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Major Natural and Social-Economic Consequences of Climate Change in the Permafrost Region: Predictions Based on Observations and Modeling

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Major Natural and Social-Economic Consequences of Climate Change in the Permafrost Region: Predictions Based on Observations and Modeling See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259762594 Major natural and social-economic consequences of climate change in the permafrost region: predictions based on observations and modeling. Greenpeace, Moscow, Russia, 44 p (in Russ... Book · January 2010 CITATIONS READS 11 596 10 authors, including: O. A. Anisimov Vasily Kokorev State hydrological institute, St.Petersburg, Russia University of Twente 153 PUBLICATIONS 2,726 CITATIONS 27 PUBLICATIONS 156 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Dmitry A Streletskiy Nikolay Shiklomanov George Washington University George Washington University 87 PUBLICATIONS 1,081 CITATIONS 123 PUBLICATIONS 4,694 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Evaluating critical thresholds of climate change impacting major regional environmental systems in Russia for developing adaptation strategies View project Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic (ARCTIC PIRE) View project All content following this page was uploaded by Dmitry A Streletskiy on 19 January 2014. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. Assessment Report The Main Natural and Socio-economic Consequences of Climate Change in Permafrost Areas: A Forecast Based upon a Synthesis of Observations and Modelling Editor: Anisimov О. А., Dr. Geo., State Institute for Hydrology, St.Petersburg, Russia Team of Contributors: Anisimov О. А., Dr. Geo., State Institute for Hydrology, St.Petersburg, Russia Belolutskaya M. А., Cand. Geo., State Medical University, St.Petersburg, Russia Grigor’ev M. N. Dr. Geo., Institute for permafrost Studies, Yakutsk, Russia Instanes А., Ph.D., Instanes Consulting Comlany, Bergen, Norway Kokorev V. A., St.Petersburg State University, St.Petersburg, Russia Oberman N. G., Dr. Geo. & Min., ZAO MIREKO Mining and Geology Company for Mineral Resources of the Komi Republic, Syktyvkar, Russia Reneva S. A., State Institute for Hydrology, St.Petersburg, Russia Strelchenko Y. G., St.Petersburg State University, St.Petersburg, Russia Streletsky D., University of Delaware, Newark, USA Shiklomanov N. I., Ph.D, G.Washington University, Washington, USA ISBN 978-6-94442-029-9 CONTENTS Preface .............................................................................................................................................................................4 Report’s Structure and Methodology .............................................................................................................................5 Permafrost: Facts, Definition, History of Study.............................................................................................................5 Permafrost Modelling ....................................................................................................................................................7 Contemporary Climate and Permafrost Changes .........................................................................................................8 Regional Example: the Northern part of the European part of Russia ...........................................................................9 Regional Example: Coasts of the Arctic Seas of the Eastern Siberia ............................................................................ 10 Economy of the Arctic Regions .................................................................................................................................... 11 Population of the Arctic Regions and Their Activities ................................................................................................... 11 Industrial Production and GDP Contribution ............................................................................................................... 12 Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................... 13 Contemporary Permafrost Changes and Their Impact on the Infrastructure .......................................................... 14 Forecasts: how they created? ...................................................................................................................................... 18 Main Consequences of Permafrost Thawing in Russia ..............................................................................................20 Forecasting of geocryological hazards and risks for infrastructure ......................................................................... 21 Adaptation Methods to Forecast Permafrost Changes and Practical Recommendations for Decision-Makers ........................................................................................................................ 24 Assessing the Possible Climate Impacts of Methane Emission from Permafrost Degradation in Russia ..................................................................................................................................................32 The Economic Component of the Permafrost Changes Forecast .............................................................................32 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Glossary .........................................................................................................................................................................38 Literature ........................................................................................................................................................................39 Preface Global climate change has become a topic of wide discus- To summarise, it is clear that the problem of climate change sion. 10 years have passed since the mid-1990s, when it moved has become a crucial challenge for the 21st century, largely be- outside scientific articles and discussions and became a sub- cause the world scientific community has managed to translate ject of discussions held by politicians and the mass media. We the results and conclusions of numerous academic and applied might imagine that this time period would be sufficient for the studies into language which is comprehensible to wider society, impacts of climate change on the environment, on economic businesspeople and political decision-makers. The mass me- development, on welfare and on the health and safety of the dia, public and non-governmental environmental organizations population to have been discussed thoroughly at different sci- have also played a significant role, and this interpretation would entific and political forums, and for agreement to have been have been impossible without them. reached on how to deal with the issue. The key moment which started a new era in the politics of cli- In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmen- mate change was the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. It tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was published. This was limits greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere and by the first paper which systematized the scientific view on climate 2009 had been ratified by 183 states. The Kyoto Protocol was forecasting, and assessed the consequences of warming and the first evidence that the importance of the climate change potential measures for adaptation to the oncoming changes. problem was acknowledged by the governments of these states. Each of these problems was presented in a single report vol- The Protocol was not signed by the USA or Australia, but re- ume. It was also the first time that international scientific and cently these two countries have done much to improve efficiency political organizations used their mechanisms to make an ab- of their economies by implementing new technologies which stract of this report a point of attention for politician and deci- have allowed slowing of the pace of greenhouse gas emissions. sion-makers. Since then, 19 years have passed, and periodical By doing so, they have practically demonstrated their commit- publications of such reports, as well the discussion of their re- ment to international measures for limiting warming. sults at the international scientific and political level have be- It may seem that at the end of the first decade of the 21st come commonplace. Further IPCC reports were published in century clarity about the problem of climate change and its 1995, 2001 and 2007 (http://www.ipcc.ch/). In 2007, IPCC was consequences has been achieved, global priorities set, the awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, which it shared with Al Gore. most vulnerable economic sectors and regions revealed, and The preparation of Fifth IPCC Report has been started, and in strategies for adaptation devised, as well as ways of mitigating July 2009 its authors held the first conference to discuss its the negative consequences of climate change. Under such con- contents. The report is planned to be published in 2014. It is il- ditions, the appropriateness of preparing another report focus- lustrative that in March 2009 the IPCC started to prepare a spe- ing on the Far North Regions of Russia is not obvious and, at cial report on extreme climatic events and the associated risks. least, needs some comments. What will distinguish this report One of its sections studies a problem of permafrost thawing from others published before? and the resulting hazard of infrastructure damages,
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