Agnar Johansen Project Uncertainty Management
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ISBN 978-82-326-1026-6(printed ISSN 1503-8181 ISSN Doctoral theses at NTNU, 2015:185 NTNU, at theses Doctoral Johansen Agnar NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology Thesis for the Doctor Philosophiae Degree Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology Department of Production and Doctoral thesis Quality Engineering from a project jointperspective aproject from managementseen uncertainty Practical – Opportunities’ The‘Lost Approach Management: ANew Uncertainty Project Agnar Johansen thesesatNTNU,2015:185 Doctoral Agnar Johansen Project Uncertainty Management: A New Approach – The ‘Lost Opportunities’ Practical uncertainty management seen from a project joint perspective Thesis for the Doctor Philosophiae Degree Trondheim, June 2015 Norwegian University of Science and Technology Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology Department of Production and Quality Engineering NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology Thesis for the degree of Philosophiae Doctor Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology Department of Production and Quality Engineering © Agnar Johansen ISBN 978-82-326-1026-6 (printed ver.) ISBN 978-82-326-1027-3 (electronic ver.) ISSN 1503-8181 Doctoral theses at NTNU, 2015:185 Printed by NTNU Grafisk senter Preface My starting point as a researcher was within the disciplines of production engineering and project management. I started my career as a junior researcher at SINTEF in 1995, and worked as project management consultant from 1999 to 2003. In the beginning, my research focused on standardization of project management practices and project start-up. Over the years, I have worked and published research on various project management topics, including as stakeholder analysis and management, cost estimation, time planning, public private partnership (PPP) contracts, uncertainty analysis, uncertainty management, and communication and learning in projects. My research on uncertainty analysis and on uncertainty management started in 2004, when I contributed to two research projects: 1. ‘Uncertainty as a Learning Arena’ (Usikkerhetsanalyser som læringsarena), a project initiated by the Norwegian Centre for Project Management (Norsk Senter for Prosjektledelse, NSP), in which we developed the first textbook on the Norwegian quality assurance system 2. ‘Uncertainty analysis – Methodology’ Usikkerhetsanalyse – Metoder), a project associated with the Concept programme (Concept Report No. 12, co-authored by (Austeng, Midtbø, Jordanger, Magnussen, & Torp), in which I worked on a literature review of uncertainty management process and techniques. At that time, I worked as a researcher manager for the Norwegian Centre for Project Management, and one of my responsibilities was for the annual research conference, at which new project ideas are discussed and developed. In the 2005 conference, two ideas were launched by our industry partners, and both had uncertainty as their focus area. It was decided that these ideas should be put together in one research proposal. In June 2006, the Norwegian Centre for Project Management together with the Research Council of Norway started a research and development project in cooperation with six companies and three academic partners. This project was titled ‘Practical Uncertainty Management in a Project Owner Perspective’ (Praktisk styring av usikkerhet i et eierperspektiv, abbreviated to PUS). I started as a senior researcher in the PUS project in 2006, and was appointed as the project manager in 2007. This position gave me the time and opportunity to work more or less full-time on the topic of uncertainty management, together with some of the Norway’s leading companies, researchers, and consultants for a five-year period. The PUS project gave me the opportunity to focus my research on practical uncertainty management, and it shaped and formalized the direction of my research agenda. The PUS project also provided the practical cases as well as a community of practitioners and researchers that were interested in the same problem: How can we manage uncertainty in our projects in a practical way? i Acknowledgements I would like to thank the six companies, the Research Council of Norway, and the board of the Norwegian Centre for Project Management for their support and the courage shown when we proposed a four-and-a-half year research project on practical uncertainty management – the PUS project. I am deeply grateful for the support from the board and the contact persons from the seven companies that gave me access to their projects, managers, and the cases that have been important for the development of this thesis and for my