to losses in sea-ice habitats difficult to quantify sustainable removal level, the population-level stress caused and associated impacts underscore the levels because of the lack of information by the harvest would effectively need for reliable population information on Pacific walrus population status and increase (Jay et al. 2010b, p. 16), thereby as a basis for evaluating the trends, we have determined that the amplifying the impact of subsistence sustainability of future harvest levels. current harvest of approximately 4 harvest on the population. In the Research leading to a better percent is at a sustainable level based on Service model, maintaining the harvest understanding of population responses a minimum population estimate of at replacement levels (sustainable) to changing ice conditions and 129,000. Therefore, we do not consider reduced the probabilities of negative modeling efforts to examine the impact the current level of subsistence harvest effects by about 19 percent compared to of various removal levels are currently to be a threat to Pacific walrus at the a higher harvest (Garlich-Miller et al. under way by USGS and others. present time. Our identification of 2011, Table 8). Results from the USGS Subsistence harvest levels in Russia subsistence harvest as a threat to the model suggest that although minimizing are presently controlled under a quota species in the foreseeable future is tied harvest from current levels may have system based upon the 2006 population to expected population declines related little positive effect on population estimate. The Russian quota has been to threats associated with reduced outcomes in the future, harvests of high reduced recently in response to the loss summer sea ice, and is based on the best (greater than 4 percent of the of several thousand calves at terrestrial scientific and commercial data population) and very high levels (greater haulouts as a result of trampling events available, including scientific than 6 percent) could add significantly in recent years and their belief that the

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population is in decline. Although the Pacific walrus harvests, we mammals may be the result of changing subsistence walrus harvest in Alaska is acknowledge that there are currently no distribution patterns of the host not regulated under a quota system, the regulatory mechanisms in place to (Duignan et al. 1994, p. 90; Dobson and MMPA provides for the development of assure the sustainability of subsistence Carper 1993; p. 1096). For example, voluntary co-management agreements harvests. In the absence of such phocine distemper virus (PDV) was with Alaska Native organizations. regulatory mechanisms, we do not recently found in the North Pacific Notably, hunting ordinances were expect harvest levels in the Bering Strait (Goldstein et al., 2009 p. 2009), and implemented in 2010 in Alaska’s two region to change appreciably in the while antibodies to PDV have been primary hunting communities, foreseeable future. Subsistence harvest found in Atlantic walrus (Duignan et al. providing a promising mechanism for is predicted to continue at similar 1994, p. 90; Nielson et al. 2000, p. 510), self regulation of harvests. While it is levels, independent of future walrus as yet there has been no evidence of premature to evaluate the efficacy of population trends. Barring additional exposure in Pacific walruses. such local ordinances over the long Tribal or Federal harvest management Parasites are common among term, the recent establishment of these actions, we anticipate that the pinnipeds, and their infestations result local management programs offers a proportion of animals harvested will in various effects to individuals and tangible framework for additional increase relative to the overall populations, ranging from mild to harvest management, as necessary. The population, and this continued level of severe (Fay 1982, p. 228; Dubey 2003, p. existing harvest reporting and subsistence harvest will become 275). For example, the ectoparasite monitoring programs provide unsustainable. Therefore, although we Antarctophthirus trichchi is an information on harvest program do not identify current subsistence anopluran (sucking) louse that lives in effectiveness and also provide data on harvest as a threat to the walrus the skin folds of walruses (Fay 1982, p. harvest trends and composition. In population at the present time, we have 228), causing external itching, but no conjunction with information on determined that this continued level of serious health issues (Fay 1982, p. 228). population status and trends, this subsistence harvest will become a threat Endoparasites, protozoa, and information will be used to evaluate to the walrus population, as it declines helminthes (microorganisms and future harvest management strategies. in the foreseeable future. Based on the parasitic worms) also may impact Additionally, a multi-party agreement best scientific and commercial data populations, as they rely on locating between the Service, State of Alaska, available, we find that overutilization in suitable hosts to complete all or part of and two Alaska native groups includes the form of subsistence harvest at their life cycle. Of the 17 species of a defined hunting season and a quota for current levels, is likely to threaten the helminthes known to parasitize Pacific the Round Island State Game Sanctuary. Pacific walrus in the foreseeable future. walrus, 2 species are endemic (Fay We wish to underscore the 1982, p. 228; Rausch 2005, p. 134): The importance of the efforts the Alaska Factor C. Disease or Predation cestode Diphyllobothrium fayi, found Native community has undertaken to Future disease and predation only in the small intestine, and the manage subsistence harvest, and we are dynamics may be tied to environmental nematode Anisakis rosmari, found only hopeful that community-based harvest changes associated with changes in sea in stomachs (Heptner and Naumov regulations to improve efficiency ice and other environmental parameters 1976, p. 52). (reduce animals that are struck and that influence disease vectors and Trichinella spiralis nativa (Rausch et lost), adjust the sex structure of the exposure, and predation opportunities. al. 2007, p. 1249) infects Pacific harvest (reduce the overall take of Our ability to reliably predict the walruses at a rate of about 1.5 percent females), or limit the total number of potential level and influence of disease (Bukina and Kolevatova 2007, p. 14). walrus taken will be developed in the and predation is tied to our ability to While the possibility of contracting future. The Service prefers to develop predict environmental change and is Trichinosis from infected walrus has community-based harvest regulations. related to our understanding of sea-ice been an issue of concern to some To that end, we will continue working dynamics. Under Factor A, we also subsistence hunters for decades, directly with the subsistence hunting discussed the potential increase in Trichinella does not appear to cause any community and the Eskimo Walrus predation by polar bears associated with ill effects in walrus (Rausch et al. 2007, Commission to continually refine increasing dependence of Pacific walrus p. 1249). harvest monitoring and reporting and to on coastal haulouts caused by the loss The intracellular parasite Toxoplasma share information on population status of sea-ice habitat. gondii is a significant cause of and trend from both traditional encephalitis in sea otters and harbor Disease ecological knowledge and western seals (Dubey et al. 2003, p. 276), and science. We recognize that to improve Infectious viruses and bacteria have heart, liver, intestine and lung lesions in our ability to manage the walrus the capacity to impact marine mammals, sea lions (Dubey et al. 2003, p. 281). It harvest, the refinement of methods to particularly when first introduced to a has been isolated from at least 10 estimate walrus abundance and trend, population (Duignan et al. 1994, p. 90; species of marine mammals, including productivity, and habitat carrying Osterhaus et al. 1997, p. 838; Ham- walrus (Dubey et al. 2003, p. 278). Of capacity is needed. Our longstanding Lamme et al. 1999, p. 607; Calle et al. the 53 Pacific walruses tested between co-management agreement between the 2002, p. 98; Burek et al. 2008, p. 129). 1976 and 1998, about 5.6 percent were Service and the Eskimo Walrus Pacific walrus have had exposure to positive for T. gondii (Dubey et al. 2003, Commission provides an important several pathogens, such as Caliciviruses p. 278). T. gondii has also been forum for continued dialogue about (Fay et al. 1984, p. 140; Smith et al. documented in some walrus prey (e.g., these harvest-related issues and a 1983, p. 86; Barlough et al. 1986, p. seals and bivalves; Fay 1982, p. 146; mechanism for developing further 166), Leptospirosis (Calle et al. 2002, p. Lowry and Fay 1984, p. 12; Dubey et al. harvest management options. 96), and Influenza A virus (Calle et al. 2003, p. 278; Lindsay et al. 2004, p. In summary, although the Service 2002, p. 95–96), none of which have 1055; Jensen et al. 2009, p. 1); however, supports efforts by subsistence resulted in large die-offs of animals. it will not likely play a significant role communities to implement voluntary Additionally, the introduction of new in the health of the Pacific walrus programs with the goal of sustainable viruses to populations of marine population, because they have a history

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of exposure and no large walrus that include collection of walrus haulouts, and some of the animals die mortality events have been attributed to carcasses and establishment of polar in stampedes caused by disturbance this organism. bear feeding areas away from the events. The magnitude of these potential Neospora caninum is a protozoan haulouts and villages (Kavry 2010, pers. energetic costs would be determined by parasite that was found in 3 of 53 comm.). the frequency and distance of the shifts walruses (Dubey et al. 2003, p. 281). The increase in walrus carcasses at in location. Although predation by polar The health implication for N. caninum coastal haulouts in Chukotka in recent bears on Pacific walrus has been exposure in walruses is unknown, but years is likely playing an important role observed, no population-level effects the potential for exposure appears low. in shifting habitat-use patterns of some have been documented to date; In summary, the occurrence and polar bears and their progeny (Kochnev therefore, polar bear predation is not effects of diseases and parasites on 2006, p. 1). Walrus carcasses now currently a threat to the Pacific walrus. Pacific walrus appear to be minor in represent an important food resource for As sea ice declines and Pacific walrus terms of potential population-level polar bears on Wrangel Island in spend more time on coastal haulouts, effects. Several diseases and parasites autumn and early winter (Kochnev however, it is likely that polar bear appear at chronically low levels; 2002, p. 137). Polar bears begin to predation will increase. However, we however, no outbreaks resulting in large appear near walrus haulouts on Wrangel cannot reliably predict the level of such die-offs have been observed. A changing Island in early August, about a month predation. Although we have identified climate may increase exposure of walrus prior to the arrival of walruses (Kochnev these issues as stressors for Pacific to new organisms. Additionally, 2002, p. 137). In the 1990s, the number walrus, we are not able to conclude with increased use of terrestrial haulouts may of polar bears coming ashore on sufficient reliability that they will rise to escalate the risk of transmission of Wrangel Island peaked in late October, the level of a threat to the Pacific walrus disease (Fay 1974, p. 394). This averaging 50 bears (Kochnev 2002, p. population in the foreseeable future. potential stressor is part of the USGS 137). However, in 2007, approximately Although sea-ice habitats also provide Bayesian network model, which linked 500–600 polar bears were stranded on some protection against killer whales, lower-shelf ice availability to walrus Wrangel Island (Ovsyanikov and which have limited ability to penetrate crowding and incidence of disease and Menyushina 2007, p. 1), along with far into the ice pack, accounts of killer parasites in the population, by herds of walruses (up to 15,000 in one whale predation on walrus have been increasing the walrus haulout sizes and group); some of the walruses were in observed by Russian scientists and concentrating their locations (Jay et al. poor condition and polar bears were Alaskan Natives (Fay 1982, pp. 216– 2010b, p. 9). However, sensitivity able to kill them relatively easily. At 220). Some observers suggest that killer analysis did not identify disease and least 11 cases of polar bear predation on whales primarily prey upon the predation as having a significant effect motherless calves were also observed youngest animals, and instances of on model outcomes (Jay et al. 2010b, p. (Ovsyanikov et al. 2007, p. 1). killer whale predation on adult walruses 86). In addition, increased exposure to Because the summer/fall open-water have also been documented (Fay and disease or parasites has yet to be period is projected to increase in the Stoker 1982, p. 2). The mortality from documented, and there are no clear foreseeable future, polar bears are also killer whale predation is unknown, but transmission vectors that would change predicted to spend more time on land. an interpretation of an examination of the level of exposure. At this time, As a result, we anticipate that there will 52 walrus carcasses that washed ashore disease and parasites are not considered be greater interaction between the two on St. Lawrence Island in 1951 (Fay to be threats to the Pacific walrus species, and terrestrial walrus haulouts 1982, p. 220) suggested that 17 walrus population, and no evidence exists that may become important feeding areas for (33 percent) died from injuries they will be in the foreseeable future. polar bears. The presence of polar bears consistent with killer whale predation. along the coast during the ice-free Fay and Kelly reported that 2 of 15 (13 Predation season will likely influence patterns of percent) animals they examined had Because of their large size and haulout use by walrus, and may play a likely been killed by killer whales (Fay formidable tusks, adult walruses have significant role in the selection of and Kelly 1980, p. 235). The potential few natural predators. Polar bears coastal haulout sites (Garlich-Miller et for killer whales to expand their range (Ursus maritimus) and killer whales al. 2011, Section 3.4.2.1 ‘‘Polar Bears’’). and begin to target walruses at northern (Orcinus orca) tend to prey on walruses We anticipate walrus to respond to this haulouts exists; however, this remains only opportunistically and focus expected increase in interaction with speculative at this time. Reduced primarily on younger animals. polar bears by shifting to other coastal availability of sea ice may lead to However, when suitable sea-ice haulout locations. However, if walrus walruses spending more time in the platforms are not available, Pacific are forced to move to other locations to water where they may be more walruses haul out onto land, where they avoid predation by polar bears, the susceptible to predation by killer whales become vulnerable to terrestrial walrus may be displaced from preferred (Boveng et al. 2009, p. 169). However, predators and associated stampede haulout locations with adequate prey there is no evidence that killer whale events. Walrus carcasses accumulating resources to other areas that may or may predation has ever limited the Pacific at coastal haulouts provide scavenging not have less-suitable foraging habitat. It walrus population, and there is no opportunities that may attract bears is also possible that walrus will be evidence of increased presence of killer (Ovsyanikov 2003, p. 13). Brown bears, forced to move to different haulout whales in the Bering or Chukchi seas; wolverines, and feral dogs have also locations more frequently, with therefore, killer whale predation is not been observed scavenging at coastal increased energetic costs to them. a threat to the Pacific walrus now and haulouts in Chukotka, Russia, in recent Kochnev (2004, p. 286) asserted that is unlikely to be a threat in the years (Kochnev 2010, pers. comm.) and when Pacific walrus migrate in autumn, foreseeable future. contribute to disturbances at these from haulout to haulout on the Arctic Sensitivity analyses of both BN haulout sites. Programs have been coast of Chukotka, Russia, the increased models found that disease and established in recent years at some pressure from humans and animal predation had very little effect on model coastal haulouts in Chukotka, Russia, to predators prevents walruses from outcomes. For the Service model, mitigate disturbance-related mortalities getting adequate rest at the coastal disease and predation altered model

