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The Global Terrorism Database (Gtd) Announcing the Release of New Global Terrorism Data Through 2010 THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATABASE (GTD) ANNOUNCING THE RELEASE OF NEW GLOBAL TERRORISM DATA THROUGH 2010 JUNE 29, 2011 ERIN MILLER GTD PROJECT MANAGER National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A CENTER OF EXCELLENCE SUPPORTED BY THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY The Global Terrorism Database INTRODUCTION: WHAT IS THE GTD? The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is an openopen--sourcesource database including information on domestic and international terrorist events around the world since 1970 ((ypcurrently updated through 2010). It contains data on where, when, and how over 98,000 tittterrorist events occurre d. WHAT IS THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATABASE? Origins of the GTD ––““GTD1” 1970-1997 (PGIS/START) – “GTD2” 19981998--20072007 (CETIS/START) – 2008-present (ISVG/START) Sources – Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS) – Newspapers/ Newswires – Rdi/TVTRadio/TV Transcri itpts – Terrorism Chronologies – SDState Department Reports – World Wide Web PGIS DATA COLLECTION DEFINITION OF TERRORISM “Acts by nonnon--statestate actors involving the threatened or actual use of illegal force or violence to attain a political, economic, religious or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation.” DEFINITION OF TERRORISM (CONT.) Mandatory inclusion criteria: – The incident must be intentional –the– the result of a conscilltithtfttious calculation on the part of a perpetrator. – The incident must entail some level of violence (includes property violence) or the threat of violence. – There must be sub -national perpetrators At least two of the following criteria must be met: 1) The act must be aimed at attaining a political , economic , religious, or social goal. In terms of economic goals, the exclusive pursuit of profit does not satisfy this criterion 2) There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger audience (or audiences) than the immediate victims. 3) The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare activities, i.e. the act must be outside the parameters permitte d by in terna tiona l humanit ar ian l aw ( parti cul arl y th e admonition against deliberately targeting civilians or nonnon-- combatants). TYPES OF INFORMATION INCLUDED Type of terrorist activity Is the U.S. the target? – Assassination Terrorist groups involved – Armed Assault Weapons used – Bbi/EliBombing/Explosion – Facility/Infrastructure Attack Target characteristics ––HijackingHijacking Incident outcome – Hostage Taking (Barricade) Casualties and injuries – Hostage Taking (Kidnapping) – Unarmed Assault Property damage Incident date City/province/ country/ reg ion Improving the Global Terrorism Database METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES IMPROVING THE GTD: VALIDITY IMPROVING THE GTD: C ODING CONSISTENCY Example: Perpetrator Group Names Shining Path (SL) (S.L.) Shining Path Sendero Luminoso Sundero Luminoso Shining Path (SL) Sendero Shining Path Org. Sendero Rojo (Red Path) Bright Path(Path(SenderoSendero LuminosoLuminoso)) Sendero LuminosaLuminosa-- Columbian Revolutionary Communist Party of Peru Armed Frc SdSandero LiLuminoso SL Group of Extremists (probably Sendero Luminoso Shining Path) Luminous Path Shining Path Moaist Shining Group Shining Path guerrillas Supporters Jailed Peruvian Maoist Shining Path Sendero Luminos Leader seudero luminoso SC Maaist Shining Path unkbt(Shiiknown saboteurs (Shining Path suspected) IMPROVING THE GTD: SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION DthfDepth of coverage t tdtbends to be sacr ifidfificed for breadth. Goal: Include all incidents of terrorism in the GTD. Solution: Compare the GTD to many different sources of terrorism event data to check for missing cases and add them to the database. SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION: UNITED STATES Terrorist Attacks in the United States, 1970-2010 500 450 400 350 300 SlSupplementa l 250 Original Data requency FF 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Global Terrorism Database Year SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION: SRI LANKA Terrorist Attacks in Sri Lanka, 1970-2010 600 500 Supplemental 400 Original Data 300 Frequency 200 100 0 Year Source: Global Terrorism Database SUPPLEMENTAL DATA COLLECTION: ALGERIA Terrorist Attacks in Algeria, 1970-2010 400 350 300 Supplemental 250 Original Data 200 requency FF 150 100 50 0 Source: Global Terrorism Database Year EXPANDING THE GTD: N EW VARIABLES Suicide Attacks IED Involvement International/Domestic Indicator Location/Location/GeocodingGeocoding Global Terrorism Database PATTERNS OF TERRORISM 19701970--20102010 TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010 N=98,112 6000 Total Attacks 5000 Fatal Attacks Fatalities >10 4000 yy 3000 Frequenc 2000 1000 0 Source: Global Terrorism Database Year Patterns of Terrorism LOCATION TWENTY TOP RANKING COUNTRIES: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATALITIES, 1970-2010 Most Frequently Attacked Most Fatalities Rank Country Attack Count Country Fatality Count 1 Colombia 7,180 Iraq 25,026 2 Iraq 6,475 India 15,866 3 IdiIndia 6, 114 SiSri LkLanka 15,481 4 Peru 6,045 