Qhomicides in Uruguay, While Still

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Tuesday, April 9, 2019

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Can Uruguay Get Judge Blocks U.S. Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Cargill Policy Keeping Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, its Rising Homicide Asylum Seekers JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Mexico Marlene Fernández Corporate Vice President for Rate Under Control? A U.S. federal judge blocked the Government Relations, Trump administration’s policy of Arcos Dorados keeping asylum seekers in Mexico Peter Hakim while their cases make their way President Emeritus, through immigration courts in the Inter-American Dialogue United States. Donna Hrinak Page 2 President, Boeing Latin America Jon Huenemann Retired VP, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, POLITICAL Philip Morris International James R. Jones Colombia’s Chairman, Monarch Global Strategies Lower House Craig A. Kelly Rejects Peace Director, Americas International Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil Senator Jorge Larrañaga, a member of Uruguay’s opposition National Party, has led the drive Deal Changes for a referendum for tougher policies against crime. // File Photo: Facebook site of Jorge John Maisto Larrañaga. The lower house of Colombia’s Director, U.S. Education Congress rejected President Iván Finance Group Homicides in Uruguay, while still relatively low among Latin Duque’s proposed changes to the Nicolás Mariscal tribunal tasked with handling war Chairman, American countries, increased by 45.8 percent in 2018 as Grupo Marhnos compared to a year earlier, according to Interior Ministry crimes. Page 2 Thomas F. McLarty III Q figures. What’s behind the jump in the homicide rate? Will Chairman, McLarty Associates security play a big role in Uruguay’s upcoming presidential election in ECONOMIC Carlos Paz-Soldan October, or are other issues more important to voters? To what extent Partner, DTB Associates, LLP could the rise in the murder rates affect the ruling Broad Front Party’s Mexico Plans to Beatrice Rangel chances of re-election? Begin Taxing Director, AMLA Consulting LLC Digital Platforms Jaana Remes Caio Pizetta Torres, political risk analyst for Brazil and Mexico plans to tax digital busi- Partner, nesses, such as Netflix, beginning the Southern Cone at Control Risks’ global risks analysis McKinsey Global Institute in its budget plan next year, said Ernesto Revilla practice in São Paulo: “The reasons behind this upward Deputy Finance Minister Arturo Head of Latin American Economics, Citi trend are manifold and a source of heated political debate as Herrera. A Page 2 Gustavo Roosen parties seek to capitalize on the issue, which will surely play a central role Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos in the October general elections. While the ruling Broad Front (FA) says Andrés Rozental turf wars between gangs are the main culprit, the opposition accuses the President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior government of insisting on inadequate security policies and introducing Policy Advisor, Chatham House lenient legislation such as the new Code of Criminal Procedure, which Shelly Shetty incentivizes prosecutors to plea bargain with criminals. As a matter Head of Sovereign Ratings, Latin America, Fitch of fact, they are both correct. The new code is likely to have increased Roberto Sifon-Arevalo recidivism without addressing growing numbers of unsolved crimes, Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, whereas gangs are increasingly making their presence felt in low-income Standard & Poor’s areas. Polls show that voters rank violence as their main concern ahead of the presidential election, and they largely blame the FA and President Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 promising to address the issue, for the deterioration of the security environment. As a result, the National Party Herrera // File Photo: Mexican Government. Continued on page 3

