TSP TIPS I MUSINGS ON MAIDS I MORE RETIREE REFLECTIONS

$3.50 / APRIL 2006 OREIGN ERVICE FJ O U R N A L S THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS

POISED TO FLOURISH? Despite Real Gains, Instability Haunts Latin America

CONTENTS April 2006 Volume 83, No. 4

F OCUS ON L A TIN A MERICA F EATURES

20 / PRESSURE GROWS FOR CHANGE IN THE AMERICAS THE POLITICS OF HAVING A MAID / 61 The left’s recent advances in the region come even The decision to hire household help when posted as most of the hemisphere’s economies are performing overseas may seem a no-brainer. But for many FSOs, better than they have in years. it is quite complex. By George Gedda By Alexis Ludwig

27 / BRAZIL: LATIN AMERICA’S SUPERPOWER? LIFE AFTER THE FS: The U.S. and Brazil are fated to work for RETIREES HAVE THE LAST WORD / 66 accommodation, certainly in the hemisphere and More stories and advice about retirement from perhaps in the broader international sphere. the Foreign Service. By Mark Lore By Susan Maitra

33 / COLOMBIA IS COMPLICATED Colombians don’t find it easy to define what went wrong C OLUMNS D EPARTMENTS in their country, or how America can help them rectify it. PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 LETTERS / 6 By Phillip McLean The Pay-for-Performance/ CYBERNOTES / 11 HE AND EXICO HAT S EXT OCP Trade-Off: Poisoned 39 / T U.S. M : W ’ N ? MARKETPLACE / 12 Whoever he is, the next Mexican president will Chalice or Win-Win? FSJ GUIDE TO EXTENDED have a keen appreciation of the complexity of By J. Anthony Holmes STAY HOUSING / 50 managing the bilateral relationship. SPEAKING OUT / 15 BOOKS / 72 By Deborah L. Riner Opening Embassies: FSJ GUIDE TO PROPERTY 46 / SENSING SENSIBILITY IN THE FALKLAND ISLANDS A New Approach Needed MANAGEMENT / 76 By Joseph Schreiber Today’s Falkland Islanders — visibly prosperous, INDEX TO wired and well educated — stand on the fringe FS KNOW-HOW / 18 ADVERTISERS / 82 of globalization. What lies ahead? Make the Most of Your AFSA NEWS / By Jim Dorschner Thrift Savings Plan CENTER INSERT 54 / BOLIVIA AT THE CROSSROADS By Steven Alan Honley Will Bolivia’s new president be a force for positive change REFLECTIONS / 84 or lead the country backward? This is the key question. The Streets of Nuevo Laredo By Peter DeShazo By Michael E. Kelly

THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS OREIGN ERVICE Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published FJ O U R N A L S monthly with a combined July/August issue by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit Editor Editorial Board STEVEN ALAN HONLEY organization. Material appearing herein represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent Senior Editor TED WILKINSON, the views of the Journal, the Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by SUSAN B. MAITRA CHAIRMAN e-mail. Journal subscription: AFSA Members - $13 included in annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, Associate Editor add $18 per year; foreign airmail, $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mail- KENT C. BROKENSHIRE SHAWN DORMAN ing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Foreign Service Journal, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. Ad & Circulation Manager STEPHEN W. BUCK 20037-2990. Indexed by Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited ED MILTENBERGER ANTHONY S. CHAN Business Manager LILLIAN DEVALCOURT-AYALA manuscripts, photos or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein MIKKELA V. T HOMPSON JOSH GLAZEROFF does not imply the endorsement of the services or goods offered. FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820. Art Director ILLIAM ORDAN E-MAIL: [email protected]. WEB: www.afsa.org. TELEPHONE: (202) 338-4045. © American Foreign Service CARYN SUKO SMITH W W. J Association, 2006. Printed in the U.S.A. Send address changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W., Editorial Intern LAURIE KASSMAN SHAWN GUAN JOYCE W. N AMDE Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Printed on 50-percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste. Advertising Intern KAY WEBB MAYFIELD MIHO KURISHIMA CHRISTOPHER L. TEAL Cover and inside illustrations by Elizabeth Lada

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PRESIDENT’S VIEWS The Pay-for-Performance/OCP Trade-Off: Poisoned Chalice or Win-Win? BY J. ANTHONY HOLMES

The first member ingly low initial level and with a long lation and the OCP provisions. Our reaction AFSA re- phase-in. main concern is that the performance- ceived to news that Pay for performance is an unknown pay funding is not guaranteed and could the administration for most of us. From media reports of be reduced or eliminated for budgetary had finally approved DOD/DHS efforts to convert their civil or other reasons. This concern is con- the phase-in of over- servants to a PFP system and the firmed by the provision in the draft seas comparability administration’s Working for America WFAA that guarantees equivalent pay — but only at Act targeting the rest of the Civil funding for only five years after passage. the price of linking it to the conversion Service, one can easily view it as menac- AFSA’s support for the trade-off is of the entire Foreign Service personnel ing, ideological, and anti-employee. But based primarily on one basic calcula- system to a “pay for performance” it is clear from State’s own experience tion. Almost two-thirds of the FS that is (PFP) model — was to liken this trade- with the Senior FS conversion to PFP overseas will receive close to a 20-per- off to “a poisoned chalice.” While I am two years ago that it should be possible cent salary increase when full OCP personally not so negative, this trade-off comes into effect. We reckon that this is extremely serious and entails real We will negotiate to will offset much of the initial PFP risk, risks. It is impossible to measure pre- protect all our members particularly if the Foreign Service pre- cisely its costs and benefits, not now and and construct a pay cedes the Civil Service in adopting it probably not ever. There are simply too and its proponents want to demonstrate many unknowns. Nor is it something system that is that it works. on which AFSA has bargaining rights, fundamentally fair AFSA is very mindful that the FS so we cannot simply accept or reject it. and efficient. has many disparate components and It is a top management initiative and that members could easily find them- AFSA can either try to make the best of to make this work and have a win-win selves in situations that prejudice their it or try to get it defeated legislatively. situation all around. The reality is that competitiveness for PFP increases. We have chosen the former option. the present FS personnel system, with What about those in long-term lan- Getting OCP for the entire Foreign its rank-in-person, not in-job, annual guage training, specialists in small skill Service has long been AFSA’s highest evaluations, and competitive up-or-out groups, or specialists who compete with priority. We came very close last year. system is inherently PFP already. So generalists? We will negotiate to pro- The entire House of Representatives the changes in the system should be tect all our members and construct a passed it, without the PFP quid pro much less dramatic than many of our system that is fundamentally fair and quo, despite White House opposition. members fear. efficient. We anticipate that the ulti- But the Senate proved more difficult, The primary trade-off for FS mem- mate system will be much less winner- and there is no reason to expect a dif- bers will be the loss of the 3-percent take-all than the PFP system imple- ferent outcome this year, particularly automatic, annual, within-grade in- mented for the SFS two years ago. This given the dire overall USG fiscal situa- crease, which over a career accounts for process is likely to play out for much of tion. So AFSA is grateful that after five close to half of one’s salary growth. In the next two years, and we will provide years of rejection, State Department principle, this loss will be offset by an regular updates and ask for feedback as management has won White House equally large pool of performance pay it evolves. But although much work approval for OCP, albeit at a disappoint- money to distribute based on relative remains, AFSA believes that, on bal- performance. Details of the new sys- ance, the administration’s FY-07 budget J. Anthony Holmes is the president of the tem will be negotiated with AFSA after request offers an important plus for our American Foreign Service Association. Congress has passed the enabling legis- members. I

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LETTERS

Lesser Posts? false statements, suppression of evi- ago. Coming from you, the plea is One inescapable and perverse con- dence, improper seizure of personal more meaningful and perhaps also sequence of Henry Ensher’s clanging property, misrepresentation of regula- more acceptable to policy-makers. defense of promotion priority for tions or other improprieties by those “Among the bilateral issues that those serving in posts linked to “the entrusted to protect us. If DS has to need to be addressed by the American time and attention an issue gets from resort to such means to justify the sus- and Iranian authorities, you list ‘claims our political masters” (January Letters, pension or revocation of security clear- by Iran that the U.S. is illegally holding “Iraq Is More Important”) is that the ances, then something is badly in need assets frozen by President Carter at next master class will, in turn, inherit of repair. the start of the hostage period ... .’ I the right to call the tune on career pro- It is not just our careers that hang would like to suggest that those inter- motions, and so on into the future. I in the balance. When trained and ested in that issue consult the docu- served in Accra, Athens, Brussels and experienced FSOs are suddenly cur- ments I donated to the U.S. National Khartoum, but never thought of any of tailed, sidelined for years or forced out Archives (partially available to the them as one of Ensher’s “lesser posts.” of the agency, operations are inter- public through the Jimmy Carter Alan D. Berlind rupted, efficiency is reduced and the Presidential Library) that include spe- Senior FSO, retired ability of the department to perform cific reference to the blocked funds. Bordeaux, France its core mission is seriously eroded. In a message from Secretary of State Concerned Foreign Service Officers is Cyrus Vance dated Jan. 19, 1980, I had a coalition of current and former the honor to transmit to Chairman Concerned FSOs Foreign Service officers concerned Arafat in Beirut a communication The September FSJ highlighted about these issues. Additional infor- regarding the return to Iran of the the Bureau of Diplomatic Security’s mation can be found on our Web site, assets removed by the shah from impressive performance protecting www.worldcrafters.com. Tehran. Arafat offered to have the American lives and diplomatic proper- William Savich issue referred to the International ty and investigating criminal cases DS Special Agent Court of Justice of The Hague for an overseas, as well as serious problems Concerned Foreign Service advisory opinion. The implication is in investigation and adjudication of Officers member clearly that in the American view, the security clearance suspension or revo- Herndon, Va. blocking of funds in the U.S. is a polit- cation cases. My 18 years of experi- ical act and must be solved by the two ence as a DS special agent indicates Dialogue with Iran countries directly involved and not by both points are true. I have worked Bravo for printing the article by an international organization. with some very fine DS officers, who Bruce Laingen, “25 Years Later, Time “The Iranian Foreign Minister at do outstanding work. for Dialogue with Iran,” in your the time, Sadeg Ghotbzadeh, consid- As a member of the group January issue. I thought readers may ered the assets to belong to the Iran- Concerned Foreign Service Officers, I be interested in the following note I ian people. The U.S. government have also had the opportunity to see sent Ambassador Laingen on the believed at the time that ‘it will not be first-hand numerous examples of topic: possible for the U.N. Security Council malfeasance or incompetence in secu- “It was with great interest and to recognize the legitimacy of Iran’s rity clearance cases. DS’s laudable admiration for your professional claim … as to the return of assets successes do not negate the need to uprightness and integrity that I read removed by him from Iran. Questions correct these failures. The protection your article. You will recall that I made such as recovery of assets are subject of national security does not justify the the same suggestion in messages to the to the sovereignty and law of individ- use of coercive interview techniques, Academy of Diplomacy some months ual nations involved and must be pur-

6 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2006

L ETTERS u sued between the two nations con- to the security measures volunteered could later publicly accuse him or her cerned.’ ” by Congolese authorities, he said, “Mr. of association with Operation Condor. By the way, with interest, the $8.5 Hussey, if you tell me to go and blow, (This was purportedly the network of billion in assets the U.S. froze in 1979 I’ll go blow!” And did he ever, not only various Latin American military com- are now worth close to $20 billion. The to the delight of crowds in the Congo, mands to combat local subversives). I issue remains a major subject of dis- but in every African country where believe Blystone — who met with cord between Iran and the U.S. performances were given. Louis DINA twice — when he says that he Bruce Laingen is correct to urge both Armstrong and his group, like those was unjustly linked to Operation sides to start talking about their prob- invited to participate in the cultural Condor, whose existence he knew lems. program, both before and after, nothing about. John Gunther Dean indeed provide a valuable understand- During my tour, I never heard Ambassador, retired ing and appreciation of American cul- about this operation from regime sup- Paris, France ture. porters nor from critics of the military Bill Hussey government. In fact, when I first Clarification on Promotions FSO, retired arrived, I had significant culture shock I must apologize for an error in my Laguna Woods, Calif. about why a vulture named “Condor- February Speaking Out column (“It’s ito” was a beloved mascot and cartoon Not Who You Know, It’s Where You Condor Classification character a la Donald Duck. Chileans Serve”), in which I stated that none of I’d like to back up Jim Blystone’s told me that the condor is a majestic the section heads at post during my remarks about his diplomatic work in bird in flight, much admired by them tenure in Vienna were promoted. In Chile (“The Domino Effect of as we do our American bald eagle. fact, the consul general there was pro- Improper Declassification,” January But as an Asian-American, I knew that moted into the Senior Foreign FSJ). From early 1975 to late 1976, I the Parsees in India and the Tibetans Service. His promotion was, however, was assigned by Embassy Santiago as traditionally use hungry vultures to chiefly related to an extended tempo- the only American official in the south. complete the open-air funeral of their rary duty tour in Moscow, not directly This placid territory, from Chiloe to dead. to his service in Vienna. I believe this Chillan, encompassed the beautiful Was this esoteric funeral rite in Asia squares with everyone’s understand- lakes region dotted with quiescent vol- the metaphor for Operation Condor in ing. canoes. However, the Chilean govern- Latin America — if it existed at all? John Allen Quintus ment deemed the country to be in a The prudent, bureaucratic response is FSO, retired state of siege and strictly enforced a “We don’t know. And we don’t want to Newark, Del. toque de queda (curfew) after mid- know.” State’s stonewalling of the night. Argentinians, especially passing the Horns for Understanding In mid-1976, when Chile hosted buck to Blystone, seems to fit this pat- The review of Richard Arndt’s book the conference of the Organization of tern. The First Resort of Kings: American American States, I traveled to Jose Armilla Cultural Diplomacy in the Twentieth Santiago to help man the embassy FSO, retired Century (November Journal) men- press center around the clock. This Former USIS director in tions Louis Armstrong as one of the was the base for American reporters Concepcion, Chile main artists sent abroad through pro- accompanying the U.S. delegation Vienna, Va. grams created by the then-Bureau of headed by Secretary of State Henry Educational and Cultural Affairs. As Kissinger. But before I could start Drafters’ Identities deputy director of the office of cultur- work, the regional security officer sent I was saddened but not surprised to al affairs in the early 1960s, I some- me to the headquarters of DINA (the read the article by James Blystone. times briefed performers prior to Chilean secret police) to apply for a Inclusion of drafting and clearing departure overseas. curfew pass. While there, I had coffee information in cables released under One such briefing was for Mr. and polite conversation with the staff the Freedom of Information Act has Armstrong, his wife and several others of this elite military unit whose per- been a problem since at least the late in his group. The Congo, one of the sonnel appeared in mufti. Presum- 1970s. stops on the tour, was faced with civil ably, the name of every American When I served as desk officer for disturbance. This bothered Mr. diplomat who visited this office was Congo (then Zaire) from 1979-1981, I Armstrong. However, after listening fair game. Any defector from this unit consistently refused to clear FOIA

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L ETTERS u responses that did not delete the draft- of understanding that the department June 1986 issue of the FSJ featured a ing and clearing information from all and overseas posts must speak with cover story entitled “Teens Overseas.” documents, whether cables, airgrams, one voice. It seems to have irrepara- As part of that, I wrote an article about letters or memos. But mine was not a bly weakened that concept. the results of my research project of common position. I’d become sensi- It’s past time for the department’s the 220 merit awardees. tized to the problem when a young FOIA managers to give their troops James F. Prosser officer who had previously served in clear instructions that drafting and FSO, retired Embassy Kinshasa was pilloried — by clearing information should always be Green Bay, Wis. name — on the Hill and in the animal- redacted from documents released to rights community over a gift primate the public. The public’s right to FS Blogs that had become the ambassador’s understand how policy is formed is I read with interest the January household pet. The officer had no met by the substance of the paper report on various blogs by FSOs direct involvement with either the trail, not the minutia of the drafting (Cybernotes). As an AFSA member, I treatment or disposition of the animal; process. would like to let you know about this all he had done was draft a polite Mary Lee K. Garrison one: http://FSOglobetrotter.blogspot. response, for the ambassador’s signa- FSO, retired com. ture, to an overwrought animal Alexandria, Va. Its unique subject is food, faces and activist. But he was listed as drafter on airplanes as seen through the eyes of a the bottom of the released copy of the Keeping in Touch diplomat. It includes many pictures of letter. Mikkela Thompson’s article in the food. Twenty years later the problem December issue was most interesting Nathan Tidwell persisted, as FOIA requests reached and enjoyable (“Lost and Found: FSO my desk at the Haiti Working Group International School Reunions”). I Embassy Lahore with drafting information intact. It copied it and sent it to my son, was not at all clear from my discus- Stephen Prosser, now serving as an An FSO Resigns sions with the individuals handling FSO in England. With deep sadness I depart the those FOIA requests that they had Steve attended several internation- State Department, prematurely end- been given any guidelines regarding al schools in his elementary and high ing a 24-year Foreign Service career. redaction of drafting and clearing school years. Three years ago he and I voluntarily leave what had been a information, or that they shared my several classmates of his at the largely rewarding career in which I concern over its exclusion. It seems International School of Kenya ar- raised two daughters to know and that the further passage of five years ranged a 20th-anniversary reunion of appreciate the world I spent almost has not brought either clarity or con- their high-school graduating class in four decades traveling. I take this sistency. Vienna, Va. It was attended by about action because I believe that State is When I joined the State Depart- 25 students, out of a class of 42! They no longer effectively representing the ment in 1973, I was told that cables came from the four corners of the values and priorities that have been and airgrams left post over the ambas- globe. the foundation of our security and the sador’s name because once a message Many of the observations made in source of American strength. The dis- was duly cleared it ceased to be the your article applied equally to those sonance between many of the actions point of view of the drafter and students of the 1970s and 1980s. and policies implemented — cherry- became the point of view of the mis- From 1985 to 1986, I served on picked prewar intelligence, pre-emp- sion. Similarly, instructions from AFSA’s Committee on Education, a tive war, secret foreign CIA detention Washington were not those of a partic- position I thoroughly enjoyed. The centers and torture, warrantless ular bureau or assistant secretary; they AFSA scholarship program celebrated domestic spying — and my own val- were instructions from the Depart- its 10th anniversary in 1986. I volun- ues, common sense and experience ment of State. The Carter administra- teered to do a research project asking has simply become too great. tion’s initiative to have drafters identi- the 220 merit awardees questions I recognize that successful Foreign fy themselves in the body of incoming about how Foreign Service life affect- Service officers must have an excep- and outgoing messages — nominally ed them at the time compared to 10 tional tolerance for ambiguity. And I so that overseas drafting officers could years later. I was impressed by the understand that higher strategic aims get credit in Washington for their good informative responses and large per- often necessitate compromises in pur- work — was based on a profound lack centage of awardees replying. The suit of the ultimate objective. During

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L ETTERS u my postings in South America, the Caribbean, Russia, the Middle East, Africa and Washington, I have also had serious doubts about some of the policies of previous administrations. Until recently, however, I took some solace in the belief that State itself, while ultimately the policy-implemen- Whether you are with tation arm of the administration, was the Local, State or playing an important role within poli- Federal Government cy-making councils as a voice of rea- agency or the military, son, experience and realism. I can no Crimson offers superior longer take such comfort. Like our solutions to fit your intelligence agencies, State is increas- budget and per diem. ingly becoming a mere political arm of Crimson Government the administration which, for political Housing Solutions reasons, continues to exploit post- Include: 9/11 emotions. Assignment Changes One need not be an expert to see Evacuations the damage that the conduct of the Intern Programs faultily-conceived, poorly-understood International Visitors and ineptly executed Iraq War, as well Project teams as the politicization of the “War on Relocations Terrorism,” have done to our standing Short / Long Details in the world and to the ideals that his- TDY torically have been our most powerful Training attributes. We are failing to accurate- ly analyze why the world is responding Crimson offers an as it is and instead focus our efforts on exceptional value in how to force the rest of the world to temporary housing for accept our values and perception of government personnel. the way life should be. American Our furnished leadership must, by example, be wor- apartments and single- thy of emulation, in order to build a family homes are a worldwide support base. Force will spacious and more not replace this long-term need, and luxurious alternative to the backlash will eventually obliterate the cramped quarters the good for which the United States of a hotel room. historically has been a beacon of light. Additionally, State is now unable to truly effectively serve as an adviser on, 202.986.0433 or implementer of, its public diploma- 888.233.7759 cy mission. State’s public diplomacy [email protected] role is suffering from poor but superi- www.crimsonworldwide.com or-pleasing management, decreased funding and an inability to recognize Fully furnished apartments and single family homes, with large and respond to current realities. Our spacious rooms, full sized kitchens, and housewares. Separate living, best minds are often managing illu- dining and sleeping areas. Hotel style amenities, including swimming sions or treating symptoms, not pools, hot tubs, fitness centers, optional maid service and more. addressing underlying causes. Mean- Rates within the TDY per diem. while, the military, however, which has almost unlimited resources to pro-

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L ETTERS u ject the administration’s “message,” is true of policies related to the $15 bil- Careerism at State cripples critical incrementally taking over State’s pub- lion HIV/AIDS program executed by thinking. And within the department’s lic diplomacy operation. the Office of the Global AIDS Coor- internal bureaucracy, professional Our current policies directed at dinator with a constant eye to maxi- punishment and sophisticated, target- developing countries also fall far short mizing positive domestic political pub- ed retribution for any deviation from of their purported goals, inviting disas- licity. The recent appointment of “the message” are increasingly effec- ter. Despite our rhetoric to the con- OGAC’s political-appointee head (and tive and expertly hidden behind a trary, we have gradually become part former CEO of pharmaceutical giant shield of multiple maneuvers using of the problem. In Africa, for exam- Eli Lilly) Randall Tobias to head personnel system “mechanisms” de- ple, the few continue to grow richer USAID, as well as function as overall signed and scripted for deniability. while more than half of the 900 mil- foreign assistance director, will result Officers are discredited, promotions, lion Africans live in destitution, earn- in even further politicization of our tenure and assignments jeopardized, ing no more than a dollar a day — lit- foreign assistance program. careers destroyed. erally not a cent better off than when The administration’s indifference Edward R. Murrow said that we I first set foot in Africa in 1968. to suffering everywhere — now evi- cannot defend freedom abroad by Within State’s Africa Bureau, dent both at home, post-Katrina, and deserting it at home. It is truer than where I most recently handled public in our activities internationally — ever today, when loyalty and being “on diplomacy for 16 countries of West makes it increasingly difficult to be message” trump critical analysis and Africa and served as the public affairs optimistic. Despite the administra- forthright honesty. I fully realize that liaison on HIV/AIDS, I see distress- tion’s truly massive PR, its HIV/AIDS for others in the department who may ingly few significant results of our poli- policy will eventually become a per- privately share my views, my decision cies, despite the valiant efforts of offi- manent blot on our record as millions to depart may be unacceptably costly cers everywhere. This is particularly perish unnecessarily. This policy is in personal terms. I personally regret, making an entire generation of however, that I did not take this action Africans unwilling pawns in its quest earlier. I clung to the hope that we to impress American voters with its would right ourselves. Unfortunately own perceived morality. that has not happened in the years The disease is the biggest threat since 9/11 and I do not see it on the faced by Africa, where two-thirds of horizon. the world’s 40 million HIV/AIDS I hardly believe that my premature patients live. It contributes to a departure from State will have any marked drop in productivity and to effect on the course of U.S. foreign increased despair and is feeding a policy, but I am compelled to add growth in political instability. Of the another voice to what I hope becomes 40 million stricken, only 471,000 now a groundswell against the directions receive anti-viral treatment from our we have taken. Were I to remain $15 billion program. African leader- silent any longer, I would be con- ships have been pushed by the U.S. to tributing to this deception by lending emphasize abstinence and de-empha- credence to the illusion that things are size condom use — or lose funding. as they ought to be. They are not. These policies will lead to a reversal of Peggy S. Zabriskie progress in the treatment of AIDS. FSO, newly retired Simply stated, Africans in the millions Holetown, Barbados I are expendable if it serves the re-elec- tion needs of politicians. This, cou- pled with African leaderships some- times mired in increasingly skillfully- Send your letters to: executed corruption (which we ver- [email protected]. bally criticize but often effectively Note that all letters are ignore when in our perceived “inter- subject to editing for style, est” to do so) simply adds to growing format and length. frustration.

