CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT PARADIGMS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES John C. Schmidt Janet Quinney Lawson Chair in Colorado River Studies Beth Neilson, David Rosenberg, David Tarboton, Brad Udall, Kevin Wheeler et al Outline • Investigating unreasonable ideas • Water supply decisions affect ecosystem outcomes • The Future of the Colorado River project • Overview • Building tools • Modeling approaches • The need for river ecosystem goals Can we achieve better outcomes for both water users and the environment by considering outside-the-box solutions? reasonable ideas often begin as unreasonable ideas -------- some reasonable management options started out as unreasonable ideas; some unreasonable ideas stayed that way Establishment of Grand Canyon National Monument 1907 Some people perceived these ideas as unreasonable LaRue, 1916, US Geological Survey WYOMING vitwringi UT propyo MA7 FLAMING GORGE central projectectact 4rar the utah RESERVOIR SIT dbounliful 0 Is vitally needed to divert surplus wateismateiswaters of the SAL AL ERN green DI erslonERSION river drainage westward via the strawberry F- great X SALT aqueduct into the salt lake basin an area LAKE of denser population and greater beneficial use CITY aqueductaquequct pork 0.0 would irrigate 450000 acres of land 150000 acres rayroy ity previously unirrigated and 300000 acres now insuf- ECHO PARK ce v0va 0 RESERVOIR ficiently irrigated doubling the area with a full aloo I1 lak ECHO PARK SITE batesSATES AOUEDLICT season water supply in utah RESERVOI TRAWBERRY ST AKER thoeletooeleTo oelsoele MIDWAY AQUEDUCT 080080.ebe littt2 1 SITE expand also rl COTTONWOO el heberhaber 0 would agriculture primarily but TUNNEL a develop nearly one third the hydroelectrichydro electric output of D crkark hoover boulder furnishing low cost power L reservalkeserReserreservarvarvam dam ericon for project purposes and industrial expansion N 1 rk 0 would help the upper basin states to meet the re- 4qaq 0 aimalmgim quirementsquirements of the colorado river compact at lee ferry and provide exchange water for irrigation and provo starvation w11 d RESERVOIR SITE domestic use in the uinta basin by means of hold- over storage reservoirs on the green river at echo 0 R r park and flaming gorge rk strawberry PDYXIW RESERVOIR whlewhiewh le 9 would divert water from a point as far eastcast as little enlargmentenlargement izi brush creek through a 300 mile system of man thistle ov made tunnels canals conduits penpenstocksstocks power ekE k S fainfqin plants and reservoirs under the project plan reaching lands as far distant as kanosh in southwestern utah al would replace uinta basin water losses by diverting storage water from echo park reservoir pumping WASATCH explanation YER ejaaja AQUEDUC t1ta sahidschid or flaming gorge reservoir gravity flow 0ja J irrigated londland RESERVOIR nephi SITE D tiiilllii helper irrigobls londland PRINCIPAL statistics tunnel r 0 f&vww echo park concrete gravity 529 feet high price penstock da dam b levonleyon t constructed reservoir echo park reservoir 6400000 acre feet capacity 0 sd tb proposed reservoir siphon echo park aqueduct 132 miles echo park power plant 145000 kw installed capacity with a total developed power head of 2900 feet flaming gorge dam concrete gravity 350 feet high SEVIER BRIDG flaming gorge reservoir acre feet capacity SEVIER G R AV ifYla14 RESERVOIR 3000000 CANAL l4 ENIARGMEN flaming gorge tunnel 22 miles long strawberry aqueduct tunnels 90miles90 miles conduit cr 20 miles strawberry enlargement 2000000 acre feet colio reservoir hoidenholden capacity new strawberry dam soldier creek 300 feet earthearthfillearthfallfill power 4 UNITED STATES diamond creek division plants on diamond department of THE INTERIOR creek with about 240000 kw installed capacity A sureauBUREAU OF reclamation bates reservoir 75000 acre feet capacity CENTRAL UTAH PROJECT wasatch aqueduct 73 miles GENERAL MAP 40 midway little cottonwood tunnel 14 miles richfieldcaRichfield ca 194t sevier gravity canal 97 miles iziver Pacific Southwest Water Plan Large-scale importation of water from outside the basin, including desalinization plants in the Lower Basin; power needs met by nuclear power plants, coal plants, hydropower plants (e.g., Bridge Canyon, Marble Canyon), Central Arizona Project North American Water and Power Alliance; deliver 78 maf/yr to US 1977, install turbines on river outlets, rewind turbines, re-regulating dams, pump back storage 1996 – the first controlled flood Concept first discussed in late 1980s. First formal science plans for a controlled flood ~1993 Fill Mead First -- establish Lake Mead as the primary reservoir 2015 storage facility; store water in Lake Powell only when Lake Mead is full. Fill Mead First Proposal • Phase