VOLUME XIII, ISSUE 20 u OCTOBER 2, 2015 IN THIS ISSUE: BRIEFS ............................................................................................................................1 TEHRIK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN EVOLVES UNDER PRESSURE By Farhan Zahid ...............................................................................................................3 THE ISLAMIC STATE’S BALKAN ‘STRONGHOLDS’ A Bosnian house flying By Ebi Spahiu ....................................................................................................................5 the flag of the Islamic State. The jihadist group has focused significantly SAUDI ARABIA’S YEMEN INTERVENTION: A HIGH RISK GAMBLE? on the Balkans recently. By James Brandon and Nicholas A. Heras ....................................................................8 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. BERLIN KNIFE ATTACK, WAVE OF ARRESTS UNDERLINES GERMAN The Terrorism Monitor is RADICALIZATION THREAT designed to be read by policy- makers and other specialists James Brandon yet be accessible to the general public. The opinions expressed A known radical Islamist stabbed and wounded a policewoman in Berlin on September within are solely those of the 17, and was subsequently shot dead (DW, September 17). The attacker, a 41-year-old authors and do not necessarily reflect those of The Jamestown ethnic Kurdish Iraqi man called Rafik Mohamad Yousef, had previously been convicted Foundation. by a German court in 2008 of being a member of Ansar al-Islam, a jihadist group comprised mainly of Iraqi Kurds, and for plotting to kill the Iraqi prime minister on Unauthorized reproduction a visit to Berlin; he was released in 2011 (Berlin Morgenpost, September 17; Rudaw, or redistribution of this or any September 18). The precise motives for the attack, and Yousef’s most recent affiliations, Jamestown publication is strictly are not yet known. prohibited by law. A few days after the stabbing attack, on September 22, police carried out eight counter- terrorism raids, focusing mainly on suspects in the Berlin area (DW, September 22). Among those arrested was a 51-year-old Moroccan man suspected of inciting others to join the Islamic State. Although the police said that the raids were not related to the earlier knife attack, the developments indicate the increasing threat to Germany from jihadists and the authorities’ increasing efforts to monitor radical Islamist circles and to For comments or questions about disrupt groups actively involved in supporting jihadist groups abroad or plotting attacks our publications, please send an at home. email to [email protected], or contact us at: Underlining this trend, also on September 22, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz—BfV), Germany’s internal security 1111 16th St. NW, Suite #320 organization, said that the number of radical Salafists had increased to 7,900, up from Washington, DC • 20036 an estimated 7,500 in June. In addition, BfV President Hans-Georg Maassen stated: Tel: (202) 483-8888 Fax: (202) 483-8337 We are very concerned that Islamists in Germany are trying, under the cover of humanitarian assistance, to exploit the situation of the refugees for their own ends Copyright ©2015 TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TERRORISM MONITOR, VISIT http://www.jamestown.org TerrorismMonitor Volume XIII u Issue 20 u October 2, 2015 and to proselytize and recruit among asylum-seekers VICTORY OVER BOKO HARAM CONTINUES TO (The Local, September 22). ELUDE NIGERIA In addition, Maassen provided updated figures on the James Brandon number of German foreign fighters abroad, saying that an estimated 740 people had left Germany to join jihadists in Nigeria’s conflict with the Boko Haram Islamist militant Syria and Iraq; around one-third of these individuals have group continues to be marked by a mix of successes and returned to Germany, and about 120 have been killed. The setbacks, with the group continuing to prove itself an government has also begun prosecuting those who have adaptable and wily adversary. For instance, in the last few returned from Syria, particularly those involved with the weeks, the government has scored a number of considerable Islamic State. For instance, also in September, the authorities localized victories against the group. On September 23, the charged a 25-year-old German individual, known legally government announced that its troops had continued to as “Nils D,” for traveling to Syria to join the Islamic State advance against Boko Haram in parts of Borno State, the in October 2013, and subsequently receiving firearms longstanding heartland of the group’s Islamist insurgency. and explosives training (Berlin Kurier, September 9). He The government claimed to have captured the group’s returned to Germany in November 2014, and was arrested “kingpin” in the area, Bulama Modu, arrested 43 suspected two months later (DW, January 10). militants, freed 241 women and children being held prisoner by the militants and seized arms and ammunition (Premium Meanwhile, in the Middle East itself, Germany has continued Times [Abuja], September 23). Separately, across the border to provide some of the most significant European support in northern Cameroon on the same day, Cameroonian for forces fighting against the Islamic State (particularly the forces said they had killed 17 suspected militants in a series Kurds), most recently training Iraqi peshmerga forces on of operations (Punch [Lagos], September 23). mitigating chemical weapon attacks (Rudaw, September 18). This came after the government confirmed instances Simultaneously, the Nigerian government has continued to of the Islamic State using mustard gas against Kurdish give the impression that the defeat of the group is imminent. fighters. Adding urgency to both the German government’s A senior presidential advisor, on September 23, tweeted a efforts in Iraq and its actions against the growing number of message ascribed to the country’s president, Muhammadu Islamist radicals at home is the flow of migrants and refugees Buhari, that: “Boko Haram’s reign of terror in parts of the expected into Germany in the coming months and years country will be finally over very soon as the ongoing military from mainly Muslim parts of the Middle East; an estimated onslaught against the terrorist sect will continue relentlessly 800,000 people will arrive this year (Der Spiegel, August until total victory is achieved” (Twitter, September 23; Punch 31). To date, Germany has generally been more successful [Lagos], September 23). Similar rhetoric has come from the in integrating Muslim immigrants than other European ministry of defence. Colonel Rabe Abubakar, the ministry countries. However, this is partly because up until now the spokesperson, in response to an apparent audio message vast majority of German Muslims have generally originated released by Boko Haram leader Abubakr Shekau, said in relatively more developed countries with a long history that: “Our candid advice to Shekau or his ghost, cohorts or of secularism, such as Turkey, Iraqi Kurdistan and a range impersonators is to toe the line of their fellow comrades and of Balkan states; the flow of new migrants from Iraq, Syria surrender now as there is no more hiding place for him or and elsewhere, including states without a similarly strong his criminal gang to operate freely,” adding that the “era of secular tradition, will undoubtedly pose new challenges to cheap propaganda is over and in no distance time Nigerians the German government, including in the sphere of political and the whole world will know who is saying the truth” radicalization. (Premium Times [Abuja], September 22). On the ground, however, evidence of solid Nigerian gains against Boko Haram are harder to find. On September 20, the group carried out one of its most significant attacks in months, killing around 85 people in the northeast city of Maiduguri, in Borno State (Vanguard [Lagos], September 21). The attacks mainly targeted a mosque and people watching a football game on television. In further evidence that the group remains strong in Borno State, the government banned the use of cars, public transportation, donkeys and 2 TerrorismMonitor Volume XIII u Issue 20 u October 2, 2015 camels in the state over the Eid al-Adha Islamic holiday Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan Evolves in order to reduce the potential for militant attacks (BBC, September 24). Moreover, in addition, between July and Under Pressure August, the Nigerian authorities arrested 20 suspected Boko Haram leaders in southern parts of the country, suggesting Farhan Zahid that the group may be planning to extend its operations to these regions, including the economically critical city of The recent attack by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on Lagos, which have largely been unaffected by the conflict a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) camp at Badaber, located 10 so far. A Department of State Service (DSS) spokesman miles from Peshawar, fully displayed the jihadist group’s said that “the sudden influx of Boko Haram members into professional, yet highly violent, nature. Dressed in uniforms Lagos State points to the determination of the sect to extend of the Frontier Constabulary (a paramilitary force), 14 its nefarious terrorist activities to the state and in fact, militants breached the security parameter of the PAF camp other parts of the country” (This Day Live [Lagos], August and then entered from two different points in the early hours 31). In a further indication that the