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CYBERNOTES

Central America Trade Pact Off 10-percent increase in poverty levels to a Halting Start here is no evidence that we lowers the growth rate by 1 percent As the Central America-Domini- or anyone can guide from and reduces investment by up to 8 can Republic-United States Free T afar revolutions we have percent of GDP, especially in coun- Trade Agreement, the much-heralded set in motion. [Pushing tries with underdeveloped financial southern extension of NAFTA, ekes democracy in places that have systems. its way toward implementation amid “The benefits of trade can be great- continuing controversy, the World no history of it] may, in fact, ly enhanced if countries complement Bank delivered a new report showing constitute an uncontrollable their agreements with investments in that pro-growth policies like trade lib- experiment with an outcome akin areas such as education, infrastructure eralization are fruitless without com- to that faced by the Sorcerer’s and conditional transfers for poor plementary, targeted poverty-reduc- Apprentice. regions and farm workers who may tion actions. suffer in the transition,” says Guil- Instead of the Jan. 1 target date for — Rep. Henry J. Hyde, R-Ill., lermo Perry, World Bank chief econo- implementation of the agreement chairman of the House mist for Latin America and the that would eliminate trade barriers International Relations Caribbean and one of the report’s between the U.S. and the six signato- Committee, Feb. 16, authors. “Fighting poverty is not only ry countries over the next decade, http://wwwc.house.gov/ good for the poor; it’s also good busi- CAFTA-DR will be implemented “on international_relations/109/ ness for the whole of society.” a rolling basis,” U.S. Trade Represen- hyde021606.pdf. — Susan Maitra tative spokesperson Christin Baker disclosed on Dec. 19. On Feb. 24, the Sticks and Stones: USTR announced that El Salvador Caricatures Ignite a Firestorm would be the first country to imple- exports. But controversy attends the The uproar over the publication of ment CAFTA-DR, doing so on March agreement both in the U.S. and in several caricatures of the Prophet 1 (http://www.ustr.gov/Trade_Agre the signatory countries, where sensi- Mohammed deemed offensive by ements/Bilateral/CAFTA/Briefing tivity over the U.S. role is acute. For Muslims continues to have a signifi- _Book/Section_Index.html). the opponents’ view see Public Citi- cant political and economic impact. The U.S., Costa Rica, the Domini- zen (www.publiccitizen.org/tra The images, originally published in can Republic, El Salvador, Guatema- de/cafta). The “progressive case for September 2005 by the Danish paper la, Honduras and Nicaragua signed CAFTA” is detailed by the Demo- Jyllands-Posten and subsequently CAFTA-DR in August 2004, and all cratic Leadership Council’s Progres- reprinted in Europe and elsewhere, but Costa Rica have ratified it. But sive Policy Institute (http://www.pp stirred outrage among the Muslim implementation is a major hurdle as ionline.org/ppi_ci.cfm?knlgArea community, leading to a wave of each country is required to make, in ID=108&subsecID=900010&con protests, both peaceful and violent some cases far-reaching, changes to tentID=253428). (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyl domestic trade and commerce laws to Meanwhile, the World Bank re- lands-Posten_Muhammad_car comply. port, “Poverty Reduction and Growth: toons_controversy). Central America is the second- Virtuous and Vicious Circles,” mobi- The diplomatic fallout was imme- largest U.S. export market in Latin lizes data and expertise to argue that diate. Denmark closed its embassies America, behind Mexico, absorbing free trade is not enough (www.world in Beirut and Damascus after they more than $16 billion in American bank.org). According to the study, a were significantly damaged in pro-

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C YBERNOTES u

tests, and withdrew its ambassadors tions, a United Nations body dedicat- and staff from Lebanon and Syria. ed to fighting prejudice. Embassies around the world were the The Organization of the Islamic focus of demonstrations and protests. Conference (http://www.oic-oci. Danish citizens have been advised to org/), in conjunction with the Euro- avoid countries in the Middle East, pean Union and the U.N., issued con- North Africa, and South Asia in light demnations of both the cartoons and of threats issued by Islamic funda- the violent backlash they created. mentalist groups. The OIC is seeking assurance from Across the Middle East, supermar- the E.U. that Muslim beliefs will be kets stopped carrying Danish prod- respected in the future. Pope Bene- ucts. Arla Foods, a Danish company dict XVI expressed the same senti- whose sales in the Middle East aver- ments while speaking to the Moroc- age $430 million a year, has been can ambassador. forced to cancel all production in After initially issuing a sharp criti- Saudi Arabia. A spokeswoman stated cism of the drawings for inciting reli- that the company lost $20 million in gious or ethnic hatred through the several days of the boycott. Denmark State Department on Feb. 3, the threatened to demand compensation Bush administration turned to con- from Saudi Arabia under the World demnation of the violence that had Trade Organization, but the Saudi been unleashed. government claims the boycott is not Though the controversy generated an official movement, an assertion the by the cartoons appears to have WTO has accepted. The Iranian gov- ebbed, at least temporarily, it marks a ernment has suspended all trade with 21st-century watershed in the debate Denmark. over free speech and religion. Denmark’s exports to the Middle — Shawn Guan, Editorial Intern East region average $1 billion annual- ly, and the boycotts are expected to Ideals vs. Profit: Internet affect this sum dramatically. Some Freedom in the Balance analysts view the boycotts as an The recent, highly-publicized attempt by Middle Eastern and North interaction between Google and the African companies to expand their government of the People’s Republic own market shares. of China has drawn renewed atten- Danish authorities hastened to try tion to the issue of Internet censor- to control the damage. Copenhagen ship and prompted the Bush admin- announced several measures (http: istration to set up a “Global Internet //www.um.dk/NR/rdonlyres/FF0D Freedom Task Force” at the State 01B8-67F3-4A5C-8E25-07E69 Department. ABBAD48/0/StatementByTheDan Dubbed “The Great Firewall of ishMinisterOfForeignAffairs.pdf). China,” the policy of the Chinese gov- The government has invited promi- ernment is to bar access to porno- nent Muslim scholars and clerics to graphic and politically sensitive Web attend a conference on Islam, and is sites. Certain search terms are planning a festival to celebrate and restricted, and personal communica- bring exposure to Islamic culture and tion tools such as web logs and e-mail religion. It has also pledged to make are monitored. Blogs are heavily reg- donations to the Alliance of Civiliza- ulated, with content deemed inappro-

12 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2006

C YBERNOTES u

hindered by the outbreak of the Iran- Iraq War. The project moved forward 50 Years Ago... in 1995 when the Russians agreed to There is a widespread and unjustified belief that many provide assistance in completing the Foreign Service officers, cowed by certain security construction of the Bushehr power practices, conceal their opinion or pull their punches or write in veiled reactor. But it was only in 2002, with the discovery of two previously undis- language. closed nuclear-related facilities at — Martin F. Herz, in “Some Problems of Political Reporting,” FSJ, Natanz and Arak, that global attention April 1956. was again drawn to Iran. Before this exposure, Iran’s activi- ties appeared to have been in compli- priate by the government removed. “to ensure a robust policy response to ance with the Non-Proliferation Foreign companies who want to oper- the challenges” (www.state.gov/r/ Treaty, to which it is a party. However, ate in China are required to comply pa/prs/ps/2006/61156.htm). In a the revelation of secret nuclear facili- with this policy. (See the Open Net back-and-forth with reporters on the ties led many countries to question Initiative’s detailed case study on occasion, Under Secretary for Econo- the motivations behind Iran’s nuc- China at http://www.opennetinitia mic, Business and Agricultural Affairs lear research, and to question tive.net/studies/china/.) Josette Shiner and Under Secretary whether Iran might be in breach of The news that Google had agreed for Democracy and Global Affairs the Non-Proliferation Treaty (http:// to such terms set off a volley of criti- Paula Dobriansky explained that www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/). cism in the U.S. The company de- GIFT would work with companies, Iranian obstacles to the work of IAEA fended the decision in an official NGOs and governments to address inspectors only worsened the situa- statement: “Our continued engage- concerns on all aspects of Internet tion. ment with China is the best (and per- freedom (www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/ Tehran argues that it requires haps only) way for Google to help rm/2006/61182.htm). nuclear power to accommodate its bring the tremendous benefits of uni- — Susan Maitra and growing population and to free up oil versal access to all our users there.” Shawn Guan, Editorial Intern for export, but the U.S. argues that To the PRC’s irritation, google.cn Iran has enough oil reserves to pro- informs users when results have been Tehran’s Nuclear Aspirations: vide adequate energy (testimony at blocked. In addition, Chinese surf- Not a Zero-Sum Game http://www.state.gov/t/us/rm/212 ers can still access the uncensored The Iranian nuclear issue returned 47.htm, accompanying media at Chinese-language version of the U.S.- to the forefront of global concern with http://www.state.gov/t/us/21782. based google.com. the decision of the International htm). Google is not the only American Atomic Energy Agency on Feb. 4 to The U.S. and some European company to stay engaged in China — report its findings regarding Iran to nations are wary of potential Iranian a country that is second only to the the United Nations Security Council, nuclear-weapons capacity, especially U.S. in Internet use, with 130 million for use in determining possible sanc- in the light of President Mahmoud users. Yahoo!, for example, reported- tions (http://www.iaea.org). Ahmadinejad’s aggressive October ly identified users who sent anti-gov- Iran’s nuclear program has a long 2005 statements regarding Israel, ernment e-mails, resulting in several history, from the 1960s, when the which were immediately condemned. arrests. Microsoft recently removed a United States provided a small re- Another reason for concern is that blog from its MSN Spaces at the search reactor to the shah’s govern- such weapons could potentially fall request of the Chinese government. ment. The program was delayed by into the hands of terrorist groups. The issue has struck a chord in the the onset of the Iranian Revolution, Various approaches to the resolu- Bush administration. On Feb. 14, which cut off the flow of information tion of this issue are advocated by Secretary of State Rice established the and technology from Europe and the think-tanks, most emphasizing the use Global Internet Freedom Task Force U.S. Development was then further of military force only in the case of an

APRIL 2006/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 13

C YBERNOTES u

absolute exhaustion of diplomatic and development program with greater independence from oil imports would economic options. Since the 1981 urgency, secrecy and determination mitigate the effect of instability in the Israeli bombing of the Iraqi nuclear (http://www.oxfordresearchgroup. Middle East. Furthermore, a military facility in Osirak, the military option org.uk/publications/briefings/Iran strike, they argue, “could help en- has held an attraction for some, such Consequences.pdf). trench a radical regime in power and as the Hudson Institute’s Herbert I. Most groups advocate economic might only delay an Iranian bomb,” a London, who claims military force is deterrence. An example of a sanc- sentiment echoed by Judith Yaphe “the most likely strategem for success” tions-based solution is the approach and Charles Lutes of the National (http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm recommended by Michael O’Hanlon Defense University in a recent study ?fuseaction=publication_details& and David Sandalow of the Brookings (http://www.ndu.edu/inss/mcnair/ id=3888). Institution (http://www.Brook.edu/ mcnair69/McNairPDF.pdf). Yet the Oxford Research Group views/op-ed/fellows/20060131. In testimony on Feb. 1 before the recently estimated that U.S. military htm). It would be prudent for the House Armed Services Committee, action against Iran could kill thou- world community to develop an alter- George Perkovich, vice president of sands of civilians, trigger more terror- native energy source so sanctions tar- the Carnegie Endowment for Inter- ist attacks in the region (potentially geting Iran’s most lucrative export national Peace, highlighted potential targeting oil-processing facilities), and (oil) become economically and physi- problems with sanctions targeting oil drive Iran to carry out its nuclear cally viable, they say. In addition, exports (http://www.carnegieen dowment.org/publications/index. cfm?fa=view&id=17967&prog= Site of the Month: www.opennetinitiative.net zgp&proj=znpp,zusr). He instead Ever wonder what a censored Internet looks like? Check out the OpenNet advocated cutting off foreign invest- Initiative Web site: among other things, it features a tool that lets you compare ment and food imports into Iran. searches for sensitive keywords on Google’s censored Chinese search engine, While neither of these is as large a google.cn, with results from google.com. part of the Iranian economy as oil The OpenNet Initiative is a joint project of the Citizen Lab at the University exports, Iran still needs both of them of Toronto’s Munk Centre for International Studies, Harvard Law School’s to survive. Also, cutting off those Berkman Center for Internet & Society and the Advanced Network Research channels would have minimal impact Group at the University of Cambridge Cambridge Security Program. These on the global economy. He also dis- three leading academic institutions have partnered to train their concerted agrees with pre-emptive military attention on the problems of maintaining the Internet as a medium of free and intervention, citing a lack of adequate open communication. intelligence and the unpredictable The group’s stated aim is to excavate, expose and analyze filtering and sur- outcome. veillance practices in a credible and nonpartisan fashion: “We intend to uncov- For more information on the topic, er the potential pitfalls and unintended consequences of these practices, and the IAEA’s focus section on Iran thus help to inform better public policy and advocacy work in this area.” (http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/ Though filtering and surveillance occur mostly in non-democratic regimes, Focus/IaeaIran/index.shtml) con- many democratic countries, led by the U.S., also seek to police the Internet and tains interviews, statements and back- curb its perceived lawlessness, ONI says. ground information from the agency, ONI relies on a combination of sophisticated network interrogation tools in addition to outside news links. The and metrics and a global network of regionally-based researchers and experts U.S. Army War College’s Strategic to conduct research, which is then posted at the Web site in the form of nation- Studies Institute has published a com- al and regional case studies, occasional papers and bulletins. The group also prehensive analysis dealing with the operates a clearinghouse for circumvention technologies, both assessing what is consequences of a nuclear-ready Iran on the market and developing technologies in-house, and explores the legal and (http://www.strategicstudiesinst political implications of future surveillance and filtering trends. itute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB629. — Susan Maitra pdf. I — Shawn Guan, Editorial Intern

14 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2006

SPEAKING OUT Opening Embassies: A New Approach Needed

BY JOSEPH SCHREIBER

s presently organized, the of setting up the mission. We did not State Department’s adminis- Setting up New have the tools to do our jobs efficient- trative support system gener- ly. The result was poor morale and A Embassy Teams to ally works well. But there is one designation of Luanda as a “hard-to- major exception: it is ill-suited to the open and develop fill” post. opening of new embassies. new diplomatic I remember Deputy Assistant In some ways, that weakness is an Secretary of State for African Affairs understandable aspect of the depart- missions would cut Jeff Davidow, in one of my pre-assign- ment’s emphasis on managing estab- across bureaucratic ment briefings, stating that the plan lished overseas missions. To make lines and get the job was to open a “medium-size” embassy the wheels turn efficiently (most of in Luanda with a staff of 40-50 the time, anyway) management offi- done efficiently. Americans from State and other agen- cers and their staffs deal routinely cies. The rejection of national election with myriad program and administra- results by our client at the time, Jonas tive demands from Washington: Luanda: A Decade Wasted Savimbi’s UNITA rebel group, result- requests for detailed information The United States maintained a ed in civil war, putting those plans on from the regional bureaus, budgeting consulate general in Luanda during hold. Halloween 1992 is a memo- and financial reports for the Bureau the Portuguese colonial era in Angola, rable date for those of us serving in of Resource Management, overseas closing it in 1975 with the coming to Luanda then, marking the start of school grants and reports, facility and power of the communist regime of armed hostilities lasting nearly three housing requests/waivers for the Agostinho Neto. The fall of the Soviet years. Overseas Building Operations Bur- Union and other communist govern- The government of Angola cleared eau, and classification and compensa- ments in Eastern Europe between Luanda of rebels by early 1993, and tion requirements for locally en- 1989 and 1991 soon brought the Washington established full diplomat- gaged staff. An extensive network of winds of change to Africa, as well. In ic relations in April of that year. How- management and program offices in 1990 the United Nations sent a repre- ever, we were nowhere near ready to Washington ably backs up post man- sentative to Luanda to prepare the support “normal” embassy operations. agement sections in carrying out way for the country’s first free elec- In fact, regular State cable communi- those duties. tions, and Washington opened a liai- cations were not established until When it comes to opening new son office there the next year. 1995, and e-mail was not available diplomatic missions, however, the In many ways, USLO Luanda was a until the late 1990s. time has come for the department to success story, paving the way for the A major disconnect came in the revamp its approach. Consider the establishment of a full-fledged emb- area of real property. At Washington’s following examples of how the cur- assy in 1993. But as the post’s admin- direction, our mission attempted to rent system operates, drawn from istrative officer from September 1992 acquire a site for a chancery, but land my own experience as a manage- to August 1994, I can attest to the fact tenure in Angola was so uncertain that ment officer. that State was ill-prepared for the task efforts to accomplish a secure pur-

APRIL 2006/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 15

S PEAKING O UT u chase were frustrated. By mid-1993 The Corinthia is a comfortable five- growth, as well as for security reasons, we recommended to the Foreign star hotel, but it is ill-suited to U.S. it cannot house all embassy opera- Buildings Office (now known as the mission operations from several view- tions, including much of the manage- Bureau of Overseas Buildings Opera- points: communications (no regular ment section. Those folks now have to tions) that it develop the one piece of State cable traffic nor even access to work in trailers for the next couple of property we had in hand: the Mira- the Sensitive-But-Unclassified Open- years while the former chancery build- mar site — approximately one acre of Net system is possible); security (try- ing is renovated. How much say did land overlooking Luanda Bay and the ing to run a secure embassy-type oper- the mission, or even the Bureau of city — where the temporary chancery ation in a hotel is an RSO’s nightmare); South Asian Affairs (now the Bureau and a number of mobile homes were and, cramped, makeshift office ar- of South and Central Asian Affairs) located. rangements. A prospective new em- have in planning the office space and OBO rejected this advice, insisting bassy compound site identified nearly other architectural decisions? I sus- that the Miramar site was destined to one year ago has run into local zoning pect very little. But this is an aspect be used exclusively for a chief-of-mis- issues, exacerbated by chilly relations that can be taken into account in the sion residence. Through most of the between Tripoli and Washington. proposed solution below. 1990s various futile attempts were Accordingly, as anyone who has made to identify alternate sites for the dealt with these projects recognizes, A Possible Solution new embassy compound. Finally, in the construction of a permanent com- Given the increasing number of 1998 the head of OBO, realizing the pound in Tripoli is at least three to five players, each with its own fiefdom folly of this approach, accepted the years away. Yet there has been little (e.g., the regional bureaus, OBO, DS, mission’s recommendation to develop effort by Washington to establish RM, IRM, A, HR/OE, etc.), a new Miramar as our chancery site. I interim offices outside the hotel, approach is needed to opening and understand the new embassy com- although the mission has suggested developing new diplomatic missions pound was finally completed in 2004. several alternatives. — one that cuts across bureaucratic But until then, mission personnel con- Nevertheless, the USLO/Tripoli lines and gets the job done efficiently. tinued to suffer with a temporary team is doing its best to carry out its In my opinion, this suggests the cre- Butler Building chancery that was ill- demanding mission under these diffi- ation of special New Embassy Teams, suited for current embassy operations, cult conditions. To me, the present headed by OBO representatives but lacking even minimal security fea- situation there — where the USLO including relatively senior representa- tures. And State had paid over team is striving to advance our impor- tives (FS-2 or higher) from the above $500,000 per year for leased manage- tant bilateral and regional interests — bureaus. The NET leader would ment offices and consular space in is a bit like trying to build the roof first, report directly to the under secretary another location in Luanda. and then the rest of the building. for management, and M would rate the team members on their contribu- Tripoli: More of the Same Kabul: Poor Planning tion to efficient establishment of new A stint in Tripoli from March to Embassy Kabul, where I worked as embassies — not on how well they April 2005 as a When Actually a WAE in late 2005, had operated serve their home bureau’s interests. Employed annuitant, convinced me since 2002 out of the old chancery The NET would be able to harmo- that State is headed down the same building, which dates from 1967 but nize the design, sizing and construc- path yet again in Libya. We had was closed in 1979. As one can imag- tion planning of a new embassy, so as opened a liaison office in Tripoli in ine, after 23 years of non-use and to accommodate all relevant bureau- June 2004, following Moammar Qad- neglect, it was woefully inadequate as cratic interests from the start. This hafi’s renunciation of weapons of mass a 21st-century U.S. embassy. Recog- would permit the incorporation of the destruction and agreement to turn nizing this, OBO undertook the con- latest information technology innova- over to a Scottish court two agents struction of a new chancery in 2002, at tions, current physical security stan- allegedly behind the 1988 bombing of a cost of several hundred million dol- dards, etc., in the design and construc- Pan Am Flight 102. Nearly two years lars. tion phases, and largely eliminate cost- later, USLO/Tripoli is still operating in The new embassy is a beautiful ly change orders. the Corinthia Bab Africa Hotel — and facility, and many staff began moving There are some who would argue paying several million dollars a year for into it in October 2005. But there’s a that directly involving M in the new the privilege. big hitch: Due to unanticipated embassy process will only complicate

16 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2006

S PEAKING O UT u matters. But given the powerful, often have full plates of ongoing support competing bureaucratic interests with- operations — and overstretched post in State, I don’t see any reasonable The NETs would management officers in Washing- alternative. In addition, while OBO ton who, in any event, lack the author- does reasonably well in terms of site be able to ity to coordinate functional bureau acquisition and construction, it is not input — will only perpetuate the halt- now in a position to harmonize those accommodate all ing, money-wasting process we have interests. today. I The NETs could also be of much- relevant bureaucratic needed assistance to management sec- Joseph Schreiber retired in 2004 after tions at posts seeking to set up new interests from the start. a career of 31 years in the Foreign embassy compounds. After all, lost in Service, mainly in the management the big picture and glamour of open- field. His most recent posts were as ing a new chancery are the numerous management counselor in San Salva- tasks typically laid at the feet of our dor, Madrid and San Jose, where he management officers: caring for the with Washington on the inevitable now resides with his family and is a never-ending stream of Washington budget shortfalls associated with new partner in a rain-forest vanilla opera- visitors and staff on temporary duty; embassy compound moves. tion. He is also active in local school handling special procurement needs; No solution is perfect. But leaving and community affairs, and works coordinating the office moves; arrang- coordination of the process to overseas occasionally as a WAE management ing for swing space; and coordinating management officers who already officer.

