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Sadbhav Engineering a CCUMULATE CMP `143 Performance Highlights Target Price `161

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Sadbhav Engineering a CCUMULATE CMP `143 Performance Highlights Target Price `161 4QFY2011 Result Update | Infrastructure April 23, 2011 Sadbhav Engineering A CCUMULATE CMP `143 Performance Highlights Target Price `161 Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % chg (yoy) 3QFY11 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 Months Net sales 1,047 457.2 128.9 476.2 119.8 Stock Info Operating profit 90.8 54.4 67.1 52.9 71.8 Sector Infrastructure Net profit 53.9 18.0 199.3 26.4 104.4 Market Cap (` cr) 2,140 Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.5 For 4QFY2011, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) posted numbers much higher than our and street expectations both on the top-line and bottom-line fronts. We are 52 Week High / Low 164/94 revising our estimates for FY2012 and FY2013, given the higher-than-expected Avg. Daily Volume 19,468 top-line performance and pressure on EBITDA margins. We believe SEL has Face Value (` ) 1 posted consistent growth over the last few quarters and is appropriately rewarded BSE Sensex 19,602 on the bourses with great outperformance over its peers. Hence, we are Nifty 5,885 recommending an Accumulate view on the stock, given the recent sharp run up in the stock price and lower growth expected going ahead. Reuters Code SADE.BO Bloomberg Code SADE@IN Outstanding quarterly performance: For 4QFY2011, SEL reported staggering 128.9% yoy top-line growth to `1,047cr (`457.2cr) vs. our estimate of `603.6cr. Ramp-up in execution of captive road BOT projects led to this stupendous growth Shareholding Pattern (%) in revenue. On the EBITDA margin front, SEL posted a decline of 320bp to 8.7% (11.9%) below our estimates of 11.5%, owing to high subcontracting, increased Promoters 47.6 contribution from the low-margin irrigation segment and change in cost MF / Banks / Indian Fls 26.7 escalation policy. Interest and depreciation cost came in line with our estimates. FII / NRIs / OCBs 22.6 On the earnings front, SEL reported stunning 199.3% yoy growth to `53.9cr Indian Public / Others 3.1 (`18.0cr), substantially higher than our expectations of `36.4cr, mainly due to higher revenue. Outlook and valuation: With the pick-up in award activity from NHAI, we are Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr optimistic on the road segment, given the quantum of opportunities lined up in Sensex 3.1 12.2 17.1 the sector. We expect the company to log a CAGR of 13.9% and 10.3% in its top Sadbhav 37.3 13.1 25.1 line and bottom line, respectively, over FY2011–13 on the back of high base created in FY2011. We believe SEL will take a breather to consolidate before the next leap. At current levels, the stock is trading at valuations of 7.1x FY2013E EPS (adjusted for BOT investments). Owing to the sharp run up in the stock price, we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a revised SOTP-based target price of `161(`171) to factor in EBITDA margin pressures. Key financials (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Net sales 1,257 2,209 2,602 2,865 % chg 17.0 75.8 17.8 10.1 Adj. net profit 53.8 119.6 126.2 145.5 % chg (28.6) 122.1 5.5 15.3 EBITDA (%) 11.0 10.2 9.8 10.4 FDEPS (`) 3.6 8.0 8.4 9.7 P/E (x) 39.7 17.9 17.0 14.7 Shailesh Kanani P/BV (x) 5.5 3.4 2.9 2.4 022-39357800 Ext: 6829 RoE (%) 14.7 23.5 18.4 17.9 [email protected] RoCE (%) 16.4 21.3 18.4 17.8 Nitin Arora EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 022-39357800 Ext: 6842 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.3 10.9 10.5 9.0 [email protected] Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on April 21, 2011 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Sadbhav Engineering | 4QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2011 performance Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % chg (yoy) 3QFY11 % chg (qoq) FY2011 FY2010 % chg Net Sales 1,046.7 457.2 128.9 476.2 119.8 2,209.2 1,256.9 75.8 Total Expenditure 955.9 402.9 137.3 423.3 125.8 1,983.4 1,119.3 77.2 Operating Profit 90.8 54.4 67.1 52.9 71.8 225.8 137.7 64.0 OPM (%) 8.7 11.9 (320)bp 11.1 (240)bp 10.2 11.0 (80)bp Interest 