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outcomes by 1.2 and 2.2 percent, a threat, we also provide an overview of reporting of greenhouse gas emissions respectively (Garlich-Miller et al. 2011, additional laws and regulations from fossil fuel suppliers and industrial Table 8). For the USGS model, disease containing protective measures for the gas suppliers, direct greenhouse gas and predation accounted for less than 1 walrus. emitters, and manufacturers of heavy percent of entropy (variation) reduction duty and off-road vehicles and engines Regulatory Mechanisms To Address (Jay et al. 2010b, p. 85–86). (EPA 2009, p. 56260). The rule does not Sea-Ice Loss actually regulate greenhouse gas Summary of Factor C As explained under Factor A, a emissions, however; but it merely Disease and predation are not primary threat to the survival of the requires that emissions above certain considered to represent threats to the Pacific walrus is the projected loss of thresholds be monitored and reported Pacific walrus population at this time. sea-ice habitat due to a warming climate (EPA 2009, p. 56260). On December 7, Although a changing climate may and its consequences for walrus 2009, the EPA found that the current increase exposure of walrus to new populations. Currently, there are no and projected concentrations of six pathogens, there are no clear regulatory mechanisms in place that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere transmission vectors that would change effectively address GHG emissions, threaten public health and welfare levels of exposure, and no evidence climate change, and associated sea-ice under section 202(a) of the Clean Air exists that disease will become a threat loss. Act. This finding by itself does not in the foreseeable future. As walruses National and international regulatory impose any requirements on any and polar bears become increasingly mechanisms to comprehensively industry or other entities to limit dependent on coastal haulouts, we address the causes of climate change are greenhouse gas emissions. While the expect interactions between the two continuing to be developed. finding could be considered a species to increase. The presence of International efforts to address climate prerequisite for any future regulations polar bears stranded along the coast change began with the United Nations developed by the EPA to reduce GHG during the ice-free season will likely Framework Convention on Climate emissions, no such regulations exist at influence patterns of haulout use and Change (UNFCCC), which was signed in this time. In addition, it is unknown may play a significant role in the May 1992. The UNFCCC states as its whether any regulations will be adopted selection of coastal haulout sites. There objective the stabilization of GHG in the future as a result of the finding, is no evidence that killer whale concentrations in the atmosphere at a or how effective such regulations would predation has ever limited the Pacific level that would prevent dangerous be in addressing GHG emissions and walrus population, and there is no anthropogenic interference with the climate change. evidence of increased presence of killer climate system, but it does not impose whales in the Bering or Chukchi seas. any mandatory and enforceable Summary of Regulatory Mechanisms To The net effect of future predation levels restrictions on GHG emissions. The Address Sea-Ice Loss on the population cannot be reliably Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in 1997, Based on our analysis (above), we predicted, because of uncertainties became the first agreement added to the conclude that there are no known relative to distribution of walrus and UNFCCC to set GHG emissions targets regulatory mechanisms in place at the their potential predators and the amount for signatory counties, but the targets are national or international level that are of potential overlap, and the degree to not mandated. The Climate Change Act likely to effectively reduce or limit GHG which these predators would target of 2008 established a long-term target to emissions. This conclusion is Pacific walrus. The best available cut emissions in the United Kingdom corroborated by the projections we used scientific information indicates that the (UK) by 80 percent by 2050 and by 34 to assess risks to sea ice from GHG effect of predation on Pacific walrus percent in 2020 compared to 1990 emissions, as described earlier in this may be a source of concern in the levels, but the law does not pertain to finding. Therefore, the lack of foreseeable future, particularly at the any emissions outside the UK. Other mechanisms to regulate GHG emissions localized scale, where walrus congregate international laws, regulations, or other is already included in our risk at coastal haulouts. However, we do not legally binding requirements imposing assessment in Factor A, which shows anticipate predation to be a threat to the limits on GHG emissions to further the that, without additional regulation, GHG entire population. Therefore, we goals set forth in the UNFCCC and the emissions and corresponding sea-ice conclude, based on the best scientific Kyoto Protocol have not yet been losses are likely to increase in the and commercial data available, that adopted. foreseeable future. Thus, we conclude disease and predation are not threats to In the United States, efforts to address that regulatory mechanisms do not the Pacific walrus now, nor are they climate change focus on the Clean Air currently exist to effectively address the likely to become threats to the Act and a number of voluntary actions loss of sea-ice habitat. population in the foreseeable future. and programs. Specifically, the Clean Air Act of 1970 (42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.), Regulatory Mechanisms To Ensure Factor D. The Inadequacy of Existing as amended, requires the Environmental Harvest Sustainability Regulatory Mechanisms Protection Agency (EPA) to develop and While current harvest levels are In determining whether the enforce regulations to protect the considered sustainable, subsistence inadequacy of regulatory mechanisms general public from exposure to harvest has been identified as a threat to constitutes a threat to the Pacific walrus, airborne contaminants hazardous to the Pacific walrus within the foreseeable we focused our analysis on the specific human health. In 2007, the Supreme future. As explained in Factor B, laws and regulations aimed at Court ruled that gases that cause global subsistence harvest is expected to addressing the two primary threats to warming are ‘‘pollutants’’ under the continue at current levels, while the the walrus–the loss of sea-ice habitat Clean Air Act, and that the EPA has the walrus population is projected to under Factor A and subsistence harvest authority to regulate carbon dioxide and decline with the continued loss of sea under Factor B. These specific other heat-trapping gases ice and associated impacts. Barring regulatory mechanisms are described (Massachusetts et al. v. EPA 2007 (Case additional Tribal or Federal regulations, below. Although none of the other No. 05–1120)). On December 29, 2009, we anticipate that the proportion of stressors on walrus rise to the level of the EPA adopted a regulation to require animals harvested will increase relative

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to the overall population. As a result, used the program to improve its ordinances described above, we the current level of subsistence harvest understanding of subsistence harvest by conclude that adequate regulatory will likely become unsustainable in the recruiting, training, and outfitting mechanisms are not currently in place foreseeable future. To address this village residents to collect harvest data to address the threat that continued threat, regulatory mechanisms will need and tag tusks. Pursuant to the program, levels of subsistence harvest pose to the to be developed and implemented to the Service has also maintained a Pacific walrus as the population ensure that future harvest levels are walrus harvest reporting database and declines in the foreseeable future. The reduced in proportion to the declining developed and implemented important Russian harvest is currently regulated walrus population such that subsistence outreach and education programs. with a quota system, based on the In addition to the MTRP, the Service harvest levels are sustainable. To sustainability of the harvest. In Alaska, determine whether such regulatory also administers the Walrus Harvest no Statewide quota exists. An annual mechanisms currently exist, we Monitoring Program, which is an evaluated the various international and observer-based data collection program quota does exist on Round Island, but domestic laws and regulations, conducted in the communities of the number of walrus harvested in this cooperative agreements, and local Gambell and Savoonga during the area is miniscule in relation to the ordinances relevant to the subsistence spring harvest. The program is designed overall harvest. In the Bering Strait harvest of walrus. to collect basic biological information Region, where the vast majority of U.S. In Russia, the Pacific walrus is a on harvested walrus, collect biological harvest (84 percent) and 43 percent of protected species managed primarily by samples for research, and supplement the rangewide harvest occurs, local the Fisheries Department within the the MTRP data set, to allow the Service ordinances recently adopted by two Ministry of Agriculture. The subsistence to more accurately account for the Native villages reflect the appreciation harvest of walrus in Russia is unreported segment of the harvest. The of the Native community for the authorized, but it is controlled through Service law enforcement office important role of self-regulation in a quota system. Under the Russian ‘‘Law simultaneously conducts an managing the subsistence harvest, and on Fishery and Protection of Aquatic enforcement program designed to will serve as a starting point for future Biological Resources,’’ the harvest of enforce the nonwasteful take provision cooperative efforts and the development walrus is based upon the total annual of the MMPA. of harvest management strategies in the Some local harvest management catch (TAC) of walrus (Food and future. There are currently no tribal, programs have been adopted in addition Agriculture Organization of the United Federal, or State regulations in place to Nations 2007, p. 4). The TAC takes into to the above subsistence harvest data ensure the likelihood that, as the account the total population and collection programs. Through a 1997 population of walrus declines in productivity, based in part on the cooperative agreement between the recommendations of scientists from the Service, Bristol Bay Native Association/ response to changing sea-ice conditions, Pacific Research Fisheries Center Qayassiq Walrus Commission, the the subsistence harvest of walrus will (Chukotka Branch-ChukotTINRO) Eskimo Walrus Commission, and ADFG, occur at a reduced and sustainable level. regarding a sustainable removal level the subsistence harvest of walrus at As a result, we conclude that current (Kochnev, 2010 pers. comm.). The 2010 Round Island, a traditional hunting area regulatory mechanisms are inadequate quota has been set at 1,300 animals now located within the Walrus Island to prevent subsistence harvest from (Kochnev, 2010 pers. comm.). State Game Sanctuary, is restricted to a becoming unsustainable in the In the United States, section 101(b) of 40-day fall hunting season and a quota foreseeable future. Therefore, we the MMPA (16 U.S.C. 1371(b)) provides of 20 walrus (Chythlook and Fall 1998, conclude that current regulatory an exemption for the continued pp. 4, 5). The harvest level in this area mechanisms do not remove or reduce nonwasteful harvest of walrus by coastal has ranged from zero to two per year the threat to the Pacific walrus from Alaska Natives for subsistence and and represents a very minor portion of future subsistence harvest. handicraft purposes. Pursuant to the harvest in the United States. Section 101(b)(3), regulations limiting Similarly, out of a desire to revive Regulatory Mechanisms To Address the subsistence harvest of walrus may traditional law, to advance the idea of Other Stressors be adopted, but only if a determination self regulation of the subsistence is first made that the species or stock harvest, and to initiate a local A number of regulatory mechanisms has been depleted, following notice and management infrastructure, the Native directed specifically at protecting and determination by substantial evidence villages of Gambell and Savoonga on St. conserving the walrus and its habitat are on the record following an agency Lawrence Island have recently formed in place at the international, national, hearing before an administrative law Marine Mammal Advisory Committees and local level. These mechanisms may judge. To date, no determination has (MMAC) and implemented local be useful in minimizing the adverse ever been made that the species or stock ordinances establishing a limit of four effects to walrus from potential stressors has been depleted, and thus, no walruses per hunting trip. The scope of other than sea-ice loss and subsistence regulations establishing limits on the these ordinances is limited, however, as harvest, such as the take of walrus for subsistence harvest of Pacific walrus in walruses that are struck and lost and scientific or educational purposes, the United States have been adopted. walrus calves do not count against this commercial harvest, human Subsistence harvest reporting in the limit of four walruses per trip, and the disturbance, and oil spills. Because United States is required under section number of trips is not restricted. none of these other stressors rise to the 109(i) of the MMPA. This requirement Additionally, there is no quota on the level of a threat to the Pacific walrus, we is administered through the Marking, total number of walruses that may be acknowledge that the protections Tagging, and Reporting Program (MTRP) harvested. discussed here are not essential to our and requires Alaska Native hunters to determination of the adequacy of report the harvest of all walrus and Summary of Regulatory Mechanisms To existing regulatory mechanisms to present the ivory for tagging within 30 Ensure Harvest Sustainability address threats to the walrus. days of harvest. Since its After evaluating the laws, regulations, implementation in 1988, the Service has cooperative agreements, and local

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International Agreements recognition that marine mammals ‘‘affect petition the Secretary of the Interior to The Convention on International Trade the balance of marine ecosystems in a authorize the incidental, but not in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna manner that is important to other intentional, taking of small numbers of and Flora animals and animal products,’’ and that marine mammals within that region for marine mammals and their habitats a period of not more than 5 consecutive The Convention on International should therefore be protected and years (16 U.S.C. 1371(a)(5)(A)). The Trade in Endangered Species of Wild conserved; and (4) direction that the Secretary ‘‘shall allow’’ the incidental Fauna and Flora (CITES) is a treaty primary objective of marine mammal taking if the Secretary finds that ‘‘the aimed at protecting species that are or management is to maintain ‘‘the health total of such taking during each five- may be affected by international trade. and stability of the marine ecosystem.’’ year (or less) period concerned will The CITES regulates international trade Congressional intent to protect marine have no more than a negligible impact in animals and plants by listing species mammal habitat is also reflected in the on such species or stock and will not in one of three appendices. The level of definitions section of the MMPA. The have an unmitigable adverse impact on monitoring and regulation to which an terms ‘‘conservation’’ and ‘‘management’’ the availability of such species or stock animal or plant species is subject of marine mammals are specifically for taking for subsistence uses’’ (16 depends on the appendix in which the defined to include habitat acquisition U.S.C. 1371(a)(5)(A)(i)). If the Secretary species is listed. At the request of and improvement. makes the required findings, the Canada, the walrus was listed at the The MMPA established a general Secretary also prescribes regulations species level in Appendix III, which moratorium on the taking and importing that specify: (1) Permissible methods of includes species that are subject to of marine mammals, as well as a taking; (2) means of affecting the least regulation in at least one country, and number of prohibitions that are subject practicable adverse impact on the for which that country has asked the to a number of exceptions. Some of species, their habitat, and their other CITES Party countries for these exceptions include take for availability for subsistence uses; and (3) assistance in controlling and monitoring scientific purposes, for purposes of requirements for monitoring and international trade in that species. For public display, and for subsistence use reporting. (16 U.S.C. 1371(a)(5)(A)(ii)). exportation of walrus specimens from by Alaska Natives, as well as The regulatory process does not Canada, an export permit may be issued unintentional take incidental to authorize the activities themselves, but by the Canadian Management Authority conducting otherwise lawful activities. authorizes the incidental take of the if it finds that the specimen was legally The Service, prior to issuing a permit marine mammals in conjunction with obtained. The import of walrus authorizing the taking or importing of a otherwise legal activities. specimens into countries that are parties walrus, or a walrus part or product, for Regulations authorizing the nonlethal to CITES requires the presentation of a scientific or public display purposes, incidental take of walrus from certain certificate or origin and, if the import reviews each request, provides an oil and gas activities in the Beaufort and was from Canada, an export permit. All opportunity for public comment, and Chukchi Seas are currently in place. countries within the range of the consults with the U.S. Marine Mammal These regulations are based on a walrus—that is, the United States Commission (MMC), as described at 50 determination that the effects of such (Pacific walrus); the Russian Federation CFR 18.31. The Service has determined activities, including noise, physical (Pacific and Laptev Walrus), Canada, that there is sufficient rigor under the obstructions, human encounters, and oil Norway, Greenland (Denmark), and regulations at 50 CFR 18.30 and 18.31 spills, are likely to be sufficiently Sweden (Atlantic walrus) are members to ensure that any activities so limited in time and scale that they to the CITES and have provisions in authorized are consistent with the would have no more than a negligible place to monitor international trade in conservation of this species and are not impact on the stock (USFWS 2008, pp. walrus specimens. a threat to the species. 33212, 33226). General operating Domestic Regulatory Mechanisms Take is defined in the MMPA to conditions required to be imposed in include the ‘‘harassment’’ of marine specific authorizations include: (1) Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 mammals. ‘‘Harassment’’ includes any Restrictions on industrial activities, The Marine Mammal Protection Act act of pursuit, torment, or annoyance areas, and time of year; (2) restrictions of 1972, as amended (16 U.S.C. 1361 et that ‘‘has the potential to injure a marine on seismic surveys to mitigate potential seq.) (MMPA) was enacted to protect mammal or marine mammal stock in the cumulative impacts on resting, feeding, and conserve marine mammals so that wild’’ (Level A harassment), or ‘‘has the and migrating walrus; and (3) they continue to be significant potential to disturb a marine mammal or development of a site-specific plan of functioning elements of the ecosystem marine mammal stock in the wild by operation and a site-specific monitoring of which they are a part. The MMPA causing disruption of behavioral plan to enumerate and document any sets forth a national policy to prevent patterns, including, but not limited to, animals that may be disturbed. These marine mammal species or population migration, breathing, nursing, breeding, and other safeguards and coordination stocks from diminishing to the point feeding, or sheltering’’ (Level B with industry called for under the where they are no longer a significant harassment) (16 U.S.C. 1362(18)(A)). MMPA have been useful in helping to functioning element of the ecosystems. The MMPA contains provisions for minimize industry effects on walrus. The MMPA places an emphasis on evaluating and permitting incidental A similar process exists for the habitat and ecosystem protection. The take of marine mammals, provided the promulgation of regulations authorizing habitat and ecosystem goals set forth in total take would have no more than a the incidental take of small numbers of the MMPA include: (1) Management of negligible effect on the population or marine mammals where the take will be marine mammals to ensure they do not stock. Specifically, under Section limited to harassment (16 U.S.C. cease to be a significant element of the 101(a)(5) of the MMPA, citizens of the 1371(a)(5)(D)). These authorizations, ecosystem of which they are a part; (2) United States who engage in a specified referred to as Incidental Harassment protection of essential habitats, activity other than commercial fishing Authorizations, are limited to 1 year and including rookeries, mating grounds, (which is specifically and separately require a finding by the Department that and areas of similar significance ‘‘from addressed under the MMPA) within a the taking will have no more than a the adverse effects of man’s action’’; (3) specified geographical region may negligible impact on the species or stock