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APRIL 2006/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 17

FS KNOW-HOW Make the Most of Your Thrift Savings Plan

BY STEVEN ALAN HONLEY

pril is the cruelest month,” Retirement System) to defined con- “ T.S. Eliot famously observ- tribution systems (such as FERS). There is no substitute A ed. He probably didn’t The distinction meant that FERS have the deadline for filing income for making the employees have to depend far more taxes in mind when he penned those maximum allowable heavily upon their TSP investments words, but many of us still identify than their CSRS colleagues. particularly strongly with the senti- contribution to your By the way, even though CSRS ment at this time of year. TSP each year. employees do not receive any govern- Fortunately, there are some ways ment matching funds for their TSP to use your Thrift Savings Plan con- contributions, they, too, are advised tributions to ease the pain of tax sea- to contribute the maximum to their son and maximize your gains. tax burden, but they also forfeit the Thrift Savings Plan. 1. Sign up for the TSP! gains they could have realized by 3. Make use of the catch-up According to the Profit Sharing/401k investing those funds. provision. Under the Catch-Up Council of America (www.psca.org), Some TSP participants rationalize Contributions for All Act, the ceiling about 17 percent of all Americans eli- the choice to invest less than the max- on TSP contributions by federal gible for enrollment in 401(k) plans imum by opening Roth Individual employees aged 50 or older has been such as the TSP don’t participate. If Retirement Accounts and other steadily rising since 2002, when it was you are among that short-sighted IRAs. However, those programs fre- just $1,000 higher than the maximum minority, it is never too late to sign up; quently lack the TSP’s automatic con- younger workers could contribute. unlike health plans, there is no “open tribution mechanism, so they require Effective this year, the supplemental season” for enrolling to take advan- much more discipline to make install- limit has reached $5,000, meaning tage of the three key requirements of ment payments. In addition, because that TSP participants who are at least wealth accumulation: sufficient time Roth IRAs permit withdrawals with 50 years old are eligible to contribute for money to compound, enough no further taxes or penalties (unlike a total of $20,000 annually to their money doing the compounding, and a TSP contributions), it can be very TSP. (You just need to submit Form sufficient level of earnings on those tempting to use those invested dollars TSP-1-C.) dollars over time. Of those three fac- to pay for vacations, a new car, etc. 4. Understand your TSP with- tors, time is the most important by a instead of letting them accrue savings drawal options. It’s always impor- wide margin. for retirement. tant to know your options, but it obvi- 2. Maximize your contribu- To put it bluntly, maximum contri- ously becomes even more critical tions. Wisely, most federal employ- butions are imperative for workers in when you retire and have to make a ees do put in at least enough to get the Federal Employees Retirement choice of how to collect your accu- the government’s 5-percent match. System unless they are independent- mulated funds. For instance, few However, many do not contribute the ly wealthy or have a significant sec- employees pick the Designated maximum allowable $15,000 a year, ond source of income. When the fed- Payment or Lifetime Annuity options, even when they can afford to do so. eral government instituted FERS either because of preconceived ideas This is true even though TSP contri- more than 20 years ago, it signaled about the value of doing so or simply butions are “out of sight, out of mind” that it was following corporate because they don’t understand the and the money is seldom missed. Not America in changing retirement sys- ramifications. Yet both options are only do such employees pass up the tems from defined benefit systems worthy of consideration in many chance to lower their yearly income (such as the old Civil Service (though not all) circumstances where

18 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2006

FS KNOW-HOW u one needs an “income bridge” for a investment options. Recall that in the certain period, or where living to a late 1990s, with the sudden collapse ripe old age runs in the family. In In the late 1990s, of the high-tech boom, many retirees such cases, money needs to be guar- invested themselves back into employ- anteed to last a long time. the sudden collapse of ment. When Social Security was estab- At the same time, particularly for lished 71 years ago, mortality in the the high-tech boom younger investors, it is necessary to U.S. was an average of 63 years. take some equity risk to give your Today, that figure is 78, and rising — forced many retirees portfolio a chance to outpace infla- so running out of money in retire- tion (which has begun to rise again, it ment is a real possibility. Because back to work. should be noted). the only withdrawal option in the 8. Don’t try to time the mar- TSP that guarantees lifetime income ket. On a related note, there are a is the annuity option, do consider it number of companies claiming to carefully. have success in timing TSP invest- You may also want to investigate ments by making frequent switches the possibility of a joint annuity with negative consequences if you get among various funds. The tempta- your spouse. This option pays while careless. Here’s why. A completed tion for individual investors to do both are alive; when either dies, the and witnessed designation of benefi- this for themselves has only grown survivor will be paid for the rest of his ciary form (TSP-3), with rare excep- with the proliferation of new TSP or her life. tions, may override any designation of options. Beware of acting on im- 5. Be cautious about using beneficiary you have stated in your pulse or unreliable information. Re- your TSP to pay off mortgages. will. It is very important, therefore, member: the only thing we know for The desire to retire debt-free, with to periodically review your records to sure about the future is that it’s no mortgage payment, is certainly verify you have completed the form always uncertain. understandable — even commend- and, determine whether you need to 9. Attend a pre-retirement able. But taking a lump-sum with- cancel or change your designation. seminar. These critically important drawal at retirement to pay off your This is particularly important in meetings give you a better perspec- house could cost you tens of thou- the case of divorce, legal separation tive on federal retirement, as well as sands of dollars. Assuming a $50,000 or death of a family member. In addi- instruction, advice and the opportu- mortgage at retirement and a federal tion, if you have recently retired, you nity to ask your own questions about pension of $35,000, the adjusted may wish to complete a new designa- the financial matters that mean the gross income of the taxpayer is tion of beneficiary form and forward most to you personally. There is sim- $85,000 if you use your TSP to pay off it to the TSP Service Office in New ply no substitute for face-to-face the mortgage (the Internal Revenue Orleans. A new form will automati- interaction with the experts in this Service considers withdrawals from cally supercede any prior form you specialized field. the TSP to be taxable income). The may have submitted. 10. Stay informed. Your feder- difference of taxable income rates in If you do not have a completed al retirement is the single most this example is 10 percentage points beneficiary form on file, in the event important of your employment bene- (15 percent at $35,000 of income vs. of your death the proceeds will be fits by a long shot, so leave nothing to 25 percent of $85,000), costing the paid according to the government’s chance. Add www.tsp.gov to your taxpayer an additional $12,500 in “order of precedence,” which may online bookmarks and consult it fre- taxes that must come from some- not be your own preference. Why quently. I where. And the impact is compound- take a chance? ed as the amount needed to pay off 7. Don’t be too financially Steven Alan Honley, a Foreign the mortgage grows. So while the aggressive … or conservative. Service officer from 1985 to 1997, is allure of no mortgage payment is Easier said than done, you may be the editor of the Journal. This column strong, beware. thinking — and you’re right. But in has been adapted from “TSP: 8 6. Keep beneficiary designa- general, the closer you are to retire- Critical Mistakes” by Gary Melling tions current. This may seem like a ment, the more important it is to and David Melling, written for small detail, but it can have enormous avoid unnecessary risk in choosing FEDWeek (www.fedweek.com).

APRIL 2006/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 19

F OCUS ON L ATIN A MERICA

PRESSURE GROWS FOR CHANGE IN THE AMERICAS Elizabeth Lada

THE LEFT’S RECENT ADVANCES IN THE REGION COME EVEN AS MOST OF THE HEMISPHERE’S ECONOMIES ARE PERFORMING BETTER THAN THEY HAVE IN YEARS.

BY GEORGE GEDDA

espite two decades of democracy, political instability continues to haunt Latin America. In recent years, about a dozen elected presidents in the region have been forced from office amid widespread social unrest. In each case, constitutional succession procedures were followed. But the specter of one failed presiden- cy after anotherD suggests something is radically wrong, particularly in the Andes. In Ecuador, for example, three recent elected presidents have been ousted, recalling the fate of Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra, who won the presidency five times

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during the last century but only once completed a term in except the Salvadorans were withdrawn after a relatively office. short stay. No South American country volunteered Civilian coups have come to replace military coups as troops. the method of choice for unscheduled changes of govern- Closer to home, Washington’s policies have struck ment. This trend, while not as disreputable as a shift to Latin America as hypocritical, such as its promotion of a outright military rule, “remains both an indication of hemisphere free of trade barriers on the one hand while, democratic fragility and a threat to institutionalization of on the other, restricting access to U.S. markets for many democracy” in the region, says Susan Kaufman Purcell, of the region’s agricultural products. Another sore point director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the comes from the aid cuts Washington has imposed on at University of Miami. least a dozen Latin American countries that refuse to sign Peter Hakim, president of the Washington-based agreements guaranteeing to shield Americans from pros- Inter-American Dialogue, recently wrote in Foreign ecutions by the International Criminal Court. (The Bush Affairs magazine that several small and weak states in the administration has long opposed the court, fearing politi- Caribbean and Latin America are at risk of becoming per- cally-motivated prosecutions of Americans.) Finally, on manent centers of drug activity, money laundering and Cuba, there is unanimous opposition in Latin America to other criminal operations. “Stability,” he added, “is threat- the 44-year-old U.S. embargo. ened by the upsurge of crime and violence almost every- The good news for Washington is that, despite Castro, where in Latin America.” Chavez and Morales, there is little prospect that the Another noteworthy feature of the region is the rela- region as a whole will lurch very far leftward. Beyond tive absence of strong bonds of friendship for the that, the presence of left-of-center governments in a num- United States. Cuba’s Fidel Castro, the principal anti- ber of countries seems to reflect local conditions rather American voice in the region, now has allies in than external forces. Washington says it has no problem Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Bolivia’s Evo Morales. with left-leaning governments so long as they remain The three are, arguably, among the five most anti- faithful to democratic practices. It is the authoritarian American heads of government in the world, joining the democrats such as Chavez who are the most serious cause leaders of Iran and North Korea. Chavez and Morales for worry among U.S. officials. see the United States as the enemy and Cuba as a model for Latin America, although U.S. officials are hopeful The Need for Good Governance that Morales, who took office in January, will govern The advances on the left suggest Latin American vot- more moderately than his campaign rhetoric last year ers have been in an anti-status-quo mood in recent years. suggested he would. Curiously, the shift comes at a time when the economies The diminished regard for the United States is not lim- of the region are performing better than at any time in ited to a handful of radical leaders. In particular, the Iraq years. Russell Crandall, a Latin America expert at War is highly unpopular throughout Latin America. Davidson College, contrasts the situation now and the Many in the region were shocked by the revelations of one at the end of the 1980s, when the region completed American abuse of prisoners in Iraq and elsewhere, not- its transition to democracy from military rule. At that ing the sharp contrast with the American self-image as a time, it was dangerously close to economic implosion world leader in human rights protection. from hyperinflation, negative growth, high unemploy- To the extent that the region was willing to dispatch ment and crushing foreign debt payments, Davidson troops to Iraq in support of the U.S.-led coalition, all came writes in the winter edition of The National Interest. In from small, poor countries from Central America and the contrast, today’s Latin America is much healthier, with- Caribbean that are dependent on U.S. assistance. They out rampant inflation, uncontrolled fiscal profligacy and included the Dominican Republic, 300 troops; El other ailments that plagued it during the ‘lost decade’ of Salvador, 360; Honduras, 360; and Nicaragua, 120. All the 1980s. Still, sounder economic policies often have not trans- George Gedda, a frequent contributor to the Journal, lated into improved lives for ordinary people. Many are covers the State Department for The Associated Press. therefore seeking change, though not necessarily the rad-

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ical change advocated by Chavez Four years after Bush to assist microentrepreneurs. But and Morales. One leader often Morales’ election last December has described as leftist, but who has pur- launched his Millennium made U.S. approval of the project sued decidedly non-radical policies, somewhat doubtful. is Brazilian President Luis Inacio Challenge initiative, the At times, the State Department Lula da Silva. “Were Lula to shave can be quite blunt about the need his beard, he and his economic poli- only recipient countries for Latin American governments to cies would almost be indistinguish- do better. An example was the testi- able from his more neoliberal pre- in Latin America have mony of Charles S. Shapiro, a for- decessor, Fernando Henrique mer ambassador to Venezuela and Cardoso,” writes Davidson College’s been Honduras and now a top State Department Latin Crandall. Thomas Shannon, the America expert, in testimony last fall Oxford-educated career diplomat Nicaragua. before the House International who took over as head of the State Relations Subcommittee on the Department’s Bureau of Western Western Hemisphere. Hemisphere Affairs last September, says Lula’s economic He noted that polls of Latin Americans by and large views are basically in step with Washington’s own. show they don’t trust their governments and their institu- “Brazil under Lula,” Shannon observed in January, tions. “Survey numbers suggest that virtually all countries “has recognized the importance of the market, the impor- of the region have little or no confidence in their execu- tance of property rights and the importance of trade as tive, judiciary, legislature, political parties, armed forces or drivers of economic growth.” Chile, which has often in police.” the past two decades had the highest growth rates in Latin In many cases, he said, political elites exhibit aloofness America, follows the same policies, Shannon points out. toward the people they are supposed to serve, a situation Successive U.S. Secretaries of State have worried that is being exacerbated, he contended, by the legal about the durability of democracy in Latin America if gov- immunity often granted legislatures and the impunity ernments cannot do a better job of delivering social ser- afforded many other governmental and political actors. vices. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made the “The resultant mutual mistrust between voters and the need for good governance in the region the underlying government encourages corruption, as citizens resort to theme of her visit to Brazil, Colombia, Chile and El one of the few ways available to persuade government Salvador in April 2005. (Rice returned to Santiago this officials to actually work on their behalf — pay them past March to attend Chilean President Michelle Bache- directly,” Shapiro said. let’s inaguration.) Alvaro Vargas Llosa, a Peruvian political writer, says On a global level, President Bush’s Millennium elected governments in the region have yet to deal with Challenge Assistance fund is an attempt to induce gov- the legacy of authoritarian structures that he believes are ernments to embrace effective policies. When they responsible for persistent backwardness. meet certain good governance goals, they can be reward- “We’ve had basically a history of tremendous state ed with MCA funds. These criteria include creation of power, of authoritarianism, in the belief that authority market economies, promotion of free trade and an could solve people’s problems, and we basically dele- embrace of effective health and education policies — or, gated the responsibility for solving those problems to as State Department officials are prone to say, “investing those who held power,” Vargas Llosa said in a speech in people.” last year. Four years after Bush launched his Millennium “And the result of that has been, of course, that half of Challenge initiative, however, the only recipient countries the population in Latin America lives in poverty, and we in Latin America have been Honduras and Nicaragua. need to confront this myth head on, unless we want to They were awarded rural development grants worth a continue for the next few decades to live under the mis- combined total of $390 million in 2005. Under the previ- guided impression that the government is there to solve ous government, Bolivia applied for a $600 million grant people’s problems.”

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Some blame Latin America’s continuing economic and cept remains valid. The problem, they say, is often in its social distress on the United States, accusing Washington implementation. Properly carried out, the policies can help of foisting unwise policies on the region. Among other lift countries from poverty. “For the most part, they are steps, the United States joined with international lending motherhood and apple pie,” says John Williamson of the organizations in the early 1990s in making 10 recommen- Washington-based International Institute for Economics, dations comprising what is commonly known as the and an architect of the Washington Consensus. “Washington Consensus.” Its main themes included calls Hakim, the Inter-American Dialogue president, says for open markets, free trade and privatization. there are many reasons why Latin America lags behind. Most countries “are caught in a slow-growth trap, a con- The Washington Consensus: Still Valid? sequence of the region’s low educational standards, paltry U.S. support for privatization is based on the notion investment in technology and infrastructure, pitifully that the transfer of money-losing, state-owned firms to low rates of saving, derisory levels of tax collection and private hands can yield huge benefits if they are run effi- politically divisive inequalities.” Haiti, which has drifted ciently by their new proprietors. The results of privati- from one crisis to another over the past two decades, zation have been mixed. The poorest results have exemplifies the problem. occurred when privileged elites that buy these state enti- Not surprisingly, election outcomes in Latin America ties are granted monopoly control, thus perpetuating the in recent years reflect the broad discontent with those in inefficiencies and other drawbacks that the process was charge. In 1998, Venezuelans eager for change turned to supposed to resolve. Hugo Chavez, electing the former army officer and American officials say the “Washington Consensus” con- architect of a failed military coup in 1992. They reject-

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ed the parties that had led the country for 40 years. In “Hugo Chavez continues to define himself in opposition to Bolivia, Evo Morales gained prominence as leader of us. His efforts to concentrate power at home, his suspect the coca workers. He represents his country’s indige- relationship with destabilizing forces in the region and his nous majority. plans for arms purchases are causes of major concern.” Left and center-left governments dominate South Chavez has his own bill of particulars against the America. Only Colombia, Paraguay and Peru have con- United States, contending that Washington plans to servative governments — with Peru possibly poised to invade his country and backed a short-lived coup against make a radical leftward shift in presidential elections in his government in 2002 (on this point, the record is April. Ecuador is led by an interim government; its path ambiguous). He is also a staunch opponent of the pro- won’t be decided until elections on Oct. 15. One-time posed Free Trade Area of the Americas, the centerpiece U.S. nemesis Daniel Ortega, who ruled Nicaragua from of U.S. policy toward the region. Most Latin countries 1979 to 1990 and has lost three straight attempts to recap- support the proposal, but it remains stalled. Any such ture the presidency, is making a fourth bid this November. agreement would have to include a phasing-out of U.S. More important for U.S. interests is the July presidential agricultural subsidies, which prevent Brazil and other election in Mexico, where leftist candidate Andres countries with a strong agricultural base from gaining Manuel Lopez Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor who access to the American market. The United States is will- promises a better deal for the country’s poor, is among the ing to cut the subsidies, but only as part of a global agree- front-runners. The degree to which a Lopez Obrador ment in which European countries take parallel measures administration would take on an anti-American cast is to reduce their own subsidies. unclear. The United States believes that a free-trade zone extending from Alaska to Argentina would be a tonic for The Hugo Chavez “Problem” the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean — Chavez and Morales have made clear their opposition and for the American economy, as well. But Chavez and to U.S.-backed policies. After a meeting with Chavez in his allies believe the FTAA would only enrich multina- Caracas in early January, shortly after Bolivian voters tional corporations and would harm those in Latin elected him, Morales said he and his colleague were unit- America who are poor to begin with. Chavez celebrated ing in a “fight against neoliberalism and imperialism.” At when the January 2005 deadline passed with no resolution one point in his campaign for president last year, Morales to the stalemate. Nor is there any short-term prospect declared that “Western development is the development that the agreement will come to fruition. of death.” When violent anti-American demonstrators Colombia stands out as perhaps the most pro- filled the streets of Mar del Plata, Argentina, last Novem- American country in Latin America. President Alvaro ber during the fourth Summit of the Americas, Chavez Uribe is Washington’s favorite leader in the hemisphere, and Morales taunted Bush, a summit participant, by join- seen as a positive counterweight to unwelcome trends ing the protests. elsewhere in the Andes. As the State Department sees it, Chavez, having secured control over the Congress, the Uribe has greatly improved internal security since becom- courts and the National Election Commission, seems a ing president in 2002, and is considered likely to be re- shoo-in for re-election in December to another six-year elected in May. term. He describes himself as a “21st-century socialist.” Flush with oil money, Chavez also is attempting to forge a Squandered Opportunities broad anti-U.S. coalition in the region. “If he succeeds, Bush took office five years ago vowing to successfully that would present enormous problems,” says Michael conclude the FTAA and to give higher priority to Latin Shifter, a colleague of Hakim’s at the Inter-American America. At a hemispheric summit meeting in Quebec in Dialogue. April 2001, he proclaimed that the “Century of the The Bush administration has yet to find a formula for Americas” was at hand. Five months later, Secretary of countering Chavez. The State Department’s Shapiro says State Colin Powell traveled to Peru for a ceremony ratify- the United States has tried unsuccessfully to establish a ing the Inter-American Democratic Charter, a document normal working relationship with him. But, Shapiro says, that, in effect, enshrined democracy as the only legitimate

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system of government in the hemisphere. (The sole hold- President Bush has tried to revive immigration reform, out was Cuba, which dismisses electoral democracy as a calling for steps that would legalize some of the five mil- “multiparty farce.”) Before the ceremony in Lima, Powell lion Mexican aliens on U.S. soil. But he has run into was conferring on trade issues with Peruvian President strong congressional opposition; on Dec. 16, 2005, the Alejandro Toledo when he received word that terrorist U.S. House of Representatives approved a plan to build attacks had taken place at the World Trade Center and the hundreds of miles of border walls to keep illegal migrants Pentagon. He knew instantly that the world would never out. Many Mexicans were outraged. be the same. After attending the signing ceremony in One sometimes-overlooked feature of U.S. Mexican Lima and accepting condolences from his diplomatic col- relations is the degree to which Mexicans living in the leagues, he departed hastily on the long flight to United States help family members back home — Washington. sending an estimated $20 billion back across the border As his plane headed north, Powell left Latin America in 2005. For Latin America as whole, the remittance in more ways than one. The region quickly receded as a figure for all migrants, both legal and illegal, was $30 priority issue for the administration. There was too much billion that year, according to Don Terry of the Inter- to do on other fronts. American Development Bank. Terry calls remittances The war on terrorism also meant that an administra- a key to “financial democracy” in Latin America, but tion plan to reach an immigration agreement with that thesis is disputed by Dan Stein of the Federation Mexico fell off the radar screen. Instead, at U.S. insis- for American Immigration Reform, which advocates tence, enhancing border security came to dominate the strong measures against illegal migrants. Stein says it’s bilateral agenda. “highly questionable” whether the remittances sent to

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Latin America offset the loss of the region’s most produc- by former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill tive workers and the “lost opportunities for economic and Clinton, to recommend ways to rebuild U.S.-Latin political reform that might have occurred if the United American relations. States did not provide a constant safety valve for millions Phillip McLean, a former diplomat and a Latin of dissatisfied workers.” America expert at the Center for Strategic and Inter- As the world region least affected by terrorism, Latin national Studies, concurs that Washington should be Americans did not get caught up in the issue the way doing more for the region. He notes, “Latin Ameri- Americans did after the 9/11 attacks. Initially, there ca policy is always best when it ties into what’s on Latin was an outpouring of sympathy in the region for the America’s mind.” United States. But 18 months later came the invasion The Bush administration denies that it has neglected of Iraq, an event that rekindled longstanding hemi- Latin America, pointing to its aggressive pursuit of bilat- spheric concerns about American unilateralism. eral and regional trade agreements. These include the (According to a recent Zogby poll, an astonishing 86 Central America Free Trade Agreement, as well as percent of Latin Americans disapprove of Washington’s accords with the Dominican Republic and four Andean management of conflicts around the world.) Former countries. (A fifth nation, Chile, reached final agreement Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda says the with the United States on its own bilateral free trade Iraq War has “contributed to a wide, deep and proba- agreement in 2003.) Still, perhaps understandably, it is bly lasting collapse of sympathy for the United States” events to the east that command Washington’s attention in Latin America. Castañeda has urged Bush to these days, not the south. And that is a situation that may appoint a blue-ribbon, bipartisan commission, headed not change for some time. I

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BRAZIL: LATIN AMERICA’S SUPERPOWER? Elizabeth Lada

THE U.S. AND BRAZIL ARE FATED TO WORK FOR ACCOMMODATION, CERTAINLY IN THE HEMISPHERE AND PERHAPS IN THE BROADER INTERNATIONAL SPHERE.

BY MARK LORE

he late Vernon Walters, linguist and American diplomat extraordinaire, joked that “I used to worry about Brazil falling into the abyss — until one day I realized that it is bigger than the abyss!” The jest is amusing — and very Brazilian. But it encapsulates the perennial question as to the country’s future: does its size offer a promiseT of greatness, or will it act forever as a brake on the country’s development? Brazil’s size is indeed its defining characteristic. It is the fifth-largest country in the world in terms of size and pop-

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ulation. A larger territory than the Partly because of its struggles to curb human rights continental U.S., it occupies about abuses and environmental destruc- half of the land area of South dimensions, partly tion in the Brazilian outback. America and borders on every other country on the continent except because of its history, A “Real” Country Chile and Ecuador. Its economy is Many foreigners know Brazil best the 12th-largest in the world, surpass- culture and language, for its mass-marketed “fantasy indus- ing that of Russia. It is an agribusi- try” — its music, films, TV soap ness superpower, supplying half the Brazil is an anomaly in operas, plastic surgery and, of course, world’s soybeans, one-third of its the annual bacchanalia of Carnival oranges and ranking first in export of Latin America. week. The country’s show-biz pro- chicken parts, in addition to its more wess may even promote an unfair traditional dominance in sugar, coffee image of frivolity; the idea that and tobacco. At the same time, Brazil boasts pockets of “Brasil n’est pas un pays serieux,” in Charles de Gaulle’s relatively sophisticated industry; for example, it ranks famous line. This is a calumny that ignores the society’s fourth globally in production of civil aircraft, many of significant accomplishments in consequential areas — which are used by regional U.S. air carriers. such as its audacious and dramatically successful anti- Partly because of its dimensions, partly because of inflation plan of the early 1990s, its pioneering of deep- its history, culture and language, Brazil is an anomaly in water oil drilling technology, its success in combating Latin America. Portugal gave Brazil its language and HIV/AIDS, and its achievement of energy indepen- also the institutions of the Braganca monarchy and dence using sugar-based ethanol and new offshore oil legalized slavery, both of which endured until the end and gas exploration. of the 19th century. Portugal also bequeathed to Brazil One of the biggest Brazilian turnabouts in recent a more accommodative social and political style than years has been the country’s transformation from the that of Spain, helping to hold it together as Spanish poster child of the 1980s debt crisis to a stable and reli- America splintered. able player in the international financial system. The Lacking obvious mineral wealth — at least until the change took hold during the Fernando Henrique discovery of gold in the 18th century — Brazil evolved Cardoso administration of the late 1990s, but has con- as an essentially plantation economy. Lacking native tinued under Cardoso’s successor, Luis Inacio Lula da labor for these plantations, it imported huge numbers Silva. Despite his leftist roots, Lula has impressed the of African slaves from an early date, resulting in a pop- global financial community by maintaining — even ulation that is at least half of African descent and a cul- tightening — Cardoso’s fiscal and monetary policies. ture renowned for its African roots. Finally, as Brazil’s external position has become so strong that the Portugal’s resources ebbed, royal land grants came to government was able to pay off its $15 billion IMF loan be used as a means to administer the interior; this led last December, two years in advance of its due date. to a dispersion of authority which persists to this day. So if inventiveness, technical skill and external eco- That history helps to explain the central government’s nomic probity are not Brazil’s problems, what is? The pri- mary answer is the country’s weak political institutions. Mark Lore was a Foreign Service officer from 1965 to The country’s massive, often unresponsive bureaucracy, 1997. His overseas service was in South America, its dysfunctional political parties and sometimes irrespon- Africa and Europe, including a tour as deputy chief of sible legislature all render Brazil highly vulnerable to offi- mission and chargé d’affaires in Brasilia from 1992 to cial corruption and scandal — in turn disrupting progress 1995. His final assignment was as professor of strategy on the reform and development agenda. The follow-on and policy at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. effects, abroad and at home, are to undercut the Brazilian His current activities include serving as course chair government’s credibility, sour the investment climate and for the Brazil/Southern Cone region in the Area Studies threaten the stability of its currency (the real) on world division of the Foreign Service Institute. financial exchanges.