Colombia 13,271 5 El Salvador 5,327 Peru 12,850 6 Pakistan 4,436 El Salvador 12,496 7 Northern Ireland 3,885 Nicaragua 11,324 8 Spain 3,205 Pakistan 10,107 9 Philippines 3,191 Algeria 10,047 10 Sri Lanka 2,924 Philippines 6,881 11 Turkey 2,745 Afghanistan 6,273 12 Afghanistan 2,585 Guatemala 5,150 13 Algeria 2,357 Turkey 4,725 14 United States 2,347 Burundi 4,114 15 Chile 2,305 Russia 3,507 16 Guatemala 2,035 United States 3,469 17 Lebanon 2,016 Lebanon 3,272 18 Nicaragua 1,986 Rwanda 3,210 19 South Africa 1,921 Angola 2,853 20 Thailand 1,697 Northern Ireland 2,849 Source: Global Terrorism Database ATTACKS & FATALITIES BY REGION, 1970-1970-20102010 ASIA MIDDLE EAST &N& NORTH AFRICA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN INCIDENTS SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FATALITIES NORTH AMERICA RUSSIA & THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT STATES (NIS) AUSTRALASIA &O& OCEANIA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: Global Terrorism Database Patterns of Terrorism WEAPONS WEAPONS USED IN TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010 (N=98,,)112) Melee Incendiary 2. 14% Other 7.58% 0.49% Unknown 8.47% Explosives/ Bombs/ Dynamite Firearms 45.85% 35.48% Source: Global Terrorism Database “TACTICALLY COMPLEX” ATTACKS BY TERRORISTS, 1970-2010 160 140 120 100 ttacks AA 80 60 umber of NN 40 20 0 Source: Global Terrorism Database Year Patterns of Terrorism LETHALITY TOTAL FATALITIES PER TERRORIST ATTACK, 1970-2010 (N=98,112*) 70 60 57.23 50 48.05 tt 40 1970-2004 nnnn 2005-2010 PercePerce 30 23.40 19.08 20 16.58 12.51 10 6526.52 6976.97 3.26 3.47 1.40 1.53 0 0 1 2 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 25 over 25 Number of Fatalities *Data on fatalities were missing in 7.0% of cases Source: Global Terrorism Database Patterns of Terrorism PERPETRATORS TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010 Rank Perpetrator Attack Count Fatalities 1 Shining Path (SL) 4518 11666 2 Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) 3357 8508 3 Irish Republican Army (IRA) 2673 1807 4 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 2005 821 5 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 1907 5004 6 Taliban 1799 4740 7 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 1600 10841 8 National Liberation Army of Colombia (ELN) 1308 1761 9 New People's Army (NPA) 1283 3385 10 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 1191 3571 11 Communist Party of India ‐ Maoist (CPI‐M) 1040 1554 12 Nicaraguan Democratic Force (FDN) 899 7268 13 Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (FPMR) 830 93 14 African National Congress (South Africa) 606 624 15 Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC) 572 13 16 M‐19 (Movement of April 19) 564 1402 17 Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) 561 560 18 People's Liberation Front (JVP) 434 891 19 National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) 421 2562 20 Hizballah 366 1189 Source: Global Terrorism Database TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 2005-2010 Rank Perpetrator Attack Count Fatalities 1 Taliban 1669 4419 2 Communist Party of India ‐ Maoist (CPI‐M) 1040 1554 3 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 468 1567 4 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 410 431 5 New People's Army (NPA) 237 184 6 Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) 174 1839 7 Al‐Qa`ida in Iraq 159 1789 8 Al‐Shabaab 156 614 9 United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) 147 303 10 Tehrik‐i‐Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 130 1133 11 Al‐Qa`ida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb ((QAQLIM ) 127 510 12 Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 119 151 13 Salafist Group for Preaching and Fighting (GSPC) 110 256 14 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 105 120 15 PlPales tiitinian IlIslam ic Jiha d (PIJ) 102 67 16 Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) 95 864 17 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 94 21 18 Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) 86 109 19 Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) 82 103 20 Al‐Aqsa Martyrs Brigade 79 57 Source: Global Terrorism Database LONGEVITY OF TERRORIST GROUPS 1970-2010 80 70 60 50 t nn 40 Perce 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ Life Span of Group (In Years) Source: Global Terrorism Database Global Terrorism Database: Research INVESTIGATING PATTERNS OF TERRORISM AND THE IMPACT OF COUNTERTERRORISM Effects of Counterterrorism Strategies Terrorist Attacks by Irish Republicans 250 200 150 ency uu 100 Freq 50 0 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 OtiMtOperation Motorman Loughgall Incident Falls Curfew Criminalization Gibraltar Incident Internment Source: LaFree, Dugan and Korte (2009) TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS OF CLASSIFICATION OF 53 ANTI‐U.S. GROUPS COUNTRY TRAJECTORIES “BIRTH” TRAJECTORIES OF PATTERNS OF DECLINE AMONG TERRORIST PERPETRATORS TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS Global Terrorism Database Outreach Website and GTD Tools www.start.umd.edu/gtd GTD DATA RIVERS ADVANCED SEARCH SEARCH RESULTS AND GRAPHING www.start.umd.edu/gtd Questions? Comments? www.start.umd.edu/gtd [email protected].
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