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and will not have immitigable adverse Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act or enhance the resources of the Nation’s ’’ impact on the availability of such The Outer Continental Shelf Lands coastal zone. The CZMA provides for species or stock for taking for Act (OCSLA) (43 U.S.C. 331 et seq.) the submission of a State program subsistence uses. There are currently no established Federal jurisdiction over subject to Federal approval. The CZMA incidental harassment authorizations in submerged lands on the outer requires that Federal actions be conducted in a manner consistent with place for the walrus. continental shelf (OCS) seaward for 5 the State’s Coastal Zone Management As discussed under Factor E, shipping km (3 mi) in order to expedite Plan (CZMP) to the maximum extent exploration and development of oil and and anthropogenic noises are expected practicable. Federal agencies planning gas resources. The OCSLA is to increase in the Chukchi and Beaufort or authorizing an activity that affects implemented by the Bureau of Ocean Seas in the future, and could impact the any land or water use or natural Energy, Management, Regulation and walrus or its habitat. Under the MMPA, resource of the coastal zone must Enforcement (formerly the Minerals however, disturbance of walrus from provide a consistency determination to Management Service) of the Department such otherwise lawful human activity is the appropriate State agency. The of the Interior. The OCSLA mandates generally prohibited. While the MMPA CZMA applies to walrus habitats of does allow for the incidental taking of that orderly development of OCS energy northern and western Alaska. In Alaska, walrus, any such authorizations for resources be balanced with protection of consistency determinations are increasing shipping activities or human, marine, and coastal reviewed for compliance with the anthropogenic noise from industry environments. Specifically, Title II of Alaska Coastal Management Program would be required to be based on a the OCSLA provides for the cancellation (Alaska Stat. section 46.39–40). The of leases or permits if continued activity determination that impacts to the Alaska Coastal Management Plan is is likely to cause serious harm to life, Pacific walrus would be negligible and developed in partnership with Alaska’s including fish and other aquatic life. It would not have an immitigable adverse natural resource agencies, the Alaska also requires economic, social, and Department of Environmental impact on the availability of Pacific environmental values of the renewable walrus for the taking for subsistence Conservation, the ADFG, and the and nonrenewable resources to be Department of Natural Resources uses, consistent with the procedures considered in management of the OCS. outlined previously regarding the (Alaska Coastal Management Plan 2005, Through consistency determinations, p. A85). The CZMA applies to walrus promulgation of take regulations and any license or permit issued under the incidental harassment authorizations. habitats of northern and western Alaska OCSLA must be consistent with State by ensuring that any permitted actions Similarly, the potential for coastal management plans (see also the are consistent with the State of Alaska’s commercial fishing to expand into the Coastal Zone Management Act below). CZMP, which, among other things, sets Chukchi and Beaufort Seas could Thus, the OCSLA helps to increase the standards that require exposed high impact the Pacific walrus, as discussed likelihood that projects on the OCS do energy coasts to be managed so as to later in this finding. However, the not adversely impact Pacific walruses or avoid, minimize, or mitigate significant MMPA has protections in place to limit their habitats. adverse impacts to the mix and any potential incidental impacts of Oil Pollution Act of 1990 transport of sediments. As such, these future commercial fisheries. requirements provide potential Specifically, section 118 of the MMPA The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA) protection to current or future coastal (16 U.S.C. 1387) calls for commercial (33 U.S.C. 2701) provides enhanced haulouts. fisheries to reduce any incidental capabilities for oil spill response and natural resource damage assessment by Alaska National Interest Lands mortality or serious injury of marine Conservation Act mammals to insignificant levels the Service. The OPA requires the approaching zero. In its 2004 report to Service to consult on developing a fish The Alaska National Interest Lands Congress regarding the commercial and wildlife response plan for the Conservation Act of 1980 (ANILCA) (16 National Contingency Plan, provide fisheries’ progress toward reducing U.S.C. 3101 et seq.) created or expanded input to Area Contingency Plans, review mortality and serious injury of marine National Parks and National Wildlife Facility and Tank Vessel Contingency mammals, the National Oceanic and Refuges in Alaska, including the Plans, and conduct damage assessments expansion of the Togiak National Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the purpose of obtaining damages for Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and the Alaska concluded that: (1) Most fisheries have the restoration of natural resources Maritime NWR. One of the purposes of achieved levels of incidental mortality injured from oil spills. However, we these National Wildlife Refuges under consistent with the Zero Mortality Rate note that there are limited abilities to the ANILCA is the conservation of Goal; (2) substantial progress has been respond to a catastrophic oil spill event marine mammals and their habitat. made in reducing incidental mortality described in the plan (Alaska Regional Walrus haulouts at Cape Peirce and through Take Reduction Plans; and Response Team 2002, pp. G–71, G–72). Cape Newenham are located within (3) additional information will be The U.S. Coast Guard, despite planning Togiak NWR while haulouts at Cape needed for most fisheries and stocks of efforts, has limited offshore capability to Lisburne occur in the Alaska Maritime marine mammals to accurately assess respond in the event of a large oil spill NWR. Access to the Cape Peirce is whether mortality incidental to in northern or western Alaska, and we tightly controlled through a permitted commercial fishing is at insignificant only marginally understand the science visitor program. Refuge staff require that levels approaching a zero mortality and of recovering oil in broken ice visitors must remain out of sight, serious injury rate (NOAA 2004, (O’Rourke 2010, p. 23). downwind, and a minimum of 107 m Executive Summary). Thus, while (100 yards) from walruses. Visitors are commercial fishing could expand in the Coastal Zone Management Act advised that disturbances to walruses or future, such expansions would need to The Coastal Zone Management Act of seals are a violation of the MMPA be consistent with existing fisheries 1972 (CZMA) (16 U.S.C. 1451 et seq.) (Miller 2010, pers. comm.). Cape elsewhere in the United States that must was enacted to ‘‘preserve, protect, Newenham has no established refuge limit their impacts to marine mammals. develop, and where possible, to restore visitor program, because public access is

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extremely limited due to the presence of Additionally, the Sustainable State of Alaska Department of Defense lands Fisheries Act of 1996 amended the While the Service has the primary surrounding the Cape. As discussed MSFCMA, requiring the NOAA to authority to manage Pacific walrus in under Factor A above, the change in the describe and identify Essential Fish the United States, the State of Alaska nature and location of walrus haulouts Habitat, which includes those waters has regulatory programs that in response to changing ice conditions and substrates necessary to fish for compliment Federal regulations and is anticipated into the foreseeable spawning, breeding, feeding, or growth work in concert to provide conservation future. Significant portions of the to maturity. ‘‘Waters’’ include aquatic for walrus and their habitats. For Chukchi Sea coastal zone in Alaska are areas and their associated physical, example, as discussed above, the State’s National Wildlife Refuge lands created chemical, and biological properties. Coastal Zone Management Plan works to under ANILCA, and they have the ‘‘Substrate’’ includes sediment ensure that beach integrity is ability to provide haulout locations that underlying the waters. ‘‘Necessary’’ maintained. Additionally, oil and gas are free from human disturbance. means the habitat required to support a lease permits issued by the State of sustainable fishery and the managed Marine Protection, Research and Alaska in State waters or along the species’ contribution to a healthy Sanctuaries Act coastal plain contain specific ecosystem. Spawning, breeding, feeding, requirements for Pacific walrus that, for The Marine Protection, Research and or growth to maturity covers all habitat example, prohibit above-ground lease- Sanctuaries Act (MPRSA) (33 U.S.C. types utilized by a species throughout related facilities and structures within 1 1401 et seq.) was enacted in part to its life cycle, and includes not only the mile inland from the coast, in an area ‘‘prevent or strictly limit the dumping water column but also the benthos extending 1 mile northeast and 1 mile into ocean waters of any material that layers. The NOAA’s ‘‘Final Rule for the southwest of the Cape Seniavin walrus would adversely affect human health, implementation of the Fisheries of the haulout (ADNR 2005, p. 3). In addition, welfare, or amenities, or the marine Exclusive Economic Zone off Alaska; walrus and their habitats are protected environment, ecological systems, or Groundfish Fisheries of the Bering Sea in various State special-use areas. For economic potentialities.’’ The MPRSA and Aleutian Islands Management example, the Walrus Island State Game does not itself regulate the take of Area,’’ published July 25, 2008 (NOAA Sanctuary is a State of Alaska–managed walrus; however, it does help maintain 2008, p. 43362), protects areas adjacent conservation area with regulations in water quality, which likely benefits to walrus haulouts and feeding areas place that allow only limited access to walrus prey. from potential impacts of trawl the sanctuary, prohibit any disturbance fisheries. For example, the St. Lawrence of walrus, and limit access to beaches Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Island Habitat Conservation Area closes Conservation and Management Act and water. These regulations protect waters around the St. Lawrence Island walrus and their haulouts (5 AAC The Magnuson Fishery Conservation to federally permitted vessels using 92.066, Permit for access to Walrus and Management Act in 1976 (renamed nonpelagic trawl gear. Such closures Islands State Game Sanctuary). the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery provide important refuge for the walrus, Conservation and Management Act but, more importantly, protect feeding Summary of Factor D (MSFCMA)) (16 U.S.C. 1800 et seq.) habitat from disturbance. As explained in Factor A, the sea-ice established the North Pacific Fishery Russian Federation habitat of the Pacific walrus has been Management Council (NPFMC), one of modified by the warming climate, and eight regional councils established by The walrus in Russia is a protected sea-ice losses are projected to continue the MSFCMA to oversee management of species managed primarily by the into the foreseeable future. There the U.S. fisheries. With jurisdiction over Fisheries Department within the currently are no regulatory mechanisms the 2,331,000-sq-km (900,000-sq-mi) Ministry of Agriculture. Regulations in place to effectively reduce or limit Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off regarding the subsistence harvest of GHG emissions. This situation was Alaska, the NPFMC has primary walrus were discussed previously. considered as part of our analysis in responsibility for groundfish There is currently no commercial Factor A. Accordingly, there are no management in the Gulf of Alaska harvest of walrus authorized in Russia existing regulatory mechanisms to (GOA) and Bering Sea and Aleutian (Kochnev 2010, pers. comm.). effectively address loss of sea-ice Islands (BSAI), including Pacific cod Important terrestrial haulout sites in habitat. (Gadus macrocephalus), pollock, Russia are also protected, and human As explained in Factor B, harvest, mackerel (Pleurogrammus disturbance is minimized. For example, while currently sustainable, is identified monopterygius), sablefish (Anoplopoma Wrangel Island, an area which has seen as a threat within the foreseeable future fimbria), and rockfish (Sebastolobus and large influxes of walrus, as discussed because we anticipate that harvest levels Sebastes species) species harvested above, has been a nature reserve since will continue at current levels while the mainly by trawlers, hook and line, 1979 and prohibits human disturbance population declines due to sea-ice loss; longliners, and pot fishermen. In 2009, (United Nations Environmental Program as a result, the proportion of animals the NPFMC released its Fishery 2005, p. 1). Additionally, the haulouts at harvested will increase. Harvest in Management Plan for Fish Resources of Cape Kozhevnikov near the village of Russia is managed for sustainability the Arctic Management Area, covering Ryrkaipyi and Cape Vankarem near the through a quota system. Harvest in the all U.S. waters north of the Bering Strait. village of Vankarem were recently United States is well-monitored and Management policy for this region is to granted protections by the Government limited to subsistence harvest by Alaska prohibit all commercial harvest of fish of Chukotka to minimize disturbance, Natives, with further restrictions on use until sufficient information is available and a local conservation organization and sale of walrus parts; however, the to support the sustainable management known as the ‘‘UMKY Patrol’’ has U.S. harvest is not directly limited by of a commercial fishery (NPFMC 2009, organized a quiet zone and quota. Emerging local harvest p. 3). The policy helps to protect walrus implemented visitor guidelines to management efforts offer a promising from potential impacts of commercial reduce disturbance (Patrol 2008, p. 1; approach to developing harvest fishery activities. Kavry 2010, pers. comm.). management initiatives. Effectiveness of

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such measures can be evaluated with Pollution and Contaminants at Nunavut in the Eastern Canadian existing harvest monitoring and Understanding the potential effects of Arctic were no higher in the 1980s and reporting programs. In the Bering Strait contaminants on walruses is 1990s compared to A.D. 1200–1500, Region, where the vast majority of U.S. confounded by the wide range of ‘‘indicating an absence of industrial Hg harvest and 43 percent of the rangewide contaminants present, each with in the species at this location.’’ Increases harvest occurs, local ordinances different chemical properties and of mercury were seen in beluga teeth recently adopted by two Native villages biological effects, and the differing from the Beaufort Sea over the same reflect the important role of self- geographic, temporal, and ecological time span (Outridge et al. 2002, p. 123). regulation in managing the subsistence exposure regimes. Nevertheless, There was also no change in mercury in harvest, and will be important in the Robards et al. (2009, p. 1) in their walruses from Greenland from 1973 to development of harvest management assessment of contaminant information 2000 (Riget et al. 2007, p. 76). Born et strategies in the future. However, there available for Pacific walruses conclude al. (1981, p. 225) found low methyl mercury accumulation in Atlantic are currently no tribal, Federal, or State that Pacific walruses contain generally walruses compared to seals in regulations in place to ensure the low contaminant levels; however, an Greenland and the eastern Canadian likelihood that, as the population of absence of data limited definitive Arctic. walrus declines in response to changing conclusions about the effects current sea-ice conditions, the subsistence The presence of cadmium has been of contaminant had on Pacific walruses. concern to subsistence hunters who eat harvest of walrus will occur at a Of particular concern in the Arctic are Pacific walruses, though it does not reduced and sustainable level. As a persistent organic pollutants (POPs), appear to be having effects on walrus result, we conclude that current because they do not break down in the health. Mollusks accumulate cadmium, regulatory mechanisms are inadequate environment and are toxic. ‘‘Legacy’’ to address the threat of subsistence so it is not surprising that walruses had POPs (those no longer used in the relatively high levels. However, harvest becoming unsustainable in the United States) include polychlorinated foreseeable future, as the Pacific walrus Lipscomb (1995, p. 1) found no biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine histopathological (effects of disease on population declines due to sea-ice pesticides such as DDT, chlordanes, habitat loss and associated impacts. tissue) effects in Pacific walrus liver and toxaphene, and mirex. POPS with kidney tissues, although liver While laws and regulations exist that continued use include concentrations were great enough to help to minimize the effect of other hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs). cause concern about contamination stressors on the Pacific walrus, there are Although numerous POPs have been levels, walrus health, and the no regulatory mechanisms currently in detected in the Arctic environment, consumption of walrus. Over the time place that adequately address the concentrations of POPs found in Pacific period 1981 to 1991, cadmium in Pacific primary threats of habitat loss due to walrus are relatively low (Seagars and walrus liver declined from 41.2 to 19.9 sea-ice declines (Factor A) and Garlich-Miller 2001, p. 129; Taylor et al. milligrams/kg dry weight (Robards subsistence harvest (Factor B). As a 1989, pp. 465–468) because walruses 2006, p. 24). result, we conclude that the existing generally feed at relatively lower trophic Radionuclide (a radioactive regulatory mechanisms do not remove levels than other marine mammals. In substance) sources include atmospheric or reduce the threats to the Pacific 1981, Atlantic walruses had the lowest fallout from Chernobyl, nuclear walrus from the loss of sea-ice habitat concentrations of organochlorines in weapons testing, and nuclear waste and overutilization. any pinniped measured (Born et al. dumps in Russia (Hamilton et al. 2008, Factor E. Other Natural or Manmade 1981, p. 255), and recent data show p. 1161). Pacific walrus muscle had Factors Affecting Its Continued walruses had much lower levels of non-naturally occurring cesium 137 Existence. brominated compounds and levels lower than did bearded seals perfluorinated sulfonates (PFSA) than (Erignathus barbatus) sampled from the We evaluated other factors that may other Arctic marine mammals (Letcher same area, and lower than seals from have an effect on the Pacific walrus, et al., 2010, In press). Some Atlantic Greenland sampled one to two decades including pollution and contaminants; walrus individuals and populations earlier (Hamilton et al. 2008, p. 1162). oil and gas exploration, development, specialize in feeding on pelagic fish and Barring new major accidents or releases, and production; commercial fisheries ringed seals, moving them higher in the with decay of anthropogenic interactions; shipping; oil spills; and food chain than the Pacific walrus, radionuclides from fallout and icebreaking activities. The potential resulting in greater POP concentrations Chernobyl and improved regulation and effects of many of the stressors under (Dietz et al. 2000, p. 221). For example, cleanup of waste sources, radionuclide this factor are tied directly to changes in PCBs and DDT concentrations in Pacific activities are expected to continue to sea ice. Potential increases in walruses were lower than decline in Arctic biota (AMAP 2009, p. commercial shipping due to the opening concentrations found in Atlantic 66). of shipping lanes that have been walruses from Greenland and Hudson Tributyltin (TBT; from ship unavailable in the past are one example. Bay, Canada, collected in the 1980s antifouling paints) is ubiquitous in the In addition, oil and gas exploration and (Muir et al. 1995, p. 335). marine environment (Takahashi et al. development activities are in part Heavy metals of concern in Arctic 1999, p. 50; Strand and Asmund 2003, dependent on ice conditions, as is the marine mammals include mercury (Hg), p. 31), although TBT and its toxic potential for expanding commercial cadmium, and lead. Defining mercury metabolites are found at greatest fisheries. Because the potential effects of trends is complicated by mercury’s concentrations in harbors and near these stressors are related to sea-ice complex environmental chemistry, shore shipping channels (Takahashi et losses, our ability to reliably predict the although in general anthropogenic al. 1999, p. 52; Strand and Asmund potential level and influence of these mercury is increasing in the Arctic, as 2003, p. 34). Pacific walruses will likely stressors is tied to our ability to predict it is globally (AMAP 2005, p. 17), see increased exposure to this environmental changes associated with primarily due to combustion processes. contaminant class as shipping increases sea-ice losses, as discussed previously Temporally, mercury concentrations in in their habitats as a result of longer ice- under Factor A. fossils and fresh walrus teeth collected free seasons due to climate change.