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The latest of these scandals has On broad geopolitical has not been directly linked to any proved particularly damaging. Dub- illegal acts so far, but the scandal has bed the “Mensalao” (roughly “The issues, the U.S. and cast into doubt his prospects for a Big Payoff”) when it erupted last year, second four-year term in national it has titillated Brazilians with allega- Brazil have always elections this October. tions of payments of as much as On the positive side, even with his $13,000 a month from top officers of been generally in step. political problems, Lula has man- the ruling Partido Trabalhador aged to keep control of the PT in the (Workers’ Party) to buy votes from hands of the moderate wing, main- members of Congress for pending legislation, and the air- taining intact his economic program. But the scandal has port detention of a PT official with $100,000 stuffed in his effectively stopped needed work on tax, social and labor underwear. Senior party leaders have been forced to reforms in the Congress. This is a serious blow. Despite resign. undeniable progress over the past 12 years, Brazil still The scandal has shaken the standing of the heretofore needs to implement a long list of reforms if it is to realize very popular Lula presidency and blown a huge hole in its potential and provide a better life for its poorer citi- what had been the party’s reputation for clean govern- zens. Its savings rate is too low, its real interest rates are ment. Public approval for Lula, the former metal work- too high, and basic health and education needs remain er, union leader and four-time presidential candidate, has underfunded. Far too many Brazilians continue to sub- sunk from a peak of 77 percent after his smashing elec- sist on a large, informal economy (estimated at about 40 toral victory in 2002 to around 50 percent. Lula himself percent of gross domestic product, according to some

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sources). Brazil’s infrastructure of As with all consequential tive bilateral, multilateral and ports, roads and railroads is anti- NGO-supported efforts between quated and in need of moderniza- nations, day-to-day the two countries’ environmental tion. Reform of the tax structure, communities. labor law and business regulation is dealings can be scratchy, A sometimes overlooked point essential if Brazil is to play its prop- of people-to-people contact con- er role in the global economy. complicated by a cerns what might be called the Above all, Brazil must tackle the sociology of race. Mindful of our grinding inequality of income that perception on the own mixed-race society, Ameri- allocates roughly 14 percent of cans, particularly African-Ameri- GDP to the richest 1 percent of the Brazilian side that the cans, have always been fascinated population — about the same by the Brazilian experience. From amount that goes to the poorest 50 U.S. does not take it as a common history, including the percent. Brazil’s “Gini Index” mea- importation of millions of Africans suring its relative income inequality seriously as it should. into slavery during the 17th, 18th has showed some improvement in and 19th centuries, the two soci- recent years, but is still generally eties evolved in ways that are both judged to be the worst in the world among major coun- singular and comparable. The myth of Brazil’s “racial tries. An open trade in drugs and arms in the slums of democracy” has collapsed in recent years in the face of Rio and other major cities has led to de facto loss of gov- damning statistics: black Brazilians still lag economical- ernment control in these areas; there is a pressing need ly at least a generation behind whites and experience for better-trained, better-paid law enforcement at the higher infant mortality and mistreatment at the hands local level. of the criminal justice system. As the United Nations Human Rights Commission has commented: “Brazil The American Connection lives in two worlds: it has a vibrant multicultural and Such problems in Latin America’s largest country multiracial street life, which is the image we get over- would seem to call for close and continuing U.S. engage- seas. But Afro-Brazilian and indigenous communities ment — and, indeed, Brazilian-American relations are are not part of the political, economic, social and media multifaceted and complex. American companies have a power structures.” considerable stake in the large Brazilian market; accord- Brazilian policy-makers largely accept such observa- ing to the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service, Brazil tions. In their search for solutions, they are willing to remains one of the three top locations in the world for look at some U.S. models; e.g., affirmative action pro- American foreign direct investment. Brazilian visitors grams in public universities and required teaching of are traveling to the United States, particularly Florida, in Afro-ethnic history in the public schools. One would unprecedented numbers and, despite some post-9/11 hope to see greater exchanges in this area in the com- restrictions, Brazilian students still come here in large ing years, whether of legal and educational experts or numbers to study. through greater African-American tourism to Brazil. There is constant scientific and technological inter- On broad geopolitical issues, the U.S. and Brazil change between our two societies: NASA satellites track have always been generally in step, as well. The two rain-forest burning and the agency cooperates closely nations were close allies in World War II and during with its Brazilian counterpart; the Centers for Disease much of the Cold War. Following the 9/11 attacks, the Control works with Brazilian and international bodies on Cardoso government took the lead in pressing the field testing and surveys of Brazilian populations; and Organization of American States to invoke the 1947 Rio there are frequent private and governmental exchanges Treaty, declaring the attacks as being against all nations in fields such as agronomy, biodiversity and energy. In of the hemisphere — an act of diplomatic solidarity addition, strong mutual interest in the Amazon’s rain for- much appreciated by the Bush administration. While est and biodiversity has spawned a plethora of construc- skeptical of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and critical of

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some aspects of the Bush adminis- Brazil has gone from Increasing Trade Flows tration’s war on terror, the Of course, as with all conse- Brazilians continue to cooperate being the poster child of quential nations, day-to-day deal- at the working level on potential ings can be scratchy. They are at terrorist threats in the hemi- the 1980s debt crisis to a times complicated by a perception sphere. on the Brazilian side that the U.S. Brasilia often prefers to exer- stable and reliable player does not take Brazil as seriously as cise its diplomacy in multilateral it should. This perceived asymme- forums, such as the OAS and the in the international try gnaws at the Brazilians, who ask U.N., where it usually works coop- why their officials and congression- eratively with Washington. In a financial system. al leaders visiting Washington dramatic reversal of past policy, sometimes have trouble arranging the country recently sent a 1,200- policy-level appointments in the man contingent to lead the U.N. Stabilization Mission executive branch or on Capitol Hill, when they provide in Haiti, showing a new will to assume international high-level access to U.S. government visitors and con- leadership (as well as, it must be said, boosting Brazil’s gressional delegations in Brasilia. In addition, there is a bid for permanent membership on the U.N. Security natural competition with the U.S. for hemispheric influ- Council). And a Brazilian general serves as comman- ence, most evident in recent years in the well-publicized der of the international peacekeeping force in Port-au- arm-wrestling between the two governments over the Prince. conduct and direction of negotiations to create a Free

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Trade Area of the Americas. Brazil remains one fields. At the same time, the Vene- In fact, trade negotiations, both zuelan/Bolivian connection is likely to multilateral and bilateral, represent of the three top prove highly problematic for MER- the fulcrum of the relationship. COSUR, already hobbled by trade Multilaterally, even as it sides with locations in the world tensions between Brazil and Argen- Washington’s position on European tina and other internal quarrels. Union agricultural subsidies, Brazil for American foreign seeks a reduction in U.S. agricultural Political Prospects supports, as well as the elimination of direct investment. What is the outlook for Brazilian- anti-dumping and other restrictions on American relations, both in the short products ranging from steel to cotton and the medium term? If President to orange juice to sugar. For now, though, both sides Lula can ride out the Mensalao scandal without being have agreed to give priority to Doha Round work on directly implicated, he may well remain the front-run- these issues, essentially putting the FTAA on the shelf. ner in this October’s presidential election. But even if Bilaterally, the challenge is finding a way to increase he wins, Lula will still have to face the prospect of deal- trade flows in both directions. U.S. sales to Brazil need ing with the fractious Brazilian Congress from what is to be a special focus — Brazil, with its 185 million res- likely to be a weakened personal and party base. In this idents, received only 1 percent of U.S. exports in 2004, situation, it is probable that Lula would strive to keep a level below that of much smaller entities such as U.S.-Brazilian relations on an even keel and preserve Taiwan, The Netherlands, Belgium and Hong Kong. his excellent personal relationship with President Bush. The long-term solution here is undoubtedly tied to eco- It is still early to handicap prospects for Lula’s chal- nomic growth and a widening of the Brazilian market. lengers. The Social Democrats — the party of former However, some short-term redress in areas of U.S. con- President Cardoso — have settled on a probable nomi- cern, such as patent/copyright protection, could also nee, Sao Paulo’s state governor, Geraldo Alckmin. improve north-to-south export prospects. Neither Alckmin nor any other potential candidate, most Other major bilateral issues include narcotics con- likely from the center-left, would be likely to present a trol (Brazil is a key transit country and has a significant significant ideological or policy problem for Washington. drug-use problem of its own) and space (a technology That being said, the next occupant of the Planalto Palace, safeguards agreement for the Alcantara space vehicle whoever it may be, will face growing popular pressure to launch site still awaits submission to the Brazilian jettison the tight-money policies of the past decade. And Congress). movement in this direction might cause a large hiccup (or In the region, Venezuela looms increasingly large as more) on world financial markets and risk a repeat of the an issue for both the U.S. and Brazil. Typically, Brasilia currency exchange crisis of 1999. has taken a more nuanced approach to dealing with In the long run, the U.S. and Brazil are fated to work Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez than has for accommodation — certainly in the hemisphere and Washington. The Brazilians are cool toward Chavez’s perhaps in the broader international sphere. In the autocratic rule at home and erratic forays abroad, but Americas, can the two countries eventually find the have opted for a strategy of greater engagement with means to exploit the complementarities in their societies him — a course that also suits Lula’s overall interest in and to develop what could be a combined market of 500 lessening Brazil’s dependence on the U.S. and Europe. million consumers? And in the wider world, will emerg- Currently, there is a move afoot to finalize Venezuela’s ing economic superpowers such as Brazil gain geopoliti- full entry into the MERCOSUR (MERCOSUL in cal influence? U.S. interests would seem to be served by Portuguese) Common Market. With the election of positive responses to both questions, for the two coun- Chavez ally Evo Morales as president of Bolivia, the tries’ common interests reinforce the case for sustained game has become even more complex — Brazil has sub- and serious engagement in the years to come. stantial investment in Bolivia’s natural-gas industry and Working together, Brazil and the U.S. will certainly be obtains a little less than half of its supply from Bolivian larger than the abyss. I

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COLOMBIA IS COMPLICATED Elizabeth Lada

COLOMBIANS DON’T FIND IT EASY TO DEFINE WHAT WENT WRONG IN THEIR COUNTRY, OR HOW AMERICA “ CAN HELP THEM RECTIFY IT. BY PHILLIP MCLEAN

s complicado,” is the common Colombian reply to a foreigner’s question, “why is your country so violent?” Without a doubt, the country remains both violent and complicated. Nonetheless, as 2006 came around, both President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, encouragedE by recent positive signs in Colombia, have taken to holding it up as an example of what can be done in other trouble spots around the world. There may indeed be lessons to be learned from the last five years of heavy U.S.

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involvement there, but Colombians Helping a country with two largest cities, Bogota and themselves don’t find it easy to Medellin. Extortion became com- define what went wrong or how to the history and size of mon, especially in small towns, on rectify it — or how America can help. farms and along the highways, where Thirty years ago, Colombia was a Colombia is a outlaws set up roadblocks, armed not star graduate of the Alliance for just with threatening weapons, but Progress, the initiative launched by formidable task, even also laptop computers loaded with President John F. Kennedy to pro- purloined official tax and financial mote growth and democracy in Latin under the best of records, to determine the ability of America. It had put together more passers-by to pay tribute. than a decade of healthy economic circumstances. expansion, new export opportunities Violence from the and had even, according to United Left and Right Nations figures at the time, achieved a modest closing of Worst of all, the central government’s ability to protect the income gap between rich and poor. Competitive, if citizens, never strong, seemed to be collapsing in the face still elite-dominated, politics had become the rule, and of a two-pronged attack. By the late 1990s, the FARC, an the two main leftist rebel groups — the Revolutionary old-line communist guerrilla band, had grown from a Armed Forces of Colombia and the National Liberation force of 7,000 to 18,000. For the first time in its four Army (known respectively, in English, as the FARC and decades of existence, it was not just overrunning police ELN) — were seen as diminishing threats. Colombia and military outposts and ambushing government was so sure of itself that in 1976, the talented economic patrols, but began defeating the army in set-piece battles. minister Rodrigo Botero called in the U.S. ambassador to For its part, the ELN — a product of 1960s-era universi- tell him his country no longer needed the still-substantial ty students’ enthusiasm for Fidel Castro and liberation assistance Washington was providing, and ordered the theology — was said to have as many as 5,000 fighters in closure of the USAID mission. the field. The group had come close to annihilation in But the picture had seriously darkened by 1999. The the late 1970s but was revived by pipeline-related extor- Colombian economy was in the middle of its first reces- tion, making headlines with regular bombings of the sion since the 1930s. Per-capita income dropped several Cañon-Covenas pipeline, important for the country’s oil years in a row, and half the population was classified as exports. In 2000 the government lost a third of its expect- poor. As the majority saw their access to health care and ed revenues from petroleum exports. education shrinking, the better-off found their security While these leftist rebels were showing off their threatened. The country recorded 2,500 kidnappings prowess and the government its vulnerability, a new form that year and murder rates climbed: more than 400 per of violence was emerging: organized rural militias to 100,000 inhabitants were killed in each of the country’s counter the guerrillas. These “paramilitaries,” as they were called, soon came to be responsible for some of the Phillip McLean, a Foreign Service officer from 1962 to bloodiest massacres in Colombia’s long history of civil 1994, served in Brazil, Panama, Bolivia, Colombia, Italy conflict. Teams of these “paras” would enter small vil- and the U.K. He was also deputy assistant secretary of lages, call out those they suspected of guerrilla sympa- State for South America, among other Washington assign- thies and assassinate them on the spot. It was unadulter- ments. After retirement from government service in 1994, ated terror, the most brutish form of counter-guerrilla McLean was appointed assistant secretary for manage- tactics. ment at the Organization of American States and served Most local and international human rights organiza- as an adviser to OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria tions have long believed that the paramilitaries were until 1997. He is now a senior associate at the Center for closely associated with the army. Many saw the events in Strategic and International Studies and an adjunct pro- Colombia as a direct replay of the depredations of death fessor in the Elliott School at The George Washington squads in El Salvador a decade earlier. Evidence does University. exist that a number of attacks received official aid, evi-

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dence that has been used in protract- In 1976, Colombia told of the country’s gross domestic prod- ed but still inconclusive legal actions uct, equivalent to what the govern- against cashiered officers. As the light the U.S. that it no ment was then spending on the of publicity has shone on these cases police and armed forces combined. and international pressure, especially longer needed its It was often remarked that for a from the United States, was brought country supposedly in the midst of a to bear, allegations of paramilitary- assistance and ordered nationwide civil conflict, Colombia army complicity have sharply drop- had a ridiculously small defense bud- ped, but the underlying problem of the closure of the get. But if police and private securi- paramilitarism remains. ty expenditures were included, that Yet consistently drawing a bright USAID mission. total was about average for Latin line between official law enforce- America. ment and citizen self-defense is diffi- Back in the mid-1980s, regional cult, because Colombians themselves so often mix the military commanders freely admitted that local cattlemen two. Colombia has a long tradition of allowing, and at were helping equip their underfunded units, boots and times promoting, private security arrangements. The all. Colombians also recall that the FARC began at the Colombian Ministry of Defense estimated in the mid- end of the turbulent period of the 1950s called “La 1990s that what citizens were spending for their own pro- Violencia” as a self-protection force set up by middle- tection (on bodyguards, property protection, security class campesinos in the southern department of Huila. companies and vigilante bands) amounted to 3.4 percent But the current version of paramilitarism is heavily influ-

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enced by its close connection with The current version of wealth across the political spec- narcotics trafficking, which, of trum. According to a recent esti- course, has made it a special con- paramilitarism is heavily mate by a local journalist, traffick- cern to the United States. ers affiliated with the various para- influenced by its close militaries account for 40 percent of The Narco Connection the drug trade and the FARC Some trace that connection back connection with narcotics accounts for another 40 percent. to the first such group, MAS In fact, the business is of such (Muerto a Secuestradores, Death to trafficking, making it a importance to both sides that there Kidnappers), set up in December have been frequent reports of their 1981 by the Medellin cartel to hunt special concern to the U.S. operatives cooperating on specific down the M-19, an urban guerrilla drug deals. That would work out to group that had kidnapped a sister of roughly $1 billion for each side. the cartel’s Ochoa clan. But most recent paramilitary But in general, the two sets of armed groups fight to leaders are products of the time when that cartel col- protect their respective spheres of influence, such as lapsed following the hunt for and killing of its most noto- prime coca cultivation zones. The Catatumbo, a former rious leader, Pablo Escobar, in 1993. Several members jungle reserve of the Montilliones Indians along the bor- set up their own drug operations in the corners of his der with Venezuela, for instance, has become a vast coca crumbling empire. Prominent among these was Diego plantation that was fought over by various paramilitary Murillo (better known as Don Berna), who was for a time groups, the FARC and even the ELN. Eventually, one of Escobar’s chief bodyguard; now in prison, he remains one the best-organized paramilitary organizations, led by of the most influential figures in the country’s drug trade Salvatore Mancuso, became the main enforcer of a kind and Medellin’s poor barrios. of rough peace among the coca growers there. In that and The Castaño brothers, Fidel and Carlos, broke from other cases, there was always the suspicion that Mancuso’s Escobar’s gang early on and participated in the effort to well-equipped units won with at least indirect help from run him down. By most accounts, they are now dead, but the army, which was actively fighting the guerrillas. in their last years of life sought to paint a picture of them- Human-rights activists have frequently observed that until selves as valiant guerrilla fighters who protected honest they raised their voices in protest, instances of Colombian rural people and only incidentally got involved in the nar- Army clashes with the paramilitaries were rare. cotics trade. After Fidel’s mysterious disappearance in The fiercest battles between the paramilitaries and 1996, Carlos announced the formation of the United the guerrillas have been over control of the best supply Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas routes to ship narcotics out of the country and bring de Colombia) and gained wide public attention as a armaments in. In 2002, the FARC dealt successive, seri- leader who linked private self-defense units around the ous defeats to the paramilitaries at Campamento in country into a significant national counter-guerrilla force. northern Antioquia and Bojaya in the Choco region. In These groups were indeed proliferating and gaining the latter fight, 200 innocent civilians lost their lives in the strength, often able to afford high-quality armaments and crossfire. hire retired police and military officers to do the training. But despite its name, the AUC was far from united. Unveiling Plan Colombia While some of its leaders were obtaining political power Colombia’s president during this period (1998-2002), in some localities, their main activity was crime: not just Andres Pastrana, tried to negotiate with the guerrillas, drug-running, but kidnapping, extortion and theft of but also took steps to strengthen his demoralized army gasoline supplies, a particular specialty of gangs along and reached out for foreign assistance. Put off by accu- the Magdelena River Valley. With all the competing sations of human rights violations, Europeans were at paramilitary interests, few were surprised when Carlos first slow to respond and, when they did, made clear that Castaño also “disappeared” in 2003. they would emphasize the needs of the country’s poor The narcotraffickers have been careful to spread the and not its security problem. But by 1999, the Clinton

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administration was becoming President Alvaro Uribe’s Thus, “Plan Colombia” was born in alarmed at the prospect that a coun- 1999 as a multilateral aid package try so close to the United States and approach, “democratic worth $7 billion over five years. Of so large might fail, and sought ways this, $2.5 billion came from the to stabilize it, whatever the compli- security,” means all United States, $1 billion from other cations. countries and the rest from Bogota. Helping a country with the his- citizens have a right to A third of the U.S. money, all of the tory and size of Colombia is a for- European funds and most of the midable task, even under the best be free from violence —- Colombian component went to of circumstances. It is as large as improve the efficiency of govern- the southern United States minus and a duty to help make ment and expand social programs. Florida, with three distinct Andean But from the beginning it was ranges and the vast, lightly-popu- their communities safer. understood that two-thirds of U.S. lated Amazon plains. It was often funding would be directed to the incorrectly said during this period police and armed forces, with much that the guerrillas controlled half the country. Perhaps of that used for helicopters and other aircraft to support the more accurate assertion is that to this day no one a large-scale aerial fumigation effort against coca and controls large stretches of the countryside, in part heroin poppies. because of the long tradition of weak government. While some in the U.S. Congress were happy that “the Complicating matters, the weakest instrument of the Clinton administration was finally getting serious about government is the judiciary, reflecting a sad national narcotics,” most critics in the United States and Europe record of lawlessness. Smuggling has a long history, with believed Plan Colombia was wrong-headed because it the emerald trade, for example, being a law unto itself. focused on drugs and not poverty and it gave aid to mili- Colombia has long been known to law enforcement offi- tary and police institutions accused of human rights vio- cials around the globe not just for various forms of nar- lations. In fact, the plan’s early efforts were largely dedi- cotics trafficking (first marijuana, then cocaine and hero- cated to vetting the units that would be trained and sup- in) but also as one of the world’s major currency counter- ported for human rights violations. Colombians, for their feiting centers. part, were grateful for the assistance but anxious to get Some analysts contend that Colombia is violent and started. lawless because it is poor, and point to economic assis- tance as the key. Sadly, nearly a quarter of the population A New Sheriff Comes to Town falls below the $2-a-day poverty line. But there is solid In 2002, Alvaro Uribe ran for president to succeed evidence that the strongest explanatory factor for pover- Andres Pastrana. An ambitious, highly goal-oriented for- ty in Colombia is the level of violence. The World Bank mer governor of the Antioquia department, he had twice estimates that if Colombia had just the rate of violence taken time out of his political career to study at Oxford that is average for Latin America as a whole, it would be and Harvard. His father had been murdered by the 50 percent richer. Two-and-a-half-million Colombians guerrillas, and as governor he promoted the then-legal are refugees in their own country. The Bank’s studies also community-protection organizations. Many deduced point to a close correlation between the rise of the nar- from that background that he was a conservative, though cotics trade, the rise of violence and the decline of eco- the views he exhibited in his rise through various elected nomic growth. and appointed government positions seemed to reflect While its goal was stabilizing a country just two hours the Liberal Party’s views. by air from Miami, the Clinton administration bought Colombians have historically chosen weak govern- the narcotics explanation of the country’s plight. ment over strong and, perhaps for that reason, have con- Pragmatically, it also calculated that it could only gain sistently sought negotiations rather than confrontation. congressional support for massive assistance to Colombia Following that tradition, the other candidates in the race by anchoring its assistance in counternarcotics programs. followed in Pastrana’s footsteps and continued to pro-

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mote peace talks with guerrillas and While President Bush and to have shrunk both organizations the AUC. But Uribe sensed that by a third. the country had changed, and was Secretary Rice rightly It is no wonder that Uribe is ready to take a hard line against vio- highly favored to win re-election in lent groups. Seeing his opening, he admire Colombia’s May. Colombia has a strong tradi- took it, winning by a healthy margin tion, and until last year a constitu- in 2002. achievements, the root tional prohibition, against allowing To Washington’s applause, Uribe a sitting president to run for re- quickly labeled his approach causes of violence have election. But with Uribe garnering “democratic security,” meaning all approval ratings of 70 percent or citizens have a right to be free from not yet been overcome. better ever since his election, the violence — and a duty to help make Congress and the courts bowed to their communities safer. He levied reality and let him run again. new taxes on the rich to pay for a stronger armed forces and police, and he promoted programs to encourage cit- Still on the Brink izen cooperation with authorities to better stop illegal Yet for all that success, Colombia remains a country armed groups. Both initiatives were controversial, but on the brink of crisis. The FARC may have shed some they have produced results. When the original Plan members and lost some to capture by the government, Colombia expired in 2004, President Bush continued to but is still capable of taking on and defeating govern- provide U.S. assistance on a year-to-year basis totaling ment forces in isolated skirmishes. Perhaps even more about $750 million annually, with some support given serious is the continuation of the underlying criminali- directly for military equipment, training and intelligence. ty that has haunted the country for so many years. It is only fair to note that the percentage of the total U.S. Many paramilitary soldiers may have turned in their aid package has shifted more toward economic and social arms, but the rural authoritarians who were at the heart assistance, and the United States has successively of the phenomenon still hold sway in many parts of the improved the unilateral trade preferences that have country — and their urban counterparts are the alter- helped stimulate Colombia’s non-traditional exports from native government in many poor neighborhoods. They flowers to manufacturing. But the central justification for aspire, as Pablo Escobar did before them, to a political U.S. assistance is still as it was in 1999: that constraining role, and that aspiration threatens Colombian democ- the narcotics trade will weaken Colombia’s illegal armed racy. bands and strengthen the country in every respect. It is A second Uribe administration (or that of his suc- a logic Uribe accepts, perhaps even more than most cessor) will have to make much more progress on gov- Americans. ernment reform, including the always-difficult job of Uribe’s government can claim some remarkable increasing the tax burden (now just 15 percent of achievements. In the first year of his presidency, violence GDP). The rule of law urgently needs to be further dropped sharply. Today kidnappings are a fraction of strengthened to give citizens faith in the justice system. what they were in 2002. The murder rates in Bogota and While narcotics control efforts have been impressive in Medellin are now lower than in Washington, D.C. scope — 120,000 hectares eradicated each year, more Health, education and pension programs still mostly than 200 tons of cocaine seized, more than 350 cartel favor the middle class, but are reaching more of the poor. leaders extradited to the United States — the impact of The economy has grown by more than 4 percent for those efforts on the availability of drugs in the United three years. Backed by foreign assistance, the judicial States has been small, as has been the effect on the system is reforming. The military is putting more pres- criminals themselves. And while President Bush and sure on all of the illegal armed groups. The major para- Secretary Rice rightly admire Colombia’s achieve- military groups are disbanding, a process unfolding under ments, the causes of violence — the flush demand for the loose supervision of the Organization of American narcotics trade from abroad and the enduring tradition of States. The surrender of FARC and ELN soldiers seems impunity at home — have not yet been overcome. I

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THE U.S. AND MEXICO: WHAT’S NEXT? Elizabeth Lada

WHOEVER HE IS, THE NEXT MEXICAN PRESIDENT WILL HAVE A KEEN APPRECIATION OF THE COMPLEXITY OF MANAGING THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP.