POLITICAL NEWS for migrants. So unfair to the U.S. OUT OF CON- NEWS BRIEFS TROL!” The flow of Central American migrants Judge Blocks Policy attempting to cross the southern U.S. border Mexico to Begin Taxing has reached decade-long highs, maddening Digital Platforms: Deputy Keeping U.S. Asylum Trump. The White House recently rescinded the nomination of Ronald Vitiello to lead U.S. Im- Finance Minister Seekers in Mexico migration and Customs Enforcement, a move Mexico will aim to tax digital platforms such as that preceded Nielsen’s resignation on Sunday, Netflix in its budget plan for next year, Deputy A U.S. federal judge on Monday blocked a The Washington Post reported. The Justice Finance Minister Arturo Herrera said Monday, Trump administration policy that has kept Department declined to comment Monday on adding that the country’s total tax take was too migrants seeking asylum in Mexico while the judge’s decision. The Trump administration low relative to those of other Latin American their cases are processed in U.S. immigration can still appeal the ruling to the U.S. Court of countries, Reuters reported. Herrera recog- courts, The Washington Post reported. In the Appeals for the 9th Circuit. The American Civil nized there is no broad consensus on how to ruling, District Judge Richard Seeborg in San Liberties Union was among the groups that tax digital services but said the government Francisco halted enforcement of the Migrant filed the lawsuit against the policy. It called the should be able to levy “interim” taxes on such Protection Protocols policy just days after ruling a “very important decision” on the White companies while an international agreement is House’s “unprecedented” attempt to keep established. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A in asylum seekers out of the United States. the March 27 issue of the Advisor.] The ruling blocks the Trump administration Colombia’s Lower from sending any Trump Administration future asylum seekers House Rejects Peace Ends Deal to Bring Cuban back to Mexico. Accord Changes Baseball Players to U.S. The Trump administration has blocked Major The lower house of Colombia’s Congress on League Baseball, or MLB, from contracting Homeland Security Secretary Kristjen Nielsen, Monday rejected President Iván Duque’s pro- players directly from Cuba to play profession- who resigned on Sunday, vowed to strengthen posed changes to the tribunal tasked with han- ally in the United States, officials said Monday, it. The White House implemented the policy dling war crimes as part of the country’s peace invalidating a historic deal struck last Decem- in January at the San Ysidro port of entry in accord with the former Revolutionary Armed ber between the MLB and Cuba, The Wall Street California and then expanded it to the border Forces of Colombia, or FARC, rebels, El Tiempo Journal reported. The MLB claims that creating crossings at Calexico, Calif., and El Paso. a legal path for Cuban players to join the U.S. Under the program, hundreds of migrants have league provides a safer alternative for them to been sent back to Mexico after declaring their arrive in the United States without resorting to desire to seek asylum in the United States. human traffickers. In the decision, the judge ruled in favor of 11 plaintiffs—11 migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras—and ordered that they be allowed to enter the United States within Chile’s Piñera Wants ‘More two days, USA Today reported. The ruling, Ambitious’ Commitments which takes effect on Friday, also prevents Duque // File Photo: Colombian Government. the Trump administration from sending any on Climate Change asylum seekers back to Mexico in the future. reported. Duque had asked Congress to review Chile will seek “more ambitious” commitments The policy was not properly put into effect and six parts of the law that regulates the Special to mitigate climate change at the United Na- violates U.S. law and the 1951 United Nations Jurisdiction for Peace, or JEP, court, which was tions COP-25 conference, President Sebastián Convention on Refugees, to which the United created to investigate, hear prosecutions and Piñera said Monday, Reuters reported. The States is a signatory. In Mexican border towns, sentence those responsible for massacres, 2015 Paris agreement, which aims to keep asylum seekers “face undue risk to their lives sexual violence and other crimes during the temperature increases this century below 2 and freedom,” Seeborg wrote. Trump reacted 50-year war between the guerrillas and the degrees Celsius, is not enough to “prevent the to Seeborg’s ruling by tweeting, “A 9th Circuit government, Reuters reported. The president world from continuing on a path that could end Judge just ruled that Mexico is too dangerous asked for better clarification on extradition in tragedy,” the president added. Chile is sched- uled to host the conference in December.

COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Tuesday, April 9, 2019 rules, FARC repayment of conflict victims and FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 to toughen sentencing, as well as to exclude sexual crimes from the court’s responsibility. (PN), the main opposition party, will continue who got caught would not be sent to prison. Duque has long argued that the peace deal is to press on the topic, a strategy that has Unsurprisingly, more than 70 percent of too lenient toward the FARC. Lawmakers reject- yielded substantive growth in the polls so Uruguayans consider insecurity the country’s ed the proposal, with 110 voting against the far. Luis Lacalle Pou and Jorge Larrañaga, main problem, and the issue is already at modifications and only 44 in support. Duque’s the leading contenders for PN’s nomination, the center of the 2019 presidential election proposals had been widely expected to be are advocating for a strict law-and-order campaign. In fact, Uruguayans will be voting defeated because the peace accord is already approach to combat crime, which will get enshrined in the country’s Constitution, and traction among voters. With little to brag changes to it would require a two-thirds major- about when it comes to security policies, the Undoubtedly, insecuri- ity in the legislature, Reuters reported. Duque’s FA will find itself on the defensive, giving the ty has turned into the coalition has less than half of the seats in opposition its best opportunity to win back toughest nut to the lower house and a slight majority in the power.” crack for the ruling Senate. It is the latest congressional defeat Broad Front Party for the Colombian president, who took office in Diego Sanjurjo, lecturer and and for its chances August, following a severely diluted tax reform postdoctoral fellow at the of re-election.” bill last year, the scrapping of proposed justice Institute of Political Science at — Diego Sanjurjo legislation and a pension reform delayed until A Universidad de la República in next year. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A in the Montevideo: “Since records began, Uruguay March 29 issue of the Advisor.] has been part of a select group of countries the same day on a referendum on a number in Latin America with relatively low levels of security measures, including on the pos- of crime. This has changed in recent years, sibility of instituting life imprisonment and BUSINESS NEWS however, as homicide rates increased from the creation of a special military unit that 5.9 murders per 100,000 population in could collaborate in the fight against crime, 2011 to the current record of 11.8 murders among others. Undoubtedly, insecurity has Switzerland Returns per 100,000 population in 2018. This is turned into the toughest nut to crack for the to Brazil $365 Mn the fourth-highest in South America, since ruling Broad Front Party and for its chances only Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil have of re-election.” Seized in Probes higher killing rates. There are three probable causes behind such a sharp increase. The Charles H. Blake, professor Swiss prosecutors today said they have re- first is the rise of property crime and illicit of political science at James turned some 365 million francs ($365 million) markets, which have been growing steadily Madison University’s School of to Brazil of the funds seized during investi- in the country since the 1990s. The second A Public & International Affairs: gations into Brazilian construction company is closely related and is the progressive “During the Broad Front’s three consecutive establishment of organized crime and drug presidencies since 2004, a prolonged eco- trafficking groups. Lastly, a much more nomic expansion has been accompanied by lenient penal code was approved at the end a rising robbery rate and, now, by a jump in of 2017 and spread the idea that criminals the homicide rate. The increase in property Continued on page 4