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Climate-related change will affect foreseeable development scenarios only small numbers of walruses with no long-range and oceanic transport of prepared for this lease sale, which more than a negligible impact on the contaminants, and may provide project exploration, development, and stock (73 FR 33212 (2008)). Prior to additional sources of contaminants. production activities to last through commencing exploration activities, Increasing water temperatures may roughly 2049 (USFWS, Final Biological operators are currently required by the increase methylation of mercury, which Opinion for Beaufort and Chukchi Sea Bureau of Ocean Energy, Management, increases the availability of mercury for Program Area Lease Sales and Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE, bioaccumulation (Sunderland et al. Associated Seismic Surveys and formerly MMS) to obtain letters of 2009, p. 1) and may release Exploratory Drilling, Anchorage, Alaska, authorization (LOA) pursuant to the contaminants from melting pack ice September 3, 2009, pp. 10–11). ITRs or an incidental harassment (Metcalf and Robards 2008, p. S153). It In the Chukotka Russia region, the oil authorization (IHA) (Wall 2011, pers. is projected that Cesium 137 from and gas industry is targeting regions of comm.). If operators commence nuclear weapons testing fallout and the Bering and Chukchi Seas for operations without such authorization, Chernobyl may be liberated from storage exploration. Recently, there has been their operations may be shut down, in trees as the incidence of forest fires renewed interest in exploring for oil and (Wall 2011, pers. comm.), and any take increases due to climate change (AMAP gas in the Russian Chukchi Sea, as new of walrus would be in violation of the 2009, p. 66). evidence suggests that the region may MMPA. Although few data exist with which to harbor large reserves. In 2006, seismic While we anticipate oil and gas evaluate the status of the Pacific walrus exploration was conducted in the exploration activities to occur in the population in relation to contaminants, Russian Chukchi to explore for Chukchi Sea in the foreseeable future, information available indicates that economically viable oil and gas reserves we expect industry to request that the Pacific walruses have generally low (Frantzen 2007, p. 1). ITRs be renewed, so that any non-lethal, concentrations of contaminants of Currently, Pacific walruses do not incidental take associated with concern. Further, based on the general normally range into the Beaufort Sea, exploration is authorized under the observations of a lack of effect on although individuals and small groups MMPA. The ITRs could not be renewed, individual animals, there is currently no have been observed there. From 1994 to and LOAs could not be issued, unless a evidence of population-level effects in 2004, industry monitoring programs determination were made that the walruses from contaminants of any type. recorded a total of 9 walrus sightings, activities would result in the take of Climate change, with projected involving a total of 10 animals. No only small numbers of walrus and have increases in mobilization of disturbance events or lethal takes have a negligible impact on the stock. contaminants to and within the Arctic, been reported to date (USFWS 2008, p. Monitoring studies performed to date combined with potential changes in 33212). Because of the small numbers of have documented minimal effects of Pacific walrus prey base, may lead to walruses encountered by past and various exploration activities on increased exposure. However, potential present oil and gas activity in the walruses (USFWS 2008, p. 33212). In effects are likely to be limited by the Beaufort Sea, impacts to the Pacific 1989 and 1990, aerial surveys and trophic status and distribution of walrus population appear to have been vessel-based observations of walruses walruses: As benthic feeders that minimal (USFWS 2008, p. 33212). Even were carried out to examine the specialize on prey lower in the food with less ice, it is unlikely that walrus animals’ response to drilling operations web, walruses would have a low rate of numbers will increase significantly in at three Chukchi Sea prospects. Aerial bioaccumulation and therefore limited the Beaufort Sea, as habitat is limited by surveys documented several thousand exposure to contaminants. Based on our a relatively narrow continental shelf, walruses (a small percentage of the estimation of low current contaminant which results in deep and less- estimated population) in the vicinity of loads and the likelihood of minimal productive waters. Therefore, we do not the drilling prospects. The monitoring future exposure as walruses feed on anticipate significant interactions with, reports concluded that: (1) Walrus lower trophic levels, we conclude that or impacts from, oil and gas activities in distributions were closely linked with contaminants are not a threat now and the Beaufort Sea on the Pacific walrus pack ice; (2) pack ice was near active are not likely to be a threat to the Pacific population. drill prospects for relatively short time walrus population in the foreseeable Pacific walruses are seasonally periods; and (3) ice passing near active future. abundant in the Chukchi Sea. prospects contained relatively few Exploratory oil and gas operations in the animals. Walruses either avoided areas Oil and Gas Exploration, Development, Chukchi Sea have routinely of operations or were passively carried and Production encountered Pacific walruses; however, away by the ice floes, and because only Oil and gas related activities have potential impacts to walruses are a small proportion of the population been conducted in the Beaufort and regulated through the MMPA. was near the operations, and for short Chukchi Seas since the late 1960s, with Specifically, incidental take regulations periods of time, the effects of the most activity occurring in the Beaufort (ITRs) have been promulgated for the drilling operations on walruses were Sea (USFWS 2008, p. 33212). Three non-lethal, incidental take of walruses limited in time, area, and proportion of existing projects are located off the coast from oil and gas exploration activities in the population (USFWS 2008, p. 33212). of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea (Endicott, the Chukchi Sea, including geophysical, However, if walrus are forced to avoid Northstar, and Oooguruk). Current and seismic, exploratory drilling and areas of operations and associated foreseeable future activity in the associated support activities for the 5- disturbance by abandoning ice haulouts Chukchi Sea is related to Lease Sale year period ending in June 2013. In a and swimming to other areas, they will 193, the first Chukchi Sea lease sale detailed analysis of the effects of such likely experience increased energetic since 1991 (MMS 2008, p. 1). While no activities, including noise, physical costs related to active swimming as development of leases issued pursuant obstructions, human encounters, and oil opposed to passive transport on ice to the lease sale has occurred to date, spills, the Service concluded that floes. future activity is anticipated. Our ability exploration activities would be Disturbances caused by vessel and air to predict effects of these activities on sufficiently limited in time and scope traffic may cause walrus groups to walrus is based, in part, on reasonably that they would result in the take of abandon land or ice haulouts. One study

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suggests that walruses may be tolerant time. The potential for an oil spill greatest if walrus are aggregated in of ship activities; Brueggeman et al. increases as offshore oil and gas coastal haulouts where oil comes to (1991, p. 139) reported that 75 percent development and shipping activities shore. Overall, the chance of a large oil of walruses encountered by vessels in increase. No large oil spills have spill occurring in the Pacific walrus’ the Chukchi Sea exhibited no reaction occurred in areas inhabited by walruses; range in the foreseeable future, however, to ship activities within 1 km (0.6 mi) however, a large oil spill could result in is considered low. or less. This conclusion is corroborated acute mortalities and chronic exposure In summary, oil and gas activities by another study, which reported that could substantially reduce the have occurred sporadically throughout observations that walruses in water Pacific walrus population for many the range of the Pacific walrus. Specific generally show little concern about years (Garlich-Miller et al. 2011, Section studies on the effects of exploratory potential disturbance from approaching 3.6.2.3.3 ‘‘Oil Spills’’). A spill that oiled drilling activities and associated vessels and will dive or swim away if coastal haulouts occupied by females shipping and seismic surveys have a vessel is nearing a collision with them and calves could be particularly documented minimal effects on (Fay et al. 1984, p. 118). significant and could have the potential walrus—namely, transitory behavioral Open-water seismic exploration, to impact benthic communities upon changes that were temporary in nature. which produces underwater sounds which walruses depend. As discussed Exploration activities are currently typically with air gun arrays, may below, oil spill cleanup in the broken- regulated under the MMPA, and the potentially affect marine mammals. ice and open-water conditions that take of walrus during exploration Walruses produce a variety of sounds characterize walrus habitat would be activities is only authorized if operators (grunts, rasps, clicks), which range in more difficult than in other areas, have first obtained an LOA or an IHA. frequency from 0.1 to 10.0 Hertz (Hz, primarily because effective strategies These authorizations are only issued for sine wave of a sound) (Richardson et al. have yet to be developed. The Coast the non-lethal, incidental take of walrus, 1995, p. 108). The effects of seismic Guard has no offshore response where the activities are considered surveys on walrus hearing and capability in northern or western Alaska likely to result in the take of small communications have not been studied. (O’Rourke 2010, p. 23). numbers of walrus with a negligible Seismic surveys in the Beaufort and According to BOEMRE, if oil and gas impact on the stock. We expect that Chukchi Seas will not impact development of leases issued pursuant future exploration to be similarly vocalizations associated with breeding to Chukchi Lease Sale 193 occurs, the regulated under the MMPA. Therefore, activity (one of the most important chance of one or more large oil spills we conclude that impacts of oil and gas times of communication), because (greater than or equal to 1,000 barrels) exploration likely to occur over the walruses do not currently breed in the occurring over the production life of the foreseeable future will have minimal open water areas that are subject to development is between 35 and 40 effects on walruses. Further, although a survey. Injury from seismic surveys percent (MMS 2007, p. IV–156). significant oil spill in the Chukchi Sea would likely occur only if animals However, the estimated probability that from exploration, development or entered the zone immediately oil reserves sufficient for development production activities could have a surrounding the sound source (Southall will be discovered range from 1 to 10 detrimental impact on Pacific walrus, et al. 2007, p. 441). Walrus behavioral percent (MMS 2007, p. IV–156), depending on timing and location, the responses to dispersal and diving reducing the chance of a large oil spill potential for such a spill is low. As a vessels associated with seismic surveys to 0.33 to 4 percent. result, we conclude that oil and gas were monitored in the Chukchi Sea OCS Our analysis of oil and gas exploration, development, and in 2006. Based upon the transitory development potential and subsequent production are not threats to the Pacific nature of the survey vessels, and the risks was based on the analysis walrus now, nor are they likely to behavioral reactions of the animals to BOEMRE (MMS 2007, p. 1–631) become threats in the foreseeable future. the passage of the vessels, we conclude conducted for the Chukchi Sea lease Commercial Fisheries that the interactions resulted in sales. Following the Deepwater Horizon temporary changes in animal behavior incident in the Gulf of Mexico, offshore Commercial fisheries occur primarily with no lasting impacts to the species oil and gas activities have come under in ice-free waters and during the open- (Ireland et al. 2009, pp. xiii–xvi). increased scrutiny. Policy and water season, which limits the overlap Future seismic surveys are anticipated management changes are under way between fishery operations and to have minimal impacts to walrus. within the Department of the Interior walruses. Where they do overlap, Surveys will occur in areas of open that will likely affect the timing and fisheries may impact Pacific walruses water, where walrus densities are scope of future offshore oil and gas through interactions that result in the relatively low. Monitoring requirements activities. In addition, BOEMRE has incidental take of walrus or through (vessel-based observers) and mitigation been restructured to increase the competition for prey resources or measures (operations are halted when effectiveness of oversight activities, destruction of benthic prey habitat. A close to walrus) in U.S. waters are eliminate conflicts of interest, and complete list of fisheries is published expected to minimize any potential increase environmental protections annually by NOAA Fisheries. The most interactions with large aggregations of (USDOI 2010, p. 1). As a result, we recent edition (NOAA 2009a, p. 58859), walruses. Because seismic operations anticipate that the potential for a showed about nine fisheries that have likely would not be concentrated in any significant oil spill will remain small; the potential to occur within the range one area for extended periods, any however, we recognize that should a of the Pacific walrus. impacts to walruses would likely be spill occur, there are no effective Currently, incidental take in the form relatively short in duration and have a strategies for oil spill cleanup in the of mortality from commercial fishing is negligible overall impact on the Pacific broken-ice conditions that characterize low. Pacific walruses occasionally walrus population. walrus habitat. In addition, the potential interact with trawl and longline gear of Currently, there are no active offshore impacts to Pacific walrus from a spill groundfish fisheries. In Alaska each oil and gas developments in the U.S. could be significant, particularly if year, fishery observers monitor a Bering or Chukchi Seas. Therefore, the subsequent cleanup efforts are percentage of commercial fisheries and risk of an oil spill is low at the present ineffective. Potential impacts would be report injury and mortality of marine