BY DEBORAH L. RINER

o matter who is elected president of Mexico on July 2, 2006, succeeding Vicente Fox (who is constitutionally limited to one six-year term), the country’s relationship with the United States won’t enjoy the auspicious beginning marked by the elections of Presidents Fox and George W. Bush in 2000. That is not necessar- ily bad, however.N The high expectations of six years ago about what personal affinities could accomplish in reconciling national agendas

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were soon dashed by political reali- Just as Mexico was not a spective center on border security ties including, but not limited to, the and stemming illegal immigration — 9/11 attacks. As a result, the next factor in the 2004 U.S. as shown by such ludicrous and Mexican president will have a more needlessly offensive proposals as the measured appreciation of the com- election, relations with construction of a 700-mile-long wall plexities involved in addressing the along parts of the border. Whether many thorny issues in the bilateral Washington aren’t a the Senate approves construction of relationship. the wall or not, the possibility has, That lesson points to four key focus in this year’s regrettably, already damaged the facts worth bearing in mind when relationship. analyzing U.S.-Mexican relations. presidential race. First, who is elected in July will, of The Importance of course, matter; but in the end, polit- Immigration ical and economic realities will severely limit what he can For Mexico, too, immigration is the top item on the accomplish. Second, personnel and policy changes at the bilateral agenda, as well as representing one of the few top of each government do not necessarily translate into issues that unite the country’s otherwise quarreling par- changes throughout the bureaucratic apparatus, where ties. But the Mexican focus is on protecting the rights of the critical day-to-day relations are handled. Third, just as its citizens in the U.S., legal or otherwise, not limiting relations with Mexico weren’t a factor in the 2004 U.S. their movement north, a policy known as “non-interven- presidential election, relations with Washington aren’t a tion.” That concern reflects the reality that migration is a focus in this year’s presidential race in Mexico. And social and political safety valve for Mexico, as well as a very fourth, the two countries have different priorities for the large and reliable source of foreign exchange. bilateral relationship. While precision is impossible, by most estimates there Although some trade disputes — sugar and trucking are at least seven million Mexican illegal immigrants in the being the most notable examples — periodically flare up U.S. (the Mexican government prefers the term “undocu- as high-profile irritants, they are no longer a defining issue mented workers”). There are entire villages in Mexico on the bilateral agenda, thanks to the success of the North whose male population is almost non-existent. The American Free Trade Agreement. Of course, protection money sent home by Mexicans working in the U.S., legal- of intellectual-property rights and regulation of markets ly and illegally, has become almost as important as petro- such as telecommunications (which, while open to foreign leum revenues, constituting the main source of revenue competition, still effectively enjoy a large measure of pro- for states such as Zacatecas and Michoacan. In 2000, tection) will continue to require diplomatic attention. according to Mexico’s central bank, those remittances Drug trafficking is another issue of concern for the U.S. totaled $7 billion; last year, they were nearly triple that But the really critical questions from Washington’s per- level, reaching $20.5 billion. Remittances have also helped to deliver macro-eco- Deborah L. Riner, editor of Mexletter, a monthly nomic stability, a sine qua non of sustainable growth. newsletter on Mexico, has been the chief economist of the (And, as any politician knows, economic growth translates American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico since 1993. into votes.) Not only has this income been the mainstay She holds a Ph.D. in political economy from Princeton of millions of families back home, it has also played an University, and has been a guest fellow at the Overseas important role in limiting the size of Mexico’s current Development Council in Washington, the Brookings account deficit, the trigger of the balance-of-payments Institution, the Royal Institute of International Affairs crises and economic instability that plagued the country (London), Universidad Catolica (Santiago), and the for the quarter-century prior to the election of President Center for the Study of the State and Economy (Buenos Fox in 2000. For example, in 2004 remittances totaled Aires). She has also held fellowships from the Social $17 billion; without them, the current account deficit Science Research Council and the Organization of would have been three times what it actually was and American States, among other institutions. equivalent to 3.6 percent of gross domestic product.

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This is not to say that Mexico’s Immigration is the top minister (a post he had held for next president will encourage his eight months) and began distancing compatriots to head north en masse. item on the bilateral himself from Fox. And in a sign of But the realities of labor markets in just how much politics has changed the U.S. and Mexico, combined with agenda for both in Mexico, that move helped the inability of the Mexican execu- Calderon wrest the nomination tive and legislature to work together countries, but for very from Creel. to address the obstacles to competi- In spite of that falling out, Mexi- tiveness (e.g., an inefficient energy different reasons. can foreign policy under a Calderon sector, an obstructive bureaucracy presidency would probably resem- and a flawed justice system), thereby ble that of the Fox administration. fostering job creation in Mexico, will ensure that illegal There would likely be different faces in the top positions immigration is an issue that won’t go away. So protecting of the Foreign Ministry, but the thrust of policy — a pri- the rights of Mexicans trying to get into or living illegally mary focus on the relationship with the U.S. and on efforts in the U.S. will remain politically popular. to improve it — would continue. It should certainly be possible to negotiate trade-offs That approach will not be tremendously popular in between the U.S. interest in tightening security and coop- Mexico. In a recent interview, Gabriel Guerra, a well- erating more closely on drug enforcement, and the known analyst and spokesman for former President Mexican interest in protecting the safety and rights of its Ernesto Zedillo, characterized Fox’s attack on Argentine citizens in the U.S. However, there are major obstacles. President Nestor Kirchner, and his defense of the Free Mexico prefers not to treat the different issues as related; Trade Area of the Americas (and of Washington), as “the worse, most Mexicans do not understand how complicat- consequence of a series of mistakes, inexperience and no ed the process is for the U.S. to change its immigration medium- and long-term strategy giving Latin America its policy, even when both houses of Congress and the presi- rightful place in policy.” Indeed, there is a widespread dency are controlled by the same party. That misconcep- consensus that while Fox’s tilt toward the U.S. and break tion may help to explain a monumental blunder early in with Cuba may have been justifiable, it happened too fast the Fox administration, when Mexico insisted on achiev- and too soon — and failed to secure a bilateral immigra- ing the “whole enchilada” in immigration-policy negotia- tion agreement. Thus, however sincerely Calderon might tions. It is not clear that the three main presidential can- believe that Mexico should look north, prudence dictates didates have learned that lesson, however. that his stance not be so enthusiastically pro-American. All that said, there are certainly significant differences Another incentive to hew closely to the country’s cur- among the three front-runners on foreign policy. For rent foreign policy is the fact that Calderon, whose politi- instance, they are likely to place different emphases on cal career has focused principally on his party and on the relations with Mexico’s southern neighbors, particularly legislature, has little first-hand knowledge of international Venezuela, Cuba, Argentina and Bolivia. And those cal- affairs. Nor has he developed a cadre of foreign-policy culations will inevitably affect how closely Mexico wants to experts, even as a significant number of professional identify its interests with those of the U.S. diplomats have been forced out of the Foreign Ministry by the present administration. This lack of expertise could The Candidate of Continuity: introduce unfortunate complications into the bilateral Felipe Calderon relationship. As recently as last summer, Mexican pollsters assumed that former Interior Minister Santiago Creel, not Felipe The Candidate of Change: Calderon, would be the presidential candidate of the Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador National Action Party, the most conservative of the three The Democratic Revolutionary Party’s presidential main parties. But after President Fox publicly chastised candidate is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. (He is gen- Calderon for using a rally to announce his interest in run- erally known as “AMLO,” more or less as many ning for the PAN’s nomination, he resigned as energy Americans refer to George W. Bush as “W” or “Dubya.”)

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A former mayor of Mexico City, Lopez Obrador sees the demonstrated a willingness to go for each others’ jugulars country’s foreign policy through the prism of domestic instead of closing ranks to fight the election. politics and in very traditional terms: “The foreign policy Nor would a President Lopez Obrador have a large we propose should be based on the strengthening of enough pool of experienced, qualified professionals with- domestic policy, cautious diplomacy and respect for the in the PRD on which to draw. (Former President Miguel principles of self-determination, non-intervention, peace- de la Madrid reportedly said in 1982 that, at a minimum, ful solution of conflicts, abolition of the threat or use of he needed 2,000 people he could trust in order to know force in international relations, equality of states, interna- what was going on in the government.) He would have to tional cooperation for development and the fight for inter- move outside his circle of loyalists to fill the key positions national peace and security.” of government: for a man reputed to place more empha- Lopez Obrador, like Institutional Revolutionary Party sis on personal loyalty than any other characteristic, that candidate Roberto Madrazo (see next section), hails from situation might be uncomfortable. Tabasco. The two presidential contenders, between Like Vicente Fox, Lopez Obrador has a reputation of whom no love is lost, have a long history. Both men made speaking out on issues before analyzing the implications of their careers in the PRI until Lopez Obrador left in 1989 what he says. If he were to decide that he did not approve to join the PRD, where he quickly rose to the top, thwart- of the way that Foreign Ministry bureaucrats were con- ing what would have been the fourth presidential bid of ducting some aspect of the relationship with Washington, the party’s founder and “moral leader,” Cuauhtemoc it is quite conceivable that he would announce a different, Cardenas Solorzano. But in doing so, he has created ene- not necessarily coherent policy on the spot. mies within a party whose factions have traditionally Under a Lopez Obrador presidency, Mexican foreign

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policy is likely to look south, align- Thanks to the success diplomats to smooth over the ing the country with the interests of inevitable rough edges in the bilat- Latin America and the developing of NAFTA, trade disputes eral relationship. world. On his personal Web page, Until former President Carlos the candidate attributes Mexico’s are no longer a Salinas tried to redefine “national turn to the north as motivated by sovereignty” in terms of economic “the illegitimacy of [former Presi- defining issue on the development, the PRI deftly play- dent] Carlos Salinas’ government, ed on public opposition to U.S. poli- which, when confronted by con- bilateral agenda. cies to reinforce its dominant posi- stant protests … led to a closer tion. So don’t expect Madrazo to alignment with policies promoted repeat Fox’s defense of the FTAA by the U.S. government.” He has more of an ideological during the Summit of the Americas; instead, he would let affinity with the thrust of the regimes in Argentina, the U.S. defend its own interests while he would work at Venezuela and Bolivia than either of his rivals for the strengthening Mexico’s ties with his counterparts in the presidency. hemisphere. Similarly, his foreign policy platform is a So don’t be surprised to see a President Lopez return to Mexico’s classic stance: “…our commitment to Obrador pictured more often with Nestor Kirchner, Hugo self-determination, non-intervention, peaceful solutions Chavez, Evo Morales or even Fidel Castro than with his to controversies, and outlawing the threat or use of force U.S. counterpart. (It is also worth noting that his English in international relations.” is not as fluent as that spoken by Mexico’s recent presi- To be sure, the Fox administration has voiced its dis- dents.) This is not to say that he is another Chavez, seek- pleasure with certain U.S. actions, but under Madrazo, ing opportunities for confrontations with Washington, or both the substance and the tone in which it would be that the cooperation manifested in the daily details of the conveyed would become much more strident. So issues bilateral relationship would cease. But it is likely that the like building a wall along the border and encroaching on tone of the relationship would change to one of greater Mexican territory without permission to repair it would distance, reflecting skepticism that U.S. and Mexican become higher-profile irritants than they are now. interests are complementary. Professional diplomats would be charged with repairing For instance, Lopez Obrador has consistently the damage wrought by more acrid public exchanges. expressed his dissatisfaction with some provisions of Under Madrazo, NAFTA itself would not be an issue NAFTA, such as its agricultural clauses. Reopening nego- on the bilateral agenda. He is well aware that the bilater- tiations in the present environment, when the American al relationship has deepened as commercial relations public and many of its elected representatives hold an between the two countries have strengthened, and increasingly unfavorable opinion of NAFTA due to job Mexican administrations have come to believe that their losses, would introduce another stressor into the bilateral country has much more to gain than to lose from closer relationship and further complicate U.S. efforts to imple- integration and cooperation. But look for a Madrazo ment the FTAA. administration to exploit skillfully the historical emphasis on distance and opposition in the relationship even while In the Middle: Roberto Madrazo developing more areas of cooperation. For instance, it is Until Fox’s election, the Institutional Revolutionary conceivable that he would use trade barriers to benefit Party had held power continuously for seven decades. constituencies he wanted to reward or needed to heed — So it was hardly surprising that affiliation with the PRI rather like the U.S. interpretation of NAFTA’s trucking did not hurt the careers of professional Mexican diplo- provisions. mats. Should PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo be elect- Still, whatever his rhetorical thrust, a President ed, he will likely follow the tradition of rewarding promi- Madrazo would be very careful not to let words stand in nent party figures with desirable ambassadorships, while the way of Mexico’s real interests, which reside in its rela- supporting them by naming career officials sympathetic tionship with its northern neighbor. But whereas a Lopez to the PRI to key positions. This will allow experienced Obrador-led government would give greater emphasis to

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Latin America, especially regimes that share his views on on a daily level. There will be the occasional high-level “neoliberal economics,” Madrazo’s foreign policy would dust-up, followed by a return to more or less cordial rela- revert to the more traditional posture of turning to tions. Relations with the U.S. would almost certainly be Europe to counterbalance the importance of the U.S. generally cooler if Lopez Obrador wins, while under Madrazo, relations are likely to be much more volatile. The Honeymoon Is Over Although Calderon will probably make more of an effort No matter who is elected in July, the honeymoon in than either of the others to keep Mexico’s relations with the bilateral relationship that started five years ago is the U.S. on an even keel, there’s a limited amount he can already over. U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Antonio Garza do, given the different emphases in the two countries’ is more frequently presenting notes to the Mexican gov- agendas. ernment and publicly voicing U.S. unhappiness with Meanwhile, the present U.S. political configuration Mexico’s perceived lack of commitment to fighting drug does not seem capable of producing immigration legisla- trafficking and controlling drug-related violence on the tion that meets Mexican expectations — an obstacle to border. He has even gone so far as to close temporarily reaching a hemispheric security or trade agreement. the U.S. consulate in Nuevo Laredo. And Washington’s With or without a wall, the contributions of undocu- official response to protests about the proposed wall is mented workers to both the U.S. and the Mexican that Mexico is not respecting America’s right to protect economies will continue to grow more important. our borders. Mexican workers will continue to help fill the jobs that Still, whoever assumes office on Dec. 1, the bilateral need to be done in the U.S. and send money home to relationship will continue to function relatively smoothly support their families in Mexico. I HomeHome SuiteSuite HomeHome

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APRIL 2006/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 45

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SENSING SENSIBILITY IN THE FALKLAND ISLANDS Elizabeth Lada

TODAY’S FALKLAND ISLANDERS — VISIBLY PROSPEROUS, WIRED AND WELL EDUCATED — STAND ON THE FRINGE “ OF GLOBALIZATION. WHAT LIES AHEAD? BY JIM DORSCHNER

he future of the Falkland Islands clearly lies in South America,” states Julian Morris, a Londoner on a three-year contract as general manager of the Falkland Islands Development Corporation, part of the colony’s government. Since 1985 the FIDC has disbursed over $60 million to assist more than 150 business startups and initiatives suchT as the 60 wind generators installed throughout the islands. The tall, ruddy 42-year-old looks pensively across his spacious new second-floor office, which offers magnificent views

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over Stanley Harbor, his naturally warm face displaying After gaining independence from Spain in 1816, concern for the implications of this reference to the con- Argentina claimed all previously associated colonial terri- tinent four hundred miles to the west. Among many tories — including Las Malvinas (the name comes from islanders, lingering trauma from Argentina’s 1982 invasion the French Malouins, a name for the Corsairs of Saint- and occupation of the islands reinforces a compulsion to Malo, whence came the first colonists to settle under de remain isolated, to stick with the safe 8,000-mile link back Bougainville). In 1826 Argentine civilian Louis Vernet to Mother Britain. established a small colony, finally eliciting a reaction from But the young, globally-connected demographic of the Britain in 1833, when warships forced the Argentines to Falklands is comfortable with another South America. leave and London effectively reclaimed full sovereignty Every Saturday a LAN Chile Airbus brings in a belly-full under the 1770 agreement with Spain. Britain has peace- of freight, including retail goods and fresh fruit. The fully governed and populated the islands ever since. plane carries islanders out to Punta Arenas (in Chilean Argentina believes it holds uninterrupted sovereignty Patagonia), and on to bustling Santiago for shopping and dating back to 1816, making Britain’s 1833 “invasion and medical appointments, and for business meetings con- occupation” illegal, and asserts that Argentina was simply ducted with personal digital assistants and laptops. “recovering” national territory in 1982. Britain maintains Today’s Falkland Islanders — visibly prosperous, wired that the Falklands are British. This claim is reinforced by and well educated, with the possibility of oil looming off- continuous occupation since 1833 and, most importantly, shore — stand at a quirky edge of globalization, a critical the fact that the islands’ population is British. Britain juncture that oddly mirrors what the rest of the world is insists that “sovereignty is not negotiable,” while Argen- facing, with the same shades of uncertainty and promise. tina will not negotiate unless sovereignty is on the table. Argentine President Nestor Kirchner rekindled tensions Disputed History in 2003 by publicly vowing that the Malvinas will once The Falklands’ history is an ambiguous chronology of again be part of Argentina, following up by economically claims and counterclaims. The islands were uninhabited squeezing the islands. when sighted by European explorers in the 1500s. The Behind these diplomatic positions are serious issues of British landed first, in 1690, though the first settlement control over important South Atlantic resources, which was established on East Falkland in 1764 by the French Falkland Islanders regard as vital to “self-determination.” explorer Antoine de Bougainville. Unaware of the French activity, British Captain John McBride set up a competing 21st-Century Islanders colony on West Falkland in 1766. Some 2,370 civilians live in this British overseas terri- Shortly thereafter, de Bougainville sold out to the tory the size of Connecticut, situated 400 miles east of Spanish, who appointed a governor under the captain- Argentina and 850 miles north of the Antarctic Circle. general of Buenos Aires. In 1770, a Spanish military expe- Ninety-four percent claim British descent, and 80 percent dition dislodged the British, sparking negotiations that trace their roots to mid-1800s immigration. Others are resulted in Madrid agreeing to London’s return. Four long-term temporary residents; nearly 150 “Saints” from years later, Britain abandoned the islands, leaving behind the British South Atlantic island of St. Helena, and about a plaque claiming continued sovereignty. Spain followed 100 Chileans. The capital, Stanley on East Falkland, is suit, pulling out in 1811, leaving the islands unoccupied. home to 1,989 people; the rest are in “Camp” (a Falklands term derived from the Spanish campo, meaning country- Jim Dorschner is the spouse of FSO Sonya Tsiros, side). Another 1,700 military personnel and civilian con- assigned to Embassy Bucharest. He is a correspondent for tractors serve at the Mount Pleasant Military Complex 35 Jane’s Defense Weekly, and a principal contributor to miles west of Stanley. Jane’s Sentinel. His work has also appeared in Armed Today’s islanders are surprisingly young, connected Forces Journal, U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings and and entrepreneurial. Access to the Internet and satellite Military History Quarterly. He retired from the U.S. TV is universal, even in Camp. Children abound and a Army in 2004 and has lived for more than 22 years out- new wing added to the junior school in Stanley is already side the United States in Europe, Asia and Latin America. too small because of higher-than-average birth rates.

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After attending small settlement schools, Camp kids join A LAN Chile request for an additional weekly flight their Stanley brethren in the junior school, boarding in the through Argentina was denied, with the aviation authority hostel or with family. Everyone goes on to the new com- in Buenos Aires citing strong pressure from “the very top munity school built in 1992. At 16, qualified students are of the government.” Likewise, a major international ship- fully funded by the Falkland Islands government to attend ping line agreed to link the islands to South American boarding school in Britain. container terminals, only to have the Argentine Foreign The government also funds vocational, university and Office threaten “spontaneous” industrial action in graduate education. The first islander physician recently Argentine ports. Since these efforts of Argentina to inter- graduated in the U.K. and returned to work at the hospi- fere with the Falklands’ economy in 2004 and early 2005, tal, where one operating room nurse is also an islander. there have been no new initiatives as islanders await a sig- While the rate of return after education abroad is 65 per- nal that Argentina is prepared to cooperate. cent, a labor shortage necessitates the importation of Lack of access to South America seriously undermines workers from St. Helena and Chile. Most residents have the economy. A 20-foot refrigerated meat container costs multiple jobs, and 14 percent of taxpayers run small busi- $9,000 to ship to the U.K. on ships available only about nesses. every two months. The same container could go directly Tim Miller is thin and 50-something, soft-spoken, with to a South American hub for onward shipment anywhere receding blondish-red hair over thick eyebrows, rosy in the world for about $2,500. cheeks and a perpetual grin. His rough hands testify to years as a sheep farmer on West Falkland, where he was From “Sheepocracy” to Self-Determination accidentally bombed by a British jet during the war Before 1982, the Falkland Islands Company, a royal and lost an eye. Afterwards, Miller established Stanley charter since 1852, owned most of the 30 enormous farms Growers with the help of a hydroponics farming expert and controlled every aspect of commercial activity. brought in from the U.K., and eventually built it into a Councilor Richard Cockwell calls this period the “sheep- thriving business that includes outdoor furniture and gar- ocracy.” He ought to know, having been the last farm dening supplies. Stanley Growers is the principal produce manager at Fox Bay in West Falkland, before it was pur- vendor in the islands, with a large organic nursery pro- chased by the government after the war and split into ducing tomatoes, lettuce, peppers and other vegetables family-size plots. Managers were the elite of Falklands for sale locally and to cruise ships. society, living in large homes, hobnobbing with the gover- Miller does extensive business in Chile, importing nor, and able to travel off the islands and educate their fresh fruit and other goods via the weekly LAN flight and children. Until the 1950s, most islanders had little access via ship, and has been badly hurt by Argentine efforts to to education, under the premise that expanded horizons squeeze the economy. He could easily sell more, but the would tempt them to leave, thereby denuding the sheep capacity and frequency of transport from Chile are insuf- farms of labor. ficient. He is clearly frustrated. In another blow, Stanley In this static, isolated society, principal settlements Growers and other businesses suffered significant losses such as Goose Green on East Falkland and Port Howard when some cruise ship visits were canceled after and Fox Boy on West Falkland provided basic health ser- Argentina refused transit permission for passenger vices and a simple school, but were dominated by shear- exchange charter flights. ing sheds, large structures for the seasonal shearing of Besides the weekly LAN flight from Chile, the only thousands of sheep. There were virtually no roads outside other air link is a weekly service from the U.K. provided of Stanley, leaving Camp reliant on intra-islands steamers by Britain’s Royal Air Force. Both flights use the airbase and horses until 1948, when the Falkland Islands at Mount Pleasant. Sea links are no better. There is a Government Air Service introduced light bush planes. (A general cargo ship every six weeks from Chilean network of all-weather tracks now links nearly every cor- Patagonia, 1,500 miles south of Chile’s main container ner of the islands.) Prior to 1971, the Falklands were only port of Valparaiso, plus five chartered sailings a year from accessible by four cargo ships a year from Britain and a the U.K. and some commercial space aboard military monthly ship to Montevideo. That year a communica- charters. tions agreement between Britain and Argentina intro-

