April 4, 2011 Company Report OCI (010060 KS) Chemicals Polysilicon price to exceed expectations Yeonju Park +822-768-3061
[email protected] Initiate coverage with Buy call and TP of W670,000 Hannah Yoon We initiate our coverage on OCI with a Buy call and a target price of W670,000 +822-768-4161 (based on a 2011F P/E of 15x; the value of the polysilicon business was derived by
[email protected] applying a target EV/EBITDA of 8x to the average of its 2011F~2013F EBITDAs). Considering OCI is forecast to show a CAGR of a whopping 53% until 2012, we believe that our optimistic 2011 earnings forecasts are reasonable. Greater-than-expected solar power demand to drive up polysilicon prices In 2011, solar power demand is anticipated to exceed the market consensus forecast. In the aftermath of the earthquake in Japan, major European nations and the U.S. are likely to maintain generous subsidies for the solar power industry. With Buy (Initiate) a drop in installation costs, generous subsidies would result in a higher internal rate Target Price (12M, W) 670,000 of return, which would drive demand, as in 2010. Share Price (04/01/11, W) 498,000 Expected Return (%): 34.5 34.5 Strong solar power demand should further tighten the already-tight supply of EPS Growth (11F, %) 65.8 polysilicon. In the polysilicon market, only a few firms with cost and quality Market EPS Growth (11F, %) 20.9 competitiveness are capable of achieving aggressive capacity expansion. In light of P/E (X) 11.2 OCIÊs high quality products and strong cost competitiveness (two key elements of Market P/E (04/01/11F, x) 10.8 its polysilicon businessÊ competitiveness), we believe that the company will be able KOSPI(04/01/11F) 2,121.01 to maintain its competitive position in both the near term and the long term.