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mammals affected incidental to these Federal fisheries occur near Cape commercial fisheries does not appear to operations. Incidental mortality to Seniavin, but State of Alaska–managed be a threat to the Pacific walrus Pacific walruses during 2002–2006 was salmon fisheries do occur in the population now or in the foreseeable recorded for only one fishery, the Bering immediate vicinity and pose a potential future. Sea/Aleutian Island flatfish trawl for disturbance. In general, however, Commercial fisheries—specifically fishery, which is a Category II within Bristol Bay, the proportion of pelagic (mid-water trawl) and Commercial Fishery with 34 vessels or walruses potentially affected is small nonpelagic (bottom trawl) fisheries— persons. During the years 2002–2006, relative to the population. The have the potential to indirectly affect observer coverage for this fishery population is also comprised walruses through destruction or averaged 64.7 percent. The mean predominantly of males, which are less modification of benthic prey or their number of observed mortalities was 1.8 susceptible to trampling injuries as a habitat. Pelagic or mid-water trawls walrus per year, with a range of 0 to 3 result of disturbance; however, repeated make frequent contact with the bottom, walrus per year. The total estimated disturbance events have the potential to as evidenced by the presence of benthic annual fishery-related incidental result in haulout abandonment. species (e.g., crabs, halibut) that are mortality in Alaska was 2.66 walrus per State-managed nearshore herring and brought up as bycatch. NFMS estimates year (USFWS 2010, pp. 3–4). salmon gillnet fisheries also have the that approximately 44 percent of the In addition to incidental take from potential to take walruses. The ADFG area shadowed by the gear receives fishing activities, however, fishery does not have an observer or self- bottom contact from the footrope (NMFS vessel traffic has the potential to take reporting program to record marine 2005, pp. B–11). The majority of the Pacific walruses through collisions and mammal interactions, but it is believed pelagic trawl effort in the eastern Bering disturbance of resting, foraging, or that gear interactions with walruses Sea is directed at walleye pollock in travelling behaviors. We consider the have not occurred in the recent past waters of 50–300 m (164–960 ft) (Olsen likelihood of collisions between fishing (Murphy 2010, pers. comm.; Sands 2009, p. 1). The area north of Unimak vessels and walruses to be very low, 2010, pers. comm.). Spotter planes used Island along the continental shelf edge however, as we unaware of any in the spring herring fishery in Bristol receives high fishing effort (Olsen 2009, documented ship strikes, and it has Bay have the potential to cause p. 1). This puts the majority of pelagic been observed that walruses typically disturbance at terrestrial haulouts. To fishing effort on the periphery of dive or swim off to the side if a shipping mitigate this potential, the Service walrus-preferred habitat, as walruses are vessel comes close to colliding with developed and distributed guidelines usually found over the continental shelf them (Fay et al. 1984, p. 118). Fisheries for appropriate use of aircraft within the in waters of 100 m (328 ft) or less (Fay occurring near terrestrial haulouts may vicinity of Bristol Bay walrus haulouts and Burns 1988, pp. 239–240; Jay et al. affect animals approaching, leaving, or (USFWS 2009, p. 1), and these were in 2001, p. 621). resting at the haulouts. effect during the fishing season. Nonpelagic fisheries also have the The Bristol Bay region in the Bering In summary, given the current low potential to indirectly affect walruses by Sea is home to some of the largest U.S. rates of walrus encounters and deaths destroying or modifying benthic prey or land haulouts and several fisheries. For associated with commercial fishing, we their habitat, or both. The predominant some haulouts, regulations are in place expect that any increase in the level of effects of nonpelagic trawl include to minimize disturbance. Round Island fishery-related mortality to walrus will ‘‘smoothing of sediments, moving and is buffered from all fishing activities by occur at a very low level relative to the turning of rocks and boulders, a 0-to-3-nautical-mile ‘‘no transit’’ total walrus population. Similarly, resuspension and mixing of sediments, closure. Capes Peirce and Newenham although walrus may be subject to removal of sea grasses, damage to corals, and Round Island are buffered from disturbance from commercial fishing, and damage or removal of epigenetic fishing activities in Federal waters from the proportion of walrus affected is low, organisms’’ (Mecum 2009, p. 57). 3 to 12 nautical miles; however, this and efforts are under way to minimize Numerous studies on the effects of trawl buffer only applies to vessels with the impacts. Accordingly, we do not gear on infauna have been conducted, Federal fisheries permits. The haulout at consider fishery-related take of walrus and all note a reduction in mass Hagemeister Island has no protection to be a threat to the Pacific walrus (Brylinsky et al. 1994, p. 650; Bergman zone in either Federal or State waters. population now or in the foreseeable and van Santbrink 2000, p. 1321; Large catcher/processer vessels future. McConnaughey et al. 2000, p. 1054; associated with the yellowfin sole Commercial fisheries may also impact Kenchington et al. 2001, p. 1043). Two fishery, as well as smaller fishing walruses through competition for prey such studies comparing microfaunal vessels 32 ft or less in length routinely resources or destruction of benthic prey populations between unfished and pass between the haulout and the habitat. With regard to competition, heavily fished areas in the eastern mainland to a site for offloading product there is little overlap between Bering Sea reported that, overall, the to foreign vessels. Anecdotal reports commercial fish species and Pacific heavily trawled and untrawled areas indicate potential disturbance of walrus prey species. The principal prey were significantly different. In relation walruses using the Hagemeister haulout items consumed by weaned walruses to walrus prey, the abundance of (Wilson and Evans 2009b, p. 28). To are bivalves, gastropods, and polychaete neptunid snails was significantly lower address concerns of disturbance worms (Fay 1982, p. 145; Sheffield and in the heavily trawled area, and mean associated with the yellowfin sole fleet, Grebmeier 2009, p. 767). Fay (1982, pp. body size was smaller, as was the trend the Service has engaged the North 153–154) notes that the scarcity in for a number of bivalve species Pacific Fisheries Management Council walruses of endoparasites of known fish (Macoma, Serripes, Tellina), indicating to examine alternatives to provide origin indicates that walruses rarely a general decline in these species. The increased protection for the haulout at ingest fish. Fay (1982, pp. 152,154) also abundance of Mactromeris was greater Hagemeister Island (Wilson and Evan notes that various authors have reported in the heavily trawled area, but mean 2009a, pp. 1–23); however, no specific occasionally finding several different body size was smaller (McConnaughey measures have been implemented. The crab species in walrus stomachs, but et al. 2000, pp. 1381–1382; haulout at Cape Seniavin currently has apparently at low frequency. Thus, McConnaughey et al. 2005, pp. 430– no Federal or State protection zones. No direct competition for prey from 431).

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The areas open to nonpelagic Management Area, which was released Shipping trawling, however, are limited. The by the NPFMC in 2009. Management Commercial shipping and marine Final Environmental Impact Statement policy for this region is to prohibit all transportation vessels include oil and (EIS) for Essential Fish Habitat commercial harvest of fish until gas tankers, container ships, cargo ships, Identification and Conservation in sufficient information is available to cruise ships, research vessels, Alaska concluded that nonpelagic support the sustainable management of icebreakers, and commercial fishing trawling in the southern Bering Sea has a commercial fishery (NPFMC 2009, vessels. These vessels may travel to or long-term effects on benthic habitat p. 3). At some point, the Arctic from destinations within the Arctic features, but little impact on fish stock Management Area may be opened to (destination traffic), or may use the productivity. The EIS concludes that the commercial fishing, but to date the Arctic as a passageway between the reduction of infaunal and epifanual prey NPFMC has taken a conservative stance. Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for managed fish species would be 0 to It is unclear whether the Arctic (nondestination traffic). While the level 3 percent (NMFS 2005, p. 10; Mecum Management Area will open to of shipping activity is currently limited, 2009, p. 47). While not a direct measure commercial fishing at all, and if so, the potential exists for increased activity of impacts to walrus prey, the analysis in the future if changes in sea-ice provides some insight on the level of when it would be opened. If commercial patterns open new shipping lanes and impact to benthic species and indicates fishing does open up in this area, result in a longer navigable season. that impacts are likely to be minimal. however, we would work with the Nonpelagic trawls are designed to NPFMC to ensure that any necessary Whether, and to what extent, marine remain on the bottom of the ocean floor, measures to minimize negative effects to transportation levels may change in the but they may bring up walrus prey items Pacific walrus are implemented. Arctic depends on a number of factors, including the extent of sea-ice melt, as bycatch, albeit in very small Accordingly, although commercial global trade dynamics, infrastructure quantities. Wilson and Evans (2009, p. fisheries—specifically pelagic and 15) report bycatch of walrus prey items development, the safety of Arctic nonpelagic trawl fisheries—have the shipping lanes, the marine insurance in the nonpelagic trawl fishery in the potential to indirectly affect walruses Northern Bristol Bay Trawl Area industry, and ship technology. Given through destruction or modification of these uncertainties, forecasts of future (NBBTA). Data were collected through benthic prey or their habitat, those the NMFS Fisheries Observer program shipping levels in the Arctic are highly fisheries do not appear to be a threat to speculative (Arctic Council 2009, p. 1). and are aggregated for the years 2001 to Pacific walrus now or in the foreseeable 2009. Bivalves (mussels, oysters, Two major shipping lanes in the future, because of limited overlap scallops, and clams) accounted for 334 Arctic intersect the range of Pacific between the areas currently open to kg (735 lb) of the 457 kg (1005 lb) (73 walrus: The Northwest Passage, which percent) of total bycatch reported; trawling and areas of walrus prey runs parallel to the Alaskan Coast snails, which are consumed by habitat as well as ongoing efforts to through the Bering Strait up through the walruses, were listed as a bycatch minimize detrimental impacts to walrus Canadian Arctic Archipelago; and the species, but no amounts were reported. prey and benthic habitat. Northern Sea Route, which refers to a This level of bycatch is very low relative In summary, we find that commercial segment of the Northeast Passage to the total amount of prey consumed by fisheries have limited overlap with paralleling the Russian Coast through walrus. The NMFS is currently walrus distribution, and reported direct the Bering Strait and into the Bering Sea developing regulations to require the takes are nominal. Indirect effects on (Garlich-Miller et al. 2011, Section use of modified nonpelagic trawl gear in walruses are also limited, with some 3.6.4.1 ‘‘Scope and Scale of Shipping’’). the Bering Sea subarea for the flatfish site-specific potential effects to walrus Shipping levels in the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route are fishery and for nonpelagic trawl gear near terrestrial haulouts in Bristol Bay. highly dependent on the extent of sea- fishing in the northern Bering Sea Indirect effects to prey and benthic ice cover. Walrus occur along both of subarea (Brown 2010, pers. comm.), habitats due to various types of trawls these routes where they pass through which will likely reduce impacts on occur, but are limited with respect to the Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and walrus prey. When implemented, the overlap with the range of walrus and regulations will reopen an area within Chukchi Sea. Given the dependence of walrus feeding habitat. We did not shipping activities on the absence of sea the NBSRA to modified gear nonpelagic identify any direct competition for prey trawl fishing (Brown 2010, pers. comm.; ice, shipping levels are seasonally resources between walruses and variable. Almost all activity occurs in Mecum 2009, pp. 1–194). fisheries. In addition, as fisheries Ecosystem shifts in the Bering Sea are June through September, and to a lesser currently do not occur in the Chukchi expected to extend the distribution of extent, October and November, and fish populations northward and, along Sea, they are not considered a serious April and May. Most walrus are in the with this shift, nonpelagic bottom trawl threat to walrus at this time. We Chukchi Sea during the height of the fisheries are also expected to move recognize the potential future interest by shipping season, although at times they northward (NOAA 2009b, p. 1). Because the fishing industry to initiate fisheries are associated with sea ice or terrestrial we currently lack information on further north as fish distribution haulouts. There is currently no benthic habitats and community ecology changes in association with predicted commercial shipping or marine of the northern Bering Sea, we are changes in ocean conditions. However, transportation in December through unable to forecast the specific impacts based on the limited fishing-related March (Arctic Council 2009, p. 85). that may occur from nonpelagic bottom impacts to walrus that have occurred in Based on predicted sea-ice loss trawling within this area (NOAA 2009b, other areas to date, and the active (Douglas 2010, p. 12), the navigation p. 1) and how it may affect the Pacific engagement of the NPFMC through the period in the Northern Sea Route is walrus. Arctic Fisheries Management Plan, we forecast to increase from 20–30 days to Commercial fisheries in all U.S. conclude that commercial fishing is not 90–100 days per year by 2100. Other waters north of the Bering Strait are now a threat to Pacific walrus and is not factors that may lead to increased vessel covered by the Fishery Management likely to become a threat in the traffic in the Arctic, in addition to Plan for Fish Resources of the Arctic foreseeable future. reduced sea ice, include increased oil

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and gas development, Arctic community off to the side (Fay et al. 1984, p. 118). herd or haze potentially affected population growth and associated Therefore, we expect disturbance to wildlife away from the spill area. Phase development, and increased tourism walruses from shipping to be minimal. Three, the most involved and most (Brigham and Ellis 2004, pp. 8–9; Arctic In situations where negligible impacts to infrequently undertaken phase of oil Council 2009, p. 5). a small number of walrus are spill response for wildlife, includes the No quantitative analyses of changes in anticipated from repeated displacement capture and rehabilitation of oiled shipping levels currently exist. Both the from a preferred feeding area, for individuals. Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment example, or noise disturbance at Even under the most stringent control (AMSA) and the Arctic Marine haulouts, incidental take regulations systems, some tanker spills, pipeline Transport Workshop note that the could potentially be developed for U.S. leaks, and other accidents are likely to greatest potential for increased shipping vessels to permit take caused by occur from equipment leaks or human and marine transportation is the shipping activities, which are subject to error (O’Rourke 2010, p. 16). The history potential use of the Arctic as an the MMPA. These activities likely of oil spills and response in the alternative trade route connecting the would require mandatory monitoring Aleutian Islands raises concerns for Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The and mitigation measures designed to potential spills in the Arctic region: Northwest Passage is not considered a minimize effects to walrus through ‘‘The past 20 years of data on response viable Arctic throughway, given that the vessel-based observers to avoid to spills in the Aleutians has also shown oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic collisions and disturbance. that almost no oil has been recovered is pushed into the western edge of the As a result, shipping is not currently during events where attempts have been Canadian Arctic Archipelago, making a threat to the Pacific walrus made by the responsible parties or the passage dangerous to navigate population, because shipping occurs at government agencies, and that in many (Arctic Council 2009, p. 93). However, low levels, and shipping in support of cases, weather and other conditions the passage was open in 2007 and 2010, other activities (e.g., oil and gas have prevented any response at all’’ due to ice-free conditions. exploration) is sufficiently regulated (O’Rourke 2010, p. 23). Moreover, the The broad range of future shipping and mitigated by MMPA incidental take Commander of the Coast Guard’s 17th scenarios described in the AMSA and regulations. Shipping may increase in District, which covers Alaska, noted in the Arctic Marine Transport Workshop the future, but shipping lanes are an online journal that ‘‘ * * * we are not underscore the uncertainties regarding typically limited to narrow corridors, prepared for a major oil spill [over future shipping levels. The AMSA notes and disturbance from such activities is 100,000 gallons] in the Arctic that while the reduction in sea ice will expected to be low. Moreover, given the environment. The Coast Guard currently provide the opportunity for increased uncertainties identified related to has no offshore response capability in shipping levels, ultimately it is potential future shipping activities, we northern or western Alaska and we only economic factors, such as the feasibility conclude that increased shipping dimly understand the science of of utilizing the Northern Sea Route as an activities are unlikely to cause recovering oil in broken ice’’ (O’Rourke alternative connection between the population-level effects to the Pacific 2010, p. 23). The behavior of oil spills Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, that will walrus in the foreseeable future. In in cold and icy waters is not well determine future shipping levels (Arctic addition, take provisions of the MMPA understood (O’Rourke 2010, p. 23). Council 2009, pp. 120–121). can be effective in regulating shipping Cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered Increased shipping in the Bering and that may disturb haulouts and interrupt waters will be more difficult than in Chukchi Seas has the potential to foraging activity in U.S. waters. other areas, primarily because effective impact Pacific walrus during the spring, strategies have yet to be developed. summer, and fall seasons. An increase Oil Spills The Arctic conditions present several in shipping will result in increased To date, there have been relatively hurdles to oil cleanup efforts. In colder potential for disturbance in the water few oil spills caused by marine vessel water temperatures, there are fewer and at terrestrial haulouts. According to travel in the Bering and Chukchi seas. organisms to break down the oil through Garlich-Miller et al. (2011, Section Within the seasonal range of walrus, microbial degradation and oil 3.2.1.2.3 ‘‘Summer/Fall’’), recent trends there were approximately six vessel oil evaporates at a slower rate. Although suggest that most of the Pacific walrus spill incidents between 1995 and 2004: slower evaporation may allow for more population will be foraging in open two caused by fires, two by machinery oil to be recovered, evaporation removes water from coastal haulouts along the damage or failure, one by grounding, the lighter, more toxic hydrocarbons Chukotka coast during the shipping and one by damage to the vessel. These that are present in crude oil (O’Rourke season. Because the Northern Sea Route incidents were small in scale and did 2010, p. 24). The longer the oil remains passes through this area, it is reasonable not cause widespread impacts to walrus in an ecosystem, the more opportunity to expect walruses may be encountered or their habitat. In general, the pattern there is for exposure. Oil spills may get along this route (Garlich-Miller et al. of past vessel incidents corresponds to trapped in ice, evaporating only when 2011, Figure 9). According to one study, areas of high vessel traffic. Given the ice thaws, and in some cases, oil however, walruses may be tolerant of anticipated increases in marine vessel could remain in the ice for years. Icy ship activities, as 75 percent of walruses travel within the range of Pacific walrus conditions enhance emulsification—the encountered by vessels in the Chukchi due to sea-ice decline, it is likely that process of forming different states of Sea exhibited no reaction to ship the number of vessel incidents will water in oil, often described as activities within 1 km (0.6 mi) or less increase in the foreseeable future. ‘‘mousse.’’ Emulsification creates oil (Brueggeman et al. 1991, p. 139). This is Oil spill response for walruses, and cleanup challenges by increasing the confirmed by another study, which for wildlife in general, can be broken volume of the oil/water mixture and the noted that walruses in water have been into three phases (Alaska Regional mixture’s viscosity (resistance to flow). observed to generally show little Response Team 2002, p. G1). Phase One The latter change creates particular concern about potential disturbance is focused on eliminating the source of problems for conventional removal and from approaching vessels, unless the the spill, containing the spilled oil, and pumping cleanup methods (O’Rourke ship came in very close proximity to protecting environmentally sensitive 2010, p. 24). Moreover, two of the major them, in which case they dove or swam areas. Phase Two involves efforts to nonmechanical recovery methods—in-