Dodge signed a declaration “reaffirming their francs have been seized in Switzerland, the AP commitment to continue and intensify their co- reported. Alleged crimes include aggravated operation” at a meeting on Monday in Brasília, money laundering and bribery of foreign public according to a statement from Lauber’s office. officials. In Brazil, more than 130 businessmen Dodge // File Photo: Brazilian Government. Swiss authorities are conducting some 70 and politicians have been convicted as part of Odebrecht and state oil company Petrobras, related criminal investigations, two of which the massive “Lava Jato,” or “Car Wash,” inves- the Associated Press reported. Approximately are in connection to Swiss financial groups, tigation into money laundering at Petrobras 700 million francs remain frozen in the Euro- the statement said. Officials say the case is and Odebrecht, including former President Luiz pean country. Swiss Attorney General Michael among the most complex they have ever han- Inácio Lula da Silva, who is serving a 12-year Lauber and Brazilian prosecutor general Raquel dled and that assets worth about 700 million prison sentence, Reuters reported.

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2019 crime often had been seen as correlated ization in Uruguay than in other countries with the economic expansion. However, in the region: 23.5 percent of interviewees Erik Brand opposition politicians have attributed the in Uruguay reported being victims of crime Publisher [email protected] more recent increase in the homicide rate to during the last year, whereas in Colombia, penal code reforms enacted in 2017. Jorge the number was 18.6 percent, and in Jamai- Gene Kuleta Editor Larrañaga, a senator from the center-right ca it was 11 percent. These results do not [email protected] National Party, has promoted an initiative correspond with data, for example, from the Anastasia Chacón González that calls for a handful of sterner anti-crime United Nations Development Bank, which Reporter measures. That petition drive gathered shows Uruguay as one of the countries in the [email protected] enough signatures to place the plebiscite region with the lowest crime rates. Moreover, on the 2019 ballot. In recent public opinion

polls, half or more of respondents have Michael Shifter, President labeled crime as the most important Several opposition Genaro Arriagada, Nonresident Senior Fellow problem in Uruguay. In the Latinobarómetro Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow poll conducted in mid-2018, that percentage candidates are focusing their campaigns Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects was 44 percent. Although the Broad Front Michael Camilleri, Director, Peter D. Bell Rule of Law as the incumbent government is vulnerable on insecurity...” Program to criticism on crime, nearly 40 percent of — Rosario Queirolo Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow Uruguayans said the crime was the most Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program important problem in the years 2013-2014, Peter Hakim, President Emeritus and yet the Broad Front still won the 2014 Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow elections handily. The Broad Front will run insecurity perception has also increased, Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow again in 2019 on its economic successes. and it is now considered the most important Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and Latin America Program While security is an important issue, the problem among Uruguayans. As a result, the Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration, more troubling indicator for the Broad Front insecurity problem is already one of the main Remittances & Development is that President Tabaré Vázquez’s approval topics in the 2019 election campaign. Sever- Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow ratings have stayed between 40 percent and al opposition candidates are focusing their Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration 50 percent throughout his second presiden- campaigns on insecurity, and one of them, Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program cy—in contrast to the two prior Broad Front Jorge Larrañaga, who is running to be the Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development and presidencies, which enjoyed approval ratings nominee for Partido Nacional, has presented External Relations between 60 percent and 70 percent. Swing signatures to the Electoral Court to have a Latin America Advisor is published every voters may be tiring of the Broad Front’s long plebiscite for a constitutional reform related business day, except for major U.S. holidays, series of electoral successes.” to public safety. On the other side, the gov- by the Inter-American Dialogue at 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 ernment has been focusing on the combat Washington, DC 20005 Rosario Queirolo, associate of drug trafficking, housing usurpation and www.thedialogue.org professor and director of the crime organization. These actions, which the ISSN 2163-7962 Department of Social and Po- Ministry of Interior has led, have been well Subscription inquiries are welcomed at A litical Sciences at the Catholic received by the population as a sign of state [email protected] University of Uruguay: “Although the Uru- capacity. In conclusion, both sides are mak- guayan homicide rate is low in comparison ing public security central for this coming The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily with other Latin American countries, it has election. It is still soon to know if security represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole been increasing in past years. There are no issues will have more impact on voting deci- view of each commentator and does not necessarily represent the views of their respective employers or firms. clear explanations for the jump in the homi- sions than the traditional economic ones.” The information in this report has been obtained from cide rate, which has also been accompanied reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have by an increase in the crime rate. Data from The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A any questions relating to the contents of this publication, the Americas Barometer 2016-2017 survey section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a show a higher percentage of crime victim- at [email protected]. retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permis- sion from the publisher.