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Cpi 4/ 394 114 73,109 44,069 780 -12 7 7 - 6 - ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 7 - Bosnia and Herzegovina: Basic Data I/ Acril June Estimate Estimate 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 GDP (millions of U.S. dollars) 10,471 8,670 2,265 2,500 . Population (millions) 27 4.37 4.38 4.24 4.11 4.14 4.12 . Per capita GDP 2,396 1.979 547 607 Industrial production 3/ (index 1991 * 100) 112 100 25 2 1 5 8 9 Employment, end-period 37 535.066 143,952 220,396 236,051 (Percent change, annual average or annualized from end-1995) Real GDP -9 -20 7 CPI 4/ 394 114 73,109 44,069 780 -12 7 7 (Percent change, end-of-period) M2 in the Federation 57 67 ... ... 33 122 Money 67 ... ... 45 119 Currency 6/ ... ... 595 309 Demand deposits €/ ... ... 35 105 Quasi -money 6/ -12 138 M2 in the Republika Srpska <&/ 7/ ... ... -24 -20 Money ... ... -21 -89 Currency ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Demand deposits 6/ ... ... -36 -80 Quasi -money 6/ ... ... -25 9 (In millions of DM) Consolidated government £/ Revenue ... 557 1,043 Expenditures ... 896 1,313 Balance ... -339 -270 (In millions of U.S. dollars) External current account balance 9/ . -506 -511 Exports 107 1,990 2,120 495 7 91 152 Imports 107 1,953 1,673 429 60 894 1,082 Net invisibles 9/ ... ... ... ... 299 419 Gross official international reserves 3/ ... 17 66 111 Memorandum items : Exchange rate (period average) BiH dinar per dautsche mark 117 ... ... ... ... ... 100 100 100 Yugoslav dinar per deutsche mark 127 ... ... 1.16 2.72 3.5 3.5 Gross official reserves 137 ... ... ... 0.23 0.79 Sources: State Statistics Institute, National Bank of BiH, Ministries of Finance, and staff estimates. I/ Data refer to the entire country, unless otherwise indicated. Note that for Republika Srpska during 1995, industrial and agricultural output fell by 15 percent and 30 percent, respectively; inflation was 204 percent. 27 Data from 1993 on include refugees overseas. 37 Data for the Bosniac-majority area. 4/ 1992-93 data for the Bosniac-majority area; post-1993 data for Federation. 5/ M2 is defined as domestic currency, plus demand deposits and time and savings deposits (in Bosnian dinar and foreign currency). 6/ 1996 estimates are annualized changes from end-1995. !_/ M2 is defined as demand deposits and time and savings deposits (in Yugoslav dinar). 87 Excludes municipal and district government operations. Excludes military expenditures financed by external grants. Includes international interest arrears. 97 Excluding official transfers. .107 Data for 1992-93 are based on limited customs data for the Bosniac-majority area. 1994 and 1995 data are rough estimates for the whole territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 117 Official rate. Parallel rate not collected by the National Bank of BiH. 127 Parallel rate in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. 137 In months of merchandise imports. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -8- I. Summary and Overview This is the first report on Recent Economic Developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina became a member of the International Monetary Fund on December 20, 1995, succeeding to a share of the membership of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) in the IMF; on the same day it also became the first member to make use of IMF resources under its new policy on emergency assistance for post-conflict countries. Only one week earlier the Presidents of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia/Montenegro) (FRY) signed the Dayton/Paris Treaty, ending the war that had begun shortly after the country declared its independence in March 1992. The economic and social situation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is distressing. As indicated in Chapter II, most of the prewar population of 4.4 million has been displaced; over one million are refugees overseas; roughly 250,000 are dead or missing; and many more have been injured. The education and health systems are barely functional in most of the country, deficient water and sanitation pose a looming health threat, and there are an up to four million land mines—more than the remaining population—which will require immense efforts to detect and remove. With real GDP at only about 20-25 percent of its prewar level and unemployment estimated at over 50 percent of the labor force, governments in Bosnia and Herzegovina lack fiscal resources to address these urgent needs. External humanitarian aid provided a lifeline for an estimated 2.4 million residents last year, and is continuing to play an important role in peacetime. However, the authorities recognize that the resolution of these problems will depend primarily on the efforts of the country itself. In addition to the damage inflicted by the war, Bosnia and Herzegovina faces two other major