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situ burning and dispersant factors, the availability of a reliable risk of an oil spill. Commercial fishing application—may be limited by the government or private icebreaking fleet is also currently not a threat to walrus, Arctic conditions and lack of logistical to clear the entire Route and provide as it occurs only on the periphery of the support such as aircraft, vessels, and predictable open shipping lanes (Arctic walrus’ range and results in minimal other infrastructure (O’Rourke 2010, Marine Transport Workshop 2004, p. 1; impacts on the population. We p. 24). Arctic Council 2009, p. 20). Although recognize the potential future interest by As stated earlier, vessel-related spills there are no current regulations on the fishing industry to initiate fisheries were, and will likely continue to be, icebreaking activities in the Arctic, further north as fish distribution small in scale with localized impact to voluntary guidelines addressing changes in association with predicted walrus and their habitat. A large-scale icebreaking activities could be included changes in ocean conditions. However, spill could have a major impact on the as part of unified, multilateral based on the limited fishing-related Pacific walrus population, depending regulation on Arctic shipping. impacts to walrus that have occurred in on the spill and location relative to According to the U.S. Department of other areas to date, and the active coastal aggregations. However, at Transportation, the International engagement of the NPFMC through the present the chance of a large oil spill Maritime Organization (IMO) is Arctic Fisheries Management Plan, we occurring in the Pacific walrus’ range in considering developing icebreaking conclude that commercial fishing is not the foreseeable future is considered low. guidelines. now, and is not likely to become, a Because most oil spills will have only Icebreaking is currently not a threat to threat to Pacific walrus in the localized impact to walrus, and the the Pacific walrus population, because foreseeable future. Shipping is not chance of a large-scale spill occurring in of the limited amount of icebreaking currently a threat to the Pacific walrus the walrus’ range in the foreseeable activity, current regulations associated population, because it occurs at low future is low, oil spills do not appear to with shipping in support of other levels, and shipping in support of other be a threat to Pacific walrus now or in activities (e.g., oil and gas activities (e.g., oil and gas exploration) the foreseeable future. development), and the relatively narrow is sufficiently regulated and mitigated corridors in which the activities occur. Icebreaking Activities by MMPA incidental take regulations. Shipping activity and associated Shipping may increase in the future, but Icebreaking activities can create noise icebreaking are predicted to increase in shipping lanes are typically limited to that causes marine mammals to avoid the future, but the magnitude and rate narrow corridors, and disturbance from areas where these activities are of increase are unknown and dependent such activities is expected to be low. occurring. Further, icebreaking activities on both economic and environmental Moreover, given the uncertainties may increase the risk of oil spills by factors. Given the uncertainties identified related to potential future increasing vessel traffic in ice-filled identified related to potential future waters. Given that marine mammals, shipping activities, we conclude that shipping activities, the available increased shipping activities are including walrus, have been found to information does not enable us to concentrate in and around temporary unlikely to cause population-level conclude that these activities will cause effects to the Pacific walrus in the breaks in the ice created by icebreakers, population-level effects to the Pacific there may be greater environmental foreseeable future. In addition, take walrus in the foreseeable future. provisions of the MMPA can be effective impact associated with an oil spill Both the Service and USGS BN in regulating shipping in U.S. waters involving an icebreaker or a vessel models included oil and gas that may disturb haulouts and interrupt operating in a channel cleared by an development, commercial fisheries, and foraging activity. Because most oil spills icebreaker. shipping as stressors (Garlich-Miller et will have only localized impact to Currently, Russian and Canadian al. 2011, Section 3.8.5 ‘‘Other Natural or icebreakers are used along the Northern Human Factors’’; Jay et al. 2010b, p. 37). walrus, and the chance of a large-scale Sea Route and within the Canadian The USGS model also included air spill occurring in the walrus’ range in Arctic Archipelago to clear passageways traffic and shipping activities the foreseeable future is considered low, utilized by commercial shipping vessels simultaneously (Jay et al. 2010b, p. 37). oil spills do not appear to be a threat to (Arctic Council 2009, p. 74), primarily In both models, these stressors had little Pacific walrus now or in the foreseeable in the summer months. The United influence on model outcomes (Garlich- future. Finally, shipping activity and States does not currently engage in Miller et al. 2011 Section 3.8.5 ‘‘Other associated icebreaking is predicted to icebreaking activities for navigational Natural or Human Factors’’; Jay et al. increase in the future, but the purposes in the Arctic (NRC 2005, p. 2010b, pp. 85–86, respectively). magnitude and rate of increase are 16). There are no current U.S. or State unknown and dependent on both of Alaska regulations on icebreaking Summary of Factor E economic and environmental factors. activities, mainly because icebreaking Based on our estimation of low Based on the best information available along the Alaskan Coast is minimal and current contaminant loads and the at this time, we are unable to conclude usually carried out by the Coast Guard. likelihood of minimal future exposure that these shipping activities will be a However, in the last few years, oil and as walruses feed on lower trophic levels, threat to the Pacific walrus in the gas exploration activities in the Beaufort we conclude that contaminants are not foreseeable future, in light of the and Chukchi Seas have used privately a threat now and are not likely to be a uncertainties in projecting the contracted icebreakers in support of threat to the Pacific walrus population magnitude and rate of increase of these their operations. in the foreseeable future. Oil and gas activities in the future. Icebreaking activities may increase in exploration, development, and Therefore, based on our review of the the future, given increases in production are currently not a threat to best commercial and scientific data commercial shipping and marine the Pacific walrus and are not expected available, we conclude that none of the transportation. In particular, the to be in the foreseeable future, due to potential stressors identified and establishment of the Northern Sea Route the anticipated increased scrutiny oil discussed under Factor E (‘‘Other as a viable alternative trade route and gas development will undergo in Natural or Manmade Factors Affecting connecting the Atlantic and Pacific the future, the continued application of Its Continued Existence of the Pacific Oceans is contingent on, among other incidental take regulations, and the low Walrus’’) is a threat to the Pacific walrus

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now, or is likely to become a threat in occurring faster than forecast and, on educational purposes. Under Factor B, the foreseeable future. average, sea ice has retreated off the we considered four potential risks to the continental shelf for approximately 1 Pacific walrus from overutilization Finding month per year during the last decade. relating to (1) Recreation, scientific, or As required by the Act, we considered At mid-century, model subsets project a educational purposes; (2) United States each of the five factors under section 2-month ice-free season in the Chukchi import/export; (3) commercial harvest; 4(a)(1)(A) in assessing whether the Sea, and a 4-month ice-free season at the and (4) subsistence harvest. We found Pacific walrus is endangered or end of the century, centered on the that recreational, scientific, and threatened throughout all or a month of September (Douglas 2010, p. educational utilization of walruses is significant portion of its range. We 8), with some models indicating there currently at low levels and is not carefully examined the best scientific will be 5 ice-free months. Based on the projected to be a threat in the and commercial information available current rate of sea-ice loss, and the foreseeable future. United States import/ regarding the past, present, and future current rate of GHG increases, these export is not considered to be a threat threats faced by the Pacific walrus. We changes may occur earlier in the century to Pacific walrus now or in the considered the information provided in than currently projected. foreseeable future, because most the petition submitted to the Service by Through our analysis, we have specimens imported into or exported the Center for Biological Diversity; concluded that loss of sea ice, with its from the United States are fossilized information available in our files; other concomitant changes to walrus bone and ivory shards, and any other available published and unpublished distribution and life-history patterns, walrus ivory can only be imported into information; information submitted to will lead to a population decline, and is or exported from the United States after the Service in response to our Federal a threat to Pacific walrus in the it has been legally harvested and Register notice of September 10, 2009; foreseeable future. We base this substantially altered to qualify as a and information submitted to the conclusion on the fact that, over time, Native handicraft. Commercial and Service in response to our public news walruses will be forced to rely on sport hunting of Pacific walrus in the release requesting information on terrestrial haulouts to an increasingly United States is prohibited under the September 10, 2010. We also consulted greater extent. Although coastal MMPA. Russian legislation also with recognized Pacific walrus experts haulouts have been traditionally used prohibits sport hunting of Pacific and other Federal, State, and Tribal more frequently by males than by walruses. Commercial hunting in Russia agencies. females with calves, in the future both has not occurred since 1991, and In our analysis of Factor A, we sexes and all ages will be restricted to resumption would require the issuance identified and evaluated the risks of coastal habitats for a much greater of a governmental decree. In addition, present or threatened destruction, period of time. This will expose all any future commercial harvest in Russia modification, or curtailment of habitat individuals, but especially calves, must be based on a sustainable quota; or range of the Pacific walrus from (1) juveniles, and females, to increased therefore, it is unlikely that any loss of sea ice due to climate change and levels of stress from depletion of prey, potential future Russian commercial (2) effects on prey species due to ocean increased energetic costs to obtain prey, harvest will become a threat to the warming and ocean acidification. We trampling injuries and mortalities, and Pacific walrus population. examined the likely responses and predation. Although some of these With regard to the subsistence harvest effects of changing sea-ice conditions in stressors are currently acting on the of walrus, subsistence harvest in the Bering and Chukchi Seas on Pacific population, we anticipate that their Chukotka, Russia, is controlled through walruses. Pacific walrus is an ice- magnitude will increase over time as a quota system. An annual subsistence dependent species. Individuals use ice sea-ice loss over the continental shelf quota is issued through a decree by the for many aspects of their life history occurs regularly and more extensively. Russian Federal Fisheries Agency. throughout the year, and because of the Given this persistent and increasing Quota recommendations are based on projected loss of sea ice over the 21st threat of sea-ice loss, we conclude that what is thought to be a sustainable century, we have identified the loss of this anticipated Pacific walrus removal level (approximately 4 percent sea ice and associated effects to be a population decline will continue into of the population), based on the total threat to the Pacific walrus population. the foreseeable future. population and productivity estimates. Although we anticipate that sufficient Under Factor A, we also analyzed the However, there are no U.S. quotas on ice will remain, so that breeding effects of ocean warming and ocean subsistence harvest. Although at present behavior and calving will still occur in acidification on Pacific walrus. it is difficult to quantify sustainable association with sea ice, the locations of Although we are concerned about the removal levels because of the lack of these activities will likely change in changes to the walrus prey base that information on Pacific walrus response to changing ice patterns. The may occur from ocean acidification and population status and trends, we greatest change in sea ice, walrus warming, and theoretically we determined that 4 percent is a distribution, and behavioral responses is understand how those stressors might conservative sustainable harvest level. expected to occur in the summer (June– operate, ocean dynamics are very The current level of subsistence harvest August) and fall (October and complex and the specific outcomes for rangewide is about 4 percent of the 2006 November), when sea-ice loss is these stressors are too unreliable at this population estimate. Therefore, we do projected to be the greatest. time for us to conclude that they are a not consider the current level of Based on the best scientific threat to Pacific walrus now or in the subsistence harvest to be a threat to information available, in the foreseeable foreseeable future. We therefore Pacific walrus at the present time. future, we anticipate that there will be conclude that these stressors do not rise Pacific walrus are an important a 1–5-month period in which sea ice to the level of a threat, now or in the subsistence resource in the Bering Strait will typically retreat northward off of foreseeable future. region, and we expect Pacific walrus to the Chukchi continental shelf. The In our analysis of Factor B, we continue to remain available for harvest Chukchi Sea is projected to be ice-free identified and evaluated the risks to there, even as sea-ice conditions change. in September every year by mid- Pacific walrus from overutilization for Because there are no U.S. subsistence century. However, loss of sea ice is commercial, recreational, scientific, or harvest quotas, we do not expect harvest

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levels in the Bering Strait region to walrus population, and there is no pollution and contaminants; oil and gas change appreciably in the foreseeable evidence of increased presence of killer exploration, development, and future, unless regulations are put in whales in the Bering or Chukchi Seas; production; commercial fisheries place to restrict harvest by limiting the therefore, killer whale predation is not interactions; shipping; oil spills; and number of walrus that may be taken. a threat to the Pacific walrus now, and icebreaking activities. Based on our There are two paths that could result in it is unlikely to become a threat in the estimation of low current contaminant harvest quotas: (1) Self-regulation foreseeable future. loads and the likelihood of minimal activities by Alaska Natives; and (2) In our analysis under Factor D, we future exposure as walruses feed on implementation of procedures in the identified and evaluated the risks from lower trophic levels, we conclude that MMPA. Neither of these is currently in the inadequacy of existing regulatory contaminants are not a threat now and place, except for one quota on Round mechanisms by focusing our analysis on are not likely to be a threat to the Pacific Island, as discussed below. Instead, we the specific laws and regulations aimed walrus population in the foreseeable predict that subsistence harvest is likely at addressing the two primary threats to future. Oil and gas development is to continue at similar levels to those the walrus—the loss of sea-ice habitat currently not a threat to the Pacific currently, even as the walrus population and subsistence harvest. As discussed walrus and is not expected to be in the declines in response to loss of summer previously under Factor A, GHG foreseeable future due to the anticipated sea ice. Over time, as the proportion of emissions have contributed to a increased scrutiny oil and gas animals harvested increases relative to warming climate and the loss of sea-ice development will undergo in the future, the overall population, this continued habitat for the Pacific walrus. There are the continued application of incidental level of subsistence harvest likely will currently no regulatory mechanisms in take regulations, and the low risk of an place to reduce or limit GHG emissions. become unsustainable. Therefore, we oil spill. Commercial fishing is also This situation was considered as part of determine that subsistence harvest is a currently not a threat to walrus as it our analysis in Factor A. Accordingly, threat to the walrus population in the occurs only on the periphery of the there are no existing regulatory foreseeable future. species’ range and results in minimal In our analysis of Factor C, we mechanisms to effectively address sea- impacts on the population. We identified and evaluated the risks to ice loss. recognize the potential future interest by Pacific walrus from disease and With regard to the other main threat the fishing industry to initiate fisheries predation, and we determined that to the walrus, subsistence harvest, there further north as fish distribution neither component currently, or in the is currently no limit on the number of foreseeable future, represents threats to walrus that may be taken for subsistence changes in association with predicted the Pacific walrus population. Although purposes rangewide. While the changes in ocean conditions. However, a changing climate may increase subsistence harvest in Russia is based on the limited fishing-related exposure of walrus to new pathogens, controlled through a quota system, no impacts to walrus that have occurred in there are no clear transmission vectors national or Statewide quota exists in the other areas to date, and the active that would change levels of exposure, United States. One local quota restricts engagement of the NPFMC through the and no evidence exists that disease will the number of walrus that may be taken Arctic Fisheries Management Plan, we become a threat in foreseeable future. on Round Island (Alaska), but the conclude that commercial fishing is not As the use of coastal haulouts by both harvest level in this area represents only now a threat to Pacific walrus, and is walruses and polar bears during a very minor portion of the harvest not likely to become a threat in the summer increases, we expect rangewide. Local ordinances recently foreseeable future. Shipping is not interactions between the two species to adopted by two Native communities in currently a threat to the Pacific walrus also increase, and terrestrial walrus the Bering Strait region, where 84 population, because it occurs at low haulouts may become important feeding percent of the harvest in the United levels, and shipping in support of other areas for polar bears. The presence of States and 43 percent of the rangewide activities (e.g., oil and gas exploration) polar bears along the coast during the harvest occurs, contain provisions is sufficiently regulated and mitigated ice-free season will likely influence aimed at restricting the number of by MMPA incidental take regulations. patterns of haulout use as walrus shift hunting trips that may be taken for Shipping may increase in the future, but to other coastal haulout locations. These subsistence purposes. While these given the uncertainties identified movements may result in increased ordinances provide an important related to potential future shipping energetic costs to walrus, but it is not framework for future co-management activities, the available information does possible to predict the magnitude of initiatives and the potential not allow us to conclude that these these costs. Although predation by polar development of future localized harvest activities will cause population-level bears on Pacific walrus has been limits, we acknowledge that no limits effects to the Pacific walrus in the observed, the lack of documented currently exist on the total number of foreseeable future. In addition, take population-level effects leads us to walrus that may be taken in the Bering provisions of the MMPA can be effective conclude that polar bear predation is Strait region or rangewide. Nor are there in regulating shipping in U.S. waters not currently a threat to the Pacific other restrictions in place to ensure the that may disturb haulouts and interrupt walrus. As sea ice declines and Pacific likelihood that, as the population of foraging activity. Because most oil spills walrus spend more time on coastal walrus declines in response to changing will have only localized impact to haulouts, however, it is likely that polar sea-ice conditions, the subsistence walrus, and the chance of a large-scale bear predation will increase. However, harvest of walrus will occur at a spill occurring in the walrus’ range in we cannot reliably predict the level of reduced level. As a result, we determine the foreseeable future is considered low, predation in the future, and therefore that the existing regulatory mechanisms oil spills do not appear to be a threat to we are not able to conclude with are inadequate to address the threat of Pacific walrus now or in the foreseeable sufficient reliability that it will rise to subsistence harvest to the Pacific walrus future. Finally, shipping activity and the level of a threat to the Pacific walrus in the foreseeable future. associated icebreaking are predicted to population in the foreseeable future. In our analysis under Factor E, we increase in the future, but the There is no evidence that killer whale evaluated other factors that may have an magnitude and rate of increase are predation has ever limited the Pacific effect on the Pacific walrus, including unknown and dependent on both

