FORECASTING AMERICANS’ LONG-TERM ADOPTION OF CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES 1 Prateek Bansal 2 Graduate Research Assistant 3 Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering 4 The University of Texas at Austin 5
[email protected] 6 Phone: 512-293-1802 7 Kara M. Kockelman 8 (Corresponding Author) 9 E.P. Schoch Professor in Engineering 10 Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering 11 The University of Texas at Austin 12
[email protected] 13 14 15 The following paper is a pre-print, the final publication can be found in 16 Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 95:49-63 (2017). 17 18 19 ABSTRACT 20 Automobile enterprises, researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of 21 connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, this study proposes a new simulation- 22 based framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015 to 2045) adoption levels of CAV 23 technologies under eight different scenarios based on: 5% and 10% annual drops in technology 24 prices; 0%, 5%, and 10% annual increments in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP); and 25 changes in government regulations. This simulation was calibrated with the data obtained from a 26 survey of 2,167 Americans, in order to obtain their preferences for CAV technologies and their 27 household’s annual vehicle transaction decisions. 28 29 Results indicate that the average WTP (of respondents with a non-zero WTP) to add connectivity 30 and Level 3 and Level 4 automations are $110, $5,551, and $14,589, respectively. Long-term 31 fleet evolution suggests that the privately held light-duty vehicle fleet will have 24.8% Level 4 32 AV penetration by 2045 under an annual 5% price drop and constant WTP values.