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Inside Ukraine Inside Ukraine September 25, 2014 №30 Content The Government Policy . 1 Shaky truce in Donbas . 1 Reform of MIA in Facebook . 3 Economic Situation . 5 Ukraine’s economy continues its fall . 5 NBU changes rules on FX market . 6 Russia extends trade war against Ukraine . 7 Russia set itself to destroy Ukrainian energy system . 7 Political competition . 9 Oleh Lyashko’s electoral jackpot . 9 Serhiy Tihipko is uniting big business . 10 Inside Ukraine 30 The Government Policy Despite the fact that the pro-Russian separatists conflict, but as a method to temporarily freeze it. The signed the Minsk protocol on peaceful settlement lack of public explanations from the President re- of the conflict in Donbas, they do not adhere to the garding the need to sign the Minsk protocol and to truce and continue to attack positions of ATO forc- adopt corresponding draft laws has become the main es, though these attacks are less intensive. In addi- information failure of the President’s administration. tion, they are making major efforts to provide the Some representatives of the government use the so-called republics with institutional attributes of statements on reform implementation in order to autonomy. Thus, the truce in Donbas is extremely improve pre-election positions of their political shaky. Active confrontation can be easily resumed forces. In particular, Arsen Avakov presented the if Russia gives a corresponding order to militants. concept of MIA reform, prepared in collaboration Petro Poroshenko put at stake his own rating in with civil experts. The concept contains a number order to push through the idea of his peace plan. of positive changes, but does not envisage radical However, conditions of Minsk Memorandum con- renewal of MIA staff. The fact that the government tain provisions that will be ignored by both sides of is going to be changed after election casts doubts the conflict. Thus, this document cannot be consid- on the possibility to start reform implementation in ered as a mechanism for long-term solution to the accordance with the announced strategy. Shaky truce in Donbas The problem of the Minsk protocol and presiden- at the domestic political arena suffered a complete fi- tial Donbas initiatives is not only the vagueness of asco. Petro Poroshenko tried to remedy the situation statements in these documents, but the lack of ex- and organized an interview with leading journalists planation from the President on inevitability of such on September 20, 2014. In addition, he announced a decisions due to the situ- Public full-scale press conference to be held on September ation at the front. While communication of 25. It is quite positive that the President took into ac- communication of the the President as count the experts’ criticism on establishing effective President at foreign policy regards peaceful communication with citizens, but the laws of 16 Sep- level is very effective, Pres- initiatives suffered tember and the Minsk protocol remain information ident’s information policy a complete fiasco failures of the President’s administration. Inside Ukraine 30 1 The Government Policy On September 19, 2014, representatives of the a 30-kilometer buffer safety zone should be es- OSCE, Ukraine, Russia and pro-Russian Donbas tablished. However, this condition means that the rebels have signed the Memorandum on the imple- separatists will have to withdraw all heavy weapons mentation of the Minsk protocol. Unlike the latter, from Donetsk, Luhansk and Horlivka and Ukrai- the Memorandum is more specific, but raises a num- nian artillery will have to leave Mariupol. There are ber of new questions to the Ukrainian government. some doubts that at least one of the parties is going First of all, the document specifies the area con- to fulfill this condition completely. trolled by rebels, as of September 19, not as of Sep- Retreat of the Ukrainian artillery from Mariupol tember 5, when the protocol was signed in Minsk. will be possible only after Russians’ withdrawal of The separatists have greatly expanded the territory heavy weapons from the south of Donetsk region, as under their control over the past two weeks. For in- a group of their troops near Novoazovsk is a direct stance, ATO forces retreat from Lutuhino in Luhansk threat to Ukrainian troops in Mariupol. Mopping- region, shifted the front line 50 km to the north, and up the south of Donbas from heavy weapons and dozens of small settlements happened to be under all foreign armed groups can be also found among control of separatists. The main motivation was the nine points of the document signed in Minsk. menace of encirclement for Ukrainian troops. How- In addition, the Memorandum provides for im- ever, criticism is caused by the fact that ATO com- posing a ban on the use of combat aviation, includ- mand does not comment on changes to the map and ing drones, by any party, except for the OSCE. It also does not explain the need for such a step. envisages a ban on planting minefields. The