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economic and environmental factors. Listing Priority Number population-level effects. Because the Given the uncertainties identified The Service adopted guidelines on threat of the loss of sea-ice habitat is not related to potential future shipping September 21, 1983 (48 FR 43098), to having significant effects currently, but activities, the available information does establish a rational system for utilizing is projected to, we have determined the not enable us to conclude that available resources for the highest magnitude of this threat is moderate, icebreaking will cause population-level priority species when adding species to and not high. effects to the Pacific walrus in the the Lists of Endangered and Threatened Subsistence harvest is also identified foreseeable future. Therefore, we Wildlife and Plants or reclassifying as a threat to the Pacific walrus. Harvest determine that none of the potential species listed as threatened to is currently occurring at sustainable stressors identified and discussed under endangered status. These guidelines, levels. With the loss of sea-ice habitat Factor E is a threat to the Pacific walrus titled ‘‘Endangered and Threatened and the projected associated population now, or is likely to become a threat in Species Listing and Recovery Priority decline, and because subsistence the foreseeable future. Guidelines,’’ address the immediacy and harvest is expected to continue at In summary, we identify loss of sea magnitude of threats, and the level of current levels, we concluded that ice in the summer and fall and taxonomic distinctiveness. The system subsistence harvest would have a associated impacts (Factor A) and places greatest importance on the population-level effect on the species in subsistence harvest (Factor B) as the immediacy and magnitude of threats, the future. Because harvest is occurring primary threats to the Pacific walrus in but also factors in the level of taxonomic at sustainable levels now, but may the foreseeable future. These distinctiveness by assigning priority in become unsustainable in the foreseeable conclusions are supported by the descending order to monotypic genera future due to the projected population Bayesian Network models prepared by (genus with one species), full species, decline, we have determined the USGS and the Service. Our Factor D and subspecies (or equivalently, distinct magnitude of the threat of subsistence analysis determined that existing population segments of vertebrates). harvest is considered to be moderate, regulatory mechanisms are currently As a result of our analysis of the best and not high. inadequate to address these threats. available scientific and commercial Under our Guidelines, the second These threats are of sufficient information, we assigned the Pacific criterion we consider in assigning a imminence, intensity, and magnitude to walrus a Listing Priority Number (LPN) listing priority is the immediacy of cause substantial losses of abundance of 9, based on the moderate magnitude threats. This criterion is intended to and an anticipated population decline and imminence of threats. These threats ensure that species that face actual, of Pacific walrus that will continue into include the present or threatened identifiable threats are given priority the foreseeable future. destruction, modification or curtailment over those species for which threats are Therefore, on the basis of the best of Pacific walrus habitat due to loss of only potential or species that are scientific and commercial information sea-ice habitat; and overutilization due intrinsically vulnerable but are not available, we find that the petitioned to subsistence harvest. In addition, known to be presently facing such action to list the Pacific walrus is existing regulatory mechanisms fail to threats. We have determined that loss of warranted. We will make a address these threats. These threats sea-ice habitat is affecting the Pacific determination on the status of the affect the entire population, are ongoing, walrus population currently and is species as threatened or endangered and will continue to occur into the expected to continue and likely when we prepare a proposed listing foreseeable future. Our rationale for intensify in the foreseeable future. determination. However, as explained assigning the Pacific walrus an LPN of Similarly, we have determined that in more detail below, an immediate 9 is outlined below. subsistence harvest is presently proposal of a regulation implementing Under the Service’s Guidelines, the occurring and expected to continue at this action is precluded by higher magnitude of threat is the first criterion current levels into the foreseeable priority listing actions, and expeditious we look at when establishing a listing future, even as the Pacific walrus progress is being made to add or remove priority. The guidelines indicate that population declines due to sea-ice loss. qualified species from the Lists of species with the highest magnitude of Because both the loss of sea-ice habitat Endangered and Threatened Wildlife threat are those species facing the most and subsistence harvest are presently and Plants. severe threats to their continued occurring, we consider the threats to be We reviewed the available existence. These species receive the imminent. information to determine if the existing highest listing priority. As discussed in The third criterion in our guidelines and foreseeable threats render the the finding, the Pacific walrus is being is intended to devote resources to those species at risk of extinction at this time impacted by two primary threats; the species representing highly distinctive such that issuing an emergency loss of sea-ice habitat, and subsistence or isolated gene pools as reflected by regulation temporarily listing the harvest. The main threat to the Pacific taxonomy, with the highest priority species under section 4(b)(7) of the Act walrus is the loss of sea-ice habitat due given to monotypic genera, followed by is warranted. We determined that to climate change. Sea-ice losses have species and then subspecies. The Pacific issuing an emergency regulation been observed to date and are projected walrus is a valid subspecies and temporarily listing the species is not to continue through the end of the 21st therefore receives a lower priority than warranted for this species at this time, century. The loss of sea-ice habitat, species or a monotypic genus. As because the threats acting on the species while affecting individual walrus or discussed, the threats affecting the are not immediately impacting the localized populations, does not appear Pacific walrus are of moderate entire species across its range to the to be currently resulting in significant magnitude and imminent. Accordingly point where the species will be population-level effects. However, the we have assigned the Pacific walrus an immediately lost. However, if at any modeled projections of the loss of sea- LPN of 9, pursuant to our guidelines. time we determine that issuing an ice habitat and the associated impacts We will continue to monitor the emergency regulation temporarily on the Pacific walrus are expected to threats to the Pacific walrus, as well as listing the Pacific walrus is warranted, greatly increase within the foreseeable the species’ status, on an annual basis, we will initiate this action at that time. future, thereby resulting in significant and should the magnitude or the

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imminence of the threats change, we addition, in FY 1998 and for each fiscal Congress identified the availability of will revisit our assessment of the LPN. year since then, Congress has placed a resources as the only basis for deferring statutory cap on funds which may be the initiation of a rulemaking that is Preclusion and Expeditious Progress expended for the Listing Program, equal warranted. The Conference Report Preclusion is a function of the listing to the amount expressly appropriated accompanying Pub. L. 97–304 priority of a species in relation to the for that purpose in that fiscal year. This (Endangered Species Act Amendments resources that are available and the cost cap was designed to prevent funds of 1982), which established the current and relative priority of competing appropriated for other functions under statutory deadlines and the warranted- demands for those resources. Thus, in the Act (for example, recovery funds for but-precluded finding, states that the any given fiscal year (FY), multiple removing species from the Lists), or for amendments were ‘‘not intended to factors dictate whether it will be other Service programs, from being used allow the Secretary to delay possible to undertake work on a listing for Listing Program actions (see House commencing the rulemaking process for proposal regulation or whether Report 105–163, 105th Congress, 1st any reason other than that the existence promulgation of such a proposal is Session, July 1, 1997). of pending or imminent proposals to list precluded by higher-priority listing Since FY 2002, the Service’s budget species subject to a greater degree of actions. has included a critical habitat subcap to threat would make allocation of The resources available for listing ensure that some funds are available for resources to such a petition [that is, for actions are determined through the other work in the Listing Program (‘‘The a lower-ranking species] unwise.’’ annual Congressional appropriations critical habitat designation subcap will Although that statement appeared to process. The appropriation for the ensure that some funding is available to refer specifically to the ‘‘to the Listing Program is available to support address other listing activities’’ (House maximum extent practicable’’ limitation work involving the following listing on the 90-day deadline for making a actions: Proposed and final listing rules; Report No. 107–103, 107th Congress, 1st ‘‘substantial information’’ finding, that 90-day and 12-month findings on Session, June 19, 2001)). From FY 2002 finding is made at the point when the petitions to add species to the Lists of to FY 2006, the Service has had to use Service is deciding whether or not to Endangered and Threatened Wildlife virtually the entire critical habitat commence a status review that will and Plants (Lists) or to change the status subcap to address court-mandated determine the degree of threats facing of a species from threatened to designations of critical habitat, and the species, and therefore the analysis endangered; annual ‘‘resubmitted’’ consequently none of the critical habitat underlying the statement is more petition findings on prior warranted- subcap funds have been available for relevant to the use of the warranted-but- but-precluded petition findings as other listing activities. In some FYs precluded finding, which is made when required under section 4(b)(3)(C)(i) of since 2006, we have been able to use the Act; critical habitat petition some of the critical habitat subcap funds the Service has already determined the findings; proposed and final rules for proposed listing determinations for degree of threats facing the species and designating critical habitat; and high-priority candidate species. In other is deciding whether or not to commence litigation-related, administrative, and FYs, while we were unable to use any a rulemaking. program-management functions of the critical habitat subcap funds to In FY 2011, on December 22, 2010, (including preparing and allocating fund proposed listing determinations, Congress passed a continuing resolution budgets, responding to Congressional we did use some of this money to fund which provides funding at the FY 2010 and public inquiries, and conducting the critical habitat portion of some enacted level through March 4, 2011. public outreach regarding listing and proposed listing determinations so that Until Congress appropriates funds for critical habitat). The work involved in the proposed listing determination and FY 2011 at a different level, we will preparing various listing documents can proposed critical habitat designation fund listing work based on the FY 2010 be extensive and may include, but is not could be combined into one rule, amount. Thus, at this time in FY 2011, limited to: Gathering and assessing the thereby being more efficient in our the Service anticipates an appropriation best scientific and commercial data work. At this time, for FY 2011, we do of $22,103,000 based on FY 2010 available and conducting analyses used not know if we will be able to use some appropriations. Of that, the Service as the basis for our decisions; writing of the critical habitat subcap funds to anticipates needing to dedicate and publishing documents; and fund proposed listing determinations. $11,632,000 for determinations of obtaining, reviewing, and evaluating We make our determinations of critical habitat for already listed species. public comments and peer review preclusion on a nationwide basis to Also $500,000 is appropriated for comments on proposed rules and ensure that the species most in need of foreign species listings under the Act. incorporating relevant information into listing will be addressed first and also The Service thus has $9,971,000 final rules. The number of listing because we allocate our listing budget available to fund work in the following actions that we can undertake in a given on a nationwide basis. Through the categories: compliance with court orders year also is influenced by the listing cap, the critical habitat subcap, and court-approved settlement complexity of those listing actions; that and the amount of funds needed to agreements requiring that petition is, more complex actions generally are address court-mandated critical habitat findings or listing determinations be more costly. The median cost for designations, Congress and the courts completed by a specific date; section 4 preparing and publishing a 90-day have, in effect, determined the amount (of the Act) listing actions with absolute finding is $39,276; for a 12-month of money available for other listing statutory deadlines; essential litigation- finding, $100,690; for a proposed rule activities nationwide (i.e., actions other related, administrative, and listing with critical habitat, $345,000; and for than critical habitat designation). program-management functions; and a final listing rule with critical habitat, Therefore, the funds in the listing cap, high-priority listing actions for some of the median cost is $305,000. other than those needed to address our candidate species. In FY 2010 the We cannot spend more than is court-mandated critical habitat for Service received many new petitions appropriated for the Listing Program already listed species, set the limits on and a single petition to list 404 species. without violating the Anti-Deficiency our determinations of preclusion and The receipt of petitions for a large Act (see 31 U.S.C. 1341(a)(1)(A)). In expeditious progress. number of species is consuming the

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Service’s listing funding that is not threats (high or moderate to low), species to endangered if we can dedicated to meeting Court-ordered immediacy of threats (imminent or combine this with work that is subject commitments. Absent some ability to nonimminent), and taxonomic status of to a court-determined deadline. balance effort among listing duties the species (in order of priority: With our workload so much bigger under existing funding levels, it is monotypic genus (a species that is the than the amount of funds we have to unlikely that the Service will be able to sole member of a genus); species, or part accomplish it, it is important that we be make expeditious progress on candidate of a species (subspecies, distinct as efficient as possible in our listing species in FY 2011. population segment, or significant process. Therefore, as we work on In 2009, the responsibility for listing portion of the range)). The lower the proposed rules for the highest priority foreign species under the Act was listing priority number, the higher the species in the next several years, we are transferred from the Division of listing priority (that is, a species with an preparing multi-species proposals when Scientific Authority, International LPN of 1 would have the highest listing appropriate, and these may include Affairs Program, to the Endangered priority). species with lower priority if they Species Program. Therefore, starting in Because of the large number of high- overlap geographically or have the same FY 2010, we used a portion of our priority species, we have further ranked threats as a species with an LPN of 2. funding to work on the actions the candidate species with an LPN of 2 In addition, we take into consideration described above for listing actions by using the following extinction-risk the availability of staff resources when related to foreign species. In FY 2011, type criteria: International Union for the we determine which high-priority we anticipate using $1,500,000 for work Conservation of Nature and Natural species will receive funding to on listing actions for foreign species Resources (IUCN) Red list status/rank, minimize the amount of time and which reduces funding available for Heritage rank (provided by resources required to complete each domestic listing actions, however, NatureServe), Heritage threat rank listing action. currently only $500,000 has been (provided by NatureServe), and species As explained above, a determination allocated. Although there are currently currently with fewer than 50 that listing is warranted but precluded no foreign species issues included in individuals, or 4 or fewer populations. must also demonstrate that expeditious our high-priority listing actions at this Those species with the highest IUCN progress is being made to add and time, many actions have statutory or rank (critically endangered), the highest remove qualified species to and from court-approved settlement deadlines, Heritage rank (G1), the highest Heritage the Lists of Endangered and Threatened thus increasing their priority. The threat rank (substantial, imminent Wildlife and Plants. As with our budget allocations for each specific threats), and currently with fewer than ‘‘precluded’’ finding, the evaluation of listing action are identified in the 50 individuals, or fewer than 4 whether progress in adding qualified Service’s FY 2011 Allocation Table (part populations, originally comprised a species to the Lists has been expeditious of our record). group of approximately 40 candidate is a function of the resources available For the above reasons, funding a species (‘‘Top 40’’). These 40 candidate for listing and the competing demands proposed listing determination for the species have had the highest priority to for those funds. (Although we do not Pacific walrus is precluded by court- receive funding to work on a proposed discuss it in detail here, we are also ordered and court-approved settlement listing determination. As we work on making expeditious progress in agreements, listing actions with absolute proposed and final listing rules for those removing species from the list under the statutory deadlines, and work on 40 candidates, we apply the ranking Recovery program in light of the proposed listing determinations for criteria to the next group of candidates resource available for delisting, which is those candidate species with a higher with an LPN of 2 and 3 to determine the funded by a separate line item in the listing priority (i.e., candidate species next set of highest-priority candidate budget of the Endangered Species with LPNs of 1–8). species. Finally, proposed rules for Program. So far during FY 2011, we Based on our September 21, 1983, reclassification of threatened species to have completed one delisting rule.) guidance for assigning an LPN for each endangered are lower priority, since as Given the limited resources available for candidate species (48 FR 43098), we listed species, they are already afforded listing, we find that we are making have a significant number of species the protection of the Act and expeditious progress in FY 2011 in the with an LPN of 2. Using this guidance, implementing regulations. However, for Listing program. This progress included we assign each candidate an LPN of 1 efficiency reasons, we may choose to preparing and publishing the following to 12, depending on the magnitude of work on a proposed rule to reclassify a determinations:

FY 2011 COMPLETED LISTING ACTIONS

Publication date Title Actions FR pages

10/6/2010 ...... Endangered Status for the Altamaha Spinymussel and Proposed Listing Endangered ...... 75 FR 61664–61690 Designation of Critical Habitat. 10/7/2010 ...... 12-month Finding on a Petition to list the Sacramento Notice of 12-month petition finding, 75 FR 62070–62095 Splittail as Endangered or Threatened. Not warranted. 10/28/2010 ...... Endangered Status and Designation of Critical Habitat Proposed Listing Endangered 75 FR 66481–66552 for Spikedace and Loach Minnow. (uplisting). 11/2/2010 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition to List the Bay Springs Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 75 FR 67341–67343 Salamander as Endangered. Not substantial. 11/2/2010 ...... Determination of Endangered Status for the Georgia Final Listing Endangered ...... 75 FR 67511–67550 Pigtoe Mussel, Interrupted Rocksnail, and Rough Hornsnail and Designation of Critical Habitat. 11/2/2010 ...... Listing the Rayed Bean and Snuffbox as Endangered ... Proposed Listing Endangered ...... 75 FR 67551–67583 11/4/2010 ...... 12–Month Finding on a Petition to List Cirsium wrightii Notice of 12-month petition finding, 75 FR 67925–67944 (Wright’s Marsh Thistle) as Endangered or Threat- Warranted but precluded. ened.

