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Local Manufacturing Potential for Solar Technology Components in Egypt Public Disclosure Authorized MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA) | ENERGY AND EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE | THE WORLD BANK GROUP Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized MENA ENERGY SERIES | REPORT NO. 95144-EG Public Disclosure Authorized Local Manufacturing Potential for Solar Technology Components in Egypt Public Disclosure Authorized MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA ENERGY AND EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE THE WORLD BANK GROUP Local Manufacturing Potential for Solar Technology Components in Egypt MENA ENERGY SERIES | REPORT NO. 95144-EG MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA ENERGY AND EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE THE WORLD BANK GROUP Copyright © 2015 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK GROUP 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing July 2015 This is a publication by the Middle East and North Africa Energy and Environment Unit (MENA). The materials in this publication are copyrighted, and requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the MENA Program Manager at the address shown above. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, or its affiliated organizations, or to members of its board of executive directors for the countries they represent, to donors, or MENA. The World Bank and MENA do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement of acceptance of such boundaries. Photo Credits Images: ©The World Bank Group, ©ESMAP, ©stockbyte, and ©StockXchng Production Credits Production Editor: Marjorie K. Araya, ESMAP Designer: Studio Grafik Reproduction: The World Bank Group Contents Acronyms an Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ..........................................................................................................................................................xii Context and Objectives ...................................................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1 | Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................3 1.1 Rationale ...........................................................................................................................................................3 1.2 Project Pipeline and Demand ............................................................................................................................3 1.3 Industrial and Technical Background .................................................................................................................5 1.4 Existing Industrial Sector ...................................................................................................................................6 1.5 Production Factors ............................................................................................................................................6 1.6 Status of Global Solar Component Value Chain .................................................................................................8 1.7 Solar Industries That Have a Potential to Be Developed in Egypt .....................................................................10 1.8 Market Volume ................................................................................................................................................20 1.9 Aggregated Economic Costs and Benefits Associated with an Enlarged Solar Sector in Egypt ........................22 1.10 Recommendations for the Development of Solar Industries in Egypt ..............................................................25 1.11 Synergistic Actions to Build on Kom Ombo CSP Project .................................................................................28 Part A | Summary Assessment of International Solar Component Manufacturing Value Chains and Outlook for Their Robustness .....................................................................................................31 Chapter 2 | Solar Component Manufacturing Value Chains ............................................................................................32 2.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................................................32 2.2 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Value Chain .................................................................................................34 2.3 Photovoltaic (PV) Value Chain ..........................................................................................................................45 2.4 Current Status of Manufacturing Value Chains .................................................................................................52 Part B | Detailed Assessment of Egypt’s Existing Manufacturing Base and Its Potential to Participate or Dominate the Solar Component Manufacturing Value Chains ..........................................................................55 Chapter 3 | Egypt’s Manufacturing Base and Potential to Participate in Solar Component Manufacturing Value Chains ..........56 3.1 Country Context ..............................................................................................................................................56 3.2 Egyptian Industrial Sector ................................................................................................................................61 3.3 Egypt’s Manufacturing Competitiveness ..........................................................................................................69 Chapter 4 | Potential Value Chains in which Egypt’s Manufacturing Sector Could Participate .........................................79 4.1 Attractiveness of Egypt As a Country ..............................................................................................................79 4.2 Entry Barriers and Key Factors in the Value Chains ..........................................................................................81 4.3 Industries Suggested ......................................................................................................................................93 4.4 Insight of the Suggested Value Chains: CSP Industries....................................................................................93 4.5 Insight Into the Suggested Value Chains: PV Industries ...................................................................................97 Chapter 5 | Demand Forecast ......................................................................................................................................100 5.1 Installed Capacity ..........................................................................................................................................100 5.2 Market Share ................................................................................................................................................101 5.3 Market Volume ..............................................................................................................................................102 Contents | i Part C | Existing and Potential Applications of Solar Technology, Solar Components, and/or Solar Energy in Residential, Commercial, Governmental, and Industrial Sectors .............................................107 Chapter 6 | Existing and Potential Application for CSP Technologies ............................................................................108 6.1 Existing Applications .....................................................................................................................................108 6.2 Potential Applications ....................................................................................................................................108 Chapter 7 | Existing and Potential Application for PV Technologies ..............................................................................120 7.1 Existing Applications .....................................................................................................................................120 7.2 Potential Applications ....................................................................................................................................122 Part D | Potential Economic Costs and Benefits Result from Enlarging Solar Component Manufacturing in Egypt 127 Chapter 8 | Potential Economic Costs and Benefits .....................................................................................................128 8.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................128 8.2 Assumptions .................................................................................................................................................130
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