I – reduce storage in Lake Powell to minimum power pool elevation (3490 ft asl) • Phase II – reduce storage in Lake Powell to dead pool (3370 ft asl) • Phase III – drill new diversion tunnels and fully drain Lake Powell The solution to one problem sometimes creates another problem … the failure to adequately consider water supply and ecosystem issues as a joint problem Reservoir equalization and fine sediment mass balance During the first 6 years of the HFE Protocol, the total inputs of sand from the Paria and Little Colorado Rivers approximately equaled the amount of sand delivered to Lake Mead. Mainstem flow Mainstem flow and sediment6,800,000 mt (sand) Tributary flow and sedimentSediment budget reach RM 0-30 – upper Marble Canyon RM 30-61 – lower Marble Canyon RM 61-87 – eastern Grand Canyon RM 87-166 – central Grand Canyon RM 166-225 – western Grand Canyon -65,000 to 2,600,000 mt upper Marble Canyon 10,000 – 2,600,000 mt accumulated in east-central Grand Canyon 230,000 – 1,500,000 mt accumulated in lower Marble Canyon -1,100,000 to 1,200,000 mt west- 2,700,000 to central Grand Canyon 580,000 mt evacuated from eastern Grand 2,400,000 mt (sand) Canyon 9,300,000 – 10,000,000 mt of sand delivered to Lake Mead July 1, 2012 – June 30, 2018 USGS/ GCMRC median fall HFE This was a period of relatively large inputs of sand from spring HFE the Paria River Equalization releases Powell inflows Equalization releases were 12.7 million acre feet in WY 2011 and were released primarily between May 15 – December 31, 2011 Powell releases Equalization occurred in a year of a failed monsoon and very little sand delivery from the Paria River In the years of equalization, there was evacuation of sand from Marble Canyon and eastern Grand Canyon. 2.3 million tons (inputs); ~5.6 million tons (delivered to Lake Mead) July 1, 2010 – June 30, 1,500,000 mt (sand) 2012 Mainstem flow Mainstem flow and sediment Tributary flow and sedimentSediment budget reach RM 0-30 – upper Marble Canyon RM 30-61 – lower Marble Canyon RM 61-87 – eastern Grand Canyon RM 87-166 – central Grand Canyon RM 166-225 – western Grand Canyon 1,000,000 – 330,000 mt evacuated from upper Marble Canyon -860,000 to 440,000 mt east-central Grand Canyon 910,000 – 350,000 mt evacuated from lower Marble Canyon -610,000 to 520,000 mt west- central Grand Canyon 1,600,000 – 620,000 mt evacuated from 5,300,000 – 5,900,000 mt eastern Grand delivered to Lake Mead Canyon 810,000 mt (sand) Spillways – 3648’ (Warm) Powerplant – 3470’ (Cold/Warm) River Outlets – 3374’ (Cold) Water storage controls water release temperatures and therefore controls river ecosystems Thermal regime of the modern river Dibble et al, in review Dibble et al., In Prep. River temperature regimes in the future will be more affected by storage volumes in reservoirs (associated with declining runoff) than by air temperature Dibble et al, in review Future of the Colorado River project Climate change … decline in watershed runoff, increase in duration of years causes … of low runoff, and increased variability in year-to-year runoff and necessitates … renegotiation of 2007 Interim Guidelines political response … and related Law of the River agreements that necessitates … changes in rules of reservoir operations and reservoir management response … releases to meet water supply and environmental objectives that cause changes in the … changes in flow regime, sediment supply, river drivers of regulated river temperature, and other water quality parameters of releases ecosystems, such as … from reservoirs kept relatively full or relatively empty Walton, Catena, other funding that cause changes in the attributes of the novel … changes in aquatic food base and changes in non-native aquatic ecosystems that and native fish communities in river segments whose stream presently exist in each flow primarily comes from reservoir releases part of the Colorado River system, such as … USGS/SW CASC funding Future of the Colorado River Project The philosophy of the Futures project is that water-supply and environmental river management issues are better considered as one integrated, joint problem, rather than as a sequential water-supply first, river-ecosystem-second, process. The most desirable approach to developing future river management scenarios is to identify strategies that meet both water supply and river ecosystem objectives. water ecosystems supply What alternative Colorado River water-supply allocation and reservoir operations can provide reliable water supply while also enhancing riverine ecosystems? Project Goals • develop new tools and approaches by which the river-ecosystem outcomes of water-supply decisions can be considered (within and outside of CRSS/Riverware framework) (initial foci are on flow regime and temperature; secondary foci on