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Planning for Autonomous Mobility (PAS Report 592) PAS REPORT 5 9 2 PLANNING FOR AUTONOMOUS MOBILITY Jeremy Crute, William Riggs, AICP, Timothy S. Chapin, and Lindsay Stevens, AICP ABOUT THE AUTHORS APA RESEARCH MISSION Jeremy Crute has been the senior planner in Florida State University’s Depart- ment of Urban and Regional Planning for the last four years. There he has man- APA conducts applied, policy-relevant research that aged a wide range of applied and scholarly research projects on community advances the state of the art in planning practice. redevelopment, transportation, and land-use issues. He has prior professional APA’s National Centers for Planning—the Green community development experience in Chattanooga, Tennessee, and Atlanta, Communities Center, the Hazards Planning Center, Georgia. He holds a master of science degree in urban and regional planning and the Planning and Community Health Center— from Florida State University, and bachelors degrees in economics and com- guide and advance a research directive that address- munity development from Covenant College. es important societal issues. APA’s research, educa- William (Billy) Riggs, aicp, phd, leed ap, is a global expert and thought leader tion, and advocacy programs help planners create in the areas of future mobility and smart transportation, housing, economics, communities of lasting value by developing and dis- and urban development. He is a professor at the University of San Francisco seminating information, tools, and applications for School of Management, and an advisor to multiple companies and start-ups on built and natural environments. technology, smart mobility, and urban development. This follows two decades of work as a planner, economist, and engineer. He has written more than 100 publications; been featured in multiple global media outlets such as the Econo- mist, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and The Atlantic; and is the author of Disruptive Transport: Driverless Cars, Transport Innovation and the Sustainable Since 1949, the American Planning Association’s Planning Advisory Service has City of Tomorrow (Routledge, forthcoming). He sits on Palo Alto, California’s provided planners with expert research, authoritative information on best prac- Planning and Transportation Commission. tices and innovative solutions, and practical tools to help them manage on-the- Timothy S. Chapin, phd, is the dean of the College of Social Sciences and Pub- job challenges. PAS Reports are produced in the Research Department of APA. lic Policy and a professor in the Department of Urban & Regional Planning James M. Drinan, jd, Chief Executive Officer; David C. Rouse, faicp, Managing at Florida State University, where he has studied the effectiveness of Florida’s Director of Research and Advisory Services; Ann F. Dillemuth, aicp, Editor. APA growth management regime, assessed the success of planning efforts in shaping membership includes access to all PAS publications, including PAS Reports, PAS development outcomes, and evaluated the role of sports facilities in the pro- Memo, and PAS QuickNotes. Learn more at planning.org/pas. motion of urban redevelopment. His current research interests revolve around how autonomous vehicles and national demographic trends will influence ur- ban development and transportation activities in Florida and the United States. Recipients of print editions of PAS Reports with missing or damaged copies: Over his career, he has secured more than $3 million in funding from federal, Contact APA Customer Service 312-431-9100 or [email protected]) state, and local governments to support his research. Chapin has also served as within 90 days of the publication date. interim editor, senior associate editor, and review editor for the Journal of the American Planning Association. ©September 2018 American Planning Association, which has offices at 205 N. Michigan Ave., Suite 1200, Chicago, IL 60601-5927, and 1030 15th St., NW, Lindsay Stevens, aicp, is the land program manager for the Florida Chapter of The Nature Conservancy, where she provides strategic leadership for land Suite 750 West, Washington, DC 20005-1503; planning.org. All rights reserved. protection efforts including implementation of conservation real estate transac- No part of this publication may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any tions and planning for the protection of critical areas in Florida. Prior to joining means without permission in writing from APA. The Nature Conservancy, Stevens was planner-in-residence for the Florida State University Department of Urban and Regional Planning, where she worked on a wide variety of land-use and transportation planning projects, includ- ISBN: 978-1-61190-200-6 ing the potential impact of automated vehicles on development of urban areas in Florida. Stevens has also worked for Wakulla County, Florida, as assistant county administrator, with The Trust for Public