2 019 PRISMVOL. 8, NO. 2 | 2019 PRISM VOL. 8, NO. 2 NO. 8, VOL. THE JOURNAL OF COMPLEX OPER ATIONS PRISM ABOUT VOL. 8, NO.2 2019 PRISM, the quarterly journal of complex operations published at National Defense University (NDU), aims to illuminate and provoke debate on whole-of-government EDITOR IN CHIEF efforts to conduct reconstruction, stabilization, counterinsurgency, and irregular Mr. Michael Miklaucic warfare operations. Since the inaugural issue of PRISM in 2010, our readership has expanded to include more than 10,000 officials, servicemen and women, and practi- tioners from across the diplomatic, defense, and development communities in more MANAGING EDITOR than 80 countries. Ms. Patricia Clough PRISM is published with support from NDU’s Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS). In 1984, Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger established INSS ASSOCIATE EDITOR within NDU as a focal point for analysis of critical national security policy and Mr. Dale Erickson defense strategy issues. Today INSS conducts research in support of academic and leadership programs at NDU; provides strategic support to the Secretary of Defense, COPY EDITOR Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, combatant commands, and armed services; Ms. Lisa Yambrick, U.S. and engages with the broader national and international security communities. Government Publishing Office Ctr. COMMUNICATIONS PRISM welcomes unsolicited manuscripts from policymakers, practitioners, and DESIGN scholars, particularly those that present emerging thought, best practices, or train- Ms. Jamie Harvey, ing and education innovations. Publication threshold for articles and critiques varies U.S. Government Publishing Office but is largely determined by topical relevance, continuing education for national and international security professionals, scholarly standards of argumentation, quality of EDITORIAL BOARD writing, and readability. To help achieve threshold, authors are strongly encouraged Dr. Gordon Adams to recommend clear solutions or to arm the reader with actionable knowledge. Dr. Pauline Baker Our review process can last several months. The PRISM editorial staff will contact authors during that timeframe accepting or regretfully rejecting the submis- Ambassador Rick Barton sion. If the staff is unable to publish a submission within four months of acceptance, Dr. Alain Bauer PRISM will revert publication rights to the author so that they may explore other Dr. Hans Binnendijk publication options. ADM Dennis Blair, USN (ret.) Constructive comments and contributions are important to PRISM. We also welcome Letters to the Editor that are exclusive to PRISM—we do not publish open Ambassador James Dobbins letters. The PRISM editorial staff will contact authors within two months of submis- Dr. Francis Fukuyama sion if they accept the letter for publication. Ambassador Marc Grossman As of late 2018, PRISM transitioned to ScholarOne for online submissions and Ambassador John Herbst manuscript tracking. Please submit your original contributions to <https://mc04. manuscriptcentral.com/prism>. ScholarOne will prompt authors to adhere to our sub- Dr. Laura Junor (ex officio) mission guidelines for formatting content and visual aids, which remain unchanged. Dr. David Kilcullen Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein DISCLAIMER Dr. Roger B. Myerson This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) edition Dr. Moisés Naím of PRISM. Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or Ambassador Thomas Pickering extracted without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be Dr. William Reno acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within Lt. Gen. John F. Sattler, USMC (ret.) are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of DOD or any Dr. James A. Schear other agency of the Federal Government, or any other organization associated with Dr. Joanna Spear this publication. ADM James Stavridis, USN (ret.) Dr. Ruth Wedgwood ISSN 2157-0663 FEATURES 2 Taking Responsibility in a Dangerous World VOL. 8, NO. 2 By Federica Mogherini 10 The Business of Terrorism By Stanley McChrystal and Ellen Chapin PRISM 26 Afghanistan Reconstruction: Lessons from the Long War By John F. Sopko 40 The Meaning of Setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan By Carter Malkasian 54 Pathologies of Centralized State-Building By Jennifer Murtazashvili 68 Saving Democracy Abroad: The Case for Revitalizing U.S. Rule of Law Assistance By Robert M. Perito and Donald J. Planty 82 Countering Hybrid Warfare: So What for the Future Joint Force? By Sean Monaghan www.ndu.edu 100 On the “Gerasimov Doctrine”: Why the West Fails to Beat Russia to the Punch By Ofer Fridman 114 Artificial Intelligence on the Battlefield: Implications for Deterrence and Surprise By Zachary Davis 132 The Digital Maginot Line: Autonomous Warfare and Strategic Incoherence By Michael P. Ferguson INTERVIEWS 146 “Total Defense”—an Interview with Sweden’s Minister of Defense, Peter Hultqvist BOOK REVIEWS 151 Diplomatic Security: A Comparitive