OSCE Such problems could have been avoided if the representatives will control the implementation of Minsk protocol and President’s laws on Donbas status the Memorandum. The number of OSCE monitors contained a clear list of set- will be increased to 350 persons allocated to 5 sectors. tlements controlled by sep- There are no The NSDC does not comment on this, but the aratists. This red line was specific borders water lines were chosen as the borders of the terri- not drawn, and, as a result, of the area tory under control of separatists. In Luhansk region, these boundaries remain controlled by a significant part of the imaginary border runs open to speculations. separatists along the Siverskyi Donets river, and in Donetsk Similarly, after the signing of Memorandum on region — the Kalmius river. On the one hand, it September 19, ATO forces left Zhdanivka, Rozivka, makes easier to control a dividing line between the and Yunokomunarivsk arguing that the front line territories controlled by Kyiv and separatists, and needs to be aligned. Following this logic, Ukrai- does not require a large number of additional en- nian troops are likely to leave Debaltseve, which gineering structures. On the other hand, it evokes is an important transportation hub on the border historical analogies when the countries were divid- of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and is now con- ed by rivers as a result of wars. trolled by Ukrainian forces. Throughout the period Nevertheless, hopes for a lasting peace are pre- of the so-called truce, separatists continue to inten- mature. Pro-Russian separatists continue to receive sively attack ATO forces in this town, and a win- support from Russia. In addition, separatists con- dow of opportunity for retreat is closing. The only tinue attacking ATO forces during the truce and point that gives hope that Debaltseve will remain build up their so-called republics institutionally. under control of official Kyiv is that, according to There were a number of reports about massive issu- the OSCE map (annex to the Memorandum), this ance of Russian passports, intentions to have their town is situated on the territory not controlled by own currency and to conduct election of the “head separatists. of the republic” and “parliament” on November 2, However, it is unlikely that the Memorandum 2014. It should be noted that the law on special or- will be implemented. The document stipulates that der in local self-governance in certain districts of both sides should take It is unlikely Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which is a part of back artillery and heavy that the Minsk Poroshenko’s peace plan, Separatists military equipment 15 memorandum envisages only local elec- are building up km from the contact line will be completely tion to be held on De- their “republics” as of September 19. Thus, implemented cember 7, 2014. institutionally 2 Inside Ukraine 30 The Government Policy Reform of MIA in Facebook On September 18, the Minister of Internal Af- Extremely positive idea is a separation of po- fairs Arsen Avakov presented the “concept of the litical and administrative positions at the ministry MIA reform” in social networks. The concept was level. The Minister will Separation of prepared in cooperation with experts’ public coun- carry out political func- political and cil headed by Yevhen Zakharov. This reform is one tions, while heads of administrative of the most urgent in Ukraine, as it will allow re- departments are profes- positions is a building trust to the public authorities, increasing sional employees in their positive idea the sense of security under the conditions of con- respective fields. Cur- stant Russia’s attempts to destabilize the internal rently, when the Minister is changed, all the vertical situation in Ukraine and, in comparison with other of command up to the regional units should also be reforms, requires less time for its implementation. changed. It significantly affects the efficiency of the However, the Interior Minister is included in the system and its professionalism. list of Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s “People’s Front” party. The number of police officers will be reduced That is why his desire to Announcement of from the current 376 per 100 thousand people to speed up the presentation the MIA reform as 300 police officers per 100 thousand people, i.e. by of the concept is associ- a PR move on the 20%. Such 20% reduction by 20% took place in Rus- ated with the beginning eve of elections sia as part of the police reform, but such a step did of the campaign. Even if not bring qualitative changes in police forces. It is the current Cabinet of Ministers approves this text, important to change the very principles of the func- it will not be able to further proceed with the con- tioning of law enforcement system and provide pre- cept implementation and the text will be inherited ventive measures of power misuse, but not to ma- by the next government.
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