understanding of the topic that I have been researching. In this regard, I sincerely thank the leader of the board Thor Inge Johansen (Statoil) and Mads Hembre (Statoil). I also thank Hilde Nordskogen, Jens Petter Lund, Asbjørn Hansen (Statsbygg and OPAK) and Ragnhild Aalstad (Statsbygg), Kittill Skogen (Telenor), Erik Guldhav and Erik Rønning (Norwegian Defence Logistics Organisation) Eirik Øvstedahl and Geir Enersen (Norwegian Public Roads Administration, NPRA), Runar Gravdal (Jernbaneverket, the Norwegian state railway administration), and Elisabeth Svendsen (Terramar) for their guidance and support during and after the PUS project. I also wish to thank the Department of Production and Quality Engineering (NTNU) and SINTEF Technology and Society for support during 2012 and 2013, when most of the work for this thesis was carried out. Without their financial support, the thesis would not have been completed. I sincerely thank all of my co-authors: Researcher Anandasivakumar Ekambaram (SINTEF), Researcher Andreas Økland (SINTEF), Associate Professor Olav Torp (NTNU), Researcher Linda Hald (SINTEF), Bettina Sandvin (Norwegian Public Roads Administration), Hans Petter Krane (NTNU and Rambøll), Petter Eik Andresen (Norwegian Defence Logistics Organisation), Researcher Siri Bøe Halvorsen (SINTEF), Researcher Trygve Steiro (NTNU and Safetec), Amin Haddadi (NTNU and Multiconsult), Senior Researcher Jan Alexander Langlo (SINTEF), Ragnhild Aalstad (Statsbygg), Researcher Ole Jermstad (SINTEF and Reinertsen), and Professor Asbjørn Rolstadås and Professor Nils Olsson (Department of Production and Quality Engineering, NTNU). All have all contributed to my research, and our discussions have made my research for this thesis more interesting and fun, and the results more interesting and more valid. There are many colleagues that have given me comments and feedback on research ideas, early versions of papers, and early versions of this thesis, and I would like to mention five colleagues in particular: Researcher Anandasivakumar Ekambaram (SINTEF), Professor Bjørn Andersen (Department of Production and Quality Engineering, NTNU), Professor Nils Olsson (Department of Production and Quality Engineering, NTNU), Senior Researcher Jan Alexander Langlo (SINTEF), and Professor Asbjørn Rolstadås (Department of Production and Quality Engineering, NTNU). Without their support and feedback on the later versions of the thesis and their inspiring comments during the final phase of my work, this thesis would never have been accomplished. I am most grateful for all the time they invested. I sincerely thank Professor Bjørn Andersen, who was my lineleader at SINTEF when I started working on this thesis. Without his support and willingness to let me focus on this work, the journey would never been started. I have learned that I work in a rather unique place with colleagues that always will do their best to support a fellow colleague. I will endeavour to live up to the standards that they have set and ii hopefully instil them in some of my other colleagues and future master’s students and doctoral students. Last, but not least, I thank my parents and family who taught me that with hard work anything is possible, and my wife Anne and my daughter Dina who have supported me in a busy period of our lives and let me ‘play with research’ for so many years. Trondheim, February 2015 Agnar Johansen iii Abstract The thesis examines uncertainty management in a single-project environment. In addition to the main chapters, Appendix I contains the published papers that this thesis is built upon, Appendix II contains the bibliography from the project ‘Practical Uncertainty Management in a Norwegian Project Owner’s Perspective’ (‘The PUS project’), and Appendix III lists the references. In the early 2000s, uncertainty analysis became more or less mandatory for large projects in Norway. However, there was no clear evidence that the companies and projects subsequently used the results of the analyses when managing uncertainty. A lot of projects experienced that although they had done an uncertainty analysis they could not use the results in their uncertainty management process. Some of the relevant questions worth addressing are: Who should be involved in the uncertainty management process? What type of uncertainty or risks should be addressed in the process? Who should be responsible for following up the uncertainty on more strategic and tactical levels? Who ‘owns’ the process and who should be responsible for managing it? What types of practical tools are needed and how should the uncertainty management process be organized? Projects have traditionally strived towards predictability and to keep all critical factors under control. However, for large and complex projects, such predictability