Hydrology and Ecology FORECAST CHANGES IN RUNOFF FOR THE NEMAN RIVER BASIN A. Volchak, S. Parfomuk E-mail:
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[email protected] Brest State Technical University Moskovskaya 267, Brest, 224017, Belarus INTRODUCTION The main hydrological parameters of the river this is their main difference from natural causes. The runoff are not stable. These parameters change economic activities causing changes in quantitative constantly under the influence of the complex and qualitative parameters of water resources are variety of factors. The combination of these factors diverse and depend on the physiographic conditions can be divided into climatic and anthropogenic those of the territory, the characteristics of its water differ by the nature and consequences of impact on regime and the nature of the use (Water Resources, water resources (Water Resources, 2012). 2012). Natural causes determine spatial-temporal The climate change and the increasing of variations of water resources under the influence of anthropogenous effect on the river runoff during the the annual and secular climatic conditions. Intra- last 20-30 years are observed. Hydrological regime annual fluctuations occur constantly and for the Neman River basin is determined by the consistently. Secular variations occur slowly and natural fluctuations of meteorological elements and cover quite extensive areas. These variations are anthropogenic factors. In this case the role of the typically quasi-periodic and tend to some constant anthropogenic factors increases every year despite value. Studies show that in historical time these the economic downturn, and inadequate attention to deviations were not progressive. Periods of cooling these factors may lead to significant errors in the and warming, dry and wet alternating in time and the determination of estimated parameters (Ikonnikov et general condition of water resources and their al., 2003; Volchak, Kirvel, 2013).