Analysis Reviewed by Gregory Starr 153 Temperature Rising: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Wars in the Middle East Reviewed by Gawdat Bahgat 2019 In November 2012, EU Naval Force flagship ITS SanGiusto captures suspected pirates as part of Operation Atalanta—also known as European Union Naval Force Somalia (EU-NAVFOR-ATALANTA)—part of a larger global action by the EU to prevent and combat acts of piracy off the coast of Somalia. (EU-NAVFOR-ATALANTA) 2 | FEATURES PRISM 8, NO. 2 Taking Responsibility in a Dangerous World Europe’s Evolving Transatlantic Partnership By Federica Mogherini or as long as I can remember, I have heard my U.S. colleagues ask we Europeans to take greater responsibility for European and Transatlantic security. I have always agreed with that sentiment. Seventy five years ago, hundreds of thousands of Americans sacrificed their Flives to liberate Europe from Nazism and Fascism. The United States contributed to rebuilding our devastated continent and to preserving freedom in Europe after the war. Such debt is impossible to repay. But after decades of American support to Europe, the transatlantic partnership has become more mature. Europe is now a global power, one of the three largest global economies, the biggest market in the world, and we invest in development aid at twice the level of the United States, and more than the rest of the world combined. Taken together, the 28 Member States of the European Union have a defense budget second only to that of the United States. We feel the responsibility that comes with greater strength. When America came under attack on 9/11, we immediately showed our full solidarity: for the first time in history, NATO’s collective defense clause was activated in support of the United States. And in recent years we Europeans have taken unprecedented steps to fulfill our responsibility and increase our contribution to global security. Since the beginning of this century, our security environment has continued to change at an astounding pace. The principle that borders should never be changed by military force has been vio- lated by Russia on our very continent: once again, an armed conflict is taking place on European soil. Instability has spread around our region, from Syria to Yemen, from Libya to the Sahel. Cyberattacks have become more and more common, and represent a risk to our power grids as well as to our bank accounts. In this complex and dangerous world, European and American security are connected. Any nuclear proliferation crisis poses a threat that is global by definition. Tension along global trade routes—for instance around the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, or in the South China Sea—affect both our economies. The crisis in Venezuela is having a direct impact on the lives of one million European citizens, even though it is occurring in another hemisphere. The European Union and the United States share the same interest in peace and security—in the Balkans as well as in Afghanistan An Italian politician, Ms. Federica Mogherini is Vice President of the European Commission and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. PRISM 8, NO. 2 FEATURES | 3 MOGHERINI or the Korean peninsula. We share the same interest Mars, Europeans are from Venus”—does not in discussing China’s role in global trade. And when correspond to a changing reality. The European human rights are violated in any corner of the world, Union is not any longer a mere civilian power. We it is an attack against the principles upon which both aspire to be a global security provider, in coopera- of our democracies are built. tion and complementarity with our partners, and The transatlantic partnership is indeed evolv- we have taken substantial steps to strengthen our ing, and some analysts describe a growing rift across military capabilities. the ocean. Yet transatlantic cooperation today is Three years ago, I presented a Global Strategy more important than ever. Beyond any disagree- for the European Union’s foreign and security ment we might have, European and American policy, which stated explicitly that Europe should interests very often coincide. On most foreign policy take greater responsibility for European and global issues—from Ukraine to Syria, from Africa’s secu- security. The only way to do so was to harness the rity to North Korea—transatlantic cooperation is in untapped potential of European cooperation on great shape. During the five-year term of the current defense matters. The Strategy has triggered an EU leadership, the European Union and NATO unprecedented set of new cooperative initiatives have signed two historic Joint Declarations, which to make Europe stronger and safer. We have set a have opened a whole new phase in our partnership. new “level of ambition” for our European security Our two organizations share 22 Members and the and defense policy, and this is good news for our same set of values: our mandates are different but— American friends. Europe is finally taking greater most importantly—they are complementary.