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The Challenge of Globalization for Large Chinese Firms

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The Challenge of Globalization for Large Chinese Firms UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBALIZATION FOR LARGE CHINESE FIRMS Peter Nolan and Jin Zhang No. 162 July 2002 DISCUSSION PAPERS THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBALIZATION FOR LARGE CHINESE FIRMS Peter Nolan and Jin Zhang No. 162 July 2002 UNCTAD/OSG/DP/162 ii The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD. The designations and terminology employed are also those of the author. UNCTAD Discussion Papers are read anonymously by at least one referee, whose comments are taken into account before publication. Comments on this paper are invited and may be addressed to the author, c/o the Publications Assistant,* Macroeconomic and Development Policies, GDS, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Copies of Discussion Papers may also be obtained from this address. New Discussion Papers are available on the website at: http.//www.unctad.org/en/pub/pubframe/htm * Fax: (+41) (0)22.907.0274; E-mail: [email protected] JEL classification: F2, L1, M2, O2, P2 iii CONTENTS Page Abstract................................................................................................................................ 1 I. CHINA AND THE GLOBAL BUSINESS REVOLUTION ........................................................... 1 A. China’s reforms ................................................................................................. 2 1. Lessons from other countries ..................................................................... 2 2. China’s ambitions ..................................................................................... 2 3. China’s progress ....................................................................................... 3 4. China’s difficulties ................................................................................... 3 5. The challenge for China ............................................................................ 5 B. The global business revolution ............................................................................ 6 1. Liberalization of world trade and capital markets ........................................ 6 2. Explosive M&A and concentration ............................................................ 7 3. ‘Cascade effect’ ........................................................................................ 8 4. The ‘external firm’ .................................................................................... 8 5. Dominance of firms based in advanced economies ...................................... 8 C. Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 9 II. OIL AND PETROCHEMICALS .......................................................................................... 11 A. The global setting ............................................................................................... 11 1. World oil and gas in the 1990s ................................................................... 11 2. National oil companies............................................................................... 14 3. Merger frenzy ........................................................................................... 15 4. Conclusion: Competitive obstacles for firms based in developing countries ................................................................................. 20 B. China’s response ................................................................................................ 20 1. The 1998 reorganization of China’s oil industry .......................................... 21 2. The year 2000 flotation of PetroChina and Sinopec ..................................... 21 3. Business capabilities ................................................................................. 22 4. Organizational structure ............................................................................ 27 5. The competitive landscape ........................................................................ 29 6. Conclusion ............................................................................................... 30 iv III. AEROSPACE ................................................................................................................. 31 A. Globa l trends ..................................................................................................... 31 1. Consolidation ........................................................................................... 31 2. Systems integration ................................................................................... 35 3. The ‘cascade’ effect .................................................................................. 36 4. Embraer ................................................................................................... 37 5. Conclusion: Competitive obstacles for firms based in developing countries ................................................................................. 38 B. China’s response ................................................................................................ 40 1. Ambitions and successes ........................................................................... 40 2. AVIC’s businesses and structure ............................................................... 41 3. Development setbacks .............................................................................. 44 4. 1999 Restructuring: splitting into two ......................................................... 46 5. Development plans ................................................................................... 47 6. Conclusion ............................................................................................... 49 IV. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 51 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 53 List of tables 1 Dominance of firms based in high-income countries of the global big business revolution ....................................................................................... 10 2 Geographical distribution of world oil and gas reserves, consumption and production, 2000 ............................................................................... 12 3 Top 15 national oil companies, 1999 ............................................................................. 13 4 Operating data compared: global majors vs PetroChina and Sinopec, 2000 ...................... 16 5 Financial indicators compared: global majors vs PetroChina and Sinopec, 2000 ............... 16 6 Top 10 ethylene producers vs PetroChina and Sinopec Corp. .......................................... 25 7 Market share of imported oil products and petrochemicals in China, 2000 ....................... 25 8 Proposed major Sino-foreign petrochemical joint ventures ............................................. 29 9 International arms deliveries within East Asia, 1987 and 1998 ........................................ 32 10 Principal mergers and acquisitions in the United States defence industry, 1994-1998 ....... 33 11 Share of R&D spending financed by government for aerospace, 1970 and 1990 .............. 38 12 World leading aerospace and defence company, 2000 .................................................... 39 13 Relative size of selected aerospace companies, 1997 and 2000 ........................................ 42 THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBALIZATION FOR LARGE CHINESE FIRMS1 Peter Nolan and Jin Zhang Judge Institute of Management Studies, University of Cambridge Abstract As China joins the World Trade Organization, the author questions whether China’s large firms will be able to compete on the global level playing field. Over the past two decades, Chinese large enterprises have undertaken extensive evolutionary change but, at the same time, the world’s leading firms have undergone a revolutionary transformation. Based on analysis of firms with the aerospace, oil and petrochemical industry, the authors conclude that China’s leading firms face critical challenges, even in sectors in which China’s policy makers have scored significant successes. I. CHINA AND THE GLOBAL BUSINESS REVOLUTION China’s entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is a historic milestone in the process of China’s integration with the world economy and business system. Among the many important possible effects is the impact on its large firms. In the course of two decades of struggle, China’s large enterprises have undertaken large-scale evolutionary change. During the same period, the world’s leading firms have undergone a revolutionary transformation. This poses a deep challenge for China’s large firms at the point of entry to the WTO. During the global business revolution, in order to survive and prosper, the nature of the large firm based in high-income countries altered greatly. The inter- twining of China’s internal business system change with the revolution in large global firms has been a protracted and complicated process.2 It is far from over. 1 This paper was originally prepared for the Third United Kingdom-China Forum in October 2001. Professor Peter Nolan facilitated the discussions for the Industry Committee, Finance and Economy Committee of the Forum. Leaders of major firms from the United Kingdom and China participated
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