Land on conservation real es- Email: [email protected] tate and planning projects, and as a land-use and real estate attorney with Baker & Hostetler LLP. ON THE COVER Preparing cities for autonomous (self-driving) transportation re- search project, Chicago’s West Loop (Stantec’s Urban Places) TABLE OF CONTENTS INFOGRAPHIC 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 6 Planning, Uncertainty, and the Revolution 8 About This Report 9 CHAPTER 2 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 101 14 The Technology: What Is It and How Does It Work? 15 AV Ownership and the Rise of Shared AVs 20 Timeline for AV Adoption 21 Conclusion 24 CHAPTER 3 PLANNING OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN AN AV WORLD 26 AV-Related Planning Opportunities 27 AV-Related Planning Challenges 32 Other Secondary Impacts of AVs 34 Conclusion 39 CHAPTER 4 POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF AVS ON THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT 40 Rights-of-Way 41 Access Management 43 Signage and Signalization 43 Interface With Bicycles and Pedestrians 45 Parking6 4 Redevelopment Opportunities 49 New Design Paradigms 51 Conclusion 51 CHAPTER 5 CONSIDERATIONS FOR POLICY MAKING AND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 52 Addressing Planning Opportunities and Challenges 53 Transitioning to an AV-Dominated System 67 Addressing AV in Community Planning Processes 70 Conclusion 71 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION: THE TRANSFORMATIVE IMPACTS OF AVS 72 REFERENCES 77 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 84 PLANNING FOR AUTONOMOUS MOBILITY PAS 592, INFOGRAPHIC AVs: Coming to a community near you A future with autonomous vehicles (AVs) is closer than you may think. PAS Report 592, Planning for Autonomous Mobility, will help you prepare for the implications and changes. THE FUTURE IS HERE BIG CHANGES MORE PLANNING IS NEEDED The earliest year an 1 shared AV policies 2020 automaker projects they will have a fully AV in action autonomous car Of the 500 largest US cities, available for how many of them have the public could replace AV policies? between 9 and 11 privately-owned vehicles. % 43 2040 or more: expected reduction rate in vehicles Estimated privately owned year when % 50 of cars will be AVs Parking, automotive uses, transit, ■ No AV policy: 95% biking, and ■ AV in the comprehensive walking will plan: 3% all be affected by this shift ■ AV ordinance: 2% on our roads. Source: Riggs, Steins, and Chavan 2018 2 AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATION www.planning.org PLANNING FOR AUTONOMOUS MOBILITY PAS 592, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PAS Report 592, Planning for Autonomous Mobility, serves as a call to action for professional planners, especially those working in the public sector in the transportation and land-use arenas. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will transform the built environment in the coming decades, and communities must begin planning for AVs now to ensure that this new technol- ogy is harnessed in beneficial ways. The primary goals of this PAS Report are to (1) provide planners and policy makers with the foundational knowledge necessary to anticipate potential impacts of AVs on communities, and (2) support and spur development of policy solutions and infrastructure investments that ensure attractive, people-friendly, equitable, and safe urban environments. This PAS Report explores the many benefits that AVs However, this transformative potential does not come may provide, but also looks at the challenges that AVs will solely from AV technology. The convergence of technological bring to communities. The many potential impacts of AVs in- advances with the rise of the shared economy and ride-sharing clude the following: services like Lyft and Uber could transform the predominant • altering the design of rights-of-way mobility paradigm from privately owned to shared vehicles. A • changing access management practices transition to shared mobility would have significant implica- • influencing the form and function of traffic signage tions for the size of the vehicle fleet, traffic congestion, parking, and signalization and urban design. Ultimately, shared AVs could lead to a much • bringing massive changes to pedestrian and bicycle smaller vehicle fleet as each vehicle completes more trips. networks The timeline for AVs’ arrival will help determine how • reducing the demand and altering the design and planners need to respond, but predicting AV adoption rates location of parking is a difficult task. The technology is advancing rapidly and • creating redevelopment opportunities in urban and several companies anticipate having AVs available for sale in suburban locales the early 2020s. The novelty and convenience of autonomous driving could speed adoption, and highly, if not fully, autono- It is imperative for planners to begin considering how
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