handicaps—its political fragmentation, and the structural imbalances inherited from the former SFRY. The strategy for reconstruction and economic recovery will need to be based in large part op measures to overcome these problems. Under the Dayton/Paris Treaty, economic policy responsibilities are to be shared among the State government and those of the two Entities—the Bosniac-Croat Federation and the Republika Srpska—with most of the implementation of fiscal policy, as well as many structural issues, in the hands of the Entities. The design and implementation of a program to address the country's difficult economic situation will thus require cooperation among all regions. So far there has been only slow progress in establishing such cooperation in either the political or the economic sphere. The Federation is not yet fully operational, even though its Constitution became effective 2V£ years ago, and there is little cooperation between the Federation and the Republika Srpska. It is to be hoped that this situation will improve following country- and Entity-wide elections, scheduled for September 14, 1996. The authorities' economic program will need to promote financial discipline and market-oriented structural reform; and if it is to succeed, strong efforts on the part of Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to receive strong technical and financial support from the ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -9- international community. A broad range of structural measures is required to complete the transition, including banking and enterprise reforms; price, exchange, and trade liberalization; and establishment of the legal and institutional framework for a market economy, in areas such as ownership of enterprises and land, contracts, domestic and foreign investment, labor relations, accounting and auditing, bankruptcy, and regulatory policies. Chapter III describes the monetary arrangements that have evolved in the Federation and Republika Srpska, and summarizes recent financial developments. Four currencies are widely used in various parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina—the German mark (DM) throughout the country, the Bosnia and Herzegovina dinar in the Bosniac-majority area, the Croatian kuna in the Croat-majority area, and the Yugoslav dinar (the currency of the FRY) in the Republika Srpska. Through tight restraint on the expansion of domestic credit, the National Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has brought about rapid disinflation and currency stability in the Federation. The Republika Srpska has also tightened policy within the limits imposed by its monetary union with the FRY, with beneficial results particularly evident in 1996. The Dayton/Paris Treaty envisages the establishment of a new, country-wide Central Bank, operating as a currency board and issuing a new domestic currency. Efforts to promote monetary discipline have been underpinned by the elimination of government borrowing from the banking system in the Federation, and the reduction of such borrowing in the Republika Srpska. Chapter IV summarizes the new fiscal arrangements that are to be put in place in the Federation and State governments, as part of the implementation of the peace treaty. It also describes the technical assistance recommendations that have been provided to the Federation on several aspects of fiscal federalism and tax reform, which are broadly applicable to the treatment of the same issues by the Republika Srpska and State government. Chapter V provides an overview of recent balance of payments developments and the external financing requirements associated with the authorities' priority reconstruction program. An fuller presentation of the reconstruction program can be found in "Bosnia and Herzegovina—The Priority Reconstruction and Recovery Programs: The Challenges Ahead," prepared in April 1996 for the Second Donor's Conference by the World Bank, EU Commission, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. This chapter also describes the exchange rate and trade systems of the two Entities. At present these systems are highly restrictive—a relic of the war and of economic sanctions that were imposed on the Republika Srpska until end-February 1996. Finally, Chapter VI contains an assessment of macroeconomic statistics in Bosnia and Herzegovina and a summary of IMF technical assistance activities. The statistical system was weakened by the war and, like other public institutions, divided among the regions. As a result, the limited coverage and quality of economic statistics undermines the capacity for policy implementation and monitoring. A determined and cooperative effort by the authorities, supported by external technical assistance, is required to address this problem. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -10- This document
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