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duced shipping links that lasted until 1982, along with the renowned purity of Falklands’ herds, kept isolated from first external air links, operated by the Argentine military disease and pests and fed on the open range. Commercial airline LADE. mussel production at Darwin is generating a lot of inter- “Things were pretty grim, really, before 1982,” est in aquaculture and exploratory gold mining is under- Richard Cockwell admits. “The place was in decline. way near Mount Usborne, but tourism is the most likely People were streaming out and there wasn’t much hope. industry to supplant the sheep wool economy. Some Not everyone realized it, but the feeling was there.” 50,000 cruise-ship passengers visited last year, along with Now, under the 1985 Falkland Islands Constitution, over a thousand others arriving by air. citizens elect eight councilors every four years. Every year An idea gaining momentum is to convert a significant the councilors elect three of their number to serve on the portion of lands now devoted to sheep into national parks Executive Council alongside four appointed officials, all serviced by additional guest lodges similar to those now presided over by the appointed governor, a senior British operating at Sea Lion Island, Pebble Island and Port diplomat. The current governor, Howard Pearce, came to Howard. These spots offer visitors incredible wildlife, the Falklands after three years as high commissioner to horseback riding, hiking, kayaking, trout fishing, scenic Malta. Tall and broad in an immaculate dark pinstripe boat trips and air tours among some of the most unspoiled suit, he looks much younger than his 56 years while relax- natural beauty in the world. The problem is how to pay ing in an easy chair over coffee in his sunlit office at for it as revenue from fishing declines. Government House. A self-proclaimed “Falklands fanat- Offshore oil is the gorilla in the room. Six promising ic,” he clearly enjoys his role and is committed to progress, exploratory wells were drilled in the North Falkland Basin even as he describes the job as “schizophrenic.” The gov- in 1998, with good prospects for further drilling. In 2002 ernor is caught in the middle, required to simultaneously a large area of the South Falkland Basin was licensed to represent local views and desires to London and transmit Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd., known as FOGL, a joint ven- London’s views and desires back to them. ture among Global Petroleum, Hardman Resources and Other than defense needs, the Falklands have not cost the Falkland Islands Corporation, with the support of the British taxpayers anything since 1986. In 2004, for exam- government. A recent seismic survey identified possible ple, the islands enjoyed a comfortable GDP of $133 mil- recoverable reserves in excess of 200 million barrels. lion. A postwar transformation was paid for by the sale of More drilling is expected in 2007, with full-scale produc- licenses for commercial fishing inside the internationally tion likely by 2010. According to estimates by indepen- recognized Falklands Conservation Zone. Until a recent dent consultants, the FOGL license area may contain up decline in Ilex squid, licensing and logistical support to to 1,250 billion barrels of oil, roughly equivalent to the oil fishing fleets earned about $55 million annually. Tourism content of the declining North Sea Gas Basin and Central brings in another $7.5 million a year from cruise ships and Graben fields combined. “land tourists,” who fly in to enjoy the spectacular scenery Islanders express little joy and almost-universal con- and wildlife and some of the best trout fishing in the cern over the potential effects of oil. Economic viability world. Agriculture accounts for another $5.8 million a and political “self-determination” will be enhanced as oil year, which still means wool sheep. revenues and associated infrastructure improvements facilitate long-term diversification, particularly the sup- Options for Revitalization planting of wool sheep with tourism, organic meat and After 1982 the population in Camp finally stabilized at aquaculture, but at unknown risk to the fragile environ- around 400, though the average age is alarmingly high, ment and social fabric. Hopefully, operations can be kept with many farmers in their 60s or older. Today there are largely offshore, with a limited and temporary footprint on 580,000 sheep in the Falklands on 88 farms, and land, but everyone knows oil will change the islands as Falklands wool is considered among the finest in the much or more than did the 1982 war. world. But younger islanders have largely lost interest in putting in the long, grueling hours for low financial return. Overcoming the Past Options under consideration to revitalize Camp That watershed for the Falklands is increasingly include switching from wool to organic meat, based on the viewed as part of the past. As Prof. Carlos Escude of the

APRIL 2006/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 49

FSJ ’s Guide to Extended Stay Housing Go to www.fsjournal.org: CLICK on Marketplace, CLICK on Extended Stay Housing (with Foreign Service Clause information)

1

Property & eb Address elephone T Amenities W Location Housekeeping FS Clause Ad Page

Accommodations 4 U (843) 397-5714 DC, MD, VA, CC, FC, HSI, SP, TC Daily/ Yes 53 www.accommodations4u.net nationwide weekly Arlington Residence Court (703) 524-4000 VA BC, CB, CC, HSI Daily Yes 2 www.arlingtonresidencecourthotel.com BridgeStreet Worldwide (703) 208-9110 DC, MD, VA Varies Bi-weekly Yes 57 www.bridgestreet.com Corporate Apartments Specialists (703) 979-2830 DC, MD, VA BC, CC, CS, FC, HSI, PG, Optional Yes 26 www.corporateapartments.com (800) 914-2802 RD, SP, WD Crimson Temporary Housing (202) 986-0433 DC, MD, VA Varies Optional Yes 9 www.crimsonworldwide.com (888) 233-7759 Executive Lodging Alternatives (703) 354-4070 VA Varies Optional Yes 59 None Georgetown Suites (202) 298-7800 DC CC, FC, HSI Daily Yes 45 www.georgetownsuites.com Hawthorn Suites (703) 370-1000 VA BC, CB, CC, DC, FC, HSI, Daily 35 www.hawthorn.com (800) 527-1133 PG, RD, SP, TC Korman Communities (202) 904-2500 DC CB, CC, FC, HSI, RD Weekly 65 www.kormancommunities.com (866) 567-6264 Oakwood (703) 488-6837 DC, MD, VA CC, FC, HSI, PG, SP, TC Weekly Inside www.oakwood.com (888) 998-3265 front Remington (202) 223-4512 DC Varies Weekly 51 www.remington-dc.com (800) 225-3847 State Plaza Hotel (202) 861-8200 DC HSI Daily Yes 42 www.stateplaza.com (800) 424-2859 Staybridge Suites (703) 448-5400 VA BC, CB, FC, HR, HSI, SP Daily Yes 23 www.staybridgemclean.com (800) 238-8000 SuiteAmerica (703) 461-1932 DC, MD, VA Varies Weekly Yes 69 www.suiteamerica.com (877) 827-8483 Virginian Suites (703) 522-9600 VA CC, FC, HSI, PG, SP Daily 63 www.virginiansuites.com

(1) BC--business center, CB--continental breakfast, CC--conference center, CS--concierge service, DC--day care, FC--fitness center, HSI--High Speed Internet, PG--playground, RD--roof deck, SP--pool, TC--tennis courts (2) GS--garden style, HR--high rise, LR--low rise, TH--town homes

While in long-term training at FSI, you may claim up to 100 percent of daily per diem for the first 60 days. This amount is reduced to 50 percent from day 61 to day 120, and to 25 percent thereafter. The reduction applies to both the lodging and Meals & Incidental Expenses portions of per diem. This is a complicated calculation for 2006, because the General Services Administration has determined that per diem for the D.C. area (which includes Arlington and the Northern Virginia suburbs) will change seasonally. While M&IE remains $64 throughout the fiscal year, the lodging portion is $187 from Jan. 1-31 (total $251), $180 from Feb.1-June 30 (Total $244), $150 from July 1-Aug. 31 (total $214), and $192 from Sept. 1-30 (total $256). We do not have rates for FY 2007 yet. — James Yorke AFSA Labor Management Specialist

CONTINUED ON PAGE 52

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Universidad Torcuato di Tella in Buenos Aires observes of the Argentine side: “It is sufficient to talk to any Buenos Aires cabdriver to understand that the Argentine people know that the Falkland Islands will not be ‘recovered’ by Argentina. The only locals who appear not to under- stand this basic fact of life are a group of war veterans, a small bunch of nationalist fundamentalists and prac- tically the entire lot of Argentine politicians.” The downtown Stanley waterfront reflects the prosperity that has transformed the Still, the bleak Argentine war Falkland Islands since the 1982 war with Argentina. cemetery near Darwin is incredibly poignant. Out of sight from the nearby main gravel road Malvinas. The cemetery is there only because the first to MPA and Stanley, 260 plain white crosses, each hung major casualties of the land war occurred nearby during with a powder blue plastic rosary, represent young the Goose Green battle. Seventeen British paratroopers Argentines — all of whom died tragically, and many hero- and 55 Argentines were killed, and afterward the farm ically, for the junta’s misguided scheme to recover the manager selected the site to bury them.

THE REMINGTON

APRIL 2006/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 51 FSJ ’s Guide to Extended Stay Housing Go to www.fsjournal.org: CLICK on Marketplace, CLICK on Extended Stay Housing (with Foreign Service Clause information)

2 Property & Accepts Pets Minimum Stay E-mail Address Number of Bedrooms Style Distance to State Ad Page

Accommodations 4 U Deposit 1 day Studio, 1, 2 Bedrooms GS, HR, Varies 53 [email protected] & fee LR

Arlington Residence Court Yes 1 day Efficiency, 1, 2, 3 HR 2 miles 2 [email protected] Bedrooms

BridgeStreet Worldwide Varies 1 day Studio, 1, 2, 3 Varies Varies 57 [email protected] Bedrooms

Corporate Apartments Specialists Yes 30 days Studio, 1, 2, 3 GS, HR, Varies 26 [email protected] Bedrooms TH

Crimson Temporary Housing Yes 1 day Studio, Efficiency, Varies Varies 9 [email protected] 1, 2, 3, 4 Bedrooms

Executive Lodging Alternatives Yes 30 days 1, 2, 3, 4 Bedrooms GS, HR, 3-5 miles 59 [email protected] TH

Georgetown Suites No 1 day 1, 2 Bedrooms LR 15-min. 45 [email protected] walk Hawthorn Suites Yes 1 day Studio, 1, 2 Bedrooms HR 3 miles 35 [email protected] w/ deposit

Korman Communities No 30 days 1, 2 Bedrooms HR 8 blocks 65 [email protected]

Oakwood Varies 30 days 1, 2, 3 Bedrooms GS, HR, Varies Inside [email protected] TH front

Remington Yes 1 day 1 Bedroom HR 2 blocks 51 [email protected] w/ deposit

State Plaza Hotel No 1 day 1 Bedroom HR Across 42 [email protected] street Staybridge Suites Yes 1 day Studio, 1, 2 LR 14 miles 23 [email protected] Bedroom/2 Bath

SuiteAmerica Limited 3 days 1, 2, 3, Bedrooms HR, LR 1.5 miles+ 69 [email protected] w/ fee

Virginian Suites No 1 day Efficiency, HR 1.5 miles 63 [email protected] 1 Bedroom

(1) BC--business center, CB--continental breakfast, CC--conference center, CS--concierge service, DC--day care, FC--fitness center, HSI--High Speed Internet, PG--playground, RD--roof deck, SP--pool, TC--tennis courts (2) GS--garden style, HR--high rise, LR--low rise, TH--town homes

While in long-term training at FSI, you may claim up to 100 percent of daily per diem for the first 60 days. This amount is reduced to 50 percent from day 61 to day 120, and to 25 percent thereafter. The reduction applies to both the lodging and Meals & Incidental Expenses portions of per diem. This is a complicated calculation for 2006, because the General Services Administration has determined that per diem for the D.C. area (which includes Arlington and the Northern Virginia suburbs) will change seasonally. While M&IE remains $64 throughout the fiscal year, the lodging portion is $187 from Jan. 1-31 (total $251), $180 from Feb.1-June 30 (Total $244), $150 from July 1-Aug. 31 (total $214), and $192 from Sept. 1-30 (total $256). We do not have rates for FY 2007 yet. — James Yorke AFSA Labor Management Specialist

CONTINUED FROM PAGE 50

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After successfully regaining the islands, the British decided to consolidate the Argentine dead at Darwin. They wanted to send them home for burial, but Argentine authorities insisted on the soil of the Malvinas. Small groups of relatives have visited since the 1990s, and the weekly LAN flight from Chile now stops once a month in Argentine Patagonia as a principal link for family members. A group of directors of the association which repre- sents families, the Comision de Familiares de Caidos en Malvinas e Islas del Atlantico Sur, visited the islands in March 2005 to examine the cemetery and a new memor- Darwin Cemetery holds 260 young Argentines killed on the Falklands, mostly conscripts from the classes of 1962 and 1963. ial. They also met with Governor Pearce, Falklands coun- They all died tragically and many of them heroically in Argen- cilors and islanders. Afterwards, association president tina’s misguided 1982 invasion that concluded with a humiliating Hector Cisneros described the meetings as “very pleasant, defeat by British arms that probably ended forever any chance of very cordial and very respectful.” He said the business of “recovering” Las Malvinas. the association “is not to talk politics nor resolve diplo- matic problems.” He was touched by the reception they received, Cisneros said: “They are so friendly that it is the occasion from the Falklands’ own bitter minority, say- frightening.” ing simply that welcoming the visitors was “the right thing Falklands Councilor Jan Cheek deflected criticism of to do.” I

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BOLIVIA AT THE CROSSROADS Elizabeth Lada

WILL BOLIVIA’S NEW PRESIDENT BE A FORCE FOR POSITIVE CHANGE OR LEAD THE COUNTRY BACKWARD? THIS IS THE KEY QUESTION.

BY PETER DESHAZO

he inauguration of Evo Morales as president of Bolivia on Jan. 22, 2006, opened a new chapter in that country’s history and poses a formidable policy challenge to the United States. While Morales came to power through an election in which he unexpectedly garnered a majority of votes, his past political practices, campaign rhetoric andT ideological outlook place him at the outer limits of democracy. He was a major force in deepening Bolivia’s grave crisis of governance that led to the forced departure from office of the two previous presidents, a sharp decline

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in the prestige and authority of the state, the weakening a defender of Bolivian sovereignty and economic inter- of an already debilitated rule of law, and increased ests in the face of “imperialism.” His first foreign travel regional and ethnic tension. Whether Morales can con- on the heels of his victory took him to Cuba and then struct an effective government from the ruins of the old Venezuela, prompting the world media to portray him as political system he helped dismantle remains to be seen. firmly ensconced in the anti-American camp. Whether The public mood in Bolivia immediately following the his program of government conforms to the verbiage of election was one of generalized relief that violence and his campaign, or his views and positions take a more confrontation had been avoided by the size of Morales’ moderate turn, will be a key factor in determining his victory. His 54 percent of the popular vote translated future relationship with the United States. into a substantial majority for the Movement Toward That relationship will be important for both sides. Socialism, or MAS, in Bolivia’s lower house of Congress The U.S. has long been the largest bilateral provider of (84 seats to 56 for his conservative opposition, with an foreign assistance to Bolivia and promotes high-profile additional 15 seats divided among two other centrist par- support from international financial institutions, includ- ties). But he has a minority position in the Senate, where ing coordinating (with Mexico) a Bolivia Support Group he must rely on a political deal with two other parties in that raised nearly $100 million in additional funding to order to prevail. By any measure, however, Morales’ help the government of Carlos Mesa close its budget landslide victory in the Dec. 18 election gives him a pop- deficits in 2003 and 2004. ular mandate. U.S.-Bolivian bilateral ties have traditionally been What Morales will do with that mandate is the key close, although not without discordant episodes. The question for Bolivians and the international community U.S. supported Bolivia’s return to democracy in 1982 and alike. His populist and nationalistic campaign promises, the economic liberalization process that began in 1985. oriented toward winning support from Bolivia’s impover- Bolivia’s success in drastically reducing the amount of ished but politically-mobilized indigenous majority, coca under cultivation in the lowlands Chapare region awakened expectations that will be difficult to meet. from some 46,000 hectares in 1997 to 15,000 in 2000 Although Bolivia’s economy is in relatively good shape, it under “Plan Dignidad” was touted by the U.S. as a major remains heavily dependent on the export of primary achievement in the war on drugs in the Andean region. products — above all soya, natural gas and minerals — The emergence of Morales in Bolivian politics, repre- and on foreign aid. Any hope for sustained economic senting a disparate alliance of local political groups, civic growth and job creation will depend on attracting domes- organizations (many of a far-left orientation) and a core tic and foreign investment. Morales, however, may support group of coca growers in the Chapare region of attempt to move the country back to the failed state-cap- Cochabamba Department, has long been a matter of italist model that prevailed before 1985. His choices to concern to Bolivia-watchers in the U.S. government. His head the key economic development and hydrocarbon near-victory in the 2002 presidential elections and his ministries certainly point in that direction. subsequent maneuverings to force the winner — Morales’ campaign rhetoric was peppered with nega- Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (popularly known as Goni) tive references to the United States, portraying himself as — and then Goni’s successor, Carlos Mesa, from power exacerbated that concern. Now, with his overwhelming Peter DeShazo is director of the Americas Program at the victory, Morales-in-power is a reality, and the degree to Center for Strategic and International Studies in which he will become, in his own words, a “nightmare” Washington, D.C. A former FSO, Ambassador DeShazo for the U.S. warrants close attention. served as deputy assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs, deputy U.S. permanent representa- Reform and Reaction tive to the Organization of American States, and director In analyzing the path ahead for Morales, it is useful to of the Office of Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs of look back at how and why he rose to power. It is also the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State important to lay to rest the facile and self-serving expla- Department. He was posted to La Paz, Medellin, nation of his emergence as an expression of pent-up Santiago, Panama City, Caracas and Tel Aviv. indigenous rage at being excluded from Bolivian political

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life, or as a conscious popular Not averse to using force major gains were made in access to protest against the so-called Wash- education and potable water; pover- ington Consensus. and the threat of force to ty rates fell; and large numbers of Little more than a half-decade indigenous peoples became bilin- ago, Bolivia was Latin America’s advance his agenda when gual by learning Spanish. poster child for political and eco- Stimulated by the liberal 1996 nomic reform. Beginning in 1982, in the opposition, Morales Hydrocarbons Law, foreign invest- the country enjoyed a quarter-cen- ment in exploration and production tury of uninterrupted democracy, a must now wear the other of petroleum and natural gas result- milestone in Bolivia’s turbulent his- ed in a tripling of proven petroleum tory pockmarked by military coups. shoe as president. reserves and a fourfold rise in The “New Economic Policy” — put proven gas reserves. Investment in into place in 1985 by Bolivia’s great- hydrocarbons increased by 600 per- est political figure of the 20th century, Víctor Paz cent between 1996 and 1998. By 2004, taxes and fees Estenssoro — moved the country to the front lines of related to natural gas constituted some 37 percent of economic liberalization in Latin America, initiating a overall Bolivian tax revenues. With the conclusion of a reform process broadened by subsequent administra- major gas pipeline to Brazil in 1999 and with plans to tions, especially the first government of Sánchez de resume gas sales to Argentina and expand markets to Lozada (1993-1997). other countries in the Southern Cone and in North These reforms put an end to Bolivia’s inflationary America, the door appeared open for a long-term role for cycles, vastly downsized the public sector, stabilized the natural gas as a motor for economic development. currency, liberalized trade and investment, linked a new By 2002, however, the liberal reform process in pension system to the capitalization of former state enter- Bolivia began to unravel, paralleled by a breakdown in prises, and established a new hydrocarbons regime that effective governance that became manifest soon after the attracted unprecedented levels of foreign investment and election of Goni for a second term in 2002. An econom- led to the discovery of enormous natural gas reserves. ic downturn in 1999, accompanied by a spike in unem- Economic reforms were accompanied by large public ployment, opened the door to widespread protests that investments in health and education. eventually brought down Goni in October 2003 and Mesa Under Goni, a series of important laws were passed in June 2005. Longer-term problems not addressed by that fundamentally altered political life in Bolivia. In the liberal reforms of the 1990s helped stoke the fire of 1994, the Law of Popular Participation decentralized protest, especially the persistence of extreme poverty in public authority by creating municipalities around the indigenous rural areas, deep disparities in income distri- country, providing them with resources and allowing for bution and a rigid class structure based on ethnic origin, the direct election of mayors and municipal authorities. with the indigenous majority at the bottom. A further decentralization law the following year broad- ened the powers of local government, and the constitu- Decline of Traditional Parties tion was amended to lower the voting age from 21 to 18 The clearest manifestations of the crisis, nonetheless, years. Reduction of the voting age, coupled with ener- were political. The system of government based on coali- getic voter registration campaigns, nearly doubled the tions of Bolivia’s traditional political parties that was start- number of registered voters between 1987 and 1999. ed in 1985 had run out of gas by the time of Goni’s sec- Bolivia’s liberal reform regimes between 1985 and ond, truncated presidency. At the head of the once-pow- 1998 produced some impressive results. Inflation was erful Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (National brought to heel. GNP rose during the late 1980s and Revolutionary Movement), Goni won the 2002 presiden- reached a steady range of 4.3 to 5 percent annual growth tial vote with a mere 22 percent, besting Evo Morales by throughout the 1990s; unemployment was reduced; infant about two points. Goni’s subsequent government was mortality fell sharply; life expectancy increased; child weak from the start, in an environment where political immunization rose impressively; illiteracy plummeted; power was dispersed among splinter parties, civil society

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and pressure groups, many with tenuous attachments to The government’s own anti-corruption campaigns, liberal democracy. while ineffective in combating the scourge, reminded Ironically, the decentralization of government and Bolivians of the glaring weaknesses in transparency and state spending during Goni’s first administration made a governance that marked the political system, driving large contribution to the decline of traditional political down the prestige of the parties further still. To be sure, parties, including his own MNR. Popular participation the traditional parties had a major role in their own and decentralization stripped important sources of polit- demise by adhering to authoritarian, exclusionary and ical patronage — the lifeblood of Bolivia’s traditional elitist practices that distanced them from the rest of soci- political parties — from the central government, while ety, as evidenced by Goni’s very weak support in 2002. fostering a dramatic increase in the number of locally- The December 2005 election completed the demise of based parties. In rural areas, especially on the Aymara- the traditional parties: the once-powerful MNR won just speaking altiplano, indigenous leaders used the reforms one Senate seat and elected 7 deputies, collecting a mere to strengthen their political base in small municipalities. 6.5 percent of the popular vote for president. Liberal reforms that shrank the size of the state eliminat- After 2002, Bolivian politics morphed into an ongoing ed jobs that had previously gone to loyalists of the nation- conflict between the national government and regional, al parties, further reducing their patronage base. The often ethnically-based political and social groups making dramatic increase in the size of civil society encouraged direct demands on the state. The rule of law, habitually by domestic and foreign NGOs added a decidedly weak in Bolivia, was swept aside by the protests and road antiparty bias to the environment, further undercutting blockages used by an active political minority, above all in the legitimacy of traditional politics. the cities of El Alto and La Paz, to impose their will over

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the state. During this process, Morales Little more than a without laying out a coherent plan. established himself as a consummate Beyond a call for the nationalization power broker, able to call crowds into half-decade ago, of hydrocarbons and for holding a the streets and shut down much of constituent assembly to draft a new Bolivia’s economy to move his agenda Bolivia was Latin constitution, the campaign rhetoric forward. of the MAS vacillated between mod- The groups that drove Goni and America’s poster child erate populism, staunch nationalism Mesa from office and triggered the and virulently leftist appeals. new round of elections held on Dec. for political and The legislative program Morales 18 espoused a mix of strongly populist intends to carry out will have broad and nationalistic demands — ranging economic reform. repercussions for Bolivia and for rela- from broadened indigenous rights to tions with the United States. Among the nationalization of hydrocarbons. the most contentious issues will be: Evo Morales and the radicals to his left both promoted Democracy and governance. Is Morales a democrat? and rode a tide of economic nationalism that sealed If so, what sort of democracy does he envision for Goni’s fate in October 2003 and was eventually translat- Bolivia? Weak and ineffective governance lies at the ed into the Hydrocarbons Law passed by Congress in heart of Bolivia’s underdevelopment and helped under- May 2005. The new law repealed Goni’s 1996 statute, mine the potential of the economic reforms put in place placed Bolivia’s state hydrocarbons corporation (Yaci- during the 1990s. Among the most glaring weaknesses mientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos, or YPF) in con- are broad disrespect for the rule of law, deep-seated offi- trol of the industry, imposed new taxes on production cial corruption, an ineffective civil service, low-quality and ordered the renegotiation of all previous shared-risk policing, poor relations between the executive and leg- contracts between (foreign) producers and the state. It islative branches, enervated political parties, a wide- marked a full-circle return of economic nationalism in spread penchant for populism, and a political and civic Bolivia, similar to the circumstances under which culture that ignores the public good. Whether Morales Standard Oil and Gulf Oil were nationalized in 1937 and attempts to deal with these fundamental problems will 1969, respectively. indicate the seriousness of his commitment to change. In compliance with his campaign promises, Morales What Way Ahead? has already called for a constituent assembly to draft a Bolivia now stands at a crossroads. The old political new constitution for Bolivia. Reaching consensus on a system based on coalitions of traditional parties has been new constitution would be a difficult enough task, given swept away and the liberal economic reforms put in place the broad ideological, ethnic and regional disparities that in 1985 are likely to be dismantled. What will replace exist in the country. But if Morales intends to use the them? The MAS is a conglomerate of unions, civic forum to promote a corporatist vision of society along the groups and regional organizations — “a confederation of lines of the so-called “participatory democracy” of alliances” in the words of a former adviser to Morales — Chavez’s Venezuela, representative democracy would be rather than a political party in the traditional sense. at risk. Not averse to using force and the threat of it to While Morales had a very strong showing in the heavily advance his agenda when in the opposition, Morales indigenous departments of La Paz, Oruru, Potosí, must now wear the other shoe as president. A key factor Cochabama and Chuquisaca, many of his supporters are in judging his democratic credentials will be the manner of mestizo background and in the middle class, with a in which his government respects the human and civil smattering of intellectuals and leftists of European rights of all Bolivians. descent. Economic policy. Evo Morales’ economic views are a Reflecting its diverse and disunited base of support, work in progress. From his campaign rhetoric and state- the MAS proposed a vision rather than a program in its ments following his election, he clearly favors a strong electoral campaign, protesting neoliberalism, imperial- role for the state in the economy and has a personal dis- ism and exclusion and promising profound change, but trust of the private sector. Morales’ campaign promises

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have awakened expectations for more jobs, quick bons. On the other, he must negotiate new contracts with improvement in the lives of Bolivia’s poor and higher international energy companies who regard the 2005 standards of living that will affect his decision-making. Hydrocarbons Law as contrary to their interests. These Myriad political favors will be on his debit sheet, with sup- firms include Petrobras and Repsol-YPF. The govern- porters expecting government jobs in what Morales insin- ments of Brazil, Spain, Argentina and others have a con- uated would be a greatly-expanded public sector, high- siderable interest in the outcome of this process. lighted by the resurrection of the privatized state corpora- Drug policy. Morales’ original base of political sup- tions, including the state hydrocarbons corporation. port was coca producers in the lowlands Chapare region At the same time, he claims to favor fiscal discipline of Cochabamba department, many of them out-of-work and a tight lid on government spending. These goals are miners or, like Morales’ own family, impoverished largely incompatible. Augmenting income to the state campesinos from the highlands. With a tradition of polit- requires either political sacrifice (charging and collecting ical militancy behind them, the Chapare cocaleros pro- income tax, lowering subsidies, halting contraband, fight- vided the shock troops for protests in the zone itself and ing corruption, increasing domestic fuel prices) or stimu- elsewhere, and constituted a vocal lobby against eradica- lating exports, especially in the hydrocarbons sector, tion of coca. Bolivian law allows the planting of 12,000 where foreign investment plays a key role. If he over- hectares of the crop in the tropical valleys of La Paz milks the hydrocarbons cow, he risks drying up foreign Department (Yungas) for “traditional” use (chewing, tea investment and dooming the sector to stagnation. and ceremonial purposes). But in past years, production On one side, Morales’ own supporters and opponents of coca leaf in the Yungas has reached levels more than to his left clamor for outright nationalization of hydrocar- double the legal limit.