11.3 (1.1) - 9.7 16.9 28.4 33.1 (14.2) Depreciation 6.9 7.5 (8.3) 6.8 0.7 26.9 23.3 15.5 Non Operating Income 3.4 (5.2) - 4.3 (21.2) 5.2 16.6 (68.7) Non-recurring items - - - - - - - - Profit Before Tax 76.0 42.7 77.8 40.6 87.1 175.7 98.0 79.4 Tax 22.0 24.7 (10.8) 14.2 54.9 56.2 44.1 27.3 Reported Profit After Tax 53.9 18.0 199.3 26.4 104.4 119.6 53.8 122.1 PAT (%) 5.2 3.9 130bp 5.5 (30)bp 5.4 4.3 110bp EPS (`) 3.6 1.2 199.3 1.8 104.4 8.0 3.6 122.1 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: Actual vs. Estimates Estimates Actual Variation (%) Revenue (` cr) 604.0 1,046.7 73.3 EBITDA margin (%) 11.5 8.7 (280)bp PAT (` cr) 36.4 53.9 48.2 Source: Company, Angel Research Result above expectations For 4QFY2011, SEL reported a staggering 128.9% growth yoy on the top-line front to `1,047cr (`457.2cr) vs. our estimate of `603.6cr. Ramp-up in execution of captive road BOT projects via sub-contracting (KNR Construction and GKC Projects) on Bijapur – Hungund, Hyderabad – Yadgiri and Ranchi ring road projects led to this stupendous growth in revenue. Moreover, the pick-up in execution in the irrigation segment boosted the company’s revenue. SEL is executing its captive projects at a fast pace and the company is expecting to complete Hyderabad – Yadgiri project by May 2012. Further, Bijapur – Hungund and Dhule – Palasner projects are expected to be substantially completed in FY2012 and start generating tolls. Going ahead, SEL is banking on winning projects from NHAI, but it is currently staying away from stiff competition in the road segment. We believe winning projects would play a key role to maintain growth and act as catalyst for the stock price, although the current order book of ~`6,965cr (3.2x FY2011 revenue) provides enough revenue visibility for the next couple of years. On the toll collection front, Ahmedabad Ring Road reported a jump of 19.1% yoy for 4QFY2011 to `17.8cr (`14.9cr). For FY2011, toll collections stood at `63.4cr (`52.2cr), a yoy jump of 21.6%. Traffic growth for Ahmedabad Ring Road came in at 16.2% for FY2011. Aurangabad – Jalna witnessed healthy growth of 31.4% yoy to `6.3cr (`4.8cr) for the quarter. For FY2011, toll collections stood at `23.7cr (`12.1cr), yoy growth of 95.2%. Traffic growth for the same came in at 10.8%. April 23, 2011 2 Sadbhav Engineering | 4QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 3: Expect the execution momentum to continue Exhibit 4: Road segment – Lion’s share of overall revenue (%) 1200 128.9 140.0 100 3 10 10 11 14 16 13 120.0 90 1000 10 11 14 80 14 6 100.0 800 70 80.0 60 600 51.7 51.2 60.0 50 42.1 40.8 86 400 40 78 77 79 75 22.9 40.0 72 19.9 30 10.5 14.5 11.4 14.7 200 20.0 20 0 - 10 - FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 Road BOT Irrigation Mining Sales (Rs cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research On the EBITDA front, SEL posted a fall of 320bp for 4QFY2011 to 8.7% (11.9%), below our estimates of 11.5%, owing to high subcontracting and increased contribution from the low-margin irrigation segment (6–7%). Further, as per management, another reason for compression in margins is change in the cost escalation policy for road BOT projects. Previously, cost escalation was equally spread over a project life; but as per the new policy, only ~4% of cost escalation is passed in the first year and 17–18% in the second year and third year. SEL has kept low provision of escalation for earthwork (first year), while it has kept high provision for the second and third year, where structure and bitumen work happens – this will enable the company to have uniform margins throughout the project. However, we expect SEL’s margin to remain under pressure on account of high subcontracting and are factoring in the same for FY2012E (9.8%) and FY2013E (10.4%). On the earnings front, for 4QFY2011, SEL reported stunning 199.3% growth yoy to `53.9cr (`18.0cr), substantially higher than our expectations of `36.4cr, mainly due to higher revenue. Tax rate for FY2011 came in at 29%, owing to adjustment for excess tax provision in the earlier year. Going ahead, we are estimating EPS of `8.4 for FY2012 and `9.7 for FY2013, a more sedate growth on the bottom-line front, as we expect some consolidation before the next leap.
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