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India Daily, November 19, 2010

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India Daily, November 19, 2010 INDIA DAILY November 19, 2010 India 18-Nov 1-day1-mo 3-mo Sensex 19,931 0.3 (1.0) 10.4 Nifty 5,999 0.2 (1.1) 10.8 Contents Global/Regional indices New releases Dow Jones 11,181 1.6 0.3 7.4 Aviation: Clear skies indicated Nasdaq Composite 2,514 1.6 1.4 13.5 FTSE 5,769 1.3 0.5 8.8 Change in Recommendation Nikkie 10,077 0.6 5.6 7.6 SKS Microfinance: Multiple business challenges, some positive trends, crucial indicators Hang Seng 23,625 (0.1) (0.6) 12.1 awaited KOSPI 1,934 0.3 4.1 8.6 Updates Value traded – India Dabur India: Namaste acquisition: A smart bolt-on Cash (NSE+BSE) 246 214 210 Derivatives (NSE) 2,160 1,409 1,057 Tata Chemicals: Management meeting update Deri. open interest 1,735 1,839 1,808 Telecom: October GSM net-adds - everyone joins the party Telecom: Thoughts on the CAG report and the way ahead Industrials: Capex cycle picking up definitive momentum, recent IIP data Forex/money market notwithstanding Change, basis points Cement: When it rains, it pours 18-Nov 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Rs/US$ 45.2 (15) 85 (135) 10yr govt bond, % 8.0 (4) (7) 8 Net investment (US$mn) News Round-up 16-Nov MTD CYTD ` The promoters of Patni Computer (PATNI IN) & General Atlantic have revived FIIs (4) 3,639 28,471 attempts to sell their over 60% stake in the co. after scaling down expectations of a MFs (17) 153 (282) price per share for above the current one. (ECNT) Top movers -3mo basis ` GAIL India (GAIL IN) has struck a long-term natural gas supply deal with National Change, % Fertilisers Ltd and Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertiliser Company Ltd, which have decided Best performers 18-Nov 1-day 1-mo 3-mo to convert their manufacturing plants from naphtha to gas, a more efficient IDBI IN Equity 188.3 1.0 18.0 43.6 feedstock. (FNLE) NEST IN Equity 3762.3 (3.4) 13.5 33.6 IBULL IN Equity 203.0 (6.3) 12.4 32.8 ` The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India on Thursday suggested to the Government DRRD IN Equity 1767.9 0.9 8.6 31.9 to cancel 69 of the 127 licenses given to six companies including Etisalat DB (earlier SUNP IN Equity 2289.0 (0.6) 11.8 27.8 known as Swan Telecom), Uninor (Unitech), Videocon (Datacom), Loop Telecom and Worst performers Aircel. (THBL) FTECH IN Equity 1043.4 (1.1) (9.7) (23.0) GMRI IN Equity 49.7 (0.2) (8.9) (22.2) ` National Aluminium co. (NACL IN), JSW Steel (JSTL IN) & Jaiprakash Ind. (JPA IN) have IVRC IN Equity 129.2 (2.7) (16.9) (22.1) evinced interest in setting up an alumina refinery & aluminium smelter in Kutch, HDIL IN Equity 240.1 1.5 (11.2) (17.2) Gujarat. (ECNT) SCS IN Equity 72.3 (2.8) (11.8) (15.1) ` Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) said it had received approval from US health regulator to market generic Clarinex tablets and Tiazac capsules, used in treating nasal allergies and hypertension, respectively, in the American market. (BSTD) ` M&M (MM IN) lines up 7 new vehicles that will hit the road over the next 15-18 months. (TTOI) ` Sterlite Technologies Ltd (SOTL IN) said it has tied up with Jiangsu Tongguang Communication Company Ltd to form a joint venture company in China called Jiangsu Sterlite & Tongguang Optical Fibers Co Ltd. (BSTD) ` ITC (ITC IN) said it would increase the production of biscuits in the country by up to 20% every year, as it plans to drive growth in the segment in the wake of robust demand. (BSTD) Source: ECNT= Economic Times, BSTD = Business Standard, FNLE = Financial Express, THBL = Business Line. For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. ATTRACTIVE Aviation India NOVEMBER 18, 2010 INITIATING COVERAGE BSE-30: 19,865 Clear skies indicated. The aviation sector is poised for a sustained turnaround with rising profitability after battling headwinds for three years on account of excess capacity. We believe the upturn will be backed by: (1) Rising yields as capacity additions lag demand growth in the industry and (2) improving cash flows leading to deleveraging of balance sheets. We see efficient players in the industry thriving and improving their market shares in this scenario. Strong up-cycle likely to continue for the next 2-3 years After significant capacity rationalizations in the industry in the past two years and strong passenger growth, capacity is perfectly aligned to demand currently. We expect growth in capacity (Average Seat Kilometers, ASKMs) at 11.3% CAGR in FY2010-13E to lag growth in demand (Passenger Kilometers, Pax-kms) at 13.8% CAGR in the same period, leading to strong yields (Revenue per Passenger Kilometer or RPKM), which will likely drive strong operating results in the next two years. Players that expand capacity would be the biggest beneficiaries The major players in the industry are not in a position to expand capacity till their balance sheets improve. In such a scenario, players that are able to expand capacity would be the biggest beneficiaries. We believe Spicejet and Jet Airways fit the bill as they would increase their capacities in the domestic segment at CAGRs of 20% and 9%, respectively, during FY2010-13E. Strong cash flows to deleverage the balance sheet We expect strong yields will likely lead to strong cash-flow generation that would deleverage companies’ balance sheets. This should re-rate the sector as debt concerns wane. We expect Jet to generate free cash flows of Rs55 bn in FY2011-13E, which will likely be used to repay debt in the absence of any significant capex requirements. We initiate coverage on the sector with an attractive view driven by strong market outlook We initiate coverage on the sector with an attractive view based on a strong outlook for the next 2-3 years, which will likely drive strong earnings growth. We initiate coverage on Spicejet (BUY, TP: Rs120) and Jet Airways (BUY, TP: Rs1,220). We use EBITDAR-based relative valuations to arrive at our fair value. Key risks to our estimates stem from: (1) Large increase in the crude oil price and (2) adverse geo-political developments in India (epidemic outbreaks, adverse political developments leading to social unrest etc.). Key Calls Spicejet Jet Airways Current price (Rs) 84 900 Target price (Rs) 120 1220 Upside (%) 42.9 35.6 Rating BUY BUY Market cap (Rs bn) 30.2 77.7 Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates For private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Aviation India Valuations We set a 12-month target price of Rs1,220 for Jet Airways (Jet) based on 7.5X FY2012E EBITDAR and a target price of Rs120 for Spicejet, based on 8.3X FY2012E EBITDAR. Our target prices imply upside potential of ~42% for Spicejet and ~35% for Jet Airways. We find the valuations of Jet and Spicejet reasonable at 6.7X and 6.8X FY2012E EBITDAR and 9.6X and 9.2X FY2012E EPS, respectively. We prefer EBITDAR-based valuations to evaluate aviation companies to neutralize the impact of varying fleet ownership structures. We believe the up-cycle in the Indian aviation market will likely last the next 2-3 years. The performance of stocks in this up-cycle will depend on the following factors: (1) Capacity addition, (2) operating leverage in the business model and (3) extent of deleveraging based on cash flows. Attractive valuations + high earnings growth = BUY We initiate coverage on Jet and Spicejet with a BUY rating and 12-month target prices of Rs1,220 and Rs120, based on 7.5X and 8.3X FY2012E EBITDAR. We find current valuations of aviation stocks attractive considering the strong earnings growth expected in the next two years. ` Current valuations. Jet trades at 6.7 X FY2012E EBITDAR and 9.6X FY012E EPS and Spicejet trades at 6.8X FY2012E EBITDAR and 9.2X FY2012E EPS. We find current valuations attractive given the strong earnings growth expected in the next two years. ` Strong earnings growth. Aviation is a high fixed-cost business. In an environment of rising yields, it should translate into high growth in the bottom line. We expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 56% and 30% for Jet and Spicejet, respectively, during FY2011- 13E. We use different target multiples Valuation summary for our coverage universe, FY2012E basis (Rs mn) Spicejet Jet Airways EBITDAR 10,023 38,617 EV/EBITDAR multiple (X) 8.3 7.5 EV 82,689 289,627 Rentals capitalised at 7X (41,611) (84,083) Cash/(Debt) 7,265 (100,430) Implied equity value 48,343 105,114 Value per share (Rs) 120 1,218 Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates We value Spicejet at a premium to Jet We value Spicejet at 8.3X FY2012E EBITDAR—a premium of ~10% to our 7.5X multiple for Jet on account of: ` Low-cost business model; higher sustainability of operations. Spicejet’s low-cost business model is better placed to weather adverse business cycles. Typically, during business down-cycles, the premium segment is the worst hit as companies try to reduce costs by saving on travel expenses. Demand at lower price points is more resilient as compared to the premium end. In such a scenario, the ability to offer cheaper tickets on account of the lean cost structure becomes a big competitive advantage to ensure higher occupancy.
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