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Not long after his triumph, Morales visited the sustained development if he attempts to turn back the Chapare and assured planters that coca would return to clock by pursing state-capitalist formulas from the the area, but without going into specifics such as how or 1960s. If, on the other hand, he follows a more mod- how much. Increased production of coca in the Chapare erate economic strategy, he could thread the needle would invariably provide additional raw material for between growth and social investment, building on his cocaine and fuel narcotrafficking. Should Morales allow strong political mandate and the willingness of the large-scale production to return to the region, he would international community to give him the benefit of the be in violation of Bolivian law and would put himself at doubt. The opposition to Morales was set back by the odds not only with the United States, but other countries December vote, but is not invisible, especially in the where Bolivian cocaine is trafficked: Brazil, Argentina Senate and in its regional bastions of support in the and Spain. The issue constitutes another testing ground hydrocarbons-rich departments of Santa Cruz and for Morales. Tarija. Soon after his election, Morales traveled to Santa Cruz to ensure local leaders that he would be the The U.S. Response president of all Bolivians. Time will tell if he is. Mindful of the spurt in support for Morales result- The U.S. should seek engagement with the new gov- ing from a warning by the U.S. ambassador during the ernment, fine-tuning its policies according to the deci- last days of the 2002 election that a vote for him would sions Morales takes and his willingness to work with the imperil U.S. aid, Embassy La Paz played its hand deftly United States. One key variable pending final approval and remained above the political fray in the 2005 elec- by Washington is Bolivia’s eligibility for nearly $600 tion. Morales, for his part, met with Ambassador David million from the Millennium Challenge Account for Greenlee soon after the election and gave prominent infrastructure and development projects. Working media play to his meeting with Assistant Secretary for with other countries, especially Brazil and Argentina, Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon on the eve and the international community, the U.S. should of his inauguration. His stridently anti-gringo rhetoric encourage moderate political and economic policies notwithstanding, Morales is familiar with U.S. positions from Morales, even if he is by nature disinclined to take on democracy, development and coca and may see the such steps. value of dialogue and accommodation with the U.S. Washington should also give priority to public diplo- The evolving relationship between Bolivia under macy efforts to overcome the negative image of the Morales and the United States will depend to a large U.S. in many circles, stressing American concern for degree on his openness to cooperation and the skill of democracy, economic development and poverty reduc- U.S. diplomats in encouraging the same. tion, as well as narcotics issues. Larger-scale invest- What happens in Bolivia in the ensuing months will ment in alternative development projects in the have a bearing not only on the well-being of Bolivians Chapare and continued focus of USAID programs on but on regional stability. A turn toward authoritarian- El Alto, the altiplano and other bastions of MAS sup- ism, especially if paralleled by close ideological and port are needed. Embassy La Paz should make certain diplomatic ties to Chavez and Castro, would imperil that it has Aymara- and Quechua-speaking Foreign democracy and set a negative example for other politi- Service National employees in key positions. The cal groups in the Americas claiming to represent indige- recent announcement by the State Department that nous constituencies. The prickly nationalism that runs two Foreign Service officers will be deployed to Santa so deep in Bolivia may dissuade Morales and the MAS Cruz is a good step, as well. from attempting to turn the country into a client state of Bolivia will be a difficult test for U.S. policy, with Venezuela or Cuba, if indeed they have any aspirations broad implications throughout the hemisphere. Evo to do so. The appearance of Venezuelan or Cuban Morales may turn out to be a force for positive change, “advisers” in Bolivia, especially in the security services, or he may lead the country backward toward authori- would set off alarm bells. tarianism and further misery. Whatever Washington On the economic front, Morales will have a difficult can do to encourage the former outcome will benefit time meeting demands for jobs, poverty reduction and both nations. I

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THE POLITICS OF HAVING A MAID

THE DECISION TO HIRE HOUSEHOLD HELP WHEN POSTED OVERSEAS MAY SEEM A NO-BRAINER. BUT FOR MANY FSOS, IT IS QUITE COMPLEX.

BY ALEXIS LUDWIG

ne of the more surreal experiences I In that sense, I’ve taken full advantage of an undeniable remember from my first year in the facet of the Foreign Service experience: when posted abroad, Foreign Service (over 12 years ago particularly to a “developing” country, many of us (I include now) took place following a Hash myself in this majority) are catapulted from the obscure House Harriers run in Guatemala ranks of the American middle and upper-middle classes to City. Not long after the drinking had the highest social rungs of the societies that receive us, even begun, I found myself observing a if we are only honorary members while there. Having a discussion among a group of (mostly) men about my age who maid, and sometimes more than one, along with other house- Owere, of all things, complaining about their maids. hold assistants such as a nanny, gardener and driver, is often I didn’t take active part in the discussion, a rather pro- de rigueur in the new situation. It comes with the territory, longed exchange that (as I recall) turned on the problems and the class. of tardiness, imperfect vacuuming and a less-than-enthu- I got over the initial hump of reluctance in Guatemala siastic washing of dishes. At that time I was still stunned when I was still single and didn’t really need a maid, even as I could even afford a maid (she cleaned my apartment I realized how convenient it was for a person with my level of twice a week). Just before joining the Service, I could (non) commitment to housework to have one. Newly mar- barely pay my rent. ried in Tokyo, where most Japanese people go it alone, we Since that long-ago late afternoon, I’ve come to accept had a young woman from the Philippines come to help with that I, too, could be liberated from the burden of mun- the household chores. Returning to D.C., we were plunged dane daily chores, which can grow nearly all-encompass- back into the mundane obscurity of my class of origin, des- ing if you throw kids into the mix. With a maid, I would tined to sweep our own floors, wash our own dishes and do not have to worry about dishes or laundry, vacuuming or our own laundry. (My wife, who is from Latin America, con- ironing, cleaning the toilets or taking out the trash. Nor tinued to hold me in high regard even as she realized that I would I ever again have to shop for food or cook dinner was not as well-off as she first thought.) When we left for while serving overseas if I wasn’t in the mood. Malaysia, it was with a newborn in tow. There, for the first time in my life, I had a maid full time, as I have had since. Alexis Ludwig, an FSO since 1994, has served in Guate- How quickly things change! mala City, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Washington. He is Recently, I had the pleasure of reading Roy Jenkins’ bril- currently deputy economic-political section chief and liant biography of Winston Churchill. I was naturally labor officer in La Paz. impressed by the great man’s energy and gusto, by his broad

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appetites and interests, and by his For me and no doubt for many many accomplishments. On the others, to live within a social structure other hand, I noticed that he had a When I joined the characterized by deep-seated and leg or two up on the rest of us in seemingly immovable structural in- achieving these feats, thanks to a Service, I was stunned equalities causes what psychologists team of servants catering to his every call cognitive dissonance. I enjoy the personal need, both at home and dur- I could afford a maid; tangible benefits of living on the right ing his constant travels around the side of the social divide, but at the globe. not long before, I could same time I feel first-hand the injus- Somehow I doubt Churchill even tice of it all, and the feeling gnaws at once, for example, made his own bed barely pay my rent. my conscience. There are various or even a sandwich. It also comes strategies for dealing with such feel- across clearly in the biography that he ings, some of which have the advan- devoted little time to being a father, tage of violating both the hidden and and probably never saw, much less the visible codes of the unjust order. changed, a diaper. And he was able to For example, you can, as we do, pay dictate to an ever-present personal ence in one’s home of actual servants your maid or nanny more than the assistant a number of his famous can be quite unsettling. No matter going salary rate (“distorting the mar- speeches while soaking in his cher- how well we treat them, we feel that ket,” as economists would say), give ished bath. we are somehow betraying our egali- generous gifts at holidays and so Could it be, I asked myself, that I, tarian roots. forth. That still may not amount to too, might accomplish more by taking This is especially true in societies much by U.S. standards, but it at least full advantage of a similar opportunity where the existential identity of the demonstrates your conviction that to hire household help? Now that I maid or the nanny is defined by that the so-called market in this case is am living in the heart of South work, and doubly so when the work cynically distorted to begin with. (Is America and have two full-time maids (as is mostly the case) offers little or a dinner with friends at a good restau- and even a gardener (who tends to our no hope of advancement, of breaking rant really worth the same as one yard once a week), shouldn’t I be out of that identity and moving month of loving, dependable child- achieving more than I did before hav- toward something better. The aver- care services offered by your nanny?) ing all this help? age monthly salary of a maid or nanny You can also encourage your in many poorer countries is less, household assistants to develop their Dealing with sometimes much less, than the cost of professional prospects by studying Cognitive Dissonance dinner for two at a decent restaurant English, cooking, first aid or the like, I suspect I’m not alone in my dis- in San Francisco (wine not included), and thereby help them open further comfort at the existence of a large class a room for a night at an adequate and greater possibilities for them- of people who live at the beck and call hotel in Miami, or movies and pop- selves or their children in the future. of a much smaller elite. However corn for a family of four at your typi- Or, most radical of all in some soci- attractive the lure of the easy life, I cal suburban multiscreen complex. eties, you can treat them with respect suspect that the still-strong egalitarian International economists will insist and, to the degree possible, as equals. sentiments of many Americans — our that such comparisons are misleading discomfort with explicit and entrench- because the cost of living in such Doing What We Can ed class distinctions and the marked countries is often dramatically lower There is one other approach that social and economic inequalities that than in the U.S. But somehow, such can be helpful, which is to give our- necessarily accompany them — com- reassurances fade when measured selves credit for good intentions and pel us to focus on that other side of the against the seemingly unbridgeable not get hung up on changing the coin. social and economic chasm between world. After all, we pay our household For those of us accustomed to per- those on the higher rungs like us, who help a living wage, often well above forming our own daily household can afford such things of leisure — the national average, and sometimes chores and attending to the more pro- and the many down below, including better than that of teachers, office saic dimensions of child-raising while our household help, who cannot even workers and other educated profes- living in the U.S., whether out of eco- dream of affording them. Simply put, sionals in the local economy. Accord- nomic necessity or choice, the pres- for them there is no way up, or out. ingly, refusing to extend employment

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I suspect I’m not alone in my discomfort at the existence of a large class of people who live at the beck and call of a much smaller elite.

merely to salve one’s conscience seems facile, self-defeating and not particularly helpful to anyone con- cerned. (It was a variation on this argument, by the way, that convinced me to hire a maid for the first time.) My sense is that, on the whole, the local household help in many coun- tries often prefer working for Ameri- can families precisely because we tend to employ all or some of these strategies, instinctively or otherwise, in dealing with their presence in our homes. Call it a humble pushing at the social boundaries, an irrepressible egalitarian impulse (mocked by many as naïve and even disingenuous, I real- ize), or real, rubber-hits-the-road democratization. Ironically, in some societies, where social stratifications go deeper than we can fathom, such efforts can be jar- ring even to their intended beneficia- ries. Following my wife’s knowing guidance, for example, I have re- frained from inviting the maid who currently lives and works in our home to sit at the table with us to share the dinner that she herself prepares — to avoid the dreadful confusion this could cause. At the same time, how- ever, we take care to emphasize that she should make herself at home in our shared home. Among other things, we tell her, this means she

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Having a maid, and sometimes a nanny, gardener and driver, comes with the territory — and the class.

should eat what we eat, including the ice cream in the freezer, with our same dishes and utensils (some local families have separate, less attactive versions for their household help), and take time to relax (as we all do) when the press of work is off. Few Americans believe that Thomas Jefferson’s oft-quoted phrase in the Declaration of Independence about all men being created equal means that everyone is, or even should be, equal in American society. (We need not dwell here on the cruel ironies of Jefferson’s own life or of slavery in the American past.) Even if they did, a simple look around proves it isn’t so. But it does speak to a cen- tral ideal, albeit one never fully real- ized: no one should be stuck in the place or position into which they were born, and those things don’t define who you are. The son or daughter of the janitor, farm worker or maid enjoys, at least in theory, the same rights, privileges and access to the law and opportunity as does the daughter or son of the industrial scion, chief executive officer or ambassador. One can choose to activate that “latent” equality or not, but ultimate- ly, who one is deeper down — below mere socio-economic circumstances — plays an important role in how the show evolves. In short, the content of one’s character is supposed to count for something in American life.

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A time of service…a time of need I continue to hope that the children of today’s Help for Seniors May maids and nannies, with Be Just a Phone Call Away— hard work and a little The Senior Living Foundation may be able to help you or someone you know. luck, will become Some examples of assistance are: tomorrow’s engineers, N Home Health Care N Adult Day Care & Respite Care artists or entrepreneurs. N Prescription Drug Copayments N Transportation to Medical Appointments N Durable Medical Equipment

For more information, please contact the Social and economic classes may SENIOR LIVING FOUNDATION exist, but membership in one or OF THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE 1716 N Street, NW N Washington, DC 20036-2902 another of them is not permanent: Phone: (202) 887-8170 N Fax: (202) 872-9320 those above may fall and, more E-Mail: [email protected] N Web Site: www.SLFoundation.org importantly, those below may rise. SPONSORED BY THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE PROTECTIVE ASSOCIATION Pondering the politics of having a maid and a nanny, I often reflect on the late George Kennan’s belief that the U.S. should strive to lead the world on the human rights front not by hectoring, pressuring or slaying foreign dragons, but by the powerful example of our democratic practices at home. In this connection, the sta- tistics indicating a growing divide between the truly wealthy and the rest of us right here in the U.S., along with the apparent emergence of a quasi-permanent underclass, should concern us all. Still, I continue to hope that the children of today’s maids and nan- nies, with hard work and a little luck, will become tomorrow’s engineers, artists or entrepreneurs. For as much as I dislike washing the dishes and folding the laundry, I would pre- fer doing those thankless tasks to knowing that the daughter of the maid who folds laundry and does dishes for my family today will be doing the same thing for my son’s family tomorrow. I

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LIFE AFTER THE FS: RETIREES HAVE THE LAST WORD

MORE STORIES AND ADVICE ABOUT RETIREMENT FROM THE FOREIGN SERVICE.

he Journal’s January focus, “A the speaker urged us to include social ties, educational and World of Possibilities: Life and cultural activities, spirituality, sports/health/exercise and Work after the Foreign Service,” some kind of meaningful work, paid or voluntary, in our generated so much interest that plans. Those general guidelines, which research on longevi- stories, observations and insights ty supports, have formed a good basis for a life full of enrich- on the subject from retirees have ing experiences for me. And had I not heeded the caution continued to pour in. The second to pay attention to my health, I might not have noticed a installment of “Retirees Speak Up” appeared in the lump in my neck that led to a timely cancer diagnosis and TFebruary issue. Here is the third and last installment. effective treatment. — Susan B. Maitra, Senior Editor In running over the retirement cliff, I tumbled into a process of reinventing myself over and over as I tried differ- utu ent things. And I encountered the unexpected: a divorce, serious illness, accidental injury, death in the family, age dis- REINVENTING OURSELVES crimination in the workplace — the kinds of setbacks that After the “up or out” system was instituted in the 1980s, could derail any plans. Each person has his or her own ver- I used to think occasionally about what retirement from the sion of this; one of my FSO friends suddenly found himself Foreign Service might be like. It looked to me like a huge, raising grandchildren shortly after retirement. yawning, empty abyss below the cliff that was the cutoff point of our careers. It was hard to imagine what might lie What Would It Take? beyond. The Foreign Service had been almost my only job. My initial inclination upon completing the Job Search Our careers, after all, enfolded our whole lives in a way few Program had been to seek a second, full-bore career, for I others would, with entire changes of country, language, per- was far too young — only 51 — to sit on the sidelines of life. sonal contacts, culture and job every few years. I would As one of my friends observed, “You’ve never let grass grow wager that for many of us, our lives have taken directions we under your feet.” Reality and experience, however, revealed never anticipated. Mine led me to jobs I never thought of that a new, high-powered career was not only an unrealistic and things I’d never tried. option but not really a desirable one for me. The best advice I ever heard was part of the State A Civil Service job would mean a suspended annuity. Department retirement seminar: lead a varied life and take And I had never been attracted to for-profit business, whose care of your health. While I no longer recall all the details, focus is on the bottom line. Nonprofit organizations seemed

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to be looking for very senior people, such as former ambas- has opened some doors to exploring possibilities in new sadors, with corporate contacts to boost their image and areas. fundraising, or for 20-somethings willing to accept very low wages to do junior program work. Getting a grant to write a Places to Go, Wishes to Fulfill book on Germany proved impossible; grant-giving founda- I detest the phrase “I keep busy,” which seems to imply tions would consider only writers who were already well that life is so empty that one has to search for something, known, or a candidate who either had a Ph.D. or was getting even with little meaning, to fill the time. I find that sad and one, and I was unwilling to go to the huge expense of spend- short-sighted, like the comment from a German friend who ing a year in Germany to do the research on speculation. declined to take a course in something in which she was One of the first things I did was hire a certified financial interested because — in her 60s — she thought she was “too planner to help figure out whether I needed to work for pay old to learn.” I plan to keep right on learning until I’m at to supplement my annuity, and how least 90. There are so many won- much I would have to earn to enjoy derful organizations out there, from the lifestyle I wanted. The answer, With money not a primary the Smithsonian to the World to my relief, was: I’d have to do Affairs Council, not to mention some work, but not full time all year consideration, I like to have retirement programs, libraries, the long. Everyone has his or her own Internet and community colleges, preferences, but I would hate a job maximum flexibility. that anyone with a curious mind that tied me down two or three days and reasonable health has virtually a week all year long. With money Working full time for part endless choices for continuing edu- not a primary consideration, I like to cation. have maximum flexibility to take of the year gives me the Like many of my friends, I now long international trips and engage wonder how I ever had the time to in other interests. Working full time lifestyle I want. work full time. There are so many for part of the year gives me the things to which we can turn our lifestyle I want. — Carolyn V. Meirs attention and skills that it is a matter It’s absolutely true that most jobs of choosing what each of us finds come from personal contacts. meaningful and perhaps fun. Being Serendipitously, in 1996 a former Foreign Service supervi- a contributing member of society is very important to me. I sor suggested I apply to the Federal Emergency began exploring and have never stopped changing focus as Management Agency, which was recruiting public affairs opportunities either appear on my doorstep or, once I have people at the time. I was hired within a few months to do defined a goal, are found through systematic searching. intermittent assignments around the country. A number of When I retired, I made a list of places I had always want- other retired FSOs have also done this work for FEMA, ed to go but had never visited, and those I wanted to revis- whose regional offices hire intermittent people — called it. I have been to a number of them already, from Australia “Stafford Act Employees,” somewhat like WAEs at State — to Thailand; the Galapagos and Serengeti are next. to do everything from personnel work to disaster housing I also listed unfulfilled aspirations such as creative writing, programs and keeping the computer systems running. researching and writing a family history, taking up skiing (I feel compelled to note, as the result of my experience at again, reading more international literature and social sci- FEMA, that the organizational, systemic and leadership ence books, being more active in my church, taking up scuba problems plaguing the agency are recent and seldom the diving and learning wildlife photography. I particularly want- fault of those out in the trenches.) ed to contribute to international education, which I have In 1998, another former colleague mentioned that the always thought is the best thing we do in foreign affairs. Foreign Service Grievance Board was seeking new mem- Today, the family history is nearly complete. I’m enjoy- bers. I wound up on contract there for four years. Neither ing my parabolic skis in Colorado and Utah. I earned my this job nor FEMA was anything I had thought about doing; advanced PADI diving certification at age 56, and have but both offered new experiences, the chance to meet won- dived on the Great Barrier Reef. My shelves are so stuffed derful, talented people and the extra income that enabled me with books on everything from Islam to Australian literature to do many things I enjoy. Unfortunately, I was unable to tap and photo albums that they threaten to topple over, and I into the WAE program at State until very recently, and recently completed an interfaith pilgrimage to Israel. And opportunities there now seem to have largely dried up. But this is the sixth year I have been a volunteer evaluator for a call from the blue led to a recent, very short-term job that FLEX, an international youth exchange program.

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Always Something New be eaten, but could do nothing. And so it goes. When someone Enter the lion of Kabul. During recently asked me, “Are you looking I decided then to go into the Afghan conflict, BBC spotlighted for a job?” I found myself answering: the story of a lion that the Taliban had “Always.” animal welfare, which tortured. I realized every animal lover Another asked: “Where are you would want to be in Kabul, and within going next?” I had to think about that really involved just a 24 hours many called. But most well- one, because visits to friends and fam- meaning animal-relief workers who ily or work could lead me almost any- focus shift. It is a field called were not conflict veterans. I where. But wherever it is, I’m open feared they might interfere with to new places and adventures. that is useful, similar humanitarian workers, so the North Maybe, if I ever settle down long Carolina Zoo and I assembled an enough, short stories, a play or a novel to my diplomatic work international coalition and inserted might actually get written some day. professional relief workers. The Caroline V. Meirs and challenging. World Society for the Protection of Alexandria, Va. Animals — an umbrella body for over — Larry W. Roeder Jr. 600 animal welfare groups, many in utu developing nations — also sent a great team. Still, while animal relief work- COCKTAILS AND ers at WSPA are professionals, many ANIMALS: HOW I national animal-welfare NGO. The others are not trained to work in U.N. RETIRED move has been fantastic and builds emergencies. Could trained animal- Retirement is scary. I grew up in on my background, so I offer it as a relief workers make a difference? State and worked for the Army and retirement planning model. Senior U.N. and Red Cross State for 35 years; so retirement friends agreed that animal welfare changed a half-century-old connection. Plan Before Your 60s should be important in both disasters As the Bureau of International The retirement plan began by and development. If Pakistani sheep Organization Affairs’ policy adviser on deciding not to wait until my 60s, a are protected from winter, the earth- disaster management between 1994 bad time to start fresh. I also sought quake victims will have jobs in spring and 2005, I negotiated United Nations courses, projects and jobs supporting and can buy a future. Otherwise, the agreements on emergency telecom- my core specialties of crisis manage- victims will become beggars, vulner- munications and urban search and ment and multilateral diplomacy; able to exploitation. In fact, about rescue, helped father Reliefweb, the and consulted headhunters. Offers one billion people worldwide (more U.N.’s first disaster Web site, showed came my way; but a lion, camel and than the population of North how a solar-powered plane could gorilla led me to animal welfare. America and Western Europe com- track refugees and rhinos, seized an Animals have always been impor- bined), many dependent on animals, airplane, worked on sanctions and tant to me. I’ve ridden camels since earn less than a dollar a day. Such crises and sat on important disaster age 5, and as an adult I investigated poverty endangers economic devel- expert panels. I also ran the Global the caravan trail from Somalia to opment, the environment and politi- Disaster Information Network, an Cairo when I saw a camel burned cal stability — issues my whole international public-private partner- alive — a career-changing trauma career focused on. Animal welfare in ship started by Al Gore. At the end before I knew it. I uncovered a disasters or peacetime enhances pro- of Clinton’s time I considered a move smuggling operation in primates, ductivity and protects livelihoods, to the Hill or a political appointment, helped release dolphins and investi- and thus is as crucial as shelters, and was slated for the latter. But gated the effects of oil pollution on clearing landmines or farming. then the 2000 election went south. whales. During the first Persian Gulf By 2004, despite my involvement War, I advised frigate commanders Protect People and Animals in many important crises and chal- who inspected ships, often stocked About a year before retirement, lenges, I needed a change. Fortu- with animals suffering from little while starting a project helping Native nately, my disaster work was well water and much heat. While driving Americans, I met WSPA’s impressive regarded and I hadn’t burned politi- in southern Sudan, my driver and I director general, a retired two-star cal bridges. I retired to join an inter- saw a gorilla and worried he would British Army general. He agreed

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that while, in principle, animal wel- have made for decades. Now utu fare’s mission must be to stop animal WCDR, the tsunami and Hurricane ECA: AN EXCELLENT cruelty anywhere, it can also be the Katrina are seen as giant highway WAE OPPORTUNITY best way to protect human liveli- signs saying: do more risk reduction I read with interest Roger Dan- hoods, like those of many refugees and do it better — protect people kert’s article (“FS Retirees Find a and internally displaced persons. We and animals. I decided then to go ‘WAE’ Back to the Department,” FSJ, also concurred that the animal wel- into animal welfare, which really January 2006), but noticed that in his fare effort is disjointed and should be involved just a focus shift. It is a field description of “Where WAEs Work” organized like the humanitarian that is useful, similar to my diplomat- he did not mention the very success- relief community, and have better ic work and challenging. ful work that WAEs have carried out ties to the U.N. Today I work as director of United within the Bureau of Educational and Then, on the heels of the Asian Nations affairs for WSPA (lroeder Cultural Affairs. tsunami crisis in December 2004, @wspausa.org). We manage anti-cru- From June 2001 until September came the World Conference on elty projects, work on disasters, pro- 2004 I worked as a WAE program Disaster Reduction. The U.N. told tect species and foster a Universal officer in ECA’s Office of Internation- member nations to spend money on U.N. Declaration on Animal Welfare. al Visitors, Europe/Eurasia Branch. It risk reduction measures, such as Our work also protects human liveli- afforded me excellent and steady adopting early-warning systems, hoods, reducing poverty and hunger. employment. With my Civil Service strengthening structures and reduc- Now I travel the globe, talking to the colleagues, I helped to prepare pro- ing populations in disaster-prone disaster and development communi- grams for the international visitors locations, because risk reduction ties. In other words, even though nominated by our embassies in saves far more than rapid response. retired, I am a contented, contribut- Europe and in the Central Asian The same benefit works for animals ing member of society. republics. We designed programs to on farms, in cities or pastoral set- Larry W. Roeder Jr. meet embassy goals for individual, tings. It’s an argument many of us South Riding, Va. small-group and regional groups of

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visitors, including a growing number of programs, my colleagues and I have of Muslim participants in Europe. been able to gauge the effectiveness of International visitors are generally I am one more example the International Visitor Leadership mid-career professionals in their gov- Program in helping to overcome par- ernmental, media, educational, scien- that there is, indeed, ticipants’ preconceptions and preju- tific, cultural and NGO institutions. dices about America. The 60-year his- For most, it is the first opportunity to life after the tory of the program and the fact that visit the U.S. and interact with Ameri- currently more than 180 alumni are cans in many different institutions and Foreign Service. heads of government both speak to walks of life. They also learn about our the efficacy and long-standing success cultural offerings and regional differ- — Tom Miller of this outstanding program. ences, and participate in “home hospi- In my Foreign Service assignments tality” experiences. overseas as a cultural affairs officer, I As a retired FSO with more than coordinated the nomination and selec- 30 years of experience in cultural and quality professional and cultural expe- tion process at different embassies informational affairs overseas and in riences in our country. that chose international visitors. I met Washington, I was able to apply my From time to time I also worked with them and briefed them prior to Foreign Service skills to the develop- with the East Asia Branch in the Office their departures to the U.S. After ment of programs and national itiner- of International Visitors to develop pro- retirement, as a WAE, I was able to aries for our visitors. My colleagues grams for IVs. Some of my most welcome many new visitors, especially and I worked with national program rewarding experiences were those those from Central Asia and countries agencies in Washington and with vol- involving participants in regional pro- in which I had previously served. unteers in cities throughout the coun- grams, especially younger profession- My four years of part-time work in try to welcome our international visi- als on their first visits to the United ECA have been among the most tors and assure them of the highest- States. Through debriefings at the end rewarding of my long career in inter- national affairs, and I have had the good fortune to meet with a few of the IVs in their home countries during my travels. I have also spoken with a num- ber of ambassadors who rate the International Visitor Leadership Pro- gram as one of their most effective tools of diplomacy. The existence of International Visitor alumni associa- tions in many countries speaks to the value IV participants themselves attach to their experiences in our country. Bruce K. Byers Reston, Va.

utu

APPRECIATION FOR THE RETIREMENT FOCUS I really appreciated your series of articles on life after the Foreign Service in the January and February editions of the Journal. I can well identify with the writers as I retired from the Foreign Service at the end of 2004 after 29 years, most recently as ambassador to Greece and

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before that as ambassador to Bosnia- ational facilities. We also have compli- (less 4 percent per month for 25 Herzegovina. I had not done a mentary door-to-door transportation months); (2) partial refund (less 2 per- resumé in 30 years, and didn’t have a to world-class performing arts and cent per month for 25 month); and a clue on how to go about looking for sports events and an active Institute full refund. In at least one case that I post–Foreign Service employment. for Learning in Retirement program. am aware of, the refund is not paid Through a series of fortunate cir- And, space permitting, we can audit until a new resident signs a contract cumstances and a lot of luck, I ended classes at the university at no charge. for the space. up taking a job as chief executive offi- In addition, we have access (if we so It might also be added that no cer of Plan International, a $500 mil- choose) to the College of Medicine for guarantee exists that the monthly fee lion NGO that focuses on the needs of state-of-the art medical, dental and will remain at the level it was at the poor children in Asia, Africa and Latin hospital services. time of admission; experience shows America. We concentrate on the There are a number of retirement that it is likely to rise annually. longer-term development needs of communities that are affiliated to For a Foreign Service retiree, a full children and their families, including some extent with universities. Affilia- understanding of the financial terms education, health, livelihood, shelter, tions range from merely being located before signing the contract is highly children’s rights and building relation- near a university to a more integrated recommended. ships. We have 7,000 full-time and affiliation such as at Oak Hammock. David Newsom over 60,000 part-time and volunteer Bottom line: in addition to the Charlottesville, Va. staff working in 62 countries. The job questions suggested in the Harrop is fantastic. I’m on the road 75 percent article, ask about affiliation with local utu of the time in all the countries I avoid- educational institutions. Such affilia- ed during my Foreign Service career. tion can offer great benefits in addi- ACCURATE, EXCELLENT I write to reassure my colleagues tion to those mentioned in the article, INFORMATION that I am one more example that there and — judging from the cost figures I commend Ambassador William is, indeed, life after the Foreign given in the article — at no greater Harrop on his informative article on Service. I also would be glad to pro- and perhaps even less cost. moving to a senior living facility. As a vide whatever meager advice I can to Frank Bates retired social worker with experience colleagues contemplating careers in Gainesville, Fla. at the State Department and as a for- the international NGO sector. mer consultant to the Senior Living Tom Miller utu Foundation of the American Foreign Surrey, U.K. Service, I can testify to the accurate RETIREMENT HOMES: and excellent information he has utu ATTEND TO THE FINE given to retired Foreign Service per- PRINT sonnel. SENIOR LIVING Congratulations on a most useful It is traumatic to leave one’s home FACILITIES: ONE THING issue for retirees. On the basis of my of many years, with the attendant sift- MISSING… experience, I would add some infor- ing-through of treasured possessions The article by Bill Harrop in the mation to Bill Harrop’s fine summary and leaving familiar surroundings. January issue, “Moving to a Senior of the factors involved in considering a However, arming oneself with an Living Facility,” was very well re- retirement home. understanding of what each facility searched and highly informative. One Although some of the retirement can provide, what levels of care are thing missing, however, was mention complexes are condominiums or coop- offered and what the fees and expens- of facilities that are associated with eratives, admission to some of the prin- es are can mitigate somewhat the pain universities: they offer a great many cipal ones is on the basis of a substan- of leaving and ease the transition to benefits over and above those des- tial entrance fee that ranges between another home. cribed in the article. $100,000 and $500,000, depending on Mr. Harrop has done a fine job of For example, Oak Hammock, the number of persons, the space and explaining what retirement facilities where my wife and I retired, is affiliat- the choice of refund options. can offer and has provided a practical ed with the University of Florida. This entrance fee (in addition to guide to approaching this important Among other things, we can avail our- the monthly fees) provides assured decision. selves of the bookstore, the libraries life-care, but no equity in the space. Jill Funk Chobanian and many of the university’s recre- Refund options include: (1) full refund Bethesda, Md. I

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BOOKS

I once assumed Bremer had not Set Up for Failure Jerry Bremer took on given senior Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani enough atten- My Year in Iraq: The Struggle one of the toughest tion. But after reading this memoir, I to Build a Future of Hope tasks ever given to a suspect the reverse is true. I also won- L. Paul Bremer III, with Malcolm U.S. diplomat and der if our scrupulous attempt to bal- McConnell, Simon & Schuster, 2006, ance the number of Sunnis, Shi’a and $27.00, hardcover, 417 pages. handled it with skill, Kurds contributed to the dominance discipline and grace. of ethnic and sectarian politics we now REVIEWED BY DAVE DUNFORD find in Iraq. Making matters worse, Bremer’s Ambassador L. Paul (“Jerry”) u relationship with Lt. Gen. Rick Bremer has taken a lot of heat for Sanchez, commander of Coalition what has gone wrong in Iraq. While forces, was clearly strained, while My Year in Iraq: The Struggle to experience on the ground in Iraq was Donald Rumsfeld and the civilians in Build a Future of Hope will not a missed opportunity the Pentagon ignored his concerns absolve him, it does suggest that if Bremer staunchly defends his about troop levels, persisted in naïve our intervention proves to be the dis- controversial debaathification decree, attempts to transfer power to Ahmad aster many fear, much of the blame pointing out that it applied to just 1 Chalabi and an unrepresentative should go to the Bush administra- percent of Baath Party members. group of exiles, and resisted Bremer’s tion’s mistakes and misjudgments Unfortunately, most of them were push for the arrest of renegade Shiite prior to his appointment. Conversely, heads of large families and networks, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. should Iraq somehow emerge as a greatly increasing its impact. The Other critical issues get surprising- success, Jerry Bremer will deserve order did not create the insurgency, ly little of the author’s attention. He some of the credit. but did give it the legs it has today. records that for weeks the CPA had no He got off to a rocky start when he Too late, Bremer realized that phones, but never explains why. The arrived in Baghdad in May 2003. “we’re in a race.” From the day Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal During his first substantive meeting Coalition forces took Baghdad, time elicits a few paragraphs but embar- with the senior civilian advisers (I was was not on our side. Iraqis were mak- rassingly little introspection. And the one) who had come in with retired Lt. ing decisions about whether or not it State Department’s Future of Iraq Gen. Jay Garner the month before, he made sense to work with us. So our project is dismissed in a couple of sen- floated the idea of “shooting looters.” top priority should have been to get tences. When this comment inevitably leaked, Iraqi institutions up and running and This book is an important compo- the U.S. administration and the mili- put people back to work, with help nent of the history of this war, though tary quickly distanced themselves from the United Nations and other critics will find it self-serving. But from it — apparently convincing countries. But instead of focusing on there should be no doubt that Jerry Bremer that we were all Garner loy- security, which he left largely to the Bremer took on one of the toughest alists who couldn’t be trusted. military, and reconstruction, which tasks ever given to a U.S. diplomat and Ironically, most of us hungered for was hostage to the deteriorating secu- handled it with skill, discipline and strong civilian leadership and very rity situation, Bremer spent much of grace — notwithstanding the presi- much wanted Bremer to succeed. So his time haggling with his hand-picked dent’s negative reaction when Bremer his unwillingness to reach out for Governing Council over the details of recommended he look to the State advice from those of us with some the political process. Department for his replacement.

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B OOKS u

Indeed, it is a revealing barometer pragmatic approach to Islam and of Bremer’s tenure to compare his entrepreneurial confidence. He unremarkable arrival in Baghdad in Few observers are better then devotes a section to each trait, May 2003 with his intricately choreo- as revealed in various locales he visit- graphed exit on June 28, 2004. His prepared and positioned ed. Along the way, he gives us sharply departure, two days early for security delineated portraits of such figures as reasons, entailed crawling out of a C- than Hugh Pope to Kazakhstan’s crafty Nursultan Nazar- 130, dashing to a waiting Chinook bayev, Turkmenistan’s comically mega- helicopter and boarding a small U.S. enlighten Western lomaniacal Saparmurat Niyazov, and government jet. Uzbekistan’s hardline Islam Karimov, Things that begin badly usually end readers about the 140 all acolytes of Turkey’s Kemal Ataturk. badly. Pope’s insights into the Uygurs’ million Turkic residents smoldering discontent are particularly Dave Dunford is a retired Foreign valuable because Xinjiang is so inac- Service officer whose overseas postings of some 20 countries. cessible. Devotees of the 19th centu- included Quito, Helsinki, Cairo, Ri- ry’s “Great Game” will appreciate his yadh and Muscat. He served in Bagh- chapters on the Turkic republics’ dad from April to June 2003. He cur- efforts to loosen the Russian bear’s rently teaches, writes and consults out hug; the contest for influence between of Tucson, Ariz. the region’s utility as a base from theocratic Tehran and secular Ankara which to launch a military assault on (won by enterprising Turkish expor- the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. ters, entrepreneurs, builders and Few observers are better prepared moderate Muslim educators); and Turkic Delight and positioned than Hugh Pope to American oilmen and military officers enlighten Western readers about the (alas, no diplomats), far from home Sons of the Conquerors: 140 million Turkic residents of some but close to the action. His encoun- The Rise of the Turkic World 20 countries, including Germany, the ters with many colorful characters like Hugh Pope, 2005, Peter Mayer, Netherlands and the U.S. Having Emre, a youthful Kazakh immigrant $35.00, hardcover, 413 pages, photos. read “Persian” and Arabic at Oxford, from Mongolia; Fidan Ekiz, an out- he settled in Istanbul in 1987, learned spoken Turk creating her own future REVIEWED BY RICHARD MCKEE Turkish, and became the local corre- in the Netherlands; and Arif Azci, who spondent of the Wall Street Journal. led a camel caravan from China to After the disintegration of the In 1989, a xenophobic spasm that Turkey, vivify Pope’s generalizations. USSR, the unfamiliar adjective obliged 350,000 Turkish-speaking citi- It is odd, however, that Pope lavish- “Turkic” came to characterize five new zens of Bulgaria to seek refuge in es so much ink on the far-fetched republics — Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Pope’s courtesy call on Isa claims to Turkic descent of North Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Azer- Alptekin, the aged and exiled leader of Carolina’s “Melungeons” but ignores baijan — and minorities in China’s the Turkic Uygur minority of Xinjiang, the Tatars in the heart of Russia and, Xinjiang province, Russia, Afghani- led him to travel far afield to gather particularly, the Turks of Cyprus. The stan, Iran, Iraq, Greece and the Bal- reportage that became material for island’s unresolved status clouds kans. All shared with Turkey lan- this ambitious, often funny and occa- Ankara’s quest for full European guages derived from a single source sionally profound book. Union membership and has great and sociological affinities, notably an Mercifully, Sons of the Conquerors: potential ramifications throughout the attachment to Islam. The United The Rise of the Turkic World is nei- Turkic (and Muslim) worlds. States was already interested in this ther a guidebook nor a travelogue. Is there a Turkic world and, if so, is “strategic buffer zone” separating In its pages, Pope highlights six col- it rising? Pope marshals arguments to Slavic Europe and Asia from the lective qualities he discerns in Turkic answer both questions affirmatively, often-turbulent lands to the south. peoples: their military leaning, affin- adducing architectural, culinary, psy- But Washington’s interest grew ity for strong leaders, shared history, chological and physiological affinities, sharply after the 9/11 attacks, due to complex attitudes toward the West, along with the six qualities cited above,

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B OOKS u as being shared by all “sons of the with the texts of the relevant joint [Mongol and Ottoman] conquerors.” statements (which are surprisingly Nonetheless, he concedes that “The The authors strongly — concise and readable considering the Turkic peoples … add up to far less technical subject matter). The index is than the sum of their parts.” Given and, in this reviewer’s also thorough, and I found myself their linguistic differences, oppressive turning to it frequently. and corrupt political systems, and eco- opinion, persuasively — Somewhat unexpectedly, the nomic and ecological burdens, that authors’ decision to write in the third sober assessment looks likely to last. defend the fruits of their person as a single voice, rather than as individual narrators, greatly enhances A retired FSO, Richard McKee is the diplomatic labors more their account’s readability and credi- executive director of Diplomatic and bility. But for me, what makes Going Consular Officers, Retired, Inc., and than a decade ago. Critical compelling reading is the the DACOR Bacon House Founda- authors’ forthrightness about how they tion. These views are his own. and other actors on all sides missed, or were powerless to react appropriately to, the confusing diplomatic and polit- have ever negotiated with North ical signals emanating not only from Still a Good Deal Korea. Two of them, Joel S. Wit (now Pyongyang but Seoul, Washington and a senior fellow at the Center for other capitals. Going Critical: The First North Strategic and International Studies) This is emphatically not a book Korean Nuclear Crisis and Robert Gallucci (currently dean of written to settle scores or promote any Joel S. Wit, Daniel B. Poneman and Georgetown University’s School of particular political agenda. Wit, Ambassador Robert L. Gallucci, Foreign Service), were career civil ser- Poneman and Gallucci are scrupulous Brookings Institution Press, 2005, vants at State; the third, Daniel B. in noting the downsides inherent in $22.95, paperback, 474 pages. Poneman, served on the National any negotiations with a regime like Security Council staff and is now a North Korea, including the virtual cer- REVIEWED BY principal in the Scowcroft Group. tainty of cheating, and they freely STEVEN ALAN HONLEY The book is organized chronologi- acknowledge the possibility that they cally, with most chapters covering a miscalculated some of the trade-offs Even though Going Critical: The few months at a time. (June 1994, a along the way. Nonetheless, they First North Korean Nuclear Crisis turning point in the negotiations, takes strongly (and, in this reviewer’s opin- won the American Academy of up two of the 12 chapters.) Once the ion, persuasively) defend the fruits of Diplomacy’s 2005 Douglas Dillon authors have laid out the historical their diplomatic labors. Book Award, I must confess that I background and introduced the main The final section, “The Land of began reading it more as a matter of figures involved in the saga, the book Counterpane” (one of many clever, duty than pleasure. Despite the steadily gathers momentum. Their even literary, chapter titles and sub- importance of its subject — the nego- skill at enabling readers to keep heads throughout the book), surveys tiations leading to the 1994 Agreed straight the many Koreans surnamed the events of the decade following the Framework that led Pyongyang to “Kim” is particularly admirable. signing of the Agreed Framework, freeze, and pledge to dismantle, its While some sections are slow analyzes its breakdown and offers plutonium production program — I going, I would not recommend skip- eight lessons. Generously, the authors expected to slog through a worthy but ping around; there are simply too call them “lessons learned.” But read- dull account, heavy-laden with jargon. many flashes of humor (frequently at ing between the lines, it is not hard to Fortunately, I am delighted to the authors’ own expense) and insight- detect their doubts that the Bush report, Going Critical substantially ful comments along the way that it administration has absorbed them. I exceeded those unfairly low expecta- would be a shame to miss. But if one tions. does give in to that temptation, the Steven Alan Honley, an FSO from The three authors are among the appendix contains a comprehensive 1985 to 1997, is the editor of the handful of American officials who timeline of the negotiations, along Journal.

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REFLECTIONS The Streets of Nuevo Laredo

BY MICHAEL E. KELLY

It is a new day in Nuevo Laredo. eyes are drawn to the papers. I won- ing in single file. I look around the The sun is huge and orange in its der how many died last night? The plaza. It is more brown than green, ascent against the hazy blue backdrop headlines say something about a gun- more dirt than grass. Most of the of desert sky; the temperature is in fight; the pictures show the carnage. shops that line the square are still the 90s and rising. The daily ritual of I glance at the vendor. He raises a shuttered. Somewhere, a radio is sweeping clean the sidewalks has hopeful eyebrow and steers his path playing. Strains of music reach my begun across the city where the closer to me, but I shake my head and ears through the ebb and flow of the buildings are a mix of cinder-block mouth the word no, hoping my son traffic. My son climbs down and slum and refined neo-colonial, strung doesn’t see the pictures, which would kneels beside the ants, his brow fur- together by a tangled web of electri- lead to more questions I can’t answer. rowed as he gently probes their line cal wires and phone cables hung with There is more to this town, though, with a stick. The noise, grit, heat and sun-bleached, wind-torn banners. than violence and bloodshed. There brutality of life swirl around him, yet And shoes. My 4-year-old son looks are churches where people go to wor- he is oblivious to everything but the up and asks: “Daddy, how do the ship, and not just to memorialize the ants. shoes get up there?” In a city where dead. There are hospitals that treat Soon, the sun will be high and an orphanage has to send the kids to the ill, and not just gunshot victims. heavy, the heat oppressive. The noise school in shifts because there aren’t There are shoe stores, bakeries and will crescendo into something akin to enough shoes, I answer truthfully, “I stationers. There are kitchens and a million insects scraping their legs don’t know, son.” dining rooms where food is shared. together, screaming at the shimmer- Then, after the shoes, come the There are schoolchildren in tidy uni- ing heat. By then, we will have piñatas hung from rafters and eaves forms, pensioners chatting on street retreated to the cool stone and tile of the shops that crowd the road. corners, mothers with smiling babies. confines of our home, safe behind the “Look, Dad,” continues the commen- Life here is chaotic, boisterous, col- iron bars and locked doors. tary from my son. “Piñatas. Do you orful and sweet. Even the tree-shad- Later still, the westering sun will see them?” I tug at his hand and ed plazas cannot escape the hubbub diminish, deep red in its descending smile down at him as I duck one of — strolling vendors hawk their wares glory. The shadows will lengthen, the the papier-mâché creations. Out of in loud, gritty voices and food carts edge of the heat will dull, and orange- the corner of my eye, I see a newspa- proffer tacos, roasted ears of corn, golden hues will color the town. per vendor approaching, holding up fresh-cut fruit sprinkled with chili Then, as the mantle of evening is copies of two of the local papers. I powder, and shaved ice raspas. It is a draped across the city and the moon squeeze my son’s hand tightly and city where salad bars are scarce but comes up over the horizon, a sound look for a break in the traffic. My salsa bars abound, and where the like a string of exploding firecrackers aroma of savory carne asada is carried will be heard; and shortly thereafter, Michael E. Kelly, a creative writer through the air on clouds of mesquite the sirens. married to an FSO, lives in Nuevo smoke. Finally, the dust will settle again, Laredo, Mexico with his family. They We sit down on a bench under the fine and thick, on the sidewalks, to be have served in Africa, the Caribbean, shade of some swaying palms. My swept clean on the morrow. Until Europe and Washington, D.C. son sits contentedly, swinging his legs, then, Nuevo Laredo will sleep anoth- Stamp courtesy of the Stamp Corner. while he studies a line of ants march- er fitful sleep. I

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