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FY 2011 COMPLETED LISTING ACTIONS—Continued

Publication date Title Actions FR pages

12/14/2010 ...... Endangered Status for Dunes Sagebrush Lizard ...... Proposed Listing Endangered ...... 75 FR 77801–77817 12/14/2010 ...... 12-month Finding on a Petition to List the North Amer- Notice of 12-month petition finding, 75 FR 78029–78061 ican Wolverine as Endangered or Threatened. Warranted but precluded. 12/14/2010 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition to List the Sonoran Pop- Notice of 12-month petition finding, 75 FR 78093–78146 ulation of the Desert Tortoise as Endangered or Warranted but precluded. Threatened. 12/15/2010 ...... 12-Month Finding on a Petition to List Astragalus Notice of 12-month petition finding, 75 FR 78513–78556 microcymbus and Astragalus schmolliae as Endan- Warranted but precluded. gered or Threatened. 12/28/2010 ...... Listing Seven Brazilian Bird Species as Endangered Final Listing Endangered ...... 75 FR 81793–81815 Throughout Their Range. 1/4/2011 ...... 90-Day Finding on a Petition to List the Red Knot sub- Notice of 90-day Petition Finding, 76 FR 304–311 species Calidris canutus roselaari as Endangered. Not substantial. 1/19/2011 ...... Endangered Status for the Sheepnose and Proposed Listing Endangered ...... 76 FR 3392–3420 Spectaclecase Mussels.

Our expeditious progress also statutory timelines, that is, timelines a lower priority if they overlap includes work on listing actions that we required under the Act. Actions in the geographically or have the same threats funded in FY 2010 and FY 2011, but bottom section of the table are high- as the species with the high priority. have not yet been completed to date. priority listing actions. These actions Including these species together in the These actions are listed below. Actions include work primarily on species with same proposed rule results in in the top section of the table are being an LPN of 2, and, as discussed above, considerable savings in time and conducted under a deadline set by a selection of these species is partially funding compared to preparing separate court. Actions in the middle section of based on available staff resources, and proposed rules for each of them in the the table are being conducted to meet when appropriate, include species with future.

ACTIONS FUNDED IN FY 2010 AND FY 2011 BUT NOT YET COMPLETED

Species Action

Actions Subject to Court Order/Settlement Agreement

Flat-tailed horned lizard ...... Final listing determination. Mountain plover4 ...... Final listing determination. Solanum conocarpum ...... 12-month petition finding. Thorne’s Hairstreak butterfly3 ...... 12-month petition finding. Hermes copper butterfly3 ...... 12-month petition finding. 4 parrot species (military macaw, yellow-billed parrot, red-crowned parrot, scarlet macaw)5 ...... 12-month petition finding. 4 parrot species (blue-headed macaw, great green macaw, grey-cheeked parakeet, hyacinth macaw)5 ...... 12-month petition finding. 4 parrot species (crimson shining parrot, white cockatoo, Philippine cockatoo, yellow-crested cockatoo)5 .... 12-month petition finding. Utah prairie dog (uplisting) ...... 90-day petition finding.

Actions With Statutory Deadlines

Casey’s june beetle ...... Final listing determination. Southern rockhopper penguin—Campbell Plateau population ...... Final listing determination. 6 Birds from Eurasia ...... Final listing determination. 5 Bird species from Colombia and Ecuador ...... Final listing determination. Queen Charlotte goshawk ...... Final listing determination. 5 species southeast fish (Cumberland darter, rush darter, yellowcheek darter, chucky madtom, and laurel Final listing determination. dace)4. Ozark hellbender4 ...... Final listing determination. Altamaha spinymussel3 ...... Final listing determination. 3 Colorado plants (Ipomopsis polyantha (Pagosa Skyrocket), Penstemon debilis (Parachute Beardtongue), Final listing determination. and Phacelia submutica (DeBeque Phacelia))4. Salmon crested cockatoo ...... Final listing determination. 6 Birds from Peru & Bolivia ...... Final listing determination. Loggerhead sea turtle (assist National Marine Fisheries Service)5 ...... Final listing determination. 2 mussels (rayed bean (LPN = 2), snuffbox No LPN)5 ...... Final listing determination. Mt Charleston blue5 ...... Proposed listing determination. CA golden trout4 ...... 12-month petition finding. Black-footed albatross ...... 12-month petition finding. Mount Charleston blue butterfly ...... 12-month petition finding. Mojave fringe-toed lizard1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Kokanee—Lake Sammamish population1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Cactus ferruginous pygmy-owl1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Northern leopard frog ...... 12-month petition finding. Tehachapi slender salamander ...... 12-month petition finding.

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ACTIONS FUNDED IN FY 2010 AND FY 2011 BUT NOT YET COMPLETED—Continued

Species Action

Coqui Llanero ...... 12-month petition finding/Proposed listing. Dusky tree vole ...... 12-month petition finding. 3 MT invertebrates (mist forestfly (Lednia tumana), Oreohelix sp. 3, Oreohelix sp. 31) from 206 species pe- 12-month petition finding. tition. 5 UT plants (Astragalus hamiltonii, Eriogonum soredium, Lepidium ostleri, Penstemon flowersii, Trifolium 12-month petition finding. friscanum) from 206 species petition. 5 WY plants (Abronia ammophila, Agrostis rossiae, Astragalus proimanthus, Boechere (Arabis) pusilla, 12-month petition finding. Penstemon gibbensii) from 206 species petition. Leatherside chub (from 206 species petition) ...... 12-month petition finding. Frigid ambersnail (from 206 species petition)3 ...... 12-month petition finding. Platte River caddisfly (from 206 species petition)5 ...... 12-month petition finding. Gopher tortoise—eastern population ...... 12-month petition finding. Grand Canyon scorpion (from 475 species petition) ...... 12-month petition finding. Anacroneuria wipukupa (a stonefly from 475 species petition)4 ...... 12-month petition finding. Rattlesnake-master borer moth (from 475 species petition)3 ...... 12-month petition finding. 3 Texas moths (Ursia furtiva, Sphingicampa blanchardi, Agapema galbina) (from 475 species petition) ...... 12-month petition finding. 2 Texas shiners (Cyprinella sp., Cyprinella lepida) (from 475 species petition) ...... 12-month petition finding. 3 South Arizona plants (Erigeron piscaticus, Astragalus hypoxylus, Amoreuxia gonzalezii) (from 475 spe- 12-month petition finding. cies petition). 5 Central Texas mussel species (3 from 475 species petition) ...... 12-month petition finding. 14 parrots (foreign species) ...... 12-month petition finding. Berry Cave salamander1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Striped Newt1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Fisher—Northern Rocky Mountain Range1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Mohave Ground Squirrel1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Puerto Rico Harlequin Butterfly3 ...... 12-month petition finding. Western gull-billed tern ...... 12-month petition finding. Ozark chinquapin (Castanea pumila var. ozarkensis)4 ...... 12-month petition finding. HI yellow-faced bees ...... 12-month petition finding. Giant Palouse earthworm ...... 12-month petition finding. Whitebark pine ...... 12-month petition finding. OK grass pink (Calopogon oklahomensis)1 ...... 12-month petition finding. Ashy storm-petrel5 ...... 12-month petition finding. Honduran emerald ...... 12-month petition finding. Southeastern pop snowy plover & wintering pop. of piping plover1 ...... 90-day petition finding. Eagle Lake trout1 ...... 90-day petition finding. Smooth-billed ani1 ...... 90-day petition finding. 32 Pacific Northwest mollusks species (snails and slugs)1 ...... 90-day petition finding. 42 snail species (Nevada & Utah) ...... 90-day petition finding. Peary caribou ...... 90-day petition finding. Plains bison ...... 90-day petition finding. Spring Mountains checkerspot butterfly ...... 90-day petition finding. Spring pygmy sunfish ...... 90-day petition finding. Bay skipper ...... 90-day petition finding. Unsilvered fritillary ...... 90-day petition finding. Texas kangaroo rat ...... 90-day petition finding. Spot-tailed earless lizard ...... 90-day petition finding. Eastern small-footed bat ...... 90-day petition finding. Northern long-eared bat ...... 90-day petition finding. Prairie chub ...... 90-day petition finding. 10 species of Great Basin butterfly ...... 90-day petition finding. 6 sand dune (scarab) beetles ...... 90-day petition finding. Golden-winged warbler4 ...... 90-day petition finding. Sand-verbena moth ...... 90-day petition finding. 404 Southeast species ...... 90-day petition finding. Franklin’s bumble bee4 ...... 90-day petition finding. 2 Idaho snowflies (straight snowfly & Idaho snowfly)4 ...... 90-day petition finding. American eel4 ...... 90-day petition finding. Gila monster (Utah population)4 ...... 90-day petition finding. Arapahoe snowfly4 ...... 90-day petition finding. Leona’s little blue4 ...... 90-day petition finding. Aztec gilia5 ...... 90-day petition finding. White-tailed ptarmigan5 ...... 90-day petition finding. San Bernardino flying squirrel5 ...... 90-day petition finding. Bicknell’s thrush5 ...... 90-day petition finding. Chimpanzee ...... 90-day petition finding. Sonoran talussnail5 ...... 90-day petition finding. 2 AZ Sky Island plants (Graptopetalum bartrami & Pectis imberbis)5 ...... 90-day petition finding. I’iwi5 ...... 90-day petition finding.

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ACTIONS FUNDED IN FY 2010 AND FY 2011 BUT NOT YET COMPLETED—Continued

Species Action

High-Priority Listing Actions

19 Oahu candidate species2 (16 plants, 3 damselflies) (15 with LPN = 2, 3 with LPN = 3, 1 with LPN = 9) Proposed listing. 19 Maui-Nui candidate species2 (16 plants, 3 tree snails) (14 with LPN = 2, 2 with LPN = 3, 3 with LPN = Proposed listing. 8). 2 Arizona springsnails2 (Pyrgulopsis bernadina (LPN = 2), Pyrgulopsis trivialis (LPN = 2)) ...... Proposed listing. Chupadera springsnail2 (Pyrgulopsis chupaderae (LPN = 2) ...... Proposed listing. 8 Gulf Coast mussels (southern kidneyshell (LPN = 2), round ebonyshell (LPN = 2), Alabama pearlshell Proposed listing. (LPN = 2), southern sandshell (LPN = 5), fuzzy pigtoe (LPN = 5), Choctaw bean (LPN = 5), narrow pigtoe (LPN = 5), and tapered pigtoe (LPN = 11))4. Umtanum buckwheat (LPN = 2) and white bluffs bladderpod (LPN = 9)4 ...... Proposed listing. Grotto sculpin (LPN = 2)4 ...... Proposed listing. 2 Arkansas mussels (Neosho mucket (LPN = 2) & Rabbitsfoot (LPN = 9))4 ...... Proposed listing. Diamond darter (LPN = 2)4 ...... Proposed listing. Gunnison sage-grouse (LPN = 2)4 ...... Proposed listing. Miami blue (LPN = 3)3 ...... Proposed listing. 4 Texas salamanders (Austin blind salamander (LPN = 2), Salado salamander (LPN = 2), Georgetown sal- Proposed listing. amander (LPN = 8), Jollyville Plateau (LPN = 8))3. 5 SW aquatics (Gonzales Spring Snail (LPN = 2), Diamond Y springsnail (LPN = 2), Phantom springsnail Proposed listing. (LPN = 2), Phantom Cave snail (LPN = 2), Diminutive amphipod (LPN = 2))3. 2 Texas plants (Texas golden gladecress (Leavenworthia texana) (LPN = 2), Neches River rose-mallow Proposed listing. (Hibiscus dasycalyx) (LPN = 2))3. FL bonneted bat (LPN = 2)3 ...... Proposed listing. 21 Big Island (HI) species5 (includes 8 candidate species—5 plants & 3 animals; 4 with LPN = 2, 1 with Proposed listing. LPN = 3, 1 with LPN = 4, 2 with LPN = 8). 12 Puget Sound prairie species (9 subspecies of pocket gopher (Thomomys mazama ssp.) (LPN = 3), Proposed listing. streaked horned lark (LPN = 3), Taylor’s checkerspot (LPN = 3), Mardon skipper (LPN = 8))3. 2 TN River mussels (fluted kidneyshell (LPN = 2), slabside pearlymussel (LPN = 2))5 ...... Proposed listing. Jemez Mountain salamander (LPN = 2) 5 ...... Proposed listing. 1 Funds for listing actions for these species were provided in previous FYs. 2 Although funds for these high-priority listing actions were provided in FY 2008 or 2009, due to the complexity of these actions and competing priorities, these actions are still being developed. 3 Partially funded with FY 2010 funds and FY 2011 funds. 4 Funded with FY 2010 funds. 5 Funded with FY 2011 funds.

We have endeavored to make our determine if a change in status is Author(s) listing actions as efficient and timely as warranted, including the need to make possible, given the requirements of the prompt use of emergency-listing The primary authors of this notice are relevant law and regulations and procedures. the staff members of the Marine constraints relating to workload and We intend that any proposed listing Mammals Management Office and the personnel. We are continually determination for the Pacific walrus will Fisheries and Ecological Services considering ways to streamline be as accurate as possible. Therefore, we Division of the Alaska Regional Office. will continue to accept additional processes or achieve economies of scale, Authority such as by batching related actions information and comments from all together. Given our limited budget for concerned governmental agencies, the The authority for this section is implementing section 4 of the Act, these scientific community, the subsistence section 4 of the Endangered Species Act actions described above collectively community, industry, or any other of 1973, as amended (16 U.S.C. 1531 et interested party concerning this finding. constitute expeditious progress. seq.). The Pacific walrus will be added to References Cited Dated: January 21, 2011. the list of candidate species upon A complete list of references cited is Rowan W. Gould, publication of this 12-month finding. available on the Internet at http:// Acting Director, Fish and Wildlife Service. We will continue to monitor the status www.regulations.gov and upon request of this population as new information from the Alaska Marine Mammals Office [FR Doc. 2011–2400 Filed 2–9–11; 8:45 am] becomes available. This review will (see ADDRESSES section). BILLING CODE 4310–55–P

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