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Vorhaben Iic – Solare Strahlungsenergie IV Inhaltsverzeichnis

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Vorhaben Iic – Solare Strahlungsenergie IV Inhaltsverzeichnis Vorbereitung und Begleitung der Erstellung des Erfah- rungsberichts 2014 gemäß § 65 EEG im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie Vorhaben IIc Solare Strahlungsenergie Wissenschaftlicher Bericht Projektleitung: Tobias Kelm Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg Juli 2014 Aufraggeber: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie Scharnhorststr. 34-37 10115 Berlin Projektleitung: Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg Fachgebiet Systemanalyse Industriestr. 6 70619 Stuttgart Tobias Kelm [email protected] 0711 – 7870 250 Bearbeiter: Tobias Kelm, Maike Schmidt, Michael Taumann, Andreas Püttner, Hen- ning Jachmann, Michael Capota Kapitel 1, 2, 3.1 bis 3.7, 3.11, 3.12, 5 Unterauftragnehmer: Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik Königstor 59 34119 Kassel Bearbeiter: Johannes Dasenbrock, Heike Barth, Raphael Spiekermann, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Martin Braun, Dr.-Ing. Stefan Bofinger Kapitel 3.8 bis 3.12, 5 Bosch & Partner GmbH Lister Damm 1 30163 Hannover Bearbeiter: Dr. Dieter Günnewig, Michael Püschel, Daniel Hochgürtel, Sheila Fett Kapitel 4, 5 GfK SE Nordwestring 101 90419 Nürnberg Katja Sporer Stuttgart, 20. Mai 2014 Vorhaben IIc – Solare Strahlungsenergie IV Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis ....................................................................................................... IV Abbildungsverzeichnis .................................................................................................. VII Tabellenverzeichnis ...................................................................................................... XII Abkürzungsverzeichnis ................................................................................................ XIV 1 Einleitung ................................................................................................................ 1 2 Marktentwicklung.................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Entwicklung von Zubau, Bestand und Größenverteilung ................................. 2 2.2 Entwicklungen im Freiflächensegment ............................................................ 5 2.3 Entwicklungen außerhalb des EEG ................................................................. 6 2.4 Globale Entwicklung von Angebot und Nachfrage ........................................... 7 2.4.1 Nachfrageseite .................................................................................. 7 2.4.2 Angebotsseite ..................................................................................10 3 Preise, Kosten, Wirtschaftlichkeit, Vermarktung .................................................20 3.1 Preisentwicklung ............................................................................................20 3.2 Kostenentwicklung .........................................................................................22 3.3 Referenzanlagen und Berechnungsparameter ...............................................24 3.3.1 Definition von Referenzanlagen und Berechnungsparametern .........24 3.3.2 Systempreise und deren Zusammensetzung ...................................25 3.3.3 Finanzierungsstruktur und Zinsen ....................................................26 3.3.4 Stromerträge und weitere Eingangsparameter .................................27 3.4 Stromgestehungskosten, Erlöse und Wirtschaftlichkeitsbewertung für das Jahr 2014 .......................................................................................................29 3.5 Entwicklung der Förderkosten (EEG-Differenzkosten)....................................39 3.6 Analyse der Auswirkungen des atmenden Deckels auf die Wirtschaftlichkeit von Neuanlagen .............................................................................................42 3.7 Wertschöpfungsaspekte .................................................................................42 3.8 Analyse möglicher Vermarktungsmodelle innerhalb und außerhalb des EEG: Eigenverbrauch und Direktvermarktung ................................................44 3.8.1 Marktrecherche ................................................................................44 3.8.2 Kosten- und Erlösbetrachtung ..........................................................51 3.9 Analyse der Entwicklung der Netzparität und der damit verbundenen strukturellen Auswirkungen ............................................................................54 3.9.1 Ökonomische Wirkung der Netzparität .............................................54 3.9.2 Entwicklung des Eigenverbrauchs ....................................................63 3.9.3 Energiewirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des PV-Eigenverbrauchs .......65 3.10 Vorschläge zur Markt- und Systemintegration der Photovoltaik ......................66 3.11 Perspektive der PV-Förderung .......................................................................68 3.11.1 Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der PV im heutigen Marktmodell ....................68 3.11.2 Mögliche Auswirkungen einer Nullvergütung ab 52 GW ...................69 3.11.3 Systemintegrierbarkeit der PV nach 52 GW .....................................71 3.12 Handlungsoptionen ........................................................................................71 Vorhaben IIc – Solare Strahlungsenergie V 4 Ökologische Aspekte ............................................................................................74 4.1 Flächenkategorien und Flächengröße – Auswertungen der Datenbank (Kurzfassung) .................................................................................................74 4.2 PV-Freiflächenanlagen und Auswirkungen auf Ökologie, Natur und Landschaft (Kurzfassung) ..............................................................................79 5 Zusammenfassung und Handlungsempfehlungen .............................................86 5.1 Sachstand ......................................................................................................86 5.2 Handlungsempfehlungen ...............................................................................92 Anhang .........................................................................................................................99 A.1 Photovoltaik im Kontext des EEG ...................................................................99 A.1.1 Aktuelle Vergütungsvoraussetzungen und -struktur .......................................99 A.1.2 Darstellung der bisherigen Vergütungsentwicklung ......................................100 A.2 Marktentwicklung .........................................................................................103 A.2.1 Stand der Technik und Entwicklungsperspektiven ........................................103 A.2.2 Eckdaten zu den Szenarien .........................................................................105 A.2.3 Ergänzende Daten zum Anlagenbestand von PV-Anlagen ........................... 107 A.2.4 Freiflächenanlagen .......................................................................................108 A.2.5 Fassadenanlagen .........................................................................................115 A.2.6 Weltmarkt, Angebot und Nachfrage..............................................................116 A.2.7 Unternehmensanalyse .................................................................................118 A.3 Ökonomische Aspekte .................................................................................122 A.3.1 Lernkurve von PV-Modulen ..........................................................................122 A.3.2 Zukünftige Entwicklung von Modul- und Systempreisen ...............................122 A.3.3 Marktwert des PV-Stroms ............................................................................125 A.3.4 Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der PV im heutigen Marktmodell ................................125 A.3.5 Analyse der Vermarktungsmodelle ...............................................................129 A.3.5.1Marktrecherche ...........................................................................................129 A.3.5.1.1Eigenverbrauch ........................................................................................132 A.3.5.1.2Marktintegrationsmodell ...........................................................................134 A.3.5.2Kosten- und Erlösbetrachtung .....................................................................135 A.3.5.2.1Lastmanagement-Systeme ......................................................................135 A.3.5.2.2Strom-Wärme-Anwendungen ...................................................................136 A.3.5.2.3Speicher ...................................................................................................137 A.3.5.3Szenarien für die Entwicklung der Netzparität auf Basis von Simulation und statistischer Analysen ..................................................................................140 A.3.5.3.1Simulation von PV-Einspeiseprofilen ........................................................141 A.3.5.3.2Bestimmung möglicher Eigenverbrauch ...................................................144 A.3.5.3.3Szenarien für die Entwicklung der Netzparität auf Basis von Simulation und statistischer Analysen ............................................................................146 A.3.5.3.4Weitere Unsicherheiten ............................................................................149 A.3.5.4Entwicklung des Eigenverbrauchs
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