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Alternative Uses for Property Derivatives’ Is the Third Paper in the Series Published by PDIG

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Alternative Uses for Property Derivatives’ Is the Third Paper in the Series Published by PDIG PDIG PAPER NO. 3 February 2018 ALTERNATIVE USES FOR PR OPER TY DERI VATIVES About this paper The purpose of this paper is to examine some more topical uses of property futures in light of current market conditions and regulatory requirements. The areas covered are: 1. Synthetic vs physical real estate for yield 2. Alpha returns/market risk management 3. Beta returns 4. Enterprise risk management 5. Property futures for defined contribution pension schemes Background 2009, the market has moved almost exclusively to exchange trade futures traded by end users of the product. Over the past 25 years, property derivatives have existed in many forms. Property derivative contracts were first Eurex, the exchange on which property derivatives are launched in 1991 by the London Futures and Options traded, currently offers contracts on the following IPD UK Exchange (London FOX). Since then we have had PICs Quarterly Property indices for calendar year returns: (Barclays, 1994), total return swaps (200 4-12) and, most • All Property • West End & Midtown Office recently, property futures (Eurex, 2009 onwards). • All Industrial • Shopping Centre The structure of the property derivative market has also • All Retail • Retail Warehouse changed over time – see Figure 1. In the period 2004-12 All Office South Eastern Industrial high trade volumes were observed as banks traded over- • • the-counter (OTC) products between themselves. Since • City Office Figure 1: Comparison of Interbank and end-user trading 2005 to end-2011 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 End user Interbank 1 Compared to transactions in physical property, the costs of A property future, of course, only offers a beta return. The trading in property futures are significantly lower; round- investor does not benefit from any property-specific or trip costs in physical property of circa. 8% 1 versus 0.35% 2 asset management benefits. On this point, though, it is per annum for derivatives. In a market where real yield is worth considering: key, this gives property derivatives a significant advantage Picking the properties that will provide better than beta over physical property when used intelligently. • returns takes a lot of time and involves greater risk. By contrast, a property futures strategy can be implemented 1. Synthetic vs physical real estate quickly and has less basis risk to individual properties. A for yield beta return is better than no return! The last eight years have seen interest rates around the • Is the investment for the yield per se or because it is world fall to historically low levels and into negative expected that there will be a further fall in yields? territory in some countries including the Eurozone, Japan When managing a large portfolio of assets, the average and Switzerland. This has put considerable pressure on • return will tend towards the index return through fund managers who previously relied on fixed income diversification. products for a tangible low-risk yield. Whilst the process of ’interest rate normalisation‘ may have begun, in many • Case study 1 does not include additional costs associated countries it is unlikely that central bank rates will reach with the ownership of physical real estate, such as asset levels that would have been regarded as normal pre-Global management fees and agency fees, all of which will Financial Crisis for many years to come. reduce the IRR of physical property relative to property futures. Real estate has benefitted significantly from this low interest rate environment due to its comparatively high 2. Alpha returns/market risk yield and index-linked properties. As a result, values have soared to levels in excess of the debt-fuelled levels management observed in mid-200 7. Some in the market are now of the The term ’alpha‘ refers to the unique performance of a view that values are at a turning point but, in the absence particular asset, or portfolio, relative to the wider market. of any freely-available alternatives, it is possible that the Alpha can result from a number of factors including: real estate market will ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’, albeit begrudgingly, for at least the next 12 months. • Supply and demand for certain property within a specific geographic area. • Specific location of a particular property. Case study 1: Comparison of synthetic and physical real estate yields • Increased rent following refurbishment or other capital expenditure. Where ‘yield‘ is the key investment objective, the ability to Re-gearing under-rented properties. reduce costs can be profound. Consider the following • investment recommendation: All of the above will affect the unique returns derived from any particular property asset. “We propose to invest in a well-established industrial park inside the M25 with passing rent of £1m per ’Beta’ is the market return and what is measured and annum. Offers are sought at circa. £18.8m, which reported by MSCI in the IPD indices. Buying and selling would reflect an initial yield of 5% (allowing for property futures is therefore buying and selling beta risk. standard purchaser’s costs). We believe that the market A common concern for fund managers is the potential for can support income growth of 2% per annum. The real estate yields to rise. There is demand, therefore, for a property would therefore provide an unleveraged simple and effective way to rebalance risk. Doing this in the internal rate of return (IRR) of 6.02% over seven years.” physical real estate market is expensive, time consuming In the current market, this would be a sensible proposition. and destructive to alpha. Doing this with property futures is If one strips out the purchase costs, this deal would offer a much simpler and allows fund managers to retain all the rental yield (income return) of 5.325%, with an assumed alpha that has been generated through thoughtful stock 2% capital growth per annum coming from the rental selection and asset management initiatives within their real growth, i.e. 7.325% total return per annum over the next estate portfolios. seven years. If this performance could be replicated using property futures, the IRR would increase from 6.02% to 7.19% 3. Lower transaction costs mean that by using property futures one can also achieve greater exposure to property returns; 1 Percentage comprises purchase costs (including stamp duty land tax (SDLT)) total transaction costs for physical property in this instance and 1.25% selling costs. equal £1.504m versus £488,000 4 for the property futures. 2 0.35% covers brokerage, clearing and exchange costs. Note: This represents In addition to this, when using property futures the investor one-way costs only as it is assumed that the respective contract expires naturally. receives interest on the principal amount. 3 This assumes that one is able to purchase IPD futures at a value of 100. 4 Equates to seven annual contracts with a notional of £19,930,224 (£69,715 per contract). 2 3. Focus on beta Case study 2: Capturing alpha from refurbishment, while reducing exposure Investing in direct real estate is generally viewed as investing for alpha. Stock selection is based upon things to the sector such as sector preference and potential for rental growth, The scenario in this case study is: all of which are indicators of future alpha. However, there may be times when the level of inflows and/or outflows of • A fund manager with £2bn invested in real estate capital in a fund mean delivering market returns (beta) as a • 30% of the portfolio invested in City offices minimum is of primary concern over the short term. (10 properties) A fund manager with a new allocation to real estate has – Four properties subject to refurbishment (18 months the following principal routes to investment: until practical completion) • Direct property – Forecast return on capex is 20% • Listed vehicles • Post-Brexit, the fund manager no longer wants such a large exposure to City offices • Unlisted funds • The fund manager wants a greater exposure to • Property futures industrial and logistics Alongside direct real estate, listed vehicles (equity in The fund manager could market all 10 offices and start to particular) and unlisted funds are alpha investments. The replace them with industrial and logistics assets. very nature of being listed means that the directors, or managers of the listed vehicle, will always look to report However, selling the properties that are being refurbished superior performance to justify the price of the share or would mean that the fund would miss out on the expected unit. This kind of superior performance can only be derived 20% return on capital expenditure. With regard to these from alpha. Unlike direct real estate, listed vehicles offer four properties, a solution would be to sell ‘City Office’ much greater levels of liquidity but also suffer additional property futures and buy ‘Industrial’ property futures equal risk that comes from being listed; is a REIT stock part of an to the capital value of the properties being refurbished. equity allocation or a real estate allocation? The answer is This removes the market risk (beta risk) associated with that they are both and the value of a REIT stock can be City offices, allowing the refurbishment work to be affected by risks specific to real estate, but also risks completed and the fund to realise the